Sunrise 6:15 AM   Sunset 7:50 PM Moonrise 1:45 PM   Moonset 3:19 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS61 KBGM 182239 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 639 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

SYNOPSIS

Drier yet cloudy tonight into Friday morning before another cold front ushers in more showers Friday afternoon and night. We turn breezy and cooler for the weekend with some rain or even snow showers possible on Saturday. A dry stretch finally ensues Sunday through Tuesday with cool temperatures trending milder through the work week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Early this evening we are watching some drizzle move through the region. So expanded the coverage of drizzle with this update. A general dreary night is still expected. Previous discussion below.

Our warm front remains straddled near I-81 and clouds have broken for some sun over the Finger Lakes and western areas of the Southern Tier which have entered into the warm sector.
Temperatures have responded nicely to the warmer air mass rising into the upper 50s to even low 60s. However, areas in the Catskills, NE PA, and Mohawk Valley, which remain on the east side of the front, continue to be socked in clouds thanks to high pressure building into northern New England resulting in cold air damming. The strong low-level inversion seen the 12 UTC ALY sounding is indicative of a cold air wedged lodged near the sfc and temperatures will continue to struggle to warm our of 40s, especially as areas of drizzle reinforce the cool temperatures. The NYS mesonet temperature maps highlight the noticeably different air masses east and west of I-81 nicely.

Guidance suggests that light showers/drizzle in the Catskills and Mohawk Valley should gradually dissipate this afternoon but showers have developed along the stalled warm front near the I-81 corridor as increased sun and weak instability have generated showers near the wind shift boundary.

Otherwise, still expecting a warm spring day for the Finger Lakes with high temperatures reaching into the mid-60s as breaks of sun combine with a swath of mild 850hPa isotherms ranging +6C to +6.5C noses into this region. Temperatures trend downwards heading east with the Catskills barely reaching into the low 50s. NE PA including the the Susquehanna River Valley will struggle to break for sun with highs only reaching into the upper 40s to low 50s. The surrounding higher terrain in NE PA will coolest where overcast skies prevent much warmer beyond the mid-40s.

Heading into tonight, any partial clearing early on will quickly fade behind cloudy skies as Canadian high pressure continues to build into northern New England. Despite the increased low-level moisture, guidance maintains a mainly dry forecast tonight as our washed-out warm front lifts eastward and upper level ridging and mid-level dry air build into further into the Northeast.
However, some pockets of drizzle may linger, especially in NE PA and the Catskills, at least through Midnight as low-level southeast flow upslopes the terrain. Otherwise, we will not see a large diurnal change tonight given clouds. Overnight temperatures only cooling into the mid to upper 30s in the Catskills, Mohawk Valley and NE PA with low to mid 40s in the Southern Tier, Fingers Lakes, and towards Syracuse.

Cloudy skies continue tomorrow with temperatures turning milder in comparison to today with much of the region warming into the 50s to low 60s as shortwave ridging continues overhead. Upstream we have a closed upper level low positioned north of the Great Lakes with its associated occluded sfc low near the Hudson Bay.
An attendant cold front will be tracking eastward from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. A few weak shortwave embedded in the southwest flow aloft look to allow a secondary sfc low to develop along the thermal/moisture gradient as the front reaches west/central NY. Overall moisture is not very impressive but with the secondary sfc low will likely provide additional forcing for showers to continue and spread into the Twin Tiers, the Finger Lakes eastwards towards the Catskills, NE PA, and the Mohawk Valley. Best chance for showers looks to be tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening and have maintained widespread chance POPs with even likely POPs west of I-81 by 18 - 21 UTC.
Overall QPF is light with around a tenth expected. Higher amounts ranging 0.25 - 0.40 inches expected in Oneida County where some lake enhanced moisture can contribute to increased QPF.

The boundary looks to weaken as it reaches the Catskills Fri night with the thermal and moisture gradient becoming less defined. The boundary may slow down overnight so have maintained slight chance and low end chance POPs east of the Susquehanna River into the southeast Catskills. Otherwise, clearing should ensue behind the front as westerly flow ushers in a drier air mass. Overnight lows turn cooler dropping into the mid to upper 30s with low 40s in valley areas thanks to some radiational cooling. Winds become a bit elevated behind the front becoming sustained 5 - 12kts overnight.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Expect a chilly weekend as our large scale upper level closed low tracks towards the Hudson Bay with associated secondary shortwaves dig into the Northeast. For Saturday, weak high pressure in the morning will exit to the east as a secondary cold front will be on the approach for the afternoon thanks to a more potent shortwave trough tracking through Ontario into the Northeast. There is some mid-level moisture with the front and combined with additional lake moisture, a few afternoon rain showers are possible and we maintained slight chance POPS to low end chance POPs. We placed the highest POPs near and north of the NY Thruway into the southern Tug Hill and for the northern Fingers Lakes given closer proximity to Lake Ontario. Best chance for showers will be in the afternoon as the front pushes through the region from northwest to southeast. After temperatures rise into the upper 40s to low-mid 50s by early to mid-afternoon, west to northwest winds turn gusty in the wake of the front reaching up to 20-25kts with temperatures cooling into the 40s by sunset.
Deterministic guidance is not too enthused with QPF generally under a tenth of inch given the incoming front should just generate isolated to scattered showers with some locally higher amounts from lake enhancements possible. The 500hPa cool pool associated with the incoming shortwave is rather impressive nearing -25C to -30C so would not be surprised if some sleet or graupel is mixed in the rain showers, especially late afternoon as temperatures cool into the 40s.

Clearing skies continues Saturday night with westerly winds staying a bit breezy overnight as large scale highs pressure centered in the Central Plains will builds eastward. It will be a chilly night with temperatures cooling into the low to mid 30s thanks to some radiational cooling.

We close out the weekend with high pressure maintaining mainly sunny skies and seasonably cool temperatures for Sunday as northwest flow continues aloft. High temperatures will stay cool given ongoing cold air advection only warming into the low to mid 50s...cooler in the upper 40s in the Catskills. Westerly winds will stay breezy as yet another shortwave and reinforcing cold front track through Ontario into northern New England. The winds will make it feel a bit cooler despite the sunshine as deep boundary layer mixing support gusts up to 20-25kts once again. Winds gradually weaken overnight but stay a bit elevated.
Overnight lows drop into the low to mid 30s under clear skies.
Leaned on the cooler end of guidance for Sunday night lows given the more favorable raditional cooling conditions.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Sunshine and pleasant spring temperatures are in store for Monday as large scale high pressure stays in control. West to northwest winds remain a bit breezy for the first half of the day but trend downwards during the afternoon as high pressure shifts into New England. As some weak return southwest flow ensues, high temperatures should trend warmer compared to the previous few days with highs reaching into the mid to upper 50s with even low 60s in NE PA and valley areas within the Twin Tiers.

Pleasant and even milder weather ensues for Tuesday as southwest return flow ushers in an even milder air mass with temperatures trending into the upper 50s with more of the region reaching into the low to even mid-60s.

Another cold front looks to impact the region Tuesday night into Wednesday with chances for rain returning. Still uncertainty on the exact timing of the front and moisture fields but maintained widespread chance and even likely POPs given good run to run consistency on this system occurring and decent moisture fields and thermal gradient along the boundary. The parent shortwave is rather potent and guidance shows it taking on a negative tilt as it tracks into Ontartio but there remains discrepancies on its exact track. Despite the strong forcing, this system looks fast moving and progressive so any hydro issues appear unlikely. Drier and cooler conditions return for Thursday.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Showers continue to crawl across the region this afternoon in response to low pressure encroaching upon the region from the west.
MVFR to IFR conditions prevail across the TAF sites as a result with low clouds socked in across the region.

Throughout the rest of the afternoon and into this evening, showers will gradually decrease, becoming scattered to spotty in nature.
However, MVFR to IFR ceilings will persist at all terminals with the exception of KSYR through the remainder of the 18z TAF cycle. KSYR should, based on latest guidance, trend towards VFR ceilings by the last 8-10 hours of the 18z TAF period.

Showers crossing through terminal domains throughout the morning and early afternoon thus far have dropped visibility into the MVFR to IFR thresholds. However, as showers become lighter and more scattered throughout the afternoon and evening, VFR visibility should be maintained even with passing precipitation. Of course, MVFR visibility can't be ruled out with embedded, heavier showers but since this would be a fairly localized, low probability, kept this out of the TAFs at this time.

Winds throughout the 18z TAF period will be light and variable to start, becoming breezy out of the southeast by the end of the period. Sustained speeds this afternoon and tonight will range from 2-5 kt, increasing to 10-12 kt by tomorrow morning with gusts up to about 19-21 kt.

Outlook...

Friday...Lingering restrictions in the morning; perhaps a brief VFR window, then more restrictions as rain showers arrive in the afternoon and evening.

Saturday...Mainly VFR expected. Occasional MVFR CIGs possible for CNY terminals in the afternoon.

Sunday...VFR expected.

Monday...VFR expected.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Binghamton, NY,