Monday, June18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Binghamton, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:25AMSunset 8:44PM Monday June 18, 2018 12:53 PM EDT (16:53 UTC) Moonrise 9:58AMMoonset 11:48PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Binghamton, NY
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location: 42.11, -75.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 181451
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
1051 am edt Mon jun 18 2018

Synopsis
Heat and humidity will both reach their peak today with heat
index values well into the 90s. Thunderstorms will be possible
beginning this afternoon, and especially into evening as a cold
front drops out of canada. Some storms could contain gusty winds
and very heavy downpours. Tuesday will be dry, and temperatures
through midweek will be quite a bit cooler.

Near term through Tuesday
1045 am update... An eventful afternoon and evening may be in
store.

A fair amount of sunshine, along with increasingly hot, humid
conditions prevailed as of late morning. Temperatures were
already well into the 80s to near 90 over portions of the
forecast area as of this writing, with dew points in the lower
70s. Incoming 925 mb temperature dew point combinations of
25c 20c from the west, continue to support highs in the lower
90s, and heat indices locally near 100 this afternoon. Our heat
advisory statement was just refreshed to reflect such.

As for convective potential, isolated storms are already
beginning to fire near lake erie ontario convergence boundaries
as of late morning. As we destabilize this afternoon, and
potentially get impacted by a convectively induced short-wave
from mi southern ont, we expect showers thunderstorms to
increase in coverage across cny pa's northern tier. Initially,
localized strong winds hail would be the main threats.

After perhaps a brief lull in the 5-8 pm time frame, we still
expect a second round of showers storms this evening, just ahead
of the main surface cold front and upper-level short-wave. Given
the incoming anomalously high precipitable water values
(2.25"-2.5") and potential for repeat development (prevailing
flow becoming increasingly parallel to frontal orientation),
heavy rainfall would be the greater threat with the latter round
of storms.

A briefing will be issued this morning to address all near-term
hazards (heat, possible severe storm development, and also
potential heavy rainfall this evening tonight).

Previous discussion... 405 am update... A fairly active period
is anticipated in the very near term; first the combination of
heat and humidity, and then afternoon- evening thunderstorms
capable of gusty winds and very heavy downpours including
possible isolated flash flooding. Things quiet down considerably
after tonight.

Temperatures are starting off mainly in the 60s to lower 70s at
the surface, but anomalously hot and humid air mass has
continued to advect into the region. Rapid warming will occur
after sunrise dissipates the paper-thin surface inversion, and
in pretty short order it will feel rather oppressive. Areawide
heat advisory remains in effect 10am to 8pm, due to combination
of upper 80s-lower 90s temperatures and lower 70s dewpoints
producing heat indices topping mostly in the 95 to 100 degrees
range. The only silver lining on this, will be increasing cloud
cover blowing off from convection well upstream - and eventually
our own convection - as well as a west-southwest wind picking up
to take some of the edge off of the heat.

Thunderstorms late today through this evening will pose a threat
for both gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall, though of those
two the potential for isolated flash flooding appears to be the
larger concern. The atmosphere is streaming a plume of
extremely high precipitable water values exceeding 2 inches,
currently from wisconsin to northern michigan. This will advect
across the saint lawrence seaway today, ahead of a cold front
that will drop south through our region this evening. These
precipitable water values are well above the 90th percentile
for even midsummer let alone mid june. Models depict 850mb
moisture transport late today is 5-6 standard deviations above
normal over our region. While areal average rain amounts will
not be excessive, the individual storms will be very efficient
downpour producers to the point that an inch of rain could very
easily occur in a half hour or less. Progressive nature of the
front should limit coverage of problems, but isolated flash
flooding is a distinct possibility and indeed will probably
occur somewhere within our region. It should be noted and
respected the history of this upstream air mass that will now
move over our area; several instances of flash flooding have
already occurred in the upper midwest-northwestern great lakes
regions.

One complicating factor for the evolution of things today, will
be a shortwave that runs out ahead of the front. Several higher
resolution convection-allowing models are allowing a line of
scattered thunderstorms to develop in early afternoon, which
will then sweep east across the area through mid-late
afternoon. There will still be some dry midlevel air in the
column at this time, which along with modest unidirectional flow
could result in gusty strong to marginally severe gusts under
those cells. Coverage of these cells will be limited, but storms
are nevertheless a possibility this afternoon with this initial
shortwave.

The bigger heavy downpour threat will be this evening as the
cold front pools the highest precipitable water values and
harnesses instability for additional thunderstorms. At this
point it is difficult to tell if the initial shortwave takes
away some energy from the frontal convection, or if instead
exacerbates the potential for isolated flash flooding from some
locations getting more than one heavy downpour. But as
mentioned before, the history and the very anomalously high
moisture of this set up heightens concern that the event could
exceed expectations. If confidence in flooding problems were to
increase, a short-fuse flash flood watch could be hoisted later
today for the most prone locations. At a minimum, urban and poor
drainage water problems can reasonably be expected with the
storms that pass through this afternoon into especially evening.

Strong upper wave in eastern canada, will ultimately drive the
front through the region to the point that for Tuesday, we are
now confident in a dry day with much cooler temperatures. After
lows of mostly 60s-near 70, highs of 70s-lower 80s are
anticipated. More importantly in terms of comfort; dewpoints
will crash into the lower 50s as daytime mixing occurs. Post-
frontal clouds may initially hang around from twin tiers
southward, but trend will be for a mostly sunny sky to overtake
the region from north to south during the day.

Short term Tuesday night through Wednesday
415 am update...

high pressure lingers over the region Tuesday night, then becomes
more diffuse on Wednesday. Medium range models are now suggesting a
bit of a wrinkle in what looked to be a mainly dry week. The frontal
boundary sitting just to our south develops a weak surface wave
along it and surges slightly further north during Wednesday as the
favored entrance region of a 300 mb jet streak dives into the back
side of the upper trof over new england. Not prepared to completely
believe the wettest GFS model, but the ec and canadian nh are also
in some agreement that showers thunderstorms could develop across
nepa, and possibly as far north as the southern tier ny. Will
introduce low probabilities for now just to allude to this
potential.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
415 am update...

a reinforcing high pressure center drops out of east-central canada
on Wednesday night, which is likely to force the frontal boundary
well to our south with no further shower, or thunderstorm problems
through Friday. Seasonable, to slightly under the average june
temperatures are expected during this time. A more pronounced low
pressure area is forecast to lift out of the plains states and into
the northeast this weekend. Influence from the leading warm front
should be reaching cny nepa by early Saturday morning, but there are
timing differences among the big 3 models at this range. Isentropic
lift may bring some leading showers in during the morning, but will
lean with the better chances for storms in the afternoon after some
heating. General slow movement of this system will keep conditions
unsettled through Sunday with the cold front expected to swing
through from Sunday-Sunday night. Temperatures in the upper 70s to
low 80s during the day with 50s-60s at night.

Aviation 15z Monday through Friday
12z update...

vfr conditions will persist through the morning, with variable
or light south wind becoming west-southwest 8-12 knots during
the day including gusts approaching 20 knots. Heat and humidity
will cause instability this afternoon, and while not in tafs due
to lack of confidence coverage, a scattered line of
thunderstorms may cross the area between 17z-23z as a weak wave
passes. Watch for amendments should confidence increase. However,
higher likelihood for convection exists along a cold front
dropping southward across the ny terminals between 23z Monday-
04z Tuesday, and thus thunder was included in the tafs during
that period. For kavp, timing more likely to be 03z-06z. A
period of MVFR some fuel alternate ceilings will occur for a
time behind the front, but improvement will not be far behind.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Friday... MainlyVFR, though a small chance for
a thunderstorm brief restriction at kavp Wednesday.

Climate
High temperatures are expected today to fall a few degrees
below records at all three climate sites. The forecasted high at
avoca is 92 where the record is 93 set back in 1994. At
binghamton, the record is 92 set back in 1957 and at syracuse
the record is 96 set back in 1957. High temperatures at
binghamton and syracuse are forecasted to be around 90.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for paz038>040-043-
044-047-048-072.

Ny... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for nyz009-015>018-
022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

Synopsis... Mdp
near term... Mlj mdp
short term... Jab
long term... Jab
aviation... Mdp
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 99 mi54 min W 12 G 17 87°F 1010.6 hPa (-0.6)70°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Binghamton, Binghamton Regional Airport, NY9 mi61 minW 1010.00 miA Few Clouds86°F71°F61%1013.7 hPa

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Last 24hrS565W4S5W4SW4SW3S4SW7SW6SW8SW6SW7SW6SW7SW6SW7SW8SW7SW8W9W12W10
1 day ago55--W63N5NW4W3CalmCalmS4S3CalmNE4SE3E3SE3S3SE3W4W4Calm43
2 days agoN16
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NW10N9N7N4NW3NW4NW4SE3W4CalmW5W5CalmW3W5CalmNW5NW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.