Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Binghamton, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 5:07PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 4:22 AM EST (09:22 UTC) Moonrise 8:21PMMoonset 9:17AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Binghamton, NY
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location: 42.11, -75.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 230908
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
408 am est Wed jan 23 2019

Synopsis
A low pressure system lifting will bring a wintry mix to the
region today. Initial snow sleet and freezing rain with the warm
front this morning, gradually changes to rain during the
afternoon from west to east. However, after mainly rain tonight, a
cold front will change rain back to snow showers late Thursday.

Slick roads could result from these multiple precipitation types.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
400 am update...

a winter weather advisory remains in effect areawide, with
counties having different starting and ending times based on
expected evolution of icy wintry mix to rain scenario.

Arctic air mass has been in place the last few days, and it will
take awhile for the stable cold air in the low levels underneath
the inversion to scour out. However, that sharp inversion is
also providing a smooth surface for which to have a strong low
level jet out of the south-southwest, quickly surging warm air
and moisture across the region aloft. Two concerns with this;
one is that temperatures will be warm enough just a few thousand
feet off the ground, to result in freezing rain sleet becoming
the primary precipitation types. Also, the very cold ground from
the arctic air mass will be slower to respond than the air
temperatures. Known road temperatures are only in the mid teens
to lower 20s at this hour. This will rise somewhat as the day
carries on, but not in time to prevent icing from occurring on
untreated roads even as air temperatures get a bit above
freezing.

Dewpoints remain very low early this morning, and thus
snow-to-sleet may occur first due to wetbulbing, especially
with the initial wave of precipitation - mostly virga at first -
in the northern zones. Eventually though, the entire area is
prone to getting at least a light glaze of ice today. For the
eastern southern tier-upper susquehanna regions of ny and
points south including northeast pa-catskills, this will
likely occur mostly after the morning commute. For the central
southern tier-finger lakes-ny thruway corridor however, the
first light snow-ice may include some of the commute even
though most will occur after. Temperatures rise through the
day, though as mentioned before, freezing rain may linger even
as the air gets above 32 degrees simply due to the very cold
ground. Ice amounts will range from a trace to a tenth of an
inch, with the higher elevations most prone to getting that
tenth. It may take until early evening for the ice threat to
finally wane in the higher terrain east of i-81. As for snow,
very little accumulation if any is expected; well under an inch
except northern oneida county may get an inch or so. By 6 pm,
temperatures will be mostly mid 30s to near 40, and rising; but
poconos-catskills may still be close to freezing.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Thursday
405 am update...

main concerns are following details of rain changing back to
snow, especially Thursday; also stream rises that could lead to
isolated ice jams in response to rain and window of melting
snow, especially the poconos-catskills part of our area.

It is not totally out of the question for pockets of the
catskills to still be dealing with patchy ice this evening.

However, temperatures will continue to rise overnight, to the
point that our region will be in the upper 30s to upper 40s by
dawn Thursday. Moisture will continue to stream across the area,
as the system slows down awaiting a new wave of low pressure
along the incoming cold front. Also, right entrance region of
the upper jet will be right over us, causing forced ascent. When
adding today through tonight, total precipitation - mostly in
the form of rain - will range from several tenths of an inch to
nearly an inch, with heaviest amounts where orographic lift
enhances rainfall. This includes higher elevations of northeast
pa, to catskills, as well as northern oneida county.

With snowmelt from temperature surge, especially poconos-
catskills, in addition the rainfall; we could see pretty solid
rises in rivers and streams. We are not expecting flooding but
will have to keep a close eye on things, and ice jams are not
out the question where recent arctic air has allowed to build
ice in smaller channels. That is, rising levels may lift and
break the ice, potentially allowing jamming to occur as it flows
downstream and comes across obstacles sharp streambed turns.

Surface cold front will advance west to east across the area
Thursday, but jet support will continue aloft with precipitation
starting to take an anafront nature. That is, forced ascent will
cause precipitation for a ways behind the front instead of just
ahead of it. Rain will thus mix with and change to snow as the
cold air advects in and temperatures fall through the day. Brief
window of freezing rain and sleet is not totally out of the
question since the cold air near the ground will outpace it
aloft, scooping underneath. Overall though, we are expecting a
small coating to an inch or two of snow behind the rain,
especially in central new york. Northeast pa-sullivan county ny
should at least see brief snow showers on the back edge of the
precipitation, but accumulations of up to a slushy inch will
probably be limited to the highest terrain of the northern
tier and catskills. Precipitation will be primarily east of
interstate 81 in the afternoon. By early evening, temperatures
should range from mid-upper 20s northwest, to lower 30s
southeast.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
130 am update...

long term period features seasonably cold air and a series of
weak disturbances zipping through the area, with lake effect
snow showers between.

Low passes well north of the area Friday with snow showers but
more importantly a fresh supply of arctic air for the weekend.

Broad upper trough remains in place and allows a stronger system
and yet another cold front for Sunday, this reinforces the lake
effect into Monday. Milder air and yet another wave arrives for
Tuesday with more snow.

Made only minor adjustments to the temps and pop grids to the
latest guidance as the grids were in good shape. Previous
discussion continues below.

Previous discussion...

Saturday, lake effect winds down as a ridge of surface high
pressure moves into the mid atlantic states. This will push the
low level winds off of lake ontario back to wsw. The band of les
will shift out of oneida county. Temperatures will continue to
be below normal with highs in the teens for cny and around 20
for nepa and sullivan county ny.

Saturday night through Tuesday: in general, no significant
storms are expected during this period at this time. Just a
couple weak disturbances that will move through the area with
chances of snow showers.

Beginning with Saturday night, most of the area looks
dry with the exception being over cny where there will be a
chance of snow showers ahead of the first of the
aforementioned weak disturbances during this time period. Only
put low chance pops across cny for now as there is some model
disagreement. The ECMWF is much slower and therefore keeps the
entire area dry while the GFS and canadian support a faster
system with snow showers approaching cny. This weak system will
continue to move eastward on Sunday and Sunday night, bringing
a more widespread chance of snow showers. Then a brief dry
period (looks like the first half of Monday right now), before
the next system approaches late in the day Monday. Therefore,
put chance pops for snow showers across the western half of the
area with much lower chances further east, where it may remain
dry all day. These snow shower chances continue Monday night and
into Tuesday, mainly because of uncertainty in the timing of
this system. Another factor to keep an eye on is the track of
this system. Model guidance is suggesting at this time that the
system may track west of the area over the great lakes. Should
this westward trend continue, rain may be able to mix in over
portions of the area, mainly east. For now kept p-type as just
snow, but this may need to be updated as we get closer.

In terms of temperatures, near normal highs for this time of the
year are expected Sunday-Tuesday, generally in the 20s to lower
30s. Single digits to lower teens for lows expected Saturday
night with generally teens to lower 20s Sunday and Monday
nights.

Aviation 09z Wednesday through Sunday
Messy system with multiple precipitation types and low level
wind shear this TAF period.VFR conditions exist at 06z but the
warm front of the system will cause an initial snow-sleet mix
to break out for ksyr-krme towards dawn and briefly kbgm-kith
between 10z-14z, including some ifr visibility ksyr-krme. The
ny terminals will then experience freezing rain and MVFR
ceilings, changing to plain rain with time this afternoon yet
with ceilings further lowering into fuel alternate required
levels. Precipitation at kavp will be primarily rain, starting
this afternoon, also with lowering ceilings. There is a small
chance that kavp could begin with brief freezing rain if rain
starts prior to 18z. At all terminals, a strong south-southwest
low level jet of 35-40 knots will increase to 40-55 knots and
thus llws will be present. Krme-ksyr surface winds will be
southeast around 10 knots or less, except ksyr eventually veers
more southerly 10-15 knots with higher gusts later today into
evening. Surface winds at remainder of terminals generally south
or south-southwest 10-15 knots with gusts into the 20s knots,
except lighter at kavp.

Outlook...

late Wednesday night through Thursday... Rain gradually changing
back to snow on back side of system; restrictions likely.

Thursday night through Saturday night... Restrictions possible
in snow showers, especially the ny terminals.

Sunday... Chance of snow and associated restrictions.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... Winter weather advisory from 7 am this morning to 5 pm est
this afternoon for paz038-039.

Winter weather advisory from 10 am this morning to 7 pm est
this evening for paz040-043-044-047-048-072.

Ny... Winter weather advisory from 7 am this morning to 5 pm est
this afternoon for nyz044>046-055>057.

Winter weather advisory from 10 am this morning to 7 pm est
this evening for nyz062.

Winter weather advisory until 7 pm est this evening for nyz009.

Winter weather advisory until 3 pm est this afternoon for
nyz015>018-022>025-036-037.

Synopsis... Mdp
near term... Mdp
short term... Mdp
long term... Bjg dgm tac
aviation... Mdp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 99 mi35 min SSE 15 G 23 26°F 1020.1 hPa11°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Binghamton, Binghamton Regional Airport, NY9 mi30 minSSE 810.00 miUnknown Precip20°F6°F55%1024.1 hPa

Wind History from BGM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW11NW9
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NW3NW4W4CalmCalmSW6SW6SW4SE6SE7SE6SE8S8S8S7S10S9S9S8S8S8S8
1 day agoNW17
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2 days agoNE5N10N10NW11NW12
G19
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.