Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fleischmanns, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 7:20PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 3:09 PM EDT (19:09 UTC) Moonrise 7:55AMMoonset 9:21PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fleischmanns, NY
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location: 42.13, -74.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 291752
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
152 pm edt Wed mar 29 2017

Synopsis
Morning clouds will give way to increasing breaks of
sunshine today with temperatures close to normal. After a dry and
seasonable day on Thursday, another storm system will impact the
region for Thursday night through Friday night with rain and snow.

Although valley areas will only see limited accumulations due to
mixing with rain, higher terrain areas may see at least a moderate
accumulation of snow.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
As of 142 pm, still an extensive stratocu canopy north of the
mid-hudson valley. NAM forecast soundings and mos, as well as
visible satellite imagery upstream, suggest most locations will
struggle to break out of the clouds today. Have upped cloud
cover a bit through 21z, then a clearing trend thereafter. Have
also taken high temps down a couple of notches. A few light
showers are also noted on ktyx radar across the western
adirondacks, with ascent likely forced through a combination of
upslope and a vort MAX scraping northern portions of the region.

Have slight chance pops through the afternoon there. Could still
see some gusty winds especially where sunshine occurs, with
gusts to 20-25 kt already occurring in spots.

Short term /6 pm this evening through Friday night/
As high pressure passes over the region, dry and quiet weather
is expected for tonight into tomorrow. Skies will generally be
fairly clear, although some clouds are expected by late in the
day tomorrow as the next storm system starts to approach. Winds
will diminish tonight and be lighter for Thursday. Temps will be
in the 20s tonight and mainly be in the 40s on Thursday.

The next storm system will be approaching for Thursday night. A
closed off low at 500 hpa will be sliding across the ohio valley
on Thursday night into Friday and towards the mid-atlantic for
Friday night. At the same time, another weak northern stream
feature will be approaching out of southern canada, although
model guidance suggest that these two features don't fully phase
at they head towards the eastern united states. At the surface,
the initial low will track through the ohio valley on Friday,
while another low develops east of the mountains and rapidly
develops for Friday night as it heads east towards the western
atlantic ocean.

The main driver for our weather will be the potent southern
stream system, which will have ample moisture out of the gulf of
mexico and western atlantic. As this storm approaches,
precipitation looks to break out from west to east on Thursday
night thanks to isentropic lift/warm air advection. With temps
both at the surface and in the boundary layer initially being
cold (along with wet-bulbing processes), precip looks to start
out as a period of snow for Thursday night into early Friday
morning. This will occur for both valley and high terrain areas,
with a light accumulation possible by the morning commute
(especially for areas west of the hudson valley). Lows will
generally be in the 20s to near 30 on Thursday night as precip
begins.

The high pressure that provided the cold air mass to start will
be departing off the coast of new england on Friday morning. As
a result, through the morning hours, a persistent (although
light) east-southeast flow at low to mid levels, along with the
strong late march sunshine, will aid in warming the boundary
layer. It will be a battle between this warming and the cooling
of falling wintry precip for what p-type occurs. Ultimately,
model guidance suggest that valley areas looks to transition
over to rain or a rain/snow mix by afternoon, while higher
terrain areas remain mainly snow. At the same time, warming
aloft (around 800 hpa) could also allow for some sleet at times,
mainly for areas south of interstate 90. Temps in valley areas
look to reach the mid 30s, with low 30s for the higher terrain
areas by Friday afternoon and these temps look to hold steady
at these values for Friday night.

This will all be a close call, as heavy precip could allow the
column to go isothermal at times, with precip falling as heavy,
wet snow, even in valley areas. Models and ensembles do suggest
plenty of qpf, with many showing over 1.00" liquid having
fallen by Friday night. For now, we have a few inches of snow
accumulation (4" or less) for valley areas, with accumulations
of 6"+ for the mountains, with the highest amounts across the
southern green mountains and the southern adirondacks. This will
be subject to change and is a rather low confidence forecast at
this time. Snow ratios will be fairly poor through the event,
as the best dendritic growth zone will be around 500-600 hpa,
which is above most of the strong lift. Also, boundary layer
temps at or just above freezing will aid in some melting, making
the snow wet and dense.

Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/
There are chances for lingering precipitation Saturday morning as
the system departs. Precipitation may linger into the afternoon in
southern vt. Highs Saturday in the 40s with around 40 higher
terrain.

High pressure and dry weather is expected to build into the region
Sunday and exit to the east on Monday. Highs Sunday in the mid 40s
to around 50 but around 40 higher terrain. Highs Monday, with warm
advection increasing, in the lower to mid 50s but mid 40s higher
terrain.

Another upper cut off system is expected to eject out of the
southern plains toward the northeastern u.S. Monday night through
Tuesday. There are some disagreements in sources of guidance as to
how much low level cold air is anchored in our region from the high
pressure off southern canada. The upper cut off system is not as
strong and deep as would be needed for widespread snow and there are
indications it may track too far south for lots of precipitation
this far north.

Boundary layer temperatures are indicated to be around or just above
freezing. So, we have to wait until next weekend to see what
potential precipitation types and transitions we can expect with the
Monday night through Tuesday system. Until those details become
clearer, indicating chances for rain and snow later Monday night
transitioning to rain Tuesday. Highs Tuesday in the 40s.

Aviation /18z Wednesday through Monday/
Cloud bases have mainly risen toVFR, with some MVFR holding on
at kpsf. While cloud cover will be slow to break up this
afternoon, expect mainlyVFR conditions this afternoon and
through the TAF period. Do expect a gradual clearing trend this
evening with much less cloud cover overnight and into Thursday
as high pressure builds in.

Winds have been slow to respond at kalb/kgfl as cloud cover is
hindering diurnal mixing, but some north/northwesterly gusts to
20-25 kt remain possible through the daylight hours today.

These gusts have already been seen at kpsf/kpou, and expect them
to continue before diminishing around sunset. Winds will become
light overnight and into Thursday, mainly out of the north.

Outlook...

Thursday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday night: moderate operational impact. Likely sn.

Friday: high operational impact. Definite ra... Sn.

Friday night: high operational impact. Definite ra... Sn.

Saturday: moderate operational impact. Scattered shra... Shsn.

Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Sunday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Fire weather
Much of eastern new york and western new england continues to
have snow on the ground. Although snow melt has been ongoing
recently and most valley areas only have snow depth of a few
inches, much deeper snowpack remains across the hills and
mountains.

Clouds will break some sunshine today with near seasonable
temperatures. Although northwest winds will gust 20-30 mph this
afternoon, rh values will remain elevated (generally above 45-55
percent). After a dry day Thursday, more precipitation in the
form of rain and snow is expected on Friday.

Hydrology
The recent rainfall and snowmelt has led to some rises on rivers
and streams. A few river points came close or reached action
stage, but no flooding occurred. With daytime temperatures well
above freezing, some additional snowmelt is expected today and
tomorrow, but no precipitation is expected. This should allow
rivers and streams to slowly start to recede by later today or
tomorrow.

Another storm system is expected on Thursday night through
Friday night. Precipitation will be in the form of rain and
snow, with mainly snow or mixed precipitation across the highest
elevations. This wintry precipitation will initially prevent
much runoff from occurring. Still, some rivers are expected by
Friday into Saturday. At this point, the mmefs would suggest no
flooding is expected, although this will ultimately depend on
precipitation type and exact amounts which are still uncertain.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our
website.

Aly watches/warnings/advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Frugis
near term... Thompson
short term... Frugis
long term... Nas
aviation... Thompson
fire weather... Frugis
hydrology... Frugis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 36 mi99 min 51°F 1019 hPa31°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 97 mi54 min NNW 7.8 G 12 49°F 34°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monticello, Sullivan County International Airport, NY31 mi74 minNW 9 G 2110.00 miFair46°F28°F50%1019.6 hPa

Wind History from MSV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4E7CalmS3CalmCalmCalmNW7NW9NW9
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1 day agoNW4W5W3CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmNE3SE5N3CalmCalmNE4E3E3CalmCalmE4E5E4NE4NE6SE5
2 days agoE6E8E9E8E8E8E8E7E7E7E8E8E5E7E7E5E4E3E4E4CalmE3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Kingston, Hudson River, New York
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Kingston
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Wed -- 02:43 AM EDT     4.52 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:40 AM EDT     -0.59 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:11 PM EDT     4.33 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:54 PM EDT     -0.59 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.53.74.44.54.23.42.21.10.2-0.4-0.50.21.73.144.34.23.62.61.30.3-0.3-0.6-0

Tide / Current Tables for Tivoli, Hudson River, New York
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Tivoli
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Wed -- 03:13 AM EDT     4.79 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:10 AM EDT     -0.62 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:41 PM EDT     4.60 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:24 PM EDT     -0.62 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.83.44.44.84.74.131.70.6-0.2-0.6-0.312.63.84.54.64.23.32.10.9-0.1-0.6-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.