Tuesday, August22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Bluff-Brant Rock, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 7:33PM Tuesday August 22, 2017 11:00 AM EDT (15:00 UTC) Moonrise 6:46AMMoonset 8:14PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 1018 Am Edt Tue Aug 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday morning...
This afternoon..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers and tstms. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers and tstms. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1018 Am Edt Tue Aug 22 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres will continue to move east of the waters today. This will be followed by a cold front that will cross the waters on Wed. Large high pres will then build in from the west Thu and remain in control through the weekend. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Bluff-Brant Rock, MA
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location: 42.15, -70.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 221436
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
1036 am edt Tue aug 22 2017

Synopsis
A hot and humid day is in store for the region today with
afternoon heat index values climbing into the middle 90s away
from the south coast. A cold front will bring the potential for
scattered showers and thunderstorms late tonight which may
persist into Wednesday morning along the coastal plain. High
]pressure brings dry weather Thursday through Sunday with very
comfortable humidity levels.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Brought the forecast back in line with observed trends. Latest
satellite data showing breaks developing rapidly in the
stratus. It should only be a couple more hours before it
completely breaks over land. Will need to monitor the CAPE and
islands to be certain stratus doesn't redevelop.

Minor tweaks to temperatures based on expected cloud cover.

Still going to be quite hot and humid.

* headlines...

- hot and humid away from the south coast this afternoon with
heat index values reaching into the middle 90s
- a few strong thunderstorms possible late tonight, mainly
across N W areas of ma and ct with potential threats of gusty
winds, locally heavy downpours which could contribute to
flooding, and frequent lightning
* previous discussion...

mainly dry weather today but it will be hot and humid. Partly
sunny skies and 850t between +16c and +18c should result in
highs mainly in the upper 80s to near 90 away from the marine
influence of the south coast. Dewpoints well up into the 60s to
around 70 will result in heat index values in the middle 90s.

Deep mixing should also result in a rather breezy afternoon with
southwest wind gusts between 20 and 30 mph.

While modest instability will develop this afternoon, forcing
will remain well to our west and there will not be much of a
trigger for convection. While an isolated shower t-storm can not
be ruled out through early this evening, dry weather is generally
expected.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Wednesday
Tonight into Wednesday...

will be watching a cluster of showers and thunderstorms across
ny state early this evening. Forcing for this convection will
probably not arrive into western ma northern ct until after 02
or 03z. Given poor mid level lapse rates it will be difficult to
maintain severe convection into our region given the late
arrival. Nonetheless, increasing jet dynamics a strong
thunderstorm or two with gusty winds and brief torrential
rainfall can not be ruled out. Overall though the greatest
threat for severe weather will be to the west of our region.

Meanwhile, across eastern ma and ri it probably will remain dry
through at least midnight. Strong low level jet of 35 to 45
knots coupled with mucapes increasing between 1000 and 1500
j kg may allow scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop in
this region toward daybreak wed, particularly along the
southeast new england coast. It is interesting because other
than the ecmwf, most models do not show much QPF in this region
so confidence is low. However, pattern recognition would
indicate the risk for scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy
rainfall. In fact, a few strong thunderstorms can not be ruled
out given decent instability and the low level jet across
southeast new england. Something will have to watch, but again
confidence is low.

The threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms may persist
into Wednesday morning across the coastal plain and perhaps even
into early Wed afternoon across the CAPE islands. Otherwise,
much drier air will work in behind a cold front with lowering
humidity. High temps will mainly be in the lower 80s.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
A long break from summer heat. The return of the ridge-trough dipole
stretched from siberia into the gulf of alaska, ridge amplification
across the n-central CONUS into central canada shears energy equator-
ward downstream promoting trough persistence across the NE conus.

Several waves through the broader trough reinforcing cooler, drier
air across the region. With available moisture and diurnal heating,
collocated cold pool and steep lapse rates, can't rule out isolated
to scattered shower activity in the vicinity of S new england ahead
of favorable mid-level ascent. Higher confidence over upstate ny and
n new england. Lot of dry air and low theta-e behind early week
low pressure persisting over SE canada. The influence of a 1025
surface high throughout the forecast period, the quasi-
stationary tropical frontal boundary remains well S E off-shore.

Overall, looking like a prolonged period of dry weather with low
humidity, low dewpoints, making for comfortable conditions. Highs
around the mid to low 70s with lows down into the 50s. Scattered
cloud decks at times. Dewpoints ranging in the upper 40s to low
50s.

Aviation 15z Tuesday through Saturday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday ...

today... High confidence.

MainlyVFR. Fog has largely dissipated, but still dealing with
MVFR-ifr cigs, lingering the longest over the CAPE and islands.

Sw winds increasing through the day, up to 30 kts across the
s SE coastal terminals. Risk towards evening of MVFR-ifr
filling back in across SE terminals. An isolated shra tsra
possible across N W ma and ct towards early evening but mainly
dry weather is expected.

Tonight... Moderate confidence.

Cluster of sct shra tsra may enter N W ma and ct closer to 2-3z
sweeping E tot he coastal plain after 6z, closer to 12z
Wednesday.VFR with some marginal MVFR conditions will
probably dominate tonight, but some ifr CIGS vsbys may impact
the SE new england coast along with some llws from the
increasing low level jet.

Wednesday... High confidence in trends but lower confidence in
overall timing. Sct shra tsra may persist near and especially
southeast of the i-95 corridor into early Wednesday afternoon.

Improvement toVFR conditions expected from west to east on
Wednesday, but timing somewhat uncertain.

Kbos terminal... High confidence inVFR into this evening.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence inVFR today. A cluster of
scattered showers and thunderstorms may approach the terminal
after 2 or 3z this evening.

Outlook Wednesday night through Saturday ...

vfr. Daytime sct low-endVFR CIGS 4-5 kft agl. N W winds
throughout, light at times to allow onshore E sea-breezes.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday ... High confidence.

Today and tonight... Southwest wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots
expected to develop this afternoon and persist into the evening.

Strongest winds this afternoon should be near shore given
excellent mixing over the land. Small craft headlines posted for
all waters. Will also have to watch for a few strong
thunderstorms that may develop across southeast new england
toward daybreak Wednesday.

Wednesday... While pressure gradient weakens, seas will remain
above small craft levels into early Wednesday afternoon across
the open waters. Therefore, have extended small craft headlines
for the open waters into early Wed afternoon. A few strong
thunderstorms may also remain possible into early Wednesday
afternoon across the southeast new england waters.

Outlook Wednesday night through Saturday ...

good boating weather throughout. N winds persisting. Reinforcing
shots of cool, dry weather as high pressure builds into the region.

Subsequent slight enhancement in winds, gusts remaining below 20 kts
with seas 4 feet or less.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Wednesday for anz231>234-
251.

Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Wednesday for anz230-236.

Small craft advisory until 2 pm edt Wednesday for anz235-237.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt Wednesday for anz250-
254>256.

Synopsis... Frank sipprell
near term... Belk frank sipprell
short term... Frank
long term... Sipprell
aviation... Belk frank sipprell
marine... Frank sipprell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 14 mi71 min S 9.7 G 9.7 70°F 68°F1 ft1015.1 hPa (-1.2)
44090 26 mi27 min 70°F1 ft
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 26 mi117 min S 7.8 G 9.7 68°F 65°F1 ft1014.9 hPa
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 27 mi43 min 77°F 1014 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 40 mi76 min 2.9 76°F 1017 hPa72°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 42 mi49 min 76°F 74°F1016.6 hPa
FRXM3 43 mi43 min 76°F 72°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 43 mi43 min 72°F 73°F1016.4 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 43 mi43 min SW 11 G 13 74°F 1014.9 hPa
PVDR1 48 mi43 min SSE 11 G 12 76°F 1015.1 hPa73°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 48 mi43 min SW 8.9 G 18 80°F 71°F1014.9 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 49 mi49 min SSE 9.9 G 9.9 73°F 73°F1015.5 hPa

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Marshfield Airport, MA5 mi66 minSSW 8 G 1410.00 miOvercast77°F73°F89%1015.6 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA18 mi69 minSW 810.00 miOvercast75°F71°F88%1016 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA24 mi65 minSSW 1010.00 miOvercast75°F71°F88%1016.1 hPa

Wind History from GHG (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW7NW7Calm6NW86NW663CalmCalmCalmW3W3W4W4W45W54335W4
2 days ago5E5E6E8SE6E5E4CalmCalmCalmW4W3SW4W3CalmCalmW4SW4W3W4W54
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Tide / Current Tables for Brant Rock, Green Harbor River, Massachusetts
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Brant Rock
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Tue -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:08 AM EDT     -1.26 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:25 PM EDT     10.25 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:24 PM EDT     -0.67 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:14 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
11.110.38.35.62.6-0.1-1.2-0.71.13.56.48.810.1108.76.63.81.1-0.5-0.41.23.56.39

Tide / Current Tables for Boston Harbor, Massachusetts Current
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Boston Harbor
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:36 AM EDT     -1.46 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:54 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:47 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:12 AM EDT     1.41 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:54 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:05 PM EDT     -1.39 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:18 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:15 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:34 PM EDT     1.35 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.4-0.9-1.2-1.4-1.4-0.90.111.31.41.30.6-0.1-0.6-1-1.3-1.4-1.2-0.30.71.21.31.30.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.