Wednesday, January24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Bluff-Brant Rock, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 4:49PM Wednesday January 24, 2018 6:48 AM EST (11:48 UTC) Moonrise 12:05PMMoonset 12:25AM Illumination 52% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 408 Am Est Wed Jan 24 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon...
Today..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of freezing spray.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of freezing spray.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Rain likely.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of rain. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 408 Am Est Wed Jan 24 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A cold front sweeps across the waters this morning with winds shift to W to nw. Winds will remain gusty through Thursday as large high pres builds toward the waters. The high will crest over the waters Friday, then shifting east of the waters through Saturday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Bluff-Brant Rock, MA
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location: 42.15, -70.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 240847
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
347 am est Wed jan 24 2018

Synopsis
Drier and colder air works into the region after sunrise behind a
secondary cold front. This blustery, dry and january-like cold
continues into Friday, then a warming trend over the weekend. A cold
front may bring showers Sunday or next Monday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
345 am update...

*** patchy black ice possible before sunrise especially in the
ct & merrimack river valleys ***
secondary cold front coming across eastern ny and western ma at 3 am
with gusty wnw ushering in colder drier air behind the front.

However ahead of the front winds were light southerly in the ct
river valley with temps and dew pts near freezing. Mesonet data
shows a number of sites at or below freezing. Thus could have some
patchy black ice across the i-91 corridor of ma and also possibly
over northern middlesex county toward the nh border with the same
conditions being observed. However model soundings suggest this will
be short lived as the secondary cold front sweeps across this region
between 4 am to 7 am. Behind the front gusty wnw winds will mix out
this remnant low level moisture and end the risk of black ice, with
the risk diminishing between 4 am and 7 am from west to east.

Elsewhere, tranquil predawn weather with frontal passage around or
shortly before sunrise. Gusty wnw winds up to 30 mph behind the
front accompanied by modest CAA with 925 mb falling from -3c at 12z
to about -10c by 00z. This will limit highs to the 30s, possibly
near 40 along the south coast. Right on target for late jan but
gusty wnw winds will yield wind chills in the 20s.

Other than some post frontal strato-cu later this morning especially
over the interior, mostly sunny conditions will prevail this
afternoon.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Thursday
345 am update...

tonight...

short wave approaches the region and clips the south coast.

Synoptic scale forcing with this feature but column essentially
dry so not expecting any sensible weather. Core of the cold air
begins to overspread the area with 925 mb temps falling to about
-12c by Thu morning. This will support lows in the teens and
enough of a wind to yield wind chills in the single digits.

Thursday...

caa continues with 925 mb temps holding to about -14c along the
ma nh border to about -10c along the south coast. Mixing limited to
about 900 mb and this will limit highs to the 20s and wind chills to
the teens. Definitely a january-like feel to the day. Mid high
clouds during the morning should give way to more sunshine by
afternoon.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Updated 345 am
* highlights...

- becoming mild into the weekend
- stormy pattern Sunday potentially as late as Tuesday
- lower confidence given possible precip-type outcomes
- seemingly dry as temperatures see-saw into the following week
* overview...

so long as the blocking ridge maintains across the N pacific in the
absence of traffic downstream, progressive pattern persists. Parent
mjo phase 5 6 7 implications insinuating a milder pattern for the e
conus, energy out of the pacific, dipping into the sub-tropics off
of baja california, leaning towards a milder pattern for the rest of
january, favoring interior rather than coastal low development. The
region of more favorable surface baroclinicity N W along with the
thermal wind profile h3 jet streak. Until the pattern breaks over
the N pacific, epo signs altering positive to negative, arctic air
remains locked up to the N pressed by milder pacific air ushered
over the conus. Ensembles continue to signal within teleconnections
that the pattern will shift towards mid-february, low pressure the
more dominant player over the N NE pacific with ridging into the w
conus, the flood gates potentially opening across N america for
arctic air to carve S on the backside of an anticipated preferred h5
trof pattern into the E conus. A january thaw for now but it would
appear that winter will make a return fairly soon.

* discussion...

through Saturday...

keep it dry. High pressure in control situated S of an inside runner
low well up in the S hudson bay region, unfavorable pattern towards
cold air damming. Return S flow possibly breezy, beneath a lingering
dry inversion, onshore higher dewpoint air, could be contending with
low clouds fog issues, especially so with cold ground temperatures
subsequent of the very cold lows through Saturday morning.

Sunday through Tuesday...

continued signals of wet weather. Open wave h5 impulse and attendant
jet streak tapping into sub-tropical moisture out of the gulf (24.0z
gefs with anomalous s-flow precipitable waters), surface cyclo-
genesis emerging along a trailing cold front from an initial impulse
deepening NE through the S hudson bay region into E canada. Ec ukmet
preference, the surface low sweeping NE across the NE conus, looking
mainly wet, potential decent slug of rain should a strong low-level
jet emerge with convergent forcing along its nose. Main h5 vortmax
energy lagging, watching closely for anafrontal characteristics, to
the N W as to whether any frozen snowy precipitation emerges as cold
air undercuts. Early to say, low confidence forecast given precip-
type implications.

Wednesday onward...

will keep it dry, another see-saw pattern of cold air initially in
wake of the early week storm system followed by a warm up ahead of a
potential disturbance towards the end of the week into the weekend.

No confidence in the forecast this far out.

Aviation 09z Wednesday through Sunday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ...

06z update...

thru 12z...

vfr, dry runways and light winds. Could have some black ice at
before winds pickup from the wnw 09z-12z.

After 12z...

marginal MVFR with CIGS bkn030 12z-17z thenVFR this afternoon.

Modest wnw winds 15-25g30kt.

Tonight and Thursday...

vfr, dry weather and modest nnw winds 15-25 kt few gusts up to
30 kt possible.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in TAF with wind shift to the
wnw 15-25 kt beginning 11z-13z.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in TAF with wind shift to the
wnw 15-30kt beginning 09z-11z.

Outlook Thursday night through Sunday ...

Thursday night:VFR. Windy with local gusts to 30 kt.

Friday:VFR. Breezy.

Friday night:VFR.

Saturday:VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt.

Saturday night: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Breezy.

Chance ra.

Sunday: mainly MVFR, with areas ifr possible. Breezy. Ra
likely.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ...

today...

light SW winds becoming wnw 20-30 kt after sunrise along with
colder drier air overspreading the waters. SCA posted. Rough seas as
leftover southerly swells up to 10 ft combine with developing wnw
wind waves.

Tonight...

nnw winds relax at 15-20 kt. Dry weather and good vsby.

Thursday...

nnw winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt likely yields moderate
freezing spray. Will likely need a freezing spray advisory as we
draw closer. High probability for moderate freezing spray.

Outlook Thursday night through Sunday ...

Thursday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of freezing
spray.

Friday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Friday night: winds less than 25 kt.

Saturday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance
of rain.

Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Chance of rain.

Hydrology
A flood warning remains in effect for the ct river at middle
haddam... But there are no other hydro concerns at this point.

For details on specific area rivers, including observed and
forecast river stages, please visit the advanced hydrologic
prediction service (ahps) graphs on our website.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm est this evening for
anz230>234-236-237-251.

Small craft advisory until 1 am est Thursday for anz235-250-
254>256.

Synopsis... Nocera sipprell
near term... Nocera
short term... Nocera
long term... Sipprell
aviation... Nocera sipprell
marine... Nocera sipprell
hydrology... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 14 mi59 min SSW 16 G 18 40°F 40°F2 ft1003.5 hPa (+1.2)
44090 26 mi49 min 37°F1 ft
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 26 mi105 min 16 G 19 40°F 39°F4 ft1001.8 hPa
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 27 mi49 min 40°F 1003.6 hPa (+1.7)
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 40 mi64 min 2.9 38°F 1006 hPa34°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 42 mi49 min 38°F 37°F1006.6 hPa (+2.1)
FRXM3 43 mi49 min 38°F 32°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 43 mi49 min 39°F 35°F1006.4 hPa (+2.1)
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 43 mi49 min SW 12 G 14 38°F 1005.3 hPa (+2.0)
PVDR1 48 mi49 min WSW 8 G 9.9 39°F 1006.2 hPa (+2.3)32°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 48 mi49 min W 11 G 14 39°F 36°F1005.7 hPa (+2.4)
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 49 mi49 min SW 8.9 G 11 38°F 38°F1006.2 hPa (+2.3)

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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--

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Marshfield Airport, MA5 mi74 minSW 7 G 1310.00 miFair39°F33°F81%1004.4 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA18 mi57 minSW 610.00 miFair37°F32°F82%1005.3 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA24 mi53 minSW 1510.00 miFair37°F34°F89%1004.9 hPa

Wind History from GHG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5SW14
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W5W4CalmSW36SW7
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN44NE4E4NE3NE4E3E5SE3CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSW4SW536SW6354NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Brant Rock, Green Harbor River, Massachusetts
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Brant Rock
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Wed -- 04:03 AM EST     9.15 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:18 AM EST     0.66 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:05 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:26 PM EST     8.80 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:47 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:20 PM EST     First Quarter
Wed -- 10:39 PM EST     0.44 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.25.27.18.59.28.67.25.23.31.70.712.54.46.27.78.78.67.55.73.720.70.5

Tide / Current Tables for Boston Harbor, Massachusetts Current
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Boston Harbor
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:03 AM EST     1.31 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:36 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:37 AM EST     -1.10 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:28 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:06 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:30 PM EST     1.21 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 04:00 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:47 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:20 PM EST     First Quarter
Wed -- 06:59 PM EST     -1.04 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 10:48 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.31.20.90.4-0.3-0.8-1.1-1.1-1-0.8-0.40.51.11.210.60-0.6-0.9-1-1-0.8-0.50.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.