Tuesday, January22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Bluff-Brant Rock, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 4:46PM Tuesday January 22, 2019 7:06 AM EST (12:06 UTC) Moonrise 7:43PMMoonset 9:15AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 340 Am Est Tue Jan 22 2019
.gale warning in effect until 7 am est this morning...
.heavy freezing spray warning in effect until 6 am est early this morning...
Today..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt this afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Freezing spray this morning.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of rain in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas around 4 ft. Patchy fog. Rain.
Thu..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas around 5 ft. Patchy fog. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 4 ft. A chance of rain in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas around 3 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of snow showers after midnight. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 340 Am Est Tue Jan 22 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Arctic air and breezy nw winds will diminish this morning as high pressure builds over the waters. Widespread moderate to heavy freezing spray will also diminish with the diminishing wind. A sweeping area of low pressure late Wednesday through Thursday with a soaking rain and gale force south winds. Arctic air and high pressure Friday into Saturday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Bluff-Brant Rock, MA
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location: 42.15, -70.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 221200
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
700 am est Tue jan 22 2019

Synopsis
Arctic airmass and dangerously cold wind chills will diminish
this morning as high pressure builds over southern new england.

Temperatures moderate into the 20s today, then to the 40s
Wednesday and Thursday. An approaching frontal system will
bring occasional rain Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night
with a period of heavy rain possible on Thursday. Mainly dry and
more seasonable temperatures Friday then turning much colder
Saturday. Snow showers are possible Sunday as another front
approaches.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
7am update...

overall, forecast remains on track this morning. Wind chill
values still running close to advisory criteria, so plan to let
this ride through its set ending time of 8am local. Temps dwpts
and winds were brought up to match current trends, otherwise, no
significant changes are necessary.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Wednesday
Tonight...

high pressure overhead early, but then shifts offshore during
the night. This will support light wind and clear skies, so
radiational cooling should allow temps to fall through the first
part of the night, then increasing clouds later at night may
cause temperatures to level out. In any case, we went a couple
of degrees colder than min temp guidance.

Wednesday...

increasing s-sw flow during the day with deepening column of
moisture. Precipitable water values climb to 0.75 inches late in
the day, but with higher values upstream. The column is
marginally cold enough for some snow sleet at the onset across
the interior, but this should be short lived as increasing sw
flow rapidly warms the boundary layer. Temps moderate into the
upper 30s to mid 40s during the afternoon. Low level jet of
50-60 kt moves off the mid atlantic coast toward evening, enough
to bring winds of 30-35 kt toward evening.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
Highlights...

* rain Wed night possible starting as snow mixed precip
interior
* a period of heavy rain thu, especially SE new eng
* mainly dry and turning colder Fri into sat
* snow showers possible next Sunday
overview and model preferences...

taking a broad look, most guidance is favoring a period of
negative ao nao coupled with negative epo and slightly positive
pna. Unsurprisingly, this favors a pattern that will allow for
arctic influence across the central and E CONUS late week and
into the weekend. Available guidance supports this, with a lobe
of the polar vortex diving southward late week as well.

Otherwise, even with the cold air entrenched across the region
now, the very weak ridging suggests that sfc high pres passage
is mainly to the S wed. Warm advection floods across the NE as a
result, so any mixed precip should change rapidly to rain.

Noting reasonable agreement between long range guidance sources
such that a consensus blend can be used as a baseline.

Details...

wed night...

initial round of overrunning precip as warm front crosses the
region. Soundings low lvl thermal fields, even taking wet-bulb
processes into account warm rapidly. Areas N of the mass pike
may begin as a period of snow sleet before a rapid change to
rain across the entire region. Strongest LLJ and highest pwat
plumes approach by 12z so precip should remain light moderate
most of the overnight hours. Non-diurnal temp trend expected,
with increasing dwpts temps during the overnight.

Thu...

setup for heavy rain. Combination of approaching frontal wave,
pwat plume nearly 1.5 inches (3 std deviations above normal) and
coupled 80-90 kt LLJ at both h92 and h85. Periods of heavy rain
expected, focused across the SE especially as the core of the
llj traverses se. Also noting a period of steep upper lapse
rates which hint at convective potential, as previous forecaster
noted. Will need to monitor for localized urban and even some
river flooding, given that some rivers continue to run high from
the storm this past weekend. Ice snow melt at the surface will
exacerbate this potential. Regarding the wind risk, best chance
for strong winds will be across the CAPE islands based on the
current LLJ track. However, soundings show robust inversion
which will limit mixing somewhat. Agree however, just given the
heavy rain convective risk that a few gusts may be strong enough
to require headlines. Timing of cold advection suggests a risk
for a brief change to sn before ending, especially in the slower
ecmwf NAM solutions.

Fri...

cold advection with breezy conditions expected, however the
coldest air remains NW associated with a secondary arctic front.

Seasonable temperatures feel colder mainly due to wind chills.

Mainly dry otherwise.

Sat...

arctic frontal passage Fri night into sat. A few light
shsn flurries possible given some moistening above the bl.

Otherwise, arctic air mass introduces temperatures mainly below
normal for sat, Sat night. Best chance for any accums will be in
the higher terrain.

Sun...

arctic shortwave and attendant clipper rotates from the great
lakes. Current low pres track remains to the nw, however
inverted sfc trof could lead to some precip, mainly sn based on
current thermal profiles. QPF is light and could be very
localized, but something to watch.

Early next week...

high uncertainty regarding another lobe of the arctic vortex
rotating south through the fully established longwave trof. Sfc
low pres tracks range from inland runners to very strong low
pres well to the S of new england from current ensembles and is
based partially on a weaker southern stream wave. Neither of
these features are being well sampled, so this too will just be
something to watch as we approach.

Aviation 11z Tuesday through Saturday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday ... High confidence
today...

vfr. W-nw winds strongest during the morning, then gradually
dissipating into the afternoon and evening.

Tonight...

vfr. Clear skies early along with light winds. High pressure
moves offshore overnight and leaves room for some high clouds
overnight.

Wednesday...

vfr through at least mid afternoon. Conditions lower and thicken
through the afternoon with MVFR CIGS vsbys possible late
afternoon in developing rain... Possibly brief sleet or freezing
rain in northwest massachusetts.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf
outlook Wednesday night through Saturday ...

Wednesday night and Thursday: mainly ifr, with local MVFR
possible. Strong winds with local gusts to 40 kt. Ra, patchy br.

Thursday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR lingering. Windy
with local gusts to 30 kt. Slight chance ra.

Friday through Friday night:VFR. Breezy.

Saturday: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Breezy.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday ...

12z update...

extended timing of gales and east coastal freezing spray through
mid morning. Current conditions offshore still show several
gusts reaching gales and buoys indicate freezing spray
continues.

Today...

northwest winds at gale force diminish this morning as high
pressure builds over new england. Moderate to heavy freezing
spray lingers this morning, but diminishes as the wind
diminishes. Seas 5 to 10 feet this morning, subsides through the
day.

Tonight...

high pressure over the waters will bring fair skies and light
wind. Seas 5-6 feet on the eastern outer waters early, but
subsiding.

Wednesday...

increasing southwest winds with gusts reaching 30 to 35 kt in
the afternoon evening. Seas building to 5-6 feet on the outer
waters and coastal ri waters. Chance of rain.

Outlook Wednesday night through Saturday ...

Wednesday night and Thursday: high risk for gale force winds
with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 16 ft. Rain, patchy
fog.

Thursday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Chance of rain.

Friday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.

Friday night and Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
rough seas. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... Wind chill advisory until 8 am est this morning for ctz002>004.

Ma... Wind chill advisory until 8 am est this morning for maz003>007-
010>021-026.

Wind chill advisory until 11 am est this morning for maz002-
008-009.

Ri... Wind chill advisory until 8 am est this morning for riz001>007.

Marine... Gale warning until 7 am est this morning for anz230>237-251.

Freezing spray advisory until 11 am est this morning for
anz233>235-237-255-256.

Gale warning until 2 pm est this afternoon for anz250-254>256.

Synopsis... Wtb doody
near term... Wtb doody
short term... Wtb
long term... Doody
aviation... Wtb doody
marine... Wtb doody


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 14 mi76 min WNW 31 G 39 13°F 41°F7 ft1025.5 hPa (+3.8)5°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 26 mi76 min NW 27 G 35 15°F 8 ft1024.8 hPa (+4.1)6°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 26 mi62 min WNW 21 G 29 12°F 40°F6 ft1025.9 hPa
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 27 mi36 min 9°F 1029.3 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 40 mi81 min W 8 9°F 1027 hPa-8°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 43 mi36 min NW 11 G 16 10°F 1030.1 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 43 mi36 min 13°F 33°F1028.2 hPa
FRXM3 43 mi36 min 10°F -3°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 48 mi36 min N 12 G 22 8°F 38°F1030.5 hPa
PVDR1 48 mi36 min NW 12 G 17 8°F 1030.8 hPa-5°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 49 mi36 min NW 23 G 29 13°F 34°F1027.5 hPa2°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 49 mi36 min WNW 25 G 29 10°F 34°F1030.3 hPa

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Marshfield Airport, MA5 mi31 minWNW 12 G 1810.00 miFair9°F-7°F47%1028.1 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA18 mi14 minNW 12 G 2010.00 miFair0°F0°F%1028.8 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA24 mi10 minNW 25 G 3210.00 miFair and Windy14°F7°F73%1027.3 hPa

Wind History from GHG (wind in knots)
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G26
----NE17
G22
E18
G24
NE19
G25

Tide / Current Tables for Brant Rock, Green Harbor River, Massachusetts
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Boston Harbor, Massachusetts Current
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Boston Harbor
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Tue -- 02:33 AM EST     -1.33 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:35 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:05 AM EST     1.46 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 08:15 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 11:22 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:56 PM EST     -1.46 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:44 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:05 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:44 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:46 PM EST     1.46 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:56 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.6-1.1-1.3-1.3-1.2-0.60.51.31.51.41.10.3-0.5-1-1.4-1.5-1.4-1-0.10.91.41.51.30.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.