Sunday, September24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manchester, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 7:30PM Sunday September 24, 2017 4:46 AM EDT (08:46 UTC) Moonrise 10:44AMMoonset 9:15PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ444 Michigan Waters Of Lake Erie From Detroit River To North Cape Mi- 1002 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Rest of tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the north early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy early in the morning...then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the west in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening...then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lake forecast for days 3 through 5. The water temperature at belle isle is 77.4 degrees.
LEZ444 Expires:201707230900;;677433 FZUS63 KDTX 230203 GLFSC GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1001 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A broad area of low pressure...29.70 inches...will slowly track across Lower Michigan through Sunday. The system will exit to the east Sunday night, pulling a cold front through the central Great Lakes late Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure...30.20 inches...then builds into the area Monday and Tuesday. LEZ444-230900-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manchester, MI
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location: 42.15, -84.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 240745
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
345 am edt Sun sep 24 2017

Discussion
Today will likely be the fourth consecutive day of record high
temperatures at flint and saginaw(mbs), and detroit also has a
chance to break the record of 89 set way back in 1891. The records
for flint and saginaw are 89 2007 and 90 2007 respectively.

The record early fall heat has been driven by a strongly amplified
and stable upper air pattern over north america that is producing a
591 dm ridge at 500 mb directly over lower michigan. Satellite
imagery and model analysis fields indicate the core of the ridge is
still in place during the early morning but simulations show with
good agreement that it will drift eastward through the day. This
will still result in widespread high temperatures in the lower 90s
but likely not as many mid 90s readings compared to the last couple
of days. A light southeast wind will also return to shoreline areas
and into the detroit metro area from lake erie as the surface high
follows the upper ridge slightly eastward. Mid afternoon onset of
this flow pattern was effective at preventing both dtw and det from
reaching 90 Thursday and Friday and adds some uncertainty there
today despite full sunshine across the region.

The persistent nature of this stretch of heat keeps advisory
headlines in consideration, however there has been several hours of
relief during each of the last few nights as low temperatures
dropped into the lower to mid 60s most locations. Surface dewpoint
showed some vulnerability to boundary layer mixing yesterday and
guidance today points to readings in the lower to mid 60s which will
only produce a degree or two of heat index enhancement. These
factors suggest advisory headlines are not needed while heat
precautions remain part of other messaging.

High temperatures Monday and Tuesday are expected to come off the
weekend peak by a degree or two each day. The record at flint is
only 86 1935 while readings will be near 91 1900 at saginaw but are
expected to be short of 93 1891 at detroit. This time period is the
beginning of the upper air pattern shift that has the rockies trough
lifting into the northern plains while eroding the ridge in the
east. This process and the added cloud cover will produce the slight
cooling trend before the associated cold front arrives. Usually
temperatures overachieve prior to a frontal passage but in this case
low level advective processes are very weak.

The latest global long range models are settling on Tuesday night
and Wednesday timing for the front and also depicting a rather
anemic moisture pattern along it while passing through the great
lakes. A chance of showers and thunderstorms does seem warranted as
the front continues to show enough temperature contrast to drop
highs back into the 70s by Wednesday and then into the 60s after a
reinforcing front by Thursday into Friday. Guidance then shows high
temps possibly not warmer than the 50s to start next weekend.

Marine
Extended stretch of very warm and humid conditions continues today
as the region remains under the influence of strong upper ridging.

This pattern will support light winds - under 15 knots - and low
waves during this time. These conditions will persist into early
next week. A cold front crossing the central great lakes Tuesday
night will bring a low chance of shower and thunderstorm activity,
along with winds shifting to the west and increasing to around 15
knots.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1202 am edt Sun sep 24 2017
aviation...

strong upper ridging anchored over the region will maintain
favorable aviation conditions through the period. This environment
may support patchy fog during the early morning period, particularly
at dtw yip. Otherwise, very dry column with stability will produce
clear skies through Sunday evening.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Bt
marine... ... .Sf
aviation... ..Sf
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 43 mi47 min Calm G 1 69°F 1020.1 hPa (+0.0)61°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 65 mi47 min Calm G 1 71°F 1021 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Municipal Airport, MI16 mi54 minN 07.00 miFair59°F59°F100%1020.1 hPa
Adrian, Lenawee County Airport, MI19 mi54 minNNE 310.00 miFair61°F57°F90%1020.5 hPa

Wind History from ARB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3NE5E3E9E6SE6SE4SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmN3CalmCalmNE33CalmCalm3E5CalmE7E6SE8SE4SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalm--SE5S3S5S44S5S3SW8----E3W8E3CalmSW4CalmCalmCalmN4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.