Sunday, May28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manchester, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 9:03PM Sunday May 28, 2017 6:34 AM EDT (10:34 UTC) Moonrise 8:06AMMoonset 11:04PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ444 Michigan Waters Of Lake Erie From Detroit River To North Cape Mi- 402 Am Edt Sun May 28 2017
Today..East winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy early in the morning becoming partly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the southwest late in the evening...then becoming west 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms until early morning...then partly cloudy early in the morning. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny until late afternoon becoming partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Monday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots late in the evening...then increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy. A chance of light showers until early morning. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lake forecast for days 3 through 5. The water temperature at belle isle is 59.9 degrees.
LEZ444 Expires:201705281500;;332445 FZUS53 KDTX 280816 NSHDTX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST FOR MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 402 AM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. LEZ444-281500-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manchester, MI
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location: 42.15, -84.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 280938
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
538 am edt Sun may 28 2017

Aviation
Increasing moisture and daytime heating will allow a ceilings to
develop between 4000-5000 feet during the late morning and very
early afternoon. Main concern today will center around thunderstorm
development. Stable conditions should keep the area dry through
about 18z, before a surface warm front lifting into the area allows
conditions to destabilize. Although showers and thunderstorms may
develop during the very late afternoon, activity looks most likely
during the evening in the 21-03z time frame. Some of these storms
may be strong to severe. Activity should end from west to east
between 00-03z as a cold front sweeps through the area. MVFR
conditions look to prevail behind the front in a moist airmass left
behind by active convection. Skies and visibilities should then
improve late overnight.

For dtw... Bkn CU field at or below 5000 feet is expected to develop
during the late morning. Best potential for thunderstorms at dtw
looks to occur between 21z and 03z.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate in ceilings at or below 5000 ft this afternoon and
evening.

* moderate in thunderstorms between 22-03z.

Prev discussion
Issued at 412 am edt Sun may 28 2017
discussion...

holiday weekend - forecast package highlights.

1. Firmed up timing for pops today. A dry morning period with
pops ramping up post 18z. Shower and thunderstorm event
(numerous pops) expected from southwest to northeast between
21-03z.

2. Isolated to scattered severe weather possible between 21-03z
for all of southeastern michigan. Focus for the severe weather
threat will be along and ahead of a warm front lifting through
the area. Severe weather threats include: damaging wind gusts
to 60 mph, large hail to 1 inch, and a low potential for
tornado development.

3. On Monday, temperatures will reach the lower to middle 70s
areawide but will feel cooler because of falling dewpoints.

Warmest temperatures south and east of glacial terrain within
the detroit urban heat island. Cooler near the lake huron
shoreline.

4. Isolated rain shower or thunderstorm chance during the very
late afternoon or evening hours Monday, particularly north of
the m 59 corridor. No severe weather potential Monday.

Quiet weather is forecasted this morning. The slab of high stability
in the 6 to 12 kft agl layer (see 28.00z kdtx raob) is progged to
hang around into the afternoon while lowering a couple of thousand
feet. The back edge of the upper level ridge needs to exit the
region. Will likely see some echoes show up on radar, but expecting
this to remain virga through 18z.

A significant lobe to the canadian upper level PV anomaly will work
through the base of the trough this morning and continue to a
negative tilt over wisconsin this afternoon. This action along with
left exist region dynamics overspreading the region will result in a
broad area of 1000-500mb geopotential height falls over the central
great lakes. This organized forcing will be strong enough to draw
richer low to midlevel theta E content from parts of far southern
il in northward into southeastern michigan. No question, the best
thing going for this setup will be the distinct, well developed low
to midlevel theta E ridge that will serve as the focal point in the
frontal wave that will roll across the state.

Not a whole lot has really changed in the latest iterations of the
nwp or from previous forecast thinking. The later timing that has
been bandied about for the past couple of days has held on. The
dominant forcing that is expected to govern shower and thunderstorm
development today will be the low to midlevel warm advection that
will occur along and ahead of a warm front. A slight shift in the
00z suite was for a few solutions, most notably the operational nam,
resolving a slightly weaker surface low reflection developing at the
triple point along with a flatter release of the low. Really
difficult to say definitely if this slightly southern solution will
end up verifying. The reason is that dynamical forcing today is not
high end or extremely crisp. Looking through the gradients of both
the mass and kinematic fields, the feeling is the SPC swody1 graphic
may be overly reliant on the nam. Therefore, the belief is that
potential for isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms exists for
all of southeastern michigan including the tri cities and the tip of
the thumb. The biggest factor in this decision is the 700-500mb
warm front will lift northward through the cwa.

The largest negative factor for severe weather development today
will be very poor midlevel lapse rates. Will likely require solid
lower 60 dewpoints at more than skin level, in addition to, some
peaks at Sun or higher transparency high cloud to result in mlcapes
of 1000 j kg. This is certainly doable given upstream dewpoint
observations in southern il in. Cannot say for certain though with
the typical NAM already overdoing dewpoints locally this past
evening and MOS guidance some 3 to 5 degrees lower with dewpoints
than prior predictions. Now for the shear. Really kind of split as
deep layer shear numbers have improved regionwide with widespread 40
knots accessible, while in contrast, near surface shear both from a
directional turning perspective and 0-0.5km shear is notably less.

With that said, the heavy component of a flatter and weaker surface
low is playing into that. At this juncture, do not want to move much
from prior thinking. Bottomline, deep layer shear will be more than
adequate for mesocylone development. This supports an isolated to
scattered severe threat today for damaging wind gusts to 60mph,
large hail to 1 inch, along with a low potential for tornado
development. Peak of the event is still expected 20-03z for all of
southeastern michigan along and ahead of a warm front.

Weather and skies are expected to clear out rapidly overnight in the
wake of the event as very strong signal exists for 925-700mb dry
slot overspreading the area.

The main upper level low will be slow to dig into southeastern
michigan Monday. The most obvious thing going on Monday is an
unfavorable coupling of upper level jet streaks over michigan and
ohio. Cyclonic vorticity advection will eventually arrive but it
will be later in the day. Lapse rates and depth of moisture are
shown to be weaker or less favorable for precipitation than earlier
progged. Isolated or scattered pops appears more than adequate.

Marine...

primary issue for mariners today will be thunderstorm development as
low pressure lifts through the area. Activity for the first half of
the day will be confined to far northern portions of lake huron.

Potential for storms will then increase through the late afternoon
for all areas, with showers and thunderstorms likely in the evening.

A few strong storms will be possible. West to southwest winds will
then develop behind a cold front tonight, then strengthen Monday and
Tuesday as low pressure becomes stalled over northern ontario. Gusts
both days look to just top 20 knots for most marine areas, with
stronger speeds over saginaw bay possibly necessitating a small
craft advisory Monday and Tuesday.

Hydrology...

chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase through the
second half of the afternoon, with activity becoming likely during
the evening. Basin average rainfall amounts are forecast to range
between one-quarter and one-half inch, but precipitation totals will
vary widely from location to location due to the hit and miss nature
of showers and thunderstorms. The more intense storms will have the
potential to produce isolated rainfall amounts of one inch or
greater, which could cause minor flooding in the low lying and poor
drainage areas. Showers and thunderstorms should end around
midnight, before scattered activity redevelops Monday afternoon.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Hlo
discussion... Cb
marine... ... .Hlo
hydrology... .Hlo
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 43 mi46 min E 8 G 9.9 64°F 1008.7 hPa56°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 65 mi34 min ENE 6 G 7 60°F 1010.5 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Municipal Airport, MI16 mi41 minno data10.00 miA Few Clouds57°F54°F90%1008.8 hPa
Adrian, Lenawee County Airport, MI19 mi41 minNE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy56°F54°F93%1008.9 hPa

Wind History from ARB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4NE3E4SE5E7NE4E54CalmS3SE8SE6E5E5SE4SE3CalmNE3CalmNE4CalmN3N4--
1 day agoNW7W5NW7W5W9W7W6W8W7W4W4NW4NW3CalmN5CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmN34
2 days agoN7N7N6N7NE7N9NW7NW7NW10NW10NW10NW9NW9NW9W6W7NW6NW6NW8NW8NW6W9NW7W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.