Tuesday, March28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manchester, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 7:59PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 11:20 PM EDT (03:20 UTC) Moonrise 6:58AMMoonset 7:49PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ444 Michigan Waters Of Lake Erie From Detroit River To North Cape Mi- 946 Am Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
Rest of today..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy in the evening then clearing. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy in the evening becoming mostly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lake forecast for days 3 through 5. The water temperature at belle isle is 39.8 degrees.
LEZ444 Expires:201703282130;;211609 FZUS53 KDTX 281346 NSHDTX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST FOR MICHIGAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 946 AM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. LEZ444-282130-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manchester, MI
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location: 42.15, -84.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 282309
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
709 pm edt Tue mar 28 2017

Aviation
Much drier nne flow has pushed MVFR stratus deck south of terminals
early this evening and generally expectVFR conditions into much of
Wednesday. NE flow across lake huron way slowly moisture so will
maintain scattered strato-cu mid morning/early afternoon Tuesday as
moisture is potentially mixed out. Upper clouds thicken in the 18z-
22z time frame, but any notable weather, associated with low
pressure lifting out of the plains, will hold off until after the
forecast period.

For dtw...VFR conditions are expected this forecast period now that
stratus is south of the terminal. Otherwise, NE flow in the 5-7 knot
range will become established into Tuesday around high pressure.

//dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

Prev discussion
Issued at 314 pm edt Tue mar 28 2017
discussion...

12z dtx sounding revealed stout low level inversion at 900 mb, which
has been able to sustain clouds thus far with the low level
northeast flow coming off lake huron. However, afternoon mixing and
lowering inversion heights is supporting a north-south clearing
tread over the central great lakes, which should continue into the
early evening hours. Weak shortwave trough passing through the
northern great lakes early this evening, with cold air filtering in
overnight (925/850 mb temps lowering into negative low to mid
numbers over lake huron), which looks to support a redevelopment of
lake huron stratus (although significant differences noted in 925 mb
rh fields between nam/gfs/hiresarw/euro), pushing inland during the
day on Wednesday, as differential heating leads to increasing
northeast flow, and potential low/circulation developing (see
regional gem).

Between clouds and northeast flow off lake huron, looks like there
will be a significant range in MAX temps, from mid 40s across the
far north, to low-mid 50s across the far southwest, farthest removed
from lake huron. Once again, afternoon mixing/boundary layer depths
increasing expected to dissipate low clouds late, but warm advection
mid/high clouds should then be on the increase ahead of our next
storm system. Low level thermal profiles will be borderline as
precipitation overspreads southeast michigan Wednesday night-
Thursday morning, as it looks like a narrow/700 mb fgen band could
break out/develop as good surge of moisture takes place, with 700 mb
specific humidity climbing to 5 g/kg by Thursday morning.

Interestingly, the 12z NAM is one of the driest solutions with the
low level dry air holding into Thursday for most of southeast
michigan. Meanwhile, 12z euro is one of the more aggressive
solutions in terms of qpf, but 1000-850 mb thicknesses all above
1305 m along and south of i-69 corridor, suggesting all rain. Bottom
line, expecting mainly a rain event as surface temps in the 30s
Wednesday night climb into the 40s on Thursday, but a brief period
of snow is possible late Wednesday night-Thursday morning, mainly
north of m-59 if precipitation rates are sufficiently high enough to
wet bulb/saturate the initially above freezing warm layer (2-6 kft
per NAM soundings). If that narrow but potentially intense 700 mb
fgen materializes, a narrow swath of wet snow accumulation is
possible for Thursday morning commute, best shot along and north of
i-69 corrdidor, but local SREF weighted probablistic guidance
suggests rain, with low chance of snow north of i-69.

Low pressure pushing east across northern ohio will bring the
continued chance for rain on Friday as it pushes east into new
england. The chance for rain is expected to diminish through the late
morning and afternoon hours, as a surface high starts to edge in
from the west. The weekend looks to be shaping up to be a nice one,
as cloud cover gradually diminishes and temperatures warm-up slightly
into the mid- 50s for a high. Temperatures are expected to climb
into the upper 50s to lower 60s for the early half of next week as se
winds usher in milder air.

Low pressure pushing NE from texas into the ohio valley Monday into
Tuesday will bring the next chance for rain. There are slight
variations regarding the track of the low, however, long-range
models are showing convergence regarding precipitation Monday night
into Tuesday. Additional rain showers will be possible as a second
low develops from the central plains into michigan Tuesday into
Wednesday. Confidence is much lower regarding this system as the gem
holds off on this potential system until late next week.

Marine...

existing moderate northerly flow /15 to 20 kts/ over the southern
lake huron basin will gradually ease tonight as high pressure starts
to build into the region. Winds will hold from the northeast
through Wednesday as this high settles in. Wind speeds will remain
more modest during this time. Winds will strengthen out of the east
beginning Thursday as the region settles between this high pressure
system and approaching low pressure. A period of moderate winds
will continue through Friday as this low tracks through the ohio
valley. The increased gustiness and prolonged onshore flow will
likely result in small craft advisory conditions during this time.

Gusts over the lake huron openwaters currently expected to peak at
around 30 knots.

Hydrology...

moisture will expand into the region on Thursday as low pressure
tracks into the ohio valley. This will result in widespread
rainfall Thursday and Thursday night. Rainfall may linger through
early Friday. At this time, rainfall amounts are forecast to range
between 0.5 and 0.75 inches. The potential for locally upwards of
an inch will be possible.

Dtx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Dg
discussion... Sf/am
marine... ... .Mr
hydrology... .Mr
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 43 mi51 min E 7 G 8.9 43°F 1021.9 hPa37°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 65 mi81 min N 11 G 12 42°F 1022.7 hPa (+2.4)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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G9
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E2
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Municipal Airport, MI16 mi28 minN 410.00 miFair40°F34°F79%1023.1 hPa
Adrian, Lenawee County Airport, MI19 mi28 minNNW 59.00 miFair38°F36°F93%1023.7 hPa

Wind History from ARB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6N6N6NW6NW9NW10N7NW9N8N10N8N7N10N9N10N8NW9NW9NW8NW8NW5NW3N4N4
1 day agoS5S5S5SW4S5S6SW4S3S7SW5SW9----SW10--SW8SW9--SW4W4W3NW5N7N6
2 days agoE10E10NE8NE10NE73NE5NE6NE7NE7E6SE10E5E7E9SE5E4E4E5E3CalmSE3SE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.