Monday, May21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manchester, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 8:57PM Monday May 21, 2018 10:08 PM EDT (02:08 UTC) Moonrise 11:34AMMoonset 1:05AM Illumination 47% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ444 Michigan Waters Of Lake Erie From Detroit River To North Cape Mi- 1002 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Rest of tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the north early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy early in the morning...then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the west in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening...then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lake forecast for days 3 through 5. The water temperature at belle isle is 77.4 degrees.
LEZ444 Expires:201707230900;;229447 FZUS63 KDTX 230203 GLFSC GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1001 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A broad area of low pressure...29.70 inches...will slowly track across Lower Michigan through Sunday. The system will exit to the east Sunday night, pulling a cold front through the central Great Lakes late Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure...30.20 inches...then builds into the area Monday and Tuesday. LEZ444-230900-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manchester, MI
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location: 42.15, -84.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 220147
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
947 pm edt Mon may 21 2018

Update
Scattered showers continue tonight in weaker isentropic ascent and
low level moisture transport ahead of low pressure moving in from
northern illinois. This low will move through southern lower michigan
late tonight and Tuesday morning as the associated upper circulation
moves in from the midwest. Evening satellite imagery and short term
model fields show an energetic closed circulation not really
weakening but just opening up and still able to provide dynamic
support, and perhaps slightly steeper mid level lapse rates, as it
moves toward the southern great lakes late tonight and Tuesday
morning. The suite of rap, hrrr, arw, and nmm output are in loose
agreement on an uptick in convection during the late night through
mid morning as the surface low track brings the warm sector as far
north as the i-69 corridor. The modeled convective response to the
resulting surface based instability may be slightly overdone given
the time of night but does illustrate the potential for at least an
increase in shower coverage during this time and until the trailing
front moves east of the region toward early afternoon. The remainder
of the forecast also looks good with the mention of fog as the
surface low moves directly overhead.

Prev discussion
Issued at 757 pm edt Mon may 21 2018
aviation...

the primary area of rain exiting east of the terminal corridor
leaves only scattered light showers behind through midnight. While
there is a break in shower coverage, surface low pressure moves
toward the south end of lake michigan by midnight and pulls the
associated warm front to the ohio border. The approach of these
features allows MVFR ceiling to increase coverage over SE michigan
with a transition to ifr before sunrise. There is a late evening and
late night chance of thunderstorms as the low moves toward and
through SE michigan. Plan to preserve evening storm timing with this
issuance and monitor for inclusion of overnight activity in later
updates. A modest improvement into MVFR is then expected as the low
exits and the wind turns northwest during Tuesday afternoon.

For dtw... MVFR ceiling will move in from the west and fall to ifr
overnight through Tuesday morning. As press time showers move east,
scattered showers follow tonight with a narrow late evening and late
night window for thunderstorms. Ifr improves to MVFR as the wind
turns northwest Tuesday afternoon.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less tonight through Tuesday.

* moderate for thunderstorms late evening. Low late tonight.

Prev discussion...

issued at 331 pm edt Mon may 21 2018
discussion...

near term rest of today through tonight
as of 330 pm edt... An area of low pressure currently situated near
the quad cities continues to slowly move northeast towards the
region, with a remnant early morning MCS qg-forced rain shield out
ahead of it across lower michigan. Much of the day so far has been
dry, as surface high pressure that built in from the north overnight
brought in dry low-level air that has taken the morning to saturate
the column. Increasing cloud cover throughout the day has limited
high temperatures, with highs topping out in the 60s for most areas.

The rain will continue to spread eastward over southeast michigan
through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening hours. A
mainly soaking rain is expected through the evening, as surface, and
to an extent, elevated instability will be lacking. Still, embedded
heavier showers will be capable of locally heavy downpours, which
may lead to ponding of water on roadways and some poor drainage
flooding concerns.

Hi-res guidance has been in generally good agreement that the best
chance for thunder will be from 00z-06z as elevated instability
increases as the low approaches. However, more widespread rain and
embedded thunder looks likely to be impinged by the system's dry
slot during the early overnight period, which will likely act to
decrease convective coverage mainly south of the i-69 corridor.

Further north, midlevel frontal forcing will act to keep more
steadier rain ongoing through much of the night. The approach of
trailing midlevel energy should lead to redevelopment of scattered
showers and isolated storms for the latter part of tonight into
early Tuesday morning. The surface low track looks to basically pass
over southern lower michigan, which will allow winds to decrease and
with rain copious low-level moisture, patchy fog will be possible at
times late this evening through much of the night. Low temperatures
tonight will settle in the 50s.

Short term Tuesday through Thursday night
the area of low pressure and trailing upper-level energy will
continue to slowly exit the region for much of the day Tuesday, with
showers possibly lingering into the afternoon hours before ending
from west to east as the cold front and midlevel dry punch swing
through. During the morning hours, dewpoints look to surge into the
lower 60s across southern areas which will help keep the shower
potential going through at least the first half of Tuesday. Embedded
thunder cannot be ruled out as well as showalter indices dip below
0. Lingering cloud cover will keep temperatures at bay, with 60s
across most areas, with low to mid 70s possible detroit metro and
locations south.

Confluent flow across the northeast CONUS and rising heights
downstream across the upper midwest will allow high pressure to
build in at the surface Tuesday night. With decreasing winds and
lingering near surface moisture, fog will be possible, but
confidence is not quite there yet to include in the grids. Low
temperatures Tuesday night will settle into the mid 40s to mid 50s.

High pressure and stable upper-level northwest flow will lead to a
quiet and dry period of weather Wednesday and continuing through
Thursday night, as the upper ridge axis remains anchored over the
upper midwest. With mostly clear skies during this period,
temperatures will rebound with highs Wednesday well into the 70s and
reaching into the lower and possibly mid 80s Thursday. The high will
slowly shift eastward Wednesday and Thursday, allowing for
southwesterly return flow to set up Thursday.

Long term Friday through Sunday
the high will continue sliding off to the east Friday with
southwesterly flow strengthening in between the departing high and
an area of low pressure approaching the upper great lakes. This area
of low pressure will be accompanied by pieces of northern stream
energy that will help to drive the low pressure system southward
towards the region during the weekend. A period of unsettled weather
will be possible over the weekend with scattered showers and storms,
although there still remains uncertainty in the amount of available
moisture to work with.

Temperatures will be warmest on Friday with the brisk southwesterly
flow, as most areas could see high temperatures reach into the mid
80s. Upper 70s to lower 80s temperatures will continue into the
memorial day holiday weekend.

Marine...

high pressure over lake huron will depart to the east as a broad
area of low pressure tracks into southern michigan tonight. A warm
front extending east from the low will lift across lake erie tonight
supporting light and variable winds and widespread showers.

Meanwhile light easterly flow will develop over lake huron tonight.

As the low tracks east away from the region, the flow will back from
northeast to north through the day on Tuesday across lake huron.

Waves are expected to remain below 2 feet through Tuesday. High
pressure will then build across the southern great lakes on
Wednesday causing winds to back from northwest to west across
northern lake huron while becoming light and variable elsewhere.

Hydrology...

widespread showers, locally heavy at times, will track across
southeast michigan late this afternoon and evening. Additional
scattered showers will then be possible through tonight along with a
few thunderstorms mainly south of interstate 69. A widespread three
tenths to six tenths of rainfall is expected to fall from late this
afternoon through Tuesday morning across southeast michigan. A few
localized spots, mainly south of interstate 69, could see rainfall
amounts approaching one inch through Tuesday morning.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Update... ... .Bt
aviation... ..Bt
discussion... Irl
marine... ... .Jd
hydrology... .Jd
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 43 mi51 min E 12 G 15 58°F 1018.3 hPa51°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 65 mi69 min NNE 6 G 7 58°F 1019.6 hPa (-1.7)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Municipal Airport, MI16 mi76 minNE 39.00 miLight Rain51°F46°F86%1018.7 hPa
Adrian, Lenawee County Airport, MI19 mi76 minESE 810.00 miOvercast54°F52°F93%1018.9 hPa

Wind History from ARB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3SE3SE4CalmNE3NE4NE3NE3NE4NE5NE7NE10NE9NE9E4E7E6E7SE4NE6NE8N7NE3E4
1 day agoW6W7W9NW6NW6W6NW7NW7NW5N4N5CalmW3W4NW5CalmN45N6N6N7N3N4E4
2 days agoE9
G16
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NE5NE8NE6NE6NE5E84E5E4S6S7S9SW8S6S9SW4SW6W12W9W7W8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.