Sunrise 6:39 AM   Sunset 8:28 PM Moonrise 8:35 PM   Moonset 5:47 AM

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LEZ444 Michigan Waters Of Lake Erie From Detroit River To North Cape Mi- 1002 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Rest of tonight - West winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the north early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.Sunday - Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy early in the morning - .then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less. Sunday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the west in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening - .then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning. Waves around 2 feet or less. Monday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
see lake erie open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
the water temperature at belle isle is 77.4 degrees.

LEZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 240347 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1147 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy late tonight with gusts up to 30 mph in the Thumb.

- A Freeze Watch is in effect for all of southeast MI late Wednesday night through early Thursday morning as overnight lows dip into the upper 20s.

- Rain chances increase Friday night as a series of lows lift into the upper Midwest. There is low confidence in shower and thunderstorm potential Saturday and Sunday.

AVIATION

The region of rain showers with a few lingering thunderstorms will exit to the east of the terminals by 06Z. Low level moisture advection in the wake of this area of rain will increase the probabilities for MVFR based cloud development. An upper wave will drive a cold front across the area overnight. There will be a veering of the winds to the north-northeast with the passage of this front. Post frontal cold air advection and ample low level moisture will sustain widespread MVFR based stratus well into Wed morning. A little bit of post frontal moisture and flux off Lake Huron will contribute to some light rain/snow showers or drizzle from PTK northward Wed morning.

For DTW/D21 Convection...The showers and isolated thunderstorms will be be exiting the airspace between 04Z and 06Z per recent observational trends. A push of colder air will arrive within strengthening north winds after 12Z Wed morning. Wind gusts will top 20 knots.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High in ceilings aob 5000 overnight into early Wed afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 349 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

DISCUSSION...

Frontal forcing has lifted into southern lower Michigan, with a band of steady rain filling into Lenawee and Monroe Counties as of issuance. This band is expected to hold along/south of I-94 before shearing southeast late this evening. Attention then turns to the cumulus field upstream across northern lower MI-WI-MN where convective cells have been developing over the past couple hours invof the mid-level wave and trailing cold front. Expectation is for these showers and thunderstorms to move into the Tri Cities and Thumb region between 22-00z (6-8pm local) and track southeast across the rest of the cwa tonight. Steep mid level lapse rates approach 8 C/km upstream, which will advect into northern portions of the cwa and be the main catalyst for a stronger updraft or two this evening.
Widespread strong storms are not expected, however, as low instability will struggle to maintain updrafts in such high shear.

The upper level trough and surface front will slide southeast into Lake Erie by daybreak Wednesday, ushering out any lingering showers.
Breezy conditions linger through the morning, especially around the Thumb region where gusts may approach 30 mph. Morning lows will reflect post-frontal cold advection, as some spots around the Tri Cities and Thumb will see temperatures near freezing and wind chills in the teens. Standard subsidence inversion settles between 3.0-5.0 kft agl, initially trapping leftover moisture and maintaining a thick stratus deck for the morning. A much drier low level airmass then advects south Wednesday afternoon, dropping PWAT values below 0.25" (below the 10th percentile per SPC climo) and quickly mixing out clouds by afternoon. H8 temperatures dropping into the single digits during the day leads to a range of temperatures from near 40 degrees in the Thumb to low 50s for inland and urban locations.

Dry weather persists through mid-day Friday as heights build and a roughly 1030 mb surface high stalls overhead. Opportunities for cloud cover remain limited, with just a glancing stream of high cloud moving in Thursday invof a low amplitude wave. Main concern during this time window is sub-freezing temperatures (upper 20s)
Thursday morning, in which a Freeze Watch has been issued overnight Wednesday through Thursday morning.

Benign conditions come to an end Friday afternoon as the next storm system ejects out of the Plains and into the Upper Midwest. The primary circulation will stay well to our west, but will push the warm conveyor and associated moist isentropic upglide right overhead by Friday evening. A strong low level jet, 40-45 knots at 850 mb, contributes to substantial warm advection and moisture transport into the area at this point, increasing confidence in a period of widespread rain Friday night and a gradual warm up through the weekend. Temperatures Saturday and Sunday look to climb comfortably into the 70s.

Precipitation prospects for the weekend offer much less certainty, beginning with a mid-level dry slot that arrives Saturday morning.
This creates a highly conditional convective setup in which available long-range guidance struggles with depth and magnitude of static stability within the dry slot. If the atmosphere is dry and capped (e.g. 00z Euro), convection would struggle to initiate and be reliant on a warm/moist boundary layer that may not come to fruition. On the other hand, favorable return flow and opportunity for the SE CONUS ridge to direct embedded shortwaves toward lower MI (e.g. 12z GFS) Saturday and Sunday will warrant monitoring for thunderstorm potential.

MARINE...

A Small Craft Advisory will expire at 4 PM today as gusty winds and heightened waves diminish into the evening hours. Surface low pressure associated with an upper level disturbance crossing the Midwest has shifted south, becoming more diffuse over The Straits as a secondary surface low emerges further west. Expect some additional rounds of showers this evening, including the potential for a few thunderstorms that could result in locally higher winds/waves. Most of the convective activity should develop ahead of the system's cold front through before colder post-frontal air filters overnight. This leads to brisk northerly flow and low-end potential for gusts to gales while lapse rates steepen and forecast soundings are well- mixed once stronger LLJ winds clip central Lake Huron. Will likely issue another Small Craft Advisory for Saginaw Bay and The Thumb with the evening marine update. Gradient winds trend lower midday Wednesday before high pressure starts building into the Great Lakes.
More favorable marine conditions are expected Thursday with sustained ridging until Friday. Unsettled weather returns Saturday, dependent on trajectory of a large low pressure system ejecting from The Plains.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ421-422- 441>443.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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