Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manchester, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:58AMSunset 5:33PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 2:15 AM EST (07:15 UTC) Moonrise 7:35AMMoonset 5:22PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ444 Michigan Waters Of Lake Erie From Detroit River To North Cape Mi- 1002 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Rest of tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the north early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy early in the morning...then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the west in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening...then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lake forecast for days 3 through 5. The water temperature at belle isle is 77.4 degrees.
LEZ444 Expires:201707230900;;677433 FZUS63 KDTX 230203 GLFSC GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1001 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A broad area of low pressure...29.70 inches...will slowly track across Lower Michigan through Sunday. The system will exit to the east Sunday night, pulling a cold front through the central Great Lakes late Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure...30.20 inches...then builds into the area Monday and Tuesday. LEZ444-230900-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manchester, MI
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location: 42.15, -84.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 160455
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1155 pm est Mon jan 15 2018

Aviation
Areas of light snow showers and flurries will continue to develop
across the region overnight. Conditions generally at MVFRVFR
restrictions given the light intensity, with minimal accumulation.

Potential for a more localized focus for some heavier snow showers
will be tied to convergence that develops during the early and mid
morning hours along a stalled frontal boundary. Ifr conditions
plausible should these snow showers materialize, greatest potential
detroit corridor up through ptk. Passage of a surface trough will
provide a secondary focus for snow shower development on Tuesday. A
possible diurnal contribution to the coverage will make all
terminals susceptible to scattered to numerous snow showers lasting
through late Tuesday.

For dtw... Light snow showers and flurries will persist overnight.

There remains the potential for a brief increase in intensity near a
frontal boundary during the early-mid morning period, but confidence
in occurrence remains low.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for cig AOB 5kft

Prev discussion
Issued at 854 pm est Mon jan 15 2018
update...

southeast michigan to hold position overnight within the broad
eastern cyclonic extension of an elongated trough closed low
currently residing over northern il southern wi. Earlier spike in
associated cva prompting an uptick in dentrite production and
subsequent flake size now exiting to the east. The underlying moist
cyclonic flow aided by favorable thermal placement of a moist layer
supersaturated with respect to ice with sustain lower intensity
light snow showers or flurries through the night. A more localized
focus for higher intensity snow showers may emerge within the
convergence axis governed by placement of the inbound cold frontal
occlusion set to stall over lower michigan overnight and early
Tuesday. Not a convincing signal per recent model guidance to suggest
a strong response, as would be more typical if this were a lake
convergence band. Nonetheless, potential does exist for some heavier
snow showers to eventually develop during the morning period
somewhere within the i-94 to i-69 corridor. Those locations will be
susceptible to a quick accumulation inch range . Otherwise, a
general accumulation at half inch or less expected moving forward
overnight.

Prev discussion...

issued at 307 pm est Mon jan 15 2018
discussion...

a lead mid level short impulse associated with an upper low now over
the upper mississippi valley has been pivoting from south to north
across the forecast area this afternoon. Decent mid level height
falls and strongly difluent upper level flow have sustained light
snow throughout the day. While strong moist isentropic ascent has
shifted across ohio within the warm conveyor, a narrow ribbon of
better ascent developed along the lead edge of the mid level PV max,
resulting in a brief period of higher intensity snowfall rates now
lifting northward across SE mi as of 19z. The water vapor loop shows
a region of mid level dry air now approaching the mi in oh border,
set to lift across SE mi during the evening behind the mid level
short wave feature. The result will be a gradual decrease in the
areal coverage of the light snow. By this time, total accumulations
since this morning of around 2 inches still seems reasonable.

The upper low is forecast to elongate as it rotates into lower mi by
tues morning, while the associated surface low extends across
roughly the i-94 corridor as it stretches into SRN ontario overnight.

Although the mid level moisture will strip away this evening, ample
low level moisture will reside across SE mi through the night. The
low level airmass will be cold enough for ice nucleation within
these lower clouds. So while the more widespread light snow
diminishes this evening with waning synoptic scale ascent,
increasing forcing in the boundary layer will result in nmrs to sct
snow showers. The greater focus will be across metro detroit ann
arbor and points south with the approach of the sfc low and
associated sfc trough axis. The region of ascent in these showers
will be focused more within the thermal regime for good dendrites,
so snowfall rates are likely to be greater than what occurred earlier
today. This suggests at least some additional minor accums tonight.

The elongated upper low will gradually push off to the east late
tues tues night. The associated surface low will in turn exit to the
east of the region. There will however be a couple lingering surface
troughs holding back across SE mi, providing a focus for sct to nmrs
snow showers to persist through tues afternoon. Steepening low level
lapse rates due to diurnal contributions may support some brief
intense snowfall, warranting at least minor (less than one inch)
accums. Lake enhancement under northerly flow may however support
locally high totals across NE huron county. Overall expect little
variation in temps this evening through Tuesday with persistent cloud
cover and limited thermal advections.

Weak ridging ahead of a quick-moving shortwave trough will bring dry
conditions midweek. Recent model guidance then indicates the
shortwave will quickly move across lower michigan Thursday night.

With limited moisture available, impacts will be limited to an
increase in cloud cover with a few light showers at most before dry
conditions return to end the workweek. High pressure centered over
the southeast us will allow return southwesterly flow to begin
advecting milder air into the region during the late week period with
highs reaching the upper 30s by Friday.

An upper level trough digging into the southwestern us on
Saturday will induce lee cyclogenesis over the southern plains. This
low pressure system will further strengthen southwesterly flow over
the region advecting warmer, moister air northward through the
weekend. This will allow temperatures to warm further into the 40s
both Saturday and Sunday. However, the increased moisture will lead
to cloudy, damp conditions with increasing shower chances late
Saturday into Sunday.

Marine...

southeast winds will gradually decrease during the night as low
pressure tracks into far southern lower michigan. The low will track
into southern ontario late tonight into Tuesday morning. This will
result in a veering of the winds to the north-northeast. While
colder air will spill across the lake in the wake of this low, a
decreasing gradient will keep peak wind gusts under 25 knots. A
strengthening southwesterly gradient will develop mid week as strong
high pressure slides across the southern us and a slow moving cold
front pushes across northern ontario. Warmer air advancing across
the lakes will inhibit mixing depths, thus the chances for gale
force wind gusts Wed and thurs appear too low to carry a gale watch.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Drk
update... ... .Mr
discussion... Sc jd
marine... ... .Sc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 43 mi46 min WSW 11 G 16 14°F 1026.3 hPa9°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 65 mi76 min Calm G 0 20°F 1025.7 hPa (-0.0)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Municipal Airport, MI16 mi23 minSSW 56.00 miFog/Mist18°F17°F96%1026.5 hPa
Adrian, Lenawee County Airport, MI19 mi23 minW 89.00 miOvercast14°F8°F77%1028 hPa

Wind History from ARB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE8E7E6E7E8E8E9E7E10E9E7E8E8E5E5E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5S5SW5
1 day agoSW3CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmS4SE9S9S10S9S7SE9SE7S8SE5SE8SE7SE7SE6SE6SE7SE7
2 days agoNW17
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NW6W4NW66NW7W7NW8W7NW7W5W7NW5W4W4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.