Tuesday, April24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lakeview, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:09AMSunset 8:00PM Tuesday April 24, 2018 5:13 AM PDT (12:13 UTC) Moonrise 1:15PMMoonset 2:32AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lakeview, OR
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location: 42.19, -120.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 240847
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
147 am pdt Tue apr 24 2018

Discussion A rapid warm up will continue through wedensday. In
fact, we could see MAX temperatures ranging between 15-20 degrees
above normal today and Wednesday, with near record highs possible
across the region.

While the thermal trough has expanded into our area, the
associated pressure gradient has weakened, and offshore flow has
diminished. With this change, a southerly wind surge has begun
along the coast. Typically, these surges are accompanied by low
level stratus invading the coastline, but latest observations show
no sign of such a cloud deck yet. The closest low marine clouds
are well south of CAPE mendocino, but that does not mean we
couldn't see rapid development of clouds this morning or today.

The marine stratus is then expected to slowly march northward
through tonight.

Meanwhile dry and very warm weather will continue through Wednesday
for many inland locations as the thermal trough shifts inland over
the west side valleys. Wednesday should be the warmest day of the
forecast period with a few spots touching 90 degrees in the rogue
valley, mid to upper 80s in the umpqua basin, and upper 70s to near
80 degrees east of the cascades. The record highs in medford for
today and Wednesday are 90 and 91 degrees respectively. The
current forecast highs are just below these values, but only by a
degree or two. Meanwhile, in roseburg, the record highs for today
and Wednesday are 82 and 84 degrees, both of which are expected to
be beat by several degrees.

The next area of concern is the location of the upper low that will
be lurking offshore Wednesday night through Thursday. There's better
agreement among the models with the position and track of the cutoff
low, but still some differences. The low will slowly inch eastward
towards our forecast area Wednesday night through Thursday. None of
the models are showing any obvious signs of instability ahead of the
cutoff low and the best dynamics will still be offshore, so we'll
keep it dry Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Things could interesting on Thursday, especially in the afternoon
and evening. The general consensus is for increasing instability
along with a trigger mainly east of the cascades. The models may
be too bullish with the amount of instability along the cascades
from crater lake north, especially given the fact there is still
some snow pack there, but some elevated instability could still
trigger an isolated storm or two. Therefore, have kept a slight
chance of thunderstorms in the forecast along and east of the
cascades. The coverage area of showers is expected to increase
Thursday night as the upper low moves closer to the oregon coast.

Model guidance continues to be in decent agreement regarding the
closed low as it tracks onshore Friday and passes directly over
the region this weekend. As deterministic solutions look similar
to each other as well as their respective ensembles, confidence
in the unsettled, but cooler, weekend remains high.

What this means in terms of weather on Friday is a marked increase
in the potential for showers, noticeably cooler weather, and
lowering snow levels. There are, of course, some difference in the
details, but regardless of the model choice, southerly flow ahead of
the upper low should target the mountains over central siskiyou
county on up into the oregon cascades for the most shower activity.

In addition, instability and dynamics will be favorable for
thunderstorms on Friday afternoon and evening, especially in the
mountains and east side. Under a southeast flow pattern aloft, it's
not inconceivable that a storms drifts out over the west side, but
the chance of that is low enough that we'll keep it out of the
forecast for now. Just keep in mind that it's possible on Friday.

As mentioned yesterday: model differences notwithstanding, the
low will move in over the weekend and result in cool, showery
weather area-wide. It's really only a question of whether it comes
right in and produces a lot of valley rain and mountain snow
showers or, as upper lows often do, drifts in south of us and
deals us only a glancing blow. A direct hit from the upper low
seems slightly more likely this time, and pops remain on the high
side, with considerably lower temperatures. There will still be a
chance for thunderstorms over the weekend, but it doesn't look
overly exciting due to instability-limiting factors such as cloud
cover and mountain snow pack. Early next week we get into drier
northwest flow behind the departing upper low which will help us
warm up and dry out. -bpn map trw

Aviation 24 06z TAF cycle... Oth is the main forecast challenge as
moisture is moving into the area behind the thermal trough that has
lifted into northern oregon coast. Models have been inconsistent at
flight categories with some introducing lifr tonight then backing
off completely. This forecast is more of a hedge with MVFR
visibility and scattered very low clouds tonight. However this may
be the case where oth will go down hard to lifr or not at all.

ElsewhereVFR conditions continue under clear skies. -fb

Marine Updated 200 am pdt Tuesday 24 april 2018... Conditions will
be relatively calm through Friday. Seas will increase this morning
to around 8 to 9 feet at 15 seconds as west swell builds into the
waters, but conditions will remain below small craft advisory. Seas
subside late this evening through Wednesday. Winds will remain
light, generally below 15 knots with weak low pressure over the
waters, but will become southerly late tonight and continue through
the week. Small craft conditions could be possible again next
weekend as northwest swell will builds in. Br-y

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... None.

Bpn map trw mnf fjb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lake County Airport, OR3 mi21 minN 010.00 miFair39°F17°F41%969.7 hPa

Wind History from LKV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN14N14N17
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1 day agoN13N12N16
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N13NW83CalmNE6N5NW6N13N9N8N10N10N12--N12N12N13N12N15
2 days agoCalmW3------------------------------N16N16
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.