Thursday, March21, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Lakeview, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 7:21PM Thursday March 21, 2019 3:09 PM PDT (22:09 UTC) Moonrise 7:18PMMoonset 6:48AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lakeview, OR
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location: 42.19, -120.35     debug

Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 212136
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
236 pm pdt Thu mar 21 2019

Short term Tonight through Sunday night... The band of clouds
across lake, modoc, and northern klamath counties continue as part
of a tail to a low pressure system centered well off the coast of
vancouver, british columbia. A few light showers may be
associated with this cloud band, but overall expect things to be
light, if any. In fact, precipitation may dry up completely
tonight as the upper low departs and the next front approaches the

On Friday, the next front arrives and will bring widespread valley
rain and high mountain snow to the region. Precipitation amounts
don't look impressive, but eventually everyone should see some
measurable rain or snow with this front. That being said, the
heaviest amounts will be along the coast and the coastal range,
where brookings could see up to three quarters of an inch of rain
with this system. Although it may not do much to well-established
roads, it will be curious to see how the slide on highway 101
reacts to this bit of rain. As this more active pattern will
continue for the next several days. Snow levels will be around
5000 feet, and could drop to 4000 feet in showers on Saturday.

Overall, not expecting any impacts for the passes, but there could
be some light snow, even on siskiyou summit.

This front will also bring breezy conditions to many of the usual
areas. It doesn't look like any land areas will reach advisory
level wind speeds, but it will be breezy and gusty nonetheless.

The front moves through Friday night, then the upper trough will
move overhead Saturday with considerable shower activity expected.

A slight chance for thunderstorms exists on the west side
Saturday afternoon and evening as instability and moisture will be
plentiful enough. It is worth noting that the models are also
indicating these conditions across the cascades and eastward, but
snow depths of several inches (to feet) are great at dampening the
surface based instability.

As things clear out on Saturday night, low temperatures will drop
very low. Lows will be in the low 30s west of the cascades with
mid to upper 30s at the coast. Meanwhile, temperatures will be
well-below freezing across the cascades and east. Although growing
season has not officially started, except for many of the early
varieties (which can largely handle these temperatures), there
could be some frost cold temperature issues if you were impatient
like me and got some plants early during last weekend's warm-up.

Although Sunday morning will be dry, the next system appears to
arrive by Sunday afternoon or evening. The main impacts of this
system will occur on Monday, and is detailed well in the long
term discussion. -schaaf

Long term Monday through Thursday, march 25-28, 2019...

unsettled weather is expected much of next week, though we may
catch a break on Tuesday.

The upper level pattern will feature a broad closed low out around
45n and 140w on Monday. A frontal system associated with this low
will move onshore Monday morning and through the area bringing a
period of steadier precipitation across most of the CWA through
Monday evening. Heaviest precipitation will be from the coast ranges
of SW oregon to western and central siskiyou county, where amounts
of 0.50-1.50 inches are likely. Snow levels still look to be about
4500 feet with most accumulating snow occurring above 5000 feet.

Expect a period of steady south to southeast winds pre-front in the
morning, then winds shift to SW and remain breezy as the front moves
through. Precipitation becomes more showery following the frontal
passage. We've added a slight chance of thunder to the immediate
coast and coastal waters as mid-level instability increases behind
the front.

We're expecting broad SW flow aloft to set up over the area
Monday night into Tuesday, and while isolated to scattered
showers could remain, most areas should catch a break in between
fronts. The closed low will pinwheel southeastward offshore sending
another short wave impulse and frontal system through the area
mainly Tuesday night through Wednesday. Once again, the bulk of the
moisture precipitation is expected across our southern and western
zones, but areas to the north will see some precipitation too.

A showery pattern will continue with moist, onshore flow Wednesday
night through Thursday as the closed low offshore gradually opens up
into a trough and crosses the pacnw. -spilde

Aviation For the 21 18z tafs...VFR is expected to prevail
across the region through the afternoon. A front will approach the
area overnight with MVFR ceilings, increasing south winds, and
precipitation arriving at the coast overnight. Deteriorating
conditions will spread east through the morning, with rain
overspreading all terminals by midday Friday. Freezing levels are
expected to remain well above 5000 ft asl throughout the taf
period. -bpn

Marine Updated 200 pm pdt Thursday, 21 march 2019... Offshore
buoys are beginning to detect the arrival of long period swell
this afternoon, which will continue to build into the coastal
waters through this evening and tonight. Meanwhile, satellite
imagery shows a front lying offshore, which will push into the
region tonight and pass onshore Friday. Expected south gales and
very steep wind driven seas to develop ahead of the front as it
sweeps across the waters Friday morning though Friday afternoon.

Elevated long period west swell will continue through Saturday and
into Saturday night, producing hazardous bar conditions and
higher than average surf before diminishing Sunday morning.

After a brief break in the action Sunday, another robust frontal
system is expected to arrive Monday, but the latest model solutions
suggest it could weaken significantly as it arrives. Due to the
weakening trend of the front, timing and strength are likely to
change over the next several forecast cycles, but gales may be
possible Monday morning, with steep to very steep seas persisting
into Monday night. Conditions should improve by Tuesday, but long-
term guidance suggests unsettled weather will continue into next
week, although exact details are uncertain at this time. -bpn

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Beach hazards statement through late tonight for orz021-022.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory from 5 pm Friday to 11 am pdt Sunday for

Gale warning from 8 am to 5 pm pdt Friday for

Hazardous seas warning from 8 am to 5 pm pdt Friday for

Hazardous seas warning from 11 pm this evening to 5 pm pdt
Friday for pzz370-376.

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lake County Airport, OR3 mi16 minVar 510.00 miMostly Cloudy44°F36°F73%1017 hPa

Wind History from LKV (wind in knots)
1 day agoE15E11E10E9E10E9
2 days agoNE3W4CalmE7W4N5SW6S5W4E9N64NW8NW8NW734E13

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.