Sunday, May26, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Lakeview, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:34AMSunset 8:33PM Sunday May 26, 2019 12:32 AM PDT (07:32 UTC) Moonrise 1:00AMMoonset 11:37AM Illumination 52% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lakeview, OR
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location: 42.19, -120.35     debug

Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 260544
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
1045 pm pdt Sat may 25 2019
updated aviation section

Discussion An update to the forecast was issued this evening
to fine tune the probability of precipitation and expected cloud
cover through early next week. This included adding a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms for klamath falls on Monday

The weather this evening is proceeding as forseen with light to
moderate showers over a wide swath of the area. This includes a
limited occurrence of thunderstorms (though with a widespread area
with a slight risk) with a few strikes reported in lake county
and another cell now strengthening south of mount shasta that
looks to be of sufficient strength to produce lightning.

Many of the showers will now be at peak intensity with the center of
a broad closed low now along the oregon coast. There will also be
unseasonably low snow levels overnight at around 5500 feet. The
higher passes, including around diamond lake crater lake, lake of
the woods, and mount shasta could have a slushy accumulation of snow
late tonight with a few inches of accumulation off of the warmer
road surfaces. Snowfall is likely to be most significant on mount
shasta with 6 to 10 inches possible through 8 am Sunday. Thus, a
winter weather advisory is in effect for the lake of the woods
area and a winter storm warning for the vicinity of mount shasta.

The majority of showers will taper off during Sunday morning as the
low continues its south to southeast track to around san francisco.

As such, the heaviest precipitation will be south of our area on
Sunday and there will be a brief minimum of shower activity during
late Sunday morning. But, wrap-around showers and isolated
thunderstorms on the north side of the low will intensify and
increase in coverage in our area during Sunday afternoon and
evening. This activity will be most numerous from the cascades
eastward, but the steering flow will be northeasterly which may
shift storms off of the higher terrain into valleys between the
casades and the coastal range. Once again, showers will diminish
late Sunday night into Monday morning.

The upper level pattern will continue to change on Monday with the
main low headed toward las vegas. But, conditions will be very
similar to Sunday. The steering flow will back to northerly while
a strong shortwave on the back side of the low swings across the
area during the period of maximum heating late in the day. This
will result in increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms
during the afternoon and evening. Instability will be highest east
of the cascades.

The pattern will remain active and progressive at least through
Thursday evening with day-to-day variation in the extent and
coverage of the probability of showers and late day thunderstorms.

Aviation... For the 26 06z tafs...

for the 26 06z tafs... Expect widespread MVFR
overnight into Sunday morning with local ifr, periods of rain and
terrain obscured. Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible across
lake and modoc counties. The lowest cig vis is expected between from
now through 26 1200z with some improvement thereafter. Freezing
levels will be low enough that icing should be expected down to
about 5kft msl Sunday morning along and near the cascades. The
thunderstorm threat Sunday afternoon evening will be roughly from
the cascades eastward, but we can't completely rule out that
isolated storms drift south-southwestward off the cascades into
eastern douglas jackson counties. Conditions should improve toVFR
for most locations, but areas of MVFR will persist, especially in
and near showers t-storms. -spilde
marine... Updated 830 pm pdt Saturday, 25 may 2019... Steep to
very steep seas will be the primary concern across all of the
coastal waters through Sunday, although gusty north winds will be
an issue south of CAPE blanco. Winds will gradually diminish late
tonight through Sunday evening as an upper level disturbance
slides by, but will not calm below 10 to 15 knots until Monday
morning. Seas will likewise gradually improve, finally dropping
below 8 feet by Monday morning. Light winds and calmer seas are
then expected through Tuesday as high pressure builds in from the
west. The break will be brief, however, as north winds are
expected to increase once again Tuesday afternoon due to the re-
development of the coastal thermal trough. As a result, gusty
north winds and steep seas are likely through the latter half of
the week. -btl spilde

Prev discussion issued 457 pm pdt Sat may 25 2019
short term... Satellite imagery at 2:45 pm is showing an influx
of cirrus clouds filtering in west of the cascades and reaching
the very south reaches of siskiyou county in our forecast area.

Meanwhile, the satellite is showing clouds underneath these cirrus
north of the umpqua divide and at the coast north of port orford.

Concurrent radar imagery show that rain has already begun at the
coast and is moving ever closer to roseburg where rain is
imminent. The rain will further slide southward as a low pressure
system slides southward along the pacific coast. This low has an
upper level jet streak attached to it, so expect this low to
strengthen (or deepen as depicted by the models). Have gone ahead
and maintained the rainfall amounts tonight which will be rather
heavy for this time of year, but the one-after-another (or
training) storms seen in modoc county which prompted the flash
flood warning are not expected except in extremely isolated cases.

Still, expect rainfall with your evening outdoor activities.

Snow levels will come down to between 5000 and 5500 feet, so most
roadways will see rain, including siskiyou summit. That being
said, the pass near lake of the woods on highway 140 will see the
potential for some moderate snow overnight. Accumulations of 3 to
4 inches will be possible. Combined with the heat of the
roadways, this snow will become slushy and allow for cars to slide
more easily on the roadways. Have gone ahead an issued a winter
weather advisory for this area for tonight from 8 pm until 8 am.

Although snow may start before this, the heaviest snow will occur
between 11 pm tonight and 5 am Sunday morning.

The additional snow headline I want to discuss is for mt. Shasta
and the mt. Shasta highlands, including medicine lake area and the
mt. Shasta ski park. With the inevitable influx of out of area
hikers, have decided to issue a winter storm warning as mt. Shasta
area could see 6-10 inches of new snow in a 6 to 12 hour period.

Overnight camping and hiking are not recommended. Moreover, if you
are trekking across any of the mountains in this area, you should
be completing your trek within the next 1 to 3 hours (the further
south you are, the more time you have), and be off the mountains
by 4 or 6 pm. Please see the wswmfr for more details for the
winter storm warning and winter weather advisory.

Tomorrow and memorial day, the low will push farther south. This
will create easterly winds, but there will be the chances for more
showers and storms. The href ensemble shows thunderstorm
possibilities as far west as the rogue valley, stretching along a
line north to the cascade foothills in douglas county and south in
the shasta valley. The best chances for thunderstorms, however,
will be along and east of the cascades on both days. The boatnik
festival in grants pass may see a few showers both Sunday and
Monday, but the thunderstorm potential is extremely low.

Meanwhile, the air should dry out by the time it gets to the coast
and conditions could be relatively rain-free.

Things begin to dry out on Tuesday west of the cascades. The low
has pushed inland, and some showers and thunderstorms will be
possible Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly east of the
cascades. Temperatures will also have rebounded back to normal
as compared to today and tomorrow where they're several degrees
below normal. -schaaf
long term... Wed, may 29th through Sat night, jun 1st...

a slow, gradual warming trend from near normal temperatures to
temperatures about 5 degrees above normal is expected during the
long term period. This means most valley areas will be 70 to 80
degrees for highs, though the usually warmer valleys away from the
coast are expected to reach 80 to 85f by the end of the period. A
weak trough of low pressure will linger over the area through the
forecast period, with shortwave impulses moving through it. This
will result in showers and thunderstorms, primarily in the afternoon
and evening hours, every day from Wednesday through the weekend,
with the western edge of that threat pushing a bit southeastward
each day. Wednesday and Thursday currently look as if they'll be the
most convectively active days of the week. Btl

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Winter weather advisory until 8 am pdt Sunday for orz028.

Ca... Winter storm warning until 8 am pdt Sunday for caz082-083.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 5 am pdt
Monday for pzz350-356-370-376.

Hazardous seas warning until 2 am pdt Sunday for

Dw spilde

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lake County Airport, OR3 mi39 minN 1510.00 miLight Rain41°F37°F89%1004.2 hPa

Wind History from LKV (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNW10NW9N11N11N8N8N5N9N126SW3S9S9S9SE9
1 day agoNE3NE3SW4N4NW4CalmCalmSE6S8SE85SE10SW8
2 days agoN11N11N7N6N6N9N12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.