Thursday, January17, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Lakeview, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:30AMSunset 5:03PM Thursday January 17, 2019 9:29 AM PST (17:29 UTC) Moonrise 1:48PMMoonset 3:40AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lakeview, OR
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location: 42.19, -120.35     debug

Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 171653
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
853 am pst Thu jan 17 2019

Update Today's system will wind down through the day, but some
wind, snow, and wave hazards will persist into this evening. While
continuing to monitor the current storm, major forecast efforts
today will focus on the next system set to arrive tomorrow, and
the period of near continuous rain expected to last until Sunday.

The current forecasts appears to be right on track this morning,
so no updates are necessary. For more information and details
regarding the forecast, see the previous discussion below. -bpn

Aviation For the 17 12z tafs... Numerous to widespread showers
will continue across the area today through this evening as low
pressure offshore sends impulses onshore. Expect a mix of ifr, MVFR,
andVFR ceilings with gusty south to southwest winds and mountain
obscuration. The freezing level will fall to around 4500 ft msl.

Winds will subside and coverage of showers will lessen overnight.

Any clearing will aid in the development of low ceilings and or fog
in some of the western valleys by Friday morning. This may impact
roseburg and medford. -spilde

Marine Updated 800 am pst Thursday 17 january 2019...

extremely dangerous seas, peaking in excess of 30 feet, will be
accompanied by south to southwest gales today. Bar crossings and
the surf zone will be very hazardous due to strong currents and
breaking waves. Winds ease tonight, but seas remain very high with
dangerous bar conditions. Yet another front is likely to bring
additional gales and very steep seas Friday into Friday night with
only slight improvement Saturday. High and steep seas then
persist through the remainder of the weekend with the pattern
remaining active.

Conditions will improve Sunday night into Tuesday as high pressure
builds over the region. -spilde

Prev discussion issued 355 am pst Thu jan 17 2019
discussion... A potent low pressure continues moving northeast off
the pacnw coast this morning and this will continue to impact the
forecast area, bringing widespread showers, with snow above 4000
feet, and gusty winds through this evening. While it will be a
breezy day today, winds overall will be weaker than what occurred
Wednesday afternoon evening. The exception will be along the coast
and east of the cascades. As the low continues northeast, winds
will become more onshore, bringing gusty winds along the coast
through this morning with the strongest winds expected from cape
blanco south. East of the cascades, gusty south to southwest winds
will continue through this morning and gradually diminish this
afternoon. Wind headlines remain in effect for the previously
mentioned areas, and details can be found at npwmfr.

The main front associated with this low is north and east of the
forecast area, and the area will be under a more convective
influence today. Given the convective environment, a few embedded
thunderstorms are possible in these showers along the coast, and
isolated lightning strikes have already occurred in siskiyou and
curry counties during the last few hours. As the flow continues to
turn more southwesterly, this will focus the greatest amount of
precipitation along the coast today. However, the northern
portions of california will continue to see moderate rainfall
today as upslope flow enhances precipitation. Snow levels will
hover around 4000 to 4500 feet today, so periods of moderate to
heavy snow are expected to continue in siskiyou county through
this afternoon. Winter weather headlines remain in effect for
this, and details can be found at wswmfr.

While we expect the bulk of the snow to be above 4000 feet
through today, it's possible for snow to mix down temporarily to
lower elevations under heavier precipitation. This could mean some
wintry travel along i-5 near mt. Shasta city, including black
butte summit where 2 to 3 inches will be possible through this
evening. There may be some rain snow mix in mt. Shasta city, but
we aren't expecting much in the way of accumulation there.

Conditions will improve later this evening with showers tapering
off and winds diminishing. We'll catch a short break tonight into
Friday morning as a brief period of riding moves through. A warm
front will nudge into the area Friday afternoon and this will be
the start of a very wet period for the forecast area. Snow levels
will rise significantly with this warm front and by Friday
evening, snow levels will jump to around 7000 to 8000 feet. The
front will stall over the area, bringing an extended period of
moderate to heavy rain, especially along the coast and western
portions of siskiyou county. If current model total rainfall
projections are correct, flooding could be a concern during this
time period.

In addition to rainfall, another round of strong winds is possible
Friday afternoon. Gradients are favorable again for strong winds
along the coast and in the shasta and rogue valleys. However,
unlike the previous system, wind alignment is less favorable for
the rogue valley, so wind concerns will be for the more typical
places. 700 mb winds of 50 to 60 kt lends to concerns for strong
winds east of the cascades as well. Given the current headlines,
will let future shifts issue any necessary watches advisories for
this time frame. Br-y

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Wind advisory until 4 pm pst this afternoon for orz029>031.

High wind warning until 4 pm pst this afternoon for orz021-022.

High surf warning until 5 am pst Friday for orz021-022.

Ca... Wind advisory until 4 pm pst this afternoon for caz084-085.

Winter weather advisory until 10 pm pst this evening for

Winter storm warning until 10 pm pst this evening above 5500
feet in the for caz082.

Pacific coastal waters... Gale watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for

Gale warning until 4 pm pst this afternoon for

Hazardous seas warning from 4 pm this afternoon to 10 am pst
Friday for pzz350-356-370-376.

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lake County Airport, OR3 mi37 minSSE 910.00 miOvercast34°F32°F92%1007.8 hPa

Wind History from LKV (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS10S8S10S6S8S10S9S12S11S5S8S9S15
1 day agoCalmW3Calm3CalmSE6S6CalmS5CalmS3CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3S7S5SE5S6S5
2 days agoNW8W8W6NW4S6E7E14E12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.