Monday, June18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lakeview, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:28AMSunset 8:47PM Monday June 18, 2018 10:05 AM PDT (17:05 UTC) Moonrise 10:04AMMoonset 11:50PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lakeview, OR
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location: 42.19, -120.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 181550
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
850 am pdt Mon jun 18 2018

Update The main change for this morning was to add some detail
to the forecast. Specifically cloud cover where low level clouds
are in portions of the umpqua basin, illinois and rogue valley.

The low level clouds were a result of lingering low level
moisture in the atmosphere and temperatures falling to near or at
dewpoint values. These conditions were a result of moderate to
heavy rain as showers and thunderstorms moved north to south over
these areas yesterday evening.

Discussion The morning visible image shows plenty of cloud
cover east of the cascades as moisture on the west side of the
upper low wraps around. Also a solid marine deck (stratus) is over
the waters and along the coast and into the coquille basin. This
marine stratus will slowly peel back near the coast by this
afternoon and it' possible it could clear out briefly along the
coast. Any clearing won't last long with marine stratus expected
to return in the evening.

The upper low that was responsible for showers and thunderstorms
west of the cascades and also portions of the eastside is slowly
moving east. Today the best chance for showers and isolated
storms will be along and east of the cascades. There is no concern
for showers and thunderstorms west of the cascades because the
atmosphere is more stable and drier. Also steering winds are
expected to be from the north to northwest, so any storms that
develop over the higher terrain will move southeast.

Tomorrow will be dry and warmer. As mentioned in the previous
discussion below, our next area of concern will be Wednesday
afternoon and evening for showers and thunderstorms, some of which
have the potential to be strong. Please see the earlier discussion
below for details on this. -petrucelli

Marine Updated 745 am pdt Monday 18 june 2018... Long period west
swells are now the dominant swell and seas have become less steep.

As a result the small craft advisory for hazardous seas was
cancelled. Seas diminish tonight, and relatively light winds and
seas are expected through Thursday. A thermal trough redevelops
Friday and continues through next weekend, and as a result, north
gales and heavy seas will likely return. -fb

Prev discussion issued 445 am pdt Mon jun 18 2018
aviation... For 18 12z tafs...VFR conditions are expected over all
inland terminals through the TAF period. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop east of the cascades this afternoon and may
affect klmt. These storms will bring gusty outflow winds and
lightning. At the coast, stratus has moved in this morning with
ifr ceilings and areas of MVFR visibilities in fog. This stratus
will edge back to the coastline this afternoon then flood back
inland tonight. -wright
prev discussion... Issued 251 am pdt Mon jun 18 2018
discussion... 65 cloud to ground lightning strikes were observed
yesterday, and the majority of thunderstorms were observed in the
differential heating area, west of the cascades where clear skies
were adjacent to the cloud shield that existed along and east of
the cascades.

There are a few differences with today's pattern compared to
yesterday's that justify a decreased chance of thunderstorms.

First, the triggers shortwave activity are less substantial
than yesterday. Second, the atmosphere is more stable everywhere.

There will still be showers, focused over the cascades and east
side. A tenth to quarter inch of rain is possible in areas that see
the most showers. If past is prologue, thunderstorms will likely be
focused again in the area of differential heating adjacent to the
thick cloud shield. Today, that will be primarily klamath and modoc
counties. Confidence is not high in this aspect of the forecast, and
since thunderstorm indices are not as favorable today, we've
generalized a slight chance of thunderstorms for most areas
along and east of the cascades.

Tuesday will be a dry day across the forecast area due to lack of
significant trigger, stable conditions, and relatively dry westerly
flow aloft. Afternoon temperatures will jump Tuesday to 10 to 15
degrees above normal fro the cascades westward as the influence of
the cool upper low leaves and ridging builds overhead. Temperatures
will remain closer to normal east of the cascades, closer to the
departing low.

Wednesday will likely be the most interesting weather day of the
week. Models are increasingly suggesting that ingredients for
significant thunderstorms will come together, at least for the
siskiyous, cascades and cascade foothills and potentially west side
valleys. Moisture, trigger, and instability will be in abundance,
according to the latest gfs20, with precipitable water values of 1
inch+, a distinct shortwave moving in from the SW (gfs20, sref, and
ec agree on this), and 850mb LI values of -4. Additionally, a
significant southerly wind field yields 0-6km bulk shear of 40kt,
and upper level deformation is high. If all this comes to pass,
severe thunderstorms are possible with the primary threat being
damaging winds. There's still some uncertainty with this forecast,
so we'll see if models become more steady with the expected
thunderstorm parameters and placement timing of the shortwave. At
this point, it does seem like the best chance for significant
thunderstorms is in the evening when the best dynamics arrive.

Instability decreases on Thursday as westerly flow aloft dries out
the atmosphere, and any thunderstorms should be confined to lake
county. This shift to deep westerly winds will bring cooler
conditions to the area, lowering temperatures by about 5 degrees
compared to Wednesday. Friday should see further cooling, with no
thunderstorms expected.

Another warming trend is expected Saturday, and continued stable
conditions should prevent any thunderstorms from forming.

Fire weather... A general trend of lower humidity is expected
today across the forecast area. Thunderstorms will be focused
along and east of the cascades this afternoon, likely forming
along the clear area just to the west of the cloud shield that's
currently over lake county. The drying and warming trend will
continue on Tuesday, and any thunderstorms should be confined to
northern lake county. Favorable ingredients for thunderstorms may come
together on Wednesday, and there is enhanced potential for a
significant amount of lightning and even severe thunderstorms for
the cascades and siskiyous... And maybe for west side valleys too.

Sk

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lake County Airport, OR3 mi72 minSE 810.00 miLight Rain49°F48°F97%966.3 hPa

Wind History from LKV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN11N10--NE3CalmNE4E5CalmE8W3CalmCalmSE5SE5SE4SE3CalmS6SE8SE6S6SE7SE8SE9
1 day agoN14N11
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2 days ago64NW6E5NW10NW6N9N11N7N8N7N9N10NW9N9N7N12N13N14N13N12N86N13

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.