Sunrise 6:01 AM   Sunset 7:42 PM Moonrise 4:37 PM   Moonset 4:48 AM

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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 537 Am Edt Sat Apr 20 2024
Today - SW winds around 5 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft this afternoon. Showers likely early, then chance of showers early this afternoon. Tonight - NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Sun - W winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Sun night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Mon - NW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Mon night - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.Tue - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Tue night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Showers likely. Wed night - NW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.

ANZ300 537 Am Edt Sat Apr 20 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A cold front will move across the region late this afternoon into the evening. High pressure then builds in through early next week, then gives way to a frontal system on Wednesday. High pressure then builds in again for the end of the week.

FXUS61 KALY 201035 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 635 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
Behind a departing cold front, clouds will break for some sun today, with a breezy afternoon and a few lingering showers or sprinkles. Cooler and drier weather will return for Sunday and Monday, with a good deal of sun each day and breezy conditions.
Milder temperatures will briefly return for Tuesday before another front returns chilly weather to the region for the rest of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 635 AM EDT...Surface cold front continues to slowly push across the area from west to east. The boundary is now draped across western parts of the area over the Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley. It will continue to push eastward across our area for the morning hours.

IR satellite imagery continues to show widespread clouds over the area and upstream imagery suggests these clouds will continue to remain over the area into much of the morning hours, as the surface boundary is only slowly pushing eastward.
It may take until the mid to late morning hours for the lower clouds to have fully pushed east of the area into New England.

Radar imagery shows mainly just some spotty light showers. The bulk of the steadier precip ahead of the front has now pushed eastward into central New England, although some showers are still lingering across NW CT, but will be done there over the next hour or so. Some spotty light showers and sprinkles may still be ongoing across other parts of the area, but this is very light and probably not producing measurable precip. Any of this activity should be ending soon as the front continues to drift eastward.

Some clearing will be occurring for late this morning and partial sunshine is expected for this afternoon. With the upper level trough still overhead, some clouds are still expected thanks to the cyclonic flow in place and a few spotty light showers or sprinkles are expected to develop this afternoon as well. This mainly looks to impact northern and high terrain areas, but any shower will be very brief and fairly light.

Winds will be southerly ahead of the front, with some gusty conditions for north-south valleys (such as the Hudson Valley and Capital Region). Winds will become westerly behind the front. There may be a lull in the winds for the late morning or early afternoon, but they will probably pick up again for the mid to late afternoon hours within the better mixing behind the departing front. Some westerly gusts up to 25 mph are possible for late today, especially in the Mohawk Valley and Capital Region. After early morning temps in the mid 40s to low 50s, they should rise behind the front into the 50s to low 60s across most of the area. The mildest temps will be in the mid Hudson Valley.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Mainly dry and quiet weather is expected through the short term period. The upper level flow will be flat for tonight behind the departing shortwave, although another disturbance will be passing north of the area for Sunday into Monday. While this will keep a broad trough over the area with lower heights and cooler temps aloft, the main upper forcing will be well north of the area and moisture is lacking for Sunday into Monday.
Because of this, no precip is expected across the area for Sunday into Monday. While there will be some clouds around on Sunday, skies look fairly sunny for Monday.

After temps tonight in the 30s, highs on Sunday look below normal with afternoon temps in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Another chilly night in expected on Sunday night with 20s and 30s as well. Daytime temps will once again only be in the 40s and 50s on Monday, despite a good deal of sunshine. Lows will be continued chilly on Monday night in the mid 20s to low 30s with widespread frost.

As is typical for this time of year (pre-greenup), deep daytime mixing and a lack of leaves on the trees will allow for dry afternoons with low RH and breezy conditions. See the Fire Weather section below for more details, but dry and breezy conditions are anticipated for both Sunday and Monday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Surface high pressure will push off to the east on Tuesday as southerly return flow advects milder air into the region. Highs on Tuesday will rebound into the 50s and 60s, closer to normal values.
Clouds will increase and thicken later in the day as an upper-level trough and low pressure system approach from the west. There remains some timing and track differences with this system and also with how much cold air dives down from Canada in its wake. Regardless, shower chances will increase spanning Tuesday night and Wednesday. If the cold front crosses during the time of peak heating on Wednesday, a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out. The clouds and showers will hold temperatures down into the 40s and 50s on Wednesday.
Enough cold air may advance behind the cold front that some snowflakes could mix in across higher elevations before precipitation begins tapering off Wednesday night. Lows Wednesday night could fall to or below freezing in many areas, including the valleys. While a few isolated rain/snow showers remain possible on Thursday, building upper-level ridging and surface high pressure should bring a drying trend to end the week with continued below normal temperatures.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Through 12z/Sun...A pair of cold fronts will cross the TAF sites through the upcoming TAF period. The first front is currently crossing the TAF sites with rain showers/sprinkles ending. Cigs have lifted back to the VFR range at KALB/KGFL and will do so shortly at KPOU/KPSF.

The second cold front will push through this afternoon. VFR cigs will occur through the afternoon with developing stratocu around 5-7 kft. Some isolated to scattered showers are possible along and just behind the front (between 18z/Sat and 00z/Sun) and maintained VCSH in the TAFs until confidence in timing and location of showers becomes more clear. Showers will end and clouds will quickly dissipate giving way to clear/mostly clear conditions after 00z/Sun.

South to southwesterly wind at 5-10 kt this morning will gradually shift to the west by this afternoon and become gusty with sustained winds 10-20 kt with a few gusts approaching 30 kt (especially KALB/KPSF). Wind will gradually subside overnight.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

FIRE WEATHER
Dry and breezy weather will be in place across the region for Sunday through Tuesday. While temperatures will be on the cool side for Sunday and Monday, valley areas should be back into the 60s by Tuesday. There will be some cloud cover for Sunday, although Monday looks fairly sunny. After a sunny morning on Tuesday, some clouds will increase by later in the day. RH values may be as low as 30 percent during the afternoon hours, although there should be a recovery during the overnight hours.

Winds will be westerly on Sunday and Monday with some gusts up to 25 mph in the afternoon hours. Southerly winds on Tuesday could gust as high as 30 mph late in the day.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

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Hudson
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Sat -- 04:50 AM EDT     Moonset
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Sat -- 07:56 AM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:56 PM EDT     3.88 feet High Tide
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Coxsackie
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Sat -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:14 AM EDT     0.94 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:37 PM EDT     4.49 feet High Tide
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