Monday, May21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ashland, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:41AMSunset 8:33PM Monday May 21, 2018 8:12 AM PDT (15:12 UTC) Moonrise 11:16AMMoonset 12:44AM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 207 Am Pdt Mon May 21 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..High end small craft winds will peak this afternoon and evening, leading to steep wind driven seas. The strongest winds are expected south of port orford and the steepest seas will be south of gold beach. Winds ease Tuesday afternoon and seas gradually subside by mid-week, transitioning from steep wind driven seas to northwest swell. Afterwards, conditions are expected to remain below small craft into the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashland, OR
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location: 42.2, -122.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 211024
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
324 am pdt Mon may 21 2018

Short term
No major changes to the forecast for this morning update. The low
that was in northern california Sunday afternoon is digging into
southern california at the moment as can be seen from the latest
infrared satellite data. With this low departing the region,
precipitation will be on a downturn today with just a slight
chance for storms around the warner mountains and in southern
siskiyou county.

The low will move up north into nevada Tuesday and destabilize
the atmosphere over oregon. We have a chance for thunderstorms to
form yet again. The best place will probably be over the eastside,
which is closest to the low center. Some storms may slip over to
the westside, but it's unlikely for Tuesday.

Tuesday will also be the warmest day this week with medford
approaching the upper 80's for highs. Guidance doesn't think
medford will hit 90 and the ECMWF ensemble members are staying
away from 90 as well. Still, this is the warmest day of the week
and is roughly 10-15 degrees above average for this time of year.

The picture for Wednesday is still the most interesting for our
region. We'll see a low from the pacific approach our area and
increase the southwest flow. The low to the east will still be
hovering around in nevada, so we can see broad upper level
destabilization. Models are still hinting at potential instability
around 1500-2000 j kg during Wednesday evening. 0-6 km shear is
showing 15 - 20 knots, so storms are not expected to be severe.

Even with the lack of shear, we could still see some stronger
ones that put down a decent amount of lightning over the mountain
ranges. With this southerly 0-6 km shear, we should see some
activity around the rogue valley Wednesday afternoon and evening.

As for Thursday, the low over nevada will depart the region
resulting in a ridge building over the area Thursday morning.

The low over the pacific will dig and amplify with this ridge
slowly breaking down Thursday evening. The models again want to
break out convection under this ridge, but we are a little
skeptical given how far south the closed low is. So limited storm
chances to slight chance during Thursday evening. As the low in
the pacific lifts into northern california, storm chances should
increase significantly Friday. We also want to mention that the
gfs is probably too bullish on the convection outbreak Friday
morning.

-smith

Extended term Friday through Sunday...

on Friday, the ec GOES with an east side convective scenario. The
gfs lifted indices go a bit bananas this day and looks anomalous
with very high lis over the west side. On Saturday, both models
shows broader coverage over the east side and siskiyou county with
some intrusion into the west side.

Sunday looks to be the transition day, as the low is forecast to
lift back into the westerlies at that time, weakening and moving
through the medford CWA as it does so. The air mass stabilizes
once the low moves through. This is a pretty dicey forecast this
far out and forecast confidence is low.

If this forecast pans out, it's going to be pretty busy around
here for the second half of the week.

As for temperatures, model output now suggests Thursday will be
the hottest day in the extended period with inland highs 5-10
degrees above normal. Temperatures will then cool to around 5
degrees above normal Friday, though the east side will be slower
to cool. After that, inland temperatures will generally range from
normal to around 5 degrees above normal. Coastal temperatures
will not stray far from normal.

-stockton

Aviation 21 06z TAF cycle... Along the coast, MVFR from lower
clouds will continue overnight down port orford. Offshore flow south
of port orford will maintainVFR through crescent city ca. Satellite
imagery shows most of the coastal waters under ifr tonight.

Inland, stratus should return to douglas county with MVFR at rbg,
then spreads farther south into the rogue valley with MVFR at mfr
around sunrise.

-bunnag

Marine Updated 130 am pdt Monday 21 may 2018... High end small
craft winds will peak this afternoon and evening, leading to steep
wind driven seas. The strongest winds are expected south of port
orford and the steepest seas will be south of gold beach. Winds will
ease Tuesday afternoon as the thermal trough weakens and shifts
inland. Seas will gradually subside by mid-week to around 7 feet and
transition from steep wind driven seas to a northwest swell with a
period of around 12 seconds. Afterwards, conditions are expected to
remain below small craft into the weekend.

-firmin

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 5 am pdt Wednesday for pzz356-376.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 5 am pdt Wednesday
for pzz350-356-370-376.

Smith firmin bunnag


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 84 mi48 min NNE 4.1 G 5.1 50°F 49°F1015 hPa
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 92 mi82 min ENE 1.9 G 1.9 50°F 50°F6 ft1014.8 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rogue Valley International Airport, OR15 mi19 minN 410.00 miMostly Cloudy51°F46°F83%1016.1 hPa

Wind History from MFR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8W9W9NW5W4SE3NW7W4W12W10
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N11N8NW6CalmS3CalmSW4CalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalmN4
1 day agoCalmCalmN5N6CalmNW4N6N9
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N12N12N14NW8NW8NW3NW6NW5N4W4W3W4W6NW9NW8W5
2 days agoCalmN4NW4NE3W3NW5NW9NW8
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NW9N7N10N9NE10N8N6CalmW3CalmE3CalmNW3CalmN3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:50 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:31 AM PDT     6.16 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:50 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:38 AM PDT     -0.68 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:23 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:33 PM PDT     5.83 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:37 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:50 PM PDT     First Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
33.74.75.56.16.15.54.431.50.2-0.5-0.6-01.12.645.15.75.85.34.53.62.9

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:49 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:30 AM PDT     6.16 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:51 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:34 AM PDT     -0.68 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:23 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:32 PM PDT     5.83 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:35 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:50 PM PDT     First Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.13.84.75.66.16.15.54.42.91.40.2-0.6-0.601.22.645.15.75.85.34.53.62.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.