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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013.thunderstorms over the waters - . Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible - .keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat - .lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414

PZZ300 826 Pm Pdt Tue Apr 23 2024
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters - Winds and seas will continue to improve tonight into Wednesday. Thursday, a front will move across the area and bring gusty southerly winds. Then westerly seas will build on Friday. Additional fronts will move across the area Saturday into early next week.

FXUS66 KMFR 240349 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 849 PM PDT Tue Apr 23 2024

DISCUSSION
Thunderstorm activity is a few hours behind us now and conditions will remain relatively calm overnight. Zonal large scale flow will allow a weak boundary to drift in off the pacific tomorrow. This will initiate another round of pop-up style thunderstorms across NorCal and east of the Cascades. Storms are not expected to be any stronger than today, though; with winds generally being 40 mph or less and hail around pea size as a result of these storms.

For areas that don't receive thunderstorm activity, skies are expected to still be partly cloudy as some higher level clouds move through the area as we swap a warm airmass for a cool-ish one. Temperatures may not even get into the 70s for most areas, with the Lower Klamath river valley being the exception.

The pattern is expected to remain active into the weekend with rain and snow becoming more widespread in the forecast.

AVIATION
24/00Z TAFs...VFR ceilings and visibilities are most likely across the forecast area outside of lower stratus near North Bend. Thunderstorms have been building over northern California with ceilings around 6000 to 8000 feet above ground level. The storms will impact smaller airports in northern California and will be in the vicinity of Klamath Falls. The lower LIFR and IFR ceilings will push back into the coast later tonight. -Smith/Hermansen

MARINE
Updated 800 PM Tuesday, April 23, 2024...Winds and seas will continue to lower tonight into Wednesday. Then a front will arrive on Thursday followed by additional fronts Saturday into early next week. Westerly fresh swell and gusty southerly winds could rebuild steep seas by late Thursday or early Friday, especially in outer waters. However, current guidance suggests that waves only have a 10-20% of exceeding 9 feet through the weekend. So while steep seas and gusty winds up to small craft advisory level are possible, more hazardous conditions are not expected.

-Hermansen/CC

PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 252 PM PDT Tue Apr 23 2024/

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night.

It will be at least a couple of weeks before it is quite as warm again inland as it is today. This shift back to cool, frequently wet, more typically spring-like weather will be more readily apparent beginning on Thursday. But, the cooling trend will begin Wednesday, with highs around 5 to 10 degrees lower than today.

The most notable aspects of the short term are areas of coastal low clouds, and a chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms for northern California, northward into the Siskiyou Mountains of far southern Jackson County, and northeastward into south central Oregon..Klamath and Lake counties. This includes Fort Jones, Yreka, Weed, Mt. Shasta, Tennant, Lava Beds, Alturas, and Lakeview.

Our area of activity will be a bit larger today with an area of deformation and instability between areas of low pressure offshore from Canada and California. The pattern will shift very slightly southeastward for Wednesday with a late day slight chance to chance of thunderstorms again for southern, central, and eastern Siskiyou County eastward and northeastward across Modoc and southern portions of Klamath and Lake counties. This includes Tennant, Alturas, and Lakeview.

By the end of Wednesday night, a wet cold front is expected to be just west of the coastal waters, with rain developing at the coast Thursday morning.

-DW

LONG TERM...Thursday morning through Tuesday night.

The warm and dry weather comes to an end on Thursday as the next wave and frontal system hits the region. We're expecting rain along the coast and west of the Cascades. The NBM is predicting a 100% chance of precipitation late Thursday morning through late Thursday evening with chances of precipitation lowering to around 60% east of the Cascades. Snow levels will be around 5000 to 7000 feet depending where one is located with the higher snow levels east of the Cascades. Like always, snow over the higher Cascades is expected and Crater Lake will see accumulating snow fall Thursday into Friday morning.

The forecast for Crater Lake is showing between 4 and 8 inches of snow accumulating and perhaps 1 inch over Mt. Ashland. 1 to 3 inches are also anticipated in the Warners through Friday morning. Overall, impacts here are pretty minimal, although one traveling to Crater Lake on Friday morning could be caught off guard with snow accumulation in late April.

The atmosphere shows some instability by later Friday, so thunderstorms were inserted into the forecast around that time. The probability of thunder is around 15% and covers large swaths of the forecast area. Given that an upper level wave is starting to depart the region, thunderstorms that do form will likely be weak and a few cloud to ground flashes seems the most likely scenario.

Another shortwave and warm front will push into the forecast area around Saturday. The chance of precipitation is only about 50% west of the Cascades as the ensembles might have some issues with timing or perhaps moisture content. Those probabilities drop off in northern California and east of the Cascades down to 20 percent. So some of the forecast area as a modest chance of rain, other areas will likely stay dry.

Finally, the ECMWF and GFS are both showing a stronger low in the Gulf of the Alaska, although the ensemble anomalies are not as excited about how unusual it is for this time of year. In general, it looks like zonal flow is setting up under a strong west to east mid level jet, which will likely keep Spring like temperatures in check with a cooler moist flow for the weekend into next week. There is a small set of ensemble members(15%), which show a stronger ridge building in southern Oregon between Sunday evening and Monday evening, which would lead to warmer temperatures and drier weather than what is currently in the forecast.

-Smith

AVIATION
23/18Z TAFs
VFR ceilings and visibilities are most likely across the forecast area this afternoon and evening as lower stratus has burnt off along the coast. Thunderstorms will build over northern California this afternoon with ceilings around 6000 to 8000 feet above ground level. It also appears the storms will stay far enough away from all our TAF locations, although the storms will impact smaller airports in northern California. The lower LIFR and IFR ceilings will push back into the coast later tonight.

-Smith

MARINE
Updated 115 PM Tuesday, April 23, 2024
The strongest winds remain south of Cape Blanco but will be easing through this afternoon. The thermal trough will weaken through the day, but a Small Craft Advisory will be in place for all waters through 5 PM today, then will continue for waters south of Cape Blanco until 8 PM.

Seas will remain calm through Wednesday and into Thursday morning before active weather returns to the area. Westerly fresh swell and gusty southerly winds could rebuild steep seas by late Thursday or early Friday, especially in outer waters. However, current guidance suggests that waves only have a 10-20% of exceeding 9 feet through the weekend. So while steep seas are possible, more hazardous conditions are not expected. -TAD/Hermansen

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.

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Brookings
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Tue -- 06:09 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:23 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:24 AM PDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:40 PM PDT     5.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:51 PM PDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 06:10 PM PDT     1.90 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:08 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:16 PM PDT     Moonrise
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Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon, Tide feet

Crescent City
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Tue -- 06:09 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:20 AM PDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:23 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:39 PM PDT     5.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:51 PM PDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 06:06 PM PDT     1.90 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:07 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:15 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Crescent City, California, Tide feet

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