Friday, July28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ashland, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 8:34PM Friday July 28, 2017 10:00 AM PDT (17:00 UTC) Moonrise 10:52AMMoonset 10:51PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 843 Am Pdt Fri Jul 28 2017
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..A thermal trough in northern california will remain in place into next week with north winds and steep to very steep seas. Small craft advisory conditions will persist south of cape blanco this morning, then expand north from about bandon south this afternoon into Sunday evening. The thermal trough will strengthen this afternoon into Sunday evening with gales developing beyond about 5 nm from shore and south of gold beach. Gales will expand north mainly south of port orford Sunday night through Monday evening and small craft will also expand north mainly south of coos bay.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashland, OR
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location: 42.2, -122.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 281612 cca
afdmfr
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service medford or
912 am pdt Fri jul 28 2017

Update No major updates were necessary this morning, other than
to adjust cloud cover along the coast and to add some smoke to the
area surrounding our ongoing wildfires. Have also opted to place
an area of slight chance of isolated thunderstorms in northern
lake and klamath counties. Confidence is not high, but some model
guidance suggests that a cell may develop out of the afternoon
cumulus field, much like yesterday.

Main forecast efforts today will be focused on heat, primarily
during the Monday to Thursday time period next week. Model
guidance and local rules of thumb suggest temperatures will easily
make it into daily record territory, and several locations could
surpass 110. There is also a chance that some locations may
approach all-time record values. Expect to have some form of heat
headline out by day's end.

For more information on this and the rest of the forecast, see
the previous discussion below. -bpn

Aviation 28 12z TAF cycle... At the coast and just offshore... .

The latest fog image shows marine stratus along the coast and inland
into the coquille basin just north of CAPE blanco to just north of
reedsport. The stratus is just offshore, but not by much. Meanwhile
marine stratus is further offshore (between 5-10 nm) near pistol
river and also inland into some of the lower river valleys. Ifr and
local lifr CIGS will persist in these areas for most of the morning.

The marine stratus should burn off during the morning with some
improvement possible this afternoon as the marine stratus peels back
just off the coast withVFR cigs, but confidence on the timing is
low to medium. Guidance has been consistent showing improving
conditions at north bend at 19z, so we'll keepVFR in the the TAF at
that time. Marine stratus will likely return to the coast this
evening with ifr and local lifr cigs.

Inland... The latest fog image shows marine stratus in the coquille
basin and river valleys in curry county. This should burn off by
late this morning with clear skies for the afternoon. The marine
stratus is starting to develop just south of roseburg and could
bring scattered clouds just outside of the 5 mile radius, but
roseburg should remainVFR. Elsewhere... VFR will continue for the
next 24 hours, with the exception of in the vicinity of wildfires,
where smoke may occasionally restrict visibility to less than a mile
at times. -petrucelli

Marine Updated 230 am pdt Friday 28 july 2017... A thermal
trough in northern california will remain in place into next week
with north winds and steep to very steep seas. Small craft advisory
conditions will persist south of CAPE blanco this morning. The
thermal trough will strengthen this afternoon through early next
week with gales beyond about 5 nm from shore and south of gold
beach. Meanwhile small craft conditions will affect areas from
bandon south through Sunday evening. The models suggest gales and
small craft conditions could expand in coverage Sunday night through
Monday evening and decided to expand the coverage of gales and small
craft conditions. Please see mwwmfr for more details. -petrucelli

Fire weather Updated 300 am Friday 28 july, 2017... Dry and hot
weather away from the immediate coast will prevail through most of
next week. A weak upper trough will approach the area from the
southwest this afternoon. Models show south winds near 700mb
increasing between 15-20 kts and is likely to mix down near the
surface. Relative humidities will be low, but right now we don't
think winds will be strong enough to warrant red flag conditions for
fire zones 624, 625, 284 and 285, but this will need to be watched
carefully. Instability will be marginal at best this afternoon, but
mid level moisture is lacking, so were not expecting much more than
a few cumulus build ups along the cascades and east side this
afternoon and evening. Also the thermal trough will remain along the
coast resulting in breezy east to northeast winds near and at the
ridges in portions of fire zones 618, 619 and 280 tonight into
Saturday morning along with moderate recoveries. Latest data still
does not support conditions reaching critical criteria, so we'll
continue to headline in the fire weather forecast.

The overall pattern is not expected to change much for all of next
week. However the models differ with the position ofthe upper ridge.

For example the GFS has the ridge positioned over the four corners
and we'll be on the outer fringe of the ridge. Typically in this
type of situation we could be dealing with isolated thunderstorms.

Taking the GFS at face value would put southeastern lake at risk for
thunderstorms. Given the high fire danger in these areas, decided to
err on the side of caution and keep a slight chance of storms in
southeast fire zone 625 Saturday and Sunday afternoons.

In contrast, the ECMWF has the ridge positioned right over our area
which will keep thunderstorm chances pretty much next to zero with
even hotter temperatures.

Relative humidities will be low during the afternoons, but models
are not showing particularly strong winds near and at 700 and even
the 700-500 mb winds are not strong. Also the pressure gradients are
not strong, therefore surface winds will not be strong enough to
warrant red flag concerns. -petrucelli

Prev discussion issued 322 am pdt Fri jul 28 2017
short term... Very hot conditions will develop across inland
areas late this weekend into early next week. Today, a weak
shortwave will lift northeast and the upper level ridge will
strengthen over the western u.S tonight into early next week. High
temperatures are expected to reach 100 for some western valleys
on Sunday then increase further early next week with very hot
temperatures developing. Models also continue to show very weak
impulses moving into the area, which combined with some mid level
moisture and instability may bring a slight risk for thunderstorms
to eastern modoc and southeast lake counties Saturday and Sunday.

Overall, this risk is only slight due to limited moisture and
forcing.

The building ridge will bring a warmer airmass and hot
temperatures to inland valleys this weekend. Highs are expected to
warm into the 90s to near 100 for many western valleys by Sunday
with highs in the lower to mid 90s across eastern valleys.

Meanwhile along the coast, a surface thermal trough will
strengthen and result in stronger east to northeast winds. This
will bring warming conditions to the coast, especially in the
brookings area where a moderate chetco effect is expected.

Looking into early next week, the main concern is with the
potential for excessive heat across several inland valleys,
including the rogue, illinois and applegate valleys and the
shasta, scott and klamath river valleys in northern california.

Models currently support afternoon temperatures rising into the
lower to mid 100s across these western valleys. Additionally,
overnight low temperatures are expected to be warmer than normal
with lows near 70 Monday night and Tuesday night. This will result
in only a brief period of relatively cooler temperatures in the
overnight hours. High temperatures east of the cascades will also
rise early next week, reaching the upper 90s by Tuesday. Very hot
temperatures are expected to continue into Wednesday, then
conditions will gradually become less hot late next week as an
upper trough approaches the pacific northwest coast.

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 11 pm pdt Monday for pzz356-376.

Gale warning until 11 pm pdt Monday for pzz356-376.

Small craft advisory until 11 pm pdt Monday for pzz350-370.

Bpn btl cc map


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 84 mi43 min SW 4.1 G 6 54°F 61°F1017.3 hPa
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 92 mi71 min NNE 3.9 G 5.8 54°F 55°F6 ft1016.9 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rogue Valley International Airport, OR15 mi68 minN 010.00 miFair72°F55°F57%1015.7 hPa

Wind History from MFR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3344CalmNW9W9NW10NW10N12N11N6N5N4N5CalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmW3NW4Calm
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2 days agoW3CalmCalmW6W3W6CalmW7NW9N10NW9N5N6E3W5CalmW3W4S5SW3NE3CalmW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
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Fri -- 03:38 AM PDT     6.02 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:06 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:03 AM PDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:59 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:37 PM PDT     6.53 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:39 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:54 PM PDT     1.76 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:57 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
34.25.25.965.44.43.11.80.80.50.81.734.55.76.46.5653.82.721.8

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:37 AM PDT     6.02 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:07 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:59 AM PDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:58 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:36 PM PDT     6.53 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:38 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:50 PM PDT     1.76 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:57 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
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3.14.25.25.965.44.331.70.80.50.81.73.14.55.76.46.55.94.93.72.721.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.