Thursday, January24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Catskill, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 5:01PM Thursday January 24, 2019 2:00 AM EST (07:00 UTC) Moonrise 10:26PMMoonset 10:43AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 949 Pm Est Wed Jan 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am est Thursday...
.gale warning in effect from 6 am est Thursday through Thursday afternoon...
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Slight chance of rain early this evening, then chance of rain late this evening and early morning. Rain late with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..S winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain in the morning, then showers in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas subsiding to 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then to 1 ft or less after midnight.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of snow showers after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of snow after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
ANZ300 949 Pm Est Wed Jan 23 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front approaches from the west tonight, with a wave of low pressure riding along it. The front and low cross the area on Thursday, followed by high pressure building in from Thursday night. Into Saturday. A cold front will then approach from the great lakes on Sunday, and pass through Sunday night. Low pressure moving out of the plains states on Monday will approach Monday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Catskill, NY
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location: 42.22, -73.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 240614
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
114 am est Thu jan 24 2019

Synopsis
A storm system approaching from the west will bring milder
weather to the area with periods of rain. Some of the rain will
freeze late this afternoon into this evening, especially north
of albany. The rain could be heavy at times especially Thursday
morning. The combination of heavy rain, warmer temperatures and
melting snow could cause some flooding south and east of albany
Thursday morning. The rain could end as some snow Thursday
afternoon, especially west of the hudson valley. Colder weather
will return for Friday into the weekend, with some lake effect
snow showers possible.

Near term through today
As of 100 am, steady rainfall continues over southwest flow
upslope-favored locations such as the southern adirondacks,
southern greens, and northern berkshires, as well as the lake
george saratoga region. Mesonet obs show that anywhere from 0.50
to 1.25 inches of rainfall has occurred in these areas already.

The winter weather advisory was allowed to expire as
temperatures have risen above freezing and will continue to stay
steady or climb somewhat for the rest of the night. Elsewhere,
rainfall is spottier, but will fill in from west to east late
tonight toward daybreak as an elongated area of strong 850 to
700 mb frontogenesis spreads into the region, along with an
increasingly favorably positioned right entrance region of a
strong upper level jet.

Prev disc... Temperatures continue to rise slowly
as slightly heavier and more widespread precipitation is
overspreading the area from the west. Temperatures are near to
just above freezing in most areas from albany southward,
although with dew points mainly in the 20s some wet bulb cooling
could still result in some spotty icing in those areas. Some of
the warmest temperatures can be found on the west slopes of the
berkshires, taconics and green mountains with locations as far
north as bennington vt up into the mid 30s. North and northwest
of albany, the cold air is holding on more persistently with mid
20s to lower 30s in the mohawk valley, southern adirondacks,
upper hudson valley. Many places within this area will see
another tenth or two tenths of an inch of ice into this evening.

Overnight temperatures will continue to rise slowly with just
about all locations above freezing by midnight. Increasing
southerly winds will become very strong above the boundary layer
with speeds as high as 80-100 kts from 925 to 850 mb. These
winds will remain above the boundary layer but gusts up to 30 to
40 mph can still be expected over higher terrain in the
catskills and berkshires. Downsloping south-southeast winds will
lift temperatures well into the 40s along the west slopes of
the berkshires and taconics as far north as bennington vermont
overnight. Meanwhile, temperatures will hold on the cold side
west of the hudson valley and north of albany with 30s from
saratoga county northward. Rainfall will be maximized over the
slopes of the southern adirondacks where some 1 to 2 inch
amounts. Showers elsewhere will result in precipitation amounts
ranging from 0.25 to 0.75 inches.

Short term tonight through Friday night
An elongated area of low-level low pressure and frontogenesis
will translate slowly from west to east across our area on
Thursday. A dominant wave of surface low pressure will organize
near new jersey and track northeast to western new england
Thursday morning and afternoon. Moderate to heavy rain will fall
along and just east of the track of this wave, with the cams
all indicating a narrow cold frontal rain band developing near
the hudson valley around or just after 12z, then progressing
east across massachusetts and connecticut during the late
morning through early afternoon. Temperatures will be highly
variable during this period with readings reaching the 50s in
connecticut and the lower-to-mid hudson valley, with mid 30s to
lower 40s north of albany where the cold air will never get
completely scoured out. Areas south and east of albany that will
be relatively warm with gusty winds and snow melt could see
flooding as detailed in the hydrology section.

Rain will change to a period of light snow on the western edge
of the precipitation west of the hudson valley Thursday
afternoon with up to a couple of inches of accumulation. A brief
period of snow could reach the hudson valley by late afternoon
with very minor accumulations, then the snow could enhance a
bit as it GOES into vermont and massachusetts with an inch or so
possible. Colder weather will overspread the entire area
Thursday night with some flurries re-developing west of the
hudson valley overnight.

Friday will be colder with scattered snow showers west of the
hudson valley during the morning. A re-enforcing shot of colder
air will approach from the west Friday afternoon possibly
associated with some snow showers that could reach the hudson
valley east to the greens and berkshires later in the day. Some
lake effect snow could develop Friday night east of lake
ontario extending toward the western adirondacks. Saturday will
be cold with mainly dry weather for most of our area, except for
possibly some lingering snow showers east of lake ontario.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
Broad upper troughing will be in place throughout the extended
period as an anomalous strong 500mb trough over the great lakes
region brings chances for snow and below normal temperatures.

To start, an upper impulse will round the base of the trough and
lift northeastward across our area Sunday into Monday. Ahead of this
impulse, a cold front will pass through the region Sunday night,
resulting in snow showers and potentially snow squalls. Temperatures
on Sunday are expected to warm into the mid 20s to mid 30s before
sharply dropping off behind the front, with overnight lows near zero
in the dacks to the mid and upper teens elsewhere.

High pressure briefly builds into the region for the day Monday
before a strong upper impulse digs into the trough and helps deepen
the larger scale trough. There is still uncertainty in model
guidance but it looks like this system will bring snow chances to
the region Monday night through Wednesday. Temperatures on Tuesday
will be near normal before gradually cooling down through the end of
the work week as the broad trough moves overhead.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
Approaching storm system will continue to bring periods of rain
through the remainder of the overnight hours. Although flying
conditions have generally beenVFR high end MVFR, they will become
solidly MVFR and eventually ifr for all sites by daybreak for both
visibility and ceilings. Surface winds will be variable, with light
or calm conditions at kgfl kpou kpsf, while kalb will see southerly
winds around 10-15 kts. At 2 kft, southerly winds will be 40-45
kts, so will include llws for all sites.

A period of moderate to heavy rainfall is expected for Thursday
morning for all sites. The lowest visibility is expected to be at
kpsf kpou, although all sites look ifr through the morning hours.

Surface winds will generally be around 10 kts, although some higher
winds are possible at kalb, with llws continuing in place.

The heaviest rain will start to taper off after midday, but light
rain will continue into the afternoon with MVFR conditions. As temps
fall, precip could even changeover to snow at kpsf, although it
appears that temps won't cool down fast enough for this to occur at
the valley sites. Winds will switch to the west for the afternoon
and be around 10-15 kts with some higher gusts.

Once precip tapers off by late afternoon or early evening, flying
conditions should return back toVFR for all sites. Skies will
start to clear out for Thursday night and westerly winds will
continue to be gusty for all sites.

Outlook...

Friday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shsn.

Friday night through Saturday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn.

Sunday through Sunday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of
shsn.

Monday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn.

Monday night through Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of
shsn.

Hydrology
Flash flood watch has been expanded to include berkshire,
columbia, dutchess and eastern ulster counties, as well as
remaining in effect for litchfield county Thursday.

A storm system will bring rain and freezing rain changing to
all rain across the area tonight and continuing into Thursday.

About one to two inches of liquid equivalent is expected with
heaviest amounts over the southern adirondacks tonight and over
western massachusetts and connecticut Thursday. This rainfall,
along with the melting snow, will allow for some rises on rivers
and streams. Across the northern half of the area temperatures
will only rise to about 40 degrees and the rainfall will mostly be
absorbed by the snowpack. However, south and east of albany
(where snow pack is more limited) more of the precipitation will
be converted to runoff. With a frozen ground in place, some
minor flooding is possible, including along the housatonic and
hoosic rivers.

With river rises and ice movement on some rivers, ice jams can
not be ruled out. However the limited amounts of total runoff
should prevent this from being a major concern and this will be
more of an isolated issue.

Behind this storm system, colder weather will return to the
region for Thursday night into the weekend. Any additional
precip will be in the form of snow and fairly light.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs on our
website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... Flash flood watch from 6 am est this morning through this
afternoon for ctz001-013.

Ny... Flash flood watch from 6 am est this morning through this
afternoon for nyz060-061-064>066.

Ma... Flash flood watch from 6 am est this morning through this
afternoon for maz001-025.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Snd frugis
near term... Snd frugis thompson
short term... Mse frugis
long term... Jlv
aviation... Frugis
hydrology... Snd mse frugis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 15 mi30 min Calm 33°F 1011 hPa32°F
TKPN6 15 mi30 min S 4.1 G 5.1 33°F 1011.3 hPa33°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 80 mi36 min SSW 8.9 G 12 46°F 36°F1012.3 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 81 mi30 min S 6 G 7 42°F 35°F1013.1 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pittsfield Municipal Airport, MA32 mi66 minN 32.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist37°F34°F89%1010.8 hPa

Wind History from PSF (wind in knots)
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1 day ago555Calm3SW5W11W10W10W7SW7W12W8W8W4SW3SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
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Tide / Current Tables for Catskill, Hudson River, New York
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Catskill
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Thu -- 05:06 AM EST     4.15 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:43 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:28 AM EST     -0.83 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:59 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:20 PM EST     4.50 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:26 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.90.31.833.84.13.93.120.8-0.2-0.7-0.70.31.83.24.14.54.43.82.71.40.3-0.6

Tide / Current Tables for Coxsackie, Hudson River, New York
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Coxsackie
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:00 AM EST     -0.52 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:19 AM EST     4.35 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:43 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 12:14 PM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:58 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:32 PM EST     4.99 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:26 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.5-0.112.33.33.94.34.23.22.11.30.5-0.10.11.12.53.74.54.94.94.12.81.70.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.