Sunrise 6:43 AM   Sunset 8:18 PM Moonrise 2:14 PM   Moonset 3:48 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

LCZ422 /o.exp.kdtx.ma.w.0003.000000t0000z-240417t2115z/ 505 Pm Edt Wed Apr 17 2024
.the special marine warning will expire at 515 pm edt - .
the affected areas were - . Lake st. Clair open lake (u.s. Portion) - . St. Clair river - .
the Thunderstorms have moved out of the area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
a severe Thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 700 pm edt for southeastern michigan - .the adjacent waters of lake huron - .and the adjacent waters of lake st. Clair.
&&
lat - .lon 4289 8247 4280 8248 4276 8247 4261 8252 4255 8259 4256 8264 4246 8274 4259 8285 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8261 4265 8259 4264 8256 4276 8251 4289 8252 4301 8247 4302 8243 4298 8241 time - .mot - .loc 2105z 242deg 52kt 4323 8228 4292 8200 4269 8178

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 190001 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 801 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain tonight as a cold front tracks through the region. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out.

- Showers exit Friday morning with drier and cooler weather heading into the weekend.

AVIATION

Increasing high clouds downstream of an inbound cold front precede the arrival of MVFR CIGS and light rain showers between 04Z-06Z. A period of heavier showers move in around 07Z and last for a 2-3 hour period. During this time, scattered IFR ceilings will be possible, especially from KPTK and north. There also remains a low probability for thunderstorms across the southern terminals, but the isolated nature and low confidence precludes mention at this time. Winds generally out of the east-southeast this evening will turn northwest late tonight and then out of the W by around 12Z tomorrow morning in the wake of the front. VFR conditions will follow the frontal passage as the westerly winds usher in drier air.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling aob 5000 ft after 04z-06z tonight.

* Low for thunderstorms tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 356 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

DISCUSSION...

Low and mid level ridging entrenched locally late this afternoon, immediately downstream of a broadening corridor of height falls emanating off a closed mid level circulation pivoting into western Ontario. Active southern stream pv and upper jet energy undercutting this height fall gradient will prompt a respectable low and mid level response offering an axis of meaningful northward moisture transport within the background ongoing warm air advection. This process occurs as the associated surface reflection and attendant frontal boundary migrate across lower Michigan tonight. Ongoing higher based isentropic ascent currently offering some thicker cirrus with a representative signal of virga/sprinkles across the Saginaw valley, but limited moisture quality or supportive ascent lends to otherwise dry conditions holding this evening. Peak in both upward vertical motion and theta-e quality occurs over roughly a 6 hour window from 04z to 10z as fgen strengthens along the northwest flank of the passing surface low. This will support a high coverage of rain within this window, with some elevated thunder potential given the magnitude of theta-e advection. Rainfall totals from one quarter to one half inch remain on track.

Aforementioned closed low remains a fixture Friday and Saturday as it slowly migrates across central Ontario. Modest height falls within the post-frontal environment nets an associated cooling trend this period. Weak advective process initially leaves highs solidly in the 50s Friday. A secondary frontal passage Friday night offers a reinforcing shot of colder air with a more noteworthy downward adjustment for Saturday with highs upper 40s/lower 50s. Firm pressure gradient with sufficient wind magnitude affords a standard increase in gustiness of west winds with daytime heating both days.
Dry conditions hold this period as moisture depth remains too limited to generate anything outside of a broader stratocu field within weakly cyclonic mid level flow. Dry and seasonable conditions remain through the end of the weekend. Brief recovery of mid level heights then brings a modest warming trend heading into early next week.

MARINE...

A cold front sags south through the central Great Lakes tonight into Friday morning bringing widespread showers as well as a slight chance for a couple nonsevere thunderstorms over the southern lakes.
Upper level troughing expands over the Great Lakes following the frontal passage allowing a cooler airmass to settle over the region through this weekend. A destabilizing overlake thermal profile supports moderate west to northwest flow for this timeframe as peak gusts over northern Lake Huron top out in the 25-30kt range, with 20- 25kts generally favored over the remainder of the area.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Detroit, MI,