Saturday, November18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
River Rouge, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 5:08PM Saturday November 18, 2017 3:31 AM EST (08:31 UTC) Moonrise 7:19AMMoonset 5:43PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ422 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0056.000000t0000z-171015t1730z/ 111 Pm Edt Sun Oct 15 2017
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Lake st. Clair open lake (u.s. Portion)... St. Clair river... The Thunderstorms have moved out of the area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4260 8254 4255 8259 4256 8264 4238 8282 4235 8293 4237 8300 4239 8295 4244 8291 4254 8291 4259 8285 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8261 4265 8259 4264 8256 4276 8251 4283 8251 4283 8247 4276 8247 time...mot...loc 1709z 271deg 36kt 4276 8242 4240 8263
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ422 Expires:201710151721;;908498 FZUS73 KDTX 151711 MWSDTX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 111 PM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017 LCZ422-460-151721-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near River Rouge city, MI
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location: 42.25, -83.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 180810
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
310 am est Sat nov 18 2017

Discussion
Lead shortwave and associated rainfall was pushing east of the
forecast area early this morning. Attention now turns to the main
wave over the high plains of co ks nb as it moves into the lakes
region by this evening. Associated with this wave is the deepening
surface low. Models are still struggling with the location, the
strengthening and the timing of this surface low. Models continue
to be slower with the timing of the deepening of this feature with
the slightly flatter nature of the upper wave. This keeps the surface
low south of the state and moves it from northern in to central lake
erie this afternoon and evening while deepening it into the mid
980s mbs.

The bulk of the forcing with the lead wave has pushed east of the
forecast area. However a ribbon of 700-500 mb fgen across far
southern lower mi with modest isentropic lift moisture advection
will keep numerous showers in the forecast for the areas south of m
59 during the morning. Just a chance of showers north of that
during the morning hours. Between 15z and 18z, very good mid level
fgen and deformation works back over lower mi and continues through
00z. Also associated with that will be a little couple jet dynamic
from the right entrance region of the jet across the northern lakes
and the left front exit region of the 140kt jet cutting into the
ohio valley. Precipitable water will be just under an inch for this
event while mid level lapse rates may be just steep enough with the
dynamics to have a rumble of thunder for far southeast lower mi.

Without a doubt, the best instability and moisture will lie across
northern in and northern oh near the warm front, but think there
will be enough moisture and forcing between 700 and 300 mbs to bring
widespread half inch rainfall from 18z to 00z for southeast lower
mi. Will lean toward the cooler end of guidance temps with the
surface low staying south of the state with all the clouds and rain.

Nam is aggressive with the column cooling for the tri cities and fnt
areas from 22z to 00z early this evening. Local ensemble output
suggest a non-zero chance of accumulating snow, but more like 20 to
30 percent chance. Will certainly have snow mixing with the rain as
it ends during the evening across much of the forecast area, but
will hold off on any minor accumulations because of how quickly the
forcing pulls out of the region.

As the low deepens winds will increase this evening. Ensemble output
is suggestive of 35 to 40 mph peak wind gusts. This looks good given
not much more than 40 kts in the low level mixed layer.

Expect Sunday to be cloudy with plenty of flurries or even full
fledged snow showers through early afternoon. A good secondary
shortwave passes through over the forecast area and model soundings
indicate good shallow instability up to 8 to 10k feet. That should
be plenty good for scattered snow showers. Will lean toward a
cooler forecast highs mostly in the mid 30s on Sunday rather than
around 40 degrees of guidance. Hourly model guidance suggest that it
will be a struggle to get up into the mid 30s let alone 40.

After this weekend, weather will be a little quieter as far as
precipitation. Warmer, but seasonable conditions expected on Monday
and Tuesday. A cold front passing through the state on Tuesday will
be accompanied with wind both ahead and behind it. Temperatures will
again fall back to seasonably cool conditions for Wednesday and
thanksgiving.

Marine
Rapidly strengthening low pressure will lift from central indiana
across lake erie this afternoon. As it does so, nnw wind will
strengthen bringing widespread gales to the waters. Portions of the
southern lake huron basin may see periods of sustained gales
overnight. Significant wave heights of 12 feet or more will be
common with maximum wave heights potentially eclipsing 20 feet in
the open waters. Gale warnings remain in effect for all marine
zones. After a period of moderate to fresh westerlies Sunday night
through Monday night... Potential for SW gales develops early Tuesday
as low pressure tracks across northern ontario.

Hydrology
Light rain will remain mainly focused south of the m59 corridor for
the next several hours. Rain coverage to the west will fill in
throughout the morning as it tracks closer to the area. By this
afternoon, all of SE michigan will see moderate rain. Additional
rainfall totals will range from around 0.5" in the saginaw valley
area to an inch near the ohio border. The heaviest rain will be
focused in the 1pm to 7pm time frame. Minor urban flooding remains a
possibility.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1149 pm est Fri nov 17 2017
aviation...

the heavier rain showers will diminish within the first couple hours
after TAF issuance. This lead edge of showers is occurring within
strong low level moisture transport. Although the heavier showers
will end, light rain drizzle will persist through daybreak under
steady low level moisture advection. Upstream observations support
ceilings dropping to ifr by daybreak under this moisture advection.

Deepening low pressure will track across NW ohio early sat
afternoon, then into southern ontario by evening. This low will
bring another round of heavier rain showers, especially sat
afternoon. Additional moisture lifting north of the associated sfc
warm front will sustain ifr lifr CIGS and vsby into the afternoon.

As the low continues to deepen as it exits east Sat afternoon, north-
northwest winds on the back side of this system will strengthen. A
deepening mixed layer as a result of cold air advection will lead to
increasing winds, with gusts likely topping 30 knots Sat evening.

For dtw... The risk of early morning thunderstorms looks to be
decreasing. The better instability Sat afternoon is expected to
remain south of the mi oh border given the forecast track of the sfc
low. The influx of low level moisture ahead of the sfc low may
however support periods of fog into the early afternoon. A wind
shift to the northwest is expected between 22 and 00z Sat evening.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less overnight through Saturday
night.

* low in ceilings and or visibilities below 200 ft and or 1 2 miles
Saturday morning.

* moderate in crosswind thresholds being exceeded Saturday evening.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Gale warning from 3 pm this afternoon to 7 pm est Sunday for
lhz361>363-462>464.

Gale warning from 7 pm this evening to 10 am est Sunday for lhz421-
441>443.

Small craft advisory until 4 am est early this morning for
lhz441>443.

Gale warning from 7 pm this evening to 7 am est Sunday for lhz422.

Lake st clair... Gale warning from 7 pm this evening to 10 am est Sunday for lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Gale warning from 7 pm this evening to 10 am est Sunday for lez444.

Discussion... Rbp
marine... ... .Jvc
hydrology... .Jvc
aviation... ..Sc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 18 mi31 min SSW 8 G 12 41°F 1004.1 hPa (-2.7)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 30 mi41 min S 20 G 22 42°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 44 mi31 min S 22 G 25 44°F 1002.9 hPa (-3.5)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI12 mi39 minSSW 114.00 miLight Snow42°F41°F95%1003 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI13 mi38 minSSW 64.00 miLight Rain55°F41°F59%1004.1 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI14 mi38 minS 42.50 miRain Fog/Mist42°F41°F96%1004.1 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI21 mi37 minS 77.00 miLight Drizzle43°F40°F91%1003.7 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE5E4NE5E4E6SE7S6S8S12S15
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1 day agoW12
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NW11NW85NW8N9N7N7N6NE4CalmNE5
2 days agoS10S10S10S8S8S11S12
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SW11SW12SW13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.