Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Quincy, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 4:40PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 8:29 PM EST (01:29 UTC) Moonrise 7:42AMMoonset 5:28PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ230 Boston Harbor- 716 Pm Est Tue Jan 16 2018
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less, except 2 to 4 ft at the outer harbor entrance. Snow after midnight.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Rain and snow. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft, except 3 to 5 ft at the outer harbor entrance. A chance of snow.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sun night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Pm Est Tue Jan 16 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Low pres will develop off the mid atlc coast late today, then will push across the waters tonight and Wed. Another high will build S of the waters Thu through Sat. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Quincy, MA
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location: 42.27, -70.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 170013
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
713 pm est Tue jan 16 2018

Synopsis
A developing coastal low pressure will emerge off the delmarva
tonight and track northeast to near CAPE cod Wednesday morning.

This system is expected to bring a moderate to heavy snowfall to
western and central ma and northern ct late tonight into Wednesday.

Snow, with a likely transition to rain for the bos-pvd corridor
by the mid-morning. However, impacts to the morning commute are
likely. Mainly dry weather likely Wednesday night into Sunday,
with a warming trend during this weekend. Another low pressure
should affect our region early next week with mostly rain.

Near term through Wednesday
* potent winter storm expected late tonight into Wednesday
* hazardous morning commute expected
713 pm update...

overall trend in the forecast remains on track this evening.

Some light snow ahead of the main low pressure already moved
into portions of north central and western ma. Visibility was
down as low as 1 mile, so expecting this snow will be
accumulating at least a little.

Mainly tweaks to the forecast this evening to reflect observed
trends. Expecting precipitation to not overspread the rest of
southern new england until after midnight. Last few runs of the
hrrr seem to have a decent handle on timing, so used it as a
basis for this update.

Tonight into Wednesday...

overview...

more substantial snowfall is expected starting this evening into
tonight, as a coastal low pressure system is forecast to emerge
off the DELMARVA and track northeast along a baroclinic zone
close to the nj long island coast. At the same time, the
positive tilt mid upper level trough will migrate eastward.

Appears that a transfer of energy as coastal low jet structure
begins to take hold early tomorrow morning will help phase the
clipper system. This coastal low track has been key for this
forecast as it is projected to track across the CAPE and up
towards the maritimes. At the same time, open wave at 700 mb and
surface high situated over the maritimes will help allow the
warm air to push into southern new england. The lack of
blocking, also allows for this system to be quite progressive.

So with the progressive nature, closer surface low track and
warm air mixing into the i-95 corridor went ahead and adjusted
snowfall amounts and sped the system up.

P-type...

ongoing snowfall this evening will overspread across the region
as cold front from the west approaches. Coastal low will move
up the coast by the morning hours resulting a perhaps a good
thump of snow right around the morning commute. Trended the
onset of the snowfall with wet-bulbing to help indicate some
moderate lift in the snow growth region. However, decent warm
air at 925mb and at 950mb pushes into the i-95 corridor right
after the rush which will transition any snow into rain. This
will help undercut snowfall totals.

Several model p-type algorithms also keeps the precip more as
snow. However, that does not agree with current synoptics and
climatology, especially with a low tracking over the cape. The
other thing we noticed is hi-res guidance including the hrrr and
rap show a snow hole moving across ri and southeast ma towards
the morning commute. This minimum in the guidance is a suggested
in jet energy transfer towards the coastal low. Snow will
eventually fill into that region, but there could be some lower
amounts between 06-12z.

Mixing could reach as far as windham county and up into coastal
essex which is in agreement with ec, GFS and nam. As the storm
moves up towards the maritimes later in the day, it does
strengthen, allowing for any rain to transition back to snow
by the late afternoon hours. This is all depending on where
precip will be ongoing, with our highest confidence right now
for NE ma.

Snow amounts hazards...

higher snow amounts remain across western ma for this evening
which is climatology supported. Appears to be a good swath of
over 0.5 inches across hartford county and up into northern
middlesex county. Thereafter QPF amounts will be lower towards
the canal, with a secondary MAX across the CAPE and islands.

With higher snowfall ratios, expect about 5-8 inches of snowfall
within the current warning, with isolated higher amounts near 9
or 10 inches as you get closer to the berkshires. This area
appears to have good forcing within the snow growth region also
some banding near the berks down into hartford county as shown
by packed thermals in the mid-levels. Thus could see some higher
amounts. Thus will keep the current winter storm warning for
western and central ma as well as hartford and tolland ct.

As you get closer to the i-95 corridor expect around 2-5 as this
region has a better shot of mixing during the mid-morning hours.

This as well as the snow hole will keep amounts lower and thus
have downgraded the i-95 corridor to an advisory. Did not have
the confidence to keep the warning up, especially with the
warmer trends in all of the models. Closer to the south coast
and near the canal, amounts will be less than 2 inches. Most of
the snow will fall tonight into the early morning hours, but
will quickly transition to rain by the morning. Thus went ahead
an dropped the advisory.

Even though amounts and hazards have been lowered, the timing of
this system is not ideal as it brings accumulating snow during
the morning commute. Motorists should use caution and take their
time if heading out in the morning.

Short term Wednesday night
Coastal low will continue to move towards the maritimes
Wednesday night. This will pull all the moisture with is so
any lingering snow showers will come to an end. Thus will not
expect much in the way of issues with the evening commute.

Cloud cover will improve by the later half of the night, and if
we decouple then temps will bottom out during the overnight
hours. Low temps will range from 20s across the CAPE and islands
to single digits across western ma where fresh snow pack
resides.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
Highlights...

* cold and dry Thursday
* continued dry with a warming trend through this weekend
* another storm may bring mostly rain Monday into Monday night
16 12z guidance is in reasonable agreement moving a deeper mid
level trough offshore Thursday, with the mid level flow becoming
more zonal across the eastern usa by Saturday. Still expecting a
modest mid level ridge to build over the eastern seaboard this
weekend. This should set the stage for a modest mid level trough
to pass through early next week.

Overall, this is looking like a rather quiet period of the
forecast. Dry weather should prevail Thursday into Sunday, with
a gradual warming trend and above normal temperatures.

A low pressure is expected to move through the great lakes
sometime early next week, and swing a cold front across our
region. The timing is still uncertain, since it is still 6-7
days away. It does appear the most likely precipitation type
will be rain. However, some light snow, or even freezing rain,
will be possible if precipitation were to have a longer duration
at night. It will likely be several more days to work out these
sorts of details. The most likely period for precipitation
would be from Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning.

Aviation 00z Wednesday through Sunday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday night ...

tonight and Wednesday... High confidence in trends. Moderate
confidence in timing. Mainly ifr-lifr CIGS vsbys in snow, with
areas of heavy snow north of a kbos-khfd line. Snow may mix
with or change to rain south of a kghg-kpvd-kwst line during
Wednesday. Conditions improve toVFR across ct and western ma
Wednesday afternoon, and across ri and eastern central ma
Wednesday night. Wind gusts 20-25 knots around nantucket and
parts of CAPE cod.

Wednesday night... High confidence. Any lingering ifr lifr will
improve toVFR from west to east during the overnight.

Kbos terminal... Moderate to high confidence in taf. Morning push
will be impacted.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf. Morning push will be
impacted.

Outlook Thursday through Sunday ...

Thursday through Friday night:VFR. Breezy.

Saturday:VFR. Windy with local gusts to 30 kt.

Saturday night:VFR. Breezy.

Sunday:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday night ... High confidence.

Easterly swell will continue to keep seas up tonight across the
eastern waters. However seas will slowly relax late tonight.

Approaching coastal low tomorrow will build seas and winds for
all of the waters. Low pressure system will track over CAPE and
head towards the gulf of maine. Could see some gusts near 20-25
kts but seas will build near 5-8 feet. Thus have extended sca
for outer waters into Wednesday night.

Outlook Thursday through Sunday ...

Thursday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of freezing spray.

Thursday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Friday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Friday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Saturday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Hydrology
Minor flooding continues along the taunton river, where a flood
warning remains in effect. A flood warning is also in effect
for the connecticut river at middle haddam, where ice is causing
some river fluctuations.

Colder weather will persist through midweek which will limit
additional runoff. Continued ice jams expected on some of the
rivers. There will be an increase of snow pack for a portion of
southern new england through Wednesday as several inches of
snow will fall.

For details on specific area rivers, including observed and
forecast river stages, please visit the advanced hydrologic
prediction service (ahps) graphs on our website.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... Winter weather advisory from 1 am to 6 pm est Wednesday for
ctz004.

Winter storm warning until 3 pm est Wednesday for ctz002-003.

Ma... Winter weather advisory from 1 am to 1 pm est Wednesday for
maz017>019.

Winter weather advisory from 1 am to 6 pm est Wednesday for
maz007-013>016.

Winter storm warning until 3 pm est Wednesday for maz002-003-
008>011.

Winter storm warning from 1 am to 6 pm est Wednesday for
maz004>006-012-026.

Ri... Winter weather advisory from 1 am to 1 pm est Wednesday for
riz002>004.

Winter weather advisory from 1 am to 6 pm est Wednesday for
riz001.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 7 am to 7 pm est Wednesday for
anz235-237.

Small craft advisory until 8 am est Thursday for anz250-
254>256.

Small craft advisory until 1 am est Wednesday for anz251.

Synopsis... Belk dunten
near term... Belk dunten
short term... Dunten
long term... Belk
aviation... Belk dunten
marine... Belk dunten
hydrology...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 8 mi42 min 34°F 1030.5 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 17 mi100 min S 9.7 G 12 36°F 42°F6 ft1031.3 hPa (+0.0)
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 27 mi86 min 9.7 G 12 35°F 40°F7 ft1030.8 hPa
PVDR1 40 mi42 min SSE 6 G 8 34°F 1031.6 hPa33°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 40 mi42 min S 8 G 8.9 33°F 33°F1031.1 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 41 mi42 min 34°F 34°F1032 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 41 mi42 min SSE 8 G 9.9 35°F 1030.9 hPa
FRXM3 41 mi42 min 34°F 29°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 43 mi42 min SE 8.9 G 11 33°F 33°F1031.4 hPa
44090 45 mi60 min 36°F1 ft
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 48 mi42 min SE 2.9 G 7 34°F 1031.4 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 48 mi105 min S 4.1 34°F 1008 hPa30°F

Wind History for Providence, RI
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NE8
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NE10
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA8 mi36 minSSE 510.00 miOvercast32°F26°F79%1031.4 hPa
East Milton, MA9 mi34 minS 8 mi30°F26°F85%1031.9 hPa
Norwood, Norwood Memorial Airport, MA12 mi37 minS 310.00 miOvercast34°F28°F79%1031.4 hPa
Marshfield Airport, MA19 mi55 minSSW 410.00 mi32°F28°F87%1031.8 hPa
Bedford, Hanscom Field, MA22 mi94 minN 010.00 miOvercast32°F21°F64%1032.4 hPa
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA22 mi37 minS 310.00 miOvercast33°F25°F72%1030.8 hPa

Wind History from BOS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9N7NW10NW10NW9N7NW5NW6N5N3NE4NE5CalmCalmSE4S3SE4SE4SE4SE3SE4SE6SE4SE5
1 day agoNW8N10N11N11N12N13N14N17N14
G22
N14N12N12
G19
N15N16N14NW10N12NW11NW10N10N11N12N10NW10
2 days agoNW17NW12NW17NW16
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NW14NW14NW13NW13NW11NW11NW9NW6N7N6N7N6NW6N7N10N10

Tide / Current Tables for Nut Island, Massachusetts
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Nut Island
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Tue -- 04:32 AM EST     0.98 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:40 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:52 AM EST     9.73 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:27 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:37 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:09 PM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tue -- 11:27 PM EST     8.61 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.86.54.62.61.21.12.13.75.77.89.39.79.17.65.53.110.10.41.63.45.57.58.5

Tide / Current Tables for Boston Harbor, Massachusetts Current
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Boston Harbor
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:30 AM EST     -1.21 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:31 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:41 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:54 AM EST     1.13 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 10:28 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:50 PM EST     -1.33 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:27 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:37 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 04:58 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:19 PM EST     1.14 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tue -- 10:57 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.6-0.9-1.2-1.1-0.50.40.811.10.80.3-0.2-0.7-1-1.2-1.3-0.900.711.110.5-0

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.