Friday, December15, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Spencer, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 4:35PM Friday December 15, 2017 10:16 PM EST (03:16 UTC) Moonrise 4:45AMMoonset 3:17PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 615 Pm Est Fri Dec 15 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday evening...
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west to 30 knots. A chance of lake effect snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 6 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Saturday..West winds to 30 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 7 to 10 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north less than 10 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Sunday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. Partly Sunny in the morning, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of snow showers in the evening, then a chance of snow and rain showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Monday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers during the day, then a chance of rain showers Monday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. A chance of rain showers during the day, then snow and rain showers likely Tuesday night. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Snow showers likely. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 41 degrees.
LOZ044 Expires:201712160415;;950799 FZUS51 KBUF 152315 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 615 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-160415-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Spencer, NY
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location: 42.29, -76.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 160133
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
833 pm est Fri dec 15 2017

Synopsis
Tonight will be uneventful, with just a few flurries. Early
Saturday, a band of lake effect snow, will drop into northern
oneida county, and bring a period of accumulating snowfall. The
lake snow band should weaken by midday, with just scattered snow
showers and flurries, at worst, for the rest of the weekend.

Near term through Saturday
830 pm update... Lake effect snow bands off erie and ontario are
behaving themselves and staying north and west of the forecast
area, so really just a few flurries over the area. Meanwhile, in
nepa, light snow associated with the weak coastal storm has
moved out, other than a few flurries. Just some minor
adjustments to the grids at this time.

145 pm update... Light snow is starting to reach the ground this
afternoon across nepa and southern sullivan county, ny, as
expected. The northern western fringes of the snow shield will
translate across our far southeastern zones through about 6 pm
or so, then begin to slide quickly eastward, as a kicker short-
wave in the northern stream approaches. We're still anticipating
a coating to an inch with this system in our forecast area.

Once the above mentioned snow moves out early this evening, a
good part of the night should be quiet, as light snow
showers flurries tied to an approaching clipper only gradually
approach from the west, and lake snow bands initially stay well
north and west of our forecast area.

Later tonight early Saturday, as the low-level flow starts to
veer from sw-w, the lake ontario band should begin to drop
southward, and is expected to encroach on northern oneida county
roughly in the 3-5 am time frame. Although there are some
questionable elements with this event for our area (lift not
well collocated with the dgz, the shifting nature of the band
itself, and a bit of directional shear), we think it will have
enough of a fetch across the long axis of lake ontario, along
with some dynamic support from an approaching trough cold front,
to produce advisory criteria accumulations (3-6"). Most of the
higher totals should occur up near the oswego and lewis county
lines.

As for the lake erie band, a piece of it could break off and
move into our ny central southern tier zones later tonight.

However, even if this happens, we think accumulations will be
light and short-lived (generally an inch or less over western
steuben and yates counties).

Saturday, the lake ontario band should continue pushing
southward across cny and weaken fairly quickly with southward
extent. Thus, outside of the southern tug hill region in the
morning, any accumulations look pretty light (again, mostly an
inch or less). By later in the afternoon, only a few light snow
showers and flurries should be left.

Saturday night looks mostly dry, with ridging building in from
the north and west. There will be a brief influx of colder air
again, behind the above mentioned surface front trough. This
will help lows drop into the single digits and teens by daybreak
Sunday.

Short term Saturday night through Monday
Main concerns in the short term are focused on the next chance of
light snow Sunday night, with a mix or change to rain during the day
Monday.

High pressure will be in place most of the day Sunday across ny and
pa, but with the ridge shifting to the east later in the day and a
weak return southerly flow developing out ahead of the next incoming
short wave expected to slide through Sunday night and Monday.

A warm front extending eastward from the low will lift to the north
and usher in a warmer air mass beginning Sunday night. Although
temperatures will be warmer... It should still be cold enough for
snow Sunday night, with 850mb temps around -2 to -4 deg c. Available
moisture will be limited with this system... So snow amounts should
be capped at an inch or less.

During the day Monday, temperatures aloft will increase a few more
degrees to around +1 c across NE pa, and around -1 c in ny. With
these warmer temps, combined with surface temperatures from the mid
to upper 30s... Most of the snow should at least mix with rain, and
potentially change to all rain, especially in the valley locations.

Liquid precipitation amounts should be limited to a tenth of an inch
or less.

Long term Monday night through Friday
The bubble of warmer air will continue to work its way through the
region Monday night and Tuesday with a change back to mostly snow
Monday night, and a shift to mostly rain on Tuesday morning.

Precipitation should remain mostly rain Tuesday afternoon, and then
as temperatures take a noticeable turn colder in the late afternoon
and evening, the rain should change quickly to snow. Winds will
shift to the NW as well, and increase to around 25 to 35 mph.

The focus will then shift to areas SE of lake ontario where a period
of accumulating... Possibly significant... Lake effect snow is
expected. Favorable NW trajectories off the lake, cold temperatures
aloft and a deep, well-mixed boundary layer should all contribute to
the potential for lake effect snow into central ny late Tuesday
night through Thursday morning. Will likely see light snow
showers flurries taper off rapidly Thursday morning, as most models
point to a bubble of warmer air moving in from the SW later in the
day Thursday and thur night.

Aviation 02z Saturday through Wednesday
GeneralVFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Lake
effect band off ontario may bring some brief snow showers to rme
and temporary lowered ceilings and visibility for the next few
hours. Otherwise, just some scatteredVFR snow showers expected
during Saturday with west winds around 10 mph.

Outlook...

Saturday night and Sunday...VFR.

Monday and Tuesday... Possible restrictions in rain or snow
showers.

Wednesday... Restrictions possible again in lake effect snow
showers.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... Winter weather advisory until 1 pm est Saturday for nyz009.

Synopsis... Dgm mlj
near term... Dgm mlj
short term... Bjt
long term... Bjt
aviation... Dgm mlj


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 81 mi47 min S 8 G 14 23°F 1008 hPa18°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 89 mi77 min SW 11 G 14 25°F 1009.1 hPa (-0.4)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 90 mi47 min 25°F 1008.4 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Last
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S11
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ithaca, Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport, NY13 mi21 minS 310.00 miMostly Cloudy20°F15°F81%1010.5 hPa
Elmira, Elmira / Corning Regional Airport, NY22 mi24 minWSW 310.00 miOvercast22°F15°F75%1010.9 hPa

Wind History from ITH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmSE4CalmSE3CalmE4E3SE5SE4S9S10S7S7S8S9SE8SE7S7S5S7S7S5S3
1 day agoS3E3E5NE4E4E4CalmCalmN6NW8NW11NW10
G16
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NW7NW4CalmCalmS4S4S5
2 days agoW13
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NW9NW6NW4CalmCalmS4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.