Sunday, June24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Algonac, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:51AMSunset 9:11PM Sunday June 24, 2018 1:19 AM EDT (05:19 UTC) Moonrise 4:53PMMoonset 2:43AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ166 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on-the-lake Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 944 Pm Edt Sat Jun 23 2018
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Scattered showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers in the morning. A chance of showers late. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..North winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely Tuesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Wednesday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ166 Expires:201806240815;;012796 FZUS61 KCLE 240144 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 944 PM EDT Sat Jun 23 2018 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure of 29.70 inches over Lake Erie will drift east Sunday, pulling a trough across the lake late Sunday afternoon. High pressure of 30.30 inches from central Ontario will shift southeast across the eastern lakes for Monday and to the east coast by Tuesday. Low pressure 29.70 inches will track east across the central Great Lakes on Wednesday, taking a warm front across Lake Erie Tuesday night and a cold front across Wednesday. A ridge averaging 29.90 inches will extend to the lake from the Ohio Valley Thursday. LEZ061-165>169-240815-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Algonac, MI
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location: 42.29, -81.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 240133
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
933 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure over lake erie will track east of the area tonight. A
cold front will push south through area on Sunday. High pressure
will build southeast across the great lakes region Sunday night
through Tuesday. Low pressure will track through the central great
lakes on Wednesday, bringing a cold front east across the area
Wednesday night.

Near term through Sunday night
Scattered and isolated shower activity remains under the upper
level low pressure system but will continue to diminish from
west to east across the area overnight. Made some adjustments to
clouds. Otherwise, rest of the forecast looks reasonable.

Original discussion...

surface low pressure currently over lake erie will drift eastward
and fill through tonight. Surface trough rotating around the low is
working east out of the area this afternoon, with more widespread
showers and isolated thunderstorms across northwest pa exiting the
area by this evening. Additional scattered showers and a possible
thunderstorm will move east across the area through this evening,
especially focused along the i-90 corridor as a secondary surface
trough lingers near lake erie through the night. Instability is
fairly minimal already this afternoon and will continue to weaken
heading into this evening, so will continue an iso thunder mention
into the evening and keep thunder out of the forecast from mid
evening onward.

The aforementioned surface trough lingering near lake erie will drift
northward a bit overnight, and aside from some scattered shower
activity in the vicinity of this feature, mainly dry conditions are
expected for a good portion of the overnight across the area.

Attention turns to precip chances on Sunday as a cold front sinks
south into the area by the afternoon hours. Coverage is expected to
be similar to what we have out there today, mainly scattered hit or
miss convection. Some weak destabilization is anticipated during the
afternoon hours, especially across northwest and north central ohio,
with some better forcing across northeast ohio and northwest pa.

Have opted for slight chance thunder mention with mid range chance
pops peaking in the afternoon. Some likely pops are forecast for
northwest pa where hi-res signal has been more consistent with
development near the better forcing. Pops quickly diminish Sunday
evening with the passage of the front and loss of daytime heating,
with dry conditions expected overnight. No big changes to
temperatures tonight through Sunday night. Lows will be in the low to
mid 60s tonight, cooling to the upper 50s to low 60s behind the
front Sunday night. Highs Sunday will reach the mid 70s across
northeast ohio and northwest pa to the upper 70s low 80s
elsewhere.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night
After a summer weekend of on and off showers thunderstorms, the
responsible low trough will be well east of the area and high
pressure will be settling across the area, centered northeast of
the great lakes. This will provide for dry conditions, clearing
skies, and temperatures just shy of normal. On the backside of
the high warmer temperatures and higher humidity will return. We
will get into the upper 70s low 80s for Tuesday for Tuesday
night lows will be warm in the upper 60s. Shortwave energy
crossing the midwest and great lakes mid week will bring a warm
front to the area by Wednesday morning and a cold front across
on Wednesday. With more confidence from a smaller spread in
guidance, pass likely precip chances across the area between
late Tuesday night and Wednesday evening.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
Weak cold front bisecting the area on Wednesday evening will be east
of the area by Thursday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will
linger in the east Wednesday evening but will taper down to just a
low 20-30 pop in the east by Thursday morning with conditions drying
out and stabilizing by Thursday afternoon. Little change to the
temperature forecast on Thursday except to lower highs in pa by a
degree or two where flow may remain off the lake.

Warming trend develops to end the week as upper level ridge expands
into the great lakes region. The airmass warms Friday into Saturday
with temperatures near or exceeding the 90 degree mark both days.

Have kept most of the extended forecast dry for now with some
question between the models on the strength of the ridge. Some
moisture advection or showers spilling around the ridge on Thursday
night could be possible before the ridge strengthens but confidence
was not high enough to include in the forecast at this time. Will
also need to keep an eye on any isolated type thunderstorms that
could fire along lake breeze boundaries or other triggers late in
the period.

Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday
Diurnally driven showers continue to develop and move east
across the eastern half of the forecast area. The western half
has diminished as of now. Expecting current activity to diminish
with sunset tonight. There is a possibility that some activity
could develop at erie after 09z as the flow shifts back around
to the southwest and perhaps develop along the convergence zone
along the lakeshore. Will monitor this as the evening
progresses. Otherwise, low ceilings between 1500 feet and 2000
feet expected later tonight as low pressure north of the area
begins to pull out to the north. Winds will gradually shift
around to the northwest with time tomorrow but remain mostly
southwest through the night into tomorrow morning.

Outlook... Non-vfr conditions possible Tuesday night into
Wednesday night.

Marine
The surface low was near windsor ontario as of mid afternoon and is
expected to remain in then general vicinity of lower ontario through
the night. Light variable winds will take on more of a consistent
southwest direction through the course of the night. The low will
weaken and leave behind a trough to cross the lake on Sunday with an
abrupt wind shift to the north-northeast late in the afternoon. Wind
speeds will experience an uptick too, possibly enough to make for a
light chop Sunday night into Monday morning. High pressure just
northeast of the lakes Monday will shift to the east coast through
Tuesday with northeast flow on the lake veering to the southeast.

The next system to cross the region will move east across the
central lakes Wednesday and take the associated warm and cold fronts
across lake erie. A weak ridge moves in for Thursday.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Greenawalt
near term... Lombardy greenawalt
short term... Oudeman
long term... Kec
aviation... Lombardy
marine... Oudeman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45132 - Port Stanley 38 mi79 min SSE 3.9 G 3.9 67°F 65°F1007.3 hPa (+0.8)
AGCM4 40 mi49 min 65°F 1008.2 hPa
45147 - Lake St Clair 42 mi79 min NW 3.9 G 5.8 67°F 64°F1007.5 hPa (+1.4)
45169 47 mi29 min NW 1.9 G 3.9 68°F 67°F1 ft1008.5 hPa68°F
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 49 mi49 min WSW 12 G 12 69°F 1008.2 hPa66°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 53 mi79 min WNW 1.9 G 2.9 70°F 1008.8 hPa (+1.3)

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland, Burke Lakefront Airport, OH54 mi26 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy69°F64°F87%1008 hPa

Wind History from BKL (wind in knots)
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SE9S10S9S6W4SW10NW5NW3N4SW7W6W8W12SW13SW7SW7SW7W5Calm
1 day agoNE8NE7NE6NE7NE6E9E9E14
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4N5NE5N6N8NE12NE13NE17
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G25
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NE13NE12NE11NE8NE7NE6NE7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.