Sunrise 6:31 AM   Sunset 8:22 PM Moonrise 8:26 PM   Moonset 5:38 AM

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LEZ166 Expires:202404242015;;293113 Fzus61 Kcle 241309 Glfle
open lake forecast for lake erie national weather service cleveland oh 909 am edt Wed apr 24 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake erie
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
Synopsis - Northerly flow is expected today behind a departing cold front. High pressure 30.40 inches builds over the lake tonight before exiting to the east by Friday. A warm front lifts across lake erie Saturday morning as low pressure 25.50 inches tracks into the upper midwest and great lakes. The lake will remain between a series of low pressure systems tracking through the upper midwest and high pressure along the east coast through the weekend.
lez165>167-242015- vermilion to avon point oh beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- avon point to willowick oh beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border-willowick to geneva-on-the- lake oh beyond 5nm off shoreline to us-canadian border- 909 am edt Wed apr 24 2024
This afternoon - Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Tonight - North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming east 5 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Thursday - East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Thursday night - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Friday - East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Showers Friday night. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Saturday - South winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Sunday - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers during the day. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.

LEZ100
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FXUS61 KCLE 241748 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 148 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure over Ontario will build over the area by tonight and continue to influence the weather through Friday before drifting east off the New England coast. A warm front will lift across the local area Friday night into Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
1 PM Update...
Overall, not a ton of changes needed with this update. Any lingering light showers/sprinkles should taper off this afternoon and clouds will rapidly clear from north to south tonight as high pressure begins to nose south into the region.

Previous discussion...
The surface analysis early this morning shows the cold front is just approaching Lake Erie with an abrupt wind shift to the northwest behind it. The front will cross Lake Erie this morning but cold advection will continue to increase into this afternoon as temperatures at 925mb cool by 7-10C. Northerly winds will be breezy behind the cold front with winds gusting to around 20 mph at times.
High temperatures will occur this morning ahead of the front with temperatures settling into the low to mid 40s this afternoon under mostly cloudy skies. When you take the wind into effect, wind chills will be in the mid 30s from North Central Ohio into Northwest Pennsylvania making for a chilly late April day.

Showers continue to spread east across Lake Erie and eastern portions of the forecast area ahead of a shortwave and cold pool aloft. While the deeper moisture and better coverage of showers shifts east through 10 AM, scattered showers remain possible off eastern Lake Erie with lingering low level convergence before the ridge starts to build in this afternoon. Not quite cold enough for pure lake effect rain showers but some enhancement with scattered showers off the lake is expected. Moisture depth really decreases through the afternoon and expect the last of the light showers or sprinkles to be done by this evening. Have slowed down the clearing a little more with some breaks starting to develop downwind of the lake in NW Ohio by mid afternoon, then gradually scattering out through midnight as subsidence associated with the building high pressure wins out. With that said, some patches of cloud could remain tonight and complicate where Freeze Warnings/Frost Advisories may be needed. Decided to let the day shift monitor moisture and clearing trends and make the final call today. The forecast still supports a widespread freeze with much of the area dropping below 30 degrees and potentially a hard freeze with cooler spots into the mid to upper 20s. Winds will also be light which is conducive to widespread frost.

Thursday will be mostly sunny, although a shallow cu field may develop inland from Lake Erie. With a continued cool northeast flow off the lake, lakeshore areas will remain near 50 degrees while southern areas should warm into the mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
High pressure will be departing to the east Thursday night into Friday, though will still be close enough Thursday night to allow for one more mostly clear night with fairly light winds. There will be a bit more of a gradient than tonight and the airmass will be starting to warm a bit, so not expecting quite as much of a frost / freeze threat. However, with lows mainly ranging from the mid 30s to near 40 (locally near freezing from interior Northeast OH into interior Northwest PA) there should be some frost, though on a somewhat patchier basis than what's expected where skies clear tonight. Frost will favor locations away from the immediate lakeshore where winds are able to decouple. Much of Friday will be dry, though mid and high-level clouds will be on the increase with some potential for showers ahead of a warm front to approach I-75 by the early evening hours. Highs on Friday will respond nicely to the southeasterly flow and 850mb temperatures warming to 8-10C...most of the area should get into the low to mid 70s.

Low pressure will develop over the Plains Thursday night into Friday and lift through the upper Midwest and Great Lakes Friday night and Saturday. This low will lift a warm front across the area Friday night into Saturday morning. As mentioned above, modest shower chances may begin encroaching on I-75 before sunset Friday, though otherwise activity will hold off until Friday night into Saturday morning from west to east. This won't be a big rain maker and with very modest amounts of elevated instability, severe weather isn't a concern either. However, a combination of the lifting warm front, support from the right-entrance quadrant of an upper-level jet streak Friday night into early Saturday, a fairly strong and moist low-level jet ascending into the upper-level jet support, and a flat mid-level shortwave supports most of the area seeing at least some measurable rain Friday night into Saturday morning. Given models are generally consistent on timing, maintain a period of likely to categorical POPs (60-80%) for nearly all of forecast area Friday night or early Saturday, save for the Mount Vernon area where POPs decrease into the chance (~50%) range. Have a slight chance of thunder mentioned as that's generally a good practice with warm fronts in the spring, but the amount of instability to work with will be limited so it should be more "showers" than "thunderstorms".

Rain potential will diminish west of I-77 by early Saturday morning and will exit east of there by midday as the warm front and accompanying jet support continue lifting away from the area. This will leave a mainly dry Saturday behind the warm front, with just low chances for a stray shower or thunderstorm to pop up in the afternoon as weak instability tries developing. With some continued warm air/moisture advection continuing off and on through Saturday night keep some very low (20-30%) POPs in the forecast, especially over Northeast OH and Northwest PA...however, the forcing will be weak and instability limited, so still suspect that the general flavor for Saturday and Saturday night will be mainly dry once the warm front and associated showers are able to exit the area.

Lows Friday night will range significantly from the mid 40s east of Meadville to the upper 50s to near 60 west of I-77 in Ohio. Fairly deep mixing into strong deep-layer southwest flow, the strong late April sun, and 850mb temperatures climbing to 12-14C will support highs ranging from the mid 70s to near 80 Saturday...perhaps a bit cooler in Northwest PA if clouds/showers linger longer. Lows Saturday night will be very mild, ranging from the mid to upper 50s in PA to the low to mid 60s across much of Ohio. It will be breezy to windy on Saturday, especially from mid-morning through early afternoon as the combination of a weakening (but still 40-45 knot)
low-level jet and deepening mixing allows stronger gusts to mix down. Generally think much of the area will see 30-35 MPH gusts, though locations along the eastern lakeshore and generally northwest of I-71 may see a few hours of 40-45 MPH gusts. This is reflected by the NBM depicting modest probabilities (generally 20-40%) of gusts actually exceeding advisory-criteria (46 MPH) in a small chunk of Northwest and North Central OH. Ultimately do not think we'll need a headline anywhere but the wind will be noticeable on Saturday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A stout ridge will be in place over the eastern US Sunday and into Monday, with the ridge beginning to shift east and flatten later Monday into Monday night as a trough and associated cold front progress east out of the central US. Expect warm and mainly dry conditions (save for an isolated shower or storm) Sunday through a good portion of Monday. At some point late Monday or Monday night, expect greater rain chances to arrive along or just ahead of the advancing cold front. Models disagree somewhat on the frontal timing, with the GFS and Euro suggesting a passage Monday night into early Tuesday while the Canadian model is more solidly during the day Tuesday. If anything, timing has trended slightly slower in recent runs, which isn't unreasonable given the approaching trough will be flattening out as it approaches with a stout ridge only slowly giving way to the east ahead of the trough and cold front.
Regardless, all models have a sufficient combination of moisture, modest instability, and forcing with the cold front and upper-level diffluence ahead of the approaching trough to suggest that much of the area should get wet with the cold frontal passage. Felt model agreement on timing was enough to hit everyone with at least one period of likely (60%) POPs at some point between late Monday and early Tuesday. POPs diminish west to east into Tuesday as high pressure will build in behind the front, though given some disagreement on the front's timing do hold onto at least a bit of a rain mention Tuesday east of a Sandusky to Upper Sandusky line.

Temperatures will remain well above normal for Sunday and Monday, quite possibly approaching or reaching the low 80s across parts of the area, before cooling at least somewhat behind the front on Tuesday. Not looking at much of a severe weather or heavy rain threat with this front. Some models have a moderate amount of shear with enough instability late Monday into Monday evening that there could be a few stronger storms if frontal timing isn't too slow from the west, though overall am only seeing the ingredients in place for a rather low-end / run-of-the-mill severe threat, if even that.

AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/
MVFR/IFR will persist through this afternoon before high pressure begins to build south over the area. Expect rapid clearing from north to south this evening into tonight and ceilings should quickly improve to VFR. The high will settle over the region through the remainder of the TAF period, resulting in continued VFR through Thursday.

Outlook...Non-VFR may return in periodic showers and thunderstorms Friday evening through Monday.

MARINE
Another day, another Small Craft Advisory for most of the nearshore waters between the Islands and Conneaut, OH as north-northwest winds freshen to 15-25 knots behind a cold front this morning. This will build 3 to occasionally 6 foot waves between the Islands and Conneaut. Winds and waves will be a bit weaker and smaller farther west towards Toledo and east of Conneaut, so did not include nearshore waters off of Lucas County OH or Erie County PA in the advisory. The headline runs 8 AM to 8 PM today, with some potential to be canceled a couple hours early if winds and waves can come down quickly enough later this afternoon.

High pressure will move over the lake tonight before departing to the east/southeast Thursday into Friday. Tranquil marine conditions are expected tonight and Thursday morning. A period of 10-15 knot east-northeast winds may be just enough to build some chop between the Islands and Willowick, OH Thursday afternoon and evening.
Otherwise, winds will remain east-northeast through Friday afternoon before shifting more south-southeast Friday night and southwest Saturday through Monday. Speeds of around 15 knots will be common Friday into Friday evening, which will build waves across the western and central basins...though the current wind/wave forecast does remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria for that period. The strongest winds are expected late Friday night into Saturday, as winds turn south and southwest at 20 to 25 knots. This will build 4 to 7 footers in the open waters, especially across the central basin, and will likely necessitate a period of wind-driven Small Craft Advisories for most or all nearshore zones late Friday night through a good chunk of Saturday. Strong offshore flow and cold waters could catch inexperienced mariners in smaller craft off guard, so don't want to downplay the potential need for advisories even with a purely offshore wind. Winds diminish into a 15-20 knot range for Sunday and Monday, which is still somewhat brisk but will allow marine conditions to improve somewhat.

There is a low risk for isolated thunderstorms over the lake from Friday night through Monday afternoon. There is greater potential for thunderstorms over the lake Monday evening and night.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Freeze Watch from midnight EDT tonight through Thursday morning for OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047- 089.
PA...Freeze Watch from midnight EDT tonight through Thursday morning for PAZ001>003.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ143>148.

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