Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Algonac, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 8:25PM Friday August 18, 2017 12:27 PM EDT (16:27 UTC) Moonrise 2:04AMMoonset 5:07PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ166 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on-the-lake Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 919 Am Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
This afternoon..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Saturday..West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest and diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..South winds 10 knots or less. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day... Then showers and Thunderstorms likely Tuesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ166 Expires:201708182015;;571711 FZUS61 KCLE 181319 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 919 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A cold front over the lake will move off to the east this afternoon. High pressure 29.90 inches will build east across the Ohio Valley tonight. Low pressure 29.80 inches will cross Ohio Saturday. High pressure 30.10 inches will move across the lower lakes Sunday into Monday and off the east coast by Tuesday. The next cold front will move southeast over Lake Erie Tuesday evening. LEZ061-165>169-182015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Algonac, MI
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location: 42.29, -81.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 181539
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1139 am edt Fri aug 18 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will cross the area this morning. High pressure will
slide across the ohio valley this afternoon into tonight. Weak low
pressure associated with a strong short wave will drop across the
lower great lakes and ohio valley on Saturday. High pressure will
build across the great lakes Sunday, then move east of the area on
Monday.

Near term through Saturday
Update... Low level moisture continues to rotate ese out of mi
into nwrn ohio this afternoon. Low level CU also expanding ahead
of this with the late morning sunshine. Have increased clouds in
grids across northwest and north central ohio through the
afternoon. Still came out of "partly sunny" in text forecast but
there should be a few breaks ahead of some thinning later this
afternoon and evening. No other big changes.

Original "near term" discussion...

the front is still to the west and will cross the area this
morning. Cannot totally rule out a shower, especially across
northeast oh and northwest pa where there is deeper moisture,
but will only mention a slight chance for northwest pa. There is
a somewhat better opportunity for a shower there as in addition
to the front, a weak trough will cross eastern lake erie and nw
pa later today. Stratus will develop across parts of northeast
oh and northwest pa this morning and stratocumulus will follow
the front this morning so it will become mostly cloudy to partly
cloudy in most areas for a while, then skies will slowly clear
as drier air and mixing increases this afternoon. It will start
out humid this morning but as mixing increases today, the drier
air will filter in.

Highs temperatures are tricky. It will start out warm this morning
but cold advection will increase. Loaded the model h8 temperatures
adiabatically and it gave mostly lower 80s for highs. A few spots
could sneak into the mid 80s.

Skies should be clear mostly clear for a while tonight and dew
points will finally be down. Lows will not get as cool as they could
since clouds will increase ahead of a fairly strong short wave
diving across the lower great lakes for Saturday. The boundary
layer will be dry and stable but with enough upward motion, there
will be showers. The models generate some cape, especially the
nam, and will include the mention of thunder. The better chance for
thunder might be farther south where the air mass remains more
unstable but given the track of the vort center, will include the
mention of thunder. Will keep the pops in the 40-50 percent range
given the uncertainties on the system but folks with outdoor plans on
Saturday may face a period of showers. Forecast temperatures will be
in the mid upper 70s with the clouds shower threat except around 80
northwest oh where the Sun may come back out in the afternoon.

Short term Saturday night through Monday night
Other than a lingering shower across the east early Saturday night,
the weather will be quiet with high pressure building overhead for
the remainder of the weekend and through Monday. Temperatures will
recover several degrees for Sunday. Kept temperatures in the 80s and
under the 90 degree mark for the i-75 corridor for Monday with a
mostly sunny partially eclipsed sky.

Long term Tuesday through Thursday
Differences for the Tuesday system do not translate in to too many
changes to the sensible weather forecast. Have increased precip
chances to 60 percent, but shifted them in time to straddle 00z wed
with the broader trough lagging some from yesterdays runs. After
highs in the mid 80s Tuesday, the passage of the cold front and the
arrival of canadian high pressure southward across the great lakes
puts us back into the 70s for highs Wednesday and Thursday. Will
likely suffer from lake generated enhanced cloud cover going into
mid week. A second push of colder air Thursday and the possibility
of some moisture with the trough may be enough to produce some
showers from northern oh into NW pa.

Aviation 12z Friday through Tuesday
Patchy ifr stratus was occurring across northeast oh and
northwest pa ahead of a weak cold front. Cannot rule out a
shower as the front crosses the area this morning but kept the
taf forecasts dry given the isolated nature of any shower
development. MVFR stratocumulus will likely develop behind the
front for a while this morning into early afternoon. Winds will
become gusty from the west today. Skies will clear for a while
by early tonight (Friday night). Another weak low pressure
system will approach by Saturday morning and showers may develop
at ktol and kfdy before 12z Saturday.

Outlook... Areas of non-vfr possible in showers Saturday and
again on Tuesday.

Marine
Hoisted a small craft advisory for avon point eastward for midday
through this evening. West-southwest flow will pick up and shift
more westerly late in the afternoon. Waves are expected to build by
or shortly after midday to 3 to 6 feet. This is as low pressure
pulls away from the northern lakes and into canada and high pressure
builds across the lower ohio valley. The east end of the lake will
be choppy again Saturday before high pressure can build more firmly
over the lake. It may be close to small craft advisory conditions
for a time Saturday. By Tuesday southwest flow can be expected on
the lake as the next system approaches.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... Beach hazards statement through late tonight for ohz011-012-
089.

Pa... Beach hazards statement through late tonight for paz001.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Saturday for lez146>149.

Synopsis... Kosarik
near term... Tk kosarik
short term... Oudeman
long term... Oudeman
aviation... Kosarik
marine... Oudeman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45132 - Port Stanley 38 mi88 min SW 19 G 23 73°F 73°F4 ft1006.8 hPa (+0.5)
45164 40 mi88 min SW 14 72°F 74°F1008.6 hPa (+0.6)
AGCM4 40 mi40 min 73°F 1007.5 hPa
45147 - Lake St Clair 42 mi88 min W 16 G 19 73°F 72°F1006.7 hPa
45169 47 mi38 min W 14 G 19 75°F 74°F3 ft68°F
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 49 mi40 min W 17 G 20 77°F 1008.9 hPa67°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 53 mi28 min W 13 G 17 74°F 1008.1 hPa (+0.6)

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland, Burke Lakefront Airport, OH54 mi35 minWSW 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy83°F63°F51%1008.3 hPa

Wind History from BKL (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN8NE8NE10NE12NE11NE13NE10NE7E6E4E4E3SE3SE4SE7SE10SE11SE11S10S10SE12S11SE11S8
2 days agoW7W5NW5N10N7NE4NW3CalmNE3N6NE4NE5NE5E3CalmSW3CalmSE3E4E3E6N4N6N8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.