Sunday, March26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Algonac, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 7:50PM Sunday March 26, 2017 5:18 AM EDT (09:18 UTC) Moonrise 5:41AMMoonset 5:18PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ166 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on-the-lake Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 351 Am Edt Sun Mar 26 2017
Today..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast at 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers with isolated Thunderstorms this afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Showers in the evening. A chance of showers after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. A chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east. A chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ166 Expires:201703261415;;094163 FZUS61 KCLE 260751 GLFLE OPEN LAKE FORECAST FOR LAKE ERIE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 351 AM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE ERIE .SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT OVER CENTRAL OHIO WILL LIFT JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE BY THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT NEAR LAKE ERIE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENTUALLY PULLING THE FRONT WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE 30.30 INCHES WILL MOVE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY EVENING TO LAKE ONTARIO BY THURSDAY THEN WEAKEN AS A LOW 29.80 INCHES MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. LEZ061-163>169-261415-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Algonac, MI
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location: 42.29, -81.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 260732
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
332 am edt Sun mar 26 2017

Synopsis
A stationary front just south of the local area will move north
today. Low pressure over missouri will drift slowly northeast to
lake huron by tonight. The low will force a trough of low
pressure to move east across the region this afternoon. Another
area of low pressure will move slowly northeast to the ohio
valley region by Tuesday and to the DELMARVA peninsula by
Tuesday night as a ridge of high pressure begins to build south
over the local area.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
A pretty tough forecast in store for today once again all
because of the stationary front over the region. Indications are
that the front will begin to lift north as a warm front today as
the low pressure over missouri begins to eject out to the
northeast. That being said, warm air advection will return to
the area once again. Two big factors will play a role in today's
high temperatures. First of all, how much Sun will we get during
the day and second is when will the precipitation arrive with
the trough of low pressure. I anticipate that we will see some
sun breaking through the clouds through the morning hours from
south to north as the warmer air pushes back north. Winds are
expected to increase at 925 mb to 20 to 25 knots and this should
help push the warm air north into the area again. This will
allow temperatures to climb well into the 60s. As the trough
approaches from the west, showers will advance east into the
area. If the showers hold off until the afternoon as expected,
then temperatures could break over the 70 degree mark in most
areas. Will take the middle of the road and go with mainly upper
60s but a bit cooler over toledo as northeast flow could linger
there a bit longer keeping the cooler air in that area.

Due to the upper level trough axis and surface trough pushing
east into the area today, upper level support and warm air
advection could trigger some thunderstorms across the forecast
area. There is the potential that a few of the storms could
become severe, especially since warm sector is pushing back
north again over the area. Actually and reasonably so, SPC does
have portions of the eastern CWA in a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms today.

Short term /6 pm this evening through Wednesday night/
Major model differences this morning making this forecast a bit
difficult. So, will lean in the direction of old fashioned
forecasting. Latest water vapor imagery shows the upper level
low pressure system over missouri finally starting to eject out
to the north. As the low lifts north, it should begin to get
caught up in the upper level jet stream and push to the
northeast. Trough axis extending south from the low will push
east as well and this trend is already evident in the water
vapor. Timing of the trough should put it into the forecast area
by mid day to early afternoon. The trough axis is expected to
push east of the area tonight. The moisture associated with the
trough will exit out to the east. Fair weather will return for
portions of the day on Monday until another wave of low pressure
pushes east into the area. More showers will spread east into
the forecast area Monday afternoon and continue through Tuesday
morning.

Amplification of the upper level ridge will take place over the
forecast area as another trough digs into the eastern slopes of
the rockies resulting in low pressure development into texas.

The upper level ridge will allow surface ridging to build south
across the forecast area Tuesday night through Wednesday night.

Mild temperatures still expected over the next few days as polar
jet remains well north of the forecast area. Will stick with
persistence in the temperature department as there will be no
major changes in air mass through this forecast period.

Long term /Thursday through Saturday/
The long term begins Thursday with the ECMWF and GFS close enough
with correlation to previous runs that yield confidence for the
Thursday forecast. Both models show low pressure in the central
plains, the GFS over ERN ok or nern tx while the ECMWF is centered
more over mo. High pressure will be in ontario and western quebec.

Moisture will be increasing across the area through the day as the
low moves northeast. Will therefore increase clouds through the day
and bring in chance pops for showers in the afternoon. From Thursday
night on the models start to look like they belong on different
planets. The differences are too vast to go into in detail but in
general the ECMWF takes the low northeast across the great lakes
while the GFS builds the high back across the northern lakes and
shunts the low east off the mid atlantic coast. Will go with the
ecmwf entirely which also agrees with our current forecast and is
also supported by wpc surface fronts/pressure. Thus best chance for
precip will be Thursday night and Friday with likely pops in place.

Saturday will have chance pops for any lingering showers. Temps near
to slightly above normal.

Aviation /06z Sunday through Thursday/
Ifr CIGS continue at ktol and just moved out of keri... Otherwise
conditions remainVFR across northern ohio early today. Through
daybreak guidance continues to insist on ifr and lifr across
much of the area. The hrrr however maintainsVFR CIGS as stalled
front turns warm and moves north across the area. For ktol will
bring CIGS up toVFR by 09z although will leave restrictions in
through the overnight hours given proximity of moisture. Same
for kfdy. Further east favor more of aVFR forecast until rain
moves in beginning about 14-15z at kmfd and 18-21z kcle kcak and
kyng. Brought precip into keri after 22z. Could also see a few
thunderstorms in the area as well mainly in the afternoon. Best
instability will come after 20z or so fdy to mfd based on li's.

Outlook... Areas of non-vfr much of the time late Sunday into
tue then again by thu.

Marine
Will continue with the small craft advisory as is for now. Models
do take winds and waves down through the second half of the night
and into Sunday morning as expected but current winds remain gusty
into the 20 to 25 knot range and waves from the buoy off
cleveland was near 7 feet. For the late morning and afternoon
winds will veer to the southeast and decrease to 10 to 15 knots
as weakening low pressure moves from missouri to lake michigan.

The low will continue northeast across the lakes tonight turning
winds southwest by Monday morning behind a weak frontal system.

Another low will follow, this one crossing lake erie early
Tuesday morning. Ahead of the low on Monday, the front will
waffle north across the lake. The front will then drop back
south across the lake behind the low on Tuesday. Canadian high
pressure will build south across the lake Wednesday and
Thursday.

Cle watches/warnings/advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 am edt this morning for
lez143>149.

Synopsis... Lombardy
near term... Lombardy
short term... Lombardy
long term... Tk
aviation... Tk
marine... Tk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
AGCM4 40 mi48 min 38°F 1018.4 hPa
45169 47 mi28 min ESE 16 G 23 37°F 36°F7 ft36°F
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 49 mi48 min ENE 21 G 23 38°F 1017.9 hPa37°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 53 mi78 min E 7 G 8.9 1019.3 hPa (-2.4)

Wind History for Fairport, OH
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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S7
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S9
G13
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G22
S14
G18
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G17
S19
G28
S20
G25

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland, Burke Lakefront Airport, OH54 mi25 minNE 108.00 miPartly Cloudy40°F37°F89%1017 hPa

Wind History from BKL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5S3CalmS3NE8NE10NE20NE15N10NE14NE15NE16NE17NE18NE13NE12NE11NE13NE10NE9NE9NE10NE9NE10
1 day agoS16
G26
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G34
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SW13S16
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S3CalmSW3S4
2 days agoSE5SE5SE4SE9SE7SE7SE9SE8
G15
N12N11NE12NE11N8S10SE6SE6SE10
G15
SE7SE11SE15S18S13S18
G25
S19

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.