Monday, October23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Algonac, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:51AMSunset 6:34PM Monday October 23, 2017 7:30 AM EDT (11:30 UTC) Moonrise 10:19AMMoonset 8:18PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ166 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on-the-lake Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 359 Am Edt Mon Oct 23 2017
Today..South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southeast. A slight chance of showers late this morning. A chance of rain early this afternoon, then rain likely late. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet.
Tonight..Southeast winds to 30 knots becoming southwest. Rain in the evening, then showers after midnight. A chance of showers late. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds to 30 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds to 30 knots becoming west and diminishing to 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Wednesday night. Waves 6 to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers Friday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
LEZ166 Expires:201710231430;;274802 FZUS61 KCLE 230759 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 359 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure 29.80 inches across southern Indiana will track north-northeast across Michigan, deepening to 29.20 inches by midnight. This will take a cold front across Lake Erie this evening. The low will linger across the Great Lakes through Wednesday as it slowly fills. A ridge averaging 29.90 inches will build over the lake Wednesday night with a warm front lifting northeast across the lake Thursday. Low pressure 29.40 inches will track across the northern lakes and take a cold front east across the lake sometime on Friday. LEZ061-166>169-231430-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Algonac, MI
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location: 42.29, -81.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 231112
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
712 am edt Mon oct 23 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure over the lower ohio valley will deepen as it moves
north across the great lakes today into tonight pulling a strong
cold front across the area. The low will slowly move north into
ontario on Tuesday and a trough of low pressure aloft and at the
surface will linger across the great lakes through mid-week. High
pressure will slide across the area on Thursday. The next cold
front will approach on Friday.

Near term through Tuesday
Made some minor adjustments to the early morning temperatures
based on current trends and the pops with regard to the arrival
of the showers. No other changes for the early morning update.

Original near term discussion...

waiting for the wave of low pressure on the front to move north
in conjunction with the upper low that is opening up and
lifting out. The front and rain will be slow to move east until
the wave passes. In the meantime we will continue to see a dry
down slope southeast flow. Eventually the upper dynamics and
deep moisture will win out and rain will overspread the area,
especially this afternoon and evening. Cannot rule out a
lightning strike somewhere as the stronger upward motion crosses
the area but will not specifically mention thunderstorms. The
heaviest rain will shift north and east of the area tonight.

Temperatures will warm to around 70 in most areas before the
rain arrives and some sections of NE oh and NW pa will climb
into the lower and mid 70s, the last of the warm weather.

The low level jet will increase today, especially as the surface low
begins to deepen as it moves north into the great lakes later today
and tonight. The atmosphere is warm and relatively stable now but as
the rain showers arrive the downward transfer of wind will be
efficient and the south to southeast wind will be enhanced
especially in the downslope areas. The increase in the low level jet
should occur just as the showers arrive at erie county, pa later
this afternoon and evening and there is potential for 40-45 knot
wind gusts there. Will issue a wind advisory for erie county, pa for
late afternoon into tonight. Elsewhere across northeast oh and
northwest pa wind gusts of 30 to 35 knots are likely. We will have
to watch for stronger wind gusts with the passage of the cold front
from west to east this evening.

Almost as fast as the first upper low lifts out, a second strong
short wave is progged to drop into the trough and close off. This
will probably push a few more showers across the area on Tuesday
along with significantly cooler air. Highs on Tuesday will only be
in the 50s.

Short term Tuesday night through Thursday night
The low across the great lakes will continue to fill and open
through mid week and as another potent and digging trough approaches
for the second half of the week. Some showers will remain in the
cool cyclonic flow Tuesday night and Wednesday. Wednesday will be
the coolest day of the work week and it will definitely feel it.

With still a bit of a breeze and sub-zero h8 temps, have lowered
highs to just a few degrees on either side of 50. Ridging will be
brief on Thursday and a warm front will lift north across the area
helping slightly to dig us out of the thermal trough.

Long term Friday through Sunday
Another push of cold air arrives for the weekend as shortwave energy
digs a sizable trough across the great lakes and ohio valley. There
still is some spread in the timing of the cold front, but it looks
to fall sometime on Friday with showers developing overhead. The
cold air behind this system is colder and surges with two waves to
round out the weekend. It is still to far out to know what the
precipitation potential may be. Have some precip mentioned through
the weekend. Left it as all rain for now. Highs fall back around 50
again, but a day topping out in the mid upper 40s is entirely
possible. Lows will be in the 30s away from the lake this weekend,
especially the second half of the weekend.

Aviation 12z Monday through Friday
Low pressure will track across the midwest to the central great
lakes today into tonight. Rain will spread from southwest to
northeast across the area today, mainly this afternoon.

Ceilings will come down to MVFR with local ifr especially across
northwest ohio this afternoon and evening. The south wind will
become gusty with gusts 25 to 35 knots with 40 knots possible
near keri by late afternoon and evening. Visibilities in the
heavier showers will average 3 to 5 miles with local ifr
visibilities possible. A thunderstorm is not out of the
question.

Outlook... Areas of non-vfr in rain showers through Wednesday.

Marine
Unsettled conditions expected on the lake much of the week. Small
craft advisory conditions will begin later this afternoon as low
pressure across the lower ohio valley deepens considerably and
tracks north-northeast to northern lower mi by this evening. South-
southeast winds will increase to 15 to 25 knots this afternoon and
then to 30 knots for tonight. Winds will be between 20 and 30 knots
for much of the time from tonight through Wednesday. Wednesday winds
become more westerly and a brief ridge works across the ohio valley.

Will need to monitor closely for the potential for gales over the
next couple of days. There are a few times from now through
Wednesday that the lake could touch gales, but so far that looks to
be more the case across the canadian waters. Gale force gusts
likely. For the end of the week southwest winds increase again for
Thursday and Friday with a northern plains northern great lakes low
track.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... Wind advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 10 pm edt this
evening for paz001-002.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 4 am edt
Thursday for lez146>149.

Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 4 pm edt
Wednesday for lez142>145.

Synopsis... Kosarik
near term... Kosarik
short term... Oudeman
long term... Oudeman
aviation... Kosarik
marine... Oudeman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45132 - Port Stanley 38 mi90 min S 18 G 19 65°F 64°F3 ft1015.1 hPa (-1.5)
AGCM4 40 mi42 min 64°F 1013.7 hPa
45147 - Lake St Clair 42 mi90 min SSE 12 G 14 62°F 56°F1013.6 hPa (-1.5)
45169 47 mi20 min S 14 G 18 66°F 65°F2 ft57°F
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 49 mi42 min S 14 G 20 63°F 1015.7 hPa51°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 53 mi30 min S 6 G 8.9 63°F 1013.9 hPa (-1.7)

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland, Burke Lakefront Airport, OH54 mi37 minSSE 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy65°F50°F59%1015 hPa

Wind History from BKL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE11S14SE14S11S7S10S14
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1 day agoS13SE10S10SE7S8S7S5SE7SE6SE6SE6SE9S12S10S12S11S10S9SE7SE6SE9SE9SE12S13
2 days agoSE7S4SE7SE6SE7S7SE6SW5N4NE5NE5S4S4S6S8SE9SE10SE8SE6SE4S5SE10SE10S10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.