Tuesday, April25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ypsilanti, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 8:29PM Tuesday April 25, 2017 8:27 AM EDT (12:27 UTC) Moonrise 5:26AMMoonset 6:34PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 547 Pm Edt Thu Apr 20 2017
.a strong Thunderstorm approaching the waters... The areas affected include... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... At 546 pm edt...doppler radar indicated a strong Thunderstorm... Capable of producing winds to up 30 knots. This Thunderstorm was located 45 nm west of luna pier...or 46 nm west of north cape... Moving east at 40 knots. The strong Thunderstorm will be near... Monroe harbor and bolles harbor of refuge around 700 pm edt. Woodland beach...stony point and detroit beach around 705 pm edt. Detroit river light...lake erie metropark harbor and estral beach around 710 pm edt. Other locations impacted by the strong Thunderstorm include woodland beach...stony point...detroit beach and estral beach. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes. This a strong Thunderstorm will likely produce winds up to 30 knots...and could pose a serious hazard for boaters. A special marine warning may eventually be required when this storm reaches the nearshore waters. Boaters should consider heading for shore before the storm arrives. && a severe Thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 800 pm edt for southeastern michigan...the adjacent waters of lake erie...and the adjacent waters of lake saint claire. Lat...lon 4173 8345 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4196 8328 4202 8324 4207 8323 4207 8314 4203 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341 4172 8347
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 Expires:201704202315;;007288 FZUS73 KDTX 202147 MWSDTX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 547 PM EDT THU APR 20 2017 LCZ423-LEZ444-202315-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ypsilanti, MI
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location: 42.3, -83.54     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 251140
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
740 am edt Tue apr 25 2017

Aviation
Organized moist isentropic ascent is occurring from southeast to
northwest through the CWA at press time. This has led to substantial
moistening withVFR/MVFR stratus tracking into southeastern
michigan. Some light sprinkle activity developing north of the I 69
corridor at the moment, but overwhelming trend per regional mosaic
is that shower activity will remain east of the terminals this
morning. Later today, best warm frontal forcing will stay
progressive pushing well to the north. This will lead to an
amplifying ridge for tonight and Wednesday. Models are very strong
with the signal for high stability throughout the 3.0 to 12.0 kft
agl layer. Could see some persistent cloud at 5000 or 6000 ft agl
before the subsidence inversion can lower down through that level.

//dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings at or below 5000 ft this morning.

Prev discussion
Issued at 351 am edt Tue apr 25 2017
discussion...

the end of the long stretch of dry air is drawing near as a broad
and deep longwave trough develops over the western two thirds of the
country. Plenty of energy within this trough as 150+ knot jet feeds
into it out of the north pacific. For the most part, the area will
remain dry through Wednesday evening as the downstream ridge
steepens in response to this trough. One caveat to this will be a
short period this morning when a band of moisture in a region of
isentropic ascent lifting out ahead of the cutoff low over the se
conus clips the eastern great lakes. Looks like the moisture will be
largely in the 4-10kft layer with dry resident airmass at the
surface needing to be worked over to get precip to reach the ground.

Looks like the wind field will quickly reorient themselves as the
low drifts up the coast today which will pull the moisture and
forcing back east of the region. So just a brief period this morning
of a slight chance of light rain in the forecast around the eastern
thumb, but could end up being more virga than anything.

Will keep a good deal of clouds around today with southeasterly flow
which will moderate temperatures somewhat, but the resident airmass
has proven to be good for temps nearing 70. So expectations are for
much the same, hedging a little lower along the lake shadow for our
eastern locations. Lows tonight will be on the mild side, mostly in
the low 50s, as dewpoints climb with sustained southeasterly flow.

Strong wave will be entering the base of the longwave trough on
Wednesday which will tighten the SW gradient between the trough and
east coast ridge. Initially this will set up the moisture and
instability corridor over western mi and wi. Strong WAA with winds
turning more to the south will send temperatures up toward 80 as 700
to 850mb warm layer spikes in the mid teens. This warm layer should
cap off any attempts at showers drifting east into the area or
developing overhead with the strong mid/upper level lapse rates and
weak upper level instability. Having said that, the SW to NE slope
of the moisture/instability plume may end up clipping part of the
saginaw valley thus they will have a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast.

Best activity over SE mi will occur on Thursday as a wave noted
earlier exits the base of the trough and lift northeastward into the
great lakes. The associated surface low will pull a cold front
across lower mi. Even a few days out, models are struggling to come
together on orientation of the jet streaks and strength of the
trough. Still enough support with an afternoon cold front, a few
hundred j/kg of cape, shear values over 40 knots, and good moisture
to support high chance pops for showers and thunderstorms.

May get a brief break from showers on Friday before the trough
ejects the next few waves through the weekend. Models do agree with
bringing rain in Saturday ahead of the next low, persisting through
Sunday.

Marine...

a long duration of moderate southeasterly flow will exist through
Wednesday as the region remains between exiting high pressure and
low pressue lifting into the mid mississippi valley. Sustained wind
of 15 to 20 knots at times, but with a higher degree of stability
under this pattern limiting the gust potential. Winds turn
southwesterly as low pressure lifts into great lakes on Thursday.

Dtx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Cb
discussion... Drk
marine... ... .Cb
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 37 mi87 min E 6 G 7 50°F 1012.5 hPa (+0.3)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 38 mi87 min ENE 13 G 14 51°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 42 mi69 min E 8 G 9.9 53°F 1010.5 hPa49°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Last
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NE6
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N3
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N5
G11
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NE8
G12
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G15
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NE4
N3
G6
N2
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N1
N1

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI5 mi94 minE 610.00 miOvercast52°F45°F77%1011 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI12 mi94 minE 510.00 miOvercast51°F44°F77%1011.5 hPa
Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Municipal Airport, MI12 mi94 minE 510.00 miOvercast51°F45°F80%1010.7 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI24 mi74 minE 410.00 miOvercast50°F44°F81%1011.5 hPa

Wind History from YIP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5NE6E6NE8E9
G14
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G17
E10--E10E11E12E10E17
G20
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E11E9NE4E4NE5E6E6E6
1 day agoCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3S6S14SE10S9SE6Calm--CalmCalmE4N3--NE7NE6NE7N5
2 days agoN7N7NE9N12NE14
G22
NE10N10
G19
NE9NE8NE7NE10NE8N7E5SE4Calm--CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.