Monday, April24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Scituate, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:45AMSunset 7:37PM Monday April 24, 2017 9:08 AM EDT (13:08 UTC) Moonrise 4:58AMMoonset 5:27PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 744 Am Edt Mon Apr 24 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening...
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming E this afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog. Rain. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Patchy fog. Rain. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Wed..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Rain.
Wed night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt... Diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Areas of drizzle and rain likely.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of drizzle. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height...which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 744 Am Edt Mon Apr 24 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Weak high pres remains over the waters through Mon. By Tue a late season coastal storm tracks up the eastern seaboard and brings periods of heavy rain and possible east gales across the waters Tue and Wed. The low moves away from the waters early Thursday with a south wind developing. A cold front will then cross the waters late Friday or Friday night. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period...please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Scituate, MA
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location: 42.33, -70.57     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 241101
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
701 am edt Mon apr 24 2017

Synopsis
Weak high pressure remains over the region today bringing another
day of dry and seasonably warm weather. Low pressure will slowly
track up the east coast Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing periods of
heavy rain, gusty winds and the risk of coastal flooding. Drier and
warmer conditions will briefly return Thursday. A frontal system
will bring scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms Friday.

A more active, warmer weather pattern beginning Saturday continuing
into early next week.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
7 am update... No major changes to the forecast.

Another spectacular day of spring weather courtesy of confluent flow
aloft over the region resulting in a ridge of high pressure at the
surface across the area. Associated subsidence will provide dry
weather and sunshine through high clouds. Airmass a few degrees
warmer than yesterday so expecting highs in the upper 60s to low
70s inland with cooling seabreezes keeping the coastal plain in
the upper 50s to lower 60s. Would not be surprised to see some
locations in the ct river valley get up to 75 degrees!
given deep boundary layer mixing with model soundings supporting
mixing beyond 800 mb, airmass will likely over perform. High
temperatures a blend of short-term consensus guidance.

The only wrinkle to today's forecast is how long will low clouds /
stratus linger along the immediate south coast and islands. High
resolution short range guidance doing a decent job of tracking this
low level moisture into the area. This guidance shows low clouds
beginning to erode late morning into the afternoon.

Elsewhere sunshine will give way to thicker canopy of mid and high
clouds this afternoon on the southern horizon.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday/
Tonight...

mid level confluent flow lifts northward allowing deep layer
moisture to advance into southern new england. Thus trend will be
for increasing clouds and the chance of spotty light rain/drizzle
toward Tue morning from south to north. Increasing easterly gradient
between 1035 mb surface high over southeast quebec and 1001 mb low
over the carolinas will support an increasing chilly onshore wind.

Tuesday...

closed/vertical stacked low off the sc coast lifts northward to the
mid atlc region. Low and mid level onshore wind anomalies begin to
increase into southern new england. Thus firehose of moisture off
the atlantic will result in periods of rain... Mainly light but
becoming more widespread Tue along with increasing onshore winds.

Raw/damp day with a chilly ese wind with strongest winds along the
eastern ma coastline with gusts up to 30 mph. Onshore winds and
precip will result in a chilly day with highs only in the 40s... Low
50s south coast.

Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/
*/ highlights...

- heaviest rain Tuesday night thru Wednesday
- accompanying fresh water and coastal flooding concerns
- areas of fog and drizzle for Wednesday night, soupy mess
- possible improvement Thursday, possibly soupy again overnight
- sweeping cold front and some shower activity into Friday night
- an active, warmer weather pattern Saturday onward
*/ overview...

interpreting the N hemispheric pattern, the GFS / GEFS continues to
forecast a stronger mjo event in the central pacific (phase 8) while
the ec / ecens is more subdued. Aside, still think there is a sub-
tropical connection from the pacific within the low-levels out ahead
of broader h5 troughing over the N central pacific that contributes
to a stronger h5 ridging pattern into the NE pacific and subsequent
downstream amplified mid-latitude trough-ridge-trough pattern across
the CONUS into the atlantic. A clockwise-gyre over the atlantic with
a counter-clockwise across the conus, most obvious is the persistent
sw flow over the NE CONUS aloft, a pattern supporting an environment
across new england of warmer temperatures, higher dewpoints. Coupled
with any forcing mechanisms, i.E., trailing cold fronts ahead of lee-
cyclogenesis, would expect shots of showers and thunderstorms. Small-
scale details in the discussion below, most importantly the midweek
coastal low with sub-tropical connections.

*/ discussion...

Tuesday night through Wednesday...

moderate to heavy rain forecast. Potential flood impacts, interior
and coastal which will be highlighted below. There is still an air
of uncertainty. The 24.0z NAM continues a slower trend while there
is spread in individual members of the 23.21z sref. Global models
have slowed a bit though continue to exhibit consistency with over-
all trends. Their accompanying ensembles show decent clustering of
individual members. However, some concern expressed in earlier for-
casts that the building mid-level ridge ahead of deeper troughing
upstream may result in sub-tropical energy remaining cut-off from
the mid-latitude flow, that it hangs off the E CONUS rather than
lifting N as model solutions around late last week were suggesting
in their long-range. While all solutions are succinct that with the
building ridge the sub-tropical low deamplifies, it may be the case
that the low hangs out well through Thursday till it is kicked E by
stronger synoptics Friday. With this forecast, will go with a non-
nam consensus.

In brevity, energy presently sweeping over the SE CONUS lifts N with
the mid-latitude flow along the E CONUS having latched into deep sub-
tropical moisture. GEFS / ecens / SREF continues to signal around +2
sd anomalies of h925-85 convergent inflow and precipitable waters as
well as strong probabilities of a 1-2" rainfall event, surface dew-
points exceeding 60f, and E onshore flow, mainly along the immediate
coast, 15 to 20 mph sustained with gusts 30 to 35 mph. Interrogating
operational models for more detail, still seeing that with low-mid
level ascent of the warm-moist conveyor belt ahead of the h5-7 vort-
max of rich theta-e sub-tropical air, h85 dewpoints exceed +10c as
freezing levels are pushed above 11 kft over much of S new england
beneath which the column is completely saturated. With deep-layer
forcing of precipitable waters exceeding 1.6" (notably the daily max
from SPC precipitable water climatology for 0z and 12z on april 26th
is around 1.2"), looking at an efficient warm-rain process.

However, per consensus of forecast guidance, the low deamplifies as
it remains progressive. A good slug of rain is forecast, but perhaps
impacts will remain isolated. Will highlight those briefly below.

1.) fresh water flooding. USGS streamflows are in normal capacity
based on climatology. Latest ensemble forecasts continue to suggest
that rivers remain within their banks. Forecasting a 1 to 2 inch
rainfall event, the heaviest within the forecast period, there is
still a risk of nuisance flooding such as ponding of water on roads,
urban / poor drainage issues. Individual cips analogs waver on the
favored area of heavy rain, thus thinking all of S new england is at
risk of seeing 1-2" though have greater concern of higher amounts
along e-slopes of higher terrain with E onshore flow.

2.) coastal flooding. E fetch during multiple astronomically high
tide cycles, coupled with heavy rain, looking at the possibility of
minor coastal flooding along vulnerable shoreline roads considering
wave action plus a 0.5 to 1.0 foot surge, at the minimum splashover.

Could see inundation of such shoreline roads. Can't rule out beach
erosion. In addition, for shoreline communities, during high tide
cycles during heavy rain, there could be drainage issues which could
lead to flooding. Particular focus on Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning high tides. As reference, boston tides listed below.

Boston high tides (flood stage 12.5 feet)...

10.88 feet / Monday 10:33 pm
10.87 feet / Tuesday 10:59 am
11.47 feet / Tuesday 11:20 pm
11.15 feet / Wednesday 11:50 am
please see the coastal flooding section for additional details. Will
continue to highlight potential threats within the hazardous weather
outlook.

In closing, while there's still uncertainty, will continue with high
categorical pops. Negative showalters and a conditionally unstable
airmass aloft, can't rule out a rumble of thunder, but won't prevail
in the forecast. Feel such an environment supports embedded heavier
showers. Within likely to high categorical pops will highlight a
moderate rainfall event. Will go with a widespread 1-2" event with
particular focus s/e with convergence of low level inflow a higher
moisture content as well as along the e-slopes of high terrain. Can
not rule out higher amounts up to 3".

Wednesday night through Thursday night...

dreary, drizzly at times. Not an overwhelming amount of confidence.

While expecting lots of trapped low level moisture beneath a measure
of low level ascent, near-stable temperatures with areas of drizzle
and fog, there is some concern the sub-tropical low ends up slower,
lingering longer. Some of the heavier rain may fall early on with
the low drifting n/e later. Not entirely sure we'll mix out during
the day Thursday, however if we do it should end up mild beneath
more than likely scattered to broken cloud decks.

Friday into Friday night...

a shot at warmer weather prior to a sweeping cold front with some
shower activity. Given strong synoptics pushing in from the w, s
flow should amplify and aid in mixing out the low-level environment.

Clearing out, we should warm into the 70s. The cold front as well as
showers later on dissipate in their progression e, thinking as a
result of more parallel low to mid level flow along the front and
beneath enhanced ridging out ahead of deeper upstream troughing.

Chance pops. Some elevated instability so will keep with the mention
of thunder, however confidence is low. If any, mainly over the ct
river valley. Decent sw-ne unidirectional shear, a weak cap around
h85. Not clear cut.

Saturday onward...

a busy pattern. A consensus of forecast guidance signals that the
pick of the weekend is Saturday. A warm front slowly lifting Sunday
possibly into Monday, is quickly followed up by a cold front into
Tuesday. Shower and thunderstorm chances appear likely though in
greater detail with respect to timing and impacts remain uncertain.

Will keep with chance pops for now.

Aviation /12z Monday through Friday/
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Tuesday/...

today... High confidence.

Vfr light winds, however except light onshore near the coast.

Low risk of patchy ifr CIGS along the south coast of ma/ri but
burning off toVFR by 15z-16z. Few-sct high clouds becoming
thicker by the end of the day.

Tonight... Moderate confidence.

OverallVFR trending downward to MVFR towards morning with -ra.

However, there are some signals indicating low clouds along the
s coast with some patchy fog. Could see ifr develop along the
coast. Lower confidence at this time. Will keep S coast terminals
MVFR at lowest.

Tuesday... Moderate confidence.

Confident on the trends but not so much on the timing. Trending
toward MVFR-ifr in periods of -ra/ra. E winds increasing to
20-25 kt.

Kbos taf... High confidence. Seabreeze redeveloping 15-16z today.

Kbdl taf... High confidence.

Outlook /Tuesday night through Friday/...

Tuesday night through Wednesday... Moderate confidence.

MVFR / ifr CIGS with -ra/ra. Likely visibility impacts with ra. High
confidence of lower CIGS over high terrain. It is possible over the
cape and islands we'll see some possible improvement for a period. E-
se winds 15 to 20 kts sustained. Gusts up to 35 kts. Possible llws
impacts for s/e coastal terminals with 40-45 kt S winds 2 kft agl.

Wednesday night... Moderate confidence.

Ifr - vlifr. Areas of fg and dz. Winds becoming light out of the e.

Lingering llws early on with continued 40-45 kt S winds 2 kft agl.

Thursday into Thursday night... Low confidence.

Gradual improvement, slowest n/e, during the day. CIGS liftingVFR.

Sct-bkn cigs. Filling back in overnight lowering back down to ifr -
lifr. Possible patchy dz and fg. Continued light E winds turning s.

Friday into Friday night... Low confidence.

Improving during the morning, CIGS lifting. Sct-bknVFR. Chance of
shra ahead of a wind shift with S winds turning w. Low risk tsra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Tuesday/... High confidence.

Today...

tranquil boating weather with high pres overhead. Low clouds may
limit vsby across the S waters early this morning.

Tonight...

increasing pressure gradient between low pres to the S and high
pressure to the N will lead to increasing e-ne winds developing
overnight over the S coastal waters with gusts to 25 kt after
midnight.

Tuesday...

pres gradient continues to tighten between low pressure entering
the mid atlantic region and high pressure over SE quebec. E winds
of 20-30 kt likely along with limited visibility in periods rain.

Outlook /Tuesday night - Friday night/...

* small craft advisories likely for a majority of the period.

Tuesday night through Wednesday...

weakening coastal low slowly approaching from the s. Accompanying
heavy rain and breezy E winds sustained around 15 to 20 kts with
gusts up to 35 kts. Waves building 8 to 10 feet on the outer waters.

Visibility impacts with heavier rain, possibly improving at times.

Wednesday night through Thursday night...

light winds overall, E initially and slowly becoming s. Seas remain
high around 8 to 10 feet on the outer waters, diminishing slowly
into Friday morning but remaining above 5 feet on the outer waters.

Some visibility impacts along the near-shore possible with fog.

Friday into Friday night...

increasing S winds ahead of an approaching cold front expected to
sweep the waters during the overnight period with some possible
shower activity. May have some issues with S flow over remnant e
swell from earlier in the week. Waves on the outer waters remain
above 5 feet.

Tides/coastal flooding
* continued confidence of potential minor flooding impacts during
astronomically high tides Monday night through Wednesday
* greatest impact expected along the E massachusetts coastline
persistent easterly fetch along with astronomically high tide cycles
from Monday night through Wednesday, with the height of the winds
Tuesday into Wednesday. Strongest sustained winds, mainly along the
e ma coast, of 15 to 20 mph, gusts up to 30 mph.

This presents the possibility of around a 1.0 foot surge on top of
high astronomical tides. Along with wave action, with seas building
8 to 11 feet immediately offshore of s/se atlantic-facing beaches,
an increasing confidence of minor flooding impacts, if not at least
splashover. Inundation of vulnerable shoreline roads is possible.

Beach erosion is also possible, especially for atlantic-facing beaches.

Boston high tides (flood stage 12.5 feet)...

10.88 feet / Monday 10:33 pm
10.87 feet / Tuesday 10:59 am
11.47 feet / Tuesday 11:20 pm
11.15 feet / Wednesday 11:50 am
a final word, can't rule out additional impacts as a result of heavy
rain. Combined with high tides there is the potential of poor drainage
issues along all coastlines, including the S coast of ma.

Box watches/warnings/advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 4 am to 8 pm edt Tuesday for
anz232>235-237-255-256.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm to 8 pm edt Tuesday for anz231-
250-251-254.

Synopsis... Nocera/sipprell
near term... Nocera/sipprell
short term... Nocera
long term... Sipprell
aviation... Nocera/sipprell
marine... Nocera/sipprell
tides/coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 4 mi78 min SSW 3.9 G 5.8 47°F 45°F3 ft1020.4 hPa (+2.2)
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 13 mi124 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 47°F 44°F3 ft1020 hPa
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 25 mi50 min 54°F 47°F1021.2 hPa
44090 36 mi64 min 44°F1 ft
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 39 mi32 min 43°F3 ft
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 44 mi68 min SW 8.9 G 8.9 46°F 1020.3 hPa (+1.9)41°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 48 mi78 min SSW 14 G 14 45°F 44°F3 ft1021.3 hPa (+1.3)43°F

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Marshfield Airport, MA17 mi73 minN 010.00 miFair52°F41°F67%1021.3 hPa

Wind History from GHG (wind in knots)
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365CalmNW4CalmSW3CalmCalmCalm6
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Tide / Current Tables for Scituate, Massachusetts
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Scituate
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:01 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:07 AM EDT     9.57 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:24 PM EDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:31 PM EDT     10.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.84.82.60.8-00.72.54.66.98.79.69.17.65.63.31.1-0.2-01.53.76.28.49.89.8

Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Marblehead Channel
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:35 AM EDT     -0.43 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:11 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:56 AM EDT     0.47 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:01 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:38 PM EDT     -0.44 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:32 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:17 PM EDT     0.51 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:29 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.10.30.50.50.40.30-0.2-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.20.20.50.50.50.40.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.