Saturday, June23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stottville, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:16AMSunset 8:38PM Saturday June 23, 2018 4:24 AM EDT (08:24 UTC) Moonrise 4:18PMMoonset 2:39AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 315 Am Edt Sat Jun 23 2018
Today..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt late. Seas around 2 ft. Slight chance of tstms. Occasional showers.
Tonight..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Mon..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..N winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 315 Am Edt Sat Jun 23 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front approaches today, and lifts to the north tonight into Sunday. A cold front passes Sunday afternoon and evening. High pressure then builds through mid week, giving way to a warm front Wednesday night into Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stottville, NY
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location: 42.33, -73.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 230541
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
141 am edt Sat jun 23 2018

Synopsis
A storm system will move from the lower great lakes
region and ohio valley this morning towards the northeast bringing
intermittent rain showers and isolated thunderstorms to the region,
along with cloudy skies and cool temperatures. Although this storm
will move out for Sunday, another cold front will keep the threat of
showers and thunderstorms around, mainly for Sunday afternoon. Drier
weather is expected for the start of next week, with temperatures
moderating above normal through the week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 125 am edt... Warm advection continues over pa into ny
ahead of the warm front and the closed upper level low over the
midwest. Most of the echoes on the kenx radar has been virga,
due to very dry lower-levels evident per the 00z kaly sounding.

Clouds will continue to thicken and lower with some sprinkles or
light showers possible especially towards 08z-10z south and
west of the capital district. We retooled the pops a bit based
on the radar trends and the 3-km hrrr. Min temps will be warmer
than last night with mid high clouds and light winds preventing
a free fall of temps with lows in the 50s to lower 60s this
morning.

Short term 6 am this morning through Sunday night
During the day Saturday, the upper level low will be lifting
towards the northeast. However, it will be opening up and
weakening as moves within the southwest flow aft and runs into
ridging in place. The surface low pressure area will also be
weakening as it moves towards western new york, although a
secondary area of low pressure looks to be developing across the
mid-atlantic states along the storm's warm front. With this
setup in place, our area will remain on the northerly and cooler
side of the storm system, with the light low-level flow out of
the east.

Showers will continue to increase in coverage through the
day. Although it won't be raining the entire day, it will be on
and off and models still disagree on which areas will see the
highest concentration of showers. Most of the precip looks
fairly light, although cannot rule out some moderate bursts from
time to time. There could be a rumble of thunder, but any
instability will be elevated due to the strong inversion around
850 hpa and no storms will be strong severe.

With the clouds and showers around, temps will only MAX out in
the 60s across the region, with even some upper 50s for the
adirondacks and greens.

On Saturday night, the secondary low pressure area will be
taking over as it lifts towards eastern new england. As a
result, showers look to diminish in coverage, although still
can't rule one out. It will stay cloudy and damp and with the
recent rainfall, there will probably be a lot of fog and low
clouds remaining in place through the overnight hours with lows
in the upper 50s to low 60s.

On Sunday, the next system will quickly be approaching from the
northwest, as another shortwave and surface cold front moves in
from the great lakes. Another round of showers look to occur
with this boundary, mainly for the afternoon and early evening
hours. With some breaks of Sun expected ahead of the front,
there could be some surface-based instability and some thunder
will be around as well, especially by late in the day, as the
approaching shortwave allows for better height falls and a more
favorable setup for thunderstorms. Pwats will remain fairly
high, so any thunderstorm will be capable of heavy downpours,
but weak lapse rates and limited 0-6 km shear should prevent any
storms from getting too tall or strong. With some sunshine,
highs should reach into the 70s, with even some low 80s for far
southern areas.

Showers and any thunderstorms will quickly diminish on Sunday
evening with the passage of the cold front and it should start
drying out for Sunday night. Lows will be in the 50s to low 60s
with decreasing dewpoints a light northwesterly breeze.

Long term Monday through Friday
The long term forecast period will begin with a low pressure system
departing to our east with some lingering showers possible primarily
over western new england. High pressure will build in mid week with
a low pressure system approaching from the west during the mid-to-
late week time period.

Monday and Tuesday... As a low pressure system departs to our east
and cyclonic flow overhead, there will be a slight chance for some
lingering rain showers over the region with higher confidence over
the new england zones. Strong upper ridging and surface high
pressure will build in from the northwest on Tuesday and linger into
Wednesday. Warm temps in the upper 70s to low 80s and sunny
conditions will accompany the high pressure. How strong and how much
blocking the aforementioned high provides will be a key player in the
timing of the approaching front on Wednesday into Thursday.

Wednesday through Friday... Clouds will increase on Wednesday with an
approaching shortwave and associated low over the great lakes. The
associated cold front looks to progress through the region somewhere
in the late Wednesday into early Thursday time period. The timing
will be crucial for thunderstorm potential and for now looks
unfavorable with an overnight passage as suggested by the GFS (the
ecmwf being even slower). With the low approaching and a strong high
off the east coast there will be a good pressure gradient and low
level jet in place as well. This system will have to be monitored
as we approach mid next week.

As the system departs to our east conditions should start to dry
out late Thursday or early Friday as some weak mid-level height
rises push into the region. Global guidance is suggesting some
atlantic moisture advecting northward into the region with southerly
flow and possibly a weak boundary moving through the region on
Friday so have kept slight chance to chance pops in the forecast for
now. The southerly southwesterly flow will like usher in some
unseasonably warm temperature into the mid to upper 80s by the end
of the week.

Aviation 06z Saturday through Wednesday
Low pressure advancing toward the area from the west will bring
an increasing chance for showers to the TAF sites today.

Conditions will beVFR to start but lower CIGS will develop this
afternoon with increasing moisture resulting in areas of MVFR
cigs mainly 2-3 kft. MVFR conditions are expected tonight with
low clouds and patchy fog. Localized ifr conditions will
develop overnight with fog and lowering cloud decks. Winds will
be variable at less than 10 kts.

Outlook...

Sunday: high operational impact. Likely shra... Tsra. Sunday
night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra. Monday: low
operational impact. Slight chance of shra. Monday night: no
operational impact. No sig wx. Tuesday: no operational impact.

No sig wx. Tuesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Wednesday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra... Tsra.

Fire weather
Cloudy and damp conditions are expected over the weekend as an
area of low pressure moves across the region for Saturday and a
cold front moves through for Sunday. Rh values will only fall as
low as 60 to 75 percent on both Saturday and Sunday. Most of the
region should see in excess of a quarter inch of rainfall, with
totals generally between one half inch and one inch of rain by
Sunday evening. East to southeast winds will be 5 to 10 mph on
Saturday and will be switching to the west to southwest at 5 to
10 mph on Sunday.

Hydrology
No hydro problems are expected over weekend and into next week.

Most of the entire hydro service area hsa is under abnormally
dry conditions according to the latest us drought monitor.

As a storm system moves across the region, periods of showers
and a few thunderstorms are expected between late tonight and
Sunday evening. Basin average rainfall amounts are expected to
range between half an inch to an inch, though locally higher
amounts are possible with any thunderstorms.

Minimal rises are expected on the waterways. Dry weather
returns Monday afternoon into the midweek before another cold
front moves across the region for Wednesday into Thursday with
some scattered showers or thunderstorms.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Frugis wasula
near term... Wasula
short term... Frugis
long term... Cebulko
aviation... Mse 11 nas
fire weather... Frugis
hydrology... Frugis wasula


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 23 mi55 min 65°F 1015 hPa51°F
TKPN6 24 mi61 min SW 1.9 G 4.1 65°F 74°F49°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 85 mi55 min E 2.9 G 5.1 63°F 69°F1015.1 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 86 mi61 min NE 6 G 8.9 62°F 64°F1013.9 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pittsfield Municipal Airport, MA26 mi31 minN 010.00 miOvercast59°F46°F62%1013.1 hPa

Wind History from PSF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmNE5E43NE6E5535S9
G14
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3N54NW9NE3NW76NW7N6N6N3NE3NE4SE3NE4CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW44SW5S4SW63CalmCalmN3W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3N3

Tide / Current Tables for Coxsackie, Hudson River, New York
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Coxsackie
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:57 AM EDT     4.53 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:53 AM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:14 PM EDT     3.73 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:11 PM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.34.54.13.32.61.60.50.10.51.42.22.93.43.73.52.82.21.50.5-0.10.112.13

Tide / Current Tables for Hudson, Hudson River, New York
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Hudson
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Sat -- 12:00 AM EDT     4.54 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:38 AM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:18 PM EDT     3.88 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:53 PM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.54.33.62.82.11.20.60.51.122.83.53.93.83.32.51.81.10.40.20.71.72.83.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.