Thursday, June22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe Park, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 9:14PM Thursday June 22, 2017 2:22 PM EDT (18:22 UTC) Moonrise 3:49AMMoonset 6:34PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ422 934 pm edt Mon jun 19 2017 a marine weather statement has been issued for the following areas... St. Clair river... Lake st. Clair... At 933 pm edt...doppler radar indicated a strong Thunderstorm... Capable of producing winds to up 30 knots. This Thunderstorm was located over mt clemens harbor of refuge...moving east at 20 knots. Locations impacted include... Mt clemens harbor of refuge...metro beach metropark marina... Algonac...st clair flats old channel light...new baltimore and st. Clair shores. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes. && lat...lon 4267 8251 4262 8252 4255 8259 4255 8264 4246 8274 4247 8289 4258 8287 4259 8285 4266 8284 4272 8269 4270 8261 4265 8259 4264 8256 4275 8252 4276 8247
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ422 Expires:201706200215;;508156 FZUS73 KDTX 200134 MWSDTX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 934 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2017 LCZ422-460-200215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe Park city, MI
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location: 42.34, -82.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 221709
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
109 pm edt Thu jun 22 2017

Aviation
A cold front will be slowly tracking through lower michigan tonight
through tomorrow morning, helping to focus showers and thunderstorms.

Meanwhile, low level moisture from remnants of cindy will be drawn
into southeast michigan, leading to increased confidence ceilings
will lower into MVFR category later tonight. With the instability
build up during the day, and as low level moisture is advected
northward, scattered thunderstorms are possible late today into this
evening, but felt activity would be mainly northwest of southern taf
sites (dtw det yip). Higher chance toward 12z Friday with the actual
cold front.

For dtw... Warm front has lifted north, with good mixing this
afternoon allowing southwest winds to gust at or above 25 knots.

There is a low chance of thunderstorms very late today into this
evening, but left out of TAF as activity is expected to reside
mainly northwest. High confidence in CIGS dropping below 5000 feet
tonight, and likely dropping into MVFR with showers and possible
thunderstorms developing.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for thunderstorms impacting terminal through tomorrow morning.

* high confidence in ceilings AOB 5kft tonight into Friday morning.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1115 am edt Thu jun 22 2017
update...

as the warm front moves northward through the region, the main story
for the afternoon will be increasing heat and humidity over se
michigan. The remaining showers and residual clouds will decrease
during early afternoon and allow surface heating to ramp up through
the day as surface moisture lifts dewpoint to near 70f. Late
afternoon highs near 90 will then produce heat index reaching into
the mid 90s for a few hours during peak heating. This is below
headline criteria but will feel much different compared to the last
few days.

The afternoon temperature trends will unfold as the warm sector
associated with low pressure to our west builds strongly over lower
michigan. This is expected to inhibit convection initially as a cap
develops in the 850-800 mb layer which will leave in question
whether afternoon and evening storms will be able to form as shown in
many of the mesoscale and synoptic model solutions. The key here
will be if deeper low level moisture can arrive this far north from
the ohio tennessee valleys and help erode the cap. The 12z upper air
analysis does show 850 mb dewpoint in the upper teens available for
advection into the southern great lakes which would build potential
for at least scattered shower storm development late in the daytime
heating cycle.

Prev discussion...

issued at 347 am edt Thu jun 22 2017
discussion...

water vapor imagery paints a good picture of the major players
affecting the forecast over the next few days. Strong, nearly zonal,
jet over the canada us border is currently nosing into the northern
midwest with mature low pressure system crossing into manitoba tied
to the left exit region of said jet. A cold front tied to this low
is draped through the midwest southwest through west texas and new
mexico. The jet MAX will push the northern extent of the cold front
eastward through today and tonight while the southern portion,
already suffering from weak flow, runs up against tropical storm
cindy lifting further north up the mississippi. A second wave diving
into the developing mid level trough will propel the entire system
eastward tonight into Friday. Resulting longwave trough will then
reside over the great lakes through about the middle of next week
before ridging attempts to regain control of the region.

Temperatures will run below normal, in the 70s, through the duration
of the forecast with the exception coming today where highs approach
90 in many locations. Some 80s will linger on Friday ahead of the
cold front, but then the 70s take over. Precipitation chances will
exist through next week as fronts troughs rotate through the main
longwave trough. Timing these individual events will be the focus
through the coming days.

First issue with the forecast is the developing warm frontal
boundary being forced north on the nose of a strengthening 850mb low
level jet. Models have come down some with the winds speeds in this
jet, now maxing out around 40 knots for the most part. Also
narrowing the corridor of higher winds, tighter to the cold front
upstream away from SE mi. Convection is already firing over wi and
lake mi along the lead edge of the instability theta E gradient
draped southward through western lower mi. Models continue to
advertise convection expanding in coverage along the front as the
system bleeds eastward. Unfortunately most hires is struggling with
the convection early on, though the rap and some versions of the
hrrr are starting to latch on. Current placement of the convection,
and eastward propagation of system in general means the saginaw
valley stands the best chance of getting clipped by this band of
storms. Potential for development further south and east remains
low, but there is some light shower activity over northern il
showing there is a chance. Will continue likely definite pops north
with only a chance south with the best window from 09-14z before the
forcing lifts north and strong warm air advection caps the
atmosphere.

For the rest of today, though models consistently show MUCAPE around
1000-1500 j kg (all elevated) with about 30 knots of bulk shear,
weak ridging slides through with a cap extending from around 5-9kft,
and an overall lack of forcing aloft, see precipitation hard to come
by this afternoon so will go mostly dry. The one caveat to this is
bands of deeper moisture emanating northward out of TS cindy. This
could lead to some shower activity on the weak theta E gradient, but
models did trend slower further south with this feature so will hold
off on getting too excited about it.

We then turn our attention to the cold FROPA late tonight into
Friday morning. Strong PV filament rotating around the parent low
will send the front through SE mi around 16-20z. Pwats ranging from
1.5 to 2 inches will cover the region as the front slides through.

Warm mid levels and prefrontal trough crossing early in the morning
hurt its chances of producing much severe weather. Also the
strongest ll jet seems to refocus further east although there will
be a narrow channel of higher winds along the front. And upper level
forcing is lacking as the right entrance region of the jet and
strong PV filament lag behind the front.

Biggest threat with any storm will be heavy rainfall as atmosphere
becomes very moist with dewpoints well into the upper 60s and pwats
previously mentioned over 1.5 inches. Orientation of the front
largely west to east parallel to the flow will lend to some training
before the front becomes more progressive. Locations across mid mi
stand the best chance of seeing excessive rainfall. As for severe
weather potential, best chance will be late this evening ahead of
the cold front while CAPE and shear are at their highest. Strong
winds and large hail will be the primary threats. Additional chances
will exist along the cold front Friday morning as stronger winds
aloft and frontal forcing slide though. Best chances for both fronts
will occur mainly north of i69.

Marine...

southerly flow will gradually increase and veer to the southwest as
a warm front lifts north through lower michigan. Showers and a few
thunderstorms will be possible early this morning along this front,
mainly over portions of lake huron. Additional showers and storms
can be expected later today along this frontal boundary as moisture
and instability increase. Passing low pressure will force the front
southward late tonight into Friday with convection sinking south
with it. Winds will back to the west northwest and remain from that
general direction through the weekend. An unseasonably cold airmass
this weekend will bring the chance for light showers across most of
lake huron.

Hydrology...

showers and thunderstorms will be possible early this morning as a
warm front lifts through lower michigan, mainly along and north of
the i-69 corridor. Additional showers and thunderstorms can be
expected late today into tonight as an influx of moisture spreads
over the region in advance of an approaching low pressure system.

Initially, this activity will again focus over the northern forecast
area, but the passage of the low pressure late tonight will allow
the frontal boundary and associated convection to sag south through
the remainder of the area. Any lingering showers and thunderstorms
will sink south of the region Friday. All told, localized rainfall
amounts may reach an inch or more, especially from around flint on
north into the saginaw valley.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Sf
update... ... .Bt
discussion... Drk
marine... ... .Dg
hydrology... .Dg
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 10 mi83 min SW 8.9 G 19 79°F 1011.5 hPa (-1.7)
AGCM4 29 mi53 min 73°F 1011.1 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 38 mi43 min SSW 14 G 15 76°F
45165 47 mi33 min SW 12 G 16 79°F 71°F1 ft65°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 49 mi83 min SSW 9.9 G 12 75°F 1013.2 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI8 mi30 minWSW 12 G 1910.00 miFair84°F68°F59%1010.5 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI19 mi29 minSW 11 G 1910.00 miFair84°F64°F51%1011.5 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI20 mi30 minSSW 1210.00 miFair80°F70°F72%1011.2 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI20 mi85 minSSW 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F67°F58%1010.9 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI22 mi30 minSW 1510.00 miMostly Cloudy83°F68°F61%1011.2 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7CalmSE7SE10S7SE6S5S5S4S3CalmCalmSE3CalmS3S6SE6S7S9
G15
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1 day agoW12
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G24
W8W7W5W3W4W4W4W3W3NW3W3CalmNW5Calm3CalmN8SE74
2 days agoSW125W6SW9SW10SW11
G16
SW7SW9SW4E5SW3SW5W8W9W9W6W8W11W6W9
G20
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.