Sunrise 6:42 AM   Sunset 8:19 PM Moonrise 3:16 PM   Moonset 4:08 AM

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LCZ422 /o.exp.kdtx.ma.w.0003.000000t0000z-240417t2115z/ 505 Pm Edt Wed Apr 17 2024
.the special marine warning will expire at 515 pm edt - .
the affected areas were - . Lake st. Clair open lake (u.s. Portion) - . St. Clair river - .
the Thunderstorms have moved out of the area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
a severe Thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 700 pm edt for southeastern michigan - .the adjacent waters of lake huron - .and the adjacent waters of lake st. Clair.
&&
lat - .lon 4289 8247 4280 8248 4276 8247 4261 8252 4255 8259 4256 8264 4246 8274 4259 8285 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8261 4265 8259 4264 8256 4276 8251 4289 8252 4301 8247 4302 8243 4298 8241 time - .mot - .loc 2105z 242deg 52kt 4323 8228 4292 8200 4269 8178

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 191100 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 700 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain moves out this morning with mostly sunny skies returning for the afternoon. Breezy conditions with westerly gusts of 25 to 30 mph today.

- Cool and quiet weather this weekend with potential for some frost to develop Sunday morning.

- Next chance of showers and thunderstorms arrives Tuesday.

AVIATION

Pockets of MVFR to IFR will be possible the first hour of the forecast as low level saturation remains in the wake of the weak cold frontal passage. Efficient, steeply sloped isentropic descent will clear skies out between 15-21Z this afternoon. Deep boundary layer mixing is expected to result in northwest surface winds of 15 to 25 knots. Troughing and associated midlevel cooling will push into Southeast Michigan and lead to mid cloud and saturation this evening and overnight.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling aob 5000 ft through 12-14Z this morning.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 354 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

DISCUSSION...

Steady rain has spread over most of SE MI this morning in response to a mid-level wave ushering in moisture advection and ascent ahead of a cold front. Coverage of rain is currently near its peak and will move out to the east over the next several hours as the front pushes through. Radar estimates and observations upstream suggest most areas are on pace to receive a few tenths up to a half inch of rain. Morning clouds then clear out as the wake subsidence works in, with mostly sunny skies expected to return. Steady height falls ensue through the rest of the day as a closed mid-level low over Ontario expands south across the area. Cool advection sends 850mb temps to the negative single digits by midday with a deepening, well mixed boundary layer offering a breezy afternoon with gusts of 25 to 30 mph. Otherwise, dry and seasonable conditions with high temps in the mid to upper 50s.

A secondary dry cold front moves through tonight, reinforcing the cool advection through Saturday. This pattern likely prevents the boundary layer from fully decoupling tonight and the mixing should hold lows in the mid to upper 30s. Temps then rebound to the upper 40s to lower 50s on Saturday with similarly breezy but dry conditions through the day. An increase in clouds is expected with most guidance showing a shallow layer of 750-850mb moisture rotating around the Canadian low.

Chilly conditions are expected Saturday night into Sunday morning with weaker flow resulting from a ridge of high pressure building in across the Ohio Valley. This looks to allow lows to settle into the lower 30s outside of the urban footprint, so some frost may develop Sunday morning especially if clouds clear out. Weak warm advection and air mass modification then boost temps back into the mid 50s by the afternoon. Shortwave ridging passing overhead on Monday leads to another dry and mild day.

A pattern shift is taking shape for the mid-week period with the likely arrival of an amplified northern wave. Tuesday is currently favored for the passage of a cold front with NBM guidance offering 70+% PoPs and potential for some thunderstorms dependent on timing and placement of the instability axis. Another shot of cooler air works in behind this system with some concern for freezing temps as a surface anticyclone sets up overhead Wednesday night bringing favorable radiating conditions and potential for lows to dip into the upper 20s Thursday morning.

MARINE...

Cold front and associated showers clear the region late this morning ushering in cooler westerly flow as an upper trough settles over the Great Lakes. This pattern holds fairly constant through this weekend albeit with slight variability in wind direction ranging between west and northwest as a series of weak disturbances embedded within the trough slide across the northern Great Lakes/Ontario. Cooler airmass supports modestly unstable overlake thermal profiles maintaining more efficient mixing particularly during the daylight hours where peak winds can be expected. Strongest winds occur over northern Lake Huron with peak gusts in the 25-30kt range with 15- 25kt gusts instead favored over the rest of the region. Small craft advisories are in effect for the Saginaw Bay and tip of the Thumb nearshore waters from midday Friday through Saturday afternoon due to these moderate winds and subsequent rougher wave action.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EDT Saturday for LHZ421-422-441.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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