Thursday, November22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe Park, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:30AMSunset 5:06PM Thursday November 22, 2018 6:33 AM EST (11:33 UTC) Moonrise 5:10PMMoonset 6:31AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ422 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0041.000000t0000z-181017t1615z/ 1145 Am Edt Wed Oct 17 2018
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Harbor beach to port sanilac mi... Lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac 5nm off shore to us/canadian border... Lake huron from port sanilac to port huron 5nm off shore to us/canadian border... Port sanilac to port huron mi... St. Clair river... The showers have moved out of the warned area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters. However, waterspouts will continue to be possible the remainder of the day. Lat...lon 4357 8213 4300 8242 4297 8241 4295 8243 4300 8247 4322 8257 4362 8263 4364 8213 time...mot...loc 1432z 311deg 26kt 4287 8193
LCZ422 Expires:201810171554;;903658 FZUS73 KDTX 171545 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1145 AM EDT WED OCT 17 2018 LCZ422-LHZ442-443-463-464-171554-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe Park city, MI
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location: 42.34, -82.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 220921
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
421 am est Thu nov 22 2018

Discussion
Near term today through tonight
as of 420 am est... A cold early thanksgiving morning continues
across the region with unusually cold 850 hpa temps (less than -10c)
firmly entrenched over the central great lakes. Widespread surface
temperatures in the teens have been noted in regional observations,
with lower 20s readings detroit metro and points south. So far,
temperatures have not been as cold as anticipated, despite boundary
layer winds actually decoupling in quite a few areas. The issue has
been more associated with persistent mid clouds spilling over from
developing ridging in the northern plains. Still, a chilly start to
thanksgiving either way, with low temperatures still bottoming out in
the low to mid teens across a wide segment of southeast michigan.

Other big weather story for the thanksgiving holiday will be
occasional light to moderate lake effect snow showers that will
brush eastern sections of huron, sanilac, and st. Clair counties.

Lack of a deeper convective depth (only around 5 kft) coupled with
muted convergence in the wind field should limit any more
significant lake effect potential the remainder of tonight and
continuing through the mid morning hours, gradually lifting
northward with time as southeasterly flow develops. Looking at 1-2
inches of potential accumulation, with the highest totals closer to
the lake huron shoreline. As always with lake effect, there will be
the possibility for locally higher amounts if more persistent
convergence can develop later this morning (if it happens, most
likely along the sanilac shoreline). Across the rest of the region,
dry weather anticipated.

Mid clouds remain firmly in place today as surface high pressure
slides eastward into ontario and allows for more moisture to spill
over the ridge that will begin to push eastward in response to
longwave trough amplification over the western third of the conus.

Degree of low stratus likely to pick up as the day progresses as
well as the southeast flow advects increased moisture off lake erie.

With the plentiful cloud cover and continued resident thermal trough
in place, high temperatures will only make it into the mid upper 20s
for most areas, with detroit metro south the best chance at cracking
30. Increasing subsidence as the upper-level ridge axis approaches
tonight will allow skies to slowly clear out from southwest to
northeast. Developing low-level southwesterly flow, with surface
southeast flow, will result in increased moisture off lake michigan
in the lowest couple thousand feet, and with the midlevel subsidence
working in, will strip out midlevel moisture for a period of
potential freezing drizzle especially after midnight. Best shot at
seeing freezing drizzle will be in the tri-cities region, but it is
a non-zero probability that it could occur further southeast as
well. Any activity will lead to slippery roads with low temperatures
budging little from daytime highs and staying in the 20s.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
Friday will feature dry weather after any potential early morning
freezing drizzle concerns as the upper-level ridge axis moves
overhead and then exits east. Low-level return flow will allow for
milder air to work into the region as 850 hpa temps warm to around 4
c by Friday evening. This will allow for high temperatures Friday to
warm into the lower 40s with lows Friday night much warmer than
recent nights and only falling into the mid upper 30s.

Broad longwave troughing moves across the region Saturday and will
bring a period of widespread rain as temperature profiles remain
solidly above freezing. Not expecting a soaker by any means as
southeast michigan remains in between better forcing from the
northern and southern streams. High temperatures Saturday will be
slightly warmer despite rain chances, and reach into the mid upper
40s. Low temperatures Saturday night will fall into the 30s with
rain chances ending Saturday evening.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
a second, more potent low pressure system will impact the region
Sunday into Monday, with long range guidance coming into better
agreement with a near 990 hpa low tracking northeast over lower
michigan as the system begins to occlude. Still uncertainty with the
details of the synoptic evolution, which coupled with diurnal timing
considerations still make it messy in terms of rain vs. Snow.

Additional northern stream energy diving southeast from well north
in canada will reinforce deep troughing over the region through
early next week with a return to colder conditions and lake effect
potential.

Marine
High pressure moving out of the eastern great lakes today while low
pressure develops in the lee of the rockies places lake huron and
lower michigan marine areas under an increasing pressure gradient
heading into the weekend. A prolonged period of enhanced south wind
is the result tonight through Friday night. Expect south wind over
central lake huron will reach gusts around 35 knot gales for several
hours while colder air and deeper mixing occur over the water. A
gale warning is in effect to go along with a small craft advisory
tonight as the long south fetch builds waves in excess of 4 feet
along the thumb shoreline north of port sanilac. Enhanced south wind
continues through Friday and Friday night but warmer air is expected
to build stability over the water and add some uncertainty to gale
potential. A gale watch is in effect Friday night to highlight that
time period of peak gradient flow over the open waters. Warmer air
and stability are then reinforced by low pressure near western lake
superior Saturday. The approach of this system brings a pattern of
rain and decreased pressure gradient Saturday night into Sunday.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1149 pm est Wed nov 21 2018
aviation...

prevailing dry nne flow will sustainVFR conditions into the early
morning hours, with simply a thicker canopy of mid cloud. Winds will
gradually veer with time through Thursday. This directional change
will introduce the potential for moisture off lake huron to lift
into SE michigan. This westward push of moisture may prove rather
disorganized given the increasingly choatic and generally weakening
wind field. This will support simply a sct mention for some pockets
of MVFR stratus to enter the region Thursday morning. A greater
expansion of stratus will be possible Thursday afternoon evening as
winds settle to southeasterly, allowing moisture from lake erie to
expand northwest.

For dtw... Clear skies across the lowest 5000 ft into the early
morning hours. Pockets of stratus may emerge toward daybreak as flow
turns northeasterly and moisture potentially moves in from lake
huron.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceilings at or below 5,000 feet through Thursday morning.

Medium Thursday afternoon evening.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Gale warning from 10 pm this evening to 7 am est Friday for lhz362-
363-462.

Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 4 pm est Friday for
lhz421-441-442.

Gale watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for
lhz361>363.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Irl
marine... ... .Bt
aviation... ..Mr
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 10 mi33 min NNW 8 G 11 21°F 1033.9 hPa
AGCM4 29 mi33 min 19°F 43°F1033.2 hPa (+1.7)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 38 mi33 min NNE 9.9 G 12 24°F
TWCO1 47 mi23 min NE 8 G 13 27°F 1030.2 hPa15°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 49 mi33 min NE 5.1 G 8 25°F 1033.6 hPa (+1.5)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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N6
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--
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N3
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G7
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G12
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI8 mi40 minNNE 610.00 miOvercast21°F7°F54%1034.4 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI19 mi38 minENE 510.00 miOvercast22°F7°F53%1033.5 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI20 mi38 minN 510.00 miOvercast23°F11°F60%1032.8 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI20 mi97 minN 610.00 miOvercast20°F10°F67%1033.7 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI22 mi40 minN 510.00 miOvercast23°F8°F53%1034.1 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW9NW11
G18
NW9
G18
N12NW9N10N8NW9N11N12N12N12N15NE10N10N12N8NE11NE6N9N7--N4N6
1 day agoNW11
G17
NW9N9N8
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N8NW11
G17
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G16
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W7W6SW8SW7SW12SW12SW13
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W9W8
2 days agoCalmCalmSW6W4SW3SW6W7SW7SW5SW9SW6SW4SW4W4W5NW4W3NW4W3W4W4NW4NW4N12
G18

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.