Saturday, December16, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Chicago, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 4:21PM Saturday December 16, 2017 10:52 AM CST (16:52 UTC) Moonrise 6:29AMMoonset 4:38PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor-calumet Harbor To Gary- 902 Am Cst Sat Dec 16 2017
Rest of today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt easing to 5 to 10 kt mid day, and then shifting to east late. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 kt. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt. Slight chance of rain after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
LMZ740 Expires:201712162245;;980892 FZUS53 KLOT 161502 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 902 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>743-162245-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Chicago, IL
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location: 42.35, -87.79     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 161118
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
518 am cst Sat dec 16 2017

Short term
116 am cst
through tonight...

low pressure over the dakotas will move southeast to iowa this
afternoon before dissipating. A warm front currently stretches
southeast from this low across southern wisconsin. As the low
drops southeast to iowa, the warm front should reverse course and
begin to ooze south into northern il this afternoon. Differential
heating between the lake and land should result in a cooler denser
air mass over the lake, and while a true lake breeze may not form,
the lake may add a bit of an extra push to the front this
afternoon.

Cloudiness is likely to increase from the south overnight as
weakening southern stream shortwave lifts northeast toward the
region. No precip is expected tonight, however as cloudiness
increases look for temps to level off and likely begin to rebound
prior to dawn, especially southern cwa.

- izzi

Long term
324 am cst
Sunday through Friday...

the area will temporarily be in an above normal temperature regime
as the mid and upper pattern across north america reshuffles,
resulting in mainly positive mid-level height anomalies. An
exception to this will be a cold front trough passage Monday night
into Tuesday. Later in the work week, significant amplification
of poleward ridging up to and north of alaska will set the stage
for the likelihood of the return of a colder pattern to close the
week and heading toward christmas. A storm system of uncertain
magnitude, track and evolution from the plains toward the midwest
and great lakes will likely affect the region Thursday and Friday
and herald the return of the colder pattern. Accumulating snow
will be likely with this system in the greater region, but it's
still far too early to tell if these accumulations will fall
within the CWA and how much.

A weakening shearing positively tilted short-wave trough will
affect lift into the area on Sunday, with a shot of light rain
probable south of i-80. The cutoff in rain chances will likely be
sharper than in current grids, so expect refining of this, with
parts of the area likely to stay dry. The warm frontal boundary
expected to sag south into northern il today will likely lift and
stall just north of the CWA on Sunday. Given skies quickly
becoming overcast and also precip for parts of area, undercut
guidance high temperatures on Sunday to generally upper 30s to
around 40.

Sunday night will feature a weak gradient light flow regime,
likely without much if any dry advection. Anticipating skies to
remain overcast, with any breaks favored over far northern
illinois. The setup seems to be one favored for patchy fog
potential, so have added it to the grids into Monday morning, with
the better chance for any dense fog south of i-80 where higher
dew points will be. Furthermore, with broad ascent over the area,
but the column devoid of ice crystals due to dry air aloft, patchy
drizzle is possible. A consideration for this period is that the
nam WRF guidance is exhibiting typical low level moist bias, but
nonetheless, synoptically, patchy fog drizzle mention seems
reasonable.

On Monday, it's uncertain how long expected overcast will take to
scatter, and have leaned more pessimistic with the sky cover in
the grids. This could have some impact on high temperatures, but
with a mild start to the day well into the 30s most areas, highs
should still reach into the 40s for most locations except perhaps
far north. Southwest winds will increase during the afternoon
ahead of a cold front trailing from strong low pressure over
northern manitoba. The cold front will move across the area Monday
night into early Tuesday, with breezy west winds in its wake. The
models are still varying fairly significantly on the magnitude of
the colder air behind the front. With this being said, even the
colder solutions are not all that cold for december, so
temperatures have a good chance of reaching the 40s in many areas
and if the warmer models verify, more areas could approach or
exceed 50.

Tuesday night through Wednesday will be quiet and cooler under
surface high pressure ridging. Attention then turns to the low
pressure area over the plains. The mid upper pattern will be
complex with this setup, with none of the major players being
sampled by the RAOB network for the next few days. Thus expect
continued model ensemble variability until everything gets sorted
out. It's likely that some energy will dive into the southwest
conus and could get cut off. Enough looks to escape to form a
positively tilted trough over the region, as 250-300 mb jet
strengthens to nearly 150 kt by Friday. The surface low over the
high plains with an inverted trough extending toward iowa will be
followed on its heels by strong arctic high pressure spurred from
the west coast alaskan ridge amplification mentioned earlier.

This will serve to ooze a cold front toward the area on Thursday
while the surface low (more of an elongated trough on some
models) weakens and tracks over or south of the CWA Thursday night
into Friday. How this all evolves will determine if and how much
accumulating wintry precipitation occurs within the CWA into
Friday. The pattern does look to support a swath of accumulating
snow somewhere in the region. Thus, this could offer an
opportunity for at least parts of the CWA to enjoy a white
christmas, as colder than normal conditions return for christmas
weekend, maintaining any snow cover (if any) that is put down. For
now, have broad rain snow mention in forecast for Thursday into
Friday. Stay tuned.

Castro

Aviation
For the 12z tafs...

vfr conditions through this evening. Southwest winds will
ease a bit early this morning, but likely to maintain a south-
southwest direction through much of the afternoon, albeit fairly
light. Early in the evening, look for winds to flip to light
easterly and likely remain easterly Sunday night. Some potential
exists for some patchy fog to develop after midnight, mainly at
the more rural airfields.

- izzi

Marine
116 am cst
primary marine concern is with low pressure tracking across
central canada early-mid week. Initially, it will result in a
period of marginal southwest gales Monday night into early
Tuesday, especially northern portions of the lake. In the wake of
the front another period of gale or near gale force west-northwest
winds looks likely later Tuesday into Tuesday night in the wake of
the trailing cold front that will move across the lake early
Tuesday. Another storm system is likely to move across the region
late in the week, but still a lot of spread in the models
regarding the strength and track of this system resulting in lower
than average confidence in wind speed direction late in the week.

- izzi

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory... Gary to michigan city in until 9 am Saturday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 1 mi72 min SW 4.1 G 8.9 37°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 17 mi52 min E 1.9 G 4.1 38°F 1012.5 hPa (+2.0)
FSTI2 27 mi112 min SW 9.9 39°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 32 mi52 min SW 9.9 G 11 39°F 26°F
OKSI2 32 mi112 min W 4.1 40°F
CNII2 35 mi37 min SSW 8.9 G 9.9 39°F 24°F
JAKI2 41 mi112 min WSW 9.9 39°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 45 mi160 min SSW 9.9 G 14 34°F 1011.1 hPa26°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 48 mi42 min ENE 16 G 18 36°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL6 mi57 minVar 510.00 miPartly Cloudy39°F26°F60%1012.7 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL18 mi60 minSSW 810.00 miFair39°F26°F60%1013.2 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI18 mi59 minWSW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy39°F25°F57%1012.7 hPa

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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SW9SW9SW8SW6SW10SW7W3SW55
1 day agoNW6NW7NW7NW7NW5NW4CalmCalmSW33SW3CalmSW6SW4SW7SW7SW7SW7W5W9
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2 days agoS11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.