Wednesday, August23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Chicago, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:06AMSunset 7:40PM Wednesday August 23, 2017 3:20 AM CDT (08:20 UTC) Moonrise 8:05AMMoonset 8:57PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 307 Am Cdt Wed Aug 23 2017
Today..Northwest winds 15 to 20 kt becoming north in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..North winds 15 to 20 kt. Chance of waterspouts after midnight. Slight chance of showers after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft after midnight.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt. Chance of waterspouts in the morning. Chance of showers in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ740 Expires:201708231545;;814633 FZUS53 KLOT 230807 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 307 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-231545-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Chicago, IL
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location: 42.35, -87.79     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 230807
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
307 am cdt Wed aug 23 2017

Short term
307 am cdt
through Thursday...

the one noteworthy change with the short term forecast was to
mention a chance for lake effect showers (yes lake effect in
august!) into lake adjacent counties late tonight and Thursday
morning.

A cool morning to start this Wednesday, with far outlying
locations in the lower 50s. Just across the chicago metro area
alone temperatures range from 53 at arr to 67 downtown as of
3 am, and that range of difference is likely on several upcoming
nights. High pressure of 1018 mb will build eastward over the area
this afternoon. With just a bit of cold advection at the 850mb
level, low-level lapse rates will support at least scattered
cumulus. Based on upstream highs yesterday and climatology with
850 mb temperatures, highs should fall out in the mid 70s.

The strong upper trough across eastern canada and the great lakes
region will continue to move eastward tonight, with a backside
short wave impulse seen on upstream water vapor dropping southeast
over the area late tonight into Thursday morning. This will be
dampening some as it arrives, and by itself looks to at most
support patchy sprinkles. However, 850mb air temperatures dipping
to 6c over lake temperatures around 70 (21c) will support
convective clouds and potential for lake effect showers into
illinois and indiana lakeside counties. While moisture magnitude
for deep cloud depths is somewhat shallow, lake induced cape
values around 500 j kg will likely support some showers along a
forecast north-to-south convergent axis. How wide this is quite
uncertain. Also of note for those immediately along the shore is
rare august potential for waterspouts. While again moisture depth
is a bit shallow, there is a window late tonight into mid-morning
Thursday where lake-induced equilibrium levels are forecast to
top 20,000 ft. If the convergent axis is pronounced, the
conceptual pattern is there for low-level focus and stretching of
lake induced updrafts.

Drier air should advance in early Thursday afternoon. Have
continued to lean toward raw guidance, with highs likely climbing
no higher than 70 near the lakefront (and only that warm because
that is the water temperature), while a few degrees warmer
inland.

Mtf

Long term
307 am cdt
Thursday night through Tuesday...

Thursday night continues to look brisk for late august. Given this
morning's temperatures and what appears a more favorable cool
setup Thursday night, still see some outlying areas making a run
at mid 40s for daybreak Friday.

The eastern north america long wave trough heads east into the
weekend, with a weakness in the upper westerlies over the area
the rest of the week into the weekend. Global guidance is in
general agreement of a weak upper low inching its way eastward
from the upper mississippi valley during the weekend and
potentially providing some chance of showers Sunday-Tuesday. In
addition, what is expected to become tropical cyclone harvey in
the western gulf of mexico is hinted at by global guidance to
possibly further stall the pattern early to middle next week in
the eastern half of the country. Quite a bit of uncertainty, but
nothing screaming for large rain chances over our area, and
thunder potential looks low. Have forecast temperatures in the
extended about 5 degrees below normal.

Mtf

Aviation
For the 06z tafs...

only forecast concern is a possible lake breeze Wednesday
afternoon.

Under clear skies and with high pressure spreading across the
middle mississippi valley, the lower levels are decoupling from
winds aloft and sfc winds have diminished to nwly at 5-10kt for
the chicago area terminals and lgt vrbl for ncntrl il arnd rfd.

Northwesterly winds will increase through the morning and into
early tomorrow afternoon, with some gusts into the 15-20kt range
likely from mid morning to early afternoon. Wind speeds gusts
will begin to diminish during the mid late afternoon as high
pressure continues to spread east, weakening the pressure gradient
over nern il NRN in. A lake breeze is expected to develop... Moving
likely moving through gyy and mdw by mid late afternoon. Have
maintained the wind shift to nely at 00z at ord, but confidence
remains low on the chances for the lake breeze to move through
ord. In any case, winds will likely be less than 10 kt regardless
of direction. High pressure will continue to spread east tomorrow
night, keeping CIGS vis atVFR through the period, with light
winds tomorrow night.

Marine
216 pm cdt
north-northwesterly winds of 15 to 20 kt will continue down lake
michigan into Wednesday as a stout area of low pressure continues
to shift over northern quebec and a surface ridge of high pressure
builds over the upper midwest. With these winds, expect waves of 4
to 7 feet over southern lake michigan with hazardous conditions
for small craft into Wednesday for the indiana near shore waters.

Expect the winds over the lake to gradually abate for a short
period on Wednesday before another cold front shifts southward
down the lake Wednesday night night into Thursday morning. As this
front passes, expect a bit of resurgence in some of the northerly
winds over the lake for a period. A few showers, and possibly an
isolated water spout may also be possible over lake michigan
early Thursday morning with the frontal passage. However, with
time expect the surface ridge of high pressure to build eastward
over the lake late in the week and into the weekend. This will
result in a period of lighter winds, which should gradually become
southeasterly late in the period as another area of low pressure
takes shape over the upper midwest.

Kjb

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... Beach hazards statement... Inz001-inz002 until 4 pm Wednesday.

Lm... Small craft advisory... In nearshore waters until 4 pm Wednesday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 1 mi40 min WNW 8 G 12 64°F
45174 16 mi30 min WNW 14 G 18 67°F 73°F3 ft56°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 17 mi80 min W 9.9 G 14 62°F 1015.6 hPa (+0.7)
FSTI2 27 mi140 min W 8.9 65°F
OKSI2 32 mi140 min Calm 68°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 32 mi30 min WNW 16 G 17 68°F 52°F
45177 33 mi140 min 73°F
JAKI2 41 mi140 min WNW 2.9 67°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 45 mi50 min W 1.9 G 5.1 64°F 1015.5 hPa52°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 46 mi90 min NNW 16 G 19 69°F 71°F4 ft1014.5 hPa (+0.6)
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 48 mi30 min W 8.9 G 12 64°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Last
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SW7
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SW7
G11
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SE4

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL6 mi25 minWNW 310.00 miFair59°F52°F78%1015.1 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL18 mi28 minWNW 410.00 miFair62°F53°F73%1016.4 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI18 mi27 minW 510.00 miFair55°F51°F87%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr56W6SW65W8
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G16
NW43CalmCalmCalm3W4W3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalm36564CalmS7E4SE8S9S9SW12SW11
G18
SW6SW9SW9SW12SW11
G18
SW10SW11
G17
2 days agoCalmCalm3CalmS4S5S7S9S5E7E7SE7SE7SE7SE5E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.