Thursday, January17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Winthrop Town, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 4:40PM Thursday January 17, 2019 1:00 PM EST (18:00 UTC) Moonrise 2:23PMMoonset 4:13AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ230 Boston Harbor- 1058 Am Est Thu Jan 17 2019
This afternoon..N winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. Snow likely after midnight.
Fri..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. Snow in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft after midnight.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of snow in the afternoon.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 3 ft, building to 5 ft after midnight. Snow. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 5 ft, subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow in the morning, then rain, sleet with snow likely with freezing rain in the afternoon. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of snow in the evening.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1058 Am Est Thu Jan 17 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres builds across the waters today, then shifts E tonight. A wave of low pres lifts ne over southern new england on Fri bringing snow changing to rain, then is followed by dry high pres Fri night and Sat. A more potent low pres area will impact the waters Sat night and Sun, with the center of circulation passing along the south coast and cape canal vicinity. In the wake of the departing storm, arctic air spreads across the waters Sun night, Mon and Mon night on gusty nw gales with freezing spray likely. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winthrop Town, MA
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location: 42.37, -70.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 171744
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
1244 pm est Thu jan 17 2019

Synopsis
Quiet weather today under high pressure. One weather system
slips past southern new england Friday, bringing a period of
snow changing to rain Thursday night and Friday. All eyes are on
a second storm that brings a mix of wintry weather for Saturday
night and Sunday. Arctic air returns for early next week.

Another weather system may bring rain and snow next Wednesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
1240 pm update...

surface high pressure continues to shift to the east, and was
centered over southern quebec and eastern ny western new england as
of 17z. This high will continue its eastward progression as the
afternoon wears on, providing a period of tranquil weather and light
winds. We still look on track for highs mainly in the 20s. Some
mid and high deck clouds passing overhead. Looking at mostly
sunny skies for early this afternoon, with an onset of
increasing clouds as the afternoon wears on.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday
Thursday evening winds shift out of the east ahead of an
incoming warm front. As the high pressure moves offshore, a
shallow midlevel shortwave ushers a quick moving low pressure
south of the area which will bring light snow to the region
overnight. As the warm front approaches winds will turn out of
the south and snow starts over western ct and ma around 06z,
spreading east over the early morning hours. With low
temperatures in the teens and low 20s, we'll see light
accumulations of snow. Though light, it will have bad timing,
coming ahead of and during the Friday morning commute. Under a
split flow pattern, this shortwave does not have a good tap of
moisture with it, and models have been consistently backing off
on the QPF amounts with this system. Thus, snow amounts have
been lowered a bit this morning. Eventually this transitions to
rain for much of the coastal plain of ma and ri before precip
tapers off by late morning early afternoon. Currently looking at
snow totals of a half inch to an inch for most, with 1 to 2
inches possible in the high terrain of the interior. Take it
slow on the roads Friday morning as untreated surfaces will
become slick and hazardous. Temperatures warm into the upper 30s
and even the low 40s in coastal ma and ri, though there is
still some uncertainty on just how far north this warm air can
make it.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
17 00z guidance suite remains consistent with previous runs of
phasing mid level flow late this weekend. This phasing of the
northern and southern jet streams is expected to deepen a low
pressure as it passes by our region. Have high confidence in an
impactful storm for our region. However, the thermal profiles
will be absolutely critical, and continue to exhibit a rather
large spread. This is leading to low to moderate confidence in
the precipitation type details. Fully expect these forecast
details to evolve over the next couple of days.

17 00z GFS remains the warmest of the operational guidance, with
the canadian and ECMWF are quite a bit colder in the low levels.

00z NAM was closer to the ecmwf, but it was the very end of the
model cycle. Favored a slightly colder solution than the
operational gfs, as the operational run was towards the
northern end of its ensemble spread, but cannot dismiss it
entirely just yet.

Based on this, the forecast starts with snow everywhere
Saturday night, then brings rain into the south coast by
morning. Rain spreads up to boston and the north shore Sunday,
also across ri and much of northern ct. North of that zone will
be a band of sleet freezing rain across the interior, snow
continuing across parts of northwest ma. Shifts in the forecast
storm track will of course impact the location of these
precipitation bands, and also affect total accumulations of each.

Strong east winds will reach 35-50 mph speeds along the coast,
especially over CAPE cod and islands. Inland speeds will be more
like 25-35 mph.

Issued a winter storm watch for much of southern new england
due to the threat of significant snow and ice accumulation.

Sunday night-Monday
the storm should wind down during this time. Winds will quickly
shift out of the north and northwest. Strong pressure gradient
at the surface will generate strong sustained winds, and cold
advection will draw strong winds aloft down to the surface with
gusts of 25-40 mph possible. The combination of wind and cold
air will bring wind chills to single digits and below zero
Sunday night and Monday. It will also raise the possibility of a
flash freeze of any remaining wet surfaces.

Wednesday...

another weather system moves up the ohio valley, spreading rain
and snow into southern new england sometime Tuesday night into
Wednesday night. Details of this evening will come into better
focus with later forecasts.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday ... High confidence.

Thru 00z this evening...

vfr with increasing mid and high deck clouds. Light winds shift from
the N to the e-se.

Tonight...

vfr to start, then lowering CIGS after 06z, becoming MVFR with
localized ifr in -sn. E-se winds around or less than 10 kts for
most of the area.

Friday... Mainly MVFR with areas of ifr in -sn. Improving
conditions from W to E during the afternoon.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Friday night through Monday ...

Friday night:VFR. Breezy.

Saturday:VFR. Chance sn.

Saturday night: mainly ifr, with areas MVFR possible. Windy
with gusts to 35 kt. Wintry mix of sn and fzra.

Sunday: mainly ifr, with local MVFR possible. Strong winds with
local gusts to 40 kt. Wintry mix of sn, ra, fzra and pl.

Sunday night:VFR. Windy with gusts to 35 kt. Chance sn, slight
chance fzra.

Martin luther king jr day:VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt.

Slight chance shsn.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday ...

high pressure builds over new england today, bringing lighter
winds to the waters. The high then moves off to the east
tonight. This will bring quieter boating weather to the waters.

An approaching weather system will spread snow and rain over the
waters after midnight Thursday night, with reduced vsbys by
morning.

Outlook Friday night through Monday ...

Friday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of snow.

Saturday night: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Areas of rough seas. Snow changing to rain. Areas of
visibility 1 nm or less.

Sunday: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
45 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Rain. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Sunday night: strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas
up to 13 ft. Chance of snow and rain.

Martin luther king jr day: strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt.

Rough seas up to 12 ft. Chance of snow showers.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... Winter storm watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday
evening for ctz002>004.

Ma... Winter storm watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday
evening for maz002>019-026.

Ri... Winter storm watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday
evening for riz001>004.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Belk bw
near term... Nmb
short term... Bw
long term... Belk
aviation... Belk bw nmb
marine... Belk bw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 4 mi31 min 24°F 1028.5 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 18 mi71 min WNW 9.7 G 12 22°F 42°F2 ft1029 hPa (+0.7)3°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 24 mi117 min NW 9.7 G 16 20°F 42°F2 ft1028.9 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 45 mi37 min NNE 1.9 G 4.1 28°F 39°F1028 hPa
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 45 mi61 min WNW 14 G 16 20°F 1028.1 hPa (+0.0)-11°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 46 mi71 min NW 12 G 16 22°F 4 ft1029.1 hPa (+1.1)8°F
PVDR1 46 mi31 min NNW 1 G 5.1 29°F 1028.5 hPa-3°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 47 mi31 min ESE 1.9 G 2.9 27°F 1028.6 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 47 mi37 min 27°F 40°F1028.8 hPa
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 48 mi76 min W 6 22°F 1030 hPa-6°F
FRXM3 48 mi31 min 27°F -3°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 49 mi31 min N 6 G 8 30°F 40°F1028.5 hPa

Wind History for Providence, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA3 mi67 minNW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy26°F-8°F22%1028.8 hPa
East Milton, MA13 mi65 minVar 4 mi23°F-5°F29%1028.8 hPa
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA15 mi68 minVar 610.00 miFair24°F-6°F26%1028.2 hPa
Norwood, Norwood Memorial Airport, MA16 mi68 minWNW 610.00 miFair29°F-6°F21%1028.9 hPa
Laurence G Hanscom Field Airport, MA18 mi65 minNNW 510.00 miFair26°F-5°F25%1029.9 hPa

Wind History from BOS (wind in knots)
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1 day ago5W6NW7N7W10NW6N64CalmCalmSW4SW5S6SW6SW7SW9SW8SW9SW8SW9SW8SW13SW13W11
2 days agoN11N6E6E4CalmCalmN4N3N5NW6NW6NW8NW8--NW7NW8W7NW10NW8NW11NW11NW8
G16
NW8N5

Tide / Current Tables for Belle Isle Inlet entrance, Boston Harbor, Massachusetts
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Belle Isle Inlet entrance
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Thu -- 01:22 AM EST     1.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:13 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:40 AM EST     9.99 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:23 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:04 PM EST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:38 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:17 PM EST     8.87 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.21.11.32.74.66.68.49.79.997.25.12.91.10.30.92.44.26.27.98.88.67.35.6

Tide / Current Tables for Boston Harbor, Massachusetts Current
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Boston Harbor
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:17 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:12 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:29 AM EST     1.23 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:03 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:41 AM EST     -1.18 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:23 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:52 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:08 PM EST     1.17 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:38 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:35 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:02 PM EST     -1.07 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.8-0.30.71.21.21.10.70-0.6-0.9-1.1-1.2-1.1-0.80.10.91.21.110.4-0.3-0.7-1-1.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.