Sunday, May20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Plymouth, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 8:55PM Sunday May 20, 2018 1:55 PM EDT (17:55 UTC) Moonrise 10:21AMMoonset 12:18AM Illumination 33% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 548 Pm Edt Sat May 19 2018
.thunderstorms approaching lake erie shoreline and lower detroit river... The areas affected include... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... At 546 pm edt...doppler radar indicated Thunderstorms located along a line extending from 7 nm northwest of Monroe harbor to 10 nm west of north cape...moving east at 20 knots. The activity will be capable of wind gusts near 30 knots and heavy rainfall. Thunderstorms will be near... North cape, detroit river light and luna pier around 620 pm edt. Gibraltar around 625 pm edt. Bolles harbor of refuge around 630 pm edt. Monroe harbor around 635 pm edt. Other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include gibraltar. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4176 8348 4180 8344 4180 8341 4182 8343 4188 8336 4189 8338 4189 8334 4194 8331 4192 8327 4197 8325 4202 8318 4208 8320 4210 8313 4203 8315 4196 8311 4172 8341 4172 8347
LCZ423 Expires:201805192245;;218441 FZUS73 KDTX 192148 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 548 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2018 LCZ423-LEZ444-192245-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Plymouth, MI
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location: 42.37, -83.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 201717
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
117 pm edt Sun may 20 2018

Aviation
Persistent MVFR clouds will maintain through the balance of the
afternoon. The near surface layers will slowly dry from north to
south late this afternoon into the evening hours - lifting and
breaking ceilings somewhat. The greatest thinning of clouds will be
observed at the northern terminals. North flow will veer to
northeast and hold through the night, before becoming more easterly
Monday morning. Ongoing scattered showers will continue to dissipate
as they approach the terminals this afternoon. Will maintain a
vicinity mention for the first few hours. An area of light rain is
expected to advance northeast across southeast michigan starting mid-
morning Monday. There will likely be a break in the rainfall during
the late afternoon.

For dtw... Ceilings will remain below 5kft through the afternoon into
the early evening. Ceilings may dip below 5kft once again toward
midday Monday into Monday afternoon.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* high for cigs AOB 5000 ft today, medium this evening and again
Monday midday.

Prev discussion
Issued at 953 am edt Sun may 20 2018
update...

as of 950 am edt... Continue to monitor upstream showers coming off
lake michigan into western lower michigan early this morning, aided
by an embedded shortwave ejecting out of illinois wisconsin and
remnant midlevel post-frontal forcing behind the cold front that
exited last night. Observed 12z kdtx sounding revealed some drying in
the midlevels, but still enough ample moisture that this shower
activity should continue to make eastward progress into southeast
michigan, albeit mainly west of us 23 i-75. This solution is favored
by much of the hi- res guidance, including consensus blends as well,
so have reintroduced slight chance chance pops into the areas
mentioned above for light shower potential late this morning and into
the first half of the afternoon.

The sounding also revealed a sharp low-level capping inversion, with
plenty of remnant boundary layer moisture trapped beneath. Coupled
with cooler air filtering in from the north, low stratus will
continue to entrench much of southeast michigan through the remainder
of the day. Despite diurnal heating lifting the cloud deck slightly
as the day progresses, temperatures will have a hard time
responding, only warming into the 60s for inland areas and 50s along
the lake huron coastline. If some more persistent breaks in cloud
cover occur late this afternoon, some inland locations will have a
shot at 70 degrees.

Prev discussion...

issued at 302 am edt Sun may 20 2018
discussion...

an elongated region of sfc high pressure will expand from northern
minnesota lake superior this morning into northern lower mi this
afternoon within mid level confluent flow across the northern lakes.

There has already been a push of shallow cool air across SE mi
within the low level north-northwest flow preceding the sfc ridge
axis. This shallow cool layer has led to a deepening low level
inversion, supporting ample low clouds and fairly widespread
drizzle. Persistent low level northerly flow this morning will
advect drier boundary layer across SE mi, this will end the drizzle
from north to south across the area during the early morning hours.

The cluster of showers thunderstorms across SW wisconsin overnight
have struggled to to make much progress to the east. There will be a
push of lower mid level theta E air across SRN mi from the north
today which will hold any semblance of elevated instability well to
the south and west of the area. There will also be subtle mid level
height rises across lower mi through the day. These factors will
make it unlikely for ongoing convective activity across SRN wi to
advance into SE mi. While low clouds will tend to diminish from
north to south across the area during the course of the day, the
shallow cool air will limit mixing depths and likely hold afternoon
highs mainly in the 60s, with much cooler readings along the lake
huron shoreline.

The sfc high will build into SE mi tonight. Mid high level clouds
will likely inhibit radiational cooling potential across the
southern half of the forecast area. The likelihood for clearing skies
across the saginaw valley and thumb combined with the dry airmass
will warrant min temps into the low 40s (with some upper 30s
possible across the thumb).

There is a fair amount of model divergence with respect to timing
and amplitude of short wave impulses lifting out of the upper
midwest and traversing SRN mi Monday into Tuesday. This will affect
the strength of mid level southwest flow which in turn will
determine the degree of mid level moisture instability advection
into SE mi. In light of the confluent flow overhead, preference lies
with those solutions which dampen the upper energy more
significantly, thereby only supporting just low chances of
convection (mainly south of m-59). High pressure will strengthen
across the great lakes midweek behind an amplifying mid level trough
over eastern canada, supporting dry conditions across SE mi. Mid
level ridging will then expand across the great lakes toward the end
of the week, leading to a steady warming trend.

Marine...

light winds today as high pressure builds into the area. Light winds
will persist through at least Wednesday, as high pressure more or
less holds over lake huron. Chance of showers and thunderstorms
early next week will be mainly confined to lake st. Clair and lake
erie.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Mann
update... ... .Jvc
discussion... Sc
marine... ... .Sf
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 33 mi55 min N 8 G 11 58°F 1022.4 hPa (+2.1)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 47 mi55 min ENE 5.1 G 7 60°F 1021.5 hPa (+1.6)55°F
45165 48 mi35 min NNE 7.8 G 7.8 59°F 61°F1 ft55°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI10 mi62 minVar 310.00 miOvercast65°F55°F70%1021.3 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI13 mi62 minNNE 610.00 miOvercast63°F54°F73%1021.5 hPa
Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Municipal Airport, MI17 mi62 minNW 510.00 miOvercast62°F55°F80%1021.6 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI20 mi60 minN 710.00 miOvercast59°F54°F84%1022.7 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI21 mi62 minN 610.00 miOvercast57°F53°F87%1021.8 hPa

Wind History from YIP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS7S8SW8W7W10W10W6W8W9NW10W11NW7NW6NW7NW7NW7N8N8
G25
NW6NW11
G21
NW5Calm3
1 day agoE14NE18E10E17E11E11E14
G21
E17E13E14E12E9E9NE6E6E7E6E4E5E5SE7S7S8S6
2 days agoE9E9E10NE10NE13NE13NE12NE14NE14NE12NE13NE8NE8NE7NE10NE6NE8NE10NE9E11E11E11NE16E14

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.