Saturday, December16, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Plymouth, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:55AMSunset 5:04PM Saturday December 16, 2017 7:14 PM EST (00:14 UTC) Moonrise 6:12AMMoonset 4:21PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0053.000000t0000z-171008t0415z/ 1125 Pm Edt Sat Oct 7 2017
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie from detroit river to north cape mi... The Thunderstorms have moved out and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4185 8345 4235 8304 4237 8299 4236 8293 4231 8307 4224 8313 4216 8313 4203 8315 4196 8311 4177 8336 time...mot...loc 0324z 222deg 57kt 4256 8295 4227 8289 4208 8292
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 Expires:201710080334;;532427 FZUS73 KDTX 080325 MWSDTX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1125 PM EDT SAT OCT 7 2017 LCZ423-LEZ444-080334-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Plymouth, MI
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location: 42.37, -83.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 162338
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
638 pm est Sat dec 16 2017

Aviation
A weak frontal boundary has become stationary over southeastern
michigan this evening. Observationally, low level clouds have
cleared out south of metro detroit, while MVFR stratus holds strong
north of the frontal boundary which is along the I 94 corridor. The
cause of the clearing is the far southern forecast area has been
influenced by greater low-midlevel ridging and anticyclonic flow
trajectories. The forecast is a difficult one for clouds as the
frontal boundary is forecasted to move very little over the next 24
hours. There are three narratives the forecast will be based on. 1.

Preference is to keep a prevailing MVFR cig height throughout the
period out of respect for this frontal boundary. Relying on the edge
of the MVFR to creep back southward tonight as the midlevel high
pressure center rolls to pa by morning. 2. Will be leaving all
freezing drizzle fog out of the forecast tonight and Sunday morning.

Justification for this is lack of upstream observations persistence
and there little significant low level moisture advection during this
time. 3. Introduced ifr and fog at the TAF sites at the end of the
period. A surge of moisture is forecasted to reach southern lower
michigan after 00z Monday as a cyclonic circulation center lifts out
of portion of mo and directly into southern lower michigan.

For dtw... Still expecting the front to drift back southward tonight
in response to high pressure pushing east of the CWA center. This is
expected to lead to an expansion of MVFR stratus. Little
observational support for any fog or drizzle precludes a mention in
negligible low level moisture advection setup. The potential for
drizzle and fog will exist with the frontal boundary in vicinity of
the airfield, better potential appears later Sunday.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less tonight through Sunday.

* very low for freezing drizzle precip type tonight through Sunday
morning.

Prev discussion
Issued at 343 pm est Sat dec 16 2017
discussion...

southeast michigan will be under the influence of NW to W flow at
mid and upper levels today as the low pressure system that brought
snow showers yesterday through this morning departs to the east.

With it will go a lot of large scale ascent that would provide any
greater chances for substantial precipitation. This could be noted
in the gradual weakening trend from west to east on radar earlier
this afternoon. A stalled frontal boundary will linger around the
southern michigan state line today with light easterly surface flow
north of the boundary associated with a high pressure system moving
across the northern great lakes. This is also leading to a
temperature gradient with slightly above freezing to the south of
this boundary this afternoon and 20s to the north. There is good
boundary layer moisture present, so some weak moist isentropic
ascent under w-sw flow in the lowest levels could contribute to some
snow flurries throughout the day. This SW flow is also leading to
some warm air advection aloft, which will likely lead to the loss of
ice nucleation with temperatures warming above -8c within the
saturated column. This will result in a tricky part of this forecast,
which is the potential for freezing drizzle to develop along and
just north of the boundary later this afternoon and early evening
where surface temperatures remain below freezing. Chances this
afternoon and evening remain very low and current trends do not look
to support any development, but the presence of the boundary
lingering around keeps a non zero chance of freezing drizzle. The
most likely locations for potential freezing drizzle would be within
the i-94 corridor and south given location of the boundary. Since
little impact is expected if enough local forcing occurs to squeeze
out precipitation, will leave out mention of any in the grids.

A southern stream shortwave ejecting out of the southern plains and
shearing out as it nears michigan will bring continued chances for
precipitation along the boundary as it lifts north tomorrow. Forcing
along this front remains fairly weak and is lacking any deep
moisture above boundary layer. This will lead to a potential for
more light snow showers, flurries and patchy freezing drizzle again
through the morning and early afternoon. Little accumulation is
expected with this round as well. The warm air advection will help
bring surface high temperatures up to lower to mid 30s tomorrow.

More moisture will arrive along with attendant PV clipping the area
keeping precipitation chances in the forecast for tomorrow evening.

The warmer thermal profiles should result in mainly liquid
precipitation, though some snow flakes may mixed in cannot be ruled
out completely.

The pattern becomes less amplified for Monday and the passing wave
will help push some of the colder air out briefly allowing
temperatures to reach well above freezing for the entire area.

Potential for locations south of i-96 to reach into the low 40s and
and upper 30s to the north into the thumb and tri-cities. Low end
chances for precipitation will remain across much of southeast
michigan for Monday, but conditions look to be rather tame compared
to the last several days.

Benign, albeit breezy, weather expected Tuesday, and highs will
reach a few degrees above normal - high 30s north, low 40s south -
before cold frontal passage occurs in the late afternoon evening.

The parent low pressure system will be located well to the north
over hudson bay where the best forcing and moisture convergence will
remain; not much more than a subtle shift in the wind from SW to w
or wnw and a decrease in temperatures expected with the front. Lows
Wednesday morning will round out in the low-mid 20s. Another quiet
day Wednesday as surface ridge traverses across the great lakes.

Highs will reach the low 30s around SE michigan in the cooler
airmass.

The second half of next week will be impacted by a low pressure
system that will develop over the central plains and push
northeastward starting on Thursday. The warm front will lift through
se michigan during the afternoon and lead to a chance of showers
that will increase in likelihood and coverage overnight as the low
pressure center approaches. Precipitation type forecast confidence
is still low as models continue to diverge on placement and timing
of the low. If the low passes to the north, a rain to snow evolution
will be most likely, but if the low passes over ohio, we will stay
on the cold side and an all-snow solution is more likely.

Regardless, widespread precipitation is expected Friday. Another
cold airmass will settle into the region for next weekend in the
wake of this system.

Marine...

generally favorable marine conditions will continue tonight through
Monday in terms of wind and waves. A weak front moving south of the
michigan border tonight will return back northward during Sunday as
weak low pressure moves through the central great lakes. This system
will bring a light rain and snow mix to marine areas Sunday and
Sunday night before giving way to a larger and stronger low pressure
system early next week. The potential for westerly gales is
beginning to show with this system by Tuesday.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Cb
discussion... Aa tf
marine... ... .Bt
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 33 mi75 min NE 9.9 G 13 27°F 1019.6 hPa (+2.7)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 41 mi35 min ENE 16 G 18 29°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 47 mi45 min NE 6 G 9.9 29°F 1018.7 hPa25°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Last
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SE11
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI10 mi22 minENE 710.00 miOvercast29°F23°F78%1020.2 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI13 mi22 minENE 68.00 miOvercast30°F23°F75%1020.5 hPa
Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Municipal Airport, MI17 mi22 minNE 610.00 miOvercast27°F21°F81%1020 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI20 mi20 minENE 710.00 miOvercast27°F22°F84%1020.7 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI21 mi22 minENE 710.00 miOvercast25°F21°F85%1020.4 hPa

Wind History from YIP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW10SW11SW10SW6SW8SW13SW15SW13SW12SW13SW10SW11SW8SW8SW7SW4Calm--NE10E9NE7NE9E9E7
1 day agoS3SW5SW5SW5S6SW6SW6SW7S8SW7SW8SW8S9S9SW9SW13SW18
G22
SW16SW14W14W10W15W12W14
2 days agoE7NE9NE12N17N12N10N13NW12NW10
G18
NW12NW13NW10NW9NW8NW9NW7NW4NW7NW6NW8N7CalmCalmSW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.