Sunrise 6:45 AM   Sunset 8:20 PM Moonrise 2:16 PM   Moonset 3:50 AM

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LCZ423 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0001.000000t0000z-240417t2030z/ 418 Pm Edt Wed Apr 17 2024
.the special marine warning is cancelled - .
the affected areas were - . Detroit river - .
the Thunderstorms have moved out of the area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
a severe Thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 700 pm edt for the adjacent waters of lake st. Clair.
&&
lat - .lon 4202 8316 4202 8319 4204 8325 4226 8317 4233 8311 4238 8295 4241 8293 4238 8292 4235 8293 4232 8307 4229 8310 4224 8313 4217 8313 4212 8312 4205 8315 4201 8314 time - .mot - .loc 2017z 260deg 45kt 4254 8270 4237 8259 4218 8258

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 181049 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 649 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry today with showers moving in late this evening along a cold front. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out.

- Showers exit Friday morning with drier and cooler weather heading into the weekend.

AVIATION

MVFR to lower VFR ceilings will clear out this morning, leaving some degree of cirrus this afternoon into evening. Additional MVFR cigs will arrive overnight tonight as an area of showers accompany a cold front. Some potential for IFR as well. Winds will vary considerably this forecast backing from WSW this morning to S this afternoon to E tonight and then WNW late as the cold front cross the area. While a rumble of thunderstorm is not out of the question, low probability does not warrant a mention in forecast as instability is marginal at best.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* High for ceiling aob 5000 ft through this morning, then high again after 04z-06z tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 340 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

DISCUSSION...

Brief window of ridge amplification occurs across the Great Lakes today, in between the shearing upper low to our northeast and an expansive stacked low that is located to our west over central Canada. Increasing cyclonic influence of the inbound low leads to a quick return of warm advection to support highs today in the mid to upper 60s. Wrap around moisture on the western flank of the departing system has slowly blanketed the cwa with a low stratus deck that will linger this morning. There is increasing support for a window of at least partial clearing this afternoon for the southern half of the cwa, but upstream lee cyclogenesis and return flow quickly advect the next round of moisture aloft.

A stray shower or two will be possible as early as this afternoon across the Tri Cities and Thumb as a 700mb wind maximum around 50 knots initiates strong theta-e advection immediately following the ridge axis. Standard lag in low level moisture advection affords low coverage of any shower activity, favoring broader coverage of virga and cloud cover until low level moisture transport ramps up late this evening. Forcing will be maximized invof a lengthy baroclinic zone/cold front that originates from the Canadian low and extends into the Texas panhandle, so expecting a broken line of showers and embedded thunderstorms to track through between roughly 03z-12z (11pm-8am local). The cyclogenesis mentioned above yields a surface low that will track northeast along the boundary, which effectively keeps the warm sector and instability axis well south of the state line. Elevated thunderstorms do remain possible however, with mean HRRR MUCAPE of 100-250 J/kg (some CAMs up to 500 J/kg), but severe weather is not expected. Progressive nature of this system keeps widespread QPF totals between a quarter to localized half inch by Friday morning.

This cold front will draw in a notably colder and drier airmass Friday morning, evident as H8 temperatures drop below zero which locks daytime highs Friday-Sunday in the 50s, just a few degrees below climatology. Will see a gradual eastward drift to the governing Canadian low through the weekend which will maintain elevated boundary layer winds to support breezy conditions both Friday and Saturday. Otherwise, benign conditions expected through the weekend as high pressure expands across the eastern half of CONUS. Ensemble mean 500mb height anomalies give a strong signal for the upper low to stall over Hudson Bay early next week, with deterministic runs consistently steering a glancing shortwave toward the Great Lakes Tuesday.

MARINE...

A brief period of ridging expands over the central Great Lakes keeping westerly winds and subsequent waves to a minimum throughout today. Another cold front sags through the region late tonight into the first half of Friday bringing another shot at widespread showers as well as a slight chance for a couple non-severe thunderstorms over the southern Great Lakes. Upper level troughing settles over the Great Lakes following the frontal passage and will hold overhead through Sunday. Main impact is cooler air spilling back south creating a more favorable overlake thermal environment to support moderate west turning northwesterly winds through this weekend. Peak winds look to occur daytime Saturday though holding sub-gales instead topping out around 30kts over northern Lake Huron- 20-25kt gusts favored over the rest of the region.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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