Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Waukegan, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 4:54PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 2:58 AM CST (08:58 UTC) Moonrise 9:11PMMoonset 10:06AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 852 Pm Cst Tue Jan 22 2019
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming east toward daybreak. Rain and snow. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Rain and snow likely. Freezing spray in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Wednesday night..West winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft after midnight.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 20 kt becoming northwest 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Freezing spray in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon. A small craft advisory will likely be needed.
LMZ740 Expires:201901231015;;778477 FZUS53 KLOT 230252 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 852 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-231015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Waukegan, IL
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location: 42.37, -87.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 230524
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
1124 pm cst Tue jan 22 2019

Update
856 pm cst
no big changes to going forecast planned this evening, just a bit
of fine tuning to temps and precip type. Currently, the rain-snow
line is fairly closely aligned with i-80 with little in the way
of freezing rain remaining. Continued warm air advection for the
next few hours will probably result in the rain-snow line lifting
a bit farther north, especially across NE il. Despite the brief
respite in precip, the winter storm warning area still looks on
track to get another 3-6" of snow overnight with temps expected to
remain plenty cold enough to accumulate.

Regarding headlines...

group of counties set to expire in a few minutes looks reasonable.

Kendall, northern lasalle, and northwestern will should continue
to see snow for a bit longer, but with temps now inching up just
above freezing, accumulations shouldn't get out of hand despite
the briefly heavier bursts of snow occurring. Should be able to
allow cook and dupage to expire as scheduled at midnight as well
as rain snow line inches north and temps climb a couple degrees
above freezing ending the meaningful accumulation risk.

Updated grids texts products will be out shortly.

- izzi

Short term
309 pm cst
through Wednesday...

the primary message continues to be the likelihood of slick
roadways... Especially those untreated... Due to increasing
precipitation amounts in sub-freezing air during this evening's
commute spreading from west to east. For north of i-80, some of
this will likely mix with snow, especially along north of i-88.

The main changes to the headline were to expand the winter storm
warning to include mchenry county due to slightly higher snowfall
amounts, as well as extend some of the northern headline times
through all of Wednesday morning.

The anticipated uptick in precipitation has been unfolding
upstream this afternoon and is now moving east-northeast into
north central illinois. This is being forced by increasing deep
layer ascent in tandem with the nose of a 55 kt low-level jet,
with maximized moisture convergence. This will expand over the
by 5 pm with observational trends keying in on i-80 to i-88
having some of the higher amounts, and this is supported by
several high-resolution models. Surface temperatures have inched
their way up, with the 32 isotherm near i-80. This should continue
to inch its way northward into the evening, though heavy
precipitation rates may stunt that somewhat. The surface wet bulb
values will also continue to gradually increase but pavement
temperatures may lag, and a couple reports of pavement
temperatures thus far have shown that. Also have seen a couple
sites to our south (e.G. Pia) report freezing rain despite a 33
degree temperature.

So through mid-evening expecting freezing rain across a good part
of the central CWA with a mix of freezing rain and snow north.

Again for impacts on roads it should heavily depend on road
treatment effectiveness and temperatures around freezing should
help that. But certainly there will be slick untreated roads and
sidewalks, and for treated roads the rain rates may be enough to
overcome. With the deeper saturation through the dendritic growth
zone, the potential for accumulating snow increases across the
northern CWA as well.

The 1008 mb surface low in southwest missouri will slowly be
forced northeast this evening, with pressure falls indicating a
slightly more south track than some of the global guidance, and
the rap model is indicating that as well. Temperatures above
freezing should inch their way up to the inverted trough wind
shift ahead of this low. North of there is where temperatures will
likely remain subfreezing and snow is more favored, possibly
heavy at times as the developing system deformation moves overhead
after midnight. It's a challenge to say precisely where that
division will be, and have gone close to a dixon to dekalb to
northern suburb line. With still warm advection aloft, a narrow
zone of steady freezing precipitation may continue late evening
into overnight as well, and that's favored near that line. As for
south of that axis, precipitation overnight looks to be more so
rain. If this looks to be further south into chicago, the advisory
will need to be extended overnight and likely into Wednesday
morning.

Due to slower observational trends and guidance catching up on
this, the forecast for Wednesday morning has trended more
pessimistic with longer lasting precipitation, mainly in the form
of snow. Some of this still could be moderate in intensity especially
over the northern cwa. So some impacts to the morning commute are
likely in these areas and the headlines now cover that. For the
city of chicago, it will be close, and at least a period of light
snow is likely, but it may not be until mid morning and just a
glancing blow as the system pulls out. Temperatures will be
dropping during the day Wednesday on gusty northwest winds behind
the system.

Mtf

Long term
217 pm cst
Wednesday night through Tuesday...

the active weather pattern will continue into next week with a roller
coaster of temperatures and a number of opportunities for snow
and maybe mixed precipitation. The current system will be departing
Wednesday night but another upper trough axis will swing across
the area with a sharp cold front accompanying it. Expect winds to
shift from southwest to northwest and become gusty during the day
Thursday with much colder air spreading in as well. Temps will
fall through the day starting in the low to mid 20s and ending up
from the upper single digits in the west to upper teens east by
late afternoon. Temps will further fall with lows in the
-10 to -15 range in the northwest to 0 to -5 in the east by Friday
morning. Gusty winds will continue Thursday evening but ease up
into Friday morning though a lighter but steady wind should
continue Friday with high pressure passing to the southwest. Will
likely need at least a wind chill advisory for the area starting
some time Thursday evening through Friday morning and warning
criteria is possible in the northwest. Also expect the first in a
series of clippers to affect the region Friday. Track is not clear
at this point but at least the southern half of the area looks to
see some snow from this and will need to see if things shift
north a bit or not giving the rest of the area a decent chance for
snow. Expect high snow ratios but limited moisture so some light
accumulation would be possible. Friday will likely be the coldest
day with northern areas struggling to top 0 and southern areas
closer to 10 degrees.

The parade of clippers will continue with one expected Saturday
night Sunday morning and Sunday night Monday. The track of these
types of systems tends to fluctuate quite a bit in the guidance in
the days leading up to arrival so it is tough to say how much of
the area will be impacted by each at this point. While Saturday
will still be very cold, each clipper will bring a slight
moderation of temperatures with it as the core of coldest air
retreats bringing highs back into the 20s and even lower 30s
south. The Monday system has signs of being stronger as the upper
flow pattern over north america will be amplifying once again.

Enough warm air could be drawn into the local area resulting in
mixed precipitation potential but it is way too early for
specifics. The amplifying of the upper flow would lead to a return
of bitterly cold air for a time mid next week behind the system,
potentially colder than what is expected at the end of this week.

Mdb

Aviation
For the 06z tafs...

rain snow line is expected to meander around the chicago terminals
overnight, drifting north for a time overnight, then quickly
crashing back southeast Wednesday morning as colder air filters
in. Precise timing of the various switch overs between rain,
rain snow, and snow is difficult at ord mdw dpa. Rfd will likely
remain all snow with snow continuing through the overnight hours.

There is a chance that precip could briefly change back over to
light snow before ending Wed morning in the chicago area, but if
that were to happen, not expecting much, if any, accumulation. Ifr
conditions should prevail through the night with periodic lifr
possible. Winds will become light variable later tonight as low
pressure passes nearby, then northwest winds will develop
Wednesday. The northwest winds will increase and become gusty
which should help to usher in some slightly drier air which will
aid in improving CIGS vsby.

- izzi

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... Winter storm warning... Ilz003-ilz004-ilz005-ilz008 until noon
Wednesday.

Winter weather advisory... Ilz006-ilz010-ilz011-ilz012 until noon
Wednesday.

Winter weather advisory... Ilz013-ilz014 until midnight Wednesday.

In... None.

Lm... None.

Visit us at http: weather.Gov chicago (all lowercase)
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 1 mi58 min NNE 8.9 G 17 31°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 15 mi58 min N 16 G 18 29°F 1011.2 hPa (-1.0)
FSTI2 28 mi118 min ENE 5.1 34°F
CNII2 37 mi28 min E 1.9 G 4.1 33°F 31°F
JAKI2 42 mi118 min SSW 1.9 G 2.9 37°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 46 mi58 min S 5.1 G 6 36°F 1009.4 hPa (-2.2)36°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL5 mi64 minNNE 62.50 miFog/Mist30°F28°F96%1011.9 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI17 mi66 minNNE 62.50 miLight Snow Fog/Mist29°F27°F92%1012.2 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL19 mi67 minNNE 32.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist34°F30°F89%1010.9 hPa

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10S8S12S13
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S10S11S11S10S9S8S8S6S8S6CalmCalmE3CalmE3CalmNE3N6
1 day agoNW5NW5NW54W4NW4SW6SW7S8S9S12SE11SE9
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2 days agoNW8
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NW7NW7NW6NW9
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NW8NW6NW7NW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.