Saturday, May25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Waukegan, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:19AMSunset 8:17PM Saturday May 25, 2019 9:54 PM CDT (02:54 UTC) Moonrise 1:16AMMoonset 11:22AM Illumination 54% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 900 Pm Cdt Sat May 25 2019
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming west around 10 kt, then northeast late. Showers likely after midnight with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sunday..North winds around 10 kt. Rain showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 kt. Partly cloudy. Waves around 1 ft.
Monday..East winds 10 to 15 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
LMZ740 Expires:201905261030;;465367 FZUS53 KLOT 260200 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 900 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-261030-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Waukegan, IL
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location: 42.37, -87.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 260036 aaa
afdlot
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
736 pm cdt Sat may 25 2019

Update
735 pm cdt
no major changes made to the forecast message on this quiet start
to a Saturday evening on our memorial day weekend. The timing of
thunderstorm arrival into the CWA remains mainly overnight for
much of the area, with the exception being north central illinois
where late evening (9 pm - 12 am) isolated thunderstorms may
occur.

Numerous thunderstorms, some supercellular and severe, have
developed near the iowa missouri border area early this evening,
with isolated showers and storms across eastern iowa. Much of this
activity is being assisted in developing by a strong mid to upper
level speed maximum as seen on water vapor imagery just to the
north. This exists in an analyzed high moisture plume, with 850 mb
dew points of 15c and precipitable waters near 1.5 inches. Large
mucape values of 2000-2500 j kg and deep layer shear (45+ kt) more
than adequate for organization, support the storms sustaining
themselves and additional growth to their east northeast within
the jet streak. Further north along the surface cold front,
located near dubuque to cedar rapids iowa, isolated thunderstorm
development is possible this evening although any deeper updrafts
have been struggling thus far. So our main upstream area of storms
is expected to be southeast iowa.

As the storms continue to increase and their east to east-
northeast movement, they will move into north central northeast
illinois and northwest indiana and peak in coverage overnight.

Confidence in coverage of thunderstorms diminishes north of i-80,
but there will likely be rain with embedded thunder there. The
most sustained activity, with at times west-to-east orientation
and multiple waves, will be favored south of i-80. The low-level
jet replenishing the storms is moderate in intensity, around 25
kt, and not predicted to increase much. This somewhat "in check"
moisture replenishment and limited storm motion offset is the
limiting flash flood potential into our cwa. However, this is
still something we will have to watch as through Sunday morning
one to two inch totals are certainly possible. As for the severe
threat, the high MUCAPE values do intersect the -10c to -30c range
in the forecast soundings, so some severe hail threat will
persist with any stronger updrafts and cannot rule out some
stronger winds in any congealed storms, again both of these more
favored along south of i-80.

Mtf

Short term
151 pm cdt
through Sunday...

destabilization has been slow today in wake of morning
precipitation and continued cloud cover, but dewpoints have risen
into the low to mid 60s. There is some modest instability though
mid level lapse rates are fairly weak, and we are in a bit of a
lull in forcing. There is some hi- res guidance painting a few
storms along the i-80 corridor as instability rebuilds in an axis
of weak lower level converegence, but confidence on this is
pretty low and vertical growth has been limited, thus it appears
most of the area will be dry this afternoon.

The better signal for precipitation storms will be after dark as
a more organized wave across the central southern plains makes
headway across the ridge and interacts with the slowly southward
shifting cold front. Initially the northward extension of any
activity will be limited closer to the better instability. These
will encounter a somewhat unstable environment aloft also. Pwats
will increase to near 1.8", such that heavy rainfall will be a
concern, and while storms will be moving, the upper flow will be
parallel to the front and would support periods of sustained
moderate to heavy rain along and south of i-80. Instability shear
parameter space is also supportive of stronger storms and SPC has
the area in a marginal risk for severe storms. Hail and locally
damaging winds would be the main severe concerns, with the greater
threat (though still marginal) south of the chicago area.

The cold front will bring a shift to northeast winds and a cooler
airmass for Sunday. Some showers will linger into the morning and
possibly some embedded thunderstorms, then expect some clearing
in the afternoon. Highs near the lakeshore will be considerably
cooler, with a modest cooling inland due to the northeast winds
and somewhat drier airmass.

Kmd

Long term
223 pm cdt
Sunday night through Saturday...

the start of the period, Sunday night, is appearing to be on the
drier side. Any activity remaining from the day should quickly
exit, with any upstream development to the west likely not
arriving until Monday morning. Monday morning will be the start of
another active period this next week across the region. Large
upper level low expected to move through the western CONUS on
Monday, with fairly active mid levels likely in place over the
central conus. Surface low trough expected to develop across the
plains and in this pattern, will see broad and strong southerly
flow setup across much of the region with a warm front expected to
lift north through the area. Mid level energy along with WAA and
strong LLJ will likely help showers and thunderstorms spread over
the area early Monday morning but with dry conditions then
expected by midday. Will need to monitor where this trough and
boundary setup Monday afternoon, as its possible these features
remain overhead later in the day Monday. If that were to occur,
then additional thunderstorms will be likely and these will have
the potential to be strong severe.

Once again, where the trough boundary setup will be key for
precip chances Monday night into Tuesday. It's possible that this
boundary lifts north with dry conditions then likely, however, if
it stays in place then periodic showers storms will be possible.

Still some lower confidence on this period setup. By Tuesday
afternoon, will need to turn attention to the west where
additional thunderstorm development is expected with approaching
upper level low and surface low. Setup for severe storms appearing
to be possible Tuesday afternoon to our west. Latest guidance is
showing this might stay to the west, with a slower eastward
progression with the upper level low. Given that guidance is
generally too quick with upper level lows, this latest guidance
seems reasonable. Even if the development were to develop to our
west, its possible that this upstream development shifts east into
northern il by Tuesday night. Will need to monitor this period
for additional strong severe storms. With a slower progression of
this system, thinking additional thunderstorms will be possible
across the CWA on Wednesday and have adjusted the forecast to
reflect this thinking.

Rodriguez

Aviation
For the 00z tafs...

quiescent weather conditions will continue for a few more hours at
the area terminals, but rapidly deteriorating flying conditions
due to showers and storms are expected later this evening and
overnight. Notable impacts to southbound departures will be
possible. The main aviation weather concerns this period stem
around:
1 timing of vcts and any on-station tsra potential late this
evening
2 cessation of higher TS chances late tonight with a transition
to more showery precipitation
3 timing a north wind shift with an incoming cold front
4 any low cig fog potential behind the front, mainly Sunday
evening and overnight
showers and thunderstorms are beginning to increase in coverage to
the west of the c90 tracon with an area of stronger severe
convection straddling the missouri iowa state line. Another area
of bubbling cumulus and developing showers can be seen along a
cold front from near kdbq to kvti to kdsm in iowa. Anticipate a
continued increase in convective coverage through the evening
hours as this activity slowly presses eastwards. Latest model
guidance suggests that the main instability moisture axis will
attempt to set up near and south of i-80 this evening and
overnight, and this is likely where the highest coverage of
thunderstorms will occur as the aforementioned cold front presses
southward. For the chicago area terminals, it appears as if things
will mainly stay in the shra vcts variety overnight with more
limited instability. That said, there will be a window with
somewhat higher chances for on-station tsra at the front end of
developing precipitation tonight, likely during the 7-9z timeframe
and a tempo for -tsra has been added to the 00z tafs after
coordination with the zau cwsu. Additionally added a brief tsra
potential at rfd with convection beginning to intensify along the
cold front just to the west.

The convective evolution overnight is a bit uncertain, but it does
appear as if a developing cold pool should help push most of the
heavier convection incrementally south of i-80. Multi-model
consensus supports a north northeast wind shift into the chicago
area terminals towards 9z or so. Precipitation chances should
come to an end during the late morning early afternoon hours.

Towards the end of the ord mdw extended tafs there is a non-zero
potential for some low cig br development, although confidence in
this is too low to include an explicit mention at this juncture.

Carlaw

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45186 0 mi34 min S 3.9 G 5.8 62°F 51°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 1 mi74 min WSW 9.9 G 12 75°F
45187 8 mi34 min SW 5.8 G 9.7 63°F 49°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 15 mi54 min WSW 8 G 12 76°F 1012.5 hPa (+0.3)
45174 18 mi34 min SW 3.9 G 3.9 66°F 1 ft1013.1 hPa66°F
FSTI2 28 mi114 min WNW 4.1 78°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 34 mi34 min W 13 G 14
CNII2 37 mi24 min SSW 5.1 G 8.9 77°F 62°F
JAKI2 42 mi114 min WSW 4.1 G 6 79°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 46 mi44 min SSW 9.7 G 14 48°F 40°F1013.6 hPa47°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 46 mi36 min SSW 1.9 G 4.1 77°F 1013.5 hPa66°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 47 mi184 min W 13 G 15 80°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL5 mi59 minWSW 710.00 miFair73°F62°F69%1012 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI17 mi61 minSW 710.00 miFair73°F63°F71%1012.5 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL19 mi62 minWSW 310.00 miFair77°F62°F60%1013.4 hPa

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3E4CalmS3S11
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1 day agoN4NE6CalmN3CalmNE3CalmN3SW4SW3E7E6SE8
G19
SE6E3E105E8SE8SE10SE3E6CalmE4
2 days agoS9SW14
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G28
56W546W5W7
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W6W5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.