Monday, November19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Waukegan, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 4:27PM Monday November 19, 2018 9:13 AM CST (15:13 UTC) Moonrise 3:55PMMoonset 3:34AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 317 Am Cst Mon Nov 19 2018
Today..Southwest winds around 15 kt becoming west late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 ft or less building to 1 to 3 ft late in the morning, then subsiding to 1 ft or less in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt. Chance of rain and snow showers through the night. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft after midnight. A small craft advisory will likely be needed.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west in the afternoon. Slight chance of snow showers in the morning. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon. A small craft advisory will likely be needed.
Tuesday night..West winds 15 to 25 kt. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft after midnight.
LMZ740 Expires:201811191615;;530992 FZUS53 KLOT 190917 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 317 AM CST Mon Nov 19 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-191615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Waukegan, IL
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.37, -87.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 klot 191219
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
619 am cst Mon nov 19 2018

Short term
423 am cst
through tonight...

the stratus has been spreading back north overnight reaching close
to the i-80 corridor while increasing high cloud spreads across the
northern portions of the cwa. Latest satellite imagery indicates
that the high cloud is beginning to spread on top of the low level
stratus deck, leaving the entire area under some sort of cloud cover
this morning. While skies were clear for portions of the cwa
overnight, a few isolated pockets of fog were able to develop in low-
lying sheltered areas where winds were calm. Also, a few isolated
observation points were able to see some enhanced radiative cooling.

For example, karr dropped to 10f at midnight, but was back up to 16f
by 330am as the high cloud moved across the area. Cloud trends will
have a large impact on the overnight lows. With the stratus deck
over the southern portions of the CWA all night, lows will be in the
lower 30s, but the northern portions of the cwa, which had a period
of clear skies, lows occurred shortly after midnight, mainly in the
teens to low 20s, and begin to slowly rise with the increasing cloud
cover.

The remainder of the morning will be quiet and dry. The focus of
concern for the rest of today and tonight will shift to pcpn snow
chances. A weak, sheared-out shortwave with an associated cold
front will move through the area this afternoon. Much of the
guidance suggests that the passage of the cold front and upper
shortwave will be dry, but some guidance is still suggesting that
there will be the potential for some light snow showers or flurries
by late afternoon or early evening. However, forecast time height
cross sections note that the weak upper forcing from the shortwave
will precede saturation of the lower levels and that drier air aloft
will move in as the lower levels saturate. So, conditions not
coming together quite right, the dry lower levels will be slow to
saturate and then dry air should move in aloft, have opted not to
include mentionable pops in the forecast for this afternoon and
evening associated with the synoptic scale features.

However, there will be a chance for some lake-effect snow overnight
as a secondary surge of colder air moves down the lake, turning
winds to northerly. Forecast soundings over nwrn in indicate a
small amount of instability in the lower levels, with NAM indicating
almost 300 j kg of lake-induced CAPE and an inversion depth of 5
kft. Some of the higher res guidance is also indicating some
convergence to the wind field over SRN lake michigan. So, have
bumped up pops for locations adjacent to SRN lake michigan for the
potential for lake effect snow. There is some indication that the
convergence zone could migrate far enough west to bring some snow to
the il shores of lake michigan, including the chicago area, but the
better potential for any accumulating snow will more likely be over
nwrn indiana which should have a longer duration of more favorable
onshore winds. At this point, it looks like any accumulation should
be relatively light given rather marginal conditions.

Long term
214 am cst
Tuesday through Sunday...

forecast notes for mid to late week include trending the forecast
more cloudy and cool for Wednesday, which apart from possibly some
minor aviation impacts should not present any major weather
challenges to regional travel on a major travel day. The holiday
continues to look dry with slight moderation from earlier in the
week, with the greater moderation to near normal not until Friday.

Rain chances have been boosted for Friday night and early
Saturday as at least that period is starting to show a stronger
precipitation signal in the guidance envelope.

As northerly winds ease early Tuesday morning, lake effect snow
showers will follow suit. High pressure ridging will scoot quickly
over during the day Tuesday, with temperatures in the lower to
mid 30s being again 10+ degrees below normal. Another short wave
disturbance will ride the northwest upper flow into the great
lakes region by early Wednesday, with its forcing remaining east
of the area. However, a backdoor surface cold front is depicted by
the NAM and GFS to move into the area Wednesday morning, turning
winds northeast and the pattern favors clouds. Some of the
forecast soundings from the NAM even give a hint of patchy
drizzle, but it may be overdone on the magnitude of its low-level
saturation and inversion. Have highs on Wednesday in the mid to
upper 30s from north to south.

Also a trend in especially the GFS is some clouds lingering into
thanksgiving day for northeast illinois and northwest indiana
before south-southeast winds being to usher them northward. Tough
to say at this distance, but forecast highs for thanksgiving are
down a handful of degrees from a couple days ago, with upper 30s
to lower 40s north to south. The 00z longer range guidance
generally keeps Friday morning and likely at least part of the
afternoon dry, with a south wind helping temperatures into the mid
to upper 40s. Even with more clouds by afternoon, advection
should drive the temperatures up.

By Friday, the influence for the regional weather becomes more
driven by the subtropical jet than the northern stream polar one,
as a strong jet progresses across the southern plains into the
mid-lower mississippi valley. A fairly strong wave is forecast to
gradually become negatively titled within this pattern as it
traverses over the area Friday night or early Saturday. The ec
continues to be more amplified and 6-12 hours slower, and the 00z
gefs members do support this more so than the gfs. This would mean
better chances for rain into Saturday. Pwats are predicted to get
into the 0.75 inch area which is not too high, and guidance
predicted QPF shows good member clustering for four-five days
out, with one quarter to one half inch.

For the rest of the holiday weekend into the start of the final
week of november, the pattern is active and progressive, and given
the spread also messy on the forecast front. A stronger wave is
forecast to ride the subtropical jet in that period, with
influence phasing from the northern stream hinted at. So there
could be potential for a bigger precipitation system in that
period. The pattern is forecast to quickly slow by the ec and
especially the gfs, thus northwest flow on the backside of that
system with a pattern favoring below normal temperatures next
week. This is in line with the current CPC 6-10 day outlook.

Mtf

Aviation
For the 12z tafs...

forecast concerns for this period include:
cold front wind shift this evening.

Lake effect snow showers early Tuesday morning.

The stratus deck has spread back north overnight, reaching roughly
the i-80 corridor while mid and high cloud has overspread
locations to the north. Initially, the only site impacted by MVFR
cigs from the stratus is kgyy. Latest guidance suggests that the
stratus deck should lift a little farther north, reaching the
other terminals, but bases should lift to lower endVFR.

A cold front is expected to move across the area this evening.

Southwest winds generally under 10kts will shift westerly ahead of
the front and then to the northwesterly behind the front. Winds
may turn more northerly late tonight or early Tuesday morning and,
possibly, briefly shift to the just east of north near the lake.

There still remains a low chance of scattered snow showers or
flurries with the passage of the cold front but guidance continues
to remain dry with the frontal passage. However, there is a
stronger signal for lake-effect snow showers with a secondary
surge of colder air moving down the lake late tonight and into
Tuesday morning. Guidance is in relatively good agreement for
lake effect snow showers moving into far northeast il and
northwestern in. Confidence higher in the snow showers impacting
kgyy and kmdw, but lower in how far inland any snow showers may
penetrate. For now, will go with prob30 for kmdw kgyy.

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... None.

Visit us at http: weather.Gov chicago (all lowercase)
follow us on facebook... Twitter... And youtube at:


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45186 0 mi33 min W 5.8 29°F 41°F1 ft
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 1 mi33 min SW 9.9 G 13 27°F
45187 8 mi33 min 33°F 42°F1 ft
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 15 mi73 min SW 8 G 11 26°F 1017.9 hPa (-0.7)
FSTI2 28 mi133 min SSW 12 26°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 34 mi43 min SSW 16 G 17 28°F 25°F
CNII2 37 mi28 min SSE 7 G 12 27°F 23°F
JAKI2 42 mi133 min WSW 8 G 12 28°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 46 mi43 min SSW 7 G 8.9 27°F 1018.8 hPa25°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 46 mi83 min SW 14 G 18 34°F 45°F2 ft1018.4 hPa (-0.9)26°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 47 mi33 min WSW 11 G 14 28°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
Last
24hr
W4
W3
G7
NW4
G10
NW7
G10
NW6
NW3
SW4
SW4
G8
SW3
SW6
SW4
SW3
SW3
SW3
SW3
SW3
SW3
SW3
SW4
SW4
SW4
SW4
G7
S6
S9
1 day
ago
W3
W1
NW8
G11
NW5
G11
NW9
G15
N11
G16
N10
G16
N11
G14
N10
G14
N10
G15
NE11
G16
NE11
G16
N9
G16
N8
G13
S4
SW2
W1
W1
W2
W2
W2
W4
W3
G8
2 days
ago
W4
G10
W11
G19
W12
G20
W7
G14
W7
G12
W6
G11
W6
G9
W7
G13
SW9
G13
W3
G6
SW5
G9
SW3
G7
SW4
SW6
G9
W6
W5
W4
NW1
W1
SW2
N3
SW2
W1
W1

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL5 mi18 minWSW 910.00 miFair27°F21°F78%1019.2 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI17 mi20 minSW 1010.00 miFair28°F21°F78%1018.4 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL19 mi21 minSW 86.00 miA Few Clouds with Haze27°F21°F78%1019.7 hPa

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
Last 24hrNW5NW565W7W5W4W3SW3SW4SW5SW4SW54W5SW5SW84SW5SW5SW4SW7SW10SW9
1 day agoN4N6N8N5N5N8N8N4N5N4N5NW5NW5N5N5NW4NW4NW4NW6NW5NW5NW6NW5NW6
2 days agoNW7NW74NW6SW5W5W5543SW4W3CalmW3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmN3NW3N5

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (10,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.