Monday, August21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Waukegan, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 7:43PM Monday August 21, 2017 10:28 PM CDT (03:28 UTC) Moonrise 5:49AMMoonset 7:50PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 907 Pm Cdt Mon Aug 21 2017
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 20 kt becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Mostly clear. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft after midnight.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming north in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
LMZ740 Expires:201708220900;;751951 FZUS53 KLOT 220207 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 907 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-220900-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Waukegan, IL
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location: 42.37, -87.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 220132
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
832 pm cdt Mon aug 21 2017

Update
831 pm cdt
little change to going forecast this evening, though severe
threat continues to appear minimal in the wake in the wake of
extensive morning MCS cold pool and cloud cover across eastern ia
and northern il in. SPC has removed the northern 2 3 and northwest
in from the marginal risk for the remainder of the overnight
hours.

Evening surface analysis depicts weak surface low pressure over
the upper mississippi valley, along a cold front which stretches
from the northern great lakes to the central plains. Strong low-
level baroclinic zone was noted across missouri and downstate il
however, in association with strong outflow boundary from mcs
which decayed across the region earlier in the day. Despite warm
and humid warm sector air mass ahead of the cold front, rap
mesoanalysis and 00z soundings indicate relatively stable capped
near-surface conditions, with weak low-level lapse rates north of
the outflow boundary. Remnants of strong linear MCS over ia
continues to weaken as it propagates east-southeast toward the
mississippi.

While the threat of severe weather diminishes, especially across
northern parts of the cwa, shower and thunderstorm coverage should
continue to increase across the area through late evening as
forcing strengthens in association with a digging amplifying upper
trough across the upper midwest. The resulting increase in
southwesterly low level jet, large scale height falls and the
increasingly favorable upper jet position is expected to allow
showers storms to spread across the region overnight in advance of
the cold front. While some potential for isolated strong wind
gusts will persist across the southern tier or so of counties,
locally heavy rainfall looks to be the primary concern with
overnight storms. Pw's around 2 inches and southwesterly low level
jet parallel to the cold frontal zone may produce some
training back-building in some spots which could produce isolated
rainfall amounts in excess of 1-1.50 inches. Thunderstorm
coverage should diminish from the north northwest toward morning,
with the focus quickly shifting to the east south of the forecast
area after sunrise.

Ratzer

Short term
313 pm cdt
through Tuesday...

main concern is showers and thunderstorms this evening and
overnight and associated risk for primarily heavy downpours and
localized flooding. Current subsident regime behind earlier
short-wave has yielded dry conditions for the time being this
afternoon. Fairly quiet conditions should continue through about
sunset. Thereafter, in the evening into the overnight, trend
should be for increasing coverage of showers and storms tied to
additional short-wave energy arriving from the plains. Main wave
is tied to well defined MCS over NW ia, with another arriving from
ks mo area. A signal on high-res and WRF guidance for a subtle
disturbance and perhaps better lower-level convergence could
provide an earlier evening focus for convection breaking out in
mainly NW indiana (possibly extending into parts of NE il).

Later in the evening and into the overnight as activity expands in
from the west, strengthening low level jet could help sustain more
robust showers and storms, with pwat of 2-2.25" supportive of very
heavy downpours and even localized flooding in stronger storms
depending on residence time training. Overall storm motions do
appear to be quick enough to preclude a more significant flooding
risk. Severe risk appears to be unfavorably timed diurnally, with
an isolated gusty damaging wind risk (wet microburst precip
loading) and deep layer shear possibly supportive of a hail risk
(marginally severe on the high end).

A cold front will sweep across the area on Tuesday, with lingering
isolated-scattered storms possible in the morning (12z-15z) and
focus shifting to mainly southeast of i-55 in the early-mid
afternoon for any additional showers isolated storms immediately
tied to frontal passage. Clouds will clear from the northwest
behind the front in dry air advection and caa, with breezy west
to northwest winds. Highs will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Castro

Long term
241 pm cdt
Tuesday night through Monday...

transition to drier and much cooler weather occurs mid-week and
lingers through the end of the week before a gradual warm-up
brings temps back to near normal for late august.

Surface cold front clears the forecast area to the southeast by
Tuesday evening, with breezy northwest winds bringing a cooler and
less humid air mass into the region. This trend persists through
the end of the week, as a long-wave upper trough deepens across
the eastern conus, and keeps us in deep northwest flow. Surface
high pressure spreads across the region during the period, though
models have been fairly consistent in depicting a mid-level short
wave which digs across the upper midwest and great lakes region
late Wednesday night into early Thursday, with a reinforcing push
of cooler air and a surface cold front passage. Guidance continues
to indicate the potential for some spotty showers early Thursday
as 850 mb temps drop to about +6c over the warm late-august waters
of lake michigan. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected to
persist into the weekend as the surface high strengthens across
the western lakes.

925 mb temps support daytime highs in the low-mid 70's, with
overnight lows dropping into the low-mid 50's. A few upper 40's
are possible in our typical cool spots away from the immediate
chicago metro area and warmer lake front areas.

The eastern CONUS upper trough eventually is progged to drift off
to the east this weekend, with the surface high pressure ridge
also moving off and allowing winds to become more southeasterly.

Medium range solutions of the ECMWF and GFS both indicate a short
wave trough propagating from the northern plains southeast into
the midwest Saturday night into Sunday, though there are
differences with the evolution beyond that time. The ec develops a
deep closed upper low over the area which lingers into the
following Monday, while the GFS is much less amplified. In general
however, a gradual moderation in low-level temps and a modest
increase in low-level moisture is likely.

Ratzer

Aviation
For the 00z tafs...

641 pm... Main forecast concern is thunderstorm potential through
sunrise Tuesday morning.

Short term guidance has been in good agreement showing
thunderstorms developing early this evening over the terminals and
this appears to be starting now and slightly further east then
was expected with convection extending from southern lake michigan
and then more scattered into eastern il. This activity is
expected to shift east over the next few hours with a lull
expected through mid late evening. However... The airmass is moist
and unstable so its possible scattered showers or isolated
thunderstorms could develop at any time.

Focus then shifts to convection across ia and models differ as to
how far east this activity will move overnight as it appears the
strongest convection and more solid line may move south of the
terminals overnight. Confidence is too low to make any significant
changes with this forecast and maintained tempo thunder during the
same time period from the previous forecast. Trends will need to
be monitored later this evening and overnight. Once this activity
moves east southeast of the terminals by sunrise Tuesday morning
only lingering scattered showers are expected Tuesday morning.

Southwesterly winds 10-15 kts this evening will slowly turn more
westerly overnight and then shift northwest Tuesday morning as a
cold front moves across the area. Winds may turn more northerly
for a time Tuesday afternoon. Speeds in the 12-16kt range with
gusts into the 20kt range are expected Tuesday.

Any of the stronger storms will produce heavy rain and brief ifr
MVFR cigs. Prevailing MVFR CIGS are possible overnight and into
Tuesday morning. Maintained previous forecast for MVFR CIGS but
confidence is low regarding how widespread and how long MVFR cigs
may persist. CIGS should lift and scatter Tuesday afternoon. Cms

Marine
241 pm cdt
main marine forecast concerns continue to be on a period of
northerly winds down the length of the lake Tuesday night into
Wednesday. While not overly strong, the long fetch will likely
result in small craft advisory conditions for the shores of
southern lake michigan.

In the near term, a cold front has become nearly stationary near
the north shore of the lake in the upper peninsula. Low pressure
is expected to develop along this front over wisconsin tonight,
moving northeast over far northern lake michigan early Tuesday
morning and trailing a cold front which will push down the lake
during the day. The low is expected to deepen later in the day as
it pulls away into quebec, setting the stage for breezy northwest
winds across the lake. These north-northwest winds will continue
into Wednesday before weakening as high pressure spreads into the
region. The high eventually late Thursday, allowing winds to
diminish and waves to subside. The strongest winds, 20-25 kts, are
expected late Tuesday and Tuesday night, with small craft
advisory conditions expected along the southern shores of the lake
from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.

Ratzer

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... Beach hazards statement... Inz002... 1 pm Tuesday to 4 pm
Wednesday.

Lm... Small craft advisory... Lmz744-lmz745... 1 pm Tuesday to 4 pm
Wednesday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 1 mi49 min SW 9.9 G 15 78°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 15 mi29 min SW 8.9 G 14 77°F 1012.5 hPa (-1.4)
45174 18 mi19 min SSW 9.7 G 12 78°F 74°F1 ft70°F
FSTI2 28 mi89 min SW 14 78°F
OKSI2 33 mi89 min W 1.9 81°F
45177 34 mi149 min 76°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 34 mi39 min SSW 19 G 20 80°F 71°F
JAKI2 42 mi89 min SW 4.1 78°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 46 mi41 min S 6 G 8 78°F 1013.9 hPa73°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 46 mi39 min WSW 14 G 16 76°F 72°F1 ft1013 hPa (-1.8)
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 47 mi39 min SW 8.9 G 11 76°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL5 mi34 minSW 910.00 miPartly Cloudy76°F69°F79%1011.8 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI17 mi36 minSW 810.00 miA Few Clouds76°F69°F79%1012.6 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL19 mi37 minSSW 710.00 miA Few Clouds77°F69°F77%1013.4 hPa

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalm36564CalmS7E4SE8S9S9SW12SW11
G18
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3CalmS4S5S7S9S5E7E7SE7SE7SE7SE5E4CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW33W3NW3NW5NW4CalmNW4NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm5SE8SE8SE8SE5S6S4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.