Thursday, February22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 6:14PM Thursday February 22, 2018 5:45 PM EST (22:45 UTC) Moonrise 11:07AMMoonset 12:22AM Illumination 52% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 338 Pm Est Thu Feb 22 2018
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy this evening becoming cloudy. A chance of light freezing rain early in the morning.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the southwest in the afternoon. A chance of light freezing rain early in the morning. Light showers in the morning...then a chance of light showers early in the afternoon.
Friday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy until early morning becoming partly cloudy.
Saturday..Light and variable winds becoming east 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Cloudy. A chance of light showers in the afternoon. A chance of light snow showers late in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Light showers.
Sunday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots in the evening. Partly Sunny with light showers early in the morning...then mostly Sunny with a chance of light showers in the late morning and early afternoon. Clear in the evening. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Clear.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves omitted due to ice coverage.
LCZ460 Expires:201802230915;;388181 FZUS63 KDTX 222038 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 338 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2018 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure, 30.80 inches, will migrate from the northern Great Lakes eastward to New England tonight. Low pressure of 30.00 inches will then track through the northern Great Lakes Friday before another high pressure, 30.30 inches, builds back in from the west on Saturday. Yet another low pressure, around 29.00 inches, will lift northeast into the Great Lakes on Sunday. LCZ460-230915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe, MI
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location: 42.38, -82.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 222015
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
315 pm est Thu feb 22 2018

Discussion
Mid clouds stripped away this afternoon allowing temperatures to
reach into the upper 30s to around 40 degrees across most areas. Dew
pts are predominately in the mid 20s. Mid clouds should be returning
this evening, limiting the diurnal fall expected tonight (upper 20s
to lower 30s), as low level warm advection ramps up as well.

Strong upper wave coming out of the four corners region, tracking
through southern minnesota late tonight, with MAX 6 hr height fall
center tracking through lake superior during Friday. Thus, max
forcing better isentropic ascent displaced to our northwest, but
there looks to be adequate moisture advection isentropic ascent
arriving close to 12z Friday to support developing precipitation. It
does not appear the surface high over eastern canada will put up
much of a fight, and models indicating a real good surge of warm air
in the 925-850 mb layer, rising into the upper single numbers to
near 10 c. Thus, even if surface temperatures are marginally below
freezing, it is not a given the warm drops will freeze on contact.

Either way, freezing threat looks limited brief early Friday
morning, and certainly not enough confidence to issue an advisory.

If anything, could see a little freezing drizzle with shallow
moisture before 11z, but otherwise latest hrrr keeps it mainly dry
through 11z, and then expect dew pts to rise above freezing, with
temperatures climbing well into the 40s during the day.

Mid level dry slot arriving Friday afternoon will shut off the rain,
with low level cold air then bleeding in Friday night with northerly
drainage flow. Depth of cold air and southern placement in question
on Saturday as baroclinic zone aligns in west-east fashion, with
high pressure (1026 mb) sliding through the northern great lakes.

This high will tend to help maintain the low level cold feed during
the day, as precipitation potentially overspreads southern lower
michigan (see 12z canadian euro). A light wintry mix is not out of
the question, but surface temps likely well above freezing and with
the daytime timing, probably looking at mainly just a cold rain.

Strong low pressure progged to be centered over the up of michigan
Sunday morning will pull an occluded frontal boundary across
southeast michigan early Sunday. Behind this front, a much drier air
mass will quickly end precipitation as better mixing allows gusty
winds to overspread the region throughout the day on Sunday. High
pressure will then build into the region early next week as upper
level ridging slowly rebuilds over the eastern us. This will bring a
period of dry, calm conditions to southeast michigan through Tuesday
as temperatures remain above average with highs in the mid 40s to
lower 50s while lows fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s. As the
high moves to the eastern seaboard by midweek, return southwesterly
flow will advect moisture across the region ahead of the next wave
moving into the central us. Shower chances look to increase starting
Wednesday as temperatures remain above average with highs in the mid
40s to near 50.

Marine
Light to moderate flow will dominate through Saturday. Strong east
to southwest wind will develop on Saturday night as a deepening low
lifts toward the straits. Stability may be sufficient to probhit
gusts to gales on Saturday night, but the gradient will ramp up as
wind turns southwesterly on Sunday. A gale watch may eventually be
needed for the waters of lake huron... Particularly the central axis
of the lake including part or all of saginaw bay.

Hydrology
Flood warnings remain in effect for most of the primary river basins
over southeast michigan. Additional rain on Friday is not expected
to contribute to additional flooding or prolong existing flooding as
amounts will remain generally one quarter of an inch or less.

Another round of rain will then impact the area late Saturday into
Saturday night with perhaps one half of an inch of rainfall falling
in some areas. This may impact river and stream levels to some
degree, but should not exacerbate flooding to any great degree.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1237 pm est Thu feb 22 2018
aviation...

vfr early this afternoon as lake-enhanced stratocu burns off at mbs.

Northeast flow will gradually veer to east and then southeast over
the course of the forecast period as a weak low lifts toward the
straits. Regional obs indicate widesprad ifr and lifr across the
great plains and ohio valley, with some improvement over northern
il in as diurnal heating works against the northern fringes of the
incoming airmass. Northward push of moisture will cause south-to-
north deterioration to at least ifr for the balance of the night
with a potential window for lifr roughly 09-15z to be evaluated in
future forecast issuances in association with a secondary moisture
push. This push will likely produce some precip on the lead edge
that may fall as freezing rain before dewpoints rise above freezing.

Ptype then quickly changes to rain for the remainder of Friday
morning.

For dtw... With MVFR on the doorstep immediately south and little
northward movement, timing of initial drop in CIGS is uncertain.

Latest high res suggests around 21z. 10-13z is favored low
confidence window for -fzra.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for cigs AOB 5kft
* low for fzra. High for rain after 13z.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Sf jd
marine... ... .Jvc
hydrology... .Jvc
aviation... ..Jvc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 6 mi46 min NE 7 G 8 34°F 1034.5 hPa (-1.1)
AGCM4 26 mi46 min 36°F 1033.7 hPa (-1.3)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 41 mi46 min E 12 G 12 33°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 48 mi46 min 35°F 1034.5 hPa (-0.7)

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Last
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI7 mi53 minNE 910.00 miA Few Clouds38°F23°F55%1034.9 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI17 mi50 minENE 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy38°F27°F67%1035 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI19 mi51 minNE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy40°F25°F57%1034.5 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI24 mi51 minENE 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy37°F28°F70%1033.9 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE8E5E7E7E7NE6NE7NE7NE9NE8NE10NE9NE7NE7NE7NE8NE6NE7NE11E9NE9NE10
G15
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1 day agoS10S10S16
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NW8W3SW3W3CalmSW4W5NW9
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NW9N8NW8N12
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2 days agoSW12SW11SW10SW15
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SW11SW8S6SW10SW10SW6S6SW6SW5SW4S9S10SW14
G24
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SW15SW14SW17
G24
SW9S8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.