Monday, January21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:53AMSunset 5:32PM Monday January 21, 2019 1:08 PM EST (18:08 UTC) Moonrise 6:18PMMoonset 8:18AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 958 Am Est Mon Jan 21 2019
Rest of today..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny.
Tonight..Light and variable winds becoming south 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear until early morning becoming mostly cloudy.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly cloudy.
Tuesday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Light snow in the evening. A chance of light sleet late in the evening. Rain in the late evening and overnight.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon...then diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the evening. Cloudy. Light rain early in the morning...then light rain likely in the late morning and early afternoon.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. Waves omitted due to ice coverage.
LCZ460 Expires:201901212100;;700955 FZUS63 KDTX 211458 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 958 AM EST Mon Jan 21 2019 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure, 30.70 inches, will settle into the Ohio Valley today. This high will drift east to be located over the east coast by Tuesday. Low pressure, 29.60 inches, is forecast to lift into the northern Great Lakes from the southern Plains Tuesday night; then across Lake Huron Wednesday morning before lifting into southern Quebec Wed afternoon. Weak high pressure will advance into the region in its wake. An arctic cold front is then forecast to advance across Lake Huron Thursday night. LCZ460-212100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe, MI
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location: 42.38, -82.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 211716
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1216 pm est Mon jan 21 2019

Aviation
Resident cold and dry conditions will ensure a stretch of quiet
aviations conditions through Tuesday. Some thickening high based
cloud for the overnight period, but with skies remain clear across
the lowest 8-10k ft. West-northwest winds dimininishing this
afternoon and evening. Winds becoming southeast overnight and
holding from this direction through Tuesday.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* none.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1155 am est Mon jan 21 2019
update...

as of 1155 am est... Quick update to allow the wind chill advisory
across all of southeast michigan to expire at noon. Wind chills
across the region are now above -15 degrees, and coldest values the
remainder of today will generally only fall into the -5 to -10 degree
range.

Rest of forecast remains unchanged and previous discussion below
highlights in more detail.

Prev discussion...

issued at 1014 am est Mon jan 21 2019
update...

as of 1010 am est... Very cold start to the morning across the region
as arctic airmass associated with strong (upper 1030s hpa) high
pressure is locked in place over the central great lakes. Morning
lows were virtually below zero across all of southeast michigan, with
several locations even dipping into the -10 to -15 degree range.

Persistent light northwest flow has made it feel even colder, with
dangerous wind chills as low as -25 degrees across much of the region
around daybreak. Wind chills will continue to be a significant
concern through at least noon, with values dipping below -15 degrees.

The wind chill advisory remains in effect through noon, and will
reassess then if a couple hour extension is needed for any portion of
the area.

Despite the arctic airmass in place (around -20 c at 850 hpa), a full
day of insolation will help boost high temperatures into the lower
teens, with the only notable cloud cover associated with remnant lake
effect snow activity across the far eastern thumb and into the
southern lake huron basin. This lake effect activity continues to be
light in nature according to radar and mrms trends, and with the flow
gaining an increasingly westerly component as the day progresses,
have cancelled the winter weather advisory for huron and sanilac
counties as any additional snow accumulations will be under an inch.

The surface high will drift southeast into northern ohio by late this
evening, and with the high close by with deeper snowpack south of
m-59, lowered low temperatures a few degrees tonight as they crater
slightly below zero by midnight, then slowly warm the remainder of
the night. Low temperatures around -5 degrees will be in play
especially south of the i-94 corridor.

Prev discussion...

issued at 250 am est Mon jan 21 2019
discussion...

frigid airmass in place, as the 00z dtx sounding came in with an 850
mb temp of -25 c. Surface temperatures have already fallen into the
zero to -10 f range at press time, with just enough wind to easily
support wind chills in the -20 to -25 f range. Wind chill advisory
will continue through noon for all of southeast michigan, with a few
locations even briefly colder than -25 f. Meanwhile,
multiple disorganized bands of lake effect snow continues over
southern lake huron, with NAM rap still indicating modest 925 mb
lift positive omega through the morning hours impacting the eastern
shoreline, and seems prudent just to extend the winter weather
advisory to noon to match the wind chill expiration. Building
heights warming mid levels and anticyclonic flow pushing eastward
will certainly cause activity to gradually diminish and push bands
offshore as the day wears on.

Meanwhile, the center of the arctic high should be over northwest
ohio this evening, setting up areas right near the southern michigan
border with the deeper snow cover to have a good drop, below zero
this evening, with temps rising a bit overnight as we begin to get
in return flow behind the high and warm advection mid high clouds
work through the area. These dry arctic air masses tend to be
stubborn to dislodge right near the surface (and this is evident
with the dew pts lagging), and actually think a snow to wintry mix
(sleet freezing rain) is in store Tuesday evening as low pressure
tracks into the western great lakes, with the night time setting not
doing any favors helping to accelerate the transition to rain.

Still, the low level jet is so strong (70 knots), transporting 5
g kg of specific humidity within the 850-700 mb layer, warm air
should win out fairly quickly, at least up through i-69 corridor,
with areas north having a bit longer of a period of frozen
precipitation as they will be closer to the low track on Wednesday.

Even so, local SREF weighted probabilistic guidance suggests just 1-
3 inches of snow accumulation, with ice accumulations less than a
tenth up that way for tri-cities and northern thumb region, with
amounts quickly tapering off as one heads south with the quicker
transition to rain.

Enjoy the milder Wednesday, as the next arctic plunge is on track to
arrive Thursday evening night, sending 850 mb temps back down into
the negative low-mid 20s on Friday (blend of fv3-gfs euro), with a
reinforcing shot coming for Saturday as clipper tracks through
Friday night. Light snow accumulations are possible with this
moisture starved system due to the pristine thermal profiles high
snow to liquid ratios. Although the latest euro has trended farther
south with the track and is almost too far south, and many gfs
ensemble members provide support to the euro solution.

Bitter cold airmass, with temps 10-15 degrees below normal appear
locked in for the weekend in the clipper's wake, as amplified north
american trough sets up along and east of the mississippi river.

Marine...

winds and waves will decrease during the course of the day as arctic
high pressure expands across lower michigan. This will lower the
risk of freezing spray as the day wears on. The high will advance
east to the east coast by Tuesday morning. Strengthening southerly
return flow will develop across lake huron tonight in its wake. The
high will hold over the east coast into Wednesday morning while low
pressure lifts across the northern great lakes Tuesday night.

Strengthening southerly winds will result tonight into Tuesday. The
strong winds will persist into early Wednesday before the low exits
to the northeast of the region. The onset of the winds will occur as
remnant arctic air resides across the lakes. Even as strong low
level warming gets underway Tuesday night, the corresponding
strengthening of the southerly gradient will sustain strong winds
despite decreasing over lake stability. While the probability of
wind gusts over 40 knots tues and tues night is low, the probability
of gusts to 35 knot gales is high, prompting the issuance of a gale
watch.

Another intrusion of arctic air is forecast to overspread the great
lakes thurs night into Friday. This will bring another round of
gusty winds (possibly gale force) and high probabilities of heavy
freezing spray.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Heavy freezing spray warning until 4 pm est this afternoon for
lhz363-462>464.

Gale watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
lhz361>363-462>464.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for lhz421-
441>443.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Mr
update... ... .Irl
discussion... Sf
marine... ... .Sc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 6 mi69 min WNW 8 G 12 9°F 1035.2 hPa (+1.7)
AGCM4 26 mi39 min 11°F 32°F1033.8 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 48 mi39 min 11°F 1032.9 hPa

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Last
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N17
G31
N18
G30
N15
G28
N15
G29
NW13
G29
NW18
G27
NW15
G22
NW12
G26
NW16
G28
NW15
G26
NW14
G24
NW14
G24
NW18
G23
NW16
G24
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G23
NW15
G21
NW15
G21
NW14
G20
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NW12
G17
1 day
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E16
E16
G20
E23
E24
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NE26
NE29
NE27
NE28
E32
NE30
NE29
NE29
G38
NE39
NE36
NE36
N13
G23
N13
G23
N12
G31
NW21
G28
NW16
G22
NW18
G29
N22
G31
2 days
ago
NW4
G12
NW5
G11
NW8
G13
N5
G10
N4
N5
G10
N7
N5
G8
NW6
G11
N5
G8
NE15
G19
E22
E18
E15
SE11
SE11
SE8
G11
SE9
E17
E18
E19
E20
E20
E17

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI7 mi76 minNW 710.00 miFair10°F-2°F55%1036.7 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI17 mi73 minWNW 1110.00 miOvercast9°F-1°F61%1036.3 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI19 mi74 minWNW 510.00 miFair10°F-6°F48%1035.2 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI24 mi74 minNW 710.00 miFair7°F-5°F54%1035.2 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN16
G23
N11
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N11
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G18
NW11
G18
N7N7N10NW9NW9NW12
G17
NW9
G16
NW8NW9NW7NW7NW7NW7W5NW6W8NW8NW7NW6
1 day agoNE11
G16
NE13
G22
NE14
G20
NE12NE11N13N16
G22
N13
G24
N17
G22
N15N15
G25
N15
G23
N17
G27
N16
G26
N15
G29
N15
G27
N14
G26
NW11
G19
NW10
G20
NW14
G21
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G20
N11
G20
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G24
2 days agoNW10NW9NW7NW6N3N4N4N7N3NE6NE4NE6NE11NE9NE7E8E10NE9NE10
G20
NE9NE10
G20
NE12NE11
G18
NE12
G17

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.