Monday, September24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe, MI

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 7:25PM Monday September 24, 2018 1:30 PM EDT (17:30 UTC) Moonrise 6:39PMMoonset 5:38AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 1002 Am Edt Mon Sep 24 2018
Rest of today..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Light showers likely late in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Light showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Showers and a chance of Thunderstorms early in the morning...then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Light showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the evening. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the morning...then mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201809242015;;136941 FZUS63 KDTX 241402 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1002 AM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A developing area of low pressure will strengthen to 29.70 inches as it lifts across the midwest today. Increasing southerly winds downstream of this system will draw warmer and more humid conditions into the area through Tuesday. Potential unsettled conditions through this time, with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. A cold front attendant to the low will lift through the central great lakes Tuesday night. LCZ460-242015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe, MI
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location: 42.38, -82.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 241657
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1257 pm edt Mon sep 24 2018

Aviation
The expansive plume of MVFR stratus, mainly produced from lake erie
during the morning, persists during the afternoon ahead of the warm
front organizing over indiana and ohio. Showers along and ahead of
the front spread northward during late afternoon without much
intensity until closer to 00z this evening, and then with minimal
evidence of thunderstorms. At the same time, ifr ceiling associated
with the warm front spreads northward and develops into the dtw area
roughly coinciding with the onset of heavier rainfall. A nocturnal
progression of the warm front northward through lower michigan
favors lifr ceiling development overnight and persistence through
early Tuesday morning. A gradual improving trend follows through
MVFR as the warm sector air mass moves overhead toward noon Tuesday.

For dtw... MVFR ceiling transitioning to ifr toward evening, and
then lifr toward midnight persists into Tuesday morning. The low
ceiling is accompanied by mainly ifr visibility, subject to downward
adjustments, in rain and fog as a warm front approaches and moves
through the terminal corridor. Thunderstorm potential remains
limited tonight and has much timing and coverage uncertainty during
Tuesday.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less tonight through Tuesday.

* low for ceiling 200 ft overnight and Tuesday morning.

* very low for thunderstorms tonight.

Prev discussion
Issued at 903 am edt Mon sep 24 2018
update...

lake effect stratus has quickly blown up this morning, the primary
source being lake erie where the clouds are anchored over the center
of the lake. Some influence from lake saint clair is also noted.

Mesoanalysis suggests current overlake instability is characterized
by 0-1km theta-e lapse rates anywhere from -5c km to -15c km over
erie and around -5c km over saint clair, healthier than was previously
anticipated for this hour. Ongoing warm advection will still take an
increasing toll on lake clouds through the morning and early
afternoon, but stratus will still more or less fill the gap until
synoptic- scale cloud fills in this afternoon. Tweaked temps and
ramped up cloud cover. Updated zones already sent at 849 edt.

Prev discussion...

issued at 310 am edt Mon sep 24 2018
discussion...

ideal late september day yesterday with MAX temperatures right where
they should be for this time year, around 70 degrees.

Moisture pooled along the ohio river early this morning will be
lifting north today as sheared out shortwave upper level PV over
western ohio valley tracks northeast. Pw values increasing to
around 1.5 inches over southeast michigan toward 00z Tuesday. Waves
of isentropic ascent moisture advection will saturate the low
levels, and should be able to generate light rain this
evening tonight, per local SREF weighted probabilistic guidance.

Even marginal instability (showalter index slightly negative) to
potentially support a few thunderstorms, although the low level jet
core tonight looks to be tracking just to our east.

What happens to the low clouds on Tuesday will go a long way in
determining out severe chances as cold front arrives during the
evening hours. Raw 00z NAM output suggests surface dew pts rising
into the upper 60s, with MLCAPE of 1000-1300 j kg north of m-59,
closer to the mid level cold air (500 mb temps -10 to -13 c). If
that amount of instability verifies, 0-6 km bulk shear of 50+ knots
will support a severe wind threat, as large scale ascent arrives
from the strong upper level trough entering the western great lakes.

Spc day 2 indicates a slight chance of severe, as increasing 0-1 km
bulk shear (30+ knots) coming up from the south and arriving during
the evening hours also suggests a low chance of tornadoes with
sufficient instability low level cape, which remains highly
uncertain at this time.

Cold front clearing the state by sunrise Wednesday, with pretty good
low level cold advection during the morning hours, offset by
sunshine underneath mid level dry slot. Although, a decent CU up is
expected, along with breezing conditions. 850 mb temps of 3 to 5 c
at 21z suggests MAX temps holding in the 60s, setting us up for cool
night as mins fall into 40s Wednesday night. Should be just enough
gradient southwest winds to keep mins from cratering within the dry
airmass (pw values around half an inch), but locations near the
southern michigan border stand the best chance of going calm, and
potentially sneaking into upper 30s, and bringing a chance of fog,
especially around the warm inland lakes.

Another potent upper level trough will rotate through the western
great lakes Thursday evening, with the cold front on schedule to
slip through southeast michigan by sunrise Friday. Tight baroclinic
zone at 850 mb then looks to be draped across southern lower
michigan through the weekend, and subtle upper level shortwaves
riding along the zonal flow may be enough to get mid level fgen
showers going, and low chance pops will be carried. On Monday, a
stronger ripple low pressure forecasted to ride along the front (per
00z euro) to support a much higher chance of rain.

Marine...

a moderate early day easterly flow will gradually veer to
southeasterly while strengthening through the day. Winds gusts will
peak near 30 knots at times over portions of central lake huron
early tonight. The onshore flow will maintain significant wave
action over the next 24 hours, with maximum wave heights reaching 10
to 15 feet over much of central lake huron. Wind will then diminish
on Tuesday as low pressure moves over the waters. However, moderate
to fresh northwest flow will quickly redevelop on Wednesday as a
large canadian high builds from the west.

Hydrology...

numerous showers are expected this evening and overnight as a warm
front lifts across the state. Rainfall totals of one quarter to one
half-inch are anticipated with this round of rainfall. The chance
for additional showers, along with isolated thunderstorms, will
exist Tuesday and Tuesday night. A cold front will sweep through the
region Tuesday night, bringing drier conditions for the late week
period. No flooding is expected through the upcoming week.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 10 am edt Tuesday for
lhz441>443.

Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Tuesday for lhz421.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Bt
update... ... .Jvc
discussion... Sf
marine... ... .Mr
hydrology... .Mr
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 6 mi31 min E 16 G 19 65°F 1022.7 hPa (-0.7)
45147 - Lake St Clair 12 mi31 min ESE 18 G 19 65°F 66°F2 ft1021.6 hPa (-1.2)
AGCM4 26 mi31 min 64°F 66°F1022.4 hPa (-1.0)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 41 mi31 min E 18 G 20 65°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 48 mi31 min 62°F 1022.8 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI7 mi38 minE 1010.00 miOvercast65°F60°F84%1022.1 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI17 mi2.6 hrsENE 910.00 miOvercast61°F61°F100%1023.2 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI19 mi36 minESE 710.00 miOvercast67°F59°F76%1022.7 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI24 mi36 minESE 710.00 miOvercast67°F61°F82%1021 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4SE8E6E6SE4E4E4NE4NE6NE6NE5NE5E3NE4E5NE5NE4NE4E6E7SE10SE13
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1 day agoNE4SE5E4SE6E4SE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N5N4N4NE6E7E73
2 days agoW17
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N13N10N10N9N7N6N11N8N6E6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.