Tuesday, November21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:29AMSunset 5:05PM Tuesday November 21, 2017 4:24 PM EST (21:24 UTC) Moonrise 10:03AMMoonset 7:45PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 337 Pm Est Tue Nov 21 2017
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Cloudy with light snow showers likely early in the evening...then mostly cloudy with a chance of light snow showers late in the evening. Mostly clear after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy until early morning becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots in the afternoon and evening. Mostly Sunny...then partly cloudy with a chance of showers in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Saturday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots. Partly cloudy. Showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201711220900;;760627 FZUS63 KDTX 212038 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 337 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2017 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure, 30.40 inches, will gradually push east from the Central Plains into the Ohio Valley late Tuesday into late Wednesday, which will gradually increase pressure and relax winds across the Great Lakes region. Prior to high pressure situating across the Ohio Valley, sustained wind speeds and gusts are expected to hold steady into the morning hours on Wednesday, peaking between 20 - 25 knots, before relaxing by Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise, a weak low, 30.00 inches, will then push in across the Great Lakes throughout Thursday, with pressure holding steady through Friday morning. LCZ460-220900-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe, MI
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location: 42.38, -82.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 211957
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
257 pm est Tue nov 21 2017

Discussion
Cold front will surge through area late this afternoon early this
evening. Lift from upper trough forcing this front aided to some
degree by right entrance region of h25 jet streak lifting up east
side of the trough will maintain a band of rain showers along and
immediately behind this front. Cold air advection will be strong
enough to allow for some of this precipitation to chance to snow,
either mixed with the rain or becoming snow showers outright. With
generally light precipitation rates and boundary layer temperatures
in the mid to upper 30s, do not expect any accumulations before the
precipitation ends abruptly in the 22z-02z time frame from north to
south across the forecast area.

Colder air will settle into the area behind this front, with lows in
the low mid 20s tonight and highs no better than the middle 30s on
Wednesday as the core of this cold airmass settles over the central
great lakes. That said, winds will decrease notably as compared to
the past few days, so the "chill" factor will not be as persistent.

A moderation in temperatures will ensue from Wednesday night into
Thursday night as main upper troughing progresses off to the east.T
this process will initially be rather slow as another (weaker)
shortwave pivots into the area and maintains some degree of upper
troughing. This should lead to a progression of temperatures from
the middle 20s once again Wednesday night, rebounding to upper 30s
to around 40 Thursday afternoon, but falling back into the mid upper
20s Thursday night.

Precipitation, after early this evening, will be basically nil with
perhaps a small chance of snow showers again for at least portions
of the area late Thursday night as a stronger warm air advection
pattern begins to set up in advance of the next strong shortwave
that will be dropping out of the gulf alaska region mid late week.

Marine
A cold front sweeping across the region will bring gusty northwest
winds across the eastern lakes in it's wake this evening through
tonight. The switch from southwest flow to northwest flow has
already begun as the front currently resides over central lake huron
and saginaw bay. The front will pass south of lake erie later this
evening with a secondary trough and cold surge lagging a few hours
behind. Cold air funneling into the region with a tight pressure
gradient will lead to a period of northwest gales across northern
lake huron through most of the overnight period. Slightly weaker
winds across southern huron will not necessitate gales, but small
craft advisories are in effect for a portion of the nearshore waters
around the thumb mainly due to elevated wave heights. Lake-effect
snow showers will be common in the cold air behind the front. Winds
will relax early Wednesday morning as high pressure builds into the
region.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1229 pm est Tue nov 21 2017
aviation...

a cold front will sweep through SE mi this afternoon bringing with
it increasing cloud cover and a brief window of light precipitation.

The front is current dropping into mid mi with a surge of moisture
ahead of it now nosing into mbs. Better frontal forcing will be
further south likely keeping mbs dry, but the rest of the sites will
have about a 2 hour window where showers will be possible. Rain will
be the dominate precip type, but as colder air begins moving in,
some wet snowflakes may be possible as well. Front will exit the
area around 00z. Winds will veer from southwesterly to westerly for
a few hours before veering further to northwesterly. Gusts will
relax in the wake of the front with winds overall decreasing below
10 knots Wednesday. How fast clouds clear out in the wake of the
front will be one of the main forecast decisions.

For dtw... Gusts to 25 knots from the southwest will continue into
the evening until the cold front passes. The cold frontal wind shift
to westerly is expected around 21z and a full shift to northwesterly
around 00z - which may flirt with traffic flow considerations before
gusts relax. Window of rain showers still expected this afternoon for
a couple hours with some wet snowflakes mixing in toward the tail
end. Ground temperatures will remain above freezing.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high confidence in cigs AOB 5000 feet after 20z today... Low
after 03z.

* moderate confidence in precip type falling as a rain transitioning
to melting snow late this afternoon into this evening.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Gale warning until 10 pm est this evening for lhz361.

Gale warning until 4 am est Wednesday for lhz362.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm est Wednesday for lhz441.

Small craft advisory until 5 am est Wednesday for lhz421.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Dg
marine... ... .Drk
aviation... ..Drk
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 6 mi84 min SSW 11 G 17 49°F 1008.1 hPa (+1.3)
AGCM4 26 mi54 min 47°F 1007.7 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 41 mi44 min WSW 14 G 15 46°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 48 mi54 min 49°F 1006.7 hPa

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Last
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SW17
G23
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G25
SW21
G29
SW17
G27
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SW17
G26
SW15
G24
SW16
G22
SW13
G23
SW17
G26
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SW17
G25
SW14
G20
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G22
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G22
W15
G24
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G24
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G21
SW9
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G16
1 day
ago
NW7
G16
NW11
G17
NW6
G11
NW10
G17
W9
G12
W7
G13
W8
G14
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G13
W6
G9
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G9
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SW5
G11
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G15
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G17
SW9
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G20
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G29
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G25
2 days
ago
NE26
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G33
N18
G30
N14
G24
N16
G24
N19
G26
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G27
NW15
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G21
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G14
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G23
NW11
G16
NW9
G12
NW9
G15
NW12
G18
W8
G11

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI7 mi31 minWSW 1110.00 miOvercast49°F32°F52%1009.1 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI17 mi28 minSW 710.00 miOvercast49°F34°F59%1008.6 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI19 mi29 minWNW 11 G 1610.00 miLight Rain48°F37°F65%1009.5 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI24 mi31 minWSW 11 G 1810.00 miOvercast48°F33°F58%1009.1 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10SW16
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G26
SW14
G26
SW15
G22
SW14
G21
SW16
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SW12
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SW13SW14
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SW11
G21
SW14SW15
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SW17
G24
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SW12SW11
1 day agoW10
G17
W13
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W7W6W7W10W7SW6SW8SW7SW10SW10SW9SW9SW10SW13
G18
SW14
G21
SW12
G21
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G26
SW16
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G28
SW17
G24
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2 days agoN11
G18
N15
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W8W9
G17
NW12
G21
W12
G17
W11
G18
NW16
G20
NW9
G17
W9
G15
W12
G17

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.