Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 5:10PM Thursday November 15, 2018 10:29 PM EST (03:29 UTC) Moonrise 1:43PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 56% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 1001 Pm Est Thu Nov 15 2018
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy. Light rain and snow likely this evening...then a chance of light rain and snow after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Cloudy. Light rain and snow showers likely in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Cloudy with a chance of light rain and snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy until early morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..North winds 5 to 10 knots backing to the west in the afternoon...then increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the evening. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201811160900;;370459 FZUS63 KDTX 160302 RRA GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1001 PM EST THU NOV 15 2018 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure, 30.10 inches, will continue to lift from southern Indiana to western Lake Erie through the evening. Meanwhile, a deeper low pressure system will develop off the east coast today before lifting into southern New England by Friday morning. Another low pressure system, 29.60 inches, will track across the northern Great Lakes on Friday. Weak high pressure will move over the region Friday night before a frontal system settles across the southern Great Lakes on Saturday. LCZ460-160900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe, MI
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location: 42.38, -82.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 152339
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
639 pm est Thu nov 15 2018

Aviation
Light snow will continue this evening as low pressure passes just to
the south southeast. While a bit of rain shower activity may mix in
i-94, most precipitation will fall as snow. Expect ifr to MVFR cigs
and vsbys with occasional reductions into the lifr range possible in
most well developed snow showers bands. This activity will wane
after midnight, but another fast moving disturbance will bring a
burst of light snow in the 10z-12z to 14z-16z time frame on Friday
morning, especially kptk north. Southeast winds will become
southwest overnight and then veer to west northwest with the passage
of this second system (wind gusts to 20+ knots on Friday). CIGS will
come up by midday Friday and trend to lowerVFR by the end of the
forecast with a more sct-bkn nature (as opposed to ovc most of the
forecast).

For dtw... Slight snow will continue this evening and then wane
during the overnight. A second brief period of light snow will then
be possible Friday morning as shortwave passes by quickly. Ifr cigs
and vsbys will be common in the light snow this evening with a trend
to more MVFR overnight into Friday morning (and lowerVFR by Friday
afternoon). Gusty west flow will develop on Friday in wake of second
system with 20-22 knot gusts common by mid late morning.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* medium confidence precipitation will remain largely light snow this
evening.

* high in ceilings below 5000 ft through Friday morning, medium
thereafter

Prev discussion
Issued at 559 pm est Thu nov 15 2018
update...

updated to issue a winter weather advisory for generally the i-69
county corridor north overnight into Friday morning. Current
temperatuers of 32f or less will allow for better accumulation on
roadways (as opposed to slightly milder areas to the south). In
addition, additional snowfall amounts look to be a bit higher, more
in the 2 to 3 inch range, as evening light snow remains more
persistent and a secondary disturbance also brings an additional
burst of light snow late tonight into early Friday morning (which
will likely focus over this portion of the forecast area). The
advisory will be in effect through 10 am to allow light snow with
this second system to end Friday morning.

To the south, periods of light snow will also persist this evening,
but totals will range closer to an inch. Much of metro detroit is
currently in the 33f-35f range for surface temperatures, so roads
will not be impacted as much.

Prev discussion...

issued at 315 pm est Thu nov 15 2018
discussion...

fast progressive flow kicking in, with good chance of snow showers
tomorrow morning and then again on Saturday.

Although precip type has been mainly snow (some mix of rain ice
pellets) through the day, temperatures hovering around freezing have
limited the accumulation on the roads, with highways mainly wet. Any
additional snow accumulations above 1 inch (after 6 pm) look to be
confined north of i-69 where deformation looks to persist into the
evening hours.

Post sunset, its possible temps could drop at or below freezing this
evening, but more than likely will wait have to until the overnight
hours (for most locations), as northern illinois indiana cools, with
strengthening southwest flow advecting some of this near
surface near surface colder air in, ahead of the upper wave tracking
through western great lakes. Thus, will have to be leary of icy
spots for early morning Friday commute with residual moisture on
untreated roads.

In addition, it appears this wave and associated isentropic ascent
arriving Friday morning will be sufficient to generate scattered-
numerous snow showers, although less than ideal 850 700 mb temps, -5
to -7 c in that layer, likely limiting accumulations to less than an
inch. On the flip side, the NAM rap soundings do indicate a deep
layer of supersaturation with respect to ice above 6 kft, but it
looks to be a short period (less than 3 hrs).

Post wave subsidence to kick in Friday afternoon, but it will be
breezy with well mixed boundary layer, as local probabilistic
guidance suggests wind gusts around 30 mph. Diurnal recovery into
the upper 30s to near 40 degrees expected, in line with guidance.

Excellent low to mid level baroclinic zone set up for Friday night-
Saturday with yet another jet streak tracking through northern lower
michigan on Saturday, with the slight ripple in the low levels
triggering a brief transient fgen response. Good amount of cold air
filtering in for Saturday night, as 850 mb temps progged to lower to
-9 to -12 c with pronounced surface ridge building in. Could see mins
dip into the teens in the normally colder locations.

The bulk of the extended forecast will be characterized by continued
below-normal conditions as a thermal trough holds across the great
lakes, capping daytime highs in the low to mid-30s Sunday into
Wednesday, with overnight lows in the low to mid-20s, possibly
dropping into the upper-teens. For reference, normal highs hold in
the mid to upper-40s around mid to late november, putting departure
from normal between 10 to 15 degrees. Moderate confidence to see a
break from below-normal temperatures towards the tail-end of the
extended period starting Thursday as flow turns more zonal across
the eastern u.S. The ECMWF is the most aggressive with the warm-up as
a anticyclonic flow around high pressure situated across the western
atlantic will aid in ushering warmer air across michigan, noted by
h850 temperatures rising to an average of 4c late Thursday evening.

This will increase temperatures into the lower 40s Thursday and may
help in holding temperatures in the 40s through the weekend. The
gefs ensemble mean temperatures is less optimistic in terms of
warming trends, with temperatures holding in the mid to upper-30s
next Thursday onwards.

Frontogenetic forcing in the low-levels and a mid-level shortwave
will bring the chance for snow showers Monday into Tuesday.

Otherwise, lack of meaningful forcing will keep the bulk of the
extended period dry as mostly cloudy conditions persist.

Marine...

moderate southeast wind will build significant wave heights to
several freet along the eastern shores of the thumb into this
evening. The small craft advisory has been extended by an additional
few hours. Wind will become westerly tonight behind a cold front
with a few gusts to marginal gales possible as colder air spreads
across the waters Friday afternoon. Marginal gales will again be
possible behind another cold front Sunday into Monday.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Winter weather advisory until 10 am est Friday for miz047>049-
053>055-060>062.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Dg
update... ... .Dg
discussion... Sf am
marine... ... .Jvc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 6 mi30 min SSW 4.1 G 6 34°F 1012.2 hPa (-1.7)
AGCM4 26 mi42 min 35°F 46°F1011.4 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 48 mi42 min 35°F 1010.9 hPa

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI7 mi37 minSSW 44.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist34°F32°F92%1012.1 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI17 mi35 minS 47.00 miLight Rain34°F34°F100%1011.9 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI19 mi35 minSSW 35.00 miFog/Mist34°F32°F93%1011.5 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI24 mi35 minWSW 47.00 miOvercast34°F32°F96%1011.5 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4E6E7E7E6E7E5E9E7E6E6SE8E6E3E5E6SE6SE5SE4SE3SE3S5SW4SW4
1 day agoNW9
G20
W8NW8NW7NW5W3W3W6W4W3NW5NW8N7N4NE3SW3SE5SE6E5SE3E4E3E4SE6
2 days agoN6N6N5N5N5N7CalmNW6NW4NW7NW4NW7NW6NW7
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.