Sunrise 6:34 AM   Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 8:31 PM   Moonset 5:43 AM

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LCZ423 320 Am Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters - .
the areas affected include - . Detroit river - . Michigan waters of lake erie from detroit river to north cape mi - .
at 320 am edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds up to 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 nm northwest of bolles harbor of refuge to 9 nm south of north cape, moving northeast at 40 knots.
strong Thunderstorms will be near - . Monroe harbor, bolles harbor of refuge, north cape, luna pier, and detroit beach around 325 am edt. Stony point and woodland beach around 330 am edt. Estral beach and gibraltar around 340 am edt. Lake erie metropark harbor and detroit river light around 345 am edt. Elizabeth park marina around 350 am edt.
other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include woodland beach, stony point, gibraltar, estral beach, and detroit beach.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
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lat - .lon 4173 8345 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4217 8321 4219 8319 4218 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341 4172 8347

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 241043 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 643 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- A Freeze Warning is in effect for all of southeast MI tonight through early Thursday morning as temperatures dip into the mid to upper 20s.

- Dry conditions with a warming trend bring high temperatures to the 50s on Thursday and 60s on Friday.

- Showers are likely Friday night with windy and warm conditions this weekend. There is low confidence in shower and thunderstorm potential Saturday and Sunday.

AVIATION

MVFR stratus is in place across Southeast Michigan this morning as basal region of midlevel trough and associated deformation is slow to strip out. There is strong model signal for clearing skies by the mid afternoon. North wind today of 15 to 25 knots this morning will weaken to around 12 knots for the afternoon. Surface winds will slowly veer to the northeast and remain light tonight.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High in ceilings aob 5000 through the early afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 425 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

DISCUSSION...

A strong southward advancing cold front marked by a sharp northerly wind shift is approaching the Thumb and Tri-Cities this morning, driven by the departure of a mid-level trough axis. Temps will settle into the lower 30s (north) to lower 40s (south), setting the stage for a chilly late April day. Stratus will canopy the area within the active cold advection this morning and stifle early day warming, limiting high temp prospects to the 40s (north) and lower 50s (south). Some areas along the Lake Huron shoreline will likely top out in the upper 30s. Meanwhile, winds will remain brisk out of the north at around 15 to 25 mph this morning before gradually tapering off this afternoon. This keeps a wintry bite around with apparent temps holding in the 30s for much of the day. Dry air will eventually erode the stratus deck north to south midday, with sunshine and weaker winds then offering some relief.

Slow but steady mid-level height rebounds complement the dry advection through this evening with a ridge of sfc high pressure building in from the west. High confidence in sub freezing temps overnight into Wednesday morning given clear skies indicated by PWATs near the 1st percentile in NAEFS climo, very light winds, thermal trough overhead, and sfc dew points dropping into the teens/20s to create a very favorable radiational cooling environment. A significant portion of HRRR members bring a hard sub 28 degree freeze to most of the area north of the glacial ridge.
While a freeze like this is not uncommon for late April, the mild winter and spring brought an early start to the growing season which means impacts may be more pronounced and any sensitive vegetation will be at risk. A Freeze Warning is in effect from midnight through 8 AM.

The 850mb thermal trough remains overhead on Thursday, but ridging maintains sunny skies that help boost temps to the mid 50s for a high. The dry environment means another cool night Thursday night and interior areas may see lows near the freezing mark, but a widespread hard freeze does not look likely. Benign weather carries through much of Friday as the upper ridge axis passes over the Great Lakes. During this time a low will be deepening over the central Plains with its warm conveyor directed from the western Gulf up the Mississippi Valley. As the low reaches eastern NE late Friday and the ridge axis passes to our east, the warm advective wing will spread overhead and bring a round of showers Friday evening/night.
The LLJ veers through overnight, peaking near 50 kt with strong moisture transport bringing relatively high confidence in the showers. Lapse rates look poor in available guidance, but some embedded thunderstorms may be possible given relatively strong lift spreading in.

Saturday will see the warm sector take residence over the area with relatively low confidence on convective trends during this period.
Overall setup seems to favor drier conditions as mid-level ridging builds into the area which keeps the profile capped. The LLJ will remain positioned overhead which brings a strong southwest wind on Saturday, likely gusting in excess of 30 mph. 850mb temps rising to the lower teens C make high temps in the 70s likely. As the first low tracks across Lake Superior on Saturday night, a second low develops along the frontal zone draped across the central Plains.
This low takes a similar track to our west, ensuring we stay within the warm sector through the weekend. Convective trends carry relatively low predictability into Sunday with capping concerns, but higher confidence in showers/storms arises on Monday as the cold front moves through.

MARINE...

Brisk northerly flow in the wake of the earlier cold front will commence this morning. There also remains a low-end potential for gusts to gales while lapse rates steepen and forecast soundings are well-mixed once stronger LLJ winds clip central Lake Huron.
Hazardous conditions for small craft can be expected on Lake Huron today. Gradient winds trend lower midday Wednesday before high pressure starts building into the Great Lakes. More favorable marine conditions are expected Thursday with sustained ridging until Friday. Unsettled weather returns Saturday, dependent on trajectory of a large low pressure system ejecting from The Plains.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Thursday for MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-422- 441>443.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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