Sunday, May26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Detroit, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 8:58PM Sunday May 26, 2019 11:20 PM EDT (03:20 UTC) Moonrise 1:28AMMoonset 12:01PM Illumination 43% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ422 /o.exp.kdtx.ma.w.0004.000000t0000z-190523t1145z/ 735 Am Edt Thu May 23 2019
.the special marine warning will expire at 745 am edt... The affected areas were... Lake st. Clair open lake (u.s. Portion)... Port sanilac to port huron mi... St. Clair river... The Thunderstorms have moved out of the area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4289 8247 4262 8252 4255 8259 4254 8266 4237 8283 4235 8293 4236 8294 4237 8296 4243 8290 4253 8290 4265 8284 4271 8268 4269 8260 4268 8260 4263 8255 4264 8254 4299 8246 4314 8252 4318 8241 4312 8236 time...mot...loc 1135z 240deg 61kt 4323 8229 4267 8215
LCZ422 Expires:201905231145;;325668 FZUS73 KDTX 231135 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 735 AM EDT Thu May 23 2019 LCZ422-460-LHZ443-231145-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Detroit city, MI
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location: 42.38, -83.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 262322
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
722 pm edt Sun may 26 2019

Aviation
Negative differential cyclonic vorticity advection and modest deep
column cold air advection will allow a surface ridge to expand
southward throughout all of the state. A light easterly or weak
variable surface wind is anticipated for all TAF sites tonight.

Substantial 825-600mb dry air advection is ongoing and will cause
clouds to strip out during the course of the evening. There is some
question about how long the lowVFR deck will take to scour out at
the detroit terminals. Otherwise, quiet conditions late tonight and
much of Monday with high cloud increasing with time. Next
precipitation chances with convective complex is expected to hold
off until approximate 03z Tuesday.

For dtw... LowVFR clouds to start the period but scouring out this
evening. Light east wind or light and variable. Light east wind
Monday. Shower and thunderstorm activity expected after 03z Tuesday.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* high for cigs AOB 5kft at start of the period. Some uncertainty
with timing of loss of 5 kft agl cloud.

Prev discussion
Issued at 357 pm edt Sun may 26 2019
discussion...

bands of showers with scattered thunderstorms in progress across the
area south of i-69 are supported by the frontal zone that has been
nearly stalled over south sections of the region since this morning.

The entrance region of the upper jet over the central great lakes,
connected to the MCV remnants over the ohio valley, provided the
background larger scale forcing for convection with a strong mid
level fgen signal indicated in 850-700 mb model theta-e over southern
lower michigan. This favored mostly elevated showers and thunderstorms
during the morning through mid afternoon with cooler outflow helping
nudge the surface front farther south to the ohio border where
surface based convection became favored. Outside of the rain areas,
extensive cloud cover has limited surface based instability to less
than 1500 j kg and MLCAPE to less than 1000 j kg within a weakening
wind profile. Other than some potential for locally heavy rainfall,
which has been manageable so far, just backed surface wind near the
front and along the lakeshores has been about the only concerning
aspect of the storm environment. This generally remains the case
until the frontal support moves south east of the border by early
evening.

The upper level jet MAX and MCV short wave connection supporting the
pattern today moves eastward tonight and leaves still fast but
increasingly confluent flow aloft over the western and central great
lakes. This helps build surface high pressure southward across lower
michigan and push the front more convincingly into the ohio valley.

Surface dewpoint is already settling into the upper 40s to lower 50s
in the saginaw valley and northern thumb and set to drop farther into
the 40s late tonight as a measure of the air mass change. The
incoming high pressure also promotes a clearing trend overnight
through Monday morning with some radiational cooling helping low
temps reach the mid 40s thumb to lower 50s detroit metro. Fog
potential is reduced by surface dry advection through the night.

Memorial day turns out ok as a cool morning becomes a mild afternoon
with increasing high clouds. Light easterly onshore wind limits
temperatures to the 50s along the lake huron shoreline but highs in
the lower 70s are reachable inland across the area. The increasing
high clouds are a precursor to another round of unsettled weather
arriving Monday night into Tuesday driven by the next low pressure
system in the plains that reinvigorates the ohio valley front.

Powerful nocturnal low level jet development is projected to drive
multiple convective complexes from the midwest into lower michigan
on a plume of high end moisture transport. The convection will be
elevated as the surface front trails to the west and south through
Tuesday morning, however the potential for heavy rainfall will be as
much in play as allowed by the predictability of convection.

Confidence is reasonable enough at this stage of the forecast to
include a mention of flooding potential in the hwo and maintain a
mention in the remainder of the messaging suite for Monday night and
Tuesday.

The extended forecast period will be characterized by seasonable
temperatures and additional episodes of active weather. Strong
height falls seen in previous model runs now look to hold off across
the region until possibly Thursday, but still a good chance for
showers and storms Wednesday as shortwave energy and possible
convective remnants ripple over a west-east oriented frontal
boundary. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day of the week for most
with highs in the mid to upper 70s as warm air is advected in from
the southwest, especially in the southern counties.

An upper trough will deepen over the great lakes on Thursday,
leading to continued chances for showers and thunderstorms. Some
storms may be strong given slightly higher shear over the area and
better forcing focus along a cold front. High pressure then builds
in, leading to quiet and dry weather for Friday and much of
Saturday. More active weather then returns for the late weekend as
longwave troughing expands overhead and a cold front pushes through.

Marine...

current thunderstorm threat across lakes erie and st clair will wind
down this evening with high pressure then settling across the great
lakes. Light northerly winds will become northeast by Monday morning
persisting through the day. The threat of thunderstorms returns
Monday evening with additional thunderstorm chances both Tuesday and
Wednesday. Light to moderate winds prevail throughout this time with
seasonable significant wave heights under 3 feet.

Hydrology...

several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will affect the region
through the coming week. First an organized mid-level wave will
transit the central great lakes region late Monday bringing showers
and thunderstorms during Monday night. There is some potential for
this activity to organize into a band of moderate to heavy rain
capable of producing basin average rainfall totals of at least one
half inch.

A low pressure system will then set up over the central plains early
in the week with the associated warm front laying out somewhere near
the mi oh border. Several clusters of storms will likely eject out
of the low and track along this front through the middle of the week
possibly passing over southern mi before the low itself then tracks
through the great lakes.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Cb
discussion... Bt tf
marine... ... .Drk
hydrology... .Drk
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 13 mi21 min NE 5.1 G 6 58°F 1018.6 hPa (+0.3)
45147 - Lake St Clair 23 mi21 min NNW 1.9 G 1.9 56°F 56°F1017.5 hPa (+0.4)
AGCM4 35 mi39 min 53°F 51°F1017.9 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 39 mi81 min NNE 8 G 8 59°F
45165 48 mi21 min NE 3.9 G 3.9 60°F 62°F1 ft56°F
TWCO1 48 mi21 min ENE 6 G 9.9 61°F 1014.6 hPa (+0.9)58°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 51 mi33 min ENE 5.1 G 7 1017.9 hPa

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI5 mi28 minN 010.00 miFair54°F51°F90%1018.1 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI12 mi26 minN 010.00 miFair56°F52°F86%1019 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI16 mi28 minN 010.00 miFair58°F53°F84%1018.1 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI20 mi26 minN 010.00 miFair53°F52°F96%1017.9 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI22 mi86 minN 012.00 miA Few Clouds56°F54°F94%1017.7 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7SW6SW5W5W5SW5W3NW5E11NE7E5N3NE5E4CalmE3E4NE5E6E6NE4CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSE6SE6SE4SE6E3SE4CalmE4SE5S6SW9SW9W17
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2 days agoW5W4W4NW3W4W4W4W4NW3N4N5NW4SE10SE5E5E7E5E7SE9E6NE6E5E6SE6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.