Tuesday, May22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Detroit, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 8:56PM Tuesday May 22, 2018 3:18 PM EDT (19:18 UTC) Moonrise 12:39PMMoonset 1:41AM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LCZ422 558 Pm Edt Sat May 19 2018
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters... The areas affected include... NEarshore and open waters from port sanilac to port huron mi... St. Clair river... At 556 pm edt...doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms located along a line from near lakeport to 11 nm west of st. Clair...moving northeast at 20 knots. The activity will be capable of wind gusts near 30 knots and heavy rainfall. Strong Thunderstorms will affect southern lake huron north of port huron and the st clair river north of marine city up to port huron between 615 and 700 pm. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4296 8242 4299 8242 4280 8247 4276 8247 4272 8248 4270 8249 4270 8250 4281 8249 4283 8249 4284 8247 4290 8247 4300 8242 4297 8241
LCZ422 Expires:201805192300;;218715 FZUS73 KDTX 192158 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 558 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2018 LCZ422-LHZ443-464-192300-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Detroit city, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.38, -83.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kdtx 221739
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
139 pm edt Tue may 22 2018

Aviation
Plume of deep low level moisture will remain entrenched across the
southeast mi airspace through the latter half of the day as a broad
area of low pressure slowly transits the region. This will maintain
a high coverage of low stratus. Daytime heating will slowly lift
cloud bases with time, with recent observational trends suggesting
predominant ifr level restrictions for the afternoon period. Narrow
window this afternoon under modest instability for a few showers to
emerge, mainly ptk south into the detroit corridor. Greater
thunderstorm potential will reside across northwest ohio. Drier air
will slowly infiltrate the region this evening in the wake of the
exiting low. This will bring a gradual clearing trend early tonight.

This environment may support some degree of fog development
Wednesday morning, given residual moist near surface conditions
and a light wind field.

For dtw... Low stratus remains prevalent through the early evening
period. Slow improvement in CIGS with time, but with bases holding
below 5000 ft. Greater tsra potential expected to hold along south
of the ohio border through the afternoon, precluding any defined
mention at the terminal. Clearing skies early tonight, supporting
possible vsby restrictions in fog as winds remain light Wednesday
morning.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less today.

* very low in thunderstorms through late afternoon.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1133 am edt Tue may 22 2018
update...

minor adjustments to pops through the afternoon to time the possible
showers and thunderstorms. Things are lining up pretty much as
expected so far. The circulation in the base of the upper level
trough can be seen now on satellite spinning over southern lake mi
with the mid level jet MAX surging eastward just to the south.

Surface cold front now taking shape as the surface low drifts into
southern ontario. Rap continues to advertise 500-1000 j kg of mlcape
lifting north into extreme southern mi supported by most recent spc
mesoanalysis. Visible satellite shows clouds thinning in the
developing dry slot warm sector just ahead of the mid level trough.

This will add some destabilization to the low levels adding to low
level wind shear and moisture pooling. Most model soundings show a
cap around 700mb which will try to suppress convection so will have
to see how fast we can warm up with thinning clouds and southerly
warm air advection. Best chance of storms remains south of m59, with
a slight chance farther north. Do not expect storms to be severe but
could see heavy rain as pwats are around 1.25".

Prev discussion...

issued at 315 am edt Tue may 22 2018
discussion...

latest water vapor imagery shows upper level wave circulation
tracking over northern lake michigan, with corresponding mid level
jet (500 mb) of 45 knots tracking through southeast michigan around
noon. A pool of low level moisture seen coming out of northern
indiana (see NAM 850-700 mb theta-e surface dew pts) looks like it
will be sufficient to generate at least scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms as mlcapes reach and exceed 500 j kg toward
the ohio border (per local probabilistic guidance), as surface winds
flip around to light southwest and surface dew pts climb above 60
degrees south of m-59. The low levels (925 mb) look to remain fairly
saturated low clouds, but with the surface boundary straddling the
heart of the cwa, and differences in wind direction, probably looking
at highs ranging from 65 (north) to 75 (south). If instability does
ramp up a little more than expected, there is concern for locally
heavy rain as inland inverted surface trough arches back and
hovers persists this afternoon over central sections of the state, as
good push of dry air does not look to occur until toward 00z.

However, preference is toward a more muted response such as 00z hires
arw rap.

Surface ridging building in tonight could set the stage for fog
development, but there is some uncertainty whether low clouds
are going to fully dissipate in a timely fashion.

A significant warmup will occur over the end of the work week, as
pronounced 500 mb upper level ridge over the mississippi river
valley slowly advances east, with the ridge axis arriving Friday
morning in a slightly flattened weakened mode. None-the-less,
strengthening low level southwest winds will advect a lot of warmth
into lower michigan, and 850 mb temps of 16+ c will supports temps
well into the 80s on Friday, as frontal boundary looks to be
sufficiently north over the northern great lakes.

Height falls over the weekend as upper level low coming out of the
northern rockies gradually slides into the western great lakes. Bulk
of 12z euro ensembles keep CWA within the warm sector on Saturday,
supporting temps still in the 80s with good chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Obviously, timing of any thunderstorm complex during
the mid day hours could easily short circuit temps.

Marine...

weak low pressure will track across southern lower michigan and lake
erie today, leading to generally light and variable winds across
lakes st clair and erie. On lake huron, light east-northeast winds
will back to the north-northwest during the afternoon and evening as
the low advances into the eastern great lakes. High pressure will
expand into the region from the west tonight into Wednesday. This
high will reside over the region through Thursday, providing
generally light and variable winds.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Mr
update... ... .Drk
discussion... Sf
marine... ... .Sc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 13 mi79 min ENE 6 G 8 60°F 1015.2 hPa (-0.4)
AGCM4 35 mi49 min 69°F 1014.3 hPa
45165 48 mi29 min 5.8 G 5.8 69°F 67°F65°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 51 mi49 min WNW 8.9 G 13 75°F 1014.3 hPa64°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
Last
24hr
NE6
G13
E13
E15
G20
E12
G18
E12
G16
E14
G17
E11
G15
E9
G14
E8
G13
E5
E1
NW1
W1
W2
SW3
W5
SW4
G8
W6
G9
W3
NW4
S3
SW4
NW9
G12
W11
G15
1 day
ago
NE3
E9
SE4
E6
E8
E7
G10
E7
E7
E8
E7
G10
E8
NE6
NE6
G10
NE8
G11
E10
G13
E11
G15
E11
G14
E11
G15
E11
G15
E11
G16
E11
G14
NE9
G12
NE9
G12
NE11
G14
2 days
ago
SW9
G12
SW7
G11
SW8
G12
W4
G8
NW7
G11
W7
G10
W3
W7
G10
W8
G11
W6
G10
NW6
NW6
G11
NW6
NW7
NW6
G9
NW6
G10
N2
E4
G7
E4
E4
E9
NE5
NE4
G7
E7

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI5 mi26 minVar 69.00 miOvercast71°F60°F68%1013.7 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI12 mi24 minW 9 G 1510.00 miOvercast73°F61°F68%1014.9 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI16 mi26 minW 76.00 miOvercast with Haze74°F62°F67%1013.9 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI20 mi24 minS 64.00 miFog/Mist67°F63°F87%1013.9 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI22 mi83 minENE 65.00 miFog/Mist67°F66°F100%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
Last 24hrE8E6E4NE3E3NE5E7E6E4CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmW3W3W3W7W7SW45--6
1 day agoNE3E9E4NE6N6E6E6NE5E3CalmN3N5N3N5NE6CalmE8E4E6E9SE9E8
G17
E6E10
2 days agoSW4S8SW5S4W9NW6W6W6NW8NW7W5NW6N5E8NE6CalmN6NE4N9NE7N5N3N5N4

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (15,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.