Thursday, January17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Detroit, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:56AMSunset 5:28PM Thursday January 17, 2019 12:09 PM EST (17:09 UTC) Moonrise 2:13PMMoonset 4:04AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ422 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0041.000000t0000z-181017t1615z/ 1145 Am Edt Wed Oct 17 2018
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Harbor beach to port sanilac mi... Lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac 5nm off shore to us/canadian border... Lake huron from port sanilac to port huron 5nm off shore to us/canadian border... Port sanilac to port huron mi... St. Clair river... The showers have moved out of the warned area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters. However, waterspouts will continue to be possible the remainder of the day. Lat...lon 4357 8213 4300 8242 4297 8241 4295 8243 4300 8247 4322 8257 4362 8263 4364 8213 time...mot...loc 1432z 311deg 26kt 4287 8193
LCZ422 Expires:201810171554;;903658 FZUS73 KDTX 171545 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1145 AM EDT WED OCT 17 2018 LCZ422-LHZ442-443-463-464-171554-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Detroit city, MI
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location: 42.38, -83.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 171654
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1154 am est Thu jan 17 2019

Aviation
Widespread upstream ifr will lift into the area this afternoon
coincident with warm advection associated with a weak passing wave.

Widespread light snow will lift into the detroit area and persist
from about 20z-02z during which time one half inch of accumulation
will be possible from kptk south. Southeast wind will briefly become
calm to variable as low pressure lifts through the detroit area
before emerging out of the wnw late tonight.

For dtw... Light snow onset still on target around 20z. Peak
intensity 21-00z before tapering off by 02z.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* high for cig AOB 5kft
*high for ptype snow

Prev discussion
Issued at 354 am est Thu jan 17 2019
discussion...

upper level clouds are moving in over lower michigan ahead of a weak
shortwave and associated low pressure system tracking out of the
central plains. This system will be driven eastward under westerly
flow aloft as the base of a broader trough rotates over the hudson
bay. Generally light snowfall will accompany this system as it passes
with better snow banding along the northern end of this low pressure
system moving across lower michigan. Leading edge of snowfall will
start working into lenawee county by late morning with bulk of the
snowfall falling after 12pm into the evening. Amounts will be
generally less than an inch with higher end amounts along the oh mi
border with less accumulation potential north of the m-59 corridor.

A weak frontal boundary will slide through michigan in the wake of
the passes system to the south and result in chicanes for light snow
showers tonight.

Subtle height rises under northerly flow will be brief, but it will
bring fairly quiet conditions on Friday. The arctic high pressure
will be looming over the north great lakes region. With the colder
air off to the north, high temperatures on Friday will come in
around the upper 20s and lower 30s.

Main story this weekend is a more impactful winter system bringing
snowfall late Friday night through Saturday and the arrival of very
cold temperatures. A piece of energy diving out of the pac NW and
undergo lee cyclogenesis across the southern plains interacting with
a potent subtropical jet. This system will be lifting northward
through the oh tn valleys while leading edge of arctic front begins
slowly advancing across michigan. The lead fgen band ahead of the
main surface low will be responsible for the snowfall encroaching
upon the area late Friday night into Saturday. Trends with this
system have been for a more southern progressive track of the
surface low and better phasing of this wave with the northern jet
more towards the northeastern us. Thus, keeping the better theta-e
and highest QPF amounts to the south and east. There still remains
some differences in forecast QPF amounts, which will make the
difference in total snowfall as snow ratios will be around 20:1.

The greater snowfall potential would focus amounts generally south
of m-59 where several inches will be possible. The higher snowfall
potential in the 3-6 inch range will be possible along the oh mi
border if higher QPF ends up verifying, so fine tuning of the qpf
will be needed as we near the event. Leading edge of the arctic air
will already be pushing in under northeast flow during the day
Saturday, bringing high temperatures in the teens to 20s.

The back edge of snowfall will taper off Saturday night as the
system pushes into the northeastern us leaving some lake effect snow
potential off of lake huron under ne-n flow across the thumb into
Sunday morning. The coldest arctic air this winter season will then
release into michigan Sunday afternoon. Temperatures at 850 mb will
tank to around -25c by Sunday evening. Gusty northerly winds during
the day will make for a brisk day with high temperatures in the
teens and wind chill values below zero all day Sunday.

Late Sunday night and Monday morning will experience the lowest wind
chills from this arctic surge with wind chills bottoming out in the
negative teens by around midnight and continuing to around daybreak.

Thermal trough containing the arctic air over the region will be
pulled to the east as the axis pivots into the eastern great lakes.

High pressure will then build into the central great lakes keeping
things dry, but cold weather remains. High temperatures struggle to
recover Monday and only reach back into the teens with morning low
temperatures of around 0 degrees.

Slight recovery to more normal temperatures in the 20s and low 30s
for Tuesday with exiting arctic air to the east. There will be a
chance for another shot at snowfall during the mid week time frame.

Troughing digging across the central us will also bring another
opportunity for arctic air to spill through northern plains and
eventually into the great lakes.

Marine...

winds will become southerly today as surface high pressure retreats
to quebec and portions of the northeast united states. Wind gusts
will remain largely below 20 knots. A broad and weak surface trough,
with a pair of low pressure centers will pass directly through the
great lakes region by this evening. A cold front will eventually
push down through lake huron Friday morning. Winds will respond to
the northwest with winds remaining at 25 knots or less. A stronger
winter storm system will track along the tennessee river valley this
weekend. A long duration of northeasterly winds is anticipated both
Saturday and Sunday. Marine headlines will likely be needed for both
lake st clair and the michigan waters of lake erie during that
timeframe.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Jvc
discussion... Aa
marine... ... .Cb
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 13 mi69 min ESE 15 G 18 27°F 1023.4 hPa (-1.3)
AGCM4 35 mi39 min 27°F 34°F1022.3 hPa
TWCO1 48 mi29 min ESE 12 G 14 30°F 1018.8 hPa25°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 51 mi39 min E 6 G 7 28°F 1021.4 hPa21°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI5 mi16 minESE 910.00 miOvercast29°F19°F69%1022.7 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI12 mi13 minE 710.00 miOvercast29°F19°F66%1022 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI16 mi16 minSE 68.00 miOvercast29°F19°F69%1022.6 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI20 mi13 minESE 810.00 miOvercast31°F24°F78%1021.3 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI22 mi73 minESE 1210.00 miOvercast28°F23°F82%1023.7 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9NW10N8NW7N6N5NE6NE3E6E5E3E3E3SE4E3E4E5E5E7SE7SE7SE10SE11E9
1 day agoSW12W11SW9SW11SW9SW13SW13
G19
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W11W11SW9SW8SW12SW8W9W7NW6N14
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2 days agoW5SW5W5SW6S8S7S3SW5SW6W3CalmW3W3W4W5SW5SW8SW8SW7SW8SW8SW9SW11SW11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.