Sunday, March26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Gurnee, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 7:13PM Sunday March 26, 2017 12:32 AM CDT (05:32 UTC) Moonrise 6:06AMMoonset 5:43PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 916 Pm Cdt Sat Mar 25 2017
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 am cdt Sunday...
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..North winds 15 to 25 kt becoming east. Areas of dense fog. Periods of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft toward daybreak.
Sunday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 kt becoming south 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Areas of fog in the morning, then patchy fog in the afternoon. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Patchy fog in the evening. Slight chance of rain in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 ft subsiding to around 1 ft after midnight.
Monday..North winds around 5 kt becoming northeast 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Chance of rain. Waves around 1 ft.
LMZ740 Expires:201703261100;;084155 FZUS53 KLOT 260216 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 916 PM CDT SAT MAR 25 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN WAVES ARE PROVIDED AS A RANGE OF SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES, ALONG WITH THE AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 10 PERCENT OF THE WAVES WHICH WILL OCCASIONALLY BE ENCOUNTERED. LMZ740>742-261100-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gurnee, IL
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location: 42.38, -87.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 260227
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago/romeoville, il
927 pm cdt Sat mar 25 2017

Update
926 pm cdt
the warm front is just south of the forecast area and is still
expected to push north as the surface low shifts northeast.

Periods of showers will continue through the night. Have much
lower confidence in thunderstorms through tonight, but soundings
continue to feature weak elevated cape. Therefore, left a slight
chance of thunderstorms in through the night. Keep tweaking temps
as temps are not warming as quickly as expected probably because
the front is further south than expected. Winds will continue to
veer east resulting in continued lower temps along the lake.

Continue to carry patchy fog and overcast conditions. Not
expecting dense fog unless clouds scatter out especially closer to
the front.

Jee

Short term
300 pm cdt
through tonight...

expansive, stacked upper low center is sprawled across missouri
this mid-afternoon with a plume of 1-1.25 inch precipitable waters
nosed ahead of this feature into our area. This moisture has
helped to fill back in the thicker clouds. There are some areas
of thinning and agitated cumuliform clouds across west central
illinois, but in and immediately upstream of the cwa, any showers
are rooted aloft. The earlier slight concern of some storms moving
over the boundary and possibly becoming a bit feisty is even less
of a concern in our CWA given the thickened cloud cover impeding
any low-level instability.

In response to a small scale disturbance lifting northward near
st. Louis on satellite water vapor imagery, would expect showers
to continue to show an uptick across central illinois and moving
into the CWA during the rest of the afternoon into early evening.

While the northward-oriented upper jet ahead of the low does
weaken some tonight, it still should support lift atop continued
moisture transport for showers to develop. Convective-allowing
model solutions support this, with clusters of showers and some
hints of isolated thunder moving over at times throughout the
night. Most unstable CAPE values of a few hundred j/kg look
probable, especially in the south late this afternoon into
tonight. Sometimes with closed upper lows at night too, it seems
like there can be a holding steady of isolated thunder when
otherwise it would dissipate.

The surface boundary extends from near lacon to kankakee and to
near valparaiso. This should not move much further north this
evening. Temperatures may inch up a few degrees north of the
boundary, while will slowly fall south of the boundary, so all in
all not much of a change for tonight. The northeast flow north of
the boundary may drag some thicker fog into northeast illinois,
including chicago. Confidence on this is low though, and if the
boundary does inch a little further northward, it may increase the
potential for dense fog. Also apart from marine fog, there could
be some fog development areawide near and north of the boundary,
but with stratus already present that will likely be dominant over
dense fog.

Mtf

Long term
252 pm cdt
Sunday through Saturday...

main forecast concerns for the longer term forecast period will
continue to be timing of a series of systems bringing periodic
chances for pcpn to the region as well as temperature trends.

The latest guidance continues to indicate a series of southern
stream systems lifting out of the swrn CONUS and tracking across the
region. The models remain relatively consistent on this trend,
though some differences in the track remain, with the gfs
trending a little south of the nam/ecmwf, the general idea of the
associated sfc low lifting tracking from the middle mississippi
valley and across NRN il/srn wi tomorrow remains consistent with
previous runs. As the low tracks slowly to the northeast, an
associated warm that is pushing nwd through il/in today will be
north of the cwa, the warmer air overspreading the region today
will remain in place through the day on Sunday, allowing
temperatures to rebound back into the lower 60s. Instability will
be on the increase in advance of the system and at least some
partial clearing along with forcing from the sfc low and mid-level
shortwave will keep some chance for thunderstorms over portions
of the area through the day tomorrow. Generally expect the greater
chances for TS to be near the greater forcing of the sfc low/mid-
level shortwave. For timing, expect that the most favorable window
of opportunity for TS will be through late morning or early
afternoon, with the system lifting to the northeast durg the
afternoon hours. There should be a grief lull in pcpn Sunday
night as weak shortwave ridging crosses the region in advance of
the next system. The models are in a little better agreement on
the track and timing of the next system. With strong high pressure
building out of central canada and into the NRN plains/upper
mississippi valley, the track of this system should be more to the
south, through SRN il/in and the ohio valley. The most widespread
pcpn with this system Monday into Monday night should be over
portions of the area south of the i-80 corridor, but there should
still be some light rain over the NRN portions of the CWA as well.

Temperatures on Monday should still trend higher than normal,
with much of the area seeing temps in the upper 50s to lower 60s,
but winds on Monday should trend toward nely through the day,
which would keep the far NRN portions of the CWA and the lakefront
a bit cooler, as flow turns off of the cool lake michigan waters.

Lakefront locations should should see temperatures only in the
upper 40s to lower 50s. High pressure will then spread east across
the upper mississippi valley and the great lakes region through
midweek, keeping generally northerly winds in place through much
of next week. The temperature trend through next week should be
for warmer conditions inland and cooler near the lake. As high
dominates the region through midweek, conditions should generally
be dry. The next significant chance for pcpn will not come until
late next week as another SRN stream system lifts out of the swrn
conus.

Aviation
For the 00z tafs...

ifr/lifr ceilings continue to be the main aviation concern into
Sunday, with fog/drizzle and persistent northeast wind.

Surface low pressure continues to drift northeast across central
missouri, with a nearly stationary frontal boundary extending
northeast across northern il and in roughly along a bmi-okk line.

North of the front, cool, northeast winds continue to keep low
levels saturated, with widespread ifr/lifr conditions across
northern il/wi. Little change is expected overnight as the
surface low continues to track slowly northeast along the front
into Sunday morning. Some gradual lowering of CIGS into solid lifr
category is expected, with with periods of showers/drizzle. The
front is expected to lift north across the terminals Sunday
morning/midday, with improvement of CIGS into MVFR range depicted
in most guidance. Mid-level lapse rates are not very steep, though
appear sufficient to produce isolated thunder across portions of
the region overnight/early Saturday, though coverage is expected
to be too low for inclusion in tafs.

Winds, which should settle from nne to more ene tonight, becoming
light/variable for a time as the low comes across the area Sunday
midday/afternoon before shifting wsw.

Ratzer

Marine
300 pm cdt
winds are trending to easterly today with speeds up to 30 kt over
much of the lake as low pressure over missouri slowly moves
across the mid mississippi valley tonight. Hazardous conditions
for small craft will persist through tonight, mainly for the
illinois nearshore waters in the persistent east flow. As the low
then tracks north through illinois on Sunday and central lake
michigan Sunday night, anticipate that speeds will diminish to
the 10 to 20 kt range. High pressure is expected to build across
the upper great lakes region Tuesday through Thursday setting up
generally north to northeast winds over the lake with more
moderate wind speeds.

Lot watches/warnings/advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory... Il nearshore waters until 5 pm Sunday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 7 mi52 min NNE 14 G 18
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 16 mi32 min NNE 15 G 17 38°F 1015.9 hPa (-1.0)
FSTI2 32 mi92 min N 8
OKSI2 36 mi92 min E 5.1
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 38 mi42 min E 6 G 7 45°F 45°F
CNII2 40 mi32 min NNE 4.1 G 7 44°F
JAKI2 46 mi92 min NE 4.1
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 46 mi42 min NNE 15 G 16 38°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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-12
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Last
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NW11
G16
NW12
G18
NW11
G17
NW10
G16
NW11
G17
N10
G15
N11
G17
N9
G13
N9
G13
NW9
G13
NW12
G15
NW10
G13
N7
NW7
NW7
NW11
G16
NW14
G18
NW10
G14
NW7
NW4
NW4
E5
E8
G11
1 day
ago
S4
G7
SE5
S4
S4
G7
S7
G10
S10
G13
S15
G20
S12
G19
S12
G18
S8
G18
S18
G24
S18
G25
SW18
G30
SW10
G23
SW14
G25
SW12
G23
S14
G21
NW25
G32
NW19
G26
NW15
G20
N10
G17
NW11
G14
NW12
G23
N14
2 days
ago
SE6
SE9
G13
SE7
G14
SE10
G15
SE11
G15
SE7
G10
S10
G16
SE11
G15
SE11
G16
SE11
G17
SE14
G17
S13
G21
SE13
G16
SE11
G18
SE12
G17
SE9
G15
SE9
G13
S9
G14
S7
G11
S5
G8

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL5 mi37 minNE 91.25 miFog/Mist40°F39°F100%1015.9 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI15 mi39 minENE 91.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist41°F39°F96%1016.1 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL19 mi40 minNE 52.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist42°F42°F100%1015.5 hPa

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN11
G17
N13
G20
N12
G18
NE10NE8
G16
NE10NE12NE13
G21
NE17
G22
NE13
G20
NE13
G22
E14
G18
NE11
G19
NE10
G16
NE10NE8NE9NE9NE8NE11
G17
NE9N13NE11NE9
1 day agoS15S17SW16SW11SW14SW11SW9SW14
G20
4SW8SW18
G22
SW14
G22
SW14
G31
SW14
G26
W8
G17
NE10N14
G23
N16
G22
N10N12
G21
N10
G17
N10
G17
N9N9
G21
2 days agoE4E4SE7S6S11SE11SE9SE9
G18
SE12SE12
G19
S12
G20
SE14
G18
SE15SE15
G22
SE12
G19
SE11S8SE7SE15SE14S10E5SE5S6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.