Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Gurnee, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 4:29PM Saturday November 17, 2018 12:58 PM CST (18:58 UTC) Moonrise 3:02PMMoonset 1:32AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 914 Am Cst Sat Nov 17 2018
Rest of today..North winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 15 to 20 kt this afternoon. Snow ending by early afternoon. Snow may briefly mix with rain. Waves around 1 ft building to 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 20 kt. Slight chance of rain after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 kt becoming west in the afternoon. Partly Sunny in the morning then clearing. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sunday night..West winds 5 to 10 kt. Mostly clear. Waves 1 ft or less.
LMZ740 Expires:201811172215;;444827 FZUS53 KLOT 171514 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 914 AM CST Sat Nov 17 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-172215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gurnee, IL
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location: 42.38, -87.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 171747
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
1147 am cst Sat nov 17 2018

Short term
344 am cst
through today...

main concern for today will be snow trends associated with a weak
clipper tracking across the region today.

Latest radar imagery indicates that the heaviest and most widespread
snow associated with the clipper is over ERN ia nwrn il, as of
330am, with an area of more broken light snow extending across nrn
il and into nwrn in. As the main vort MAX and mid-level forcing
tracks ewd, expect that snowfall rates should increase, with the
main period of accumulating snow expected to be from arnd the
current time through arnd noon for the rockford area and arnd 5am-
1pm for the chicago metro area. Have not made any significant
changes to the going forecast, with the greatest accumulations still
expected to be along and north of the i-80 corridor. There is still
some concern for locally higher amounts due to localized banding,
even at this point, confidence in where any enhanced banding may set
up is still low and radar trends will need to be closely monitored
as this type of banding is difficult to pin down. Still expecting 1
to 2 inches of widespread snowfall north of the i-80 corridor.

Should any mesoscale banding develop, localized areas of 2 to 4
inches may be possible. There is a chance that pcpn could mix with
or change over to rain for far nern il nwrn in by early afternoon
ans the pcpn begins to wind down as temperatures climb into the
middle 30s. Temperatures across ncntrl nwrn il will likely remain
low enough to support all snow through the duration of the pcpn.

Also, the models continue to indicate that an elevated frontal zone
will develop this afternoon and then become stationary across the
southern portions of the CWA later this afternoon and into tonight.

This could bring some light snow accumulation to areas south of the
i-80 corridor. The elevated forcing is expected to be relatively
weak and sfc forcing should be minimal, so any accumulation
over the southern portions of the CWA should be light.

Long term
253 am cst
tonight through Friday...

for this period the items of interest are snow returning tonight,
mainly for south of i-80, with light accumulation probable through
early Sunday morning. Temperatures continue below normal for the
first half of the holiday week, reinforced with a cold front
Monday evening possibly bringing snow showers. The signal for
moderation late in the week continues, increasing confidence of
near normal temperatures for thanksgiving and the following day.

An active upper and mid level jet flow will remain over the area
tonight, along with an associated 600-850mb thermal gradient,
especially across the southern half of the cwa. Guidance is in
fairly good agreement with a low amplitude, sheared wave
traversing slowly along this gradient late this evening through
early Sunday morning. In response, the frontogenetic (f-gen)
circulation does increase again, though not as strong as this
morning. Nonetheless the response of lift with saturated epv (less
stability) will likely lead to light snow becoming more
widespread. While guidance has a lot of agreement in this
portrayal, there is modest spread in how far north the stronger
west- southwest to east-northeast f-gen axis orients. Some models
keep it across the far southern CWA as opposed to a couple
outlying northern solutions having it over i-80, which would
probably mean another dusting across the southern chicago metro.

While have leaned middle to south solutions still feel that some
brief light snow could reach just north of i-80. As the main wave
shifts east Sunday morning, chances over the southern CWA will
diminish from west to east.

This will be a high likelihood of precipitation but low qpf
event. Temperatures in the boundary layer will remain around
freezing due to the clouds, which combined with the thermal
profiles aloft should provide ratios a bit lower than climo. All
in all tonight's event looks like around a one inch event in the
maximum area, but if any stronger f-gen were to be more
persistent, some isolated two inch totals would be possible in
east central illinois to northwest indiana.

Otherwise for tonight, there is a consistent signal on high-
resolution guidance of a convergent axis across the southern part
of the lake that could serve as a focus for some light showers
into northwest indiana and possibly cook county chicago late this
evening into overnight. Low inversion heights, due to a limited
degree of cold advection, look to keep anything light and likely
below the ice nucleation zone. So if these showers materialize it
would be light rain showers with surface temperatures probably a
couple degrees above freezing.

It should take some time on Sunday pushing clouds eastward, which
lends some lower confidence on highs. If clearing does occur for
Sunday night, temperatures could certainly dip into the teens if
it remains clear. Some guidance brings in high level moisture
later in the night. This is associated with an upper short wave
that will drop over the great lakes Monday afternoon into the
evening, with another wave diving southeastward over the missouri
river valley. If these are shifted a little bit either way for
better focused forcing over the cwa, could realize a period of
snow showers later Monday.

After cool conditions Tuesday, moderation then looks to begin,
likely slowly on Wednesday but then more so into the holiday.

Right now guidance is in good agreement with a dry thanksgiving.

Southerly winds should be on the increase too given the forecast
pressure fields of a lee-side low and a strong high over the
northeast. The forecast near due south wind direction will
probably mean low clouds at some point, followed by rain chances
when the next wave approaches, at this time and likely to change
is later Friday (slight slowing trend the past 24 hours in
guidance).

Mtf

Aviation
For the 18z tafs...

snow is gradually winding down across the terminals early this
afternoon, with improvement from ifr to MVFR conditions expected.

With snow slowly moving southeast, gyy will be the last to
improve. Potential for light lake effect precip exists overnight,
with gyy and to a lesser extent mdw possibly seeing a period of
precip and lower vis cig conditions.

Mid-level disturbance was moving east and weakening across the
forecast area this mid-day. Local radar at 1740z depicts some
moderate banding still across the chicago area terminals, though
this should be translating east shortly, with improvement expected
at dpa ord within the hour. Transient bands of ifr light snow will
continue to shift slowly southeast, clearing mdw a little slower
and affecting gyy into late afternoon. Light snow rain mix will
likely persist south of the terminals into tonight, as another
less-amplified disturbance tracks across central il in. Winds are
shifting north behind the current disturbance, with speeds
increasing to 10-15 kt this afternoon through early evening.

As indicated above, models indicate the development of lake effect
clouds precip tonight, which is expected to impact gyy and
possibly shift as far west as mdw overnight. Forecast soundings
indicate fairly shallow inversion heights, and dry air aloft which
along with marginal surface temps may result in light rain or a
rain snow mix. Terminals northwest of mdw should not be affected.

Vfr conditions return area-wide by mid-morning Sunday. North winds
will back more westerly at less than 10 kt during the day.

Ratzer

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 7 mi79 min NNW 9.9 G 13 31°F
45186 8 mi39 min NNE 21 35°F 44°F1 ft
45187 11 mi39 min 35°F 43°F2 ft
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 16 mi59 min N 12 G 13 33°F 1026.4 hPa (+0.3)
FSTI2 32 mi119 min NNW 28 35°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 38 mi39 min N 16 G 17 37°F 35°F
CNII2 40 mi29 min N 8.9 G 13 35°F 33°F
JAKI2 46 mi119 min N 9.9 G 15 36°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 46 mi49 min N 7 G 8 33°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Last
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NE4
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G12
SE3
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL5 mi64 minN 89.00 miOvercast33°F28°F82%1027.2 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI15 mi66 minN 710.00 miOvercast33°F28°F82%1027.4 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL19 mi67 minNNW 51.25 miLight Snow Fog/Mist33°F30°F89%1027.4 hPa

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6SW5W5W5543SW4W3CalmW3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmN3NW3N5N4N6N8
1 day agoCalmCalmW33SW3W5SW9SW7SW8SW9SW10SW11S11SW12SW12SW9
G15
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G14
W45W5W8
G16
NW7NW74
2 days ago5NE4E3E4NE3CalmCalmN3CalmCalmSE5SE4SE5SE4SE5E3CalmE33E5E5E4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.