Monday, May20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Gurnee, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:23AMSunset 8:12PM Monday May 20, 2019 9:23 AM CDT (14:23 UTC) Moonrise 10:12PMMoonset 6:54AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 352 Am Cdt Mon May 20 2019
Today..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northeast 10 to 15 kt this afternoon. Mostly cloudy this morning then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 kt becoming northeast after midnight. Slight chance of showers after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Chance of showers. Waves building to 2 to 4 ft.
Tuesday night..East winds 20 to 25 kt becoming southeast. Slight chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft. A small craft advisory will likely be needed.
LMZ740 Expires:201905201500;;158554 FZUS53 KLOT 200852 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 352 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-201500-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gurnee, IL
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location: 42.38, -87.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 201146
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
646 am cdt Mon may 20 2019

Short term
357 am cdt
through Tuesday...

ridging aloft and a dome of high pressure at the surface will
support a quieter period today and tonight with cooler temperatures
and lower humidity before the pattern turns more active again from
Tuesday through the remainder of the week.

Despite today evolving to northerly flow on the east side of the
approaching ridge, compared to easterly flow on Tuesday as the ridge
axis drops into the central great lakes, today is looking to be the
milder of the two due to the colder air making its way into the area
Tuesday under the center of the ridge.

This tranquil period will be short lived as the potent low pressure
system responsible for today's tx ok high risk outlook from spc
lifts north across the plains. It now is looking more likely, well
ahead of the low on Tuesday morning, that strong convergence at
mid levels, under shortwave energy ejecting out of the upper
trough and riding the local ridge, will help support some morning
showers. This addition of likely pops for much of the area Tuesday
morning is a change from earlier forecasts but is bolstered by
considerable agreement in the nam GFS ecm guidance. Tuesday
afternoon continues to look drier though a few showers cannot be
ruled out.

Lenning

Long term
357 am cdt
Tuesday night through Sunday...

the more significant rainfall arrives Tuesday night into early
Wednesday as a warm conveyor plume of moisture moves across the area
ahead of the low. Pwat values peak in the 06-12z window but cape
values and forecast soundings suggest this will not be a prolonged
convective event but rather a relatively quick period of potentially
heavy rain. The potential for localized flash flooding will need to
be monitored but presently this is not looking like a situation with
widespread concerns.

Locally it is also looking like a less and less favorable setup for
severe storms, and certainly surface based severe weather, on
Tuesday afternoon and night despite strong kinematics. With the
cool easterly flow in place at the surface, forecast soundings show
a pronounced low level inversion and relatively warm air at
midlevels which would make for tall and skinny profiles with only
marginal midlevel lapse rates.

After the Tuesday night activity exits the area early Wednesday, the
transition to an extended period with a warmer and more humid
airmass begins in earnest. Models suggest the accompanying height
rises aloft will be interrupted by multiple pockets of shortwave
energy riding over the ridge and supporting periodic thunderstorm
chances for the remainder of the week. As has been mentioned in
multiple discussions, the timing of these is still too uncertain
to warrant attempts at picking the most favorable periods for
convective activity.

Lenning

Aviation
For the 12z tafs...

646 am... Forecast concerns include...

MVFR CIGS this morning.

Lake breeze wind shift this afternoon.

Showers Tuesday morning.

MVFR CIGS will continue this morning and should slowly lift into
lowVFR by early this afternoon. As a secondary cold front moves
across the area currently... A few sprinkles light showers will be
possible.

Northwest winds gusting to 20kts this morning will slowly turn
more northerly by late morning with gusts diminishing. A lake
breeze will then move inland early this afternoon shifting winds
northeasterly. Winds will shift light easterly tonight and then
increase into the 10-15kt range Tuesday morning.

Scattered showers are possible toward daybreak Tuesday morning
and then through the rest of the morning. There remains some
uncertainty for both coverage and location but trends support
prevailing showers after 12z. CIGS may lower toward MVFR by late
Tuesday morning. Cms

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory... In nearshore waters until 10 am Monday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 7 mi44 min NW 12 G 18 46°F
45186 8 mi24 min W 12 G 18 46°F 47°F1 ft
45187 11 mi24 min NW 12 G 18 46°F 46°F2 ft
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 16 mi84 min WNW 12 G 18 45°F 1015.2 hPa (+3.0)
45174 23 mi24 min NW 14 G 21 46°F 3 ft1017.3 hPa42°F
FSTI2 32 mi144 min WNW 15 48°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 38 mi34 min NW 13 G 14 48°F 39°F
CNII2 40 mi24 min W 11 G 15 48°F 37°F
JAKI2 46 mi144 min NNW 6 G 11 51°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 46 mi34 min NW 9.9 G 13 46°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Last
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S15
G24
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G18
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G20
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G23
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SW11
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S4
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G16
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G16
N5
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W13
G19
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S7
SE10
G14
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G14
N3
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G9
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G16
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N7
G12
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G21
N7
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G12
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G14
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G12
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NE4
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N7
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G10
NE4
NE5
E5
SE1

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL5 mi29 minNW 9 G 1710.00 miOvercast47°F36°F66%1016.4 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI15 mi31 minNW 11 G 1810.00 miMostly Cloudy47°F39°F77%1016.7 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL19 mi32 minNW 1410.00 miOvercast49°F37°F64%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW11
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G36
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SW12
G26
W9
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W12
G29
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W6
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W5W8
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NW7NW10
G24
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G21
NW9
G17
1 day agoS3CalmE6E6SE4S15
G25
S17
G24
SW16
G21
SW13
G23
S7NE8N6N6NE7NE7
G16
NE84CalmNE5E3E3SE3S8S8
2 days agoN9
G19
N8
G17
N9
G19
6N16
G26
N12
G24
NE11
G17
N15
G22
N7
G15
N5N5N7NE9NE8NE5N8N5NE4NE6NE5NE5NE5E4E5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.