Monday, December11, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Gurnee, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 4:20PM Monday December 11, 2017 4:41 PM CST (22:41 UTC) Moonrise 1:30AMMoonset 2:05PM Illumination 40% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 322 Pm Cst Mon Dec 11 2017
.gale warning in effect from 8 pm cst this evening through Tuesday morning...
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northwest winds 15 to 25 kt early this evening, then increasing to gales to 35 kt in the late evening and overnight. Chance of snow this evening. Freezing spray after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft.
Tuesday..Northwest gales to 35 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Freezing spray in the morning. Waves 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft subsiding to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt. Partly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft after midnight.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south in the afternoon. A chance of flurries in the morning, then chance of snow in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
LMZ740 Expires:201712120415;;747408 FZUS53 KLOT 112122 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 322 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-120415-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gurnee, IL
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location: 42.38, -87.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 112143
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
343 pm cst Mon dec 11 2017

Update 340 pm cst
we have contemplated an advisory for the snow band shifting into
chicago during the evening commute. Snow rates are up to an inch
per hour, but snow of this intensity will not last too long. For
now we will handle with an sps for the northern two tiers of
counties, so this will include northern cook, northern dupage,
kendall, and kane also. Total snow amounts up to 2 inches are
possible, and we have seen over an inch in parts of rockford
already.

Kmd
previous update follows... .

The frontogenetical band has setup across our area instead of
wisconsin. Fortunately some of this forcing is going into
saturating the atmosphere but also fighting a warmer column. There
are decent mid level lapse rates above this lower level
circulation, and this signal remains strong at least through the
early evening. Once the column saturates after an initial virga
period, accumulations up to an inch are favored across northern
and north central illinois. This signal holds itself right to
chicago, but then is forecast to weaken considerably, but do
expect a burst closer to chicago at least for a brief time.

Pavement temps will initially limit accums closer to chicago, but
expect a quick drop off in low level temps once the precip
arrives. Latest graphical nowcast issued around 230pm depicts the
message fairly well.

Kmd

Short term
156 pm cst
through Tuesday...

a compact vort MAX across eastern iowa will continue to dive
southeast into central illinois late this afternoon, then east
into indiana tonight. The associated surface low is pulling ahead
of the upper vort, and will quickly allow cooler air to filter
back in to the area. Warm advection ahead of these systems has
allowed temperatures to climb into the mid 30s north to the mid
40s across central illinois. There has been a persistent band of
mixed precipitation across iowa ahead of this feature, either as
some sleet or rain, but more predominantly snow. In our neck of
the woods, the precip virga has been coming out of a higher cloud
deck and thus some occasional non accumulating sleet has occurred.

As the surface low will move into indiana late this afternoon and
evening, a cold front will shift across the area. We are starting
to see a band form out ahead of the main forcing which is
beginning as virga but could quickly transition to snow and this
is happening out near freeport. As the better forcing approaches
north central illinois there could be a brief burst of snow which
could put down a quick few tenths of an inch of snow, maybe up to
an inch across the northern tier of counties. There could even be
a mix of sleet snow along the leading edge of the higher
reflectivity values east from winnebago to lake county il. The
narre rap have been fairly consistent in suggesting a narrow
window for several hours from 3-6pm near rfd and between roughly
5-8 pm across the chicago metro area where snow will likely be
falling. Better accumulation potential is near rfd as guidance
also suggests a weakening of the band as it gets closer to
chicago. Surface temperatures have certainly warmed such that when
precip arrives it may struggle initially to accumulate,
especially closer to the metro, but it is certainly possible for a
coating to a few tenths.

Afterwards, strong northwest winds will bring the core of the
cold air in. The mixed layer eventually gets into a better snow
production region where there could be some flurries overnight.

Tuesday will just be blustery and cold. Northwest winds of 15-25
mph will hold through the day, and highs will remain in the low
to mid 20s. At least there will be sunshine. More clouds will
remain in place across northwest indiana and over the lake.

Current wind forecasts would suggest lake effect potential is
higher just to our east.

Kmd

Long term
201 pm cst
Tuesday night through Monday...

the long range pattern remains active around the eastern north
america long wave trough. There is a surface low passing through
the region about every 24-36 hours. As such, there are several
precipitation chances, mainly snow as the precipitation type.

Temperature fluctuations will occur, similar to what we are seeing
today with the clipper passage, with any warming being fairly
short-lived.

The next clipper behind today's is expected to ride the same
baroclinic zone south-southeast into the region on Wednesday.

Ahead of this, depending on the speed in which the system's
clouds spread in, Tuesday night could have some single digit lows
in outlying areas. The clipper surface low path for Wednesday
would make sense to be close to today's, and could see it end up
inching a bit west too.

Continue the precipitation chances north and east on Wednesday,
and precipitation could have a similar evolution to today, just
with the system remaining stronger a tad further south resulting
in slightly better snow chances in parts of the northern and
eastern cwa. The same gradient, even tighter, and slope in snow
looks to exist. Given the quick system speed and low amplitude,
snow accumulation should again be limited but there is potential
for over an inch in northeast illinois and far northwest indiana.

Also, conceptually there could be brief rain graupel snow mix at
onset as the column saturates, but again will depend on how far
warm sector spreads into the area. While on the lower confidence
side with details with this given day 3, would not expect a major
shift or change in speed with this system.

The next system is forecast Thursday night into Friday and is a
weaker, broader, and slower moving feature on global guidance. As
such, the guidance blend has very little QPF and thus little for
chance mention. While at least flurries would seem like a good
likelihood, there could also be some snow showers.

Uncertainty grows into the weekend as the upper air pattern
briefly flattens over the area, yet still is indicated to be
disturbed. Both the GFS and ec for their past two solutions also
have shown some subtropical energy translating up the ohio river
valley late in the weekend. Very tricky to time that exactly from
this distance, and the temperature fluctuations with them.

Saturday looks like it has potential to get to the 40 mark plus
for a good part of the area, while Sunday looks cooler... At least
at this time.

Mtf

Aviation
For the 18z tafs...

sort of complicated forecast this afternoon and evening as low
pressure tracks through the area. The first issue is wind
directions, followed by precipitation type, timing, and duration,
and then focus shifts back to gusty NW winds.

The core of low pressure will pass just to the south of the
terminals, and then spread east of the area tonight. This will
cause SE winds to hold in the 8-11 kt period for a few hours in
the better pressure falls ahead of the low, then as winds shift
further to the e, expect some decrease in speeds. Warm advective
precipitation is attempting to occur farther upstream of the upper
level low across NE ia SE mn. Expect during the afternoon some
attempt to precipitate over the coming hours, but with drier low
levels expect this would be some light snow or sleet, non
accumulating. As the better forcing approaches rfd around 21-22z,
there could be a brief burst of snow which could put down a quick
coating of snow, possibly even a few tenths of an inch in a short
period. CIGS will fall to MVFR and vsby too, possibly briefly
ifr. As this snow axis shifts closer to the chicago terminals,
there appears to be some weakening to the stronger forcing, but
there is still a small window for ord mdw in the 0z-02z time
frame for a quick coating of snow, medium confidence on timing.

Later this evening there could be a few lingering snow showers,
more so wind driven flurries. CIGS will eventually head back to
vfr. Expect NW winds to exceeds 20-25 kt from a 330-340 direction
after 3z or so at least for a few hours if not longer.

Kmd

Marine
305 pm cst
concerns for the open waters of the lake are north-northwest
gales tonight and through Tuesday as low pressure passes east and
strengthens. The gales should slowly ease into Tuesday evening.

Weak ridging will move across the lake on Wednesday morning and
behind this winds will briefly turn southwest. The next low
pressure will drop southeast just to the west of the lake on
Wednesday, and behind this low the winds will turn north-
northeast. It is possible waves briefly build to small craft
advisory criteria along the illinois and indiana shore during
Thursday. Winds will show fluctuations in direction and at times
some gusty speeds Friday into the weekend with the passage of more
clipper systems.

Mtf

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... Lakeshore flood advisory... Inz002... Midnight Tuesday to 3 pm
Tuesday.

Lm... Gale warning... Lmz740-lmz741-lmz742... 8 pm Monday to 9 am
Tuesday.

Gale warning... Lmz743-lmz744-lmz745... 8 pm Monday to 3 pm
Tuesday.

Gale warning... Lmz777-lmz779... 8 pm Monday to 8 pm Tuesday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 7 mi62 min NNW 2.9 30°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 16 mi42 min NW 2.9 G 2.9 33°F 1006.1 hPa (-0.0)
FSTI2 32 mi102 min SSE 4.1 37°F
OKSI2 36 mi102 min ESE 6 39°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 38 mi22 min SSE 5.1 G 6 38°F 30°F
CNII2 40 mi12 min Calm G 6 36°F 29°F
JAKI2 46 mi102 min NNE 2.9 38°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 46 mi32 min WNW 4.1 G 6 33°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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G19

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL5 mi47 minSSW 30.25 miLight Snow Freezing Fog30°F30°F100%1007 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI15 mi49 minN 05.00 miOvercast with Haze32°F27°F82%1006.6 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL19 mi50 minN 57.00 miOvercast36°F27°F70%1007.2 hPa

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3NW6N5NW6NW5NW4NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4S6S7S7S8S8S6S8S7S5CalmSW3
1 day agoNW6NW7
G16
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NW6NW5W3W3SW33W4SW8SW8SW9SW10SW8SW11SW9SW10
G19
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W8W9NW8NW7NW9
G16
2 days ago4SW7CalmCalmSW5SW13SW13SW10SW14
G23
S11SW6SW53NW6NW8
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N7
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.