Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Northampton, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 4:46PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 2:23 AM EST (07:23 UTC) Moonrise 7:50AMMoonset 5:35PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1003 Pm Est Mon Jan 15 2018
Overnight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Isolated flurries late this evening.
Tue..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Snow likely with chance of rain in the evening, then snow and rain after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. Snow and rain, mainly in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..W winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ300 1003 Pm Est Mon Jan 15 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure to the north of the area will weaken and shift eastward through Tuesday ahead of low pressure approaching from the west and a developing coastal low. The coastal low will move up the coast into the canadian maritimes through Wednesday night, while high pressure builds to the south through the remainder of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Northampton, MA
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location: 42.39, -72.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 160346
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
1046 pm est Mon jan 15 2018

Synopsis
Chilly early tonight with wintry mix including snow and
freezing drizzle impacting parts of southeastern ma. Low
pressure drives east from the great lakes Tuesday, then
redevelops off the mid atlantic coast. This will bring the
potential for several inches of snow to portions of the region
mainly late Tuesday into Wednesday afternoon... But precipitation
type is uncertain southeast of the boston to providence
corridor. Mainly dry weather likely Thursday into Sunday, with a
warming trend during the weekend. Another low pressure system
may affect our region early next week.

Near term through Tuesday
1015 pm update...

continue to see spotty freezing drizzle across portions of
plymouth and western barnstable counties at 03z, as well as some
mixed precip at kpvc. Band of light precip still skirting along
the E coast of plymouth county as seen on latest kbox 88d radar
imagery, though starting to shrink in coverage as the back edge
appears to be from W of kghg-kpym.

Due to the continuance of the freezing drizzle, have extended
the winter weather advisory for eastern plymouth county for a
few more hours. Also included barnstable county, felt it was
enough to include them for a few hours mainly across the lower
cape. Should see precip taper off by around 1 am.

Winds are slowly backing to 350-360 degrees, so should see drier
air work eastward. However, solid low level cloud deck
continues across the region, though gradually increasing across
the ct valley at 03z. Temps look to remain steady or maybe fall
a few degrees through the remainder of the night.

Previous discussion...

Tuesday...

should see cloudy skies early Tuesday morning with light north
winds. Approaching system from the west will help flip wind to a
more southerly direction by the afternoon hours. Guidance
continues to suggest more or a southwest flow aloft as WAA moves
in the region. This will help keep the region socked in with
clouds, however temperatures do warm into the low to mid 30s.

Within this warm advection pattern, snow showers will break out
across the area with some moderate lift in the snow growth
region. The Tuesday evening commute may be impacted especially
across western ma but the bulk of this system will occur Tuesday
night into Wednesday. See the short term section for more
details.

Short term Tuesday night through Thursday night
Tuesday night through Wednesday night...

upper trough over the eastern usa with jet core 130-145 knots.

The trough axis maintains a progressive orientation through
midweek. The right entrance region of the jet moves near the
carolina coast Tuesday evening, which will generate cyclogenesis
along the coast. The resulting coastal low will then move up the
coast overnight and pass CAPE cod and islands Wednesday
afternoon evening.

Cross sections show some initial elevated lift early Tuesday
night, but the best and deepest lift over southern new england
runs from after midnight until midday Wednesday. This will be
the best time for accumulating snow. There are differences among
the models regarding the track of the storm center. The NAM and
gfs are slower and pass about 70 miles inside 40n 70w, while the
ggem and ECMWF are about 6 hours faster and pass directly over
cape cod. We favored the offshore track.

Qpf continues to be expected in the 0.40 to 0.75 inch range,
with snow to liquid ratios of between 12 and 15 to 1 in the
interior and 10 to 12 to 1 in much of ri and southeast ma. This
supports 6 inches or higher over much of the region, with
diminishing amounts south of a boston-hartford line due to
temperatures near freezing along with a mix or change to rain.

This brings the heaviest snow over interior southern new
england, affecting an area broader than the current watch.

We have expanded the existing winter storm watch to include
northern ct, NW ri, and norfolk suffolk counties in ma.

The upper trough sweeps overhead Wednesday night. Expect
diminishing snow in advance of this Wednesday afternoon and
night.

Thursday...

model trends are sufficiently progressive to push any new
development well offshore and away from new england. The outlier
solution comes from the ggem, which maintains a closed upper low
over the va-carolina coast Wednesday night Thursday morning with
surface low pressure just outside the benchmark and an upper
flow guiding its moisture toward CAPE cod. We are discounting
the ggem solution and maintaining a dry forecast for Thursday
with partly to mostly sunny skies and northwest wind. Temps
aloft equiv to 850 temps of -15 to -17, so surface MAX temps
should be roughly 25 to 30. Thursday night dewpoints in the
teens and west wind 5 to 10 knots suggest min temps 15 to 25.

Long term Friday through Monday
Fri...

at the surface the area is still under the influence of a broad area
of high pressure. Models show a quick hitting mid level short wave
crossing thru southern new england during the day however there is
not much moisture associated with this feature. This far out there
could certainly be uncertainty on exact timing and whether or not it
brings light precip in addition to some clouds. Thinking at this
time will go with a slight chance pop for light snow on Friday,
but main effect should be some clouds.

Sat and daytime sun...

high pressure centered offshore and well south of new england
remains our primary weather feature. W SW return flow brings in
warmer air, hence expecting a moderation of the airmass over the
course of the weekend. Going with high temps in the 40s Saturday,
and mid 40s to low 50s on Sunday. In comparison, normal high temps
are currently in the 30s. Overall dry weather is likely. Soundings
show the influence of the high pressure in the form of a broad
subsidence inversion.

Sun night... Warm front approaches from the west as a low pressure
system centered over the western great lakes region deepens. At this
point not anticipating much by way of precipitation in our area, but
could see some light rain or a light wintry mix over a portion of
our region. Will go with slight to low chance pops.

Early next workweek... Models indicating potential for great lakes
low to move eastward, bringing precipitation associated with a cold
front thru southern new england. With southerly flow ahead of the
front, anticipating that this would be a initially a rain event,
though could end as a period of wintry mix or snow. Could also be
windy ahead and along the front, as models are showing potential for
a strong low level jet. However, this far out there is still a lot
of uncertainty, from both a timing and p-type standpoint. So plan to
go with chance pops at this time.

Aviation 03z Tuesday through Saturday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday night ...

overnight... Moderate to high confidence in taf. Patchy -sn -fzdz
across eastern plymouth county to CAPE cod should wind down by
around 06z. Mixture of MVFR to low endVFR CIGS with lowest
conditions across eastern ma including the CAPE and the islands.

Tuesday... Moderate confidence in taf. AnyVFR will fall to MVFR
cigs through the day. Light snow showers will over spread the
region by the afternoon ESP across western ma.

Tuesday night-Wednesday... Mainly ifr lifr CIGS vsbys in snow,
with areas of heavy snow north of a bos-hfd line. Snow may mix
with or change to rain south of a marshfield-providence-westerly
line. Conditions improve toVFR in ct and western mass Wednesday
afternoon... And in ri and eastern central mass Wednesday night.

Wind gusts 25 to 30 knots around nantucket and parts of cape
cod.

Thursday...VFR. Northwest winds gust to 25 knots CAPE cod and
islands, with gusts to 20 knots elsewhere.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence in taf. Should remain snow
free, but cannot rule out a few flurries during the evening
push.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Friday through Saturday ...

vfr. Breezy.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday night ... High confidence.

Overnight into Tuesday... N-ne winds overnight with gusts near
20 kts will diminish by the morning as they shift to se. Sca
has been expanded as seas will remain about 5 feet or higher.

Tuesday night... S-se winds with gusts to 25 knots. Seas 5 feet
on the outer waters. Mixed snow and rain developing. Visibility
4 to 6 nm. Small craft advisory may be needed.

Wednesday... Easterly winds with gusts 20 to 30 knots. A few
gusts to 35 knots possible southeast of nantucket. Seas 5 to 7
feet on the outer waters and possibly on the ri waters. Rain and
snow will diminish in the afternoon. Visibility 2 to 4 miles.

Small craft advisory may be needed. Low chance of a gale warning
southeast of nantucket.

Wednesday night... Winds turning from northwest at 20 to 25
knots. Seas remain at 5 to 7 feet on the outer waters. Snow
tapers off at this time. Small craft advisory may be needed.

Thursday... Northwest winds gusting to 25 knots. Seas remain 5 to
7 feet on the outer waters. Small craft advisory may be needed.

Outlook Friday through Saturday ...

Friday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Friday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Saturday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Hydrology
Minor flooding continues along taunton and pawcatuck rivers
where flood warnings remain in effect. A flood warning is also
in effect for the connecticut river at hartford and middle
haddam, where ice is causing some river fluctuations.

Colder weather will persist through midweek which will limit
additional runoff, although we should see some building of snow
pack for much of region Tuesday into Wednesday.

For details on specific area rivers, including observed and
forecast river stages, please visit the advanced hydrologic
prediction service AHPS graphs on our website.

Equipment
The taunton, ma WSR-88D (kbox) has been returned to service.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... Winter storm watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
afternoon for ctz002>004.

Ma... Winter weather advisory until 1 am est Tuesday for maz019-022.

Winter storm watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
afternoon for maz005>007-013>016-026.

Winter storm watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
afternoon for maz002>004-008>012.

Ri... Winter storm watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
afternoon for riz001.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 am est Tuesday for anz231>235-237.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm est Tuesday for anz250-251-
254>256.

Synopsis... Wtb dunten
near term... Wtb dunten evt
short term... Wtb
long term... Nmb
aviation... Wtb evt nmb
marine... Wtb evt nmb
hydrology...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 63 mi54 min 21°F 1033 hPa11°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 77 mi54 min NNE 1 G 2.9 21°F 34°F1032.9 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 81 mi54 min N 7 G 9.9 24°F 37°F1032.5 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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N4
G10
E3
G9
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NE3
G12
NE4
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N3
G7
SE3
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NW3
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1 day
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N11
G15
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G14
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G20
NE14
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E2
G9
NE3
G8
N4
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G7
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G12
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N2
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N1
G6
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2 days
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S15
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N14
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G30
N14
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G27
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G23
N13
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N14
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N13
G18

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Westfield, Barnes Municipal Airport, MA17 mi31 minN 510.00 miOvercast20°F7°F57%1033.6 hPa
Chicopee Falls / Westover Air Force Base, MA21 mi28 minNE 510.00 miOvercast20°F8°F60%1033.2 hPa
Pittsfield Municipal Airport, MA24 mi30 minN 010.00 miOvercast16°F9°F74%1031.7 hPa

Wind History from BAF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9N10N9N10N10N8NE9NE7NE8N9N7NE6NE7N7N8N7N7N6N7N6N6N5N6N5
1 day agoNW7NW8NW8NW5NW6NW5N6N8N7N8NE8NE6N8NE8N5N8N9N5N8N10N9N7N8N10
2 days agoS6S13
G20
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S10W9
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G33
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NW16NW12NW13W16
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NW12NW11NW12NW13NW10NW12N13

Tide / Current Tables for Hartford, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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Hartford
Click for MapNote: Tidal information only applies during low river stages.

Tue -- 02:03 AM EST     1.61 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:46 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:41 AM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:20 PM EST     2.06 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:36 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tue -- 10:17 PM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.91.41.61.51.41.10.90.60.40.20.20.61.21.7221.81.51.20.80.40.1-0.10

Tide / Current Tables for South Hartford, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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South Hartford
Click for MapNote: Tidal information only applies during low river stages.

Tue -- 01:57 AM EST     1.61 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:46 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:43 AM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:14 PM EST     2.06 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:36 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tue -- 10:19 PM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.91.41.61.51.31.10.90.60.40.20.10.51.21.7221.81.51.20.80.40.1-0.10.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.