Thursday, May24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Northampton, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:18AMSunset 8:16PM Thursday May 24, 2018 10:03 AM EDT (14:03 UTC) Moonrise 3:10PMMoonset 3:03AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 728 Am Edt Thu May 24 2018
Today..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S this afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Sun night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Mon..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Mon night..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 728 Am Edt Thu May 24 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure will dominate the weather through Saturday. A backdoor cold front pushes across the area Saturday night into Sunday morning, becoming nearly stationary just south and west of the area through memorial day.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Northampton, MA
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location: 42.39, -72.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 241353
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
953 am edt Thu may 24 2018

Synopsis
Dry and cooler weather will prevail today as high pressure
builds into the region. Warmer and more humid conditions then
return through Saturday. A cold front approaches from northern
new england Saturday afternoon, bringing scattered showers and
thunderstorms. The front stalls south of the region Sunday, with
cool east winds and patchy showers lingering through the
remainder of the holiday weekend. High pressure moves in with
drier weather for the midweek.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
* 950 am update *
low clouds were burning off quickly this morning and were
retreating back over ocean south of islands. Expect skies to
clear out through early afternoon with just some patchy mid or
high clouds around NE ma. Onshore flow will keep coastal areas
in upper 50s to lower 60s this afternoon, while it warms well
into 70s inland.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday
Tonight...

clear conditions, return light S flow, opportunity for radiational
cooling with boundary layer decoupling early on before higher
dewpoint air pushes n. Perhaps some low cloud and or fog issues
along the immediate s-shoreline of new england, otherwise leaning
with coldest forecast guidance with lows upper 40s to low 50s.

Friday...

mild day on tap with increasing humidity. High pressure se, W sw
flow prevails. Warm air advection within low-mid levels, ridge
builds. Up against n-stream cyclonic flow baffin bay low, in
the confluence of which low-level SW winds increase. Daytime
heating, boundary layer mixing, mix-down of drier air, faster
winds. Looking at highs around the mid to upper 80s, the warm
spot over the merrimack river valley and boston-metro where
we'll likely see some locations top out over 90. The deep
mixing, can't rule out SW gusts upwards of 30 mph.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
Big picture...

zonal flow with embedded shortwaves in place across canada and the
northern tier of the usa. Upper flow also features closed lows over
the gulf of mexico and the western usa. The western low opens and
feeds into the zonal stream early next week. The gulf low opens into
the zonal flow the middle of next week. One shortwave embedded in
the zonal flow will move across new england early next week.

Upper contour fields are in general agreement through Monday, while
the mslp fields show differences in details starting Sunday. Thermal
fields also start showing differences starting Sunday. Overall
forecast confidence is moderate-high through Sunday, moderate for
Monday-Tuesday. Agreement on a building ridge Wednesday suggests
higher confidence, but it is a day 7 forecast which limits such
confidence.

Contour fields from Saturday onward remain above normal through the
forecast period. Thermal fields are also above normal, although fall
to near normal Wednesday. Low level flow turns from the east and
northeast Saturday night, then remains that way for Sunday and much
of Monday. This will affect the surface layer with cooler
temperatures while the deeper layer remains above normal.

Concerns...

Friday night and Saturday...

high pressure over the west atlantic maintains dry weather over
southern new england Friday night and Saturday morning. Low pressure
passing across northern maine combines with the high to create a
pressure gradient favoring west-southwest winds in our area. This
flow brings in higher moisture air, with precipitable water values
around 1.3 inches... More than 1 std dev above normal but less than
2. Dew points should climb through the 50s into the lower 60s.

Temps aloft in the mixed layer favor MAX sfc temps in the mid to
upper 80s inland and cooler along the south coast.

As the northern maine low pressure moves off through the
maritimes, it pushes a cold front south through our area during
the late afternoon and early night. Pw values continue to rise,
reaching 1.5 to 1.7 inches which would be near 2 std dev.

Stability parameters become more favorable for convection, with
cape 500-1000 j kg and totals around 50. Mid-level lapse rates
are forecast at 6-6.5c km. Theta-e ridge is indicated from
southern ny through ct and NRN ri. All of this supports showers
and scattered t-storms with potential for local downpours. Most
favored area would be ct and NRN ri, but all areas would have a
chance. Winds aloft ahead of the front are rather weak, so not
favoring strong wind gusts at this time.

The cold front moves south through our area Saturday night.

Increasing east winds behind the front may lead to gusty winds
especially over eastern mass.

Sunday-Wednesday...

cold front stalls south of new england, aligned with the zonal flow.

Shortwave trough moves east through the upper flow, passing new
england around Monday. This may generate a weak wave along the front
that moves past us on Monday. Thus we expect continued unsettled
conditions Sunday and Monday with a chance of showers each day.

Another cold front pushes SE out of central canada during Tuesday.

This may generate a few showers before pushing the moisture
offshore.

High pressure builds over the region Wednesday, bringing dry weather.

Aviation 14z Thursday through Monday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

* 950 am update *
short term through Friday ...

high confidence. Leftover ifr CIGS will clear out through midday
leavingVFR conditions across sne. Sea breezes will prevail near
coast, with some 20kt gusts along south coast during afternoon.

Lighter N NW winds inland.

May see ifr CIGS vsbys return to south coastal areas tonight as
winds turn to S sw.VFR (or improving toVFR south coast) fri
with SW winds gusting up to 30kt.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Friday night through Monday ... Moderate confidence.

Friday night:VFR. Breezy.

Saturday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible in afternoon
showers scattered thunderstorms. Breezy.

Saturday night: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Chance
shra, slight chance tsra.

Sunday: mainly MVFR, with areas ifr possible. Breezy. Chance
shra.

Sunday night: mainly ifr, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
shra, patchy br.

Memorial day: mainly MVFR, with areas ifr possible. Chance
shra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

* 950 am update *
short term through Friday ... High confidence.

S SE flow gets underway this afternoon with local sea breezes.

Should see some 15-20kt gusts along south coastal near shore
waters with locally choppy seas due to incoming high tide. Fog
and low clouds burn off by early afternoon, but may linger on
waters south of islands.

Tonight and Friday...

high pressure moving off the coast will bring developing
south-southwest winds tonight and southwest winds Friday.

Enough of a low level jet may result in marginal small craft
conditions Friday with southwest wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots
and marginal 3 to 5 foot seas across the outer- waters.

Outlook Friday night through Monday ... Moderate confidence.

Friday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, slight chance of
thunderstorms.

Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain
showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Sunday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Memorial day: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for winds from 11 am to 6 pm edt Friday
for anz230-231-251.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm to 8 pm edt Friday for anz235-
237-250.

Small craft advisory from 8 am to 8 pm edt Friday for
anz254>256.

Synopsis... Wtb sipprell
near term... Jwd
short term... Sipprell
long term... Wtb
aviation... Jwd
marine... Jwd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 63 mi94 min 59°F 1020 hPa52°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 77 mi46 min N 9.9 G 17 70°F 58°F1019.6 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 81 mi46 min N 7 G 12 68°F 51°F1019 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Westfield, Barnes Municipal Airport, MA17 mi71 minNNE 710.00 miFair68°F46°F47%1019.5 hPa
Chicopee Falls / Westover Air Force Base, MA21 mi68 minNNW 810.00 miA Few Clouds66°F37°F35%1020.1 hPa
Pittsfield Municipal Airport, MA24 mi70 minVar 610.00 miFair62°F42°F48%1018.5 hPa

Wind History from BAF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN11N9NW13
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NW10NW12W13NW13W10NW9NW6NW8NW8CalmNE3CalmN5N5N6NE4N5N7N9
G15
1 day agoCalmCalmS4SE43S11S12S13
G20
S7S5S5S6S6S8S6S5CalmS3CalmS3CalmS634
2 days agoE63S5SW8W46NW10NW6W6SW5CalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmN3CalmCalmCalmN3

Tide / Current Tables for Hartford, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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Hartford
Click for MapNote: Tidal information only applies during low river stages.

Thu -- 03:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:00 AM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:34 AM EDT     1.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:19 PM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.121.71.41.10.70.30.20.511.51.921.81.61.41.10.70.30.10.20.81.52

Tide / Current Tables for South Hartford, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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South Hartford
Click for MapNote: Tidal information only applies during low river stages.

Thu -- 03:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:02 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:28 AM EDT     1.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:21 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:57 PM EDT     2.28 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.11.91.71.410.60.30.20.411.61.921.81.61.410.70.30.10.20.81.52.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.