Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Northampton, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 4:28PM Saturday November 17, 2018 6:11 PM EST (23:11 UTC) Moonrise 3:00PMMoonset 1:29AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 549 Pm Est Sat Nov 17 2018
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain after midnight.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Mon night..N winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ300 549 Pm Est Sat Nov 17 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds across the waters through Sunday. A frontal boundary will slowly move across late Sunday night into Tuesday morning, with weak areas of low pressure tracking along it. An arctic front will pass Wed night. High pres builds in from the W on thanksgiving.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Northampton, MA
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location: 42.39, -72.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 172000
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
300 pm est Sat nov 17 2018

Synopsis
Diminishing W winds as high pressure shifts across the region
into Sunday. Expect unsettled conditions Sunday night through
Monday as weak low pressure moves across, bringing periods of
light rain and or snow. More cold air will move in by mid week
into thanksgiving, though it should remain dry. Cold air could
be near or record breaking for late november.

Near term through tonight
3 pm update...

warmer than expected. Given a snow covered S new england, it in
fact warmed up quite nicely today with most locations seeing highs
around the mid-40s. Only the high terrain remained cool with highs
around the upper 30s to low 40s. Surprising more so as some weak
mid-level energy skirted NE across our region providing ascent upon
the trapped h9-6 moist layer. Partnering with boundary layer mixing
of decent surface dewpoint air likely to some degree the result of
snowmelt ranging around the upper 20s to low 30s, broken cloud
decks have become more widespread as W winds slowly diminish.

Expect winds to continue diminishing into evening as cloud decks
become more scattered with the end of boundary layer mixing.

Tonight...

a cold, dry night. Not considerably cold, believe a few factors will
limit boundary layer decoupling and radiational cooling. For one, w
winds still breezy around 5-10 mph. Two, scattered to broken cloud
decks beneath prevailing broad cyclonic flow. And lastly, snowmelt
and high dewpoint air round the upper 20s to low 30s at MAX heating
of the day. Not a clear-cut case of radiating down into the teens,
rather forecasting widespread mid-upper 20s with coastline and lower
ct river valley around 30. Can't rule an isolated locale decoupling,
especially if with deep snowpack, seeing lows closer to 20 degrees.

Again, chilly, dry, with any wind, making it feel 5 degrees cooler.

Short term Sunday through Monday
A dry start much of Sunday, but a weak weather disturbance sweeping
through Sunday night into Monday. Light outcomes with the potential
for a sub-advisory, trace up to 2 inches of snow, especially over
n W portions of ma and ct, highest amounts across the high terrain.

Otherwise light rain. Potential Monday am commute impacts.

Weak, stretched mid-level shortwave impulse through broader cyclonic
flow. Streaming moist-continental h6-9 airmass undergoing isentropic
ascent along 285-295k surfaces, aided via orographic lift along high
terrain. Outcomes along a fairly diffuse low center with ill-defined
boundaries, tandem subtle increasing thicknesses, however remaining
cold enough for snow over N W ma and ct. Support via a neighboring
jet-streak downstream, some rrq influences, a thermal wind response
that extends down to h925-85 yielding a convergent nose of the low-
level jet out ahead of the diffuse low center.

Notable model spread. In general, global forecast guidance broader
with outcomes, stronger lift and ascent parameters, whereas high-res
forecast guidance is weaker, blotchy, more focused over high terrain
where lift is best. Consensus speaking, h8-9 frontogenesis noted
with convergent low-level jet nose, as is the moist-continental h6-9
airmass, ice within the column, and conditionally unstable profiles
through the snow-growth region upon which to act upon. Anti-cyclonic
ascent likely but the depth and magnitude of which remain uncertain.

Overall, a weak event forecast models are likely having difficulty
defining, but rain snow outcomes appear likely.

Model forecast snow probabilities focused over N W ma and ct. Though
spread exists within model forecast plume diagrams with respect to
liquid-equivalent precipitation. Favoring a consensus blend approach
with available guidance, especially wpc nerfc forecasts, working
with other forecast offices. Sub-advisory event with a trace to
2 inches over N W areas of ma and ct, especially the high terrain.

Kicking off as early as late afternoon Sunday, however the bulk
of the outcomes centered around midnight into early Monday morning.

Some potential Monday am commute outcomes especially along the route-2
corridor and western portions of i-90 with roads becoming snow covered
making for slick, hazardous travel as snow accumulation is expected
on all surfaces. Also expected reductions in visibility.

Long term Monday night through Saturday
Highlights...

* high pressure brings dry and cold conditions for Wed through
thanksgiving day
* signs a potential warm up late next week into next weekend
overview...

generally looking at a broad mid level trough lingering over the
northeast through at least thanksgiving day. Modest ridging is then
expected late next week into next weekend. General agreement with
this overall pattern among the 17 12z guidance. Some detail
differences with the timing through the upcoming week, which is not
uncommon. Will favor a consensus approach to smooth over the less
predictable details.

Temperatures...

the majority of this period will most likely feature below normal
temperatures. Thanksgiving looks to be the coldest period, with a
strong signal of 2-3 standard deviations below normal. High
temperatures expected to struggle to reach freezing. Modest warmup
late next week, but not a guarantee.

Precipitation...

looking like a busy first half of next week. Complicated pattern as
a low pressure moves into the great lakes Monday night, then
possible transfers some energy into a coastal low pressure off the
mid atlantic coast Tuesday. Between these two, there is a risk for
some rain and or snow. It will all hinge on the timing details, the
more this event occurs at night, the more probable accumulating snow
will be in the forecast.

Mainly dry weather expected Wednesday through Saturday. Based on
current temperature forecast, there is the possibility for some
ocean effect snow across the outer CAPE and nantucket Wednesday
night into Thursday.

Aviation 19z Saturday through Thursday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday ... High confidence.

Rest of today...

vfr. Breezy W NW winds with gusts generally 15 to 25 kts. Sct-
bkn CIGS 3-4 kft agl.

Tonight...

vfr continues. Breezy W NW winds 10 to 20 kts, lower across the
interior. Continued CIGS 3-4 kft becoming more sct.

Sunday...

remainingVFR however CIGS thickening and lowering towards evening.

Potential MVFR across the high terrain by 0z with possible -ra -sn
beginning. Winds shifting S SW through the day.

Sunday night through Monday...

MVFR-ifr mix with widespread -ra -sn. Wintry outcomes more NW versus
wet weather outcomes se. Lower vsbys with -sn. S SW flow becoming
w NW towards Monday evening.

Kbos terminal...

no impacts through 0z Monday.VFR. After 0z Monday, lowering MVFR
to ifr, -ra moving into the terminal overnight and continuing
through the Monday am push.

Kbdl terminal...

no impacts through 0z Monday.VFR. After 0z Monday, lowering MVFR
ifr, -sn forecast overnight into Monday morning mixing with -ra,
impacts to the morning am push.

Outlook Monday night through Thursday ...

Monday night:VFR. Chance shsn and shra. Patchy br.

Tuesday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
shsn.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night:VFR. Breezy.

Thanksgiving day:VFR. Windy with local gusts to 30 kt.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday ... High confidence.

Into tonight...

small craft advisories concluding as W winds continue to diminish.

Waves dampening.

Sunday...

good boating weather as both winds and seas will be light. Will
see W winds turn S SW through the day. Increasing clouds out of
the sw, lowering and thickening ahead of the next weather system
with the threat of some rain Sunday night into Monday.

Sunday night into Monday...

rain overspreading the waters as S SW flow continues. Gusts up
to 20 kts. No hazards forecast for boaters but there could be
some reductions in visibility due to the rain which is expected
to be light. Winds shifting W NW by Monday evening.

Outlook Monday night through Thursday ...

Monday night: winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Tuesday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Chance of rain showers.

Tuesday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Wednesday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Thanksgiving day: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds
with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
anz230>237.

Small craft advisory until 4 am est Sunday for anz250-254-255.

Small craft advisory until 1 am est Sunday for anz251-256.

Synopsis... Belk sipprell
near term... Sipprell
short term... Sipprell
long term... Belk
aviation... Belk sipprell
marine... Belk sipprell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 63 mi42 min 40°F 1022 hPa31°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 77 mi42 min WNW 6 G 8.9 45°F 52°F1022.3 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 81 mi42 min W 2.9 G 5.1 44°F 53°F1021.5 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Westfield, Barnes Municipal Airport, MA17 mi19 minW 410.00 miOvercast41°F26°F55%1021.5 hPa
Chicopee Falls / Westover Air Force Base, MA21 mi16 minW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy41°F25°F55%1021.4 hPa
Pittsfield Municipal Airport, MA24 mi18 minWNW 810.00 miOvercast36°F28°F73%1020.7 hPa

Wind History from BAF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S8S3SE44CalmW5W4SW6W9W7W6SW3W3W5W8NW16
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1 day agoN5N7N7N8N13N9N10N8N12N11N9N11N13N14N14N13NW9N9N6NW17NW10
G18
NW543
2 days agoNW8N6N8N10N6NW5N3N4N3N3N6N4N4N5NE5N4CalmNE3CalmCalmN3N7N4N6

Tide / Current Tables for Hartford, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for South Hartford, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.