Tuesday, June19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe Farms, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 9:13PM Tuesday June 19, 2018 11:43 PM EDT (03:43 UTC) Moonrise 11:37AMMoonset 12:16AM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ422 409 pm edt Mon jun 18 2018 a marine weather statement has been issued for the following areas... NEarshore and open waters from port sanilac to port huron mi... St. Clair river... At 408 pm edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to up 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 nm east of port huron to 12 nm northwest of st. Clair, moving east at 30 knots. Locations impacted include... Algonac and st. Clair. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, lightning strikes, and heavy downpours. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4296 8242 4299 8242 4262 8252 4261 8253 4260 8256 4255 8259 4256 8259 4261 8256 4257 8259 4258 8259 4261 8258 4261 8259 4256 8262 4256 8260 4255 8264 4300 8242 4297 8241 LCZ422 Expires:201806182115;;741688 FZUS73 KDTX 182009 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 409 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2018 LCZ422-LHZ443-464-182115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe Farms city, MI
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location: 42.4, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 200217
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1017 pm edt Tue jun 19 2018

Update
After dissipating during late afternoon, showers are redeveloping
across central lower michigan back into wisconsin during mid evening.

This activity lines up well with the 850-700 mb theta-e gradient
representation of the mid level frontal zone. Model cross sections
indicate a broad region of lower stability with weak and shallow
instability embedded within the frontal zone. Expect the resulting
showers will continue to percolate during the night with the support
of weak fgen supported by the ageostrophic flow tied to the entrance
region of the upper jet over the northern great lakes. The mid level
frontal forcing becomes augmented by a combination of the MCV from
illinois and the upper trough from the mid mississippi valley
overnight. These upper level features combine to provide continued
support of surface low pressure migrating eastward along the stalled
front and even produce a few millibars of deepening during the night.

The surface low stays south of the ohio border but influences
forcing over lower michigan due to enhanced southwest flow in the
surface to 850 mb layer giving a boost to theta-e advection moisture
transport. Generous coverage of showers will result over much of the
region as nocturnal instability is enhanced but with the
concentration greatest where moisture transport overlaps mid level
fgen. Likely pops numerous coverage still looks good along and north
of the m-59 corridor with the forecast update raising pops higher
into chance scattered category in the detroit area overnight through
Wednesday morning.

Prev discussion
Issued at 723 pm edt Tue jun 19 2018
aviation...

low pressure over iowa during the evening will move eastward along a
front stalled across indiana and ohio overnight. Showers are
expected to redevelop over lower michigan as the system approaches,
mainly after midnight through mid Wednesday morning. At the same
time, dry low level wind from the northeast battles against low
cloud development over SE michigan, north of the surface front. This
results in prevailingVFR with any flight restriction dependent on
heavier showers in terms of both visibility and ceiling.

Thunderstorms are not expected, however rainfall intensity has
potential for borderline ifr MVFR visibility at times late tonight
through early Wednesday morning. There is still some question on the
location where the heavier showers will be located so later updates
will be used to refine timing and intensity. At this point,
maintained a prob30 group centered on 09-13z for MVFR restriction.

The low then moves off into eastern ohio and takes showers out of
the region for Wednesday afternoon.

For dtw... NE surface wind is reestablished during the evening and
expected to continue the need for NE traffic flow operations tonight
through Wednesday. Thunderstorm potential remains minimal at dtw as
evening storms stay south of the ohio border with just a stray
shower to the north, and then greater coverage redevelops toward fnt
later in the night.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling 5000 ft or less tonight and Wednesday.

* low for thunderstorms tonight through Wednesday morning.

Prev discussion...

issued at 329 pm edt Tue jun 19 2018
discussion...

anticyclonic flow around high pressure centered across arkansas into
northern mississippi continues to advect moisture into the midwest
and has helped produce mid-level cloud cover for the bulk of the day
across the lower peninsula. A baroclinic zone situated across
southern michigan in conjunction with an 850-700 mb fgen band
situated across central michigan have brought drizzle to light rain
across the metro region and scattered showers to the tri-cities area
respectively. Persistent cloud cover and incoming rain showers from
the grand rapids area will also act to hold daytime temperatures in
the mid to upper-70s for a high across the metro region.

Rain chances have been increased across all over SE mi this
afternoon and into the early morning hours, especially along and
north of i-696, as the latest 12z model suits (specifically nam12
gfs20) converges on frontogenesis taking place in the low to mid-
levels during 03 - 09z time frame. Latest 12z ECMWF run also ejects
a shortwave trough across SE mi between 06 - 12z, increasing
confidence regarding rain chances tonight and overnight.

Additionally, decent convergence is observed in latest 12z cams
regarding location of fgen band and associated timing and location
of precipitation. An isolated thunderstorm will be possible along
and south of i-696, however, with poor low to mid-level lapse rates
and mucapes only peaking between 100-200 j kg, thunderstorm chances
will remain low.

Dry conditions will then fill in across SE mi late Wednesday morning
into the afternoon as a backdoor cold front and associated dry
airmass fills in across the state. Increased subsidence will
diminish cloud cover from north to south throughout the afternoon
and into the evening as temperatures peak in the mid-70s for a
daytime high. High pressure is expected to remain in place across
eastern ontario into western quebec into Thursday, which will help
to suppress cloud cover as southeasterly flow helps push
temperatures back into the upper 70s to lower 80s for a daytime
high.

An upper low lifting out of the mid ms valley on Friday will bring
an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms from south to
north late in the day. The increasing cloud cover and cool easterly
flow will keep highs in the low to mid 70s before widespread showers
and thunderstorms overspread SE michigan Friday night through early
Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm chances are then expected to
decrease late Saturday as the low departs the region. A northern
stream wave dropping through ontario will then pull a cold front
through the region on Sunday. Ahead of this boundary, additional
showers and thunderstorms will be possible before high pressure
builds southward early next week bringing a return to dry
conditions. Temperatures look to remain slightly below normal
through the weekend into early next week with highs in the 70s and
lows ranging from the lower 50s to lower 60s.

Marine...

moderate onshore flow will be commonplace through the end of the
week leading to occasional unsettled marine conditions in the
nearshore zones. There remains a low chance for thunderstorms over
the waters into the weekend. Wind will turn south as low pressure
approaches from the west late Fri into sat.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Update... ... .Bt
aviation... ..Bt
discussion... Am jd
marine... ... .Jvc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 5 mi44 min NE 12 G 14 66°F 1014.9 hPa (+0.0)
45147 - Lake St Clair 11 mi44 min NE 12 G 14 67°F 70°F1013.8 hPa (-0.1)
AGCM4 25 mi44 min 64°F 1014.4 hPa (-0.4)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 43 mi44 min NE 14 G 14 70°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 47 mi44 min 61°F 1014.4 hPa (-0.5)
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 49 mi44 min N 6 G 8 60°F 1014.5 hPa (-0.6)52°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI7 mi51 minENE 610.00 miFair67°F57°F71%1014.1 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI15 mi1.8 hrsNE 710.00 miOvercast67°F60°F80%1014.5 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI18 mi49 minNE 710.00 miOvercast69°F56°F64%1015.2 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8NE7N5N7N8N7N6N7NE9NE11E10E10E10E6E5CalmNE4SE5SE5SE4E3E4E9NE6
1 day agoSW7W8W9W6SW7SW9SW10SW9W8W10
G19
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N11N7N9N12
2 days agoCalmS3SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SW45W5----W10
G15
W6
G16
SW12SW11
G17
SW10S10SW9SW5SW5SW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.