Monday, December10, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe Farms, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:49AMSunset 5:00PM Monday December 10, 2018 8:14 AM EST (13:14 UTC) Moonrise 10:28AMMoonset 8:05PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ422 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0041.000000t0000z-181017t1615z/ 1145 Am Edt Wed Oct 17 2018
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Harbor beach to port sanilac mi... Lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac 5nm off shore to us/canadian border... Lake huron from port sanilac to port huron 5nm off shore to us/canadian border... Port sanilac to port huron mi... St. Clair river... The showers have moved out of the warned area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters. However, waterspouts will continue to be possible the remainder of the day. Lat...lon 4357 8213 4300 8242 4297 8241 4295 8243 4300 8247 4322 8257 4362 8263 4364 8213 time...mot...loc 1432z 311deg 26kt 4287 8193
LCZ422 Expires:201810171554;;903658 FZUS73 KDTX 171545 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1145 AM EDT WED OCT 17 2018 LCZ422-LHZ442-443-463-464-171554-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe Farms city, MI
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location: 42.4, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 101116
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
616 am est Mon dec 10 2018

Aviation
The development of prevailing northerly flow trajectories allowed
stratus to nocturnally expand southward into all of southeast
michigan overnight. A very strong inversion will remain in place
at around 3.0 kft agl today. This stable layer will insulate the
cloud deck through a good portion of the day. The question for this
taf cycle is what will happen to cloud trends late this afternoon as
southwesterly gradient flow develops over the southern lower
peninsula in response to a low pressure system digging into lake
superior. The potential exists for clearing skies late this
afternoon due to the advection of dry air from the southwest.

However, given time of year and the thermodynamic profile,
preference was to carry a pessimistic clearing trend this afternoon.

The TAF forecast will call for bkn MVFR after 21z with ovc taking
hold again tonight.

For dtw... MVFR stratus will remain in place through much of today
with strong inversion in existence. Potential exists for clearing
this afternoon, but preference was to remain pessimistic.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* high for CIGS below 5kft through Monday afternoon.

Prev discussion
Issued at 329 am est Mon dec 10 2018
discussion...

broad area of high pressure centered over the plains will maintain
influence over the region resulting in quiet weather conditions
through today. Only thing of note to start the day will be an
increase in low clouds trapped beneath an inversion around 1500-2000
feet, which have spread across southeast michigan under light w-nw
flow. The pattern in recent days and the amount of overall dry air
suggests that this low level stratus will gradually erode through
the afternoon hours as winds back more out of the w-sw. Cold airmass
remains over the area with 850 mb temperatures a degree or two below
freezing. Expecting a smaller diurnal swing today with the overnight
clouds preventing lows from tanking, so will edge high temperatures
slightly upward for into the low to mid 30s.

A northern stream shortwave will dig through ontario tonight into
tomorrow developing a surface low over lake superior. This surface
low will pass northeast of the area leaving our area on the southern
quadrant where overall moisture will be lacking. An increase in more
substantial clouds tomorrow will be supported by passing upper jet
forcing and vorticity advection as the system swings through the
central great lakes. A passing flurry will not be out of the
question during the afternoon on Tuesday given saturation with
respect to ice present in the low levels and the saturated layer
creeping towards -10c across the northeastern portions of the thumb
and down the shoreline towards port huron, but it looks unlikely at
this point. Expect most of the light precipitation to fall northeast
of the area. Temperatures remain in the 30s with overnight lows into
Wednesday morning in the upper teens and low 20s.

Ridge axis will quickly pass through the central great lake on
Wednesday afternoon as a warm advection under southerly flow brings
850 mb temperatures above freezing. Overcast skies will be moving in
during the later half of the day on Wednesday ahead of the next mid
level wave swinging through the midwest. This wave will bring
potential for some light snowfall, but moisture quality is still
lacking as the southern stream jet is holding deeper moisture well
to our south. Therefore, not anticipating any significant
accumulations with this system.

Low confidence in the forecast still remains for the end of the week
in terms of timing and coverage of precipitation as a trough is
forecast to amplify and cut off across the south central us. Even
with the uncertainty in precipitation coverage, it looks like there
will be enough warm air advection streaming northward around the
southern stream wave that any precipitation that falls will fall as
rain during the day Friday. If precipitation arrives during the late
night hours of Thursday into Friday, some snowflakes may fall given
nocturnal timing. Shortwave ridge will then move through the great
lakes bringing dry conditions through the weekend as the southern
stream wave travels across the southern us.

Marine...

high pressure will continue to build across the region through the
early week bringing dry weather and lighter W to SW winds with gusts
of 15-20 knots or less. Winds pick back up out of SE around 25 kts
by mid week ahead of a low pressure system moving out of the central
plains and through the great lakes.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Cb
discussion... Aa
marine... ... .Cb
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 5 mi74 min W 5.1 G 6 23°F 1024.4 hPa (+0.4)
AGCM4 25 mi44 min 26°F 40°F1023.5 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 43 mi74 min NNW 8.9 G 11 25°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 47 mi44 min 28°F 1022.9 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 49 mi44 min WNW 4.1 G 6 27°F 1022.9 hPa21°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI7 mi21 minN 07.00 miOvercast24°F19°F81%1025.1 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI15 mi18 minW 56.00 miFog/Mist23°F23°F99%1024.7 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI18 mi19 minW 57.00 miOvercast26°F20°F79%1024.4 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW4SW4SW5W6W5W6W6W4NW5NW5NW4N3CalmCalmW3NW3NW3NW3NW3W3W4CalmCalm
1 day agoW4NW8NW7NW5NW6CalmW65SW6S4S3CalmS3SW5SW4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalm3CalmW8W8W7W7SW9SW9SW8SW10W11W9
G17
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G20
NW8W6W5W4W6W3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.