Sunday, August19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe Farms, MI

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Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 8:27PM Sunday August 19, 2018 2:05 AM EDT (06:05 UTC) Moonrise 2:42PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ422 447 Pm Edt Mon Aug 6 2018
.a strong Thunderstorm approaching the waters... The areas affected include... NEarshore and open waters from port sanilac to port huron mi... St. Clair river... At 446 pm edt, doppler radar indicated a strong Thunderstorm, capable of producing winds to up 30 knots. This Thunderstorm will move was located near st. Clair, moving north at 20 knots. The strong Thunderstorm will move over far southern lake huron just after 5 pm. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes. && a severe Thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 700 pm edt for southeastern michigan. Lat...lon 4300 8242 4307 8246 4307 8245 4312 8247 4313 8249 4323 8252 4332 8253 4335 8254 4336 8253 4339 8223
LCZ422 Expires:201808062145;;247602 FZUS73 KDTX 062047 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 447 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018 LCZ422-LHZ443-464-062145-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe Farms city, MI
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location: 42.4, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 190603
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
203 am edt Sun aug 19 2018

Aviation
Main concern for this TAF forecast will be areas of patchy dense fog
developing across southeast michigan tonight and lasting through
portions of tomorrow morning. Periods of ifr to lifr visibility with
low ceilings will be possible throughout much of the night as fog
develops from saginaw bay southward towards fnt and ptk. Areas of
fog will be tougher to nail down across the south as cloud remnants
from previous days convection slowly decrease, though signs of slight
visibility reduction has already begun as of 06z for the southern
terminals. Will continue to monitor for any amendments as needed.

Winds remain light through the night and will pickup during the day
out of the southeast with diurnal cumulus development. Potential
exists for showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. Scattered
nature of this activity leaves confidence low and will keep mention
out of tafs.

For dtw... Potential exists for patchy dense fog to develop around
dtw. Ceiling and visibility could drop to ifr at times throughout
the night. Ceilings look to remain at or below 5,000 ft throughout
the night and into Sunday afternoon.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* moderate for ceiling visibility down to 200ft and or 1 2 mile.

* moderate to high for ceiling 5 kft or less this morning into the
afternoon.

Prev discussion
Issued at 339 pm edt Sat aug 18 2018
discussion... Corrected for wording
biggest change to the forecasting period as discussed in the 16z
update is the increase in pops from slight chance to high-end chance
as latest 12z hi-res model guidance and internal probabilistic
guidance has trended towards higher rain and thunderstorm chances.

Low-level convergence caused by an a lake boundary coupled with weak
divergence aloft in conjunction with MLCAPE values ranging between
1000 - 1200 j kg has and will continue to provide a source for
showers and convection. Main focus for shower and convection
initiation will take place across the metro area up into flint and
the southern region of the thumb (tuscola and sanilac) as this is
the area where the boundary is expected to move into, coinciding
with peak CAPE values. Severe weather is not anticipated as lack of
meaningful shear and modest mid-level lapse rates hold across SE mi
through the afternoon. Storm mode will be pulse storms with isolated
to scattered coverage. Otherwise, precipitation chances will
diminish throughout the evening as diurnal heating diminishes,
cutting off the lake breeze and lowering capes.

Main weather concern for the overnight period will be the
development of patchy fog, with the possibility to see areas of
locally dense fog. Surface rh will remain high overnight (>90%),
especially for areas that do see rain showers thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Another plus for fog development will be
light winds in the low to mid-levels that will prevent any mixing.

However, model discrepancies still exist regarding cloud cover and
how well the mid-levels of the atmosphere dry up overnight. 17z hrrr
and rap runs hold light winds and high rh up to 850 mb, with dry
conditions aloft from 700 mb up, conducive for fog formation. Some
hints that a stratus deck at 700mb may advect north into the metro
region overnight which may hamper meaningful fog development,
however, latest MOS guidance suggests potential clearing of cloud
cover across metro region overnight. Overall, tri-cities up into bad
axe saw pockets of dense fog last night, and with calmer winds and
potential dry conditions aloft, opted for patchy fog across cwa.

Evening overnight crew may amend forecast if dense fog looks
probable for any morning commutes.

Additional isolated to scattered rain showers will again be possible
on Sunday as low-level convergence is again the the cause of
forcing, coupled with a weak shortwave aloft that swings through se
mi between 12z - 00z. Additionally, weak divergence aloft may help
precipitation development more-so for the late afternoon and evening
hours as a right entrance region of a weak jet clips SE mi.

Otherwise, with a similar air mass in place, highs will again peak
in the low to mid-80s (upper-70s along the shoreline) as conditions
remain humid.

The next chance for widespread likely showers will start to move in
across SE mi throughout Tuesday morning as an upper-level wave,
currently stationed just east of idaho, strengthens and digs into
mo ia, before opening and pushing northeast into michigan. WAA ahead
of the low will transport subtropical air into SE mi ahead of
precipitation, pushing pw values between 1.80 - 2.00 inches by tue
12z.

Upper trough axis and strengthening surface low pressure reflection
still on track to move through central lower michigan during the day
Tuesday. Plenty of moisture advection ahead of the system will lead
to numerous showers and thunderstorms through the day as the height
fall axis tracks overhead. Gusty winds during the afternoon will be
possible given enhanced pressure gradient, and highs will reach the
mid to upper 70s under overcast skies. A secondary shortwave
dropping through from northwestern ontario will sustain a lesser
chance for precipitation overnight into early Wednesday. With this
second shortwave comes a surge of cooler, drier canadian air with
850mb temps just below 10c. This translates to surface high temps
only reaching the mid 70s on Wednesday. High pressure will build
into the area from the upper midwest with heights aloft rebounding
through the remainder of the week. As a result, quiet weather
expected from Wednesday through next Saturday. Highs will gradually
moderate back into the low 80s by the weekend.

Marine...

high pressure settling into the central lakes region will aid in
slackening the wind field over lake huron during the evening. Light
flow is expect to persist into Monday. Winds will increase from the
southeast later Monday as a stronger storm system approaches the
region. Strong northwest flow and much higher wave conditions are
expected late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Aa
discussion... Am tf
marine... ... .Mann
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 5 mi65 min E 5.1 G 7 74°F 1015.6 hPa (-0.3)
45147 - Lake St Clair 11 mi65 min SE 5.8 G 7.8 75°F 76°F1014.4 hPa (+0.3)
AGCM4 25 mi35 min 69°F 1015.4 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 43 mi45 min E 11 G 12 75°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 47 mi41 min 71°F 1015.1 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 49 mi41 min S 2.9 G 5.1 70°F 1015.3 hPa65°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI7 mi72 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F68°F84%1015.2 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI15 mi2.2 hrsENE 610.00 miOvercast72°F72°F100%0 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI18 mi70 minNNE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy75°F66°F76%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4NW3NW4NW3N4N5N5NE6NE5E5SE5E6E9SE7CalmE10E9SE5E3E6E7E5CalmSE3
1 day agoSW7SW6W7W4W3W6W4W6W54CalmNW4W5W3S6SW53W6N7N4CalmN34N3
2 days agoS8S6S5S4S3S5SE5S5SW6SW6SW9SW7S4S7S8SW7S6S7S5CalmS6S7SW10SW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.