Thursday, October18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe Farms, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:47AMSunset 6:45PM Thursday October 18, 2018 2:08 PM EDT (18:08 UTC) Moonrise 3:11PMMoonset 12:27AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ422 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0041.000000t0000z-181017t1615z/ 1145 Am Edt Wed Oct 17 2018
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Harbor beach to port sanilac mi... Lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac 5nm off shore to us/canadian border... Lake huron from port sanilac to port huron 5nm off shore to us/canadian border... Port sanilac to port huron mi... St. Clair river... The showers have moved out of the warned area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters. However, waterspouts will continue to be possible the remainder of the day. Lat...lon 4357 8213 4300 8242 4297 8241 4295 8243 4300 8247 4322 8257 4362 8263 4364 8213 time...mot...loc 1432z 311deg 26kt 4287 8193
LCZ422 Expires:201810171554;;326118 FZUS73 KDTX 171545 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1145 AM EDT WED OCT 17 2018 LCZ422-LHZ442-443-463-464-171554-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe Farms city, MI
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location: 42.4, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 181653
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1253 pm edt Thu oct 18 2018

Aviation
Southwest gradient will hold steady with high pressure anchored to
the southeast and a cold front taking shape over the high plains.

Exceedingly dry column will ensure clear skies through the period.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* none.

Prev discussion
Issued at 341 am edt Thu oct 18 2018
discussion...

seasonably cold resident airmass now firmly entrenched throughout
the region, noting early morning temperatures currently settling
below freezing. Moderation of the existing thermal profile will
prove modest today, owing to the limited thermal advection as
surface ridging only slowly exits eastward and effectively delays
the onset of greater low level southwest flow. The advent of
gradually increasing upper heights as the mean trough axis releases
to the northeast will leave a relatively standard response off the
cold morning readings. Afternoon temperatures projected to reach the
upper 40s to lower 50s. Increasing stability and depth to the dry
layer contained within the background of confluent mid level
northwest flow will afford plenty of insolation potential. However,
a period of greater lake michigan moisture flux within the emerging
southwest gradient may support some downstream expansion of
stratocumulus into the flint and saginaw valley regions this
afternoon.

Shortwave upper ridge axis currently draped across the midwest will
slip through the region tonight. Ensuing increase in low-mid level
warm air advection under strengthening southwest flow will
subsequently provide an additional upward trend in temperatures both
tonight and Friday. Limited radiational cooling potential tonight
despite a mostly clear sky, given the likelihood of a well mixed
boundary layer condition maintained by the firm southwest gradient.

Lows of upper 30s in the coldest locales. Some increase in mid cloud
funneling downstream of the next system could muddle the overall
diurnal temperature response on Friday. Otherwise, pure advective
component alone should support highs of mid to upper 50s. Turning
gusty by afternoon within a moderately mixed late day boundary
layer. Gusts 25 to 30 mph, highest saginaw valley and thumb region.

Closed mid level circulation fixated over the four corners region
will release a piece of energy into the southern periphery of the
mean northern stream flow over the next 24 hours. This PV anomaly
will accelerate eastward on Friday, arriving over southeast michigan
early Friday night immediately in advance of a rapidly amplifying
longer wave northern stream trough. This will provide a window for
shower development within the associated uptick in mid level ascent
and along the attendant cold frontal boundary, although somewhat
limited in potential as greater theta-e advection remains south of
the region.

Strong height falls will descend over the great lakes during the
first half of the weekend, leaving high amplitude troughing to
define conditions throughout the duration of the weekend. This
translates into another stretch of well below normal temperatures -
850 mb temperatures bottoming out at -7 to -9c Sunday morning.

Initial period of modest cold air advection commences early Saturday
in the wake of the lead cold front, with a secondary stronger surge
likely tied to the inbound mid level trough axis late Saturday into
Saturday night. Another day of gusty conditions given the underlying
pattern of CAA and prospects for a deep mixed layer. Precipitation
potential Saturday and Saturday night less defined at this stage,
owing to uncertainty in placement of stronger PVA streaming through
the trough and overall moisture quality depth. Outgoing forecast
will maintain a simplistic chance mention during this period. Higher
confidence for dry conditions during the latter half of the weekend,
the region residing within the increasingly subsident region
contained along the backside of the departing trough axis.

Marine...

marine wind backs to the southwest today as high pressure builds
across the ohio valley and speed increases tonight as low pressure
moves into northern ontario. The strongest wind tonight will be
across saginaw bay and central lake huron where gusts around 30
knots will be common. A gust near gale force remains possible
tonight but is expected to be marginal and brief as subsidence and
low level warm advection continuously lower the mixed layer through
the night and into Friday morning. The low pressure system then
deepens considerably Friday afternoon and night which ramps up
potential for southwest gales with more substantial magnitude and
duration. Small craft advisories are in effect tonight and lead into
a gale watch late Friday through Friday night. Moderate northwest
wind trailing the front continues Saturday but is projected to
remain below gales through Saturday night. The weekend finishes with
high pressure moving across the central great lakes Sunday.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Gale watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for
lhz362-363-421-462-463.

Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 4 am edt Saturday
for lhz441>443.

Gale watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for lhz361.

Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Saturday for lhz422.

Small craft advisory until 2 pm edt Friday for lhz421.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Jvc
discussion... Mr
marine... ... .Bt
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 5 mi69 min SW 8 G 11 44°F 1033.5 hPa (-0.7)
45147 - Lake St Clair 11 mi69 min WSW 3.9 G 7.8 40°F 53°F1033.9 hPa
AGCM4 25 mi39 min 42°F 55°F1032.3 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 43 mi69 min SW 7 G 8 43°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 47 mi39 min 46°F 1031.1 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 49 mi39 min WSW 9.9 G 13 44°F 1031.1 hPa20°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Last
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NW13
G19
NW13
G20
NW7
G18
NW10
G16
NW7
G13
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G14
W4
G7
W6
G11
NW11
G18
N6
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N11
G19
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G23
W15
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G16
SW8
G15
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G12
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G11
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G11
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G14
SW6
G15
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G14
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G12
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G12
W7
W4
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G9
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G22
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2 days
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NW11
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G21
W16
G25
NW14
G21
NW12
G18
NW11
G17
NW7
G11
NW5
G10
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G9
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G7
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G10
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G11
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G13
SW9
G12
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G17
W12
G20
SW15
G20

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI7 mi76 minWNW 810.00 miFair45°F23°F42%1034 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI15 mi73 minVar 610.00 miFair46°F25°F44%1033.7 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI18 mi74 minSW 710.00 miFair48°F20°F34%1033.5 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW15
G23
NW14
G23
NW11
G20
NW13
G21
NW10
G17
NW14NW6W5W6W6N3N5NW4N4N3CalmCalmCalmSW4W3W6SW6W8SW8
1 day agoSW15
G23
SW16
G22
SW17
G24
SW10
G20
SW10
G22
SW12SW11SW9SW10SW10--SW10SW13
G18
SW11SW7W10W7W4W4W8W9NW11
G19
NW15
G23
W16
G21
2 days agoW12
G20
W14
G24
W9
G22
W16
G23
W9W8
G20
W8W6W4W5W5W3SW5W3SW5SW3SW4SW6SW5SW8SW14
G22
SW17
G23
W13
G25
SW17
G23

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.