Sunday, June16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe Farms, MI

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Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 9:12PM Sunday June 16, 2019 1:03 PM EDT (17:03 UTC) Moonrise 7:39PMMoonset 4:27AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ422 458 Am Edt Thu Jun 13 2019
.a strong Thunderstorm approaching the waters... The areas affected include... St. Clair river... Lake st. Clair... Detroit river... At 458 am edt, doppler radar indicated a strong Thunderstorm, capable of producing winds to up 20 knots. This Thunderstorm was located near st. Clair shores, moving northeast at 30 knots. Locations impacted include... NEw baltimore, grosse pointe, st. Clair shores, st. Clair, mt clemens harbor of refuge, algonac, st clair flats old channel light, metro beach metropark marina and belle isle. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds up to 20 knots, locally higher waves, lightning strikes, and heavy downpours. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes. && lat...lon 4276 8247 4261 8252 4255 8259 4254 8266 4237 8283 4232 8305 4235 8306 4238 8295 4244 8291 4254 8291 4259 8285 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8261 4269 8260 4265 8255 4276 8251 4289 8252 4297 8246
LCZ422 Expires:201906131000;;000806 FZUS73 KDTX 130858 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 458 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019 LCZ422-423-460-131000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe Farms city, MI
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location: 42.4, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 161057
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
657 am edt Sun jun 16 2019

Aviation
Moisture-rich boundary layer axis and stalled front oriented east to
west across southern michigan down into northern indiana and ohio
has allowed lifr ifr CIGS to hold across the metro terminals, north
up to ptk. This axis of moisture is expected to hold across southern
michigan through the morning and afternoon and will bring the high
potential to see continued ifr CIGS focused over the metro terminals.

Periods of lifr CIGS tied to rain showers will remain possible for
both the metro terminals up to ptk later this morning into the
afternoon as an approaching upper-level disturbance and low-level
convergence produce enough forcing for daytime showers. With the
strongest instability holding south of the michigan border,
thunderstorm concerns are low at this time. Otherwise, MVFR CIGS or
higher expected north of ptk as strongest moisture axis generally
holds south through the day. A gradual rise in ceilings expected late
tonight overnight as low-level convergence weakens and axis of high
boundary layer moisture sags southward.

For dtw... A front stalled near the ohio border and ifr CIGS hold
through the morning and likely the afternoon, with a possible brief
return to lifr CIGS tied to rain showers. Morning winds around 5
knots to veer more easterly during the afternoon, before returning to
the northeast by late evening.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* high for ceilings AOB 5kft today and tonight.

Prev discussion
Issued at 403 am edt Sun jun 16 2019
discussion...

the surface cold front sliding just south of the ohio border at
press time holds well-defined structure in surface temperature and
dewpoint fields extending northward toward the thumb region. Expect
a few light showers before sunrise with pockets of drizzle and fog
within the moisture laden boundary layer along and immediately north
of the wind shift.

The front doesn't move much farther south during the morning as low
pressure rides west to east along it. The low pressure center is a
surface reflection of the hybrid mid level MCV arising from the ohio
valley convection and the short wave over the upper midwest. A new
pattern of showers sets up during the day as a result of these
larger scale elements with the forecast working to determine
coverage and northward extent across southern lower michigan. Model
analysis fields also show a mid level theta-e ridge drawn to the
west and north from the frontal zone into this hybrid mid level wave
structure. Weakly backed mid level wind and equally weak theta-e
advection across the mid levels of the frontal zone are expected to
support showers ongoing off the north flank of the MCV and or new
development over southern lower michigan during the morning which
continues during the afternoon as the theta-e ridge moves overhead.

The latest model runs indicate a very weak wind field and show a
filling trend in the mid level wave structure during the day which
suggests a conservative approach to pops while awaiting some clarity
in radar trends.

Filling of the mid level short wave MCV hybrid during the afternoon
returns flow aloft to more of a zonal or subtle short wave ridge
configuration over the great lakes region tonight. Global and
regional model output from the 00z cycle indicate modest building of
high pressure across northern portions of the great lakes that
nudges the front farther south into the ohio valley, far enough
south for dry conditions across SE michigan but likely not far
enough for any meaningful clearing trend south of the saginaw valley
and northern thumb tonight through Monday. This keeps temperatures
on the mild side during the night and in check during the day until
Tuesday when a greater percentage of sunshine helps with a modest
warming trend. Rain probability is on the low side as lower michigan
remains between larger scale weather features through mid week.

Marine...

light north-northeast flow this morning will hold throughout the day
across the saginaw bay region and lake huron, but will veer slightly
to the east for lake st. Clair down to western lake erie as a weak
low pressure system travels east across the ohio valley. Otherwise,
a stalled frontal boundary and a series of upper-level disturbances
will bring the chance to see scattered showers mainly across
southern lake huron, lake st. Clair, and lake erie late this morning
and afternoon. Given that the bulk of the instability is located
south of michigan, thunderstorms potential is very limited. Rain
potential will diminish by the evening hours as winds back to the
north-northeast heading into Monday morning. High pressure will then
gradually build in from the north for the first half of this week
which will aid in keeping winds light.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Lakeshore flood advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for miz048.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Am
discussion... Bt
marine... ... .Am
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 5 mi64 min NNE 14 G 15 58°F 1011.5 hPa (+0.3)
45147 - Lake St Clair 11 mi64 min NNE 12 G 14 58°F 61°F1 ft1010.3 hPa (+0.4)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 43 mi44 min NNE 16 G 18 60°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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NE4
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G16

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI7 mi71 minNE 85.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist58°F55°F93%1010.9 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI15 mi69 minN 410.00 miLight Rain56°F56°F100%1011.7 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI18 mi68 minNNE 65.00 miLight Rain55°F52°F91%1011.8 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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SW10W9W3W3CalmNE5NE5NE7NE7NE5NE6N4N4N4N4N7N6NE8NE8NE7
1 day agoW16
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SW10SW8SW7SW10S10SW14SW16SW12
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2 days ago3W6NW12
G17
N7NW8
G15
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G28
NW10NW12
G22
5
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NW7CalmW6W8W7W7W5W6W6W6W9W10SW9SW14W12
G19

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.