Tuesday, May23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe Farms, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 8:56PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 4:54 AM EDT (08:54 UTC) Moonrise 3:53AMMoonset 5:19PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ422 330 Pm Edt Sun May 21 2017
.thunderstorms approaching the waters... The areas affected include... NEarshore waters from port sanilac to port huron mi... St. Clair river... Lake st. Clair... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... At 328 pm edt...doppler radar indicated Thunderstorms along a line extending from 13 nm northwest of new baltimore to grosse pointe to Monroe harbor...moving northeast at 30 knots. Strong Thunderstorms will be near... Detroit river light and st. Clair shores around 345 pm edt. Lake erie metropark harbor around 350 pm edt. Metro beach metropark marina...mt clemens harbor of refuge...st clair flats old channel light...elizabeth park marina and gibraltar around 355 pm edt. Grosse ile around 400 pm edt. Lakeport and new baltimore around 410 pm edt. Algonac around 415 pm edt. Lexington around 420 pm edt. Other locations impacted by Thunderstorms include estral beach...stony point...woodland beach...detroit beach and gibraltar. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4196 8332 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8261 4264 8256 4265 8255 4301 8247 4335 8259 4343 8251 4312 8236 4289 8247 4262 8252 4255 8259 4254 8266 4237 8283 4229 8309 4205 8315 4196 8311 4180 8332 4179 8349
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ422 Expires:201705212130;;989569 FZUS73 KDTX 211930 MWSDTX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 330 PM EDT SUN MAY 21 2017 LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ443-212130-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe Farms city, MI
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location: 42.4, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 230714
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
314 am edt Tue may 23 2017

Discussion
Models in decent agreement with the forecast over the next couple of
days, especially for the first 24 to 36 hours. Differences then
noted Wednesday afternoon and evening with the location of the
trowal/deformation on the north side of the upper low which leads to
less confidence in this features evolution.

Today will be focused on a wave lifting out of western wi and
eastern ia as the main upper low over mn dives south. Forcing along
the 850-700 mb front, which will remain nearly stationary over
central lower mi, along with diurnal heating will be the trigger for
likely chances of afternoon showers and storms north and west of a
ozw to sandusky line. Ml capes only reach about 500 j/kg this
afternoon across the northern forecast area, so expect a likely
showers with a chance of thunderstorms afternoon and into the early
evening.

The forecast area is between features for much of the overnight into
Wednesday morning. The shortwave that brings this afternoon's
convection pushes northeast while any showers around the upper low
stay west and south of the forecast area.

From Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night will be watching
the development of a trowal in a region of strong and deep
deformation and fgen on the northeast flank of the upper low that is
diving southeast into the oh and tn valleys. Also some upper support
with a piece of energy rotating around that upper low and good upper
divergence. There is some disagreement with the placement of these
features with the GFS and ECMWF being the farthest north... The nam
and canadian in the farther south camp. Given the position of the
upper low, thinking any errors will be on the north side of the
envelope. Still thinking there will be a good solid rain event for
the southern half of the forecast area, just not widespread 1+ inch
rainfall totals. In addition to the possible error in placement,
precipitable waters only reach 1 to 1.25 inches with modest increase
in theta-e (no theta-e ridging). Suspected the high pops will work
well but that the models are again overdoing the QPF yet again this
spring.

Thursday remains unsettled with cyclonic low level flow with lower
500 mb heights near the upper low. Shortwave ridge with the weak
surface ridge may be enough to keep Friday and Saturday dry (and
warmer on Saturday, closer to average) before the next system moves
through Saturday night and Sunday.

Marine
Relatively light winds will exist today throughout the region as
weak surface troughing lingers. Winds will become northeasterly and
increase tonight and Wednesday as strengthening low pressure lifts
into the ohio valley. This long fetch of moderate onshore flow
could result in waves exceeding small craft advisory threshold for
saginaw bay and southern lake huron late Wednesday and Wednesday
night. Gradual decrease in wind speed and wave heights as low
pressure exits the region Thursday.

Hydrology
Low pressure developing over the ohio valley Wednesday will stall
and intensify through Wednesday night. A band of rain is expected to
develop on the north side of the system and spread into lower
michigan late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Rainfall totals
averaging 0.75 inch are likely with locally higher amounts in
thunderstorms. Ponding of water on area roads and in other prone
areas is likely, especially considering the widespread activity over
the weekend that left the ground saturated in most areas.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1219 am edt Tue may 23 2017
aviation...

a baroclinic zone at 700mb will become increasingly more organized
tonight north of I 69, ahead of the amplifying midlevel trough over
the upper mississippi river valley. Uncertainty persists with
overall potential and longevity for precipitation as a shortwave
ridging component will also work across the area. Quite a little
consensus forming that a duration of light rain will be possible
under this front over the tri cities region. Included a tempo group
for the mid morning hours but did not want to get anymore
pessimistic than MVFR for cigs. Otherwise, high confidence continues
that little to no precipitation chances will exist Tuesday morning
for the detroit terminals. Most recent trend has been for higher
probs creeping into the percentages for greater than .25 inch qpf
Tuesday afternoon north of I 69. Wind is not expected to become an
issue during the next 24 to 36 hours.

//dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

Dtx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Rbp
marine... ... .Mr
hydrology... .Mr
aviation... ..Mr
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 5 mi55 min SSW 5.1 G 8 60°F 1012.9 hPa (-1.3)
AGCM4 25 mi55 min 58°F 1012.3 hPa (-1.3)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 43 mi55 min S 13 G 14 60°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 47 mi55 min 60°F 1011.7 hPa (-1.2)
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 49 mi55 min SW 8 G 11 60°F 1011.7 hPa (-1.2)47°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Detroit, Detroit City Airport, MI7 mi62 minS 410.00 miFair58°F50°F75%1012.4 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI15 mi57 minS 510.00 miOvercast55°F52°F91%1012.4 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI18 mi61 minSSW 610.00 miFair61°F45°F57%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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W10SW6SW5SW4S3SW5SW5S7S4
1 day agoE7E6E8E3E5SE6S6S9S10S9S10SW14
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S8SW11
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W10W7W4W6W6NW4W7W9
2 days agoNE10N6NE8NE13
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E13SE7
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E9E11E8E11E9E9E10E12
G18
E10E7CalmN5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.