Monday, December11, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe Farms, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:50AMSunset 5:00PM Monday December 11, 2017 4:28 AM EST (09:28 UTC) Moonrise 1:09AMMoonset 1:44PM Illumination 45% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ422 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0056.000000t0000z-171015t1730z/ 111 Pm Edt Sun Oct 15 2017
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Lake st. Clair open lake (u.s. Portion)... St. Clair river... The Thunderstorms have moved out of the area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4260 8254 4255 8259 4256 8264 4238 8282 4235 8293 4237 8300 4239 8295 4244 8291 4254 8291 4259 8285 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8261 4265 8259 4264 8256 4276 8251 4283 8251 4283 8247 4276 8247 time...mot...loc 1709z 271deg 36kt 4276 8242 4240 8263
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ422 Expires:201710151721;;908498 FZUS73 KDTX 151711 MWSDTX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 111 PM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017 LCZ422-460-151721-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe Farms city, MI
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location: 42.4, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 110755
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
255 am est Mon dec 11 2017

Discussion
Challenging forecast as phasing merging 6 hr height falls takes
place over the central eastern great lakes this evening tonight.

Lead symmetric upper wave clearly seen on water vapor imagery
tracking through eastern north dakota, with full head of the steam
toward the southeast. Meanwhile, strong PV anomaly descending from
western hudson bay northern manitoba, with trough axis dropping into
western great lakes early this evening, helping to draw the lead
wave over the western ohio valley this afternoon northeast. Still
conflicting signals in the various models on which fgen band will be
most active this evening. The low level one toward the ohio border
or the mid level fgen farther north toward the i-69 corridor. 12z
euro ensemble members also exhibited revealed this high variability
with respect to the MAX qpf axis placement as well. As pointed out
by day shift, the longer the two systems stay separate, the better
chance the snow axis will reside farther south, near ohio border
(see arw nmm), but if phasing occurs sooner and low deepens rapidly,
better chance the higher snow axis will be farther north, along and
possibility north of the i-69 corridor (see 00z NAM gfs). First
things first today, lead isentropic ascent warm advection moisture
advection (2.5 g kg of specific humidity at 700 mb) to lift through
southeast michigan during the day (around noon), which should be
sufficient for up to 1 inch of snow, as warming thermal profiles in
the 850-700 mb layer diminishes the snow to liquid ratios to
traditional 12:1. More intense snowfall rates arriving this evening
with mid level fgen flareup, and brief deformation before system
heads off into the eastern great lakes. The 00z regional gem spreads
the QPF out a bit more during the evening, as trowal 700 mb theta-e
axis sinks southeastward as it pulls away, with the aggressive dry
arctic air arriving between 7-12z. As far as snowfall amounts go,
including the light snow from the daytime hours, 1-4 inch totals
still seem reasonable, and will favor the euro solution highlighting
the middle tier (m-59 i-69) counties with highest totals. This
scenario also has support from the 6z rap13 through 3z Tuesday. An
advisory may be needed as 3 inches in six hours is possible, but due
to uncertainty with the exact placement and bulk of activity now
looking to come just after the evening commute, will defer to day
shift to pull the trigger if need be. As stated earlier, quicker
phasing deepening would tend to put the thumb under the gun for
higher amounts tonight, but it appears the system will come together
just a bit too late to expect much more than 4 inches. Perhaps more
concerning is the possibility of intense lake huron band(s) on
Tuesday backing glancing the northern tip of the thumb region from
port austin to harbor beach area. Based off 00z NAM 925 mb
lift convergence, going to be a real close call, and certainly will
be highlighting the potential for accumulating snow along the
eastern shoreline in hwo.

For rest of southeast michigan, flurries scattered light snow
showers, wind, and cold will be the story for Tuesday as 850 mb fall
into the -18 to -20 c range. Probabilistic guidance suggest wind
gusts in excess of 30 mph, supported by 16-20 mb 6 hr rise fall
pressure couplet tracking through early Tuesday.

Although partial clearing is likely Tuesday night, with the airmass
being so cold, a few flurries will likely be around with any
lingering 925 mb moisture around. Winds coming around to the west
with warm advection push late Wednesday may be sufficient for light
snow, but indications is bulk of the snow with clipper system will
be passing south of the state Wednesday night. Still plenty of
opportunities for additional snow late in the work week into the
weekend as active baroclinic zone looks to be straddling the great
lakes region with temperatures residing fairly close to normal
values.

Marine
Southerly winds will gradually increase today and veer to the
southwest in advance of approaching cold front this evening. The
cold front is quite strong and will bring much colder air over the
lake, leading to unstable conditions. Will be upgrading the gale
watch to a warning with sustained winds peaking near gale force on
Tuesday morning with gusts pushing 45 knots at times. Gales will
arrive rather abruptly late tonight in the wake of this front and
persist into Tuesday evening before subsiding somewhat.

The combination of these gusty winds, very cold air and frequest
wave heights in excess of 10 feet will lead to areas of freezing
spray as well allow conditions suggest most of this spray will hold
in the moderate category so no warning is anticipated. The highest
waves may reach 20 feet over so by midday Tuesday. At that time,
snow squall activity will also begin to consolidate over the
southern basin of lake huron.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1154 pm est Sun dec 10 2017
aviation...

some fluctuation in ceiling heights anticipated during the overnight
and morning periods, as modest northwest wind provides some low
level drying but may prove insufficient to completely clear MVFR
restrictions. Attention then turns to advancing low pressure that
will bring a period of snowfall to the region Monday and Monday
night. Initial period of lighter intensity snowfall expected to
develop during the midday period 16z-20z, where conditions largely
remain at MVFR restrictions outside of the heaviest bursts. Snowfall
intensity will increase during the evening period, with peak
intensity and accumulation potential centered between 7 pm and
midnight. There remains some uncertainty yet in the placement of the
heaviest snowband, but generally expect all locations to witness a
period of ifr during this time.

For dtw... A period of chaotic ceiling heights likely to define the
overnight period, with some residual MVFR restrictions giving way to
generally lowVFR stratus... With some pockets of clearing below 5000
ft still not out of the question during the period. Initial burst
of light snow expected to lift through during the early afternoon
period, providing some minor accumulation of up to an inch. A
second period of potential heavier snow will focus during the late
evening period 00z-05z , where an additional inch or two of
accumulation will be possible under ifr conditions. Winds remain
modest from the south through tomorrow evening.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium confidence for ceilings AOB 5000 feet overnight through
Monday morning, then high Monday afternoon in developing light
snow.

* high confidence in precip type being snow this evening and
again Monday.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Gale warning from 2 am Tuesday to 5 am est Wednesday for lhz362-363-
462>464.

Gale warning from 4 am Tuesday to 4 am est Wednesday for lhz421-
441>443.

Gale warning from 1 am to 11 pm est Tuesday for lhz361.

Gale warning from 4 am to 4 pm est Tuesday for lhz422.

Lake st clair... Small craft advisory from 3 am to 11 pm est Tuesday for lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Small craft advisory from 3 am to 11 pm est Tuesday for lez444.

Discussion... Sf
marine... ... .Dg
aviation... ..Mr
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 5 mi29 min NNW 8 G 9.9 26°F 1017.3 hPa (+1.0)
AGCM4 25 mi41 min 24°F 1016.2 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 43 mi39 min WNW 12 G 14 27°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 47 mi41 min 22°F 1015.9 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 49 mi41 min NNW 8 G 11 21°F 1016 hPa13°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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G16

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI7 mi36 minNNW 710.00 miOvercast26°F19°F75%1017.6 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI15 mi33 minNW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy24°F18°F79%1017.2 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI18 mi34 minNNW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy25°F17°F74%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5SW6SW9W10SW12
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SW14SW11SW11SW11SW11SW9W8W9W9W6NW6NW8NW7NW5NW4N7
1 day agoS8S9S10S9S7SW10S8S9SW6SW8W5NW4NW4NW5NW6NW4W5NW6NW6
G15
NW7NW6NW8W4W5
2 days agoSW9SW7SW12SW13SW11SW15SW11
G19
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G27
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SW10SW11SW7SW7SW7SW12SW9SW10SW7SW9S7S9SW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.