Saturday, February24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe Farms, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 6:17PM Saturday February 24, 2018 10:52 PM EST (03:52 UTC) Moonrise 12:35PMMoonset 2:36AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ422 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0056.000000t0000z-171015t1730z/ 111 Pm Edt Sun Oct 15 2017
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Lake st. Clair open lake (u.s. Portion)... St. Clair river... The Thunderstorms have moved out of the area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4260 8254 4255 8259 4256 8264 4238 8282 4235 8293 4237 8300 4239 8295 4244 8291 4254 8291 4259 8285 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8261 4265 8259 4264 8256 4276 8251 4283 8251 4283 8247 4276 8247 time...mot...loc 1709z 271deg 36kt 4276 8242 4240 8263
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ422 Expires:201710151721;;908498 FZUS73 KDTX 151711 MWSDTX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 111 PM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017 LCZ422-460-151721-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe Farms city, MI
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location: 42.4, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 242359
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
659 pm est Sat feb 24 2018

Aviation
Aviation weather, cig heights, will deteriorate later this evening as
the midlevel occlusion pivots into southeastern michigan ahead of
the strong midlevel trough in wisconsin. Timing from earlier tafs
remains on track, gauging by impressive moisture transport that is
now occurring over northern sections of indiana. Main addition in
this set of TAF forecasts was to include a non convective low level
wind shear group as south, southeasterly flow of 45 knots is
forecasted as low as 700 ft agl. Will continue to monitor
observation trends this evening on thunderstorm activity adding to
the tafs. Will amend as needed. Cold front will sweep through 10-12z
Wednesday allowing for mixed surface conditions and windgusts
reaching exceeding 35 knots.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for CIGS below 5 kft through TAF period.

* high for ptype as rain.

* low for thunderstorm tonight.

* medium for reaching crosswind threshold hold 10-16z Sunday.

Prev discussion
Issued at 324 pm est Sat feb 24 2018
discussion...

a high pressure will drift northeast of the great lakes this
afternoon resulting in a light easterly surface flow. Inversion has
kept low level moisture and clouds trapped with additional clouds
moving in from the southwest. This will keep mostly cloudy
conditions through this afternoon and evening. High temperatures
this afternoon remain on track to top out in the upper 30s and low
40s. A few light rain showers earlier today across the lower
portions of the area along the ohio border have cleared out. There
will a brief break in rainfall during the early evening before the
next system tracks northeast into the great lakes and increases rain
chances after 0z tonight.

A dynamic mid level trough is ejecting out of the rockies and into
the plains this afternoon. The trough will become negatively tilted
as it lifts northeastward into the great lakes. A surface low is set
to develop in association with the upper trough and strengthen
overnight as it reaches the western lower great lakes. The center of
the surface low is forecast to move across the upper peninsula by
around midnight. At the same time, the low and mid level jets will
strengthen around the base of the trough and bring with it favorable
lift across southeast michigan. Strong southwesterly flow will drive
some warm and moist advection up through the ohio valley. Some of
the higher dewpoints look to remain south of the michigan border,
but there will be enough moisture available within the large scale
ascent and frontal convergence to produce widespread rainfall
tonight into tomorrow morning. Highest theta-e may also stay south,
but mid level lapse rates of around 6 c kg would support a chance of
a thunderstorms for the southern half of the cwa. Even though the
better moisture may likely remain to the south, there will still be
potential to see pockets of localized heavy rainfall with the
passage of this system.

The low pressure system will send a cold front through michigan
tomorrow morning. Deep dry air advection will get underway amidst
somewhat weak cold air advection. However, the presence of strong
winds just above the surface and strong isentropic decent in the
immediate wake of the front will result in strong winds reaching the
surface during the morning hours. The highest wind gust potential
should occur right behind the front within strong downward ascent
and last for a brief period. However, gusty southwest winds should
linger into the late morning and early afternoon as diurnal mixing
will begin to tap into those strong winds aloft. Peak wind gusts
residing in a narrow corridor behind the front will be nearing wind
advisory criteria in the 35 to 45 mph range.

High pressure will begin to build across the ohio valley Sunday
night. Winds will be on the lighter side for Monday and remain out
of the west. Weak ridge moving overhead will allow quite, dry
weather to start the work work. Low temperatures to start the day
will be slightly below freezing for the majority of southeast
michigan. High temperatures on Monday afternoon will remain above
normal in the mid to upper 40s, with a few locations across metro
and the southern michigan border reach 50 degrees.

Dry, mild conditions will continue on Tuesday with highs in the mid
to upper 50s while high pressure moves to the eastern seaboard.

Return southwesterly flow will then advect increasing moisture to
the region late Tuesday while a weak frontal boundary sags southward
before stalling across lower michigan on Wednesday. Along this
boundary, some light rain showers will be possible across southeast
michigan Tuesday night into Wednesday as mild temperatures continue
with highs in the low to mid 50s.

Low pressure developing in conjunction with a potent upper wave
ejecting out of the southwest us will then bring the next chance for
widespread precipitation to the region late next week. Model
guidance is in good agreement that low pressure will slowly track
into lower michigan on Thursday before transferring energy to a
coastal low Thursday night into Friday. Widespread rain appears
likely on Thursday as temperatures again approach 50 across much of
se michigan. Cold air wrapping into the system Thursday night will
bring the chance for a rain snow mix before precipitation gradually
tapers off on Friday.

Marine...

rapidly deepening low pressure tracking through the western great
lakes tonight will send a strong cold front through the central
great lakes around sunrise Sunday. Southwest gale force winds will
develop behind the front, persisting for much of Sunday as colder
air surges to the area. Strongest winds look to be near the
straights and across the central lake huron, where they look to
slightly exceed 40 knots Sunday morning. Winds will drop below gales
Sunday evening and continue to diminish Sunday night into Monday as
high pressure ridges into the region from the southwest.

Hydrology...

river levels continue to slowly come down, but moderate flooding was
still occuring along the saginaw and hamburg rivers. A strong low
pressure system will track northwest of the region, with widespread
rain showers developing late this evening, and continuing tonight.

Rainfall amounts look to range between a quarter of an inch to a
half of an inch. This rainfall is not expected to have any
significant impacts to current river flooding. Dry weather then
expected tomorrow through at least Tuesday.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Gale warning from 7 am to 7 pm est Sunday for lhz363-421-422-
441>443-462>464.

Gale warning from 10 pm this evening to 7 pm est Sunday for lhz361-
362.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Cb
discussion... Aa jd
marine... ... .Sf
hydrology... .Sf
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 5 mi52 min E 6 G 8.9 33°F 1014.2 hPa (-4.1)
AGCM4 25 mi52 min 36°F 1013.2 hPa (-4.6)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 43 mi52 min E 23 G 26 33°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 47 mi52 min 37°F 1013.7 hPa (-4.4)
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 49 mi52 min SE 12 G 14 36°F 1013.9 hPa (-4.4)32°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI7 mi59 minESE 118.00 miLight Rain36°F32°F86%1014 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI15 mi56 minE 710.00 miOvercast36°F35°F100%1014.2 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI18 mi57 minE 7 G 1510.00 miLight Rain37°F32°F84%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW10
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NW7W7N7N63N4N6NE3CalmNE4NE7NE9E9NE9NE8NE10NE9NE9E6E10E11E11E11
1 day agoNE7NE6E10E11E6SE10E9SE9SE5SE6S6S5S4SW6SW11
G16
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2 days agoNE6NE7NE7NE9NE8NE10NE9NE7NE7NE7NE8NE6NE7NE11E9NE9NE10
G15
NE10NE9NE6NE7E6NE9NE10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.