Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe Farms, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 6:13PM Friday February 22, 2019 3:29 AM EST (08:29 UTC) Moonrise 10:06PMMoonset 9:20AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LCZ422 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0041.000000t0000z-181017t1615z/ 1145 Am Edt Wed Oct 17 2018
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Harbor beach to port sanilac mi... Lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac 5nm off shore to us/canadian border... Lake huron from port sanilac to port huron 5nm off shore to us/canadian border... Port sanilac to port huron mi... St. Clair river... The showers have moved out of the warned area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters. However, waterspouts will continue to be possible the remainder of the day. Lat...lon 4357 8213 4300 8242 4297 8241 4295 8243 4300 8247 4322 8257 4362 8263 4364 8213 time...mot...loc 1432z 311deg 26kt 4287 8193
LCZ422 Expires:201810171554;;903658 FZUS73 KDTX 171545 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1145 AM EDT WED OCT 17 2018 LCZ422-LHZ442-443-463-464-171554-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe Farms city, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.4, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kdtx 220824
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
324 am est Fri feb 22 2019

Discussion
Sfc high pressure will track across lower mi today before traversing
the eastern lakes this evening. The sfc high will precede a broad
mid level ridge axis which will expand into lower mi later today
into tonight. Aside from some occasional mid high level clouds
(particularly during the first half of the day), daytime insolation
and some weak low level warm air advection within the return flow of
the departing sfc high will boost afternoon highs to the mid 30s to
near 40. There will be at least some opportunity for decent
radiational cooling early tonight (supportive of lows in the
upper teens to mid 20s) before mid high level clouds increase late.

The upper wave now churning over SRN california is forecast to
advance across the southern rockies tonight before lifting into ern
kansas Saturday afternoon. This system is forecast to undergo some
phasing with the strong subtropical jet as it emerges in the lee of
the southern rockies. The result is a rapid deepening as it lifts to
the northeast on Saturday. The wave is forecast to remain highly
compact as it rotates into wisconsin Sat night and upper mi sun
morning. Overall, the gfs, ECMWF and canadian have been fairly
consistent the last several runs in showing a rapid deepening of the
sfc low as it lifts from kansas Saturday to cntl or ERN upper mi
Sunday morning (from 992 mb to around 979 mb), with further
deepening (possibly to 972 mb) as it lifts to northern quebec
Sunday. The NAM solution is a bit faster and weaker. Given the
continuity at this point, the slower deeper solutions will be
preferred.

As this system intensifies as it lifts toward the WRN great lakes on
Saturday, a broad region of moist isentropic ascent will overspread
se mi during the afternoon and evening. Given that the ascent does
not really arrive until afternoon evening, diurnal heating and
persistent low level warm air advection should support mostly rain
as the precip type. During the course of the evening, the better
deep layer moisture transport is forecast across ohio into the ern
great lakes. However, the persistent ascent with the mid level
branch of the warm conveyor will still support widespread light rain
across SE mi Sat night. Despite a narrow region of weak elevated
convective instability Sat night (showalter 0 to -1), strong ascent
due to very large mid level height falls associated with the
deepening wave will likely produce a short period of decent
convection (elevated thunderstorms) Sat night before the mid level
dry slot takes hold by Sun morning.

Given the deep and compact nature of this system, there will be a
strong low level wind field associated with it. 2-4k ft level winds
are forecast to range from 50 to 60 knots from overnight Saturday
through the day Sunday. Model soundings and isentropic cross
sectional analysis suggests that downward momentum transport into
the boundary layer with the sfc occlusion Sat night may not be
efficient enough in producing strong winds. Better large scale
descent is expected to arrive later Sunday morning, with a deepening
mixed layer through low level cold air advection and diurnal
processes also supporting an increase in the sfc winds through
Sunday afternoon. There remains a high probability that widespread
wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph will be prevalent through the daylight
hours on Sunday, with at least a chance for gusts to reach 60 mph.

This will likely prompt the issuance of some type of wind headlines
over the next couple forecast cycles.

Deep wrap around moisture will support some rain showers
transitioning to snow showers as the column cools on Sunday. Several
solutions lift the deep layer moisture north of the forecast area
fairly quickly Sun afternoon. So a bit of uncertainty at this time
as to whether any type of organized snow showers can be established
before moisture strips away.

The low level flow will transition toward more zonal early next
week. There is a fair amount of model disagreement at this stage as
to whether or not the low level baroclinic zone will become
established across the southern great lakes or farther to the south,
affecting precip chances by the middle of next week.

Marine
Passing high pressure today will bring quiet marine conditions
before a rapidly deepening low pressure system lifts out of the
plains on Saturday into the straits of mackinac by Sunday afternoon
and eventually ontario quebec Sunday night. Winds begin picking up
out of the southeast with gusts of 25-30 knots late Saturday night.

Winds then begin veering to the southwest and eventually to the west
by Sunday afternoon as sustained winds reach weak to moderate gales
over marine zones. Wind gusts into Sunday evening across central and
northern lake huron will increase to storm force with strong gales
for the remaining marine zones. Storm watches and gale watches are
now in effect starting Sunday morning and continuing into Monday
morning. Though winds are the main focus this weekend, thunderstorms
will be possible on Saturday affecting at least western lake erie to
southern lake huron.

Hydrology
Strong southerly flow in advance of the strong winter storm system
lifting through the area will pump a warm and moist airmass into the
state. Widespread rain is expected to impact southeast michigan late
Saturday through Sunday night with thunderstorms possible Sunday
night. Total rainfall amounts in excess of 0.25 inch will be
possible, higher amounts for those areas impacted by thunderstorm
activity. A push of warm air Saturday into Saturday night will
likely melt the snow on the ground. While this and the rainfall will
lead to some runoff, the liquid content in the snowpack and rainfall
amounts expected should be insufficient to cause flooding concerns.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1153 pm est Thu feb 21 2019
aviation...

high pressure maintainsVFR as it passes over the central great
lakes during the rest of tonight. Late evening observations support
the trend holding stratocu across northern lower michigan as light
northwest wind becomes calm or light and variable through the
morning. With minimal cloud concern and the weather otherwise dry,
favorable aviation conditions continue into Friday evening with only
a light northwest wind veering northeast by morning and then toward
the south by mid afternoon.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* none

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Gale watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for
lhz462>464.

Gale watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for lhz421-
422-441>443.

Storm watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for
lhz361>363.

Lake st clair... Gale watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Gale watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for lez444.

Discussion... Sc
marine... ... .Sc
hydrology... .Aa
aviation... ..Bt
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 5 mi89 min WNW 1.9 G 5.1 28°F 1027.1 hPa (+1.0)
AGCM4 25 mi41 min 26°F 32°F1026.8 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 43 mi89 min NNW 8 G 8 31°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 47 mi47 min 28°F 1026.6 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 49 mi47 min NW 5.1 G 6 26°F 1026.6 hPa18°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
Last
24hr
W13
G23
W10
G17
W10
G21
W11
G14
W16
G27
W12
G21
W12
G19
W14
G22
W11
G22
W15
G26
W13
G20
W12
G16
W13
G17
NW10
G16
NW4
G7
NW7
G11
NW6
G11
NW5
G10
NW5
NW8
G11
NW8
G11
NW4
G7
NW6
G9
NW4
1 day
ago
SE6
SE10
G14
SE10
G13
SE7
G12
SE7
E5
G9
SE7
G10
SE9
G16
SE14
G18
SE10
G13
S16
SE17
G21
S14
G20
S12
G16
S14
G21
S12
G22
S11
G14
SW8
G11
SW9
SW8
G15
SW11
G16
W10
G16
W16
G23
W15
G24
2 days
ago
SW2
W5
W5
W6
NW2
NE3
NE5
NE5
NE4
NE5
E6
E7
SE3
E3
E4
SE3
S4
S5
SE3
E3
SE3
S4
G7
S5

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI7 mi36 minN 09.00 miFair27°F19°F72%1028.3 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI15 mi93 minN 010.00 miFair26°F21°F83%1027.2 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI18 mi34 minN 010.00 miFair27°F16°F66%1028.1 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
Last 24hrW11
G22
W12W11W10
G19
W11
G19
SW13
G19
W13
G21
W12
G21
W13W11
G19
W11W15
G20
W11W13W10W6W6NW4NW6NW7W4W4NW4Calm
1 day agoE8E9E11E10E10NE7E15
G23
E11
G20
E12E12E11
G22
E16
G21
SE12
G18
E12E12SE8S5CalmSW7W10
G21
SW10W10W14
G22
W17
G25
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3N3N4CalmCalmW4CalmCalmE6E7SE5SE4SE4E4NE3E4E5E6E4

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (3,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.