Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
South Haven, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:38AMSunset 5:20PM Saturday November 17, 2018 6:05 AM EST (11:05 UTC) Moonrise 2:55PMMoonset 1:25AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ844 St Joseph To South Haven Mi- 320 Am Est Sat Nov 17 2018
Today..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers until midday, then a chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots veering east 5 to 10 knots toward daybreak. Cloudy. A slight chance of rain and snow showers in the evening, then a slight chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain and snow showers until midday, then mostly Sunny in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Sunday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ844 Expires:201811171615;;429902 FZUS53 KGRR 170820 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 320 AM EST Sat Nov 17 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ844-171615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Haven city, MI
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location: 42.4, -86.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 170813
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
313 am est Sat nov 17 2018
latest update...

synopsis discussion marine

Synopsis
Issued at 313 am est Sat nov 17 2018
an area of light snow will affect the area through today, bringing
light accumulations to especially western and southern areas. The
snow should move out this evening. Dry weather will be likely then
until later on Monday when the next front will bring chances for
snow showers back in. Another chance of snow showers will come to
northern areas on Wednesday.

Mainly dry weather is then expected for the thanksgiving day holiday
and for Friday as high pressure moves through the area. Warmer
temperatures will move in for the end of the week, with temperatures
possibly approaching 50.

Discussion (today through next Friday)
issued at 313 am est Sat nov 17 2018
we have our eye on three smaller systems through the forecast
period. None of these look to bring any significant impacts to the
area, just a few rounds of some light accumulations of snow showers.

The first of these systems is the one that is poised to move through
today. The latest trend is for the light snow to be a little further
south, with some lake contribution to the lakeshore. The light snow
is being driven by a 135 knot upper jet streak to our ne, with our
area under the influence of the rrq of the jet. This snow does not
have a lot going for it, other than the jet dynamics. The short wave
coming in is shearing out, and there is not much of a moisture surge
with it. One thing going for it, is that 850 mb temps are cold
enough for some lake effect. The upper jet core to our north will
limit the strength of the lake effect.

Some of the NRN periphery of the light snow shield could linger
along and south of i-94 tonight, before it entirely moves out by
Sunday. We should be just cool and dry for Sunday with high pressure
overhead.

Our next system of interest will be dropping in late Monday and
Monday night. This will come via the next short wave diving in over
the area on the NW flow aloft. Again, this system should not bring
much more than an inch of snow to any area as it will be rather
moisture starved. Lake michigan may help with that a little, but the
air over the lake ahead of the system is not all that cold, or
sufficient for impactful lake effect. Behind the system, winds look
to shift to become from the ne, pushing any possible lake effect
offshore.

What should be the final system in the series will graze by the
northern portion of the area late Tue night and Wed morning. The
short wave mostly misses southern lower, except for the very srn
tail of it. It will have cold air with it, but again we do not
expect much pcpn with it, with the best support missing the area.

Once the wave move by to our north on wed, we will gradually trend
toward warmer temperatures through Friday. The models differ a
little bit on the moderation of temps. The GFS is a day earlier with
the warmer temps, compared to the euro. This is because it keeps the
sfc high to our north and east, while the euro sits the high over us
through thanksgiving. Either way, we will end up dry. The question
of the forecast is when we warm up. It looks like it may take until
Friday next week for the warmer air to return as return flow from
the S SW brings the warmer air in.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Saturday night)
issued at 137 am est Sat nov 17 2018
MVFR conditions dominate the area this morning at the beginning of
the fcst period. We will see light snow spread into the area by
mid-morning. The worst conditions will be across the west and
south where ifr and lower conditions will be most likely. The time
frame of the worst conditions will be from around 14z to around
20-22z when it moves out. After the snow moves out mid-late
afternoon, conditions will gradually improve to MVFR andVFR.

Marine
Issued at 313 am est Sat nov 17 2018
we will be able to let the small craft advisory go on time this
morning. Winds will continue to come down for a little while. Winds
will increase a little over the open waters which will bring waves a
bit. We should see waves stay just under 4 feet in the nearshore
waters. We should then see winds and waves stay below advisory
criteria for a few days.

Hydrology
Issued at 1243 pm est Fri nov 16 2018
there are no hydrologic concerns over the next week. Expected
amounts of rain and snow look light. Liquid equivalent of the
current snowpack is under one-half inch, and even when it all melts,
will not cause any notable rises on the rivers.

The threat for ice jams remains near zero through the next week as
daily average temperatures remain above 20 degrees. Warmer weather
is expected towards the end of next week.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Njj
discussion... Njj
aviation... Njj
hydrology... Hlo
marine... Njj


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 1 mi36 min NW 8.9 G 9.9 37°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 24 mi66 min NNW 6 G 8 38°F 1022.7 hPa (+0.7)
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 26 mi36 min WNW 11 G 13 37°F 1021.5 hPa28°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 44 mi76 min NW 5.8 G 7.8 35°F 44°F3 ft1023 hPa (+1.0)31°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 57 mi26 min NE 5.1 G 7 33°F 1023.9 hPa30°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI3 mi69 minN 010.00 miOvercast37°F29°F73%1022 hPa
Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI20 mi73 minN 010.00 miOvercast38°F30°F73%1022.5 hPa

Wind History from BEH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8SW8
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W11W11W11W9W11W7W10W8W7NW5NW3CalmCalm
1 day agoNE5E5E5E6E7E5SE8SE6SE4S4S4S4S5S6S9S8S8SW14
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2 days ago3CalmCalm3N5NE4NW4CalmSW3W5CalmCalmNE4NE4E4SE4E4E4E6SE8E10E6E8E8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.