Saturday, January19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
South Haven, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:08AMSunset 5:41PM Saturday January 19, 2019 9:57 PM EST (02:57 UTC) Moonrise 4:12PMMoonset 6:34AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ844 St Joseph To South Haven Mi- 919 Pm Est Sat Jan 19 2019
.heavy freezing spray warning in effect until 4 am est Sunday...
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 am est Sunday...
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds to 30 knots. Partly cloudy. Heavy freezing spray. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Sunday..North winds 10 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers until midday, then snow showers likely in the afternoon. Freezing spray through the day. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Sunday night..East winds 10 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. A slight chance of snow showers in the evening. Freezing spray through the night. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Martin luther king jr day..Southeast winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Freezing spray. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LMZ844 Expires:201901201015;;624604 FZUS53 KGRR 200219 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 919 PM EST Sat Jan 19 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ844-201015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Haven city, MI
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location: 42.4, -86.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 200218
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
918 pm est Sat jan 19 2019
latest update...

update

Synopsis
Issued at 325 pm est Sat jan 19 2019
- low wind chills tonight
- lake effect snow western mason and oceana counties
- very cold into Monday
- snow mix Tuesday into Wednesday

Update
Issued at 918 pm est Sat jan 19 2019
overall the on-going forecast is working nicely. The deep layered
northeast winds were bringing in snow showers as far west as grand
rapids late this afternoon but winds are turning more to the north
so those clouds and snow showers will exit to the east of our cwa
by midnight. Only trace amounts of snow are expected from those
snow showers.

The snow band that is expected to move into mason county after
midnight is well supported by satellite loops and on-going hi-res
model date the hrrr, rap and latest nam. So I did not change our
winter weather advisory except that I added details to the wording
so it would be clear this is not for all of mason county, mostly
areas west of us-31.

Another through is that this snow band will impact extreme western
allegan and van buren counties Sunday afternoon but amounts of
snow will be light as the main band GOES into berrien county. This
may have to be watched through.

The wind chill advisory looks good, winds should stay gusty into
the overnight and temperatures should fall to between zero and 5
above on most locations, areas north and east of grand rapids may
get below zero.

Discussion (this evening through next Saturday)
issued at 325 pm est Sat jan 19 2019
winter is here, and seems bent on making up for lost time through
the end of the month. For tonight... Strong signal in the hrrr and
arw for a dominant lake effect snow band to form this evening
then move onto shore at the sable points after midnight.

We have issued an advisory for mason and oceana counties for
heavy snow and blowing snow, along with sub zero wind chills
affecting the coastal areas. As the winds come down a bit towards
12z and radiational cooling intensifies, the land breeze could
push the snow back offshore.

Calm but very cold weather is expected for Sunday and Monday. With
surface ridge overhead on Sunday night... Temperatures should
plunge well below zero everywhere. We have lowered mins by
several degrees from guidance given favorable synoptic set up for
radiational cooling.

Model consensus for the storm on Tuesday has trended a little
colder and further south with the track, so it looks more
favorable for snow versus rain for the i-96 corridor where 3 to 5
inches of snow is possible. We will continue to watch this.

We will also be watching model trends with a potential clipper on
Thursday or Friday followed by extreme cold for next weekend. The
ecmwf has been going ballistic the past couple days in painting
historical (hysterical?) outbreaks of arctic air across the great
lakes and surrounding areas. That signal is also in other models
but not as strong. Even so, highs around 10 above and lows 10
below are well within the realm of possibilities by the end of
the week.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 640 pm est Sat jan 19 2019
this is a rather complex weather pattern for our TAF sites. We
currently have deep northeast winds bringing snow showers off lake
huron (see composite radar loops). Over time the winds become more
northerly so while grr was getting 3sm -shsn recently, that area
of snow showers will rotate counter-clockwise over the next few
hours so that azo... Btl... Lan and finally jxn will see those snow
showers. So expect MVFR conditions at those TAF sites between now
and say 06z or so.

Meanwhile as those winds turn more northerly mkg has already
become mostly clear and grr will do so by 02-04z. The other taf
sites will follow after 06z. So between 10z and 15z all TAF sites
should be clear. The gusty winds will subside by then too.

During the day time Sunday the winds turn slightly west of due
north and that brings the snow band over lake michigan into our
western counties. I do believe all areas will haveVFR CIGS in the
afternoon but mkg will likely see a period of MVFR ifr snow
showers in the 14z to 20z time frame. By late in the day all areas
will become mostly clear again as winds become more northeast.

Marine
Issued at 737 pm est Sat jan 19 2019
i have added a freezing spray warning to all of our near shore
zones since we have winds forecast to 25 knots and temperatures in
the 10 to 19 degree range, which typically means freezing spray.

Also it was in our weather grids. Otherwise the on-going small
craft advisory looks good.

Hydrology
Issued at 325 pm est Sat jan 19 2019
very cold temperatures tonight through Tuesday morning will cause
significant ice growth in rivers. This may cause ice jams to form,
and could lead to rapid changes in water levels and localized
flooding in prone areas.

The next widespread precipitation event is expected Tuesday night
through Wednesday morning, and will be a combination of snow and
rain (all snow along and north of m-10). Rain and water equivalent
from snow may reach near one-quarter of an inch.

Precipitation for the remainder of the week will occur as several
light snow events. Temperatures will briefly warm into the 20s and
30s for highs midweek, before we return into a very cold pattern
that will favor ice growth regrowth for the end of the week.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... Wind chill advisory until 10 am est Sunday for miz038>040-
044>046-051-052-056>059-064>067-072>074.

Winter weather advisory from 1 am to 7 pm est Sunday for miz037.

Lm... Heavy freezing spray warning until 4 am est Sunday for
lmz844>849.

Small craft advisory until 11 pm est Sunday for lmz848-849.

Small craft advisory until 7 am est Sunday for lmz844.

Update... Wdm
synopsis... Ostuno
discussion... Ostuno
aviation... Wdm
hydrology... Ostuno
marine... Wdm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 24 mi57 min NE 8 G 18 18°F 1017.3 hPa (+1.0)
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 26 mi45 min NNE 8 G 12 14°F 32°F1017.3 hPa4°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI3 mi62 minNNE 11 G 1810.00 miFair17°F8°F70%1016.9 hPa
Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI20 mi64 minVar 610.00 miMostly Cloudy18°F8°F65%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from BEH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7NE4NE5NE10
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1 day agoCalmW7NW8NW10NW9NW74NW9
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NW5NW5NW44--35NW5NE554NE5NE4NE8NE6NE7
2 days agoNE3NE3E6E4E5E8E7E6E7E8E8E8E8E6E7SE5SE5SE4SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.