Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
South Haven, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 8:09PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 7:01 PM EDT (23:01 UTC) Moonrise 7:43AMMoonset 9:10PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ844 St Joseph To South Haven Mi- 426 Pm Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 am edt Thursday through Thursday afternoon...
Through early evening..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight..East winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of light showers in the evening, then light showers likely overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..East winds to 30 knots. Showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late in the day.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Light showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then light showers likely overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..North winds 10 to 20 knots. Cloudy with a chance of light showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
LMZ844 Expires:201703300815;;277527 FZUS53 KGRR 292026 NSHGRR NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 426 PM EDT WED MAR 29 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ844-300815-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Haven city, MI
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location: 42.4, -86.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 292035
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
435 pm edt Wed mar 29 2017
latest update...

marine

Synopsis
Issued at 328 pm edt Wed mar 29 2017
the active pattern will continue in the foreseeable future. A
mixture of wintry precipitation is possible over central lower
michigan both Thursday morning and again for a brief period
Thursday night. Heavy rainfall is possible through much of the
area through the day Thursday. A couple of thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out Thursday afternoon and evening. A mainly dry weekend is
expected after the system move east, but another round of wet
weather is possible going into next week. Temperatures are
expected to be near normal.

Short term (this evening through Friday night)
issued at 328 pm edt Wed mar 29 2017
the upcoming system continues to introduce various challenges to the
forecast in the next 24-36 hours. This includes chances for wintry
precipitation over interior sections of central lower michigan, in
addition to heavy rainfall through much of the forecast area and
thunder potential over southern locations.

Despite the system of concern being well to our southwest, over the
central plains, its affects are far reaching. Ample moisture is
streaming northward from the gulf, resulting in cloud cover and
rainfall across a broad portion of the central u.S. Meanwhile,
surface high pressure over the great lakes will break down, slowly
giving way to increasing clouds from the west this afternoon.

Mid-level forcing and increasing moisture is expected to result in a
band of developing precipitation through central lower michigan late
tonight into early Thursday. Much of this looks to be situated from
i-96 north near/after midnight. The wrench in the forecast is
thanks in part to the dry, low level flow out of the east, which
continues to raise questions with precipitation type.

The northeastern corner of the forecast area will likely be cold
enough to start as all snow, primarily east of baldwin, northeast of
big rapids and near/north of mt. Pleasant. Just south/west of these
locations, a mix of rain/snow/sleet could fall. The dry layer should
allow wet bulbing to occur with a brief bout of snow, gradually
changing to a mix to rain through the morning. A brief period of
moderate snow cannot be ruled out in the onset. However, the high
liquid content should keep totals in the one to two inch range where
mostly snow does fall.

It is important to note that while temperature profiles warm through
the day Thursday , surface temperatures are ever-so-slightly above
freezing in places like reed city and harrison. Freezing rain could
be argued, but the warm nose coming in from the south is impressive
and seems to do enough to keep it all rain until tomorrow night.

Freezing rain may mix back in, but for any decent ice accumulation,
temperatures around 31/32 do not usually lead to high impact icing.

In addition, recent temperatures have consistently been in the 40s
and 50s keeping the ground fairly mild. Slick conditions are
possible, but not all that likely to last. After coordinating with
gaylord, we leaned away from issuing headlines at this time.

For those along i-96, little or no winter weather is expected with
all rain even further south. Rain could be heavy at times Thursday.

The main surface low finally approaches the mi/in border late
Thursday into Friday. A surface warm front, marked by a dramatic
spread in surface temperatures from north to south, will extend east
of the low through Thursday afternoon. Elevated instability may give
rise to thunder potential Thursday afternoon and evening, especially
for those near and south of i-94. Rainfall totals could push one
inch for many locations, leading to rising rivers (see hydro).

The upper wave begins to push east of the area Friday afternoon.

Scattered showers will continue, but widespread heavier rainfall is
expected to move east, as well. The silver lining in the clouds is
that all rain should move east by late Friday into Saturday.

Long term (Saturday through Wednesday)
issued at 328 pm edt Wed mar 29 2017
the overall weather pattern shows little sign of significant change
for a long time to come (more than two weeks). Expect to get a
significant rain event about every 3 to 4 days. This pattern will
continue through next week and for that matter much longer than
that.

The next major system will be in the Monday time frame. Then
after that in the Thursday time frame. The only real question with
these storms is just how far north they track. The latest runs of
most of the models (ecmfw, gfs, canadian and the ensemble mean of
the GFS and ecmwf) for the most part agree with each other.

Agreement is such that the Monday system's surface low will track
south of here. Even so, there will be enough moisture brought
north so as to bring at least some light rain to the area. The gfs
is significantly wetter with that system than the ECMWF though
with over a half inch of rain. The Thursday system seems to track
farther north so the entire area would get significantly more
rain. There could be a thunderstorm threat with the Thursday
system, too.

Our extended east asian jet feature is forecast by all of the models
to continue for at least another two weeks. That would keep the
split flow and also continue the progressive upper wave pattern. So
once again expect temperatures (over all) to average close to normal
and precipitation to be above normal for the next week plus.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 135 pm edt Wed mar 29 2017
little question it will be solidVFR at all TAF sites through
around 06z. Also there is little question of solid ifr in rain
Thursday after about 15z or so. Between 06z and 12z is when there
are some forecast issues.

The precipitation shield around the storm, currently centered in
southern kansas, will begin to move into our TAF sites in the 06z
time frames. It is possible that mkg and grr could start with a
mix of rain and snow as there is enough dry air to allow wet bulb
cooling at the leading edge for those locations. I put mixed rain
and snow at mkg but not grr through since the risk seemed higher
at mkg than grr. All TAF sites will we solid ifr in rain with a
gusty east wind (15-25 knots). The rain will be moderate to heavy
at times after about 16z tomorrow so there more than likely will
be visibilities under 2 miles Thursday afternoon at all TAF sites.

Marine
Issued at 435 pm edt Wed mar 29 2017
easterly flow will keep higher waves offshore through Thursday.

However, winds will gust to around 30 knots, which has warranted a
small craft advisory through Thursday. Winds will back out of the
north Friday and could result in additional hazardous winds and
waves through Friday afternoon, especially in northern zones.

Hydrology
Issued at 1158 am edt Wed mar 29 2017
widespread precipitation is expected across west michigan from
late tonight through Friday. Basin average amounts of three
quarters of an inch to an inch can be expected. Area rivers levels
are currently elevated from the previous rainfall event... With
advisories in place for ionia, hastings, and holt. While most local
rivers should experience falling stages through tonight... The
precipitation over the next 36 hours will create a new round of
rises to develop. Current advisory products attempt to illustrate
this scenario.

Some of the 12z model output suggests heavier precipitation than
currently included as input to the river models. These higher
amounts... If they materialize... Could produce above bankfull
rises on many more rivers and streams across west michigan. Those
with interests on area rivers should closely monitor the
situation.

Grr watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Jam
short term... Jam
long term... Wdm
aviation... Wdm
hydrology... Mws
marine... Jam


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 1 mi42 min NE 9.9 G 12 53°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 26 mi44 min E 12 G 17
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 57 mi32 min E 5.1 G 6 43°F 1022.9 hPa39°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI3 mi65 minE 710.00 miOvercast53°F31°F44%1022.3 hPa
Benton Harbor, Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI20 mi69 minE 710.00 miOvercast54°F32°F43%1022.5 hPa

Wind History from BEH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr53333CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E6E10E7E11E13E10E8E12
G17
E10E7
1 day ago33N63N4CalmNW3CalmN4N5464N73N5N665N5463N7
2 days agoCalmSW3SW4SW9W11SW13SW9SW8W10W9W7SW5N3W4CalmNW3Calm3NW3SW5N53N4N6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.