Monday, December18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pinckney, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:57AMSunset 5:06PM Monday December 18, 2017 4:05 AM EST (09:05 UTC) Moonrise 8:03AMMoonset 5:46PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0053.000000t0000z-171008t0415z/ 1125 Pm Edt Sat Oct 7 2017
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie from detroit river to north cape mi... The Thunderstorms have moved out and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4185 8345 4235 8304 4237 8299 4236 8293 4231 8307 4224 8313 4216 8313 4203 8315 4196 8311 4177 8336 time...mot...loc 0324z 222deg 57kt 4256 8295 4227 8289 4208 8292
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 Expires:201710080334;;532427 FZUS73 KDTX 080325 MWSDTX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1125 PM EDT SAT OCT 7 2017 LCZ423-LEZ444-080334-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pinckney, MI
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location: 42.42, -83.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 180849
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
349 am est Mon dec 18 2017

Discussion
Starting off with a little weather across lower mi as a warm front
lifts north through the area toward a stall front laid out across
mid mi. A shortwave ejecting out of the mid level trough over the
southwest CONUS will track along the front through southern lower mi
this morning and into the afternoon hours while a PV filament along
the longwave trough axis drops into the state. There has been decent
low level moisture present across the area for a couple days and
appears there will be a weak thermal ridge ahead of the shortwave
with enhanced 850mb moisture transport with it. Add in a brief
window with right entrance jet dynamics aloft skirting across
mid northern mi and looks like chances are increasing for a period
of precipitation this morning. Main question for the forecast
through this afternoon will be ptype. Thermal profile north of i69
is cold enough for frozen precip, with soundings showing some ice
crystals at onset this morning. Mid level moisture gets stripped
away fairly quickly leading to more of a drizzle or freezing drizzle
setup. This leads to the second question, will the precip arrive
before the mid level moisture vacates or before the warm air pushing
north makes it too warm at the surface to allow freezing drizzle.

All in all with a low QPF scenario as advertised by most of the
hires suite, think any freezing drizzle that occurs should have
minimal impact. Areas of drizzle or light rain showers should linger
into the afternoon across eastern portions of the CWA as broader
area of lift with the height fall center passes.

Weather quiets down during the mid week period as longwave pattern
flattens out with the jet focused over the us canadian border. This
keeps the bulk of energy over southern canada with only a short wave
clipping the northern great lakes Tuesday. We will stay on the warm
side of the jet allowing highs once again into the low to mid 40s. A
cold front will dig down through the northern eastern great lakes
Tuesday night on the nose of a flaring up 150+ knot jet. Not much
moisture to support any precip, but temps will drop for Wednesday
back just below mid december average into the low mid 30s.

Slight warming trend for Thursday as the main thermal gradient
meanders slowly back north again as shortwave ridge slides over the
region. This is in response to a developing system over the plains
that will lift through the ohio valley and great lakes Friday and
Saturday. This is a larger more developed system that will carry
much more moisture with it (gfs advertising near 1" pwat) as it is
able to tap into gulf moisture. Both the GFS and ECMWF have been
showing this system for a couple days now but continue to bounce
around with track of the low and thus strength orientation of
frontal boundaries. Ptypes may be a concern early and late in the
event depending where the low and lead warm advective flank sets up,
but bulk of precip on Friday night looks to be liquid as the warm
sector reaches north into ontario.

In the wake of this system, cold air will return for the foreseeable
future. Models have been quite persistent in deepening the longwave
trough over the west central CONUS with a surge of cold air from
northern canada. 850mb temps dropping into the midwest have been
colder than -30c for a few models runs now.

Marine
Light wind and low waves will continue over all marine areas today
as a weak low and warm front move through the central great lakes.

This low will bring some areas of light rain and fog during the
daylight period. A strong low pressure system organizing over
central canada today will track into the hudson bay region tonight.

Winds will respond to the increasing pressure gradient downstream,
leading to strengthening southwest flow overnight. The potential for
a period of gusts to gales will exist over the open waters, despite
the diminishing overlake stability as warmer air works into the
region. Strong cold front attendant to this low will then sweep
across the region on Tuesday. This will bring a longer window for
potential gales Tuesday and Tuesday night, as instability deepens
again under colder post-frontal westerly winds. Winds ease into
Wednesday as high pressure settles over the marine areas.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1222 am est Mon dec 18 2017
aviation...

difficult forecast continues as low level moisture advection begins
to increase as surface wave lifts toward lower michigan. Main trend
this evening is to be much more bullish with light precipitation in
the 09-13z timeframe on northern periphery of cyclonic circulation. A
fairly consistent consensus has developed with more coverage of
light QPF at less than 0.05inch. Taking the model soundings at face
value for depth of saturation. As a result, carrying a prevailing
group for light snow at mbs while including -fzrasn at fnt. With
surface temperature lifting above the freezing mark, and outside of
better deformation forcing will only be carrying a dz mention for
the southern TAF sites. Unidirectional southwest flow with little
advections will keep low cloud over the area.

For dtw... Given observation trends, rolled back on the lifr ifr
vsby cig forecast. Did include prevailing drizzle with surface
temperatures above zero.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less tonight.

* moderate for rain precip type tonight.

* low for 200 ft ceiling and or 1 2 sm visibility tonight and Monday
morning.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Gale warning from midnight tonight to 4 am est Wednesday for lhz362-
363-462.

Gale warning from midnight tonight to 4 pm est Tuesday for lhz421-
441.

Gale warning from 4 am Tuesday to 4 am est Wednesday for lhz361.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Drk
marine... ... .Mr
aviation... ..Mr
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 54 mi65 min SW 7 G 8.9 35°F 1015.6 hPa
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 55 mi47 min SW 5.1 G 8.9 38°F 1015.9 hPa33°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Last
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NE4
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SW7
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G13

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI15 mi70 minSSW 45.00 miFog/Mist35°F34°F97%1014.2 hPa
Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Municipal Airport, MI16 mi72 minSSW 85.00 miFog/Mist36°F35°F97%1016 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI23 mi72 minSW 106.00 miFog/Mist38°F35°F89%1015.7 hPa

Wind History from OZW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE3E6E7E6E7E6E7E7SE8SE7E5SE6SE7SE9SE7SE6SE3S4S3S4S5SW5S4
1 day agoSW5SW5W4N4NE3NE4NE6NE6NE6E5NE5NE6NE7NE6E6E6E6E4E3NE3E3NE3NE4NE4
2 days agoS4S4SW6S5SW6S8S8SW10
G14
SW12
G16
W10W7
G14
W7W13
G18
W9W7W6SW4SW5SW3SW3CalmCalmSW4SW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.