Friday, May25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pinckney, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 9:01PM Friday May 25, 2018 2:57 PM EDT (18:57 UTC) Moonrise 4:01PMMoonset 3:18AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 548 Pm Edt Sat May 19 2018
.thunderstorms approaching lake erie shoreline and lower detroit river... The areas affected include... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... At 546 pm edt...doppler radar indicated Thunderstorms located along a line extending from 7 nm northwest of Monroe harbor to 10 nm west of north cape...moving east at 20 knots. The activity will be capable of wind gusts near 30 knots and heavy rainfall. Thunderstorms will be near... North cape, detroit river light and luna pier around 620 pm edt. Gibraltar around 625 pm edt. Bolles harbor of refuge around 630 pm edt. Monroe harbor around 635 pm edt. Other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include gibraltar. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4176 8348 4180 8344 4180 8341 4182 8343 4188 8336 4189 8338 4189 8334 4194 8331 4192 8327 4197 8325 4202 8318 4208 8320 4210 8313 4203 8315 4196 8311 4172 8341 4172 8347
LCZ423 Expires:201805192245;;218441 FZUS73 KDTX 192148 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 548 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2018 LCZ423-LEZ444-192245-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pinckney, MI
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location: 42.42, -83.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 251744
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
144 pm edt Fri may 25 2018

Aviation
Dry southwest winds are well established over southeast michigan
this afternoon as the area remains positioned to the northwest of
strong mid atlantic high pressure. Midlevel anticyclonic flow
trajectories and antecedent dry air to hold through this evening and
into tonight. Weak remnant jet axis aloft will push into the area
allowing moisture return to commence by sunrise Saturday. High cloud
associated with passing indiana midlevel low and diurnal heating
will bring an increase in mixed boundary layer cumulus Saturday
afternoon.

For dtw... Latest indications that wind directions will subtly back
to around 170 degrees at around 00z this evening in response to
a lake erie lake breeze.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* none.

Prev discussion
Issued at 355 am edt Fri may 25 2018
discussion...

a mid summer weather pattern continues taking shape across the great
lakes today and lasts through the upcoming holiday weekend. It will
consist of warm and increasingly humid conditions with a few time
windows of thunderstorm potential. The coverage timing of storms and
associated cloudiness play an important role in daytime high
temperatures that will be increasingly capable of reaching or
exceeding 90 as the weekend progresses, especially as southwest low
level wind is projected to be just strong enough to limit the
inland lake breeze extent.

For today, surface high pressure centered off the mid atlantic coast
holds primary influence over the southern great lakes for one more
day. The main result is maintenance of surface dewpoint in the less
humid range of the 50s. The position of the upper level ridge also
directs most of the high clouds from upstream convection through the
northern great lakes. Mostly sunny sky will then help lift high
temperatures into the mid and upper 80s as model soundings indicate
the boundary layer mixing well into 850 mb temps around 15c.

Initiation of afternoon thunderstorms is a little closer to our west
during peak heating today which slightly increases the chance of
some activity surviving through lower michigan tonight. Model
indications suggest intensity will be strongly dependent on diurnal
surface based instability while coverage may linger due to the
central plains upper midwest short wave moving over the great lakes.

The primary negative factor for maintenance is the lack of nocturnal
surface based or elevated instability downstream of initiation,
including over SE michigan. However, the moisture profile remains
deep judging by pw around 1.2 inches from model soundings by 12z
Saturday. This, along with the weakly forced larger scale pattern
suggests a few stray showers will be possible late tonight through
Saturday morning based on timing of the weak upper wave.

The potential for surface based convection developing over se
michigan is much improved by Saturday afternoon mainly due to
surface dewpoint rising into the lower to mid 60s. This leads to
model projections of MLCAPE around 1500 j kg and MUCAPE near 2000
j kg during peak heating subject to lower adjustments due to cloud
cover. There is also reasonable model agreement on timing of the
upper wave that is slow enough to still provide some weak support
both surface and aloft. Trends for severe storm potential from the
last few forecast cycles still hold with the primary limiting factor
being a wind profile with speed less than 30 knots below 500 mb and
more like around 15 knots below 700 mb. Chance pops are maintained
again due to the presence of the upper wave and weak surface
reflection during peak heating.

Model consensus for Sunday offers a short wave farther north over
ontario and a weaker or nonexistent frontal passage Sunday night.

The exception is the NAM solution which is stronger with the wave
and surface front and thus more active with another potential round
of thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. This part of the forecast has
below average predictability due to the small scale of the wave at a
longer time range. The subject circulation is shown over the
canadian rockies today and is initialized better with closed 500 mb
contours by the gfs, ecmwf, and canadian which all still keep the
wave mainly to our north during Sunday and warm air in place through
memorial day. Thunderstorm potential then remains tied to daytime
heating near the lake breeze convergence zone in an otherwise
uncapped thermal profile. Scattered coverage with afternoon timing
to finish the holiday weekend.

Marine...

high pressure will continue sliding to the east towards the mid-
atlantic region today. Light to moderate southwest return flow will
develop as the day progresses, with winds generally 10-20 knots. A
cold front will slowly drift southward from lake superior this
weekend bring increasing chances for scattered showers and
thunderstorms. The front will wash out over the region Sunday with
high pressure building in its wake for early next week.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Cb
discussion... Bt
marine... ... .Irl
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 54 mi117 min SW 1.9 G 12 82°F 1013.5 hPa (-1.7)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 55 mi87 min SSW 2.9 G 7 84°F 1013.8 hPa50°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI15 mi62 minW 510.00 miFair84°F54°F36%1013.2 hPa
Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Municipal Airport, MI16 mi64 minS 610.00 miFair83°F57°F43%1012.9 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI23 mi64 minWSW 810.00 miFair87°F55°F34%1012.7 hPa

Wind History from OZW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6SW6SW6SW5S4S5S3CalmSW4SW4CalmCalmS4S5CalmS3SW3SW4SW6SW8SW7SW8SW6SW7
1 day agoCalmNW4NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmS4SE3SW7
2 days agoNW5NW7NW9N6NW4NW4CalmNW3SW3CalmW3CalmCalmW4CalmW3CalmCalmCalmNW3N4N6NW3E4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.