Tuesday, October17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pinckney, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:49AMSunset 6:50PM Tuesday October 17, 2017 4:28 PM EDT (20:28 UTC) Moonrise 4:24AMMoonset 5:10PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0053.000000t0000z-171008t0415z/ 1125 Pm Edt Sat Oct 7 2017
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie from detroit river to north cape mi... The Thunderstorms have moved out and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4185 8345 4235 8304 4237 8299 4236 8293 4231 8307 4224 8313 4216 8313 4203 8315 4196 8311 4177 8336 time...mot...loc 0324z 222deg 57kt 4256 8295 4227 8289 4208 8292
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 Expires:201710080334;;532427 FZUS73 KDTX 080325 MWSDTX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1125 PM EDT SAT OCT 7 2017 LCZ423-LEZ444-080334-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pinckney, MI
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location: 42.42, -83.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 171929
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
329 pm edt Tue oct 17 2017

Discussion
Wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph and overachieving temperatures this
afternoon are a nod to uninhibited insolation and efficient boundary
layer growth. Gusts briefly exceeded 35 mph at kmbs courtesy of
modest downsloping within SW flow. Forecast highs for this aftn were
raised to the upper 60s away from the glacial ridge, but have
already reached 70 in many locations by 19z. Grids for the remainder
of the evening have been updated accordingly.

Vigorous wave is noted on IR coming onshore near seattle this
afternoon. In response, lee cyclogenesis is underway in the prairie
of ab sk. This cyclone will track across south-central canada
through Wednesday, lifting toward james bay by Wednesday night and
ensuring a stout southwest gradient through tomorrow. Mixed
conditions will contain lows to the 40s tonight while 850mb temps
rise from 8c readings early today to 11c on wed. Conditions
otherwise unchanged, so the forecast is modified persistence - went
warmer than all available guidance for highs - about 2 degrees
warmer than today, or low 70s.

Orphaned cold front attendant to the james bay low will ease through
the area Wed night into early thurs. Continued tranquil weather
through this time as paltry moisture along the front leads to
nothing more than a low coverage of aftn CU on thurs. Highs once
again mid to upper 60s.

Surface and upper level ridging will be in place over the great
lakes Friday and Saturday, thanks to pacific energy digging an
amplified trough over the western conus. This will lead to continued
mostly sunny skies Friday and temperatures warming well above
average into the lower 70s both days. Clouds will begin to move in
Saturday as a shortwave lifts through.

Long range model guidance diverges on the timing of the upper trough
impacting the great lakes: the GFS brings the next chance of rain on
Sunday afternoon, while the ECMWF brings this moisture to the region
early Monday. Will continue to monitor in the coming days as to
exact timing of this disturbance moving through, but regardless of
timing, a cool and showery start to next week is expected as this
trough is forecast to deepen and linger over the great lakes through
at least mid week.

Marine
A pressure gradient between surface high pressure slowly moving east
through the ohio valley and low pressure in central canada will
maintain gusty southwest winds through the midweek period. Small
craft advisories remain in effect through this evening for saginaw
bay and the nearshore waters of lake huron from port austin to
harbor beach. Southwest winds will then diminish slightly this
evening below 20 knots before increasing to 20-30 knots again on
Wednesday across much of lake huron.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1243 pm edt Tue oct 17 2017
aviation...

surface ridging will remain in control through the TAF period as high
pressure slowly moves east through the ohio valley. A pressure
gradient between high pressure to the south and low pressure well to
the north in central canada will continue southwest flow this
afternoon and again on Wednesday. Confidence is high for southwest
flow operations andVFR conditions through the TAF period.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422-441.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Jvc tf
marine... ... .Jd
aviation... ..Jd
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 54 mi28 min SW 13 G 22 68°F 1020.3 hPa (-2.1)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 55 mi40 min SW 8 G 14 67°F 1022 hPa41°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Last
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E11
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI15 mi33 minWSW 12 G 1910.00 miFair68°F40°F36%1020 hPa
Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Municipal Airport, MI16 mi35 minSSW 16 G 2210.00 miFair68°F42°F39%1020.7 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI23 mi35 minSW 13 G 2210.00 miFair72°F41°F33%1020.5 hPa

Wind History from OZW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6S3CalmS3CalmS4SW3S3S4S4SW4CalmS4SW6SW8SW5SW9SW7
G15
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1 day agoNW13
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NW9NW7NW5NW3W3W4NW3NW3NW5NW4CalmCalmNW3NE3NW3CalmN5W3W4W6
2 days agoSE9SE10SE9SE10SE5SE8SE10SE9CalmS9S5S6S6S6S8SW10
G18
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G25
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G24
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G28
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.