Tuesday, June27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pinckney, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 9:17PM Tuesday June 27, 2017 10:04 PM EDT (02:04 UTC) Moonrise 9:07AMMoonset 11:08PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 /o.con.kdtx.ma.w.0014.000000t0000z-170623t0115z/ 844 Pm Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
.a special marine warning remains in effect until 915 pm edt... For the following areas... Detroit river... Lake st. Clair open lake (u.s. Portion)... At 844 pm edt...a strong Thunderstorm was located near the ambassador bridge...moving northeast at 30 knots. Hazard...wind gusts to 40 knots. Source...radar indicated. Impact...small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and suddenly higher waves. The strong Thunderstorm will be near... Grosse pointe around 855 pm edt. St. Clair shores around 910 pm edt. Metro beach metropark marina...st clair flats old channel light and mt clemens harbor of refuge around 915 pm edt. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Move to safe harbor until hazardous weather passes. && lat...lon 4255 8259 4256 8263 4254 8266 4237 8283 4232 8306 4232 8312 4238 8295 4245 8291 4254 8291 4259 8285 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8263 4261 8254 4262 8260 4261 8258 4260 8255 4261 8253 time...mot...loc 0044z 241deg 29kt 4238 8306 hail...0.00in wind...40kts
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 Expires:201706230115;;663543 FZUS73 KDTX 230044 MWSDTX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 844 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2017 LCZ423-460-230115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pinckney, MI
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location: 42.42, -83.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 272245
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
645 pm edt Tue jun 27 2017

Aviation
The departure of a weak mid level short wave and loss of daytime
heating will bring an end to residual showers and diurnal cloud
cover over the next couple of hours. The loss in daytime mixing will
also allow the westerly winds to weaken and slowly back to the south-
southwest. The south-southwest gradient will increase during the
overnight and through Wed morning as high pressure advances to the
mid atlantic. The deepening of the mixed layer will allow a slight
increase in these winds mid to late Wed morning. Otherwise, the high
pressure system and dry ambient airmass will sustain tranquil
aviation conditions through Wed morning.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

none.

Prev discussion
Issued at 309 pm edt Tue jun 27 2017
discussion...

shortwave dropping through back side of mid level trough is clipping
eastern michigan this afternoon and evening. Very cold airmass
aloft as this mornings sounding indicate freezing level around 6kft
combined with strong diurnal heating is yielding capes upwards to
around 1k joules producing scattered showers mainly from the thumb
and saginaw valley on north. Expect this activity to continue into
the evening before dissipating around sunset. Some light shower
activity could make it down to the detroit area briefly during prime
heating. Some thunder is possible as -20c is just a mere 16kft above
the surface. After... Skies will clear early tonight as surface high
pressure slides by to the south and mid level heights rise. Wednesday
will start off mostly sunny but clouds will begin increasing from
the west during the afternoon as WAA around backside of departing
high begins. Shortwave tracking through the upper midwest will spin
up a weak surface low Wednesday that will track east across the
northern great lakes. Showers and thunderstorms will develop over
wisconsin and spread east-southeast along a strengthening warm front
that will be lifting north through lower michigan tomorrow afternoon.

Expect the best chance for showers and thunderstorms to occur late
afternoon evening across the saginaw valley and thumb. This area will
be sensitive to any heavy rainfall after major flooding over the
weekend. Activity shouldn't last too long and expecting maybe upwards
half an inch. There should be a break in activity after warm front
passage but showers and thunderstorms will return later Wednesday
night as a cold front moves through lower michigan down to along the
southern border Thursday morning where it will stall as main
shortwave lifts northeast into ontario.

Thursday should be rather quiet for most of the forecast area as mid
level ridge slides through but showers and thunderstorms will still
be possible especially across the southern two tiers of counties in
the vicinity of the stationary front. Another stronger shortwave in a
broader deepening trough will advance towards the great lakes
Thursday night. In response the stationary front will lift back north
as a warm front bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms
across the area. Temperatures will be more seasonable the next couple
of days.

Extended forecast Friday june 30th through Wednesday, july 5th:
models showing little change in the forecast from yesterday with wet
weather pattern still expected to resume mid-week and continue into
weekend as several waves of low pressure move through SE mi. Chances
of showers thunderstorms still look to increase by Friday afternoon
and evening with a few showers lingering about for Saturday. Surface
high pressure is delayed until Sunday on new run, along with the
upper level trough. Upper level troughs could still be a bit of a
fly in the ointment triggering scattered showers Sunday through
Tuesday. At present, the vort maxes disappear for Wednesday as high
pressure gets a slightly better footing over the area; translation,
drier conditions and less clouds Wednesday. Temperatures continue to
hold near the seasonal norm through the period with highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s and overnight lows in the 60s.

Marine...

moderate westerly winds will hold throughout the afternoon as
diurnal heating over land brings the slight chance to see isolated
showers over the saginaw bay, and along the western coasts of the
great lakes. Overnight, winds will shift from westerly to more
southwesterly as nocturnal stability acts to keep winds light. High
pressure moving east across the ohio valley will act to keep
conditions dry throughout Wednesday and will usher in warmer air
into the region, bringing more stable conditions over the lakes as
gusts remain sub-15 knots. Thunderstorm chances then move in
Wednesday night into Friday as a series of low pressure systems help
to advect warm, moist air into the region.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Sc
discussion... Drc de
marine... ... .Am
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 54 mi65 min WNW 2.9 G 8.9 70°F 1016.9 hPa (+0.3)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 55 mi65 min W 4.1 G 5.1 70°F 1017.1 hPa (-0.0)43°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI15 mi71 minW 710.00 miFair66°F41°F41%1016.9 hPa
Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Municipal Airport, MI16 mi72 minWSW 610.00 miFair65°F46°F51%1016.7 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI23 mi72 minWNW 810.00 miFair69°F46°F45%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from OZW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5W4W8W7W6W6NW5W6W6W9NW9W9W10NW9
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1 day agoW4SW3SW3SW3SW3SW4SW5W7W8W6W11
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2 days agoW4SW4SW4SW4CalmSW3SW3SW3W5SW6W8W11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.