Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fredonia, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:40AMSunset 5:13PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 11:49 PM EST (04:49 UTC) Moonrise 7:17AMMoonset 5:02PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ040 Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 951 Pm Est Tue Jan 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday evening...
Overnight..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Snow likely. Waves in ice free areas 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds to 30 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds to 30 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots. A chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers Saturday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LEZ040 Expires:201801171015;;562762 FZUS51 KBUF 170251 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 951 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ040-041-171015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fredonia, NY
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location: 42.43, -79.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 170333
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1033 pm est Tue jan 16 2018

Synopsis
Light snow will fall across portions of western and north central
new york through Wednesday as a weak storm system passes through.

Colder air behind this system will generate light lake effect snow
east of the lakes Wednesday night through Friday before a pronounced
day to day warming trend commences for the start of the weekend and
into early next week.

Near term through Wednesday
Light snow found across the bulk of the region at 10 pm will taper
off to flurries during the course of the night. The forcing
responsible for the snowfall... Namely low level convergence supplied
by an inverted surface trough... And upper level lift from a passing
140kt h25 jet... Will both push to the east overnight. A plume of
deeper moisture to the east of the genesee valley will also push
east... So the removal of the deeper moisture and bulk of lift will
allow the light snow to taper off from west to east.

Later tonight... Our attention will then turn towards insignificant
lake snows. Cold advection will send h85 temps into the minus teens
c... And this will awaken the mesoscale processes over lakes erie and
especially ontario through most of Wednesday. Expect little
accumulation off a mostly frozen lake erie, but southeast of lake
ontario, where lake induced equilibrium levels rise to 6-7k feet,
several additional inches of snow will be possible within the lake
effect snow.

Outside of the lake effect areas on Wednesday... Low level ridging
will encourage fair weather including some breaks of sun.

Temperatures will average 5-10 degrees below normal, with lows
tonight in the single digits to mid teens and highs tomorrow in the
upper teens to lower 20s.

Short term Wednesday night through Saturday
Wednesday night a weak shortwave will move east across quebec, too
far north to have any direct influence on our region. The main
concern Wednesday night through Thursday will be some ongoing
limited lake effect snow, mainly off lake ontario. Lake induced
equilibrium heights will be very low, around 5k feet through the
period. Even so, ample low level moisture beneath the inversion and
a shallow layer of dendritic crystal growth should still be able to
support some limited lake snows. Outside of lake effect areas it
will be mainly dry, with variable amounts of clouds Wednesday night
and Thursday.

Off lake ontario...

weak lake effect snow showers over central jefferson county
Wednesday evening will drift south into the tug hill region
overnight, and may see a minor uptick in intensity overnight. Expect
additional accumulations of 2-3 inches across the higher terrain of
the tug hill, and 1-2 inches across lower elevations surrounding the
tug hill. On Thursday the lake effect snow will remain centered on
the tug hill, and should slowly weaken and possibly end through the
day as inversion heights lower even further.

Off lake erie...

a few flurries or light snow showers may linger Wednesday night
northeast of the lake in the buffalo metro area. The combination of
low inversion height and small amount of open water should keep this
very light, with just a spotty dusting of accumulation possible.

This should end by Thursday morning as the inversion lowers further.

Thursday night and early Friday a pair of sharp mid level shortwaves
will cross the region. These features will be continental and
moisture starved with only weak surface reflections. Given the lack
of moisture, expect just a few scattered snow showers across
portions of the region. They will produce a little better
environment for lake effect again east of lake ontario, with deeper
moisture and a little higher inversion height. This may produce a
few more inches of accumulation across the tug hill region later
Thursday night and Friday morning. All of this will slowly taper off
and end later Friday with warm advection bringing lowering inversion
heights.

A warming trend will then begin by Saturday as the flow becomes
zonal across the united states, with warm advection spreading east
across the ohio valley and great lakes. High temperatures will reach
the mid 30s by Friday afternoon, and then the low to mid 40s by
Saturday afternoon. Friday night and Saturday should be mainly dry
for the bulk of the region, with a weak stalled frontal boundary
just north of lake ontario.

Long term Saturday night through Tuesday
January thaw, round 2, continues for the start of next week,
followed by cooler, but seasonable, temperatures returning for mid
to late week.

Fairly zonal, pacific influenced flow will be in place across the
conus on Sunday, as a trough exits from the four corners region. The
increasing southwesterly flow and rising heights aloft across the
forecast area ahead of the approaching trough will usher in warmer
temperatures from Sunday into Monday. High temperatures will run in
the 40s, both days, with perhaps a few locations near the 50 degree
mark by Monday. Expect to see showers develop in the vicinity of the
warm front across the region on Sunday along with ample cloud cover,
although it will not likely be a washout with plenty of dry time.

South of lake ontario, this would mainly be rain, with a mix of
either rain, freezing rain or snow for eastern lake ontario. An
approaching cold front Monday, tied to the ejecting trough moving
from the central plains to the eastern great lakes, will usher in
widespread, soaking rain showers. There will be ample moisture to
work with as the trough taps into a rich subtropical moisture source
from the gulf of mexico. Cooler air will rush back into the region
with blustery southwest to west winds behind the cold front passage,
bringing a return to more seasonable temperatures for mid-week.

Aviation 04z Wednesday through Sunday
MVFR conditions in light snow will generally remain in place for the
overnight. The highest chance for any ifr conditions will be found
over the finger lakes region... Where snow could reduce vsbys to
under 2 miles at times.

On Wednesday... MVFR conditions will gradually give way toVFR
weather. This will mainly be the case outside of the lake effect
snows which will be found east of both lakes.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Friday... Localized MVFR to ifr
possible in scattered to occasionally more numerous lake effect snow
showers east of the lakes... With mainlyVFR conditions elsewhere.

Saturday... MainlyVFR.

Sunday... MVFR with a chance of light rain (mixing with snow east of
lake ontario).

Marine
Winds will remain light across the region through tonight as a weak
area of low pressure passes near lake ontario, and eventually a
coastal low advances northward along the eastern coastline. Much
cooler air behind an upper level trough axis will filter across the
eastern great lakes tomorrow afternoon and through much of the
remainder of the week. This will bring an extended period of small
craft conditions that will eventually end Saturday after a
period of strong southerly winds.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 pm est Saturday for lez040-041.

Small craft advisory from 1 pm Wednesday to 4 am est
Sunday for loz042>044.

Synopsis... Rsh thomas
near term... Rsh thomas
short term... Hitchcock
long term... Church
aviation... Rsh
marine... Thomas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 4 mi49 min SSW 6 G 11 15°F 1031.5 hPa (+0.7)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 24 mi49 min 16°F 1029.3 hPa (+0.0)
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 39 mi49 min WSW 14 G 18 17°F 1028.8 hPa (+0.0)11°F
EREP1 44 mi49 min W 15 G 19
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 48 mi49 min 16°F 1029.8 hPa (+0.4)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY6 mi56 minS 87.00 miLight Snow14°F7°F73%1031.5 hPa

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9S9S8S10S9S8SW7SW7SW7S6SW6SW5SW7SW11W9SW8SW7SW8SW7SW8SW8SW9SW11S8
1 day agoE10E8NE7CalmNE5NE8NE6E6NE74N5NW43SE6E6SE9SE7SE5E4E5Calm6S16S9
2 days ago3S5S5S3S4S3S4S5S4S3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmSE3SE3E4E7SE12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.