Wednesday, June20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe Woods, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 9:13PM Wednesday June 20, 2018 3:05 PM EDT (19:05 UTC) Moonrise 12:44PMMoonset 12:49AM Illumination 49% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 347 Am Edt Wed Jun 20 2018
Today..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Light showers likely early in the morning...then a chance of light showers in the late morning and early afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight...then increasing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of light showers...then cloudy with light showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy with showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201806202015;;817537 FZUS63 KDTX 200747 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 347 AM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A ridge of surface high pressure, 30.00 inches, will remain in place over the central Great Lakes today while a frontal boundary remains stationary over the northern Ohio Valley. A secondary area of surface high pressure will build into the northern Great Lakes at the end of the week. LCZ460-202015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe Woods, MI
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location: 42.43, -82.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 201702
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
102 pm edt Wed jun 20 2018

Aviation
WidespreadVFR with pockets of high MVFR as moisture axis remains in
place over most of the area. Diurnal heating is leading to a low
coverage of light drizzle sprinkles. Transient -ra possible in the
detroit area over the next couple of hours, but does not appear to
warrant an explicit mention in the forecast attm. CIGS improve late
this evening as confluent flow forces drier air into lower michigan
from the north. Low cloud has already cleared at mbs with clearing
anticipated in detroit by 00z. Wind will be light to variable out of
the NE quadrant through the period.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* high for cig AOB 5kft.

Prev discussion
Issued at 334 am edt Wed jun 20 2018
discussion...

forecast focus is first on the developing area of showers through
the early morning as a shortwave tracks across the northern ohio
valley and then on the upper low for the weekend.

Currently there is a stationary front laid out across the northern
ohio valley with a shortwave rippling along it extending north into
southern mi. A few features of note include an elevated layer of the
stationary front laid out just north of i69. Some radar returns have
been seen along this 850mb theta E gradient through the overnight
though obs indicate nothing is has been hitting the ground. This
elevated front will sink southward through morning as high pressure
builds into northern mi. The shortwave looks to strengthen slightly
this morning while eventually phasing with the 850mb front. It will
first release a filament of vorticity up along the front which is
touching off showers over SW lower mi as of 06z. Between 09-15z the
elevated front, vorticity, and isentropic ascent will expand
coverage over SE mi mainly south of i69. Coverage upstream and
expected convergence of features will warrant likely pops. Showers
will continue through about 15-18z as the deformation region slides
through. Could see an isolated thunderstorm but instability is very
weak as is lapse rates so looking more for heavy rainfall as pwats
still hovering around 1.75 inches are still present. Northeast flow
as the surface and excessive cloud cover through most of the day
will keep temps down in the mid 70s.

Backdoor cold front will slide through Wednesday night ushering in
area of high pressure and forcing the main baroclinic zone farther
south into ohio. Temps will rebound slightly Thursday with clear
skies and strong insolation, with temps nearing 80 for many
locations. Thursday will be a dry day but could see the northeast
winds gusting to around 20 mph as gradient tightens.

Attention then turns to a cutoff low over the central plains that
will lift through the southern great lakes over the weekend. A jet
streak in the southern stream of the jet will pick up the low and
advect it eastward starting Thursday. The mid level closed low will
open as lifts through southern mi Friday night and Saturday as it
phases with the northern stream of the jet over NE ontario. Extended
period of showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday through
Saturday. Models have been fairly consistent with this scenario
outside of being a bit more progressive with the wave in the latest
run. As precip starts to wane with the low exiting east, a northern
stream mid level trough will then bring a cold front down through
lower mi on Sunday. This will keep some chance pops around as it
runs up against the trailing moisture axis. High pressure will build
in behind the front for the start of the new week. Persistent
northeasterly flow will keep temperatures in the mid to upper 70s
through the bulk of the extended forecast.

Marine...

prevailing onshore easterly flow will remain in place through the
end of the week. Modest wave height increases will occur at times in
the nearshore zones tonight through Friday. Weak thunderstorm
chances will exist on Saturday and wind directions turn southerly
ahead of an approaching low pressure system.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Jvc
discussion... Drk
marine... ... .Cb
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 3 mi65 min NNE 5.1 G 7 65°F 1012.9 hPa (-0.3)
45147 - Lake St Clair 12 mi65 min NNE 5.8 G 7.8 64°F 68°F1011.6 hPa (-0.1)
AGCM4 24 mi47 min 67°F 1012.5 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 45 mi47 min 64°F 1012.5 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 45 mi45 min ENE 11 G 12 66°F
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 47 mi47 min N 6 G 8 59°F 1012.7 hPa56°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI6 mi72 minNE 410.00 miOvercast65°F57°F78%1012.3 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI14 mi69 minVar 510.00 miOvercast68°F57°F67%1012.5 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI17 mi70 minNE 410.00 miOvercast66°F56°F70%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4SE5SE5SE4E3E4E9NE6E7NE8NE8NE5N4NE5N4NE4NE6NE6E4NE5E5NE5NE4E6
1 day agoW14
G21
W14
G19
W16
G25
NW9
G21
N11N7N9N12SE8NE7N5N7N8N7N6N7NE9NE11E10E10E10E6E5Calm
2 days agoSW12SW11
G17
SW10S10SW9SW5SW5SW7SW7W8W9W6SW7SW9SW10SW9W8W10
G19
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W10
G19
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G19
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G25
W14
G22
W15
G26

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.