Sunday, March26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe Woods, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 7:52PM Sunday March 26, 2017 12:58 PM EDT (16:58 UTC) Moonrise 5:45AMMoonset 5:22PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 345 Am Edt Sun Mar 26 2017
Today..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Scattered light showers late in the morning. Periods of showers in the afternoon. Scattered Thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Periods of showers and scattered Thunderstorms until early morning...then a chance of light showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly cloudy. A chance of light showers early in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots early in the evening becoming light and variable...then becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Cloudy with a chance of light rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy with a chance of rain until late afternoon...then partly cloudy in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201703262015;;094075 FZUS63 KDTX 260745 GLFSC LAKE ST CLAIR FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 345 AM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017 WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. .SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE...AVERAGING 29.80 INCHES...WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING BEFORE REACHING LAKE HURON THIS EVENING. A SECOND LOW...AVERAGING 29.70 INCHES...WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. LCZ460-262015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe Woods, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.43, -82.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kdtx 261447
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1047 am edt Sun mar 26 2017

Update
Late morning upper air analysis shows the upper circulation now
centered over west-central il. Prominent warm conveyer belt
anchored along the eastern flank evident on water vapor sustaining
steady 850-925 mb waa/moisture advection across the existing warm
frontal slope. This process driving the initial expansion of
convective showers north of the surface warm front still draped
south of a fort wayne to findley line. Higher coverage through the
early afternoon period likely focused along/west of the i-75
corridor. Even greater eastward expansion expected moving forward
from mid afternoon through the evening, as focused areas of
convergence/cva pivoting through the cyclonic eastern periphery
migrate through. Recent hi-res model output holding with this
expectation, reaffirming high categorical pops remain warranted.

The temperature forecast is a different story, as the muted response
thus far both locally and just upstream casting greater doubt in
attaining greater recovery. With that said, noting virtually all
guidance sans the NAM still support readings lifting into the 50s
late today as the warm frontal boundary arcs into the region. Will
elect to slow the diurnal curve through early-mid afternoon, but
allowing for a late push early this evening to achieve these values
/particularly south of m-59/.

Prev discussion
Issued at 607 am edt Sun mar 26 2017
aviation...

with a front still lingering just south of the michigan border, and
the associated low pressure center forecast to lift northeast
through central lower mi later this evening, tafs will be quite
pessimistic. Increasing moisture field over cool easterly flow will
keep a low stratus deck with possible vsby restrictions most of the
forecast. Add to that a band of showers that will impact the region
generally between 16-22z with some additional showers lingering
after. Question remains as to how much cig/vsby improvement will
occur within the area of showers, but looks like once we come out of
the more widespread showers, conditions will try to drop again
overnight. There is a chance of some isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening but coverage and confidence is too low to include
in the taf.

For dtw... A brief break in the ifr/MVFR conditions with stratus
breaking up near the front. This will be short lived as the low
will continue closer to the terminal through the day with enhanced
moisture plume and showers lifting through which will reduce
cigs/vsbys once again.

//dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for CIGS below 5000 feet much of the forecast.

Prev discussion...

issued at 311 am edt Sun mar 26 2017
discussion...

with the exception of the tri cities region, SE mi has remained
largely dry during the night. This is due to the fact that the mid
level deformation has held north and west of the forecast area,
while mid level ridging has held firm across the eastern great
lakes. An upper low is churning over the mo/ia/il border region
early this morning. The water vapor imagery shows a steady stream of
deep layer moisture into the wrn/cntl ohio valley within the warm
conveyor belt of this system.

The mid level circulation is forecast to elongate as it rotates into
far SRN lake mi this afternoon, with the mid level trough axis
taking on a negative tilt as it lifts into SRN lower mi. This will
result in a fairly good region of mid level height falls
overspreading SE mi this afternoon and evening. An axis mid level
deformation is forecast to pivot from SW to NE across the forecast
area this afternoon within a region of good upper level difluent
flow. These forcing mechanisms combined with the deep moist plume
being driven into the area will support widespread showers today
into this evening. The showers will increase in coverage across the
southern sections of the forecast area late this morning before
lifting northward during the afternoon. The upper low is forecast to
transition to an open wave as it lifts across lower mi this evening.

There will still be decent mid level cooling (especially south of
the i-69 corridor). This will warrant isolated to scattered
thunderstorms during the latter half of the day.

As is often the case this time year, the afternoon temperature
forecast carries a high degree of uncertainty. Temperatures are
likely to vary widely across the forecast area today. The cold front
which rolled across the area Fri night/sat morning is still located
over central in/oh early this morning. The associated sfc low will
lift into central michigan this evening. The sfc low is weak and
there is some concern that the front will not make it this far north
given the dense near sfc cold layer to the north. The arw and hrrr
do at least lift the front into SRN mi, suggesting some locations
may be able to see temps into the 50s and possibly low 60s.

This upper wave will rapidly dampen as it exits northeast of the
region late tonight allowing mid level short wave ridging to
overspread the area by Monday, supporting a dry forecast. There will
be little cold air intrusion into SRN mi in the wake of this system.

While there is likely to be some residual cloud cover, diurnal
mixing with light w-sw flow will support daytime highs into the 50s
to low 60s. There are model differences with respect to a mid level
short wave firecast to lift out of the SRN plains and across the
ohio valley Mon night along with the amplitude of a northern stream
wave fcst to drop into the NRN great lakes. The GFS is much more
amplified with this northern stream wave. This causes the model to
produce a region of stronger moist isentropic ascent across lower mi
and even suggests some interaction with the southern stream
triggering enhanced mid level deformation right over SE mi. This gfs
solution is thus rather bullish on precip chances Mon night into
tues morning. The ECMWF and canadian on the other hand are weaker
and suggest much lower precip probabilities. Given the uncertainty,
a chance of rain will suffice attm.

Expanding high pressure into the northern great lakes by mid week
will support a northeast component to the sfc wind across SRN mi and
thus relatively cool temperatures. The potential for another wave to
lift into the region from the SRN plains will support the next
chance of rain late in the work week.

Marine...

a weakening low pressure system will track northeastward through the
great lakes today and tonight bringing lighter winds to the region.

Initially easterly winds funneling between the low and high pressure
to the north will stay slightly elevated but should remain below 25
knots for the entire huron basin. Highest winds will be located
across the northern third of the lake. Light winds will persist into
early next week as high pressure tries to build into the region.

Hydrology...

periodic rain showers will continue for yet another day across
southeast michigan. So far the two day totals across the area are
around 1 inch with an additional quarter inch expected today. A
thunderstorm or two may lead to locally higher amount. Regardless of
todays totals, no flooding is anticipated due to the long duration
of the event and relatively low totals over the course of 3 days.

Dtx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Update... ... .Mr
aviation... ..Drk
discussion... Sc
marine... ... .Drk
hydrology... .Drk
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 3 mi58 min S 1.9 G 2.9 42°F 1017.3 hPa (-0.3)
AGCM4 24 mi40 min 47°F 1015.6 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 45 mi40 min 47°F 1015.4 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 45 mi58 min E 6 G 6 37°F
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 47 mi40 min SSE 8.9 G 12 47°F 1015.4 hPa42°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
Last
24hr
NE7
NE13
NE6
E9
E11
E13
G17
E7
G10
E10
E12
E9
E9
NE8
E9
E7
E7
G10
E5
E4
E2
E4
G8
E4
G7
S3
G6
E5
SE6
G11
SE9
1 day
ago
SW13
G19
SW11
G16
SW13
G16
SW13
G18
W7
G11
N24
NE18
G24
NE10
G14
N17
N18
G25
N16
N14
G18
N13
NE15
N10
G14
N11
N13
G16
N16
NE12
NE11
N12
NE13
NE14
E6
2 days
ago
S12
G17
S15
G19
S11
G16
S12
G17
S13
G20
S18
S11
G15
S12
G15
S13
G17
S12
G19
S11
G17
S12
G16
S13
G19
S10
G13
S11
G15
S14
G19
SW11
G20
SW9
G14
SW11
G14
SW11
G14
SW12
G16
SW10
G17
SW9
G18
SW11
G22

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Detroit, Detroit City Airport, MI6 mi65 minSE 410.00 miLight Rain44°F41°F89%1017.2 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI14 mi2 hrsENE 510.00 miOvercast43°F41°F95%1016.7 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI17 mi64 minSSE 610.00 miOvercast45°F39°F80%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
Last 24hrE10E12
G17
E10E13E11E11NE10E9E9E14
G20
E10
G18
E12
G17
E10E10E9E12E10E10E6E6E10E13E10SE4
1 day agoW13
G21
SW14
G26
SW18
G24
W14SW15
G20
SW14SW8SW12E7N12N16
G21
NE8N8N8N8NE5NE6NE7N7N6N8NE7NE6NE10
2 days agoSE8SE8E9E11SE12S10SE8E10SE11SE9SE5SE5SE5S6S10S13
G19
SW8SW13
G20
SW11SW11SW10SW13
G21
W13
G23
SW14
G21

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (12,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.