Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe Woods, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 8:28PM Friday August 18, 2017 12:30 PM EDT (16:30 UTC) Moonrise 2:08AMMoonset 5:12PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 1002 Am Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 pm edt this evening...
Rest of today..West winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. A chance of light showers late in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms until late afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots early in the evening becoming light and variable. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Light and variable winds becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon and evening. Sunny until late afternoon becoming mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201708182030;;572982 FZUS63 KDTX 181402 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1002 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure, 29.50 inches will lift from the Straits to central Quebec by Saturday. High pressure, 30.10 inches will build across the upper Ohio River Valley Saturday night into Sunday. LCZ460-182030-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe Woods, MI
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location: 42.43, -82.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 181627
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1227 pm edt Fri aug 18 2017

Aviation
Ceilings will vary bkn-sct 3-5kft through the afternoon. Tight low
level gradient will produce a moderate westerly flow with mechanical
mixing bringing wind gusts up to 25kts. Clouds and wind will
dissipate decrease towards sunset leading toVFR conditions for most
of the night. Another disturbance and frontal boundary will move
through the area 09-15z bringing mainly a mid level cloud deck across
the north and more towards low endVFR south. Deeper moisture south
will bring a small chance for some light shower activity south so
included a prob30 there. There may also be a brief dip to MVFR with
any shower. Winds will lighten up tonight and continue into Saturday
from a westerly component.

For dtw... Moderate and gusty westerly wind along with 3-5kft
ceilings bkn-sct will decrease dissipate towards sunset.VFR
conditions over night. There may be enough instability this
afternoon yet to produce a brief light shower sprinkle but not
significant enough to include in taf. Increasing lowVFR ceiling
starting around 09z Sat as another mid level wave and surface front
swing though 09-15z. There maybe enough moisture and lift to
produce a few light showers so included a prob30. Any shower
Saturday morning could produce a brief MVFR ceiling. Winds will
remain light westerly through Saturday.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for cigs AOB 5kft
* low for reaching crosswind threshold from 270-280 degrees roughly
19-22z.

Prev discussion
Issued at 343 am edt Fri aug 18 2017
discussion...

low pressure centered over eastern lake superior is sweeping a cold
front through lower michigan during the early morning. The front and
associated clusters of showers will be east of the region shortly
after sunrise leaving cloudy but dry conditions in place across se
michigan during the remainder of the morning. The passage of the
front will bring cooler and less humid air into the region as
surface dewpoint settles into the 60-65 degree range compared to
lower 70s yesterday. Most of the postfrontal low level cold
advection will be complete by late morning which, along with
lingering cyclonic low level flow, will support broad coverage of
stratus stratocu into early afternoon. Decreasing clouds mid to late
afternoon is expected to occur first in the detroit area as the low
level thermal trough follows the low pressure center to the north
and east. Highs around 80 will then be possible with a late boost of
sun while readings linger in the mid 70s for the tri cities and
northern thumb. The gradient trailing the low pressure system will
also support breezy conditions with gusts approaching 30 mph as
boundary layer mixing builds through the day.

The decreasing cloud trend will continue into the evening but will
be short lived as the next upper wave approaches from the midwest.

This system is observed over the plains states this morning and
appears plenty strong enough to support model solutions that
indicate the wave sharpening as it enters the long wave trough over
the great lakes tonight. The surface pressure reflection is shown to
be weak and well south of the ohio border compared to the upper
level features. The farther south position looks ok but the surface
wave could end up deeper as it interacts with the remnant baroclinic
zone in the ohio valley. Backed and slightly stronger low level flow
will then begin northward moisture transport that will be greatest
closer to the surface wave. This is where convective potential will
be better while higher based theta-e advection spreads clouds over
lower michigan with a chance of showers after midnight through
Saturday morning.

The upper level short wave exiting Saturday morning will propel the
long wave trough axis into the eastern great lakes Saturday
afternoon. Subsident northwest flow aloft and building surface high
pressure will produce dry conditions Saturday night through Sunday.

This will be part of a quick transition into a more zonal large
scale upper air configuration heading into next week. Expect
temperatures to return well into the mid and upper 80s by Monday as
surface high pressure shifts toward the atlantic coast. Global model
solutions then project the next wave aloft already developing over
the great lakes by Tuesday. The low pressure system and associated
front will bring the greatest probability of rain Tuesday into
Tuesday night followed by a modest cooling trend for the second half
of next week.

Marine...

a fresh southwest breeze is developing over the waters this morning
as cooler air moves into the area. Cold air in the wake of the cold
front is boosting the over-lake instability profile and will support
wind gusts around 25 knots. Elevated wind gusts to 30 knots are
possible in as the flow funnels through saginaw bay. Maximum wave
heights around 7 feet are likely in outer saginaw bay and the tip of
the thumb. Otherwise the offshore fetch will contain the highest
waves to central and northern lake huron. Wind and waves will then
decrease over the weekend as high pressure builds into the great
lakes region.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for miz049.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422-
441>443.

Lake st clair... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lez444.

Aviation... ..Drc
discussion... Bt
marine... ... .Jvc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 3 mi30 min W 13 G 17 74°F 1008.1 hPa (+0.6)
45147 - Lake St Clair 12 mi90 min W 16 G 19 73°F 72°F1006.7 hPa
AGCM4 24 mi42 min 73°F 1007.5 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 45 mi42 min 77°F 1006.3 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 45 mi40 min W 20 G 22 74°F
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 47 mi42 min WSW 11 G 19 76°F 1006.2 hPa62°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI6 mi37 minW 8 G 2310.00 miOvercast74°F62°F67%1007.6 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI14 mi92 minW 1010.00 miShowers in Vicinity73°F64°F74%1007.2 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI17 mi36 minW 13 G 1910.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F62°F67%1008.8 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10SW5SW3S9SE3S8S7S7SW8SW8W12W10W12W10
G18
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1 day ago6SE8SE7E8E9SE10E9SE9SE6SE6SE6SE7SE8SE6SE8SE7SE8SE6SE7S5SE5SE6S5S10
2 days agoCalmCalmN75NE4E6NE7E7E6E7E3E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmNE3E7E8SE8E6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.