Monday, November19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Nahant, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 4:19PM Monday November 19, 2018 11:33 AM EST (16:33 UTC) Moonrise 3:47PMMoonset 3:23AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ230 Boston Harbor- 1024 Am Est Mon Nov 19 2018
This afternoon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. Rain likely this morning.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft, except 4 to 5 ft at the outer harbor entrance. Rain. A chance of snow in the afternoon. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of snow in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1024 Am Est Mon Nov 19 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A weak weather system will move across the waters this afternoon bringing a chance of rain. Low pressure moves up from the midwest and passes along the south coasts of ri and massachusetts Tuesday morning and midday. This will bring another chance of rain tonight and Tuesday. High pressure then builds cold and dry weather for Wednesday through Friday...including thanksgiving day. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nahant, MA
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location: 42.44, -70.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 191503
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
1003 am est Mon nov 19 2018

Synopsis
A weak wave of low pressure will bring light snow to the region this
morning changing to rain except freezing rain in the worcester hills
and east slopes of the berkshires. A stronger wave of low pressure
will likely impact the area later tonight into Tuesday with
accumulating snow across northern massachusetts. Rain may change to
snow before ending Tuesday afternoon across ct, ri and eastern ma.

An arctic front sweeps across the region late Wednesday followed by
near record cold and bitterly cold wind chills Wed night through
thanksgiving day. Dry weather with less wind and moderating
temperatures Fri and sat. However wintry weather may return to
southern new england Sat night into Sunday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
10 am update...

light rain continuing into the early afternoon hours, dissipating,
with pockets of freezing rain across the higher terrain at or
above 1000 feet early on. Stretched mid-level vortmax through
the broader cyclonic flow, thermal packing enhancement, noting
h7-9 frontogenesis along which a fairly decent moist layer h6-9,
per 12z albany sounding, is being lofted. Warm intrusion around
h95 with shallow cold air lingering, not for long given light
winds, absence of colder air n, little in the wave of draining
s isallobaric flow, should see some isolated pockets of freezing
rain mainly confined to high terrain. Should end as late as 11
am, special weather statement issued to account for potential
impacts, whereas light rain should conclude, lift off ne, into
the early afternoon hours. A brief break before the next round
of weather later this evening. Light winds overall, cloud cover
and precipitation limiting daytime heating expect over the se
where low-level SW flow is promoting some influx of drying and
warmer air. Highs around the low to mid 40s N and central, while
over the S upper 40s to low 50s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday
Trough digging south from canada sharpens over the great lakes
and turns the upper flow from the southwest along the eastern
usa. This brings another jet up the coast to new england with
southern new england under the left exit region. Model cross
sections show lift of 40-70 mb hour moving over southern new
england between 1 am and 1 pm.

Surface low pressure moves with this area of lift and across
the south coast overnight and Tuesday morning, then off to nova
scotia toward Tuesday evening. Winds along the south coast will
turn from the south southwest and bring milder temps near 50 to
that area while north to northeast winds maintain the colder air
over more northern parts of massachusetts as well as northern
ri and northern ct. Temperatures in these areas will remain in
the upper 20s and 30s.

The moisture column with this system will be deep, but pw values
will be 0.8 inches or less, and closer to 0.5 inches in northern
mass. High probability of precip, and a temperature profile
favorable for snow in north central and western massachusetts.

Moisture values suggest 2-4 inches of snow in those areas,
especially in the hills. We have issued a winter weather
advisory for tonight and Tuesday for north central mass and the
east slopes of the berkshires.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
4 am update...

highlights...

* arctic front late Wed with snow squalls possible
* near record cold & bitterly cold wind chills Wed night thanksgiving
* moderating temps and dry Friday into Saturday
* wintry weather possible Sat night into Sunday
Tuesday night...

drying trend develops behind departing short wave trough with
surface wave over gulf of maine at 00z Wed and rapidly exiting into
the maritimes. Short wave ridging behind this feature provides dry
weather Tue night. Modest CAA on wnw winds will yield seasonable
cool temps.

Wednesday...

arctic front moves thru the region 18z-00z. Models differ on track
of arctic frontal wave. The NAM is farthest to the south across the
nh ma border, while the remainder of the guidance is across northern
new england. The NAM solution would yield more frontal convergence
into northern ma resulting in a greater risk of snow squalls. While
reminder of guidance keeps greater risk across northern new england.

Still almost 72 hrs out so will have to see how later model runs
trend. NAM solution supports steep low level 0-2 km theta-e lapse
rates and plenty of low level moisture for instability to be
realized. This combined with shallow robust convergence would
support potential for a few strong snow squalls. Given very busy
holiday travel Wed will have to watch this closely. Regarding high
temps, 925 mb temps peak around -4c ahead of the arctic front, so
could see highs 35-40 before the frontal passage.

Wednesday night and thanksgiving...

near record cold and accompanied by bitterly cold wind chills as
arctic airmass overspreads the region. By 12z Thu model guid has 850
temps down to -20c to -22c across the region! These values are -3
standard deviations colder than climo. 1000-500 thicknesses are
impressive as well, with 498 dam contour traversing northern ma!
given the magnitude of arctic airmass we followed by the coldest
guid which yields mins just before sunrise Thu of 5 to 15 followed
by temps only rebounding into the upper teens and low 20s
thanksgiving day. In addition strong northwest winds will provide
bitterly cold wind chills. For outer CAPE cod, arctic air streaming
in on nnw winds will resulting in possible ocean effect snow showers
with the greatest probability from pvc to cqx given wind trajectory.

Friday...

cold anomalous trough moves offshore with arctic 1037 mb high
settling over the region. Very cold morning with lows in the single
digits and teens! Temp moderate into the upper 20s and lower 30s.

Thus not as cold as Thu and especially less wind. However still much
colder than normal as normal highs should be around 50! Nevertheless
much more tolerable than thu.

Next weekend...

dry weather possibly lingers into much of sat. However active
weather pattern with next trough approaching the region Sat night
into Sunday. Its a southern stream system so abundant moisture is
available. Given cold air from Thu Fri retreats looks warm enough
for rain however still 6-7 days away. Nonetheless heavy rain
potential that would impact heavy travel day Sunday.

Aviation 15z Monday through Friday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ... High confidence.

Rest of today...

mix MVFR to low-endVFR. Will hold ifr for the high terrain and
closer to the ma nh vt border with respect to CIGS and vsbys.

Light winds overall. Pockets -fzra for high terrain terminals
through 16z, otherwise -ra lingering through early afternoon
then a break before the next storm into this evening.

Tonight and Tuesday...

short break in precipitation through the evening, then another
area moves up from near midnight through midday Tuesday. MVFR
cigs at the start, trending to ifr shortly before the Tuesday
morning push. Temperatures from bos to hfd and points northwest
will be cold enough for snow or a mix of rain and snow.

Meanwhile temperatures from southeast mass through ri and parts
of northern ct will be warm enough for rain. The rain and snow
should taper off during the evening.

Winds will be from the north and northeast most places with
gusts near 25 kt along the coast. South coast areas and the
islands may see a shift out of the south and southwest during
the afternoon with gusts 20-25 kt.

Kbos terminal...

hold with MVFR, light winds, and -ra through early afternoon. A
break but CIGS only lifting 2-3 kft with a lull in outcomes.

Then looking at lowering conditions evening and overnight with
snra mix through early morning before changing over to all ra.

MVFR-ifr CIGS and vsbys with increasing N NE winds through the
day shifting NW into evening and overnight. Gusts potentially as
high as 25 kts with N winds.

Kbdl terminal...

keep MVFR through early afternoon with the possibility of a late
afternoon break up around low-endVFR. Then lower conditions
moving back in towards evening continuing through overnight.

Rasn mix right through the Tuesday morning push, becoming all
rain towards midday. Mostly ifr, improving MVFR toVFR late
Tuesday into Tuesday evening. N winds throughout shifting nw
late. Somewhat breezy, especially late with potential gusts up
to 20 kts.

Outlook Tuesday night through Friday ...

Tuesday: mainly ifr, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Ra
likely, chance sn.

Tuesday night:VFR. Breezy.

Wednesday: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Slight chance shsn.

Wednesday night through thanksgiving day:VFR. Windy with gusts
to 35 kt.

Thursday night:VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt.

Friday:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ... High confidence.

Today...

variable wind shifts from the south this afternoon before turning
out of the northwest. Speeds will remain below 20 kt. Seas 3 feet
or less. Light rain through mid afternoon with good visibility.

Tonight and Tuesday...

low pressure moves northeast from the ohio valley and crosses
the new england south coast Tuesday morning and midday.

Northeast winds lead the weather system, turning from the north
Tuesday afternoon. Winds on the southern waters may turn from
the south and southwest as the weather system moves along the
south coast. Wind speeds will reach small craft levels on
Tuesday on most waters, 25-30 kt. Seas will be 3 feet or less
tonight, building to 5-7 feet on Tuesday.

Outlook Tuesday night through Friday ...

Tuesday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain. Local visibility
1 to 3 nm.

Tuesday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Wednesday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Wednesday night: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of snow showers.

Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Thanksgiving day: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up
to 35 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of snow showers.

Visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Thursday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Local visibility 1 to
3 nm.

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Climate
With the potential of the coldest air of the season moving into
the region around thanksgiving, here are the record temperatures
for november 22nd and the holiday of thanksgiving.

November 22nd
location record low record minimum high
boston... ... ... .9 (1879) 24 (1880)
hartford... ... .14 (1969) 27 (1978)
providence... ..16 (1987) 30 (2008)
worcester... ... 11 (1987) 24 (2008)
thanksgiving
location record low record minimum high
boston... ... ... 11 (nov 27, 1873) 24 (nov 28, 1901)
hartford... ... .12 (nov 28, 2002) 27 (nov 23, 1989)
providence... ..14 (nov 23, 1972) 30 (nov 28, 1996)
worcester... ... .9 (nov 23, 1989) 22 (nov 23, 1989)

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... Winter weather advisory from 10 pm this evening to 5 pm est
Tuesday for maz002>004-008-009-026.

Ri... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Wtb nocera
near term... Wtb nocera sipprell
short term... Wtb
long term... Nocera
aviation... Wtb nocera sipprell
marine... Wtb nocera sipprell
climate... Sipprell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 8 mi33 min 38°F 1020 hPa (-1.4)
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 17 mi43 min WNW 7.8 G 9.7 45°F 51°F2 ft1019.1 hPa (-1.2)43°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 21 mi89 min NW 5.8 G 7.8 44°F 46°F2 ft1018.9 hPa
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 40 mi33 min NNE 8.9 G 9.9 40°F 1019.5 hPa (-1.7)40°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 43 mi48 min NW 1 33°F 33°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 45 mi43 min SSE 9.7 G 9.7 48°F 2 ft1019.4 hPa (-1.7)43°F

Wind History for Providence, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA6 mi39 minNW 54.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist38°F35°F89%1019.9 hPa
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA10 mi40 minN 43.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist36°F33°F89%1019.5 hPa
East Milton, MA18 mi37 minNW 5 mi34°F34°F100%1020.4 hPa
Laurence G Hanscom Field Airport, MA19 mi37 minWNW 41.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist35°F32°F89%1021.6 hPa
Norwood, Norwood Memorial Airport, MA21 mi40 minNW 34.00 miFog/Mist39°F36°F89%1019.9 hPa
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA22 mi39 minN 43.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist36°F32°F86%1020.9 hPa

Wind History from BOS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--E4E5E5SE6S6SE7S6SW5SW6SW5CalmN3CalmCalmN4--N3N7N6N6NW4N5NW5
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Tide / Current Tables for Lynn, Lynn Harbor, Massachusetts
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Boston Harbor, Massachusetts Current
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Boston Harbor
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:43 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:23 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:03 AM EST     1.14 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:39 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:38 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:03 PM EST     -1.20 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 02:10 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:46 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:18 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:24 PM EST     1.12 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:55 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.1-0.70.30.91.11.110.4-0.2-0.6-0.9-1.1-1.2-1-0.20.711.11.10.6-0-0.5-0.9-1.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.