Tuesday, October24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lynn, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 5:48PM Tuesday October 24, 2017 7:08 AM EDT (11:08 UTC) Moonrise 11:28AMMoonset 9:15PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ230 Boston Harbor- 526 Am Edt Tue Oct 24 2017
.gale warning in effect from 2 pm edt this afternoon through Wednesday morning...
Today..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 45 kt this afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Waves around 2 ft, except 3 to 5 ft at the outer harbor entrance. Showers with a chance of tstms. Some tstms may produce gusty winds, and heavy rainfall. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less, except 2 to 4 ft at the outer harbor entrance. Patchy fog. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Patchy fog. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Fri night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sat..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 526 Am Edt Tue Oct 24 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A trailing cold front to a deep low over the great lakes region will become the focus of moderate to heavy rain along with southerly gales late tonight into Wednesday. Pushing offshore into Thursday, a ridge of high pressure follows for Friday into Saturday. Another shot of active weather is possible towards the end of the weekend into early next week. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lynn, MA
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location: 42.45, -70.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 240739
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
339 am edt Tue oct 24 2017

Synopsis
Scattered showers developing ahead of the main line of moderate
to heavy rain expected this afternoon continuing into Wednesday
ahead of a sweeping cold front. Potential hazards of flooding,
strong to damaging winds, and severe weather included. Expect a
few lingering showers Thursday. High pressure then builds up
from the southern usa to bring fair dry weather Friday and the
weekend. Another deep weather system approaches from the west
late Sunday and Monday.

Near term until 4 pm this afternoon
330 am update...

increasing areal coverage of wet weather. The combination of
upslope ascent of sub-tropical air lifted by the presence of
increasing convergent low-level winds (via latest near-term
guidance and vertical wind profilers) is resulting in the
development of widespread rain with embedded heavier showers.

Expect the wet weather trends to continue over the course morning
into afternoon hours especially over the W half of the forecast
region. Could see some lowered visibility with the locally heavy
downpours in addition to increasing S winds. Temperatures remaining
steady or slowly rising beneath the thick deck of clouds.

Short term 4 pm this afternoon through 6 pm Wednesday
* highlights...

- trailing cold front to an occlusion across the great lakes ushers
threats of flooding, strong to damaging winds, and perhaps
some severe weather
- impacts mainly late Tuesday into Wednesday
* overview...

an anomalous, stormy setup Tuesday into Wednesday. Contributions via
teleconnections, the mjo in particular, yields a greater transfer of
energy between the equator and poles subsequent of an high-amplified
pattern of troughs and ridges with the E CONUS beneath preferred
troughing. The buckled, slow pattern lends to a more active weather
given strong synoptics and transfer of energy as well as increased
residency time of threats and impacts.

In our case, a presently ongoing deep low occlusion across the great
lakes region beneath a closed h5 low will undergo a dying transition
as it becomes stacked and fills. Behind this feature, drier air
wraps within pushing a surface cold front E which stalls against h5
ridging over the NW atlantic late today into Wednesday. It isn't
until additional pacific-energy rounds the base of the occlusion
that cyclogenesis is promoted immediately offshore of new england in
regions of greater baroclinicity kicking out to sea the cold front
and sub-tropical air as the now open-wave h5 trough takes on a
negative tilt.

Synoptics and cyclogenesis throughout the forecast period, winds
strengthen aloft drawing N sub-tropical, unstable air. Potential
threats emerge of flooding rains, severe weather, and damaging
winds. Will hit on the specifics in the details below focusing on
the what, where and when.

* details...

flooding rains...

- initially this afternoon into evening
- secondary threat area possible over E SE new england late wed
- 1" hr rainfall rates with storm totals in excess of 3"
- flash flood watch maintained and not expanded at this time
excessive rain threat, especially with heavier showers and thunder-
storms. Precipitable waters in excess of 1.5 inches, +3-4 standard
deviations above normal. Conditionally unstable column moistening
throughout, especially along the lifting cold front as freezing
levels hover around 13 kft signaling potential warm-rain processes.

A mean S to N fetch of sub-tropical air yielding likely training of
rain. Coupled instability plume up as high as around 1k j kg. And
considering flash flood guidance values ranging around 2-3 inches
for both the 1-hour and 3-hour timeframe.

Altogether, rainfall rates in excess of 1-inch hour and storm-total
rainfall in excess of 3-inches not out of the question. Developing
by late afternoon Tuesday, gradually sweeping E but slowing against
high pressure over the NW atlantic. Absent forcing but better lift
associated with the cold front and support via low-level jet (llj)
and surface upslope e-component of wind along the high terrain.

Cips ncar SREF ping on flood threats from scranton pa into albany ny
towards W ma and W ct early on. But threats may continue E given the
slow progression of the cold front along which S to N training
continues. This prior to renewed cyclogenesis off the coast prior to
a secondary vortmax kicking everything offshore late Wednesday into
Wednesday night.

Agree with the prior shift on the initial flash flood watch to the w
noting area river basins can get flashier given the high terrain and
narrow channels, runoff can be exacerbated. However, this flash
flood watch may need to be extended e, especially E SE new england
around the i-95 corridor with particular attention to the Wednesday
pm timeframe into Wednesday night. Will allow later shifts to take
another look.

Strong to damaging winds...

- S gusts in excess of 40 to 45 mph
- late Tuesday through Wednesday
- wind advisory continues for all of S new england
s winds 2-3 kft agl up around 60 as high as 70 mph, +3-4 standard
deviations above normal. Increasing this morning, the height later
Tuesday diminishing into Wednesday as the LLJ sweeps E along and
ahead of the surface cold front. Conditionally unstable profile
merited with instability as high as around 1k j kg, the potential
for thunderstorms along with the threat of heavy rain given both the
lift and forcing mechanisms in place, can't rule out mechanical mix-
down (precipitation drag) of faster momentum just immediately aloft
to the surface even in the nocturnal timeframe in addition to
boundary layer mixing with the conditionally unstable profile.

Widespread wind gusts in excess of 40 mph, in excess of 45 mph for
some locations, again late Tuesday into Wednesday, W to e. Trees
either leafed or losing leaves, aside, not getting too cute, will
keep the wind advisory for all of S new england. Forecast may be far
from perfect, perhaps not reaching criteria within out forecast
grids. However, given the time of year and winds forecast, there is
the expectation of downed trees, tree limbs, and power lines.

Severe weather...

- potential for a brief spin-up of a tornado
- non zero threat, at minimum damaging wind potential
- agree with SPC outlook, impacts late Tuesday into Wednesday morn
conditionally unstable profiles yield stretched elevated instability
throughout the column as high as around 1k j kg. In areas of strong
0-1 0-3 km shear and helicity well above thresholds of consideration
there is definitely the threat that with any thunderstorm there is
the possibility of a brief spin-up of a tornado.

Agree with the SPC convective outlook noting its collocation with
the SREF significant tornado parameter. Mainly focused out W around
the albany area during the later half of Tuesday as the cold front
approaches the high terrain ahead of which S winds usher a sub-
tropical, unstable profile n. The region on the leading edge of the
mid level dry slot wrapping around the great lakes occlusion. This
activity likely to drift into W ma and ct towards the evening hours
with the sweeping cold front, the severe threat still needed to be
monitored along the cold front overnight as it continues e.

Some uncertainty. Perhaps a more robust, supportive environment for
convection per cips ncar over the coastal mid-atlantic and across
the adjacent waters E that could rob the sub-tropical, unstable
environment from filtering n.

Aside, believe there is a non-zero threat for severe weather over
all S new england beginning late Tuesday continuing into Wednesday
morning ahead of the sweeping cold front. Given the wind orientation
and nature of the cold front, at a minimum will likely be dealing
with either embedded cores and or a fine-line of convection that can
manifest faster, damaging winds to the surface requiring short-fused
headlines.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
Big picture...

the longwave scale features a persistent ridge along and offshore of
the pacific coast, while a broad trough covers the usa east of the
rockies including new england. Shortwave scale shows a plains upper
low sweeping east as a deep shortwave this week and crossing new
england around Thursday. A second shortwave moves east from the gulf
of alaska into canada, then digs over the plains late in the week
and sweeps across the eastern usa early next week. This suggests two
stormy periods midweek and early next week with a period of dry
weather in between. Height fields build above average over the
weekend, so the dry period looks to be milder than normal.

Mass fields are similar through Friday. Differences in details pop
up over the midwest during the weekend, but all indicate an
upper trough over that area that moves east and draws surface
low pressure up the east coast Sunday and Monday. High
confidence in the forecast late this week, trending to moderate
early next week.

Details...

Wednesday night-Thursday... Moderate-high confidence.

Drier air moves in from the west Wednesday night especially
after midnight. Expect diminishing pops during the night as
the cold front moves farther offshore.

Upper low and its -26c cold pool will move across new england
Thursday with totals of 50-55 from late morning through afternoon.

Lifted indices are marginal but lightly subzero. Meanwhile, moisture
fields are briefly favorable in the afternoon. This suggests a
period of convection, showers and possibly some thunder. We will
increase pops to chance levels with highest values in western and
central mass.

Friday through Sunday morning... High confidence.

High pressure builds up from the southern usa. Mixing looks to reach
900-925 mb, where temps are supportive of MAX sfc temps in the 60s.

Light wind Friday night and dew points 35 to 45 suggest min sfc
temps in the mid 30s to the 40s. Then as the high shifts east
sat and sun, the overall flow will become southeast to east.

Sunday afternoon through Monday... Moderate confidence.

Increasing moisture Sunday with increasing low level south to
southeast jet of 50-60 knots moving up the mid atlantic coast. The
strong low level jet crosses new england Sunday night and Monday
morning. The upper jet remains over new york Sunday, then crosses
new england Sunday night and Monday. Precipitable water values are
forecast to reach between 1.5 and 2.0 inches. A 1.5 inch value would
be near the MAX for the day, suggesting a slug of water. Timing on
these features will likely shift over the next few forecast
packages, but the overall pattern suggests a period of showers and
strong gusty wind.

Aviation 07z Tuesday through Saturday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday ... Moderate confidence.

Into this morning...

trend low-endVFR to MVFR with cigs. Highest confidence of any
ifr across the high terrain. Similar trends with respect to fg.

Increasing S winds with gusts up to 25 kts along the S coast.

Risk of llws as winds 2 kft agl will be 35 to 40 kts, especially
in sheltered interior valleys. Increasing coverage of -ra ra may
result in some tempo vsby restrictions.

Tuesday through Wednesday...

continued low-endVFR and MVFR CIGS with ifr confined to high
terrain. However, areas of -ra ra expand slowly across the region
today. +ra closer to 20z across W areas with a risk of tsra. Tempo
ifr with such conditions. S SE winds gusting as high as 40 to 45
kts. Areas of llws with S winds 2 kft agl around 50 kts. Rain
threats linger into Wednesday, however winds diminish.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Will keep low-endVFR to MVFR CIGS with increasing winds. Ra +ra
threat into the terminal after the pm push.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Will keep low-endVFR to MVFR CIGS with increasing winds. Ra +ra
threat into the terminal closer to 21z.

Outlook Wednesday night through Saturday ...

Wednesday night...

MVFR ifr conditions possible. Shra likely, patchy br.

Thursday...

MVFR ifr conditions possible. Breezy. Chance shra, slight
chance tsra.

Thursday night...

mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Patchy br.

Friday...

vfr.

Friday night...

mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Areas br.

Saturday...

vfr.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday ...

ahead of a cold front sweeping the waters late tonight and on
through Wednesday expect increasing areal coverage of moderate
to heavy rain along with strengthening S winds exceeding gale
force with the potential of gusts up around 45 kts. Can't rule
out a thunderstorm as well. Temporary reductions in visibility
due to rain. Seas building 10 to 12 feet on the outer waters.

Will see wind and wave action diminish slowly through Wednesday.

Outlook Wednesday night through Saturday ...

Wednesday night...

winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Rain showers.

Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Thursday...

winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Chance of rain
showers.

Thursday night...

winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Friday...

winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Friday night...

winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas near 5 ft on the outer
waters. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm in fog.

Saturday...

winds less than 25 kt. Seas 4 feet or less.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... Wind advisory from noon today to 11 am edt Wednesday for
ctz002>004.

Flash flood watch from this evening through Wednesday morning
for ctz002.

Ma... Wind advisory from noon today to 11 am edt Wednesday for
maz002>024-026.

Flash flood watch from this evening through Wednesday morning
for maz002-003-008>011.

Ri... Wind advisory from noon today to 11 am edt Wednesday for
riz001>008.

Marine... Gale warning from 11 am this morning to 2 pm edt Wednesday for
anz231>234-250-254>256.

Gale warning from 2 pm this afternoon to 8 am edt Wednesday
for anz230-236-251.

Gale warning from 11 am this morning to 8 am edt Wednesday for
anz235-237.

Synopsis... Wtb sipprell
near term... Sipprell
short term... Sipprell
long term... Wtb sipprell
aviation... Wtb sipprell
marine... Wtb sipprell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 8 mi51 min 66°F 1016 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 17 mi79 min SE 18 G 19 62°F 59°F3 ft1017.2 hPa (-1.6)
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 21 mi125 min SE 14 G 16 62°F 59°F3 ft1017.4 hPa
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 40 mi69 min SE 22 G 23 61°F 1017.2 hPa (-1.6)59°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 43 mi84 min ESE 2.9 62°F 1018 hPa60°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 48 mi33 min 59°F4 ft

Wind History for Providence, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA6 mi15 minSSE 910.00 miOvercast65°F63°F93%1016.9 hPa
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA9 mi16 minSE 12 G 1910.00 miOvercast64°F62°F93%1016.4 hPa
Bedford, Hanscom Field, MA18 mi73 minSE 1010.00 miLight Rain65°F61°F87%1017.3 hPa
East Milton, MA19 mi73 minSSE 15 G 22 mi64°F62°F93%1017.7 hPa
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA21 mi15 minSSE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy66°F62°F87%1017.2 hPa
Norwood, Norwood Memorial Airport, MA21 mi16 minSSE 72.50 miRain Fog/Mist67°F66°F97%1016.7 hPa

Wind History from BOS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3SE3E4E4E6E5E7E6E8E5E4E3CalmCalmE3E5SE4S6S9S10SE10SE10S10S9
1 day agoW4CalmNE5E4E6E8E10E10NE9E7E7E6NE6NE4NE3Calm--CalmCalmNE33CalmSE5Calm
2 days agoS4SW4SW4S4W6S7SW4W8W10--W9SE9S9S5SW8SW5S4SW4SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Lynn, Lynn Harbor, Massachusetts
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Lynn
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:48 AM EDT     8.93 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:43 AM EDT     1.26 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:56 PM EDT     9.52 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:14 PM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:15 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.27.18.68.98.26.74.93.11.61.32.33.95.77.699.58.97.45.53.51.60.612.2

Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Marblehead Channel
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:03 AM EDT     0.37 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 03:38 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:06 AM EDT     -0.32 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 10:03 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:12 PM EDT     0.38 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 03:54 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:31 PM EDT     -0.35 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 09:14 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:36 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.40.30.1-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-00.30.40.40.30.2-0-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.20.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.