Sunrise 5:56 AM   Sunset 7:49 PM Moonrise 8:53 PM   Moonset 6:04 AM

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FXUS61 KALY 240732 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 332 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

SYNOPSIS
A low pressure system will bring some showers to the region into this afternoon, then colder air returns for tonight behind a strong cold front. High pressure will bring a return to dry weather to end the week. Following a cool day on Thursday, seasonable temperatures return Friday into Saturday with a warmup Sunday into Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A low pressure system and strong cold front will cross the region through this afternoon. Rain showers will continue ahead of the cold front through the morning hours. Thereafter, precipitation will become more isolated to scattered by the afternoon. Some breaks of sun and daytime heating is possible ahead of the cold front for areas along and east of the Hudson River. The upper-level trough axis and cold pool will be directly overhead during the midday and steepening low and mid- level lapse rates could result in some weak surface- based instability on the order of 500 J/kg per forecast soundings.
CAMs also support the potential for some convective shower development. As a result, we included a slight chance for thunder in the forecast. This activity should remain well below severe limits, however, with boundary layer moisture and shear rather low. Precipitation ends from west to east during the afternoon in the wake of the cold frontal passage. There remains a chance enough cold air arrives for some snowflakes to mix in across the Adirondacks before ending but no accumulation is expected. High temperatures today will range from the mid to upper 40s across the Adirondacks and southern Greens to the lower 60s across portions of the Hudson Valley into southern Litchfield County before falling behind the cold front.

Northwesterly winds will pick up behind the front and much colder and drier air will quickly advance into the region tonight as Canadian high pressure builds in from the west. The strongest winds will occur during the late afternoon and evening hours (some gusts over 30 mph possible) but ease overnight as the high builds overhead. There may still be enough wind to prevent ideal radiational cooling conditions. However, any locations that do decouple could fall a bit further than our current forecast. Most areas will fall into the 20s with some teens possible across the Adirondacks and southern Greens.
These values are about 5 degrees above current record lows for April 25.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
High pressure will be anchored over the region for the remainder of the week and result in clear/mostly clear and dry weather with light winds. Following a cold morning, highs on Thursday will only reach the 50s with some upper 40s across the higher elevations. These values are around 5-8 degrees below normal.
Ideal radiational cooling conditions Thursday night will send low temperatures back into the 20s to lower 30s. Weak warm air advection on Friday will lead to a milder day with highs closer to normal, in the 50s and 60s. It will not be as cool Friday night with lows mainly in the 30s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
An upper level ridge axis is expected to move east across the region on Sat. Dry conditions should prevail at least into the afternoon. A warm front approaching from the west will bring increasing clouds during the afternoon and perhaps a few showers, especially west of the Hudson Valley. Highs look to be near normal. Southerly winds will increase with surface high pressure shifting southeast off the New England coast. The upper ridge will flatten out a bit, along with the surface warm front moving through Sat night. This will result in mainly scattered light showers. Lows will be milder in the 40s.

The warm front will lift north of our region on Sun, as upper ridging becomes re-established. 500 mb height anomalies of +1 to +2 STDEV are forecast. This will result in temperatures warming to above normal levels with lower/mid 70s for highs in most valleys. Will mention a slight/low chance of a few showers with a surface front nearby, but overall it looks mainly dry Sun through Sun night. The warmest temperatures are likely to occur on Mon, with the upper ridge axis overhead, 850 mb temperatures anomalies solidly +1 to +2 STDEV, and low level SW winds. With a quasi-stationary front expected to be just north of the area a few showers or storms cannot be ruled out, but again much of the day looks dry.

A cold front is forecast to move through on Tue, bringing a better chance for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will still be above normal, but not as warm as Monday due to clouds/showers developing.

AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Through 06z Thursday...A cold front approaching from the north/west will move across the TAF sites from late this morning into early afternoon. Mainly scattered -SHRA will accompany the front. Prevailing conditions should mainly be VFR, although a period of MVFR is possible after 12z as the front pushes through. Highest confidence in MVFR is at KGFL, with somewhat lower confidence at KALB/KPSF where TEMPO groups have mention of MVFR. VFR should prevail at KPOU. Isolated -TSRA are possible this afternoon after the cold front passes through with a potent upper level disturbance moves across the region.
Coverage too sparse to mention in TAFs for now, but will continue to monitor trends.

VFR conditions with clearing skies expected from late afternoon through the end of the period as strong area of high pressure builds in from the north/west.

Winds will be mainly southerly around 5-15 kt with some gusts to around 20 kt through the overnight hours. Winds will shift to the west-northwest behind the cold front by early afternoon at 10-15 kt with gusts of 20-25 kt expected. Winds will shift to a more northerly direction by early evening.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

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