Saturday, February24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ravena, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 5:40PM Saturday February 24, 2018 10:54 AM EST (15:54 UTC) Moonrise 12:58PMMoonset 2:59AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ravena, NY
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location: 42.45, -73.78     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 241515
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
1015 am est Sat feb 24 2018

Synopsis
It will be milder and mainly dry today, but some rain showers
will become likely this afternoon across portions of the
catskills, mid hudson valley and northwest connecticut. Another
round of mixed precipitation and rain is expected tonight into
Sunday as a complex storm system moves from the great lakes late
tonight through our region on Sunday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 1010 am, changes in the forecast were made to raise pops
significantly across ulster-dutchess-litchfield counties this
afternoon. Despite a feed of drier air as surface high pressure
builds in from the north and west, an area of rain showers is
currently moving across northern pa associated with 850 to 700
mb frontogenesis. Latest models suggest this area of forcing
will win out against the dry air, with rain showers becoming
likely after noon. Likely to be a sharp cutoff in the rainfall
to the north, so areas within the schoharie valley, capital
district, northern berkshires, and points north are still
expected to remain dry today. Temperatures have spiked nicely
this morning as diurnal mixing has occurred, although with
clouds increasing and cold air advection commencing, it's not
likely that temperatures will increase much from their late
morning values.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Monday
Winter weather advisory 1 am to 1 pm Sunday for all areas except
the greater capital district and mid hudson valley.

For tonight... Clouds will increase this evening from southwest
to northeast as a warm front moves into the ohio valley late
this evening. A nearly ideal cold air damming situation is
setting up as cold air will drain southward and westward from
the high pressure center which will be up over the canadian
maritimes. After an initial burst of snow with a couple of
inches possible across northern areas, most of the precipitation
overnight will fall in the form of sleet and freezing rain
based on partial thickness values. The areas which may see
little in the way of mixed precipitation include the greater
capital district and mid hudson valley which after a little
sleet will change to rain. Lows tonight will be in the mid 20s
to mid 30s.

On Sunday the mixed precipitation will likely change to rain
before tapering off during the afternoon from southwest to
northeast as low pressure moves across the region carrying a
cold front through the region late in the day. Total ice
accretion across the winter weather advisory area is expected to
be up to three tenths of an inch before the changeover to plain
rain. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

Dry weather is expected Sunday night and Monday as high
pressure builds east from the mid west. Expect partly cloudy skies
Sunday night with a good deal of Sun on Monday. Lows Sunday
night will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s with highs on Monday in
the upper 30s to lower 50s.

Long term Monday night through Friday
Period of relative calm Tuesday-Wednesday, before possible storm
system affects at least portions of region for Thursday-Friday.

High pressure will translate east from the ohio valley to the mid
atlantic coast Tuesday-Wednesday, bringing generally fair and mild
conditions. A weak disturbance passing north of the region could
bring some clouds, and perhaps rain snow showers to the adirondacks
late Wednesday or Wednesday night. Otherwise, expect high
temperatures to reach the mid 40s to lower 50s, warmest on Wednesday
in valley areas. Overnight lows will be mainly in the 20s.

There are signals from multiple global models and their ensemble
suites of a developing coastal storm for Thursday-Friday, although
the exact details regarding any track or evolution are obviously
sketchy at this time range. However, several pieces of the puzzle
which suggest some form of a slow moving, potentially high-impact
storm include a possible strong blocking upper level high
retrograding west southwest to the south of greenland, as well as
strong pieces of energy both in the northern and southern stream
approaching from the west. If the two incoming pieces of energy are
timed just right and phase, the retrograding block to the north
could allow for a closed mid upper tropospheric low to develop, and
could allow any surface low to remain slow moving, although too
strong of a block could shunt the storm farther south and east of
the region and limit any impacts. These initial signals could favor
an elevation snow storm across the region, if not more widespread.

So again, trends will need to be watched through the upcoming week.

For now, chances of rain snow in valleys, and mainly snow for higher
elevations have been included for late Thursday into Friday. Daytime
highs are currently forecast to be in the upper 30s to mid 40s
Thursday, cooling to the 30s to around 40 Friday, although these
temperatures could be colder if stratiform precipitation occurs.

Overnight lows mainly in the upper 20s to lower mid 30s.

Aviation 15z Saturday through Wednesday
An occluded front will sweep across the TAF sites around or
shortly after daybreak. Weak high pressure will build across
for today, before a developing storm system over the southern
plains tracks northeast into the great lakes region tonight into
Sunday.

Areas of ifr lifr CIGS should improve to MVFR by 14z sat, as
slightly drier air moves into the region behind the occluded
front. MainlyVFR conditions are then expected for this
afternoon and evening.

Some light rain may develop at kpou after 19z sat, as an upper
level disturbance passes south of the region. Despite light
rain, generallyVFR conditions are expected.

Steadier precipitation is expected to expand northward across
the TAF sites after 09z sun. Although mainly rain is expected at
kpou, elsewhere, a mix of snow sleet and rain is expected.

Winds will shift into the west and increase to 8-12 kt this
morning, with some gusts possibly reaching 20-25 kt at times,
esp at kalb and kpsf. Winds will gradually veer into the
northwest to north this afternoon and decrease to 5-10 kt. Winds
will become light variable tonight, becoming east to northeast
toward 12z Sun at 5-10 kt.

Low level wind shear will remain likely through 14z Sat at
kalb kgfl and kpou, as surface winds remain fairly light from
the southwest to west at less than 8 kt, while winds around 2000
ft agl become west to northwest and increase to 30-35 kt.

Outlook...

Saturday night: high operational impact. Definite ra... Sn... Sleet.

Sunday: high operational impact. Breezy definite ra.

Sunday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Monday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Monday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Tuesday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Tuesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Wednesday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Hydrology
Ice jams remain in place on multiple locations on the mohawk
river from about lock 9 through the twin bridges and on the
upper hudson river in central warren county.

Expect mainly dry weather into this evening. However,
widespread precipitation will overspread the area later tonight
and continue most of Sunday as another low pressure system
approaches and moves across the region. A wintry mix of
precipitation is expected in many areas before transitioning to
plain rain by mid day Sunday. At this time QPF amounts of three
quarters of an inch to an inch liquid equivalent are expected.

Temperatures will be above normal today expecting highs in the
upper 30s to about 50 degrees with temperatures dropping back
into the upper 20s to mid 30s tonight which will limit
snowmelt. Runoff would result in some river rises and could
cause movement of ice jams. If confidence for flooding increases
then a flood watch and or hydrologic advisory will need to be
issued.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... Winter weather advisory from 1 am to 1 pm est Sunday for
ctz001-013.

Ny... Winter weather advisory from 1 am to 1 pm est Sunday for
nyz032-033-038>043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-066-
082>084.

Ma... Winter weather advisory from 1 am to 1 pm est Sunday for
maz001-025.

Vt... Winter weather advisory from 1 am to 1 pm est Sunday for
vtz013>015.

Synopsis... 11 thompson
near term... Thompson
short term... 11
long term... Kl
aviation... Kl
hydrology... Iaa 11


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TKPN6 31 mi55 min S 1.9 G 4.1 40°F 36°F38°F
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 31 mi85 min 38°F 1021 hPa37°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 93 mi55 min S 4.1 G 5.1 41°F 39°F1020.9 hPa (-0.7)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 94 mi55 min SSW 2.9 G 6 46°F 37°F1020.8 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albany International Airport, NY21 mi64 minNW 14 G 2110.00 miMostly Cloudy46°F35°F66%1022.2 hPa

Wind History from ALB (wind in knots)
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S11S10S6CalmS5S4CalmS5CalmW3NW8NW14
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1 day agoN9N6N5N5N7NE4NE6CalmN4N4NE4N3CalmCalmN3CalmNW3N6CalmCalmCalmCalmS5Calm
2 days agoS14S15
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W18W14NW12W16
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NW8NW7NW8NW7N6N5NW4N5NE8NE7N6N10N6

Tide / Current Tables for New Baltimore, Hudson River, New York
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New Baltimore
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:58 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:00 AM EST     0.62 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:38 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:08 AM EST     5.36 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:58 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:38 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:51 PM EST     0.81 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:37 PM EST     4.26 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.72.61.81.30.90.612.13.54.55.15.45.14.23.22.41.81.10.81.32.33.33.94.2

Tide / Current Tables for Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York
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Castleton-on-Hudson
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:58 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:27 AM EST     0.32 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:38 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:25 AM EST     5.26 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:57 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:38 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:18 PM EST     0.51 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:54 PM EST     4.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.82.81.81.20.80.40.41.32.84.14.85.25.24.43.32.41.81.10.60.71.72.83.64

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.