Sunday, April22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ravena, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 7:47PM Sunday April 22, 2018 5:34 PM EDT (21:34 UTC) Moonrise 11:43AMMoonset 1:50AM Illumination 50% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ravena, NY
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location: 42.45, -73.78     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 222128
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
528 pm edt Sun apr 22 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will bring dry weather and slowly moderating
temperatures through Tuesday. The next chance for widespread
rainfall arrives late Tuesday and continues into Thursday.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
Clear sky, high pressure and subsidence with light winds and a
very dry surface layer will help temperatures to fall to the 20s
to lower 30s.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Wednesday
High pressure builds east and light south winds will occur over
our region Monday and Tuesday, with steadier winds Tuesday. High
clouds will spread into our region Tuesday ahead of the next
system approaching from the west.

The strong april Sun and slowly increasing boundary layer warm
advection will help temperatures to reach well into the 60s
Monday but near 70 southern areas and around 60 northern areas.

With the prospect of some clouds Tuesday afternoon limiting the
sun a little, highs in the mid to upper 60s with around 60 to
lower 60s northern areas.

Increasing warm and moisture advection, isentropic lift and
boundary layer low level jet convergence will support rain
spreading over our region late Tuesday afternoon and night,
continuing through Wednesday. Highs Wednesday in the mid to
upper 50s but around 50 northern areas.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
At the start of the extended period Wednesday night, the northeast
will be contending with widespread showers thanks to warm air
advection ahead of an approaching weak shortwave and associated
surface low paralleling the mid-atlantic coast. During this time, a
strong cut-off alberta clipper looks to eject from the great lakes
and steer our surface low into eastern new england. This interaction
is worth monitoring as that will determine where the triple point of
our surface low travels and thus areas of steadiest rainfall. While
there are slight difference among the latest 12z guidance, the
consensus is that the triple point remains mainly south and east of
the capital district which would keep the low's warm sector mainly
south and east of our cwa.

By 12z Thursday, the initial surface low quickly exits into northern
new england but the cut off alberta clipper remains vertically
stacked over western ny. While strong southwest flow ahead of the
cut off looks to bring a surge of dry air behind the exiting surface
low, we continued chance slight chance pops in the forecast for
Thursday as this cut off low and its wrap around 700mb moisture
progresses eastward into our cwa. Timing its arrival will be
important in determining the pops as a slower solution could be mean
more daytime heating to work with (which the ECMWF shows) which
would increase the threat for isolated scattered showers. A quicker
arrival, as shown in the GFS cmc, would limit the amount of daytime
heating. Given these trends, kept chance pops for the entire daytime
Thursday north west of the capital district but trended down to
slight chance after 18z south east as this area could miss out on
the highest 700mb moisture.

It's worth mentioning that most of the guidance hint at the
potential for a mid level cold pool with this cut off (most
pronounced on the ECMWF with a pocket of -2c to -3c isotherms
at 850mb over the adirondacks) which could influence mid-level
lapse rates and boundary layer mixing potential. Despite the
uncertainty with pops, kept high temperatures similar to
Wednesday only reaching the mid-upper 50s (below normal for late
april) due to cloud coverage and west-northwest flow.

The cut off exits Thursday night with high pressure briefing
building in for Friday. With a deepening longwave trough in the
mississippi valley leading to strong southwest flow from the gulf of
mexico surging into the northeast, temperatures Friday should rise
to and could even exceed normal, reaching well into the 60s.

Uncertainty increase for the weekend as multiple shortwaves round
the base of the aforementioned longwave trough. There are
considerable model differences in the strength and timing of these
shortwaves with GFS and cmc showing a more pessimistic solution. One
thing we can note is that most of the guidance does suggest a return
to cooler than normal temperatures for the second half of the
weekend.

Aviation 22z Sunday through Friday
High pressure and a dry air mass will remain in control, with
clear skies continuing through the 24 hour TAF period ending 18z
Monday.

Winds will be north-northwest around 10 kt with occasional gusts
near 20 kt through the daylight hours today. Winds tonight will
become light and variable.

Outlook...

Monday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Tuesday: high operational impact. No sig wx.

Tuesday night: high operational impact. Likely ra.

Wednesday: high operational impact. Definite ra.

Wednesday night: moderate operational impact. Likely shra.

Thursday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Thursday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra.

Friday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Fire weather
High pressure will bring dry weather and slowly moderating
temperatures through Tuesday. The next chance for widespread
rainfall arrives late Tuesday and continues into Thursday.

Relative humidity values will drop to 15 to 30 percent Monday
afternoon and 25 to 40 percent Tuesday afternoon. Rh values will
recover to 70 to 100 percent Monday night.

North to northwest winds around 15 mph will become variable at
less than 15 mph tonight. Winds become south at 15 mph or less
Monday and Monday night, increasing to 15 mph with gusts
possibly to 20 mph Tuesday afternoon.

Hydrology
Rivers and streams continue to slowly recede from heavier
rainfall earlier this week.

Dry weather is expected today through Tuesday with a moderating
trend in temperatures which will allow for some snowmelt in the
mountains. There will be some evaporation of the snow pack and
snow melt through Tuesday afternoon due to the the very dry
atmosphere and strong daytime april sunshine. So, not all the
snow melt will run off into area rivers through Tuesday
afternoon because of the evaporation. The next chance for
widespread precipitation mainly in the form of rain will arrive
late Tuesday and continue into Thursday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Nas
near term... Nas
short term... Nas
long term... Speciale
aviation... Jpv
fire weather... Nas
hydrology... Nas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TKPN6 31 mi46 min NNW 7 G 13 61°F 46°F14°F
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 31 mi64 min 65°F 1026 hPa18°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 93 mi46 min S 5.1 G 7 54°F 51°F1026.9 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 94 mi52 min S 8.9 G 12 58°F 44°F1026.1 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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N17
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N9
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albany International Airport, NY21 mi43 minN 710.00 miFair64°F8°F11%1026.6 hPa

Wind History from ALB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW15
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W11W8W9NW8NW5NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN43Calm3N8
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1 day agoW17
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NW16W10W8W9W8NW10NW14NW12NW10NW5W7NW6W7NW6NW9NW8W14
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2 days agoW18
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W11NW10NW104W10NW13
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G27
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G24

Tide / Current Tables for New Baltimore, Hudson River, New York
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New Baltimore
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:18 AM EDT     0.93 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:21 AM EDT     5.68 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:06 PM EDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:46 PM EDT     First Quarter
Sun -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:01 PM EDT     4.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.42.41.81.411.12.13.44.65.35.75.54.83.62.721.30.81.12.13.244.54.7

Tide / Current Tables for Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York
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Castleton-on-Hudson
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:45 AM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:38 AM EDT     5.58 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:42 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:33 PM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:46 PM EDT     First Quarter
Sun -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:18 PM EDT     4.57 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.62.51.81.30.80.71.32.74.155.55.54.93.82.721.30.60.61.42.63.64.24.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.