Wednesday, June20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ravena, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:15AMSunset 8:38PM Wednesday June 20, 2018 9:37 AM EDT (13:37 UTC) Moonrise 1:06PMMoonset 1:12AM Illumination 46% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ravena, NY
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location: 42.45, -73.78     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 201059
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
659 am edt Wed jun 20 2018

Synopsis
Temperatures will remain seasonable for the remainder of the
week with mainly comfortable humidity. A fast-moving disturbance
may result in a period of rain showers tonight for portions of
the eastern catskills, mid hudson valley, and northwestern
connecticut. There is potential for periods of wet weather
across the forecast area on the weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 630 am, added patchy fog to portions of the southern
adirondack and valleys north of the capital district as
indicated by webcams and early visible imagery. Remainder of the
forecast remains largely unchanged, aside from some minor
retooling of the sky grids. Cirrus now over our southern tier of
counties, and is poised to increase across the rest of eastern
new york and western new england through the morning hours.

Previous discussion...

northwesterly midlevel flow locally will become more zonal today
as some shortwave energy propagates through the mean eastern
canada trough, acting to sharpen it. In concert with this, some
weak, low-amplitude energy is forecast to eject out of the upper
midwest and be absorbed into the faster westerly flow. This
second disturbance is not readily evident in water vapor at this
hour.

At the surface, a zonally oriented front is strung out roughly
along the mason-dixon line. In concert with the midlevel
disturbances, a surface wave is expected to develop along the
front today into tonight. Our forecast area will be on the
cooler stable side of the front today under weak high pressure,
so a tranquil day is expected. High clouds are expected to
gradually expand and thicken through the day, especially south
of i-90. Some uncertainty with high temperatures due to
questions with amount of cloud cover and mixing depth, but
overall, highs should average near normal along and north of
i-90 to a bit below normal to the south due to the increased
cloud cover.

Tonight, area of isentropic lift and 850-700 mb frontogenesis
crosses southern zones in association with the low-level wave.

Still uncertainty with how far north the resultant precipitation
gets, as NAM cross sections indicate steeply sloped moist
isentropes and midlevel dry air hanging tough on the north side
of the boundary. In collaboration with neighboring wfos, will
cap pops at high chance levels over ulster, dutchess, and
litchfield, with slight chance pops for the next tier of
counties north. Most probable timeframe for precip will be
00-09z thu, but could see a few showers sneaking into the
southern zones as early as 21z today. Rather sharp sky cover
gradient tonight with the i-90 corridor and points north mainly
clear to partly cloudy. Lows tonight near seasonable levels.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
Northwesterly midlevel flow returns Thursday Thursday night,
ensuring dry weather and mostly clear skies. Temps Thursday
right around seasonable values again. Thursday is expected to be
a few degrees warmer than Wednesday over southern zones, and a
few degrees cooler over northern zones. We will be under a low-
level cold advection regime, but the strong diurnal heating will
offset this. Still more uncertainty among the guidance with
respect to high temps, but will side with the higher mav MOS as
the strong heating will promote deeper mixing.

High pressure builds in Thursday night which will set the stage
for good radiational cooling conditions. Depending on the
guidance source, the high could shift east late, promoting a
light easterly flow up the mohawk valley which could allow temps
to rise there late. Otherwise, generally opted toward the
cooler end of the guidance.

Upper ridge axis is overhead Friday, giving way to weak height
falls Friday night as cutoff low over the mid-mississippi valley
begins to open up and eject northeastward. Another tranquil day
Friday with a light southerly southeasterly flow around the
retreating high. Temps seasonable again.

Friday night, clouds begin to increase ahead of the
aforementioned low. Could saturate enough to allow light
precipitation to break out late west of the hudson valley, but
still a lot of uncertainty in this scenario. Lows expected to be
several degrees warmer than Thursday night with the advancing
clouds and light southerly flow.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
The first full weekend in the astronomical summer of 2018 continues
to look unsettled.

A low pressure system will be approaching from the lower great lakes
region Saturday morning with a warm front lifting north northeast
from the oh valley and mid atlantic states. An aggressive short-
wave will swing towards the northeast from the oh valley midwest
based on the latest gfs ECMWF cmc and ensembles. Moderate to strong
warm advection is expected ahead of the warm front for showers and
some isolated to scattered thunderstorms with weak elevated
instability implied by the guidance negative showalter stability
indices . Pops were kept in the likely and low categorical range by
sat pm. High temps due to the clouds and the rain cooled air mass
will be below normal with fairly high confidence with lower to mid
70s in the lower elevations and mid 60s to lower 70s over the mtns.

The short-wave trough and sfc low lift north and east towards
northern ny and southeast canada Saturday with showers and a slight
chance of thunderstorms persisting. The better dynamical lift will
likely be north and west of the tri cities, as it will be humid with
lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Sunday-Sunday night... A weak first cold front slips through in the
morning with a wind shift, but a secondary cold front will dip
south southeast from the st lawrence river valley. There could be a
few breaks of sunshine ahead of this boundary with sfc dewpts in the
mid 50s to lower mid 60s as modest amounts of instability maybe
realized with sbcapes in the 500-1000 j kg range with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms possible. The showers and scattered
thunderstorms may be more numerous north of albany. High temps will
be a tad warmer than the previous day with highs in the upper 70s to
lower 80s in many of the valley areas, and mid 60s to mid 70s over
mtns. The front pushes south of the region Sunday night with the
scattered showers and thunderstorms diminishing. Some modest low-
level cold advection occurs across the region with lows in the 50s
to lower 60s.

Monday to Tuesday... An improving trend with the sensible weather is
expected, as the upper trough axis moves across the region on Monday
with a slight to low chance of a showers especially in the morning.

The latest 00z GFS closes the h500 low off near the capital region
and would keep the showers going through the day especially east of
the taconics, as a wave tracks close to the region. We may have to
increase the pops later if this trend comes to fruition. High
pressure builds in Monday night into Tuesday from the great lakes
region with fair, dry and seasonable temps as we head into the mid
week with comfortable humidity levels.

Aviation 12z Wednesday through Sunday
Weak high pressure will build in over the region today. A
disturbance passing of long island tonight will increase clouds
late in the day with some showers or light rain possible for the
mid hudson valley and southwest new england tonight.

Vfr conditions are expected the next 24 hours at
kpou kpsf kalb kgfl ending at 12z thu. The clouds will thicken
and lower a bit at kpou in the late afternoon into the early
evening. Mid level clouds will be around 10 kft agl, some light
rain or showers will scrape kpou tonight, and a prob30 group was
used for a chance of showers with stillVFR conditions between
02z-06z, otherwise, some mid level clouds or cirrus will be
around further north.

The winds will be light to calm early this morning, and then be
from the south to southwest at 4-8 kts in the late morning into
the afternoon, before becoming light to calm again tonight.

Outlook...

Thursday to Friday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Friday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra.

Saturday: high operational impact. Likely shra... Tsra.

Saturday night: high operational impact. Likely shra... Tsra.

Sunday: moderate operational impact. Likely shra... Tsra.

Fire weather
Seasonable temperatures for the remainder of the week with
minimum rh values falling into the 30 to 50 percent range each
day. Light southwesterly winds today will become north-
northwesterly at 6 to 12 mph Thursday, and light south to
southeasterly Friday. Aside from some showers tonight over
portions of ulster, dutchess, and litchfield counties, dry
weather is expected for the remainder of the week.

Hydrology
A dry and seasonable airmass takes hold through the remainder
of the week. Aside from some showers tonight over
portions of ulster, dutchess, and litchfield counties, dry
weather is expected for the remainder of the week. The next
chance for widespread precipitation will be over the weekend.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Thompson
near term... Thompson
short term... Thompson
long term... Wasula
aviation... Wasula
fire weather... Thompson
hydrology... Thompson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TKPN6 31 mi50 min N 2.9 G 5.1 68°F 74°F56°F
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 31 mi68 min 66°F 1013 hPa56°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 93 mi50 min NE 1 G 4.1 67°F 65°F1013.2 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 94 mi56 min NNE 5.1 G 7 68°F 61°F1012.5 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albany International Airport, NY21 mi47 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy69°F55°F61%1013.4 hPa

Wind History from ALB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8W11
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NE75NW7W7NW3NW5N7N5NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoS9S9S9S8S11W11W10W10W5S8S5S4SW7SW5SW4W10W9W11NE8
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2 days ago3CalmCalm6NW8NW8N73CalmSE4SE4S3S3S7S10S9S10S10S11S8S9S8S9S9

Tide / Current Tables for New Baltimore, Hudson River, New York
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New Baltimore
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Wed -- 01:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:39 AM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:52 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 10:41 AM EDT     4.80 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:12 PM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:28 PM EDT     4.66 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.72.82.11.40.70.51.22.43.54.24.74.84.23.12.31.50.6-00.21.22.43.44.14.6

Tide / Current Tables for Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York
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Castleton-on-Hudson
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:06 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:52 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 10:58 AM EDT     4.70 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:05 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:39 PM EDT     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:45 PM EDT     4.56 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.92.92.11.50.70.10.51.72.93.94.54.74.33.32.41.60.7-0.1-0.30.51.82.93.84.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.