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FXUS61 KALY 200255 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1055 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will bring isolated to scattered rain showers to the region overnight. Behind the front, breezy and cool conditions are expected for Saturday with partly sunny conditions and isolated showers. It will remain mostly dry Sunday into Monday with partly sunny skies, but temperatures will continue to be a little below average for late April.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/

UPDATE
As of 1053 PM EDT, KENX radar has scattered showers ahead of the cold front over the western Adirondacks. These will continue to move to the east southeast across the forecast area. Modest low-level convergence and isentropic lift is occurring ahead the cold front. A closed upper-level low is situated over Ontario north of a jet streak across the Midwest.
The best upper-level forcing for ascent is displaced well to the northwest of the Albany CWA across portions of southern Quebec within the poleward exit region of the aforementioned jet.

The isolated to scattered showers are expected to continue through the early morning hours from northwest to southeast across the forecast area. However, ample low- level moisture will support widespread clouds. This thinking is supported by numerous CAMs.

The winds will shift from the south to the southwest or west with the frontal passage at 10 to 15 mph. The widespread cloud coverage will limit cooling with lows expected to be in the mid/upper 30s over the western Dacks to upper 40s across the forecast area.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
On Saturday, sky cover will gradually improve through the morning hours, as the cold front continues to move east.
However, skies won't clear out completely, as the upper level trough and cold pool move overhead. The afternoon will likely see increasing clouds and some isolated showers as the cooling temps aloft and cyclonic flow promote the development of cu/stratocu. While most areas will be dry on Saturday, a few pop-up showers or sprinkles can't be ruled out by Saturday afternoon, especially over northern areas. Some pea size hail will be possible from any shower as a -30C cold pool drifts across the northern part of the area. Temps will be a little below normal thanks to the upper level cold pool in place. With the decent mixing, winds will be gusty and breezy by Saturday afternoon, with some westerly winds gusting up to 30 mph. It will remain a little breezy into Saturday night with some lingering clouds, although it should be dry with no precip across the area.

Dry weather is expected to continue for Sunday into Sunday night. Upper level trough will continue to be located over the Northeastern US, although the core of the cold pool will remain north of the area over Quebec. Another frontal boundary will be passing across the area, with a reinforcing shot of cooler air, but this moisture-starved front won't be producing any precip for our area. As a result, skies will be mostly clear for Sunday into Sunday night, although it will on the cooler side. It will be breezy once again on Sunday, especially during the afternoon and early evening with gusts around 30 mph.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Mainly fair weather is expected for Monday and Tuesday as the forecast area is forecast to be under weak upper ridging.
Temperatures on Monday look to start cold, but rise to near normal. On Tuesday, heights rise and look to be be slightly above normal over the southeastern part of the area by afternoon. Temperatures on Tuesday should be near to slightly above normal depending on sunshine. By Wednesday, the next upper trough starts to cross the region with a strong cold front which will likely bring rain showers to the area. Rain showers could end as snow showers Wednesday night across the high terrain as temperatures are forecast to be well below normal behind the front. Cold weather and some possible mountain snow showers linger into Thursday.

AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Through 00Z/Sunday...A cold front is approaching the TAF sites with broken bands of showers. Expect VFR conditions with cigs 3.5-5 kft AGL to lower to MVFR levels initially at KGFL/KALB between 00Z-03Z/SAT with the showers, and then to expand across to KPSF/KPOU 03Z-06Z/SAT. Widespread MVFR conditions with cigs 1.5-3.0 kft AGL will continue until 11Z-13Z/SAT, when cigs will rise to VFR levels. We did not include IFR cigs at KPSF/KPOU at this time due to low confidence. Some showers may linger south of KALB after 06Z/SAT.

The upper level trough with bring stratocu/cumulus and some mid level clouds in the late morning into the afternoon with the lower bases in the 5-6 kft AGL range. Some isolated to scattered showers are possible too and we included VCSH groups for the possibility especially from KALB/KPSF northward.
However, VFR conditions are expected for the late morning into the afternoon.

Winds will be south to southeast 7-15 KT ahead of the front with some gusts around 25 KT at KALB/KPSF. The winds will shift to the west to southwest in the early morning at 5-10 KT and the increase from the west/northwest at 12-18 KT in the late morning into the afternoon with some gusts 25-30 KT in the afternoon at all the TAF sites.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday to Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

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New Baltimore
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Fri -- 02:03 AM EDT     4.52 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:04 AM EDT     1.25 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:15 PM EDT     4.96 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
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Castleton-on-Hudson
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Fri -- 02:20 AM EDT     4.42 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:31 AM EDT     0.95 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:32 PM EDT     4.86 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:36 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:03 PM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
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Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

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