Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ithaca, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 8:03PM Friday August 18, 2017 12:10 PM EDT (16:10 UTC) Moonrise 1:41AMMoonset 4:45PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1039 Am Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
This afternoon..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers in the morning...then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening... Then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Mainly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mainly clear...then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day...then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms Tuesday night. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 47 degrees.
LOZ044 Expires:201708182115;;574719 FZUS51 KBUF 181439 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1039 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-182115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ithaca, NY
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location: 42.45, -76.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 181500
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
1100 am edt Fri aug 18 2017

Synopsis
Conditions will remain humid with showers and scattered
thunderstorms through this evening. Locally heavy rain is
possible especially in northeast pa and a few storms may
produce hail and gusty winds this afternoon and evening.

Cooler, but still somewhat unsettled weather continues on
Saturday with a return to fair and warmer weather for Sunday
and Monday.

Near term through tonight
A very moist atmosphere covers northeast pa and much of central
ny late this morning with dew points ranging from the upper 60s
to the mid 70s. Latest SPC meso-analysis showing an axis of 2.0
inch precipitable water values extending northeast across
northeast pa, with values falling off to around 1.2 inches over
far western ny. The 12z buf sounding shows a much dryer
atmosphere over western ny with some capping advancing slowly
eastward toward central ny. A mid-to-upper level trough is
advancing east from the great lakes but the bulk of this system
is forecast to lift north of our area this afternoon with
minimal height falls across our area.

Persistent but broken band of showers from central pa northeast
toward the catskills is forecast to push slowly east through
this afternoon with highest rain chances for our area over
northeast pa into sullivan county ny. A little clearing can be
seen over southern pa and this may work into northeast pa this
afternoon which would enhnace the convective potential. Mlcape
values would likely climb to near or just above 1000 j kg with
any clearing in that area, and with mid-level flow forecast
around 40 kts the shear CAPE combination will be enough for a
slight risk of severe weather with rotating storms a possibility.

Again this is dependent on getting some clearing and
instability. Localized heavy rain will also be a concern with
very moist profiles. Farther northwest some clearing is likely
this afternoon from the finger lakes to mohawk valley but the
very dry airmass moving in from western ny should act to inhibit
convective chances. Expecting scattered showers and storms to
develop after 2 pm but the severe risk for upstate ny looks
rather low. Previous forecast is below.

Water vapor channels on the goes-16 show deep moisture
advecting northeast into ny and pa in advance of a well defined
upper level wave in the upper great lakes region. Also in
advance of this wave was a strong low-level jet seen in the vwp
winds around 1 km above ground level of at least 40 knots from
the southwest. Model guidance was picking up on this belt of
low-level winds which were rising isentropically and advecting
moisture into the local area. This also was destabilizating the
atmosphere and leading to convection which was moving across
central ny and northeast pa at this time. This first batch of
showers and isolated storms was well handled by the latest hrrr
run. There was also another batch of showers in southwest pa
that the hrrr brings northeast into northeast pa and parts of
central ny between 10z and 17z. So weighted pops based on hrrr
reflectivity fields. Then after 17z, models show the layer of
deeper moisture tracking quickly east of central ny and by 00z
southeast of northeast pa. Best chance for additional showers
and storms will be in this deep moist layer in northeast
pa sullivan co. Ny where precipitable waters were around 2.00
inches. The forcing for ascent in this moist layer was not that
impressive but enough for activity to form. For now, have added
chance for locally heavy rain in northeast pa-sullivan ny.

Concus with marginal risk for flash flooding from the wpc
outlook. Will update hazardous weather outlook and mention
enhance wording for the chances of flooding in these areas.

The rest of the forecast area this afternoon will be under very
dry layer aloft as seen in the low-mid and high level water
vapor channels and without sufficient forcing initially,
parcels will just entrain out despite large projected mixed
layer capes. Some isolated to scattered showers and marginal
storms could form but best chance for any oragnized storm
activity will come around 22z-02z or so when a cold front
presses east with the advancing upper level wave from the great
lakes. But, at this time capes will be dropping. Shear values
were fairly impressive with the 0-6 km values around 35-40
knots. NAM 3km does have a line of storms forming around 00z or
so. So we will continue to mention chance for severe
thunderstorms in hwo and concur with SPC marginal risk for
severe.

For later tonight, convection passes east and some lingering showers
remain.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night
For Saturday into Saturday night, isolated to scattered showers and
storms will continue as the cold core upper level trough works
across ny and pa. Best shot for activity will be in our central
and northern counties where there was more instability
projected as it was colder aloft.

Then for Sunday and Sunday night, high pressure and subsidence
settles in with fair weather and slightly above normal temperatures.

Long term Monday through Thursday
345 am update...

for the most part, the current extended forecast looked good.

Latest model consensus between the ECMWF and canadian nh seems
to be holding back on impacts from cold frontal passage
mentioned below for Tuesday-Wednesday. GFS is the only model at
this time to have QPF in the area by 00z. Backed off a little on
the pops into Tuesday night, but with uncertainty in timing and
effect at this range could not justify a completely dry
forecast for Tuesday. Rest of pattern looks similar, especially
with the more refreshing air by this time next week.

Previous discussion...

the long-range period will start out dry and seasonably warm on
Monday with highs from the upper 70s to mid 80s. High pressure
will drift off the east coast on Tuesday as a cold front
associated with a digging short wave moving southeast from the
great lakes approaches the area. That will set the stage for
rather warm and humid weather on Tuesday with temperatures
mainly in the 80s. The cold front will pass across the area late
Tuesday through Wednesday along with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Cooler and dryer weather will return later
Wednesday through the second half of next week.

Aviation 15z Friday through Tuesday
Flight conditions highly variable this morning as showers move
periodically through the forecast area. Ceilings bouncing all
over the place, but for the most part it will remainVFR-MVFR
across the north half, while general MVFR dominates in southern
areas. Main wave train of upper waves driving these conditions
exits east by midday with drier air expected later today and
tonight for generallyVFR. Renewed convective activty this
afternoon evening may affect mostly kavp with several rounds hours
of thunderstorms and poor flight conditions. Drier air works in
tonight, clearing out the deep moisture and low ceilings... However,
with ground based moisture, flight restrictions in fog and low
ceilings may develop after 06z.

Winds becoming southwest around 10 kts by midday, followed by
more westerly directions late this afternoon, then light and
variable tonight.

Outlook...

Friday overnight...VFR.

Saturday...VFR. Chance of flight impacts in afternoon showers.

Sunday through Monday...VFR.

Tuesday... Flight impacts possible in thunderstorms.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Djn
near term... Djn mse
short term... Djn
long term... Jab mse
aviation... Jab


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 70 mi41 min W 11 G 13 78°F 1007.1 hPa70°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 81 mi71 min SW 7 G 12 80°F 1008.1 hPa (-0.4)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 82 mi41 min 82°F 1007.2 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ithaca, Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport, NY3 mi75 minS 710.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F73°F94%1009.3 hPa

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Last 24hrS7S64S7SE7S7SE4SE8SE8SE8S8SE11S9S10S9SE8S10S9S7S6S9S6S7S7
1 day agoNW10NW10NW7NW9NW9NW7N6N4NE3NE4SE3SE3E4E3E4E5E4E4E4E4E4SE4SE6S6
2 days agoSW8SW7W44N6W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmNE3CalmNE3E3CalmNW5NW6NW8W9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.