Thursday, July19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Joseph, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:30AMSunset 8:25PM Thursday July 19, 2018 1:06 AM CDT (06:06 UTC) Moonrise 1:02PMMoonset 12:07AM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ878 Lake Michigan From Michigan City In To St. Joseph Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Port Washington To North Point Light Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From North Point Light To Wind Point Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wilmette Harbor Il To Michigan City In 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Whitehall To Pentwater Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Holland To Grand Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From South Haven To Holland Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From St. Joseph To South Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 813 Pm Cdt Wed Jul 18 2018 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi South...
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt veering to southeast. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt by late morning. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt by late evening. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely overnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Friday..Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Friday night..Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt becoming north. Chance of showers. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Saturday..North winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Chance of showers. Waves building to 3 to 5 ft.
Saturday night..North winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers. Waves building to 3 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Sunday..North winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northeast. Chance of showers. Waves 3 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming north. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
LMZ878 Expires:201807190930;;692770 FZUS63 KLOT 190113 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 813 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure of 30.1 inches centered over the Great Lakes will move to New England by Thursday. Low pressure of 29.7 inches over the northern Plains will deepen to 29.5 inches as it slowly tracks to the Upper Mississippi Valley Thursday night. This low will reach southern Lake Michigan by Friday night, then slowly move southeast to the Ohio Valley through the weekend. LMZ080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-190930-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Joseph, MI
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location: 42.45, -86.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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Fxus63 kiwx 190500
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
100 am edt Thu jul 19 2018

Synopsis
Issued at 300 pm edt Wed jul 18 2018
high pressure will provide fair weather and low humidity through
Thursday. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s with afternoon
highs tomorrow in the mid 80s. A low pressure system will then
move into the great lakes region Friday and stall this weekend
with periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Short term (this evening through Thursday)
issued at 300 pm edt Wed jul 18 2018
midlevel ava and associated subsidence will remain anchored over
the great lakes through tomorrow. Ridge axis does pass our
longitude during the day tomorrow and will allow for some minor
waa with increasingly southerly flow. This will allow us to tack
on a few extra degrees with highs approaching the mid 80s under
partly cloudy skies. Overnight lows similar to last
night... Perhaps a few degrees warmer in spots due to slightly
warmer profiles.

Long term (Thursday night through Wednesday)
issued at 300 pm edt Wed jul 18 2018
situation changes substantially Thursday night as lead theta-e ridge
arrives from approaching closed midlevel circulation on cyclonically
sheared side of seasonably strong upper level jet. This jet will
continue to dig south through the weekend and become increasingly
cutoff from main westerlies along us canada border... Leaving our cwa
in a region of persistent low midlevel cyclonic flow with periodic
showers and possibly a few storms.

Precip chances begin Thu night though will still be a very dry and
stable airmass in place... With relatively weak LLJ moisture
convergence in all but our far W SW CWA late. Chances increase
during the day Fri with some diurnal instability contribution and
approach of midlevel vort lobe. Latest 12z ECMWF has trended toward
the NAM and GFS of a further south track... So trended the forecast
in that direction. Likely pops easily warranted given cva forcing
and decent moisture instability... Though widespread model QPF may
still be a bit overdone. Exact northward extent of main instability
plume still a bit uncertain... But a few strong storms possible in
our far S SW based on current low track timing.

A more stable scenario over the weekend as vertically stacked low
wobbles near just south of cwa. Not expecting any severe weather but
enough low level moisture and daytime heating to support a diurnal
component to highest pops. Best chances currently appear to be sat
as low pressure drifts SE of area on sun. Chances linger over SE on
Monday but should start to see some gradual clearing as upper low
slowly dissipates.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1255 am edt Thu jul 19 2018
return flow will increase today as a surface high pressure area to
the east of the region continues to retreat to the east. The
gradient should tighten as the next system approaches causing
winds to increase to around 10 knots later today. Have kept
thunder out for now, although a stray storm is possible late in
the TAF period.

Iwx watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Mi... None.

Oh... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Agd
short term... Agd
long term... Agd
aviation... Skipper
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 16 mi76 min ENE 5.8 G 5.8 71°F 73°F1 ft1017.5 hPa (+0.0)61°F
45168 32 mi26 min E 3.9 G 3.9 61°F 59°F1 ft1017.7 hPa54°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 34 mi66 min E 1.9 G 6 66°F 1018.3 hPa (-0.0)
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 34 mi36 min ENE 2.9 G 4.1 65°F
45026 - St. Joseph, MI 36 mi26 min E 3.9 G 5.8 65°F 61°F1 ft1017.5 hPa54°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 44 mi36 min E 5.1 G 7 65°F 1017.1 hPa60°F
45174 44 mi26 min E 5.8 G 5.8 72°F 73°F1 ft58°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 47 mi26 min ESE 5.1 G 6 71°F
45029 47 mi26 min E 1.9 G 1.9 59°F 56°F1 ft1017.7 hPa52°F
45170 48 mi26 min E 1.9 G 3.9 66°F 67°F1 ft59°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 48 mi66 min SE 5.1 G 5.1 70°F 1017.6 hPa (+0.3)
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 50 mi36 min E 8 G 8.9 72°F 58°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI34 mi73 minN 010.00 miFair60°F55°F86%1017.4 hPa

Wind History from BEH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5NE3CalmCalmCalmNE3E5NE55565N8466N55NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmNW345NW3CalmNE63N6666NW9
G16
5NW7N7N7N734N34CalmNE3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SW3W3SW4W8W7NW6W6W10NW636N643CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.