Tuesday, October16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Joseph, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 6:08PM Tuesday October 16, 2018 7:30 PM CDT (00:30 UTC) Moonrise 2:10PMMoonset 11:49PM Illumination 50% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ878 Lake Michigan From Michigan City In To St. Joseph Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Port Washington To North Point Light Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From North Point Light To Wind Point Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wilmette Harbor Il To Michigan City In 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Whitehall To Pentwater Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Holland To Grand Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From South Haven To Holland Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From St. Joseph To South Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 856 Am Cdt Wed Sep 19 2018 Sheboygan Wi To Pentwater Mi South...
Rest of today..Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..East winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southeast. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely overnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 3 to 5 ft.
Thursday night..South winds to 30 kt becoming southwest. A few gale force gusts to 35kt possible. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft building to 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft.
Friday..West winds to 30 kt becoming northwest. Gales to 35 kt possible. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Friday night..North winds to 30 kt becoming northeast 10 to 20 kt. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southeast 5 to 10 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
LMZ878 Expires:201809192030;;883158 FZUS63 KLOT 191356 GLFLM OPEN LAKE FORECAST for Lake Michigan National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 856 AM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON Lake Michigan. Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure of 30.1 inches over Ontario and the northern Great Lakes will gradually shift northeast tonight. Low pressure of 29.5 inches will develop over the Central Plains tonight and then lift northeast to the Upper Mississippi Valley Thursday evening. The low will track across the Upper Great Lakes Thursday night while dragging a strong cold front across the lake. High pressure of 30.4 inches will spread across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes Region Saturday. LMZ080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-192030-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Joseph, MI
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location: 42.45, -86.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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Fxus63 kiwx 170028
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
828 pm edt Tue oct 16 2018

Synopsis
Issued at 313 pm edt Tue oct 16 2018
a weak cold front will drop south tonight and bring cooler
temperatures Wednesday with highs mainly in the 40s. Frost and
freezing temperatures are expected again late Wednesday night and
early Thursday. The cool pattern will continue through the
upcoming weekend with a small chance for lake effect rain and snow
showers.

Update
Issued at 805 pm edt Tue oct 16 2018
gustiness has shown a sharp drop off over the past few hours with
some boundary decoupling beginning. Moderate pre-frontal gradient
will allow winds to remain in the 10 to 15 mph range through much
of the night. Sfc cold front draped from east central wisconsin to
eastern iowa will reach far northern indiana after 08z. Main
question will be potential of any isolated showers with this front
overnight into Tuesday morning. Moisture depths are somewhat
lacking for more notable rain shower chances, although after 09z,
mid upper level forcing will be on the upswing as strong vort max
associated with next southeast diving southern canadian upper jet
streak impinges on the southern great lakes. While confidence
remains on the low side, will maintain isolated shower mention
late overnight Wednesday morning. Lows should remain in the upper
30s to lower 40s with moderate gradient preventing optimal
radiational losses.

Short term (this evening through Wednesday)
issued at 313 pm edt Tue oct 16 2018
after a chilly start to the day, moderating temperatures have
managed to reach into the lower to mid 50s areawide. Breezy
conditions across northern indiana, lower michigan, and northwest
ohio, will continue until until sunset before dropping into the
10 to 15 mph range.

A trough sweeping across ontario will send a cold front across
the western great lakes tonight. This initial push of the front
will generally shift winds more out of a west-northwest direction
and provide increased cloud cover. This will help to keep
overnight temperatures warmer compared to this morning. With the
winds staying around 10kt and the increased cloud cover limiting
cooling potential, frost potential is negligible.

A secondary surge of cold air arrives Wednesday morning to
prevent much of a warmup. Did insert mention of isolated showers
primarily for locations north of i-80 given ample moisture plume
from lake michigan and steep low level lapse rates. Drier
conditions build in during the afternoon hours as surface high
pressure builds from the west.

Long term (Wednesday night through Tuesday)
issued at 313 pm edt Tue oct 16 2018
slow eastward propagating high pressure expected Wednesday night
through Thursday. Light winds, and mostly clear skies will allow
for another morning of near freezing temperatures early Thursday
morning.

High pressure ejects east of the region on Friday as the next
trough quickly moves across the northern great plains. This trough
brings a round of showers to the western great lakes Friday
evening. This initial trough is quickly followed by a compact low
from alberta Saturday night. This low will bring another strong
cold front across the western great lakes Saturday night into
Sunday morning. Model soundings show potential for rain and snow
showers Saturday night into Sunday. Orientation of winds aloft to
lake michigan and enhanced low level lapse rates would point to
lake effect potential. One word of caution concerning frozen
precip potential is a warming trend of mid and low levels with
time seen in recent model runs. If this trend holds true then
saturation would occur outside of the dgz.

Precip clears the area Sunday afternoon as another surface high
builds in from the west. This high quickly traverses eastward as
another trough (and associated surface cold surge) drops out of
manitoba and across north dakota and minnesota, and brings cooler
conditions for early next week.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 805 pm edt Tue oct 16 2018
primarilyVFR conditions are anticipated through this forecast
valid period. Stronger gusts have diminished early this evening
with some decoupling beginning across northern indiana. A
moderate sfc pressure gradient will remain in place overnight that
should support pre-frontal west-southwest winds of 10 to 15
knots. Winds to shift west-northwest early Wednesday morning with
relatively deep post-frontal mixing to around 5000 ft supporting
daytime wind gusts to around 25 knots. Low chances of an isolated
shower should remain primarily east and north of ksbn late
overnight Wednesday morning coincident with stronger upper forcing
clipping southern great lakes. Some guidance also hints at very
brief window of some llws concerns at kfwa in the 03z-06z
timeframe, but given brief, marginal nature and low confidence in
meeting criteria, will hold off on mention with the 00z tafs.

Iwx watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Mi... None.

Oh... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Thursday for lmz043-046.

Update... Marsili
synopsis... Cm
short term... Cm
long term... Cm
\aviation... Marsili
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 16 mi40 min W 21 G 23 58°F 59°F5 ft1014.8 hPa (+0.5)40°F
45168 32 mi20 min NW 21 G 27 58°F 60°F5 ft1015.6 hPa42°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 34 mi30 min SW 23 G 28 57°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 34 mi30 min SW 25 G 31 58°F 1015.6 hPa (+0.0)
45026 - St. Joseph, MI 36 mi10 min WNW 19 G 23 57°F 59°F4 ft1016.7 hPa41°F
45174 44 mi20 min WSW 12 G 18 57°F 58°F1 ft41°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 44 mi30 min SW 22 G 27 57°F 56°F1013.9 hPa (+0.0)41°F
45187 45 mi30 min 55°F 53°F1 ft
45186 46 mi30 min W 7.8 55°F 55°F1 ft
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 47 mi50 min W 8.9 G 15 56°F
45029 47 mi10 min WNW 18 G 23 58°F 58°F7 ft1014.5 hPa42°F
45170 48 mi20 min WSW 18 G 23 55°F 59°F5 ft40°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 48 mi30 min WSW 7 G 11 55°F 1015.2 hPa (+1.0)
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 50 mi30 min SW 16 G 21 58°F 34°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI34 mi37 minWSW 15 G 2410.00 miFair55°F34°F45%1016.1 hPa

Wind History from BEH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10W11W11NW7
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W6W10W12S7S6S9S8SW14
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1 day ago--Calm--NW5NW6W4W6W6NW11
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2 days agoS5S6S4S5S6S5S6S5CalmCalmSE5SE4SE3SE4S6SE5S7S10
G18
5S43NW4--Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.