Sunday, May20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Village of Grosse Pointe Shores, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 8:53PM Sunday May 20, 2018 1:51 PM EDT (17:51 UTC) Moonrise 10:18AMMoonset 12:15AM Illumination 33% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ422 558 Pm Edt Sat May 19 2018
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters... The areas affected include... NEarshore and open waters from port sanilac to port huron mi... St. Clair river... At 556 pm edt...doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms located along a line from near lakeport to 11 nm west of st. Clair...moving northeast at 20 knots. The activity will be capable of wind gusts near 30 knots and heavy rainfall. Strong Thunderstorms will affect southern lake huron north of port huron and the st clair river north of marine city up to port huron between 615 and 700 pm. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4296 8242 4299 8242 4280 8247 4276 8247 4272 8248 4270 8249 4270 8250 4281 8249 4283 8249 4284 8247 4290 8247 4300 8242 4297 8241
LCZ422 Expires:201805192300;;218715 FZUS73 KDTX 192158 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 558 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2018 LCZ422-LHZ443-464-192300-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Village of Grosse Pointe Shores, MI
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location: 42.46, -82.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 201717
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
117 pm edt Sun may 20 2018

Aviation
Persistent MVFR clouds will maintain through the balance of the
afternoon. The near surface layers will slowly dry from north to
south late this afternoon into the evening hours - lifting and
breaking ceilings somewhat. The greatest thinning of clouds will be
observed at the northern terminals. North flow will veer to
northeast and hold through the night, before becoming more easterly
Monday morning. Ongoing scattered showers will continue to dissipate
as they approach the terminals this afternoon. Will maintain a
vicinity mention for the first few hours. An area of light rain is
expected to advance northeast across southeast michigan starting mid-
morning Monday. There will likely be a break in the rainfall during
the late afternoon.

For dtw... Ceilings will remain below 5kft through the afternoon into
the early evening. Ceilings may dip below 5kft once again toward
midday Monday into Monday afternoon.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* high for cigs AOB 5000 ft today, medium this evening and again
Monday midday.

Prev discussion
Issued at 953 am edt Sun may 20 2018
update...

as of 950 am edt... Continue to monitor upstream showers coming off
lake michigan into western lower michigan early this morning, aided
by an embedded shortwave ejecting out of illinois wisconsin and
remnant midlevel post-frontal forcing behind the cold front that
exited last night. Observed 12z kdtx sounding revealed some drying in
the midlevels, but still enough ample moisture that this shower
activity should continue to make eastward progress into southeast
michigan, albeit mainly west of us 23 i-75. This solution is favored
by much of the hi- res guidance, including consensus blends as well,
so have reintroduced slight chance chance pops into the areas
mentioned above for light shower potential late this morning and into
the first half of the afternoon.

The sounding also revealed a sharp low-level capping inversion, with
plenty of remnant boundary layer moisture trapped beneath. Coupled
with cooler air filtering in from the north, low stratus will
continue to entrench much of southeast michigan through the remainder
of the day. Despite diurnal heating lifting the cloud deck slightly
as the day progresses, temperatures will have a hard time
responding, only warming into the 60s for inland areas and 50s along
the lake huron coastline. If some more persistent breaks in cloud
cover occur late this afternoon, some inland locations will have a
shot at 70 degrees.

Prev discussion...

issued at 302 am edt Sun may 20 2018
discussion...

an elongated region of sfc high pressure will expand from northern
minnesota lake superior this morning into northern lower mi this
afternoon within mid level confluent flow across the northern lakes.

There has already been a push of shallow cool air across SE mi
within the low level north-northwest flow preceding the sfc ridge
axis. This shallow cool layer has led to a deepening low level
inversion, supporting ample low clouds and fairly widespread
drizzle. Persistent low level northerly flow this morning will
advect drier boundary layer across SE mi, this will end the drizzle
from north to south across the area during the early morning hours.

The cluster of showers thunderstorms across SW wisconsin overnight
have struggled to to make much progress to the east. There will be a
push of lower mid level theta E air across SRN mi from the north
today which will hold any semblance of elevated instability well to
the south and west of the area. There will also be subtle mid level
height rises across lower mi through the day. These factors will
make it unlikely for ongoing convective activity across SRN wi to
advance into SE mi. While low clouds will tend to diminish from
north to south across the area during the course of the day, the
shallow cool air will limit mixing depths and likely hold afternoon
highs mainly in the 60s, with much cooler readings along the lake
huron shoreline.

The sfc high will build into SE mi tonight. Mid high level clouds
will likely inhibit radiational cooling potential across the
southern half of the forecast area. The likelihood for clearing skies
across the saginaw valley and thumb combined with the dry airmass
will warrant min temps into the low 40s (with some upper 30s
possible across the thumb).

There is a fair amount of model divergence with respect to timing
and amplitude of short wave impulses lifting out of the upper
midwest and traversing SRN mi Monday into Tuesday. This will affect
the strength of mid level southwest flow which in turn will
determine the degree of mid level moisture instability advection
into SE mi. In light of the confluent flow overhead, preference lies
with those solutions which dampen the upper energy more
significantly, thereby only supporting just low chances of
convection (mainly south of m-59). High pressure will strengthen
across the great lakes midweek behind an amplifying mid level trough
over eastern canada, supporting dry conditions across SE mi. Mid
level ridging will then expand across the great lakes toward the end
of the week, leading to a steady warming trend.

Marine...

light winds today as high pressure builds into the area. Light winds
will persist through at least Wednesday, as high pressure more or
less holds over lake huron. Chance of showers and thunderstorms
early next week will be mainly confined to lake st. Clair and lake
erie.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Mann
update... ... .Jvc
discussion... Sc
marine... ... .Sf
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 11 mi52 min N 8 G 11 58°F 1022.4 hPa (+2.1)
AGCM4 13 mi52 min 57°F 1021.8 hPa (+1.8)
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 38 mi52 min 54°F 1022 hPa (+1.8)
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 40 mi52 min N 13 G 15 47°F 1022.1 hPa (+1.8)46°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI14 mi1.9 hrsN 710.00 miOvercast58°F58°F100%1021.4 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI19 mi59 minNNW 310.00 miOvercast62°F53°F73%1021.7 hPa

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4S6S9S8SW12W4SW5NW7W8NW6W5NW8NW5NW6NE11NE6NW4CalmE3N7N8N6N7NW5
1 day agoE10NE10E10NE10E9E10E10NE9NE9E11E10E10E7E10E8E6E7E7SE9SE7SE9SE7S6SE8
2 days agoNE13NE13N10N10N12
G17
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G20
N11N12N11N9N10N10NE8N7N8NE8NE9NE10E9E9E11NE11NE10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.