Thursday, March30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Village of Grosse Pointe Shores, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 7:57PM Thursday March 30, 2017 8:27 PM EDT (00:27 UTC) Moonrise 8:06AMMoonset 10:07PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ422 /o.exp.kdtx.ma.w.0002.000000t0000z-170224t2145z/ 436 Pm Est Fri Feb 24 2017
.the special marine warning will expire at 445 pm est... The affected areas were... St. Clair river... The Thunderstorms have moved out of the warned area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. A severe Thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 pm est for southeastern michigan. Lat...lon 4262 8252 4256 8262 4258 8262 4257 8267 4259 8269 4259 8265 4260 8270 4262 8265 4262 8267 4266 8262 4268 8271 4267 8271 4271 8272 4268 8260 4265 8259 4264 8256 4276 8251 4289 8251 4292 8246 time...mot...loc 2136z 242deg 61kt 4289 8228 4270 8221
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ422 Expires:201702242146;;591600 FZUS73 KDTX 242136 MWSDTX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 436 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2017 LCZ422-242146-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Village of Grosse Pointe Shores, MI
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location: 42.46, -82.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 302255
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
655 pm edt Thu mar 30 2017

Aviation
Two more rounds of showers and possible embedded thunder this
evening as complex upper low wobbles east into the ohio valley
tonight. One area will work through all terminals early in the
forecast 00z-02z and the second lifting into area 04z-05z from
western in. Most likely will see scattered convection develop
between these main areas as well. The net result will be a good
coverage of rain much of the time into 06z.

Thereafter, low level moisture will remain in place north of surface
boundary with a transition to -dz/br in ifr/lifr CIGS overnight into
early Friday morning. Showers will persist at times through Friday
as some form of deformation sets up north of upper low as it wobbles
south of area. Heaviest/more persistent rainfall looks to hold just
south, but showers will likely dot the region most of the day.

Ceilings will slowly improve 15z-18z and beyond as low pressure axis
moves east and low level flow backs to the north (versus current
ene).

For dtw... Showers will effect terminal this evening as two waves of
convection lifts into southeast mi. First wave also promises thunder
in the 00z-01z time frame and second wave later in evening may very
well bring another round of thunder by 03z-04z or so. Ifr CIGS will
trend to lifr overnight in developing -dz/br once showers/tsra wane.

Expect trend back to showery wx on Thursday.

//dtw threshold probabilities...

* high in ceilings below 5000 feet.

* low in cigs/vsbys to fall below 200 ft and/or 1/4sm tonight.

* moderate in thunderstorms affecting terminal 00z-01z and low
with second wave 03z-05z.

Prev discussion
Issued at 322 pm edt Thu mar 30 2017
discussion...

flood watch continues into Friday for detroit metro area/south half
of the cwa.

Looks like a one-two punch of additional rain impacting
southeast michigan, first one (with highest rainfall rates) late
today/early this evening, as main moisture/instability axis lifts
through with pw values around 1.1 inches (per 12z nam) and 850 mb
dew pts up around 10 c, both values pushing toward the daily record
values for the end of march, per sounding climatology page out of
spc. Deep enough warm layer to produce efficient rain producers, as
cold easterly flow at the surface allows for good over-running
isentropic ascent with 850 mb low level jet working through southeast
michigan. Thunderstorms look to be mainly south of i-69 and will
enhance rainfall, but localized nature probably leading to wide
ranging QPF amounts (half an inch to one inch with localized in
excess of 1 inch possible). Small hail possible as one heads toward
the ohio border as cells taps into some of the instability over the
northern ohio valley.

More widespread moderate to briefly heavy rain along/north of i-69,
where rainfall totals this evening/tonight could also reach around 1
inch, but should be able to handle this rain better than urbanized
metro detroit area. None-the-less, standing water and minor/nuisance
flooding in low lying areas a good possibility.

The second round of potentially moderate to heavy rain looks to be
late tonight into tomorrow morning as it appears trowal/deformation
axis will set up along or south of m-59 corridor, as 500 mb low
tracks into ohio valley and the trough axis GOES negative tilt, with
the 12z NAM really bullish, adding another inch of qpf. However, the
main circulation is over southwest missouri, and if the center
tracks closer to the ohio river during the day tomorrow, the bulk of
the rainfall/deformation axis may end up just south of the michigan
border, which is the trend the 12z euro has come in with. Rainfall
potentially holding on into the afternoon hours, but should be
diminishing, with cooler and drier air rushing in Friday
evening/night. Upper level shortwave ridging and at the surface
allowing for a good deal of sunshine on Saturday, which should allow
highs to reach into the lower 50s, right around normal.

An active weather pattern will persist over the CWA through the
extended period. Low pressure repeatedly develops over the central
and southern plains; sending system after system northeastward.

While most of the weekend will have seen dry weather, by Sunday
night the next weather system over the southern plain states will
have pushed into the ohio river valley. Rain is expected to develop
overnight Sunday and linger over the CWA into Tuesday. Another low
moves northeastward on Wednesday and conditions look wet into the
following weekend. As with any extended forecast; the timing is
subject to change. Temperatures are expected to remain mild through
the period.

Marine...

easterly gradient flow will persist this evening in response to the
approach of surface low pressure. A long fetch down lake erie has
allowed wind gusts to push up against gales earlier this afternoon.

The pressure gradient will modestly relax this evening as a surface
trough axis lifts directly northward. This should push greatest
easterly gradient flow to the lake huron basin by this evening.

There remains a high probability that wind gusts will reach 30
knots, with a chance for a brief period of gale force wind gusts
(duration of which should remain less than three hours). The winds
will back toward the northeast tonight into Friday morning before
weakening later in the day Friday as the sfc low exits the region to
the east and weakens.

Hydrology...

flood watch through noon Friday for areas along and south of m-59.

Half an inch to one of rain has fallen today. Two more main rounds
of rain expected, the first one being now through mid evening, with
another half an inch to one inch of rain expected across the
majority of southeast michigan. Standing water and minor/nuisance
flooding in low lying areas a good possibility everywhere.

Scattered thunderstorms south of i-69 potentially enhancing
rainfall and leading to more substantial flooding or urban type
advisory, with isolated totals in excess of 1 inch possible.

The second round of rainfall activity looks to be developing late
tonight into tomorrow morning, either along or south of m-59
corridor. Once again, half an inch to one inch of rain possible,
which will lead to additional flood concerns. It is also possible
this heavier rainfall axis will slip just south of the michigan
border, and allow for a quicker end to the rain during the day.

Bottom-line... Rainfall totals in excess of 2 inches may cause
flooding issues across the detroit metro area, with low level areas
most susceptible.

Dtx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... Flood watch through Friday morning for miz068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Saturday for lhz421-422-441>443.

Lake st clair... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lez444.

Aviation... ..Dg
discussion... Sf/de
marine... ... .Cb
hydrology... .Sf
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 11 mi27 min E 19 G 23 38°F 1008.5 hPa (-2.0)
AGCM4 13 mi39 min 38°F 1007.8 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 38 mi39 min 38°F 1008.7 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 40 mi39 min ESE 12 G 16 37°F 1008.8 hPa36°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI14 mi29 minE 16 G 214.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist38°F38°F100%1008.2 hPa
Detroit, Detroit City Airport, MI19 mi34 minE 13 G 229.00 miLight Rain38°F37°F100%1008.3 hPa

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6NE7NE5N3N5N4NE7E4E10E9E15
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1 day agoN8N6N7N5N4N5CalmCalmN5N3NW3N4N4N5NE6543E7E10S5NE13NE12NE12
2 days agoNE6N7N6E6NE6NE9NE11N10N9N7N10N9N10N12N14N14N13N15N11N13N10N14
G19
N12N9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.