Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Village of Grosse Pointe Shores, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 5:08PM Saturday November 17, 2018 10:23 PM EST (03:23 UTC) Moonrise 2:40PMMoonset 1:09AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ422 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0041.000000t0000z-181017t1615z/ 1145 Am Edt Wed Oct 17 2018
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Harbor beach to port sanilac mi... Lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac 5nm off shore to us/canadian border... Lake huron from port sanilac to port huron 5nm off shore to us/canadian border... Port sanilac to port huron mi... St. Clair river... The showers have moved out of the warned area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters. However, waterspouts will continue to be possible the remainder of the day. Lat...lon 4357 8213 4300 8242 4297 8241 4295 8243 4300 8247 4322 8257 4362 8263 4364 8213 time...mot...loc 1432z 311deg 26kt 4287 8193
LCZ422 Expires:201810171554;;903658 FZUS73 KDTX 171545 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1145 AM EDT WED OCT 17 2018 LCZ422-LHZ442-443-463-464-171554-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Village of Grosse Pointe Shores, MI
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location: 42.46, -82.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 172301
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
601 pm est Sat nov 17 2018

Aviation
Predominant CIGS this evening overnight will range lowerVFR. I-94
corridor will see lowering CIGS early Sunday morning as light snow
in fgen forcing lifts just into the region. It appears MVFR -sn will
persist into late morning before shifting off the the east. Cigs
will edge back up to lowerVFR and even scatter out further north at
kfnt and especially kmbs.

For dtw... Flurries are expected to lift back into terminal with fgen
by 10z-12z W light snow... Vsbys 3-5sm... Persisting Sunday morning.

MVFR CIGS can be expected at that time, but improve back to lower
vfr by midday once the disturbance initiating the fgen forcing
passes.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* high for cigs AOB 5kft.

* high for ptype of sn Sunday morning.

Prev discussion
Issued at 300 pm est Sat nov 17 2018
discussion...

unrelenting pattern characterized by well below normal temperatures
and episodic light snow potential will continue right through the
early week period. An inconsequential area of light snow flurries
ongoing this afternoon will gradually contract in scale across
southern sections as existing forcing wanes with time through early
evening. To the north, recent satellite and radar trends suggest a
window remains for some pockets of light lake effect snow showers to
drift into the saginaw valley and thumb through the evening hours.

Little to no accumulation expected going forward through early
tonight.

Cold frontal boundary sags southward into the ohio valley this
evening, before stalling tonight as the frontal slope becomes
parallel with the mean flow. West to east elongated axis of modest
mid level fgen will emerge along the boundary in the presence of
favorable right entrance region upper jet support during this time.

Slight northward drift of this ascent across the 700-600 mb frontal
slope residing locally will provide a brief window Sunday morning
for light snow to develop across the ohio border region. Both the
placement and magnitude of this forcing still carries some
uncertainty, but areas generally south of the i-94 corridor appear
more favorably positioned now to witness a period of light snow.

Accumulation potential within the one half to one inch range across
portions of lenawee monroe counties, with a much lower likelihood of
seeing any accumulation up into the i-94 corridor. Conditions Sunday
otherwise governed by the presence of weak high pressure, with a
corresponding lack of meaningful thermal advection solidifying yet
another day of well below normal daytime temperatures. Highs mid-
upper 30s.

Additional shortwave energy digging into the existing mean trough
will provide another round of strong height falls for the early week
period. Lead edge of this amplification process will drive a cold
front into the region late Monday into Monday night. Brief pre-
frontal window Monday for modest thermal recovery under developing
low level southwest flow. The temperature response likely muted
though by the high degree of cloud cover, ensuring daytime readings
remain well below average. Increase in low-mid level ascent as the
frontal boundary and shortwave lift through will provide at least a
chance of snow Monday night. Snowfall potential carries strong
reliance on defining the placement of the best mid level dynamics
tied to the main PV feature and attendant upper jet axis, with
current model projections suggesting a greater chance exists over
northern lower mi.

A strengthening thermal trough and persistent cloud cover will bring
colder temperatures to michigan by Tuesday as highs only peak in the
upper 20s to lower 30s followed by lows in the 20s. Flow will turn
more zonal late Tuesday into early Wednesday which will help
moderate temperatures as warmer westerly flow fills in, allowing
highs to peak in the mid to upper-30s as h850 temperatures climb
from an average of -12c to -5c. The back edge of a second thermal
trough will filter in late Wednesday to Thursday and will return
h850 temperatures back down to an average of -13c, once again
capping highs in the low to mid-30s.

Confidence remains high regarding a pattern shift during the late-
half of next week as moves across the plains late Thursday into
Friday and strengthens across northern tx southern ok, strengthening
a ridge across the eastern states. Surface high pressure centered
across the great lakes into ontario will bring extended periods of
sunshine Thursday into Friday and will aid in increasing
temperatures Friday into the weekend as anticyclonic flow takes hold
when the high pressure travels east into new england. The warm-up
will be marked by h850 temperatures increasing to 0-4 c Friday into
the weekend and will translate to daytime highs peaking in the mid-
40s starting Friday. The ECMWF and associated MOS guidance is less
aggressive with WAA next weekend, so opted to not increase highs
into upper-40s per yesterday's discussion.

Negatively-tilted shortwave trough and weak cold front will bring
the chance for precipitation throughout Saturday. If the trough
moves in early enough, a chance to see a wintry mix will be
possible, however, confidence is too low to at this time to discern
precipitation type.

Marine...

a tightening pressure gradient between high pressure and an area of
low pressure tracking across southern hudson bay will lead to gusty
winds over northern and central lake huron Sunday, with gusts of 20-
30 knots common. Moderate southwesterly flow will continue to linger
through the early week period with broad high pressure in place.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Dg
discussion... Mr am
marine... ... .Jvc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 11 mi24 min NE 5.1 G 8 35°F 1027.4 hPa (-0.0)
AGCM4 13 mi36 min 33°F 46°F1026.5 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 38 mi36 min 32°F 1026.4 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 40 mi36 min NW 4.1 G 6 30°F 1026.4 hPa24°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI14 mi29 minN 312.00 miOvercast32°F28°F86%1027.5 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI19 mi31 minENE 410.00 miOvercast34°F25°F70%1027.6 hPa

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6SW9W8W8W12
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W11W9W8NW8NW4NW6NW5NW7NW6NW7NW8N6N7N5N4N4N3NE4N3
1 day agoSW5SW6SW7W8SW7SW9SW11SW12
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2 days agoE5E8E11E10E10E10E9E8E10NE6E9E9SE8E7E9E8E9E8E6E6S3S4S4S4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.