Saturday, December16, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Breedsville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:07AMSunset 5:13PM Saturday December 16, 2017 1:51 PM EST (18:51 UTC) Moonrise 6:23AMMoonset 4:31PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ845 South Haven To Holland Mi- 1001 Am Est Sat Dec 16 2017
Rest of today..South winds 5 to 15 knots backing east late in the day. Cloudy. A slight chance of snow through early afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..East winds 10 to 20 knots. Cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 20 knots veering south late in the day. Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of rain and snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
LMZ845 Expires:201712162215;;980758 FZUS53 KGRR 161501 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1001 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ845-162215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Breedsville, MI
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location: 42.46, -86.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 161741
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
1241 pm est Sat dec 16 2017
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 310 am est Sat dec 16 2017
snow will end this Saturday morning and precipitation is not
expected again until later Sunday mainly south of i-94, most
likely as a mix of rain and snow. After Sunday, precipitation
isn't expected again until the middle of next week. After another
cold day today, Sunday and most of the coming week will have
seasonal temperatures with highs in the 30s.

Update
Issued at 646 am est Sat dec 16 2017
snow is rapidly diminishing as indicated by models. Have made a
few cosmetic updates to the forecast to reflect this. IR satellite
imagery indicates a broad area of cold cloud tops upstream making
it questionable how much the dgz will dry out. I have removed
freezing drizzle due to this uncertainty.

Short term (today through Monday)
issued at 310 am est Sat dec 16 2017
no changes planned to inherited forecast. Surface observations,
local vwps, and radar indicate a convergent frontogenetic pattern
underway centered roughly along i-96 with enhanced fgen
convergence from grand rapids to lake michigan as noted on kgrr
and kbiv observations.

Ir imagery and short range model progs indicate some drying in
the dgz later this morning which should allow snowfall rates
approaching 1 inch per hour to taper off rather quickly. This
rapid dropoff should occur around 7 am, meaning that the current
advisory set to expire at 10 am could possibly be cancelled
early. Would like to get a better feel for travel conditions
before making this decision however. There may be a brief period
of freezing drizzle as deeper moisture peels out, but additional
impact should be negligible with trace accumulations falling on a
substantial snow pack.

Long term (Monday night through Friday)
issued at 310 am est Sat dec 16 2017
a cold front will bring potential for mixed light rain and light
snow showers Monday night into Tuesday that will end as a few light
snow showers and flurries as colder air filters in after fropa. A
high pressure ridge will then gradually build in from the west and
bring fair wx with seasonable temperatures Tuesday night through
Wednesday night.

The wx pattern will become more unsettled again late in the week as
an upper level trough digs and amplifies over the great lakes region
and a low pressure system moves through. Expected again until the
middle of next week. After
there is still a considerable amount of uncertainty in 00z medium
range guidance concerning the eventual track strength timing of that
low pressure system late in the week. However an overall guidance
consensus does show potential for accumulating snowfall Thursday
into Friday particularly over our northern fcst area where thermal
profiles will be colder.

Beyond that medium range guidance consensus suggests that it will
turn colder next weekend as the upper level trough continues to dig
and amplify over the eastern conus. Even colder arctic air may
potentially be on the way. It is noted that the 00z ECMWF suggests
h8 temps could fall to around -25 c by christmas day. That would be
by far the coldest airmass of winter thus far.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 1241 pm est Sat dec 16 2017
stratus clouds with ceilings 1500 to 2500 feet agl will persist
across central lower michigan today withVFR conditions further
south near azo and btl. Expect ifr to develop after 06z with low
clouds and some fog, especially across southern lower michigan.

Some lifr is also expected by 12z with slow improvement by Sunday
afternoon.

Marine
Issued at 310 am est Sat dec 16 2017
current trends and wavewatch3 guidance indicate we can safely
cancel the small craft advisory. Localized strong onshore winds
likely aided by frontogenesis will reverse to light offshore later
this morning as a surface front drops south. This will allow
waves to diminish rather quickly. Waves will ramp up once again
late Monday with strengthening onshore winds.

Hydrology
Issued at 322 pm est Fri dec 15 2017
many rivers have iced over due to the snow and cold temperatures.

The looking glass near eagle has risen above bankfull due to
downstream ice constricting the flow. It is expected to gradually
fall but some fluctuations are still possible. High temperatures
above freezing early next week will soften the ice a bit. Water
frozen in the snowpack ranges from 0.5 to 1 inch in most locations,
but a full snowmelt is not expected anytime soon.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Tjt
synopsis... Tjt
short term... Tjt
long term... Laurens
aviation... Ostuno
hydrology... Cas
marine... Tjt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 9 mi52 min S 11 G 12 37°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 22 mi52 min ENE 12 G 15 1012.7 hPa (+0.4)
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 32 mi52 min SSW 8.9 G 12 39°F 1013.2 hPa (+0.3)
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 54 mi42 min E 17 G 19 28°F 1015.2 hPa22°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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S5
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W11
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W6
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G11
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G21
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G31
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E11
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G15
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NE17
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NE14
G18
NE11
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N11
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NE7
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E3
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S6
G9
S6
G9

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI10 mi57 minSW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy40°F29°F66%1012.9 hPa
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI20 mi59 minE 910.00 miOvercast29°F24°F82%1014.3 hPa

Wind History from LWA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW12
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SW8SW10
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SW8SW7SW10SW10SW9SW5
1 day agoS5S4S3S7S5S5CalmW5W4SW5S6S5S5S4S4S5S6W12
G17
W16
G21
W11
G23
W13
G25
W16
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W19
G24
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G19
2 days agoSE10SE8SE6CalmE6NE5NE7N10
G15
N8N9
G14
N6
G15
N6N5NE6NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4SE5SE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.