Thursday, April27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Breedsville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 8:42PM Thursday April 27, 2017 10:32 PM EDT (02:32 UTC) Moonrise 6:53AMMoonset 9:14PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ845 South Haven To Holland Mi- 942 Pm Edt Thu Apr 27 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 2 am edt Friday...
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots backing northeast late in the day. Mostly cloudy. A chance of light showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday night..North winds 10 to 20 knots. Light showers likely in the evening, then a chance of light showers overnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Cloudy with a chance of light showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
LMZ845 Expires:201704280915;;373350 FZUS53 KGRR 280142 NSHGRR NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 942 PM EDT THU APR 27 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ845-280915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Breedsville, MI
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location: 42.46, -86.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 280021
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
821 pm edt Thu apr 27 2017
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 334 pm edt Thu apr 27 2017
in the grand scheme, the pattern will remain very active. Much
cooler air has settled into the region today with near to below
normal temperatures expected to extend into next week. A brief
period of dry weather is expected this evening through early Friday.

A weaker disturbance passing over indiana will lead to a round of
light rain late Friday into early Saturday. A more vigorous upper
wave over the plains will send copious amounts of moisture northward
into the midwest over the later half of the weekend. Heavy rain is
possible from late Saturday into Monday.

Short term (this evening through Saturday night)
issued at 334 pm edt Thu apr 27 2017
relatively quiet weather is expected tonight into the first half
of Friday. We will see mainly dry conditions with the exception
to a few widely scattered/isolated showers lingering well behind
the upper low, as it rotates north into canada.

Much cooler air continues to work into the area today. A boundary
settles to our south, which stretches through the midwest and
ohio valley for the early portion of the weekend. A weaker
surface low travels along the boundary through indiana late
Friday into Saturday. GFS is a little more spread out on precip
chances with probabilities stretching pretty far north into the
cwa. Higher res guidance, along with the ecm keep much of the
precipitation along and south of i-94. Despite probabilities being
carried through the entire area, the highest likelihood for
rainfall will be through the southern third of the state. Rain
chances should be minimal late Friday night as the wave moves
east and weakens.

The second round of precip comes in late Saturday and marks the
beginning of what could be a very wet period. As the upper level
jet lifts north, surface ridging begins to build over the eastern
conus. An area of overrunning precip is likely to develop as the
exit region of the low level jet approaches. Rainfall could be
heavy at times overnight Saturday with the gulf opening up and
pwats exceeding one inch. A steady, widespread rain (at this
point) could extend into Sunday morning.

Long term (Sunday through Thursday)
issued at 334 pm edt Thu apr 27 2017
the wet scenario continues into the first part of next week. An
upper low near kansas city will continue to pump warm and very moist
air. Meanwhile a front remains stationary near the mi/in border.

Over riding across the front will be persistent and with
precipitable water values holding around 1.5 inches, a steady and
dredging rain seems likely Sunday and Sunday night. Hydro issues
will likely persist into much of the week with 1 to 3 inches of rain
likely by early Monday morning. The surface boundary finally lifts
north on Monday as the low drifts northeast into the NW great lakes.

This should result in lighter and more scattered rains on Monday.

The surface and upper low continues to drift NE into ontario and
quebec by Tuesday. With the troughiness over the great lakes the
light rain should continue into Tuesday, but gradually diminish
through the day.

The upper flow becomes more zonal with high pressure helping to dry
us out. We may see a chance of light rain again by Thursday as low
pressure develops over the SE u.S. And moves northward.

Temps will cool down by Monday and remain chilly into Thursday.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 820 pm edt Thu apr 27 2017
MVFR should persist through the evening with ceilings 1500 to 2500
feet agl. There will be areas of ifr as well, mostly near mkg
early this evening as low clouds and light showers persist near
lake michigan. Conditions will improve toVFR on Friday morning.

Winds will decrease tonight with some gusts over 20 knots early
this evening then southwest winds around 10 knots through Friday
afternoon.

Marine
Issued at 334 pm edt Thu apr 27 2017
the cold front that was responsible for gusty winds through
Thursday morning has pushed east of lake michigan. Though
southwest winds will continue to be up around 25 knots this
afternoon, they will gradually subside as the evening progresses.

Waves of 3-6 feet will be common through the afternoon before
dropping to the 1-3 feet range Friday morning. The small craft
will continue until then.

Hydrology
Issued at 334 pm edt Thu apr 27 2017
all major medium range models continue to indicate a solid swath of
rainfall across our region late this weekend, with 1"-3" or more
expected. The heaviest amounts may fall across the central and
western reaches of the muskegon, grand, and kalamazoo river basins.

We are expecting within bank rises at the least and a possibility of
flood stage being reached at some locations. If 4" or 5" ends up
falling across portions of these basins then a more significant
flood threat would result with even greater impacts.

There is about a 36 hour window when the vast majority of this rain
will fall from Saturday night into Monday morning. Small rivers and
streams may rise abruptly so residents along these types of
waterways should monitor closely throughout the day Sunday and
Monday in particular.

Grr watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Friday for lmz844>849.

Synopsis... Jam
short term... Jam
long term... Jk
aviation... Ostuno
hydrology... Hoving
marine... Jam


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 9 mi33 min WSW 17 G 18 45°F
45168 12 mi33 min WSW 12 G 16 45°F 49°F3 ft1009.9 hPa (+2.5)38°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 22 mi45 min SW 13 G 16 44°F
45029 31 mi33 min WSW 12 G 14 43°F 46°F4 ft1008.9 hPa (+2.1)38°F
45026 - St. Joseph, MI 42 mi33 min WSW 16 G 19 46°F 48°F3 ft1010.4 hPa (+2.8)39°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 54 mi33 min WSW 17 G 19 44°F 1008.2 hPa (+1.6)41°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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E6
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G12
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G21
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G27
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G33
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G42
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E3
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G9
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G12
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G20
SE12
G18
E10
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G19
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SE14
G18
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S6
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E5
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G13
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G14
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G15
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SE7
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G12
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S4
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SW2
NW1
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N2
SE7
G16
SE4
SE3

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI10 mi56 minWSW 1010.00 miOvercast45°F38°F79%1008.5 hPa
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI20 mi40 minWSW 12 G 1910.00 miOvercast45°F37°F77%1008.5 hPa

Wind History from LWA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW4E3CalmSE3CalmSE5S12
G18
S6S14
G18
S19
G31
SW19
G32
SW15
G24
SW16
G26
SW12
G25
W16
G25
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G24
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G21
SW10
G19
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G19
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G16
SW8W8W9
G15
1 day agoE3SE3SE4SE5SE7SE5SE6SE5SE6SE5S9
G14
SE11
G15
S10
G15
S12
G21
S15
G22
S17
G25
W13
G18
W8W6W4W3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSE6SE5SE6SE8SE7SE7SE6SE6SE6SE6SE6S9S10
G14
S7S11
G16
SE7S7
G14
S10SE7
G15
S8SE6SE4E4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.