Wednesday, May22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Winthrop Harbor, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:21AMSunset 8:14PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 6:10 PM CDT (23:10 UTC) Moonrise 11:58PMMoonset 8:30AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 506 Pm Cdt Wed May 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 pm cdt this evening...
Tonight..South wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots late in the evening, then veering southwest after midnight becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Patchy fog through the night. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms through around midnight. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet after midnight.
Thursday..West wind 10 to 15 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday night..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots late in the evening, then veering north after midnight veering northeast early in the morning. Clear through around midnight then becoming partly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots veering southeast in the late morning and early afternoon, then rising to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Chance of showers through the day. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ646 Expires:201905230400;;295995 FZUS53 KMKX 222206 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 506 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-230400-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winthrop Harbor village, IL
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.47, -87.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 klot 221951
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
251 pm cdt Wed may 22 2019

Short term
206 pm cdt
through tonight...

massive long wave trough covering about the western 2 3rd of the
u.S. Has multiple smaller scale circulation pivoting within the
broad upper trough. Pronounced upper low evident on water vapor
imagery is beginning to shear out over the upper mississippi
valley and northern plains early this afternoon. Water vapor
imagery does show jet streak nosing east from the central high
plains to the mid-mississippi valley early this afternoon, which
is resulting in strong kinematic fields for mid-late may over the
region. At the surface, warm and moist air is surging north on
gusty southerly winds across the region with a cold front laid out
from iowa south to southeast kansas.

On goes-16 differential water vapor imagery, there does appear to
be a subtle shortwave trough on the southern periphery of this
jet. Numerical guidance seems to be keying in on this relatively
subtle looking disturbance as the impetus for widespread
convective development, initially over ozarks, then continuing to
develop northeastward ahead of the cold front into northern and
central il this evening. Convective allowing models are
forecasting a fairly high coverage of storms, however, this
activity is progged to be well ahead of the front, so given the
somewhat nebulous forcing could see more discrete or semi-discrete
convection initially before activity likely begins to congeal
into a more linear feature late this evening into the overnight
hours.

There could be a short window early in the event where we could
see a supercellular tornado threat in our southwest CWA before
boundary layer cooling leads to convection becoming rooted above
the boundary layer. However, the greater threat will likely be
from large hail and damaging winds. Given the very strong shear
profiles (0-6k bulk shear values 50-60kt) and mucapes progged to
increase to over 2000 j kg, am quite concerned with the large hail
and damaging wind threat tonight.

While storm motion tonight should be such that there doesn't look
to be a threat for training cells, rap and NAM forecast pwats
approaching the 99th percentile for mid-late may with values
progged to approach 2". In addition, high freezing levels (>13kft)
should allow for deep warm rain processes, meaning storms tonight
could be very efficient rain producers. One and three hour flash
flood guidance is generally between and inch to an inch and half,
which storms tonight potentially reaching those values. Considered
a flash flood watch, particularly for southern and eastern
portions of the area, but given the threat for training not
looking particularly high, opted to hold off for now. Thinking any
flash flood threat tonight will be on the lower end of the
spectrum and fairly localized, with greater chance of urban &
small stream flood advisory type minor flooding.

Convection should begin to weaker overnight as low level jet
veers and atmosphere slowly stabilizes, with storms likely moving
out toward or just past 12z Thursday morning.

- izzi

Long term
250 pm cdt
Thursday through Tuesday...

the theme of the extended will be several days of more
spring early summer-like temperatures, occasional periods of
showers or storms (though not a total wash out), then a return to
seasonal or slightly cooler conditions to wrap up the holiday
weekend.

We should be able to wring out a pretty nice day on Thursday. Most
of the convective activity will be finished by daybreak tomorrow,
possibly a few lingering showers east of the chicago area. In
spite of having a frontal boundary clip the area, fairly warm
airmass will remain in place across the region and we should have
plenty of sunshine. Therefore expect another warm day with
readings in the lower to mid 70s north to low 80s north.

An upper ridge will slide overhead tomorrow night, and this will
shift surface high pressure off to our east. The effective front
will lift back north as a warm front late tonight into Friday.

This will bring convective chances back to the lower great lakes.

The stronger low level jet will focus along the mississippi valley
and points east, but the warm front will not completely clear the
area, some of this activity will sneak into our area, especially
for areas north and west. With the frontal position fairly
close by, there could be at least showers with this initial wave
Friday morning.

The ridge will flatten Friday night into Saturday and place the
effective front, and northern periphery of the ridge, in a more
precarious position for increased shower and thunderstorm
concerns. While it does not appear it will be raining all the
time, those with outdoor plans should keep an eye of the weather
as the airmass will be fairly moist (pwats above 1.5" at times)
and subtle waves can easily produce heavy rainfall and lightning
and may be tough to time, through most of the holiday weekend.

The first period of concern will come late Friday into Saturday
where severe storms may be possible upstream toward the
mississippi river, but could still pose some risk in our area
Friday night. Corfidi vectors suggest some training storms in a
very high pwat airmass again of 2" or more, or near highest values
for late may, will pose a heavy rainfall flooding threat before
the forcing weakens. After this, model placement of the effective
front is a bit more nebulous, but this will play a significant
role in precip chances through the weekend.

It will also remain mild through Saturday, though Sunday model
guidance does shove the front a bit farther south leading to a
likely cooler day Sunday with more of a northerly wind, and cooler
onshore flow at the lakefront also. Challenging to get into
specifics, but this same theme of seasonal temperatures and
chances of storms still hold for memorial day and even into mid
week.

Kmd

Aviation
For the 18z tafs...

gusty south winds are likely through the afternoon with frequent
gusts in the 25-30kt range expected. Magnitude of the gustiness
will probably wane a bit with sunset. Tsra are likely to move and
develop northeastward into western portions of northern il during
the early to mid evening hours, gradually spreading into the
terminals during the mid-late evening. Tsra activity should move
east of the terminals late tonight with winds veering to westerly.

Depending on how widespread the storms are, winds could become
squirrelly both during and following the storms, before returning
to westerly. Should see a return toVFR conditions in the wake of
the storms late tonight and continuingVFR through Thursday.

- izzi

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory... Nearshore waters
until 9 pm Wednesday.

Visit us at http: weather.Gov chicago (all lowercase)
follow us on facebook... Twitter... And youtube at:


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45187 3 mi30 min S 14 G 19 64°F 47°F2 ft
45186 7 mi30 min S 14 G 19 64°F 48°F2 ft
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 8 mi70 min S 14 G 19 72°F 1008.8 hPa (-0.7)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 8 mi30 min SSW 23 G 30 77°F
45174 25 mi30 min S 14 G 19 69°F 3 ft1009.5 hPa53°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 40 mi40 min SSW 25 G 26
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 40 mi30 min SSW 22 G 27
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 44 mi30 min SSE 16 G 18 50°F 39°F1010.7 hPa46°F
CNII2 44 mi25 min S 19 G 23 80°F 48°F
JAKI2 49 mi130 min SSW 12 G 25 82°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
Last
24hr
NE9
G12
E10
G13
E13
G17
E11
G16
E12
G17
E13
G18
E13
G22
S8
G14
--
NE4
E14
G19
SE2
G5
SE7
G10
SE6
G9
S6
G10
S8
G15
S11
G17
S11
G18
S14
G20
S9
G18
S16
G21
S11
G17
S16
G22
S16
G24
1 day
ago
N5
N6
N6
G9
N6
NW2
N5
G8
N8
N8
N4
G7
NE12
G15
NE9
NE8
G11
NE10
E8
G14
E11
G15
E11
G16
NE9
G12
NE10
G14
NE10
G13
NE11
G14
NE12
G15
NE14
G17
E11
G15
NE11
2 days
ago
SW6
G13
W7
G17
W5
G11
SW6
G12
W7
G17
W8
G17
SW7
G18
SW7
G15
W9
G15
W3
G8
W7
G11
W6
G12
W5
G11
W5
G10
W9
G14
W7
G14
NW6
G9
N9
G13
N10
G13
N8
G11
N8
N7
G11
NE7
G11
NE7

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL4 mi15 minSSW 17 G 2710.00 miFair80°F55°F42%1008.4 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI10 mi17 minSSW 18 G 2810.00 miFair and Breezy82°F57°F43%1008.6 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI20 mi17 minSSW 14 G 3010.00 miFair82°F55°F40%1008.8 hPa

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
Last 24hrNE16E17
G30
E16
G23
E11
G21
E12
G23
E13
G21
E11SW13
G29
SE6E7E13
G20
SE10
G16
SE10SE5SE7SE7SE9SE11S10SE11SE10
G20
S13
G33
SW19
G38
SW23
G31
1 day agoE7NE7E5NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmN4NE4NE8NE9E7E11
G17
E10E10E10E6E9E8E10E10E11E11
2 days agoW12
G29
W10
G26
W9
G24
W10
G23
W6
G17
W8
G20
W9
G18
6
G19
6
G16
W5W8
G16
NW7NW10
G24
NW7
G16
NW15
G21
NW9
G17
NW8N6N7N5E8NE9NE6NE9

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (19,4,5,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.