Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Winthrop Harbor, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 7:13PM Monday March 27, 2017 11:29 AM CDT (16:29 UTC) Moonrise 6:39AMMoonset 6:53PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 927 Am Cdt Mon Mar 27 2017
.dense fog advisory in effect until 3 pm cdt this afternoon...
Rest of today..Variable wind around 5 knots becoming northeast wind 5 to 10 knots by late morning. Areas of dense fog. Slight chance of rain. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..North wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Slight chance of rain through around midnight. Patchy fog through the night. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 3 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..North wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Tuesday night..Northeast wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
LMZ646 Expires:201703272000;;160591 FZUS53 KMKX 271427 NSHMKX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 927 AM CDT MON MAR 27 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ646-272000-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winthrop Harbor village, IL
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location: 42.47, -87.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 271302 aaa
afdlot
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service chicago/romeoville, il
802 am cdt Mon mar 27 2017

Update
800 am cdt
residual moisture and nearly calm winds continues to support dense
fog over lake michigan, and per webcam imagery this is along
immediate shoreline locations, including lakeside areas of
chicago. The city of chicago has indicated the stratus cloud is
only about 30 ft off the ground. Webcam imagery has shown a
decline in visibility since daybreak including in far northwest
indiana (michigan city).

Nearly calm synoptic winds will continue this morning and given
the already warmer land temperatures than water, a mesoscale
northeast wind is favored along the lakefront this morning. This
may drag the dense fog inland, likely only less than a mile
inland, but still could have notable impacts. Would expect this to
ease gradually into the afternoon, but may get worse through 10
a.M. Or so.

Have updated the forecast and issued an sps and graphical nowcast
and will continue to monitor closely for an advisory issuance.

Mtf

Short term
243 am cdt
through tonight...

early this morning, foggy conditions are in place as a weak
surface trough moves across the area resulting in weak flow. To
our southwest, water vapor imagery shows an upper low spinning
over eastern ks while a surface low is analyzed over far
southeastern ks. As the low moves east across missouri today, a
col area will move over northern illinois and northwest indiana
resulting in light and variable or calm winds through much of the
morning over the CWA which will delay or slow improvement of
visibility possibly into the afternoon for some areas. This
afternoon, surface low is progged to move east across the mid
mississippi valley into far downstate illinois with a
northeasterly gradient developing over northern illinois. Onshore
flow and fog over lake michigan will suppress temperatures near
the lake front. Expect high temperatures in the mid to upper 50s
with a few spots south of i-80 tagging 60. Near the lake,
temperatures are expected to top out in the mid to upper 40s.

Precipitation out ahead of the low is expected to begin
overspreading the CWA south of i-80 by late morning or early
afternoon, then overspread the i-88 to i-90 corridor mid
afternoon. Models have trended slightly farther south, and it
now appears the northern tier and possibly two tiers of counties
in illinois could stay dry with precipitation most likely across
the south half of the cwa. Very weak instability only clips the
far southern counties in the CWA so have kept thunder mention
along and south of the kankakee river valley.

Deubelbeiss

Long term
243 am cdt
Tuesday through Sunday...

a sprawling area of high pressure will spread south from the
canadian prairies into the upper midwest and western great lakes
region Tuesday and Wednesday bringing dry conditions and some
peeks of sunshine. North to northeast flow and persistent onshore
flow will keep temperatures lower near the lake front. Local
climate data indicates that downtown chicago struggles to reach
the mid 40s in lake august on days with persistent onshore flow.

Have undercut some of the guidance near the lake front keeping
temperatures in the low 40s immediately along the shore while
inland temperatures should be able to warm into the low to mid
50s.

Models continue to come into better agreement on area of low
pressure lifting across the region late in the week. While timing
differences remain moderately large, models are now honing in on
a low track from near st louis to northern indiana. Despite
falling on the cold side of the low track, forecast soundings from
the GFS indicate the column will be warm enough for all rain.

Models remain in reasonably good agreement through Saturday
building high pressure across the midwest, but begin to diverge
thereafter on handling a cutoff low that develops over the western
states late this week into the weekend.

Deubelbeiss

Aviation
For the 12z tafs...

main forecast concerns are with ifr/lifr ceilings, reduced vis
this morning, wind shift to the northeast this morning.

Weak surface trough is pushing through northeast illinois at this
time, and is allowing for some drizzle or light rain to develop.

This precip will remain light and likely last only for the next
couple of hours. However, do think this will assist with keeping
vis lower, in the 1-2sm range. Ifr and lifr ceilings in place this
morning and at this time, do think there will be some slight
improvement. This may not occur quite as soon though as am
monitoring really low ceilings and vis in dense fog right along
the nearshore waters of lake michigan. As this trough pushes
through over the next couple of hours, winds will turn to the
northeast. Although speeds will initially stay low, this may allow
for these lower conditions to move inland and help keep
conditions lower. Confidence is low with regards to the inland
extent of these lower conditions, but will need to monitor this
morning for possible lower conditions than currently forecast.

Still have a slow improvement in ceilings later today, but once
again, lower ceilings may still linger. Trends would suggest that
the bulk of the precip expected later today may stay just to the
south of the terminals. With these trends, have trended away from
this precip in the tafs, but have not yet removed completely. At
this time, gyy has the highest chance to observe these showers.

Rodriguez

Marine
317 am cdt
low pressure over the central great lakes is departing to the
northeast this morning, while west to northwest winds are in
place. Expect a trend towards the northwest for much of the lake
this morning, and then more northerly throughout today. However,
speeds don't appear to be too strong for much of today. Very moist
conditions still in place over much of the lake, with dense fog
likely being observed over the entire lake with the exception of
the indiana nearshore. Have the dense fog advisory in place
through later this morning and do think this end time still seems
reasonable. Will need to monitor for fog to possibly linger longer
over portions of the lake today though, especially over the
southern end of the lake. High pressure to the northwest and low
pressure tracking through the region just south of the lake
tonight into Tuesday will allow northerly winds to increase.

Expect speeds of 15 to 25 kt with some gusts up to 30 kt over much
of the lake tonight, with these speeds and direction likely
continuing into Tuesday. These stronger winds and building waves
will likely provide conditions hazardous to small craft by late
tonight and especially into Tuesday. These stronger northerly
winds will persist through midweek.

Rodriguez

Lot watches/warnings/advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... Dense fog advisory... Nearshore waters
until 1 pm Monday.

Dense fog advisory... Lmz777-lmz779 until 9 am Monday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 8 mi30 min NE 9.9 G 11 40°F 1014.6 hPa (+0.4)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 8 mi50 min E 4.1 G 5.1 40°F
FSTI2 35 mi90 min NNW 16 41°F
OKSI2 40 mi90 min E 1.9 43°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 40 mi40 min E 2.9 G 2.9 40°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 40 mi40 min NE 8.9 G 8.9 43°F 43°F
CNII2 44 mi30 min N 2.9 G 6 41°F
JAKI2 49 mi90 min E 4.1 41°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL4 mi35 minE 49.00 miOvercast45°F42°F90%1014.6 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI10 mi37 minN 410.00 miOvercast46°F41°F83%1014.5 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI20 mi37 minNE 710.00 miOvercast44°F39°F83%1015.3 hPa

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3E3CalmNE3E3E3E3CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmNW4W3W3CalmN3CalmNE3E4
1 day agoE14
G18
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NE10NE8NE9NE9NE8NE11
G17
NE9N13NE11NE9NE7NE7NE7NE6NE6NE4E7E6E3SE4E3
2 days agoSW14
G22
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G31
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G26
W8
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NE10N14
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N10N12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.