Sunday, October22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Winthrop Harbor, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 5:58PM Sunday October 22, 2017 2:19 PM CDT (19:19 UTC) Moonrise 9:48AMMoonset 8:03PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 106 Pm Cdt Sun Oct 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 pm cdt this afternoon...
Rest of today..West wind 15 to 20 knots veering northwest 10 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 knots. Patchy fog through the day. Isolated Thunderstorms early in the afternoon. Periods of showers through the day. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Numerous showers through around midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to around 1 foot in the late evening and overnight.
Monday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots backing west late in the morning, then backing southwest early in the afternoon rising to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday night..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Gusts up to 25 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ646 Expires:201710222200;;247545 FZUS53 KMKX 221806 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 106 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-222200-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winthrop Harbor village, IL
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location: 42.47, -87.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 221749
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
1249 pm cdt Sun oct 22 2017

Update
1018 am cdt
continue to monitor precip trends this morning, with latest radar
imagery depicting showery development moving through portions of
northern illinois. This has been occurring with several pieces of
shortwave energy lifting across the region, ahead of upper level
trough still to the west. Weak instability axis is overhead and
has supported scattered thunderstorm development. Despite
instability in place, likely weakening forcing has allowed much of
the lightning to diminish at this time. May see coverage of
showery development lower over the next couple of hours but as the
upper level trough and stronger vort lobe over the
central southern plains inch closer, should see coverage and
intensity of showers increase once again going into the afternoon.

Focus will be centered into northeast illinois and then areas east
this afternoon. Lightning still a possibility, and continued
slight chance thunder for the remainder of the day. Now through
the afternoon, will see cold front push through the cwa. Ahead of
it, temps have risen to the upper 60s to low 70s. However, will
see temps fall to the 50s behind the front.

Rodriguez

Short term
Through tonight...

300 am... Forecast concerns include precip timing and temps.

A cold front is just about to cross into northwest il early this
morning with its associated precip slowly dissipating. Additional
scattered showers are developing ahead of the front from pia to
fep and short term guidance has been handling these trends well.

This activity is expected to continue moving northeast and
increasing in coverage through daybreak. Still some uncertainty as
to how far east it will move... Perhaps into the western suburbs
i-55 corridor by mid morning. At that time there may be some
weakening of the showers with additional and more widespread
activity developing by early mid afternoon over the center of the
cwa... Then moving east this evening. Its during this time
period... Afternoon evening... That most of the area will see
showers periods of rain. Best chance for thunder is likely this
morning across the western CWA but just slight chance mention.

Confidence is low for when precip ends tonight and if it may
continue across the southeast cwa. Some guidance continues showers
across the eastern third or so of the area all night and into
Monday morning as an upper low moves north across the ohio valley.

Thus maintaining some likely pops across these areas is
reasonable from this distance.

Southerly winds have remained gusty early this morning and
combined with cloud cover have kept temps in the 60s. Highs in the
west will be this morning as temps fall behind the front. But
temps likely to warm into the lower 70s from i-55 east... Maybe
mid 70s in northwest indiana. As the front continues across the
area this afternoon... Temps will fall back into the 50s. Low
confidence for precip tonight also affects low temps... Mainly in
the west. If clouds clear across parts of the area... Temps could
be cooler than currently expected... In the mid 40s. Met guidance
drops lows in the west into the upper 30s so trends will need to
be monitored later this evening. Cms

Long term
Monday through Saturday...

300 am... Forecast focus is on a much cooler pattern through next
weekend with periodic chances for showers.

Another cold front will move across the area Monday afternoon into
Monday evening with a burst of much cooler air for the middle of
the week. There is some uncertainty regarding how this next front
and following upper low interacts with the upper low moving
across the ohio valley. Latest ECMWF merges these systems with
quite a bit of precip across the area. NAM gem GFS all move precip
off to the northeast with just a chance of showers... Likely
diurnally driven Tuesday afternoon evening and probably scattered.

Currently several periods with pops and these will likely be able
to be trimmed and refined as this time period approaches. Temps
on Tuesday likely to struggle to reach 50 with lows in the mid 30s
by Wednesday morning. These temps may lead to some patchy frost
but didn't include mention in this forecast due to uncertainty
regarding winds cloud cover.

Still some potential for isolated showers Wednesday with similar
high temps... Upper 40s lower 50s. A short lived and fast moving
ridge moves across the area Thursday... Though timing still varies
and this will likely lead to a little warm up on Thursday with
highs perhaps back to 60. But another stronger cold front will
move across the area Thursday night into Friday. Latest ECMWF is
looking similar to its run 24 hours ago with a system developing
over the region and the front slowing with periods of showers
before the front moves east. GFS is similar but more progressive
with the front. Too early to pin down specifics but what this
front currently looks to do is bring an even colder blast to the
region for next weekend. Cms

Aviation
For the 18z tafs...

concerns for the chicago area tafs through Monday are:
- wind shift to northwest occurring 20z-21z, and then shifting to
due north or possibly north-northeast and persisting 22z-04z
- ifr clouds and possibly lifr clouds moving in behind the
northwest wind shift and persisting through the evening with a
chance they continue into early Monday morning
- temporary ifr visibility in drizzle rain later this afternoon
into the evening
a complex weather evolution this afternoon with current gusty
south winds expected to flip to gusty north by sunset. The cold
front is located about 40 miles west of ord as of 1745z and
slowly moving east. This front will shift the winds to northwest.

As a low pressure over central illinois moves along the front, the
winds are likely to continue to veer to due north late this
afternoon and possibly flop to north-northeast (030 degrees). This
period of north or north-northeast winds will persist into the
mid-evening. Confidence in north-northeast winds is low-medium,
but in winds turning at least 350-360 is medium-high. Will be
watching closely and amd for a north-northeast direction if
confidence increases.

This window of north or north-northeast winds will overlap with
ifr ceilings, which are moving in behind the front. There have
been lifr ceilings as low as 400 ft observed. The lifr ceilings
correlate to drizzle and do expect that drizzle to move into the
chicago airports, so that's why lifr is possible mid-afternoon
through early evening. Rain as opposed to drizzle is likely to
become more prevalent again late this afternoon into early evening
as well. Confidence in rain drizzle and ceilings during the
precipitation is medium-high.

The entire system should gradually move east late this evening
into overnight. Confidence is low on when ceilings improve, and
there is a chance ifr could linger to 14z.

Mtf

Marine
301 am cdt
an active weather pattern will be in place across the great lakes
through the upcoming week. Today, low pressure will lift across
manitoba to hudson bay while a trailing cold front pushes across
lake michigan. Southerly winds to 30 kt with an occasional gale
to 35 kt possible will be in place out ahead of the front, then
winds will turn west to northwest behind the front late this
afternoon through the evening. While there may be a very brief
window of northwest winds to 25 or 30 kt along the front, winds
are expected to fairly quickly diminish behind the front.

Southwest flow overspreads the lake again by Monday as another
front moves into the far upper midwest. This second stronger
front will move across lake michigan Monday evening and overnight
resulting in winds swinging back around to the northwest to north
across lake michigan. The cold front and associated trough is
expected to merge with another developing low lifting north from
the ohio valley into the central and eastern great lakes Tuesday.

As the low deepens and colder air filters into the region, winds
will increase to gale strength on Tuesday and continue into
Tuesday night. There are still large model differences in how
quickly and deeply the low will be which will impact the strength
of the gales. For now, not making big changes to the forecast due
to lower confidence, but this is certainly a period to keep an
eye on in the coming days as the details come into better focus.

Bmd

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory... Nearshore waters
until 4 pm Sunday.

Visit us at http: weather.Gov chicago (all lowercase)
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 8 mi79 min S 9.9 G 11 58°F 1012.9 hPa (-0.6)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 8 mi39 min SSW 14 G 16 67°F
45174 25 mi29 min SSE 9.7 G 14 63°F 58°F3 ft60°F
FSTI2 35 mi139 min S 34 70°F
OKSI2 40 mi139 min W 4.1 72°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 40 mi29 min NW 12 G 16 52°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 40 mi29 min S 20 G 23 69°F 61°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 44 mi89 min SSE 18 G 19 63°F 61°F3 ft1013.5 hPa (-0.7)
CNII2 44 mi19 min SSE 16 G 17 71°F 58°F
45013 44 mi100 min NNW 12 G 16 54°F 52°F1014.2 hPa
JAKI2 49 mi139 min SSW 13 71°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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NE5
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL4 mi24 minW 89.00 miOvercast66°F64°F93%1012.5 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI10 mi26 minNW 14 G 212.00 miRain Fog/Mist55°F53°F93%1014.2 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI20 mi26 minNNW 11 G 192.00 miRain Fog/Mist55°F54°F96%1015 hPa

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS12S14S8S15S13S14S15S11
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S12S14S14S13S10W8
1 day agoS12S14S8S6S6S9S9S12S10S13S11S13S10S9S11S9S6
G15
S9S10S12S13S14S16S14
G22
2 days agoSE8SE7S8S7S5S4S4SW4S4S4S7S4SW5SW7SW6SW7SW8SW8SW10SW8SW10SW10SW10SW10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.