Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Winthrop Harbor, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 7:49PM Thursday August 17, 2017 7:56 PM CDT (00:56 UTC) Moonrise 1:32AMMoonset 4:33PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 706 Pm Cdt Thu Aug 17 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
Tonight..West wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Slight chance of showers in the evening. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday..West wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Gusts up to 25 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday night..West wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots veering east early in the afternoon, then veering south late in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves nearly calm.
LMZ646 Expires:201708180400;;545379 FZUS53 KMKX 180006 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 706 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-180400-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winthrop Harbor village, IL
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location: 42.47, -87.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 172326
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
626 pm cdt Thu aug 17 2017

Short term
224 pm cdt
tonight and Friday...

gusty west-southwest winds and isolated showers across far
northern il are the main forecast concerns through the remainder
of the afternoon and very early evening hours. Breezy and drier
conditions expected overnight and much of Friday.

Stacked surface and upper level low pressure noted across
northern wi this afternoon. Tight pressure gradient associated
with the surface low was producing gusty west-southwest winds near
30 mph, and these winds will continue through the afternoon
before gradually diminishing this evening. Regional radar mosaic
also depicts scattered showers wrapping across northeast ia far
northern il and much of wi, though these are expected to mainly
affect areas of far northern il along the wi border area through
the remainder of the afternoon. Loss of weak diurnal instability
with sunset, and gradual drying of the low levels behind the cold
front, should allow these to dissipate by early this evening.

The upper low and occluded surface system lift northeast away
from the area later tonight and Friday, with modest height rises
and subsidence developing across the forecast area during the day.

Weak surface high pressure ridge passes downstate, with enough
gradient lingering farther north for breezy conditions across the
area especially during the morning and early afternoon hours
before the gradient relaxes further. Subsidence and slightly drier
low level flow should allow for more sunshine than today, though
mid-level cloud cover will likely increase from the west late in
the day as the next upstream short-wave approaches. Overnight
temps tonight should dip to the low-mid 60's across the region,
with highs on Friday generally between near 80 far north and the
low-mid 80's central and southern parts of the cwa.

Ratzer

Long term
224 pm cdt
Friday night through Thursday...

showers and storms are possible Friday night as an upper level
trough axis rotates through the region. Showers may linger east of
i-55 Monday morning, but dry conditions are then expected for the
rest of the weekend. Cooler air moves overhead with the trough
leading to highs in the low 80s away from the lake Saturday.

High pressure spreads over the region Saturday afternoon bringing a
warming trend with it. Highs will be in the upper 80s to near 90 by
Monday. I have low confidence in precip chances Monday. Guidance
indicates a short wave trough will approach the region and my kick
off showers and storms. The ECMWF has the trough much further north
than the gfs, and storms should be closely tied to the location of
the shortwave. Kept a slight chance to chance of showers and storms
mainly due to the gfs' solution.

For those hoping to view the eclipse, it looks like cloud cover will
be increasing through the day. I kept partly clouding wording
going.

A cold front pushes down the lake and through the region Tuesday
evening night, and we could see additional showers and storms ahead
of the front. The 12z ECMWF is much more aggressive with vorticity
and precip Tuesday than the 00z run was. The 12z ECMWF and GFS also
have much more consistent front timing. While the 12z ECMWF gives me
higher confidence, I still kept precip values in the chance
category. Quieter weather returns Wednesday. High temps are forecast
to be around 80 Wednesday and then in the upper 70s Thursday.

Jee

Aviation
For the 00z tafs...

626 pm... Gusty westerly winds will slowly diminish this evening
and into the 8-12kt range overnight and then increase again Friday
morning with gusts to 20kts... With directions turning more to the
west northwest.

A few showers near the il wi state line will continue this
evening. With just isolated coverage and short duration... No
mention with this forecast. Overnight through Friday afternoon is
expected to be dry. A weak wave will move across the area Friday
night and may bring showers and few thunderstorms. Confidence is
low for timing and location so no mention with the 30 hour ord taf
but some precip mention with later forecasts may be need Friday
evening into early Saturday morning. Cms

Marine
224 pm cdt
the small craft advisory will continue through tonight.

Low pressure over northern wisconsin will continue northeast through
the weekend. It's cold front will pass across the lake this evening
causing winds to become west to 30 kt. Winds diminish Friday as the
low continues northeast across canada. A weak surface low will pass
south of the lake Friday night. Wind directions will vary across the
lake in response to the low. High pressure will spread over the
lake Saturday evening and continue east to the atlantic coast by
Monday. Winds become south behind the high. A cold front is forecast
to shift down the lake Tuesday afternoon evening.

Jee

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory... Nearshore waters until 3 am Friday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 8 mi56 min W 13 G 27 77°F 1005.4 hPa (+0.7)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 8 mi53 min W 18 78°F
45174 25 mi26 min W 16 G 21 78°F 73°F2 ft67°F
FSTI2 35 mi116 min W 11 80°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 40 mi36 min W 13 G 16 74°F
OKSI2 40 mi116 min WNW 1.9 81°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 40 mi36 min WSW 16 G 23 80°F 65°F
45177 41 mi116 min 75°F
45013 44 mi77 min WSW 18 G 27 74°F 70°F1005 hPa
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 44 mi66 min WNW 12 G 14 72°F 71°F2 ft1005.3 hPa (+0.3)
JAKI2 49 mi116 min WSW 11 80°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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G14
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N7
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G11
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G14
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G12

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL4 mi61 minW 10 G 1710.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F64°F64%1004.4 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI10 mi63 minW 13 G 2510.00 miOvercast76°F64°F67%1005.3 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI20 mi63 minW 11 G 1810.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F66°F79%1005.3 hPa

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3SE3SE5SE6S10----------SW10SW7S9S12SW11SW11SW13SW13
G21
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G17
1 day agoNE4NE3NE3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5E8E5E6E6E6E8NE9E8E10SE4S8
2 days agoCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmNW3CalmCalmN4N5NE6NE6NE8NE9NE10
G16
N10
G15
NE8NE9
G15
NE7NE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.