Monday, September24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Winthrop Harbor, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 6:45PM Monday September 24, 2018 2:41 AM CDT (07:41 UTC) Moonrise 6:59PMMoonset 5:58AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 106 Am Cdt Mon Sep 24 2018
Rest of tonight..Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots. Clear. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Monday..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Monday night..South wind 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Chance of showers through around midnight, then slight chance of showers after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then veering southwest late in the afternoon. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ646 Expires:201809240900;;120435 FZUS53 KMKX 240606 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 106 AM CDT Mon Sep 24 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-240900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winthrop Harbor village, IL
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location: 42.47, -87.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 240732
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
232 am cdt Mon sep 24 2018

Short term
232 am cdt
through tonight...

broad and subtle southern stream shortwave trough over the
southern plains will ripple northeastward across il and in this
afternoon. Meanwhile, low pressure over the northern and central
plains will deepen as it moves northeast into canada this
afternoon. Low level flow will turn southerly in response to this
low tracking to north, which will advect richer low level moisture
and an associated stratus deck north into our CWA this afternoon.

Plume of mid-upper level moisture associated with the southern
stream should creep northward today as the subtle southern stream
shortwave trough tracks northeastward. Forcing from this shortwave
trough could be enough to produce some scattered showers,
particularly over our southern CWA where the plume of mid-upper
level moisture will be closer and more supportive of shower
development.

In wake of this lead southern stream shortwave tonight, look for
mid-upper level moisture to be driven back south of our cwa.

However, low level warm moist advection will continue tonight with
forecast soundings suggesting the depth of the stratus deck could
grow to between 6-9kft. The deepening warm cloud depth, some
modest low level ascent from the waa, and collision and
coalescence within the deep warm (>0c) cloud looks to be a pretty
favorable set-up for drizzle tonight. Have added drizzle into the
grids tonight and with cloud depth in some models nearing 10kft,
it's possible could see some light rain as well.

As the stratus deck encroaches from the south today, look for
temps to flat line or even drop off a couple degrees as skies go
overcast. This should result in a warmest temps today over
northwest CWA where mid 70s look attainable, while under the
stratus deck temps will probably fall to near 70 to perhaps the
upper 60s. The cloud cover tonight should serve as a blanket
keeping temps nearly steady much of the night and have gone above
guidance for low temps tonight given this expectation.

- izzi

Long term
155 am cdt
Tuesday through Sunday...

a cold front will sweep across the region on Tuesday bringing a
showers and thunderstorms to the area along with a conditional
threat for severe weather. Longwave trough is forecast to be in
place across the northern great plains on Tuesday while a
positively tilted shortwave lifts across the upper midwest
during the afternoon and evening hours. Local area will fall
within the right entrance region to a strong upper jet over the
upper midwest enhancing large scale ascent over the region. At
the surface, a cold front is expected to be near the mississippi
river by mid afternoon and will move across the forecast area by
late in the evening. Steepening mid level lapse rates atop warm
and moist surface conditions could result in modest to moderate
instability developing ahead of the front across portions of
northern illinois and northwest indiana. The amount of
destabilization remains the main area of uncertainty, but if these
ingredients do come together then the combination of instability
and strong flow aloft could support a severe weather threat over
the area on Tuesday.

For Wednesday and Thursday, high pressure will build back across
the great lakes behind the departing cold front resulting a
couple days of fair weather locally. Temperatures will turn cooler
once again with highs mainly in the 60s both days, though some
spots may tag 70f south of i-80 on Thursday.

Still some modest timing differences in models, but expect another
cold front to move across the region Thursday evening or
overnight. The surface ridge axis, meanwhile, will stretch from
new england southwest into texas and does not provide favorable
trajectories for moisture return into the local area. Given this
and the unfavorable diurnal timing of fropa, instability will be
missing to support any thunder threat for the late week front, and
many models even suggest dry frontal passage.

Over the weekend, surface ridge axis shifts farther east while
baroclinic zone sets up across portions of the midwest. Increasing
southwest flow across the baroclinic zone will support precip
chances over the weekend. In addition, there is the possibility
for a sharp temperature gradient over or very near the forecast
area with upper 70s 80s south and 50s north. Given the proximity
of this gradient, forecast details remain unclear at this
distance.

Deubelbeiss

Aviation
For the 06z tafs...

primary aviation concern is timing of MVFR CIGS arrival and how
low CIGS will get. Have pushed back the timing a bit given dry low
level easterly flow in place, have trended toward the slowest
guidance for timing of MVFR CIGS arriving. Models suggest that
cigs could drop to ifr at times later tomorrow afternoon and into
the evening. While this is certainly plausible, synoptically and
climo don't really scream ifr, so opted to not introduce ifr into
the TAF at this time.

- izzi

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45187 3 mi41 min 66°F 65°F3 ft
45186 7 mi41 min S 16 66°F 67°F3 ft
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 8 mi41 min SE 18 G 21 65°F 1020 hPa (-0.3)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 8 mi61 min SE 20 G 23 66°F
45174 25 mi31 min SE 18 G 23 66°F 69°F4 ft60°F
FSTI2 35 mi101 min ESE 20 65°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 40 mi31 min SSE 13 G 16 66°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 40 mi41 min SE 22 G 24 65°F 57°F
45013 44 mi64 min SE 14 G 18 67°F 65°F3 ft1020.2 hPa
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 44 mi51 min ESE 19 G 23 65°F 69°F3 ft1020.5 hPa (+0.0)55°F
CNII2 44 mi26 min ESE 12 G 20 63°F 55°F
JAKI2 49 mi101 min SE 2.9 G 8.9 64°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL4 mi46 minSE 910.00 miFair63°F55°F78%1019.5 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI10 mi48 minSSE 710.00 miFair62°F57°F86%1020.3 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI20 mi48 minSSE 11 G 1810.00 miFair65°F55°F73%1020.6 hPa

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmSW4CalmSE5E86E6E11E9NE8E7NE4CalmE4E4E6SE6SE9SE9
1 day agoNW5NW7N7N6N3E10E13E13E11
G18
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E9E11NE8E8E6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSW20
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SW13SW12W8
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G24
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G25
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NW7NW64NW4N4N6NW6N5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.