Sunday, May20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Winthrop Harbor, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 5:22AMSunset 8:13PM Sunday May 20, 2018 9:08 AM CDT (14:08 UTC) Moonrise 10:39AMMoonset 12:36AM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 705 Am Cdt Sun May 20 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..North wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots in the afternoon. Rain showers likely in the morning, then chance of showers in the late morning and early afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 4 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Tonight..North wind 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots after midnight, then rising to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Monday..East wind 10 to 15 knots backing northeast late in the afternoon. Rain showers likely in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots late in the evening, then backing north after midnight becoming north 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through around midnight, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ646 Expires:201805201600;;249792 FZUS53 KMKX 201205 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 705 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-201600-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winthrop Harbor village, IL
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location: 42.47, -87.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 201201
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
701 am cdt Sun may 20 2018

Short term
220 am cdt
through tonight...

early this morning, high pressure is building into the upper midwest
and has helped push cooler air south into northern illinois. A cold
front has surged down the lake moving across northeastern illinois
early today where temperatures have fallen into the 40s. Southwest
flow aloft overriding this colder air is kicking off a few scattered
showers this morning over portions of north central illinois. Expect
this to continue across the northern tier of counties in illinois
into southern wisconsin through the morning. Temperatures will
remain on the cooler side today topping out in the 50s and low 60s
north of i-80 and eventually warming into the 70s south.

A pair of shortwave troughs are expected to lift across the region
later today bringing additional chances for thunderstorms. The lead
wave lifting from the southern plains will move across central
illinois early to mid this afternoon. There remains relatively poor
model agreement on location and coverage of any potential storms,
but the best chances will likely be confined to areas south of the
illinois kankakee river valleys this afternoon, with a decent
likelihood it stays south of the CWA altogether. Modest instability
coupled with moderately strong shear across the southern counties in
the CWA would support a conditional severe threat if storms were to
be in the area.

A second wave lifts across the region overnight. Given the fairly
modest forcing for ascent and unfavorable diurnal timing of the
wave, opted to lower pops from going forecast for tonight. Think
that widely scattered showers isolated thunderstorms that form
upstream may be able to persist for a while across the cwa
overnight, but likely in a weakening state.

Deubelbeiss

Long term
220 am cdt
Monday through Saturday...

showers and a few thunderstorms are possible again on Monday. Gfs
and ecm are in good agreement with right entrance region to upper
jet translating overhead coincident with a damping 500mb vort max.

Soundings show very modest instability over northern illinois and
northwest indiana, though enough to support at least a low end
thunder threat. Temperatures continue to run on the cooler side
Monday under the influence of the broad surface ridge over the
great lakes. Onshore flow will hold highs in the 50s and low 60s
near the lake while inland 60s and 70s are expected.

Tuesday through Thursday, upper low is expected to close off
across socal while downstream amplification of upper ridge is
expected across the mid section of the country. Lee side of the
upper ridge begins to build across the western great lakes Tuesday
while surface high pressure builds into portions of the upper
midwest and western great lakes. This provides the best chance for
a couple days of primarily dry weather, though guidance does show
convection all around the cwa, and couldn't rule out a stray
shower moving into the area. Expect some sunshine on Tuesday,
though would also expect cirrus from upstream convection to stream
overhead at times. Soundings show more mid high level moisture on
Wednesday as upstream convection moves even closer to the cwa.

Despite increasing cloud cover, guidance does indicate we will see
a gradual warming trend as the upper ridge builds overhead. By
Wednesday expect widespread upper 70s with some 80s possible, with
the exception again being areas along the lake which will be held
in the 60s. Warming trend should continue into Thursday as the
500mb ridge axis passes overhead. Convection won't be too far off
to our west by this time, focused along the mississippi valley.

Friday and Saturday, buckle develops within the upper flow pattern
and shower and thunderstorm chances return in earnest to the
forecast area. Global models in reasonable agreement showing a broad
surface low developing over the canadian prairies and upper
midwest Friday and shifting east across the great lakes over the
weekend. Initial warm advection wing brings precip chances on
Friday and a trailing cold front brings additional chances on
Saturday.

Deubelbeiss

Aviation
For the 12z tafs...

mainly MVFR ceilings in place this morning, with the exception of
gyy where lifr ifr ceilings remain. In this location, a slow rise
is likely, however, it may take longer than previously thought.

Elsewhere, ceilings may bounce around low end MVFR and ifr for a
couple hours before a slow trend upward occurs. MVFR will then
likely continue for much of today, and will once again monitor a
period of lower ceilings later tonight into Monday morning. Fog
and lower vis will be limited this morning, with gyy the only site
to likely observe this vis restriction. No real big change in
winds expected, with an east northeast wind likely to persist.

Precip trends will be challenging today, but in the near term, it
does appear that showers with isolated thunder will be possible.

Highest chances will be across the rfd terminal but latest radar
imagery is depicting scattered development further to the east.

This precip may persist for the next several hours, but with a dry
trend expected later this afternoon. Confidence lowers with
precip chances later tonight, but with the pattern supportive
another chance of showers and even possibly thunder late tonight
into Monday morning.

Rodriguez

Marine
248 am cdt
a surface trough front has pushed south through much of the lake
early this morning, with the northerly winds observing an increase
to the 15 to 25 kt range over much of the lake. Although winds up
to 30 kt are not expected, a few gusts approaching these speeds
may still occur early this morning. While northerly winds will be
present today across the lake, for the nearshore waters, highest
speeds this morning should remain mainly along the il nearshore
with speeds and waves slightly lower over the in nearshore. Winds
are then expected to turn more to the east tonight, while speeds
and waves lower.

Rodriguez

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory... Winthrop harbor to burns harbor until
9 pm Sunday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 8 mi49 min NNE 22 43°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 8 mi69 min 43°F 1022 hPa (+2.4)
45174 25 mi39 min N 16 G 19 42°F 46°F5 ft42°F
FSTI2 35 mi129 min N 38 43°F
OKSI2 40 mi129 min NNE 12 G 16 45°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 40 mi49 min NNE 20 G 24 42°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 40 mi49 min N 20 G 21 43°F 42°F
CNII2 44 mi39 min NNW 12 G 16 44°F 41°F
JAKI2 49 mi129 min NNE 12 G 19 46°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL4 mi74 minNNE 15 G 2010.00 miOvercast43°F39°F89%1021.7 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI10 mi76 minNNE 14 G 2010.00 miOvercast45°F39°F83%1022.1 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI20 mi76 minNNE 18 G 2610.00 miOvercast and Breezy43°F39°F89%1022.2 hPa

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4CalmCalmCalmSE4E3E5E4Calm3SE3SE4SW5CalmNE10NE10N12
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1 day agoNE8NE8NE10NE11
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NE6NE4NE3NE5NE7NE9NE9NE6NE5NE6N4N4NE4CalmNW3
2 days agoN8NE8NE6NE7N9NE10NE12N15
G21
N11NE9N7N9
G17
N5N5NE7NE7NE6NE6NE5NE7NE8NE6NE8NE8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.