Friday, November16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Winthrop Harbor, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 4:29PM Friday November 16, 2018 8:38 PM CST (02:38 UTC) Moonrise 2:33PMMoonset 12:31AM Illumination 66% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 705 Pm Cst Fri Nov 16 2018
Tonight..West wind 10 to 15 knots veering northwest late in the evening, then easing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Slight chance of rain and snow through around midnight, then snow and rain after midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots veering north 10 to 20 knots late in the morning, then becoming 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Rain and snow in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot building to 3 to 4 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Saturday night..North wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots backing northwest early in the morning. Mostly cloudy through around midnight then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet early in the morning.
Sunday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots late in the morning, then rising to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon becoming west 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ646 Expires:201811170500;;416481 FZUS53 KMKX 170106 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 705 PM CST Fri Nov 16 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-170500-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winthrop Harbor village, IL
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location: 42.47, -87.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 170214
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
814 pm cst Fri nov 16 2018

Update
814 pm cst
not planning any noteworthy changes to going forecast for this
evening. Overall, not much to add to the short term discussion
issued earlier this afternoon below.

Couple items of note to watch for:
1) the rap continues to be quite aggressive with a deep
frontogenetic circulation persisting into tomorrow afternoon. In
addition to the more robust persistent f-gen band in the rap,
cross sections cut through the f-gen band show some fairly deep
pretty strongly negative layers of saturated epv (indicative of
less stable conditions) coincident with the stronger omega. This
certainly suggests at least some potential for exists for some
bands of moderate to heavy snow embedded within the larger snow
shield. That could result in some localized 3 to maybe near 4
inch totals, but thinking is those amounts will be very much the
exception not the rule. Given the low confidence and limited areal
coverage of heavier amounts, don't see a need to adjust going
forecast snowfall amounts as the forecast message would largely be
unchanged.

2) snow, potentially at a decent clip, should continue through
midday in the chicago area, however with temps likely to be near
or a hair above freezing and battling the time of day, suspect
that it will get increasingly difficult for accums to occur on
roadways.

3) finally, as short discussion alluded to, models are notorious
for struggling with accurate depiction of f-gen band intensity and
duration. While many models suggest a quick weakening of f-gen
circulation and resultant snowfall as it gets into northern il, it
wouldn't be at all surprising to see occasionally moderate
snowfall continuing through the morning and perhaps even into the
afternoon.

Only planned changes to the grids forecast this evening are:
* tweaking hourly temps a bit to reflect a trend driven more by
precip than diurnal influences.

* adjust pops to 100% over northern cwa
* adjust sky cover to remain overcast through the day Saturday
updated grids and test products will be out shortly...

- izzi

Short term
310 pm cst
through Sunday...

main concern is our next round of light snow accumulations tonight
into Saturday, with some minor additional snowfall possible
Saturday night for portions of east central illinois and northwest
indiana. Will not be issuing any winter headlines for tonight-
Saturday's minor event given expected amounts below typical
criteria, mostly light snow rates, and Saturday morning timing.

Regional radar early this afternoon mosaic indicates the
advertised fairly narrow swath of snow from portions of the
dakotas to southwest minnesota. This is being driven by an
elongated but potent mid-level short-wave diving southeast across
the aforementioned areas. In addition, a tight thermal
gradient baroclinic zone was noted over the central and northern
plains, with this contributing mesoscale frontogenetic enhancement
to the snow. The overall trend in observations and in the guidance
has been a slight southward shift in the snow swath, with
ingredients looking to maximize from northeast ia into southwest
wi. Initial narrow band or bands of warm advection light snow
driven by a modest west-southwest ~20 kt 850 mb low level jet may
try to push into portions of northern illinois mainly north of
i-88 as early as the late evening hours. With this initial push
encountering antecedent dry air aloft, it may end up being mostly
virga, so kept pops low through around midnight. The initial waa
wing will also start the top down saturation process, helping to
get steadier precip going overnight.

A roughly west-east and still fairly narrow axis of snow will set
up mostly north of i-88 after midnight as mid-level short-wave
draws closer and low-level convergence and f-gen increases.

Forecast soundings indicate a relatively small dendritic growth
(snow growth) zone, though with decent lift co-located within the
dgz for a time. Therefore anticipate steady light to temporary
moderate snow rates. While forcing ingredients will be fairly
impressive for a time just to our northwest, there is good
agreement in the model guidance that the mid-level short-wave
driving large scale forcing to dampen weaken into Saturday
morning. Thus, for this reason the snowfall intensity overall may
trend downward Saturday morning over northern il into far
northwest indiana.

The main question is how long into Saturday morning does the
support for transient stronger banding as the area of snow shifts
more steadily southward with a southward moving cold front. Have
gone with the idea of some maintenance of banding signatures
despite evidence in some of the short range guidance of a quicker
erosion of the precip shield. While there doesn't look to be
instability above the lower-level frontogenesis, have to consider
the possibility of f-gen banding remaining stronger longer than on
a majority of the guidance (as shown on 12z wrf-arw and nmm).

The narrow dgz, only short period of lift maximizing within dgz,
and temps close to freezing during the event will keep ratios
mostly below 10:1, perhaps highest far north and northwest.

Amounts are favored to be up to around an inch roughly between
i-80 and i-88, 1-2" north of i-88 and best chance for 2 to locally
3" amounts closer to the wisconsin border. There may be some minor
travel impacts Saturday morning given mostly light snowfall rates.

As the precip area likely further diminishes in intensity Saturday
afternoon with southward progression, it will also encounter
temps likely having warmed to above freezing, so any accums south
will be likely a dusting to a few tenths at most on colder grassy
surfaces. A marginal set-up for lake effect precipitation will
then evolve with northerly flow over the lake, caa, and with time
lower-level convergence late day into Saturday night. Given low
inversion heights below 6kft, suspect lake effect precip will be
spotty, so kept pops in only slight to low chance range for this
for now, but will need to monitor trends. Finally, elevated
frontal zone will remain stalled near or south of southern cwa
Saturday night into Sunday morning with subtle low amplitude
wave(s) interacting with it. This could bring some additional
light snow accums to areas south of the kankakee river, with low
magnitude of forcing likely keeping any accums under 1". Sunday
will feature decreasing clouds and light winds but continued
unseasonably chilly highs in the lower to mid 30s after starting
in the 20s.

Castro

Long term
310 pm cst
Sunday night through Friday...

Sunday night through Tuesday night: broad troughing over hudson bay
will begin to slowly shift east during this time, with deep cyclonic
flow remaining over the western great lakes. However, conditions
should remain dry across the area. The one exception will be the
potential for a brief shot of les for mainly northern porter county
sometime Monday night into Tuesday behind a mid-level trough. H8
temps are only marginally supportive of les, so would not expect
any significant impacts.

Wednesday through Friday: guidance begins to differ in the eastward
progression of the broad trough over eastern canada by this time.

However, the general evolution will be toward mid-level ridging and
southerly surface winds over the central CONUS by Friday, promoting
temps closer to normal for late november.

Kluber

Aviation
For the 00z tafs...

530 pm... Primary forecast concern is snow timing chances and
associated vis cigs.

A quick moving and likely narrow band of light snow is expected to
move across far northern il later this evening but there remains
some uncertainty regarding how far south this band may move. For
now... Included tempo mention at rfd dpa ord but the overall
duration could be an hour or less. Very light snow or flurries may
continue behind this band until the main area of light snow
spreads across northern il early Saturday morning. Visibilities
with this snow are expected to lower to 1-2sm across most of the
terminals. Occasionally lower vis is possible... Mainly across
northwest il rfd. Ifr CIGS will also be possible but for now have
maintained prevailing 1kft CIGS for the chicago terminals and
trends will need to be monitored. Timing for the quick moving band
tonight appears to be faster and adjusted timing accordingly.

Timing for the snow overnight looks generally on track... Perhaps a
tad faster and then the trend up looks potentially an hour or two
faster late Saturday morning. Very light snow or flurries may
persist Saturday afternoon and slowly end from north to south.

Some lake effect snow showers are possible Saturday night but
confidence for coverage location is low so no mention for the 30
hr ord mdw tafs.

MVFR CIGS 1-2kft this evening may begin to scatter lift later this
evening but confidence is low and low MVFR CIGS would fill back in
once snow begins later tonight. MVFR CIGS are likely to continue
Saturday after the snow tapers off with CIGS possibly lifting into
lowVFR by late afternoon early evening.

West northwest winds will diminish this evening and are expected
to become light and variable by late evening... Then shift light
northerly by Saturday morning. Confidence on wind directions is
low and they may remain more north northwest during the snow and
then turn more north northeast Saturday afternoon with speeds
increasing toward 10kts. Cms

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory... In nearshore waters until 9 pm Friday.

Visit us at http: weather.Gov chicago (all lowercase)
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45187 3 mi39 min 37°F 43°F1 ft
45186 7 mi39 min W 9.7 37°F 42°F1 ft
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 8 mi59 min W 8.9 G 11 35°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 8 mi39 min W 6 G 7 35°F 1018.3 hPa (+1.7)
FSTI2 35 mi99 min WNW 15 36°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 40 mi29 min WNW 5.1 G 6 35°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 40 mi39 min WSW 9.9 G 11 38°F 31°F
CNII2 44 mi24 min SW 4.1 G 9.9 36°F 28°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 44 mi49 min NW 18 G 19 39°F 45°F4 ft1018.1 hPa (+1.9)31°F
JAKI2 49 mi99 min W 7 G 11 37°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL4 mi44 minWSW 410.00 miA Few Clouds34°F27°F76%1019 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI10 mi46 minW 710.00 miFair32°F28°F88%1018.8 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI20 mi46 minW 410.00 miFair34°F27°F76%1018.9 hPa

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8SW9SW10SW11S11SW12SW12SW9
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NW7NW74NW6SW5W5W5543SW4
1 day agoCalmCalmSE5SE4SE5SE4SE5E3CalmE33E5E5E4CalmCalmCalmCalmW33SW3W5SW9SW7
2 days agoW3W3W3NW3CalmNW3NW3CalmNW3NW3N5N4NW433S35NE4E3E4NE3CalmCalmN3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.