Sunday, May26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ripley, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:48AMSunset 8:46PM Sunday May 26, 2019 3:28 AM EDT (07:28 UTC) Moonrise 1:15AMMoonset 11:48AM Illumination 52% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ061 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on-the-lake Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 957 Pm Edt Sat May 25 2019
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A slight chance of showers late this evening. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..West winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Northeast winds less than 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then scattered showers and Thunderstorms Tuesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Scattered showers during the day, then scattered showers and Thunderstorms Wednesday night. Waves 3 to 6 feet.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ061 Expires:201905260815;;465169 FZUS61 KCLE 260157 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 957 PM EDT Sat May 25 2019 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure 29.50 inches across James Bay will take a cold front south, crossing Lake Erie early Sunday morning. This front will progress south and stall across southern Ohio Sunday evening. High pressure 30.00 inches should move east across the central Great Lakes Sunday reaching western Quebec by Monday morning. A frontal boundary will then meander near Lake Erie Monday through Wednesday. LEZ061-167>169-260815-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ripley, NY
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location: 42.48, -79.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 260544
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
144 am edt Sun may 26 2019

Synopsis
A dry cold front will move across the region today while surface
high pressure builds into the region. This will result in quiet
weather for the remainder of the holiday weekend. The next chance
for rain will be on Tuesday.

Near term through today
With recent rain and a dry cold front still upstream of the region,
patchy fog and low clouds have formed over portions of wny and cny
overnight. With the region still in the warm sector with some
little low level mixing, much of the cloud deck is remaining aloft
and over higher terrain, although there is some advection fog near
the cooler lower great lakes too. Keeping track of low clouds vs
fog will be the main issue into the morning hours, with a close eye
on the potential for dense fog if winds let up.

Later this morning and into the afternoon, an MCS over the oh valley
should skirt to the south of the region. This should send some
higher clouds across portions of wny, but overall it should be a
quiet day in terms of weather. Dewpoints will be on the decrease,
while temperatures reach the lower 70s. The result will be a fairly
comfortable afternoon when compared to Saturday.

Short term tonight through Tuesday night
Following the passage of Sunday's cold front... Canadian high pressure
will ridge southeastward across new york state and provide our region
with quiet dry weather and comfortable temperatures for the remainder
of the long holiday weekend... With lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s
Sunday night followed by highs mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s
on memorial day. As such... The holiday itself will be the best of the
three weekend days.

Monday night and Tuesday our weather will then deteriorate again as the
surface ridge slides off to our east... And gives way to an encroaching
warm frontal boundary and the first in the next series of waves rippling
northeastward around the periphery of upper level ridging anchored across
the southeastern states. The latest model consensus continues to suggest
convective chances returning from west to east Monday night out ahead
of these features... With the greatest potential for such found south of
lake ontario. Showers and storms should then become more numerous for at
least a portion of Tuesday as the wave passes directly across new york
state. With an overall warm air advection regime in place temperatures
will also be on the rise again... With the advancing warm frontal boundary
simultaneously dictating a decent northeast-southwest gradient in readings.

More specifically... Monday night's lows will range from the upper 40s
across the north country to the mid and upper 50s south of lake ontario...

with Tuesday's highs then similarly ranging from the upper 60s to mid-upper
70s... With some readings in the 80s not out of the question should portions
of the area manage to break into the warm sector and experience sufficient
dry time.

After that... The initial wave will slide off to our east Tuesday evening...

while a second and stronger wave develops into the upper great lakes.

With our area thus lying in between these two systems... Precipitation
chances should tend to temporarily decrease for Tuesday night... Though
with considerable uncertainty in the position of the lingering frontal
boundary will have to maintain at least chance pops to cover the potential
for any attendant widely scattered to scattered convection. Otherwise the
general upward trend in temperatures will continue... With lows ranging
from the mid 50s across the north country to the lower 60s across much
of far western new york.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
Moving on into the longer term portion of the forecast... The second
and stronger wave appears as if it will push across southern ontario
and into western quebec Wednesday and Wednesday night... While pushing
an attendant warm frontal segment and or prefrontal trough across
our region between Wednesday and Wednesday evening. This should result
in the likelihood of yet another round of showers and storms crossing
our region during this time frame... With an attendant 50 kt low level
jet and sufficiently strong mid and upper level wind fields again
supporting a potential for some of these to become strong to severe.

Following the passage of this feature... Convective chances should
then again dwindle at least somewhat Wednesday night. With respect
to temps... Highs on Wednesday will be heavily dependent on the rate
of progress of the surface boundary and its attendant cloud precipitation
coverage. Currently readings from the mid 70s to lower 80s appear
to be a decent bet... However it should be noted that the increasing
warmth of our airmass aloft (850 mb temps pushing into the mid teens
celsius) would be enough to support readings of a category higher
than this in some locations should there turn out to be enough dry
time. Following this... Fairly widespread lows in the lower to mid
60s can then be expected for Wednesday night.

On Thursday surface low pressure will push further northeastward
across quebec province... And in tandem with an approaching mid
level trough will push its trailing cold front across our region.

This should result in another round of at least scattered showers
and storms. Canadian high pressure and cooler drier air building
into our region in the wake of the front should then bring a welcome
period of fair dry weather and more comfortable temperatures for
Friday and Friday night... With the latter returning to right around
normal levels for the end of may.

Finally... The surface ridge will slide off to our east on Saturday...

while allowing the next wave of low pressure and its trailing cold
front to approach our region from the northwest. This could result
in a renewed potential for some scattered showers and storms as we
progress through the day... Along with temperatures climbing back into
the 70s areawide as a southwesterly flow of warmer air overspreads
our region in between the departing high and advancing low.

Aviation 06z Sunday through Thursday
A dry surface cold front will slowly move through the region today.

This will eventually help to clear areas of fog and or low clouds
with areas of ifr improving toVFR by afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday...VFR.

Tuesday... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

Wednesday and Thursday... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers
and thunderstorms.

Marine
Wsw winds are expected today. They should stay below 18kts with
little wave action as the choppy waters will be closer to the
northern shores. Winds will gradually turn northwest by Sunday night
into Monday and weaken.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Hsk zaff
near term... Zaff
short term... Jjr
long term... Jjr
aviation... Hsk zaff
marine... Hsk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EREP1 25 mi59 min SW 8.9 G 12
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 26 mi89 min SW 18 G 20 62°F 1012.8 hPa (-0.4)
45142 - Port Colborne 35 mi89 min WSW 14 G 16 51°F 47°F3 ft1013 hPa (-0.2)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 45 mi59 min 59°F 1012.9 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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S7
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G8
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G12
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G10
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W16
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G24
SW12
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SW9
NW15
G19
NW13
G16
NW9
G13
W6
G9
SW6

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY31 mi36 minWSW 14 G 2210.00 miFair71°F63°F76%1013.4 hPa

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmS8S13S15
G20
S14
G22
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G22
NW9W3SW9W9
G17
SW13
G20
SW15
G28
SW15
G24
SW13
G27
W16
G27
S8S7SW8SW14
G22
SW14
G20
SW15
G25
SW12
G23
SW14
G22
1 day agoW6SW6SW6SW4W5W7W7W10SW11W5SW5CalmW7SW8SW6SW7CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoS10S12
G19
S12S13
G21
S15
G22
S11
G20
S10SW6SW10--SW17
G24
W20
G32
SW24
G33
SW20
G30
W19
G29
SW18
G30
W17
G30
W16
G28
W9SW7W7NW96W6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.