Sunrise 6:30 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 3:03 PM   Moonset 3:56 AM

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LEZ061 Ripley To Buffalo Ny Extending From 5nm Off Shoreline To Us- Canadian Border-geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh Beyond 5 Nm Off Shoreline To Us- Canadian Border- Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny Beyond 5 Nm Off Shoreline To Us- Canadian Border- 350 Am Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
Today - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Showers this morning, then a slight chance of showers early this afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Tonight - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Saturday - West winds 15 to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Saturday night - West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet. Sunday - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet, then subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Monday - Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 feet or less. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LEZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 190750 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 350 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will move east across the area today, bringing another round of gusty showers to the region. There will be one more round of scattered showers Saturday afternoon, then dry weather will return for Sunday. The weekend will be quite cool with a stretch of below average temperatures.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Regional radar shows an approaching area of precipitation stretching from Lower Michigan to western Ohio early this morning. Clouds will increase especially across western NY.

An area of low pressure within a large trough will move across northern Ontario today. Surface analysis shows a cold front extending into the Ohio Valley with a weak wave of low pressure over Ohio this morning. A southeast wind will continue to increase as the cold front approaches the region this morning. A 40kt low level jet ahead of the cold front may result in downsloping with wind gusts 35- 40mph along the Chautauqua Ridge by late morning. Elsewhere, breezy southeast winds with gusts up to 30 mph are expected. The cold front will move across the region and rain showers will move from west to east across the forecast area today. The secondary low over Ohio this morning will become absorbed into the surface trough and weaken as it moves east today. Showers will lose intensity with rainfall amounts between 0.10-0.20 inches across far western NY to less than 0.10 inches across the Genesee Valley to the Finger Lakes region.
Steady rain showers will move east of Lake Ontario this afternoon with rainfall amounts averaging 0.10 inches. A southerly upslope component may intensify rainfall on the southern side of the Tug Hill to which rainfall amounts may reach 0.20 inches. Winds will veer to the southwest behind the frontal boundary today. Southwest wind gusts up to 35 mph are expected across the Niagara Frontier and higher elevations south of Lake Ontario. Southeast winds east of Lake Ontario may result in downslope winds on the north side of the Tug Hill early this afternoon. Wind gusts up to 35 mph are possible prior to the frontal passage.

Cold air advection will begin immediately behind the frontal passage today. As rain ends from west to east across western NY, scattered rain showers may linger across the lake plains into early evening.
Showers will end east of Lake Ontario this evening. Dry conditions expected the rest of the night. Cold air advection weakens overnight with 850mb temperatures down to -4C by Saturday morning. It will feel brisk Friday night with lows in the 30s.

The upper level trough will be overhead while an embedded shortwave trough moves across the region Saturday. Cold air aloft and surface heating will result in steepening lapse rates and instability showers will develop from late morning through the afternoon.
Westerly winds will increase with gusts up to 25 to 35 mph Saturday afternoon. It will be chillier than recent days with highs reaching the upper 40s to low 50s, mid 40s across the higher terrain.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Fair uneventful weather will be in place throughout this period...as temperatures will remain several degrees below normal levels. The mundane details...

The deep cyclonic flow that will have been in place for days leading into this period will temporarily give way to a more zonal flow...
while expansive high pressure over the nations mid section will steadily push east across the Great Lakes and Ohio valley. This will all but guarantee fair dry weather for our region...although there will be one 'fly in the ointment' worth keeping an eye on.

A moisture starved cold front will push southwards across our region late Sunday night
Not only will this passage by pcpn free
but the colder air in its wake will only glance the Eastern Lake Ontario region while taking aim on the New England states.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Unlike the previous several days...this bulk of this period is guaranteed to be unsettled and ultimately much chiller...including the potential for some accumulating wet snow.

A robust...Pacific based shortwave will cross the Upper Mississippi valley on Tuesday...while strong frontogensis over the Upper Great Lakes will lead to a wavy sfc frontal boundary that will extend to the southern plains
Meanwhile
high pressure wedged along the Eastern seaboard will be pushed out to sea. The resulting deepening southerly flow between the two systems will start to direct rich GOMEX moisture across the Ohio valley towards the Lower Great Lakes.
While the start of Tuesday will be pcpn free...some rain is expected to work its way into the forecast area during the course of the afternoon and evening. Guidance packages remain at odds though over the amount of phasing that could take place between the aforementioned Pacific based energy within the sub tropical jet and an already established upper level storm system in the vcnty of James Bay
From the 00z guidance
the GFS is a little faster and much more aggressive with phasing than the more trustworthy ECMWF.
This would lead to rain moving in faster on Tuesday with QPF in the vcnty of a quarter inch across the western counties. Will lean on a compromise between the ECMWF and ensemble solution which will yield Tuesday pops ranging from low chc over the Finger lakes and much of the Eastern Lake Ontario region to high likely near Lake Erie.

As the strong shortwave energy digs across the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday night...the wavy frontal boundary will ease across our forecast area. While there will be a near 100% chance for some rain...the amount of phasing and the placement of the last wave along the sfc boundary will determine whether we experience widespread showers or a period of steadier soaking rain. This swath of rain could also be delayed by some six hours if the notably slower ECMWF solution works out...placing the steadiest pcpn over our region late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Will thus 'drag out feet' with the lowering of pops early Wednesday by aiming abv most of the guidance packages.

In the wake of the wavy frontal boundary...colder air will make its way across our region during the second half of Wednesday. As is typically the case...it will be a race between the cold air and the residual low level moisture as to the potential for a little wet snow. Previous guidance packages were more impressed with the potential for a little accumulation...but the models have since backed off with that train of though
In any case
mixed pcpn should be tapering off across our area later Wednesday and Wednesday night with brisk northwest winds and falling temperatures reminding us of the season that is still clearly visible in our rear-view mirrors.

Sfc based high pressure just to our west on Thursday should then promote fair dry weather...although it will be on the chilly side of normal with the mercury struggling to get out of the 40s.

AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Mostly VFR flight conditions are across the region with the exception of MVFR conditions at KART early this morning. A cold front is approaching the region with an area of showers extending from eastern Michigan to western Ohio. Rain showers will enter far western NY after daybreak and move east through the day. Overall, light showers are expected. Steady showers will reach KROC by 16z and KART by 19z.

Flight conditions will deteriorate from west to east, mainly behind the steadier showers today. Mainly low-end MVFR conditions with the exception of IFR at KJHW and a brief period of IFR at KBUF this afternoon. Low confidence in IFR at KBUF at this time. Flight conditions will improve shortly after showers end from west to east late this afternoon through evening.

Southeast winds will continue to increase ahead of the cold front this morning. Winds will veer to the southwest-west behind the cold front with gusts 25 to 35 mph.

Outlook...

Saturday...MVFR/VFR CIGS with a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.
Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with showers becoming likely in the afternoon.

MARINE
A cold front will cross the lower Great Lakes today. South winds will increase ahead of the front this morning, then veer to the southwest and west this afternoon behind the front. Initially, southeast winds will lead to Small Craft Advisory conditions on the east end of Lake Ontario this morning. Waves will mainly be offshore until winds veer to the west this afternoon. Small Craft Conditions will likely be met behind the cold front on the eastern end of Lake Erie including the Upper Niagara River today.

Winds will remain elevated this weekend, with Small Craft Advisory conditions at times on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. The strongest winds will likely be in the afternoon and evening each day.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 9 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight EDT tonight for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 9 PM EDT this evening for LOZ044-045.

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