Thursday, March21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ripley, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 7:34PM Thursday March 21, 2019 6:05 PM EDT (22:05 UTC) Moonrise 7:28PMMoonset 7:02AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ061 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 404 Pm Edt Thu Mar 21 2019
Tonight..West winds 5 to 15 knots. Patchy fog this evening. Isolated rain and snow showers this evening, then scattered snow and rain showers after midnight. Scattered snow showers late. The lake is mostly ice covered.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest and increasing to 30 knots in the afternoon. Scattered snow showers early, then numerous snow showers from late morning on.
Friday night..Northwest winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers.
Saturday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west.
Saturday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of rain showers Sunday night.
Monday..North winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Waves omitted due to the lake being mostly ice covered.
LEZ061 Expires:201903220215;;713392 FZUS61 KCLE 212004 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 404 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A trough averaging 29.70 inches will pull a cold front south across Lake Erie on Friday as low pressure deepens to 29.00 inches off the New England Coast. High pressure 30.40 inches over the upper Great Lakes Friday night will slowly move to the southeastern states through Sunday. A slow moving frontal boundary will settle south across the Great Lakes early Monday. High pressure of 30.50 inches will build southeast out of Canada on Tuesday. LEZ061-169-220215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ripley, NY
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location: 42.48, -79.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 212058
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
458 pm edt Thu mar 21 2019

Synopsis
A complex storm system will bring light rain, changing to higher
elevation snow to eastern areas tonight, and then rain changing to
snow over the remainder of the region tomorrow. Several inches of
snow is expected to accumulate by Friday night across the region,
with greater amounts on hill tops, and significant amounts on the
tug hill plateau. The storm system will end from west to east Friday
night and early Saturday morning with a cold but sunny start to the
weekend.

Near term through Friday night
Regional radars and surface observations display the region mainly
dry late this afternoon, with the only exception across central
new york where an area of rain is beginning to back westward into
the region.

The main story this period will be the development of a
complex surface cyclone and its impacts on our weather.

Headline changes... We will convert the winter storm watch to a
warning for the three counties east of lake ontario. Will start
lewis county tonight, where several inches of snow could accumulate
on the higher terrain, while oswego and jefferson... And especially
the lower elevations will not change over to accumulating snow till
later Friday. We will also issue a winter weather advisory for wayne
and northern cayuga starting 21z Friday.

Late this afternoon, water vapor imagery displays two
shortwaves, one dropping over the ohio valley, with a second,
and closed low, nearing the northern shoreline of lake superior.

At the surface an area of low pressure is advancing northward
along the nc va coastline. The first shortwave and PV intrusion
will continue to deepen the surface low through the night, and
this coastal low will only deepen further Friday as the second
shortwave and deeper PV intrusion arrives. This rapid deepening
to the surface low will increase the gradient wind that will
pull much colder air southward across the eastern great lakes
Friday and Friday night. As the second closed low aloft and its
associated cool pool passes over the region Friday it will
change the entire region's precipitation over to all snow.

For tonight precipitation is expected to expand in coverage as a s-n
oriented LLJ develops near the deepening surface low. This jet will
bring copious amounts of atlantic moisture over eastern mid-atlantic
and new england regions, and convergence ahead of the jet will bring
widespread rain showers across our eastern zones. Dynamic cooling
through the evening hours will push the entire thermal profiles to
at or below freezing resulting in a change over to snow... Likely
across the higher terrain (mainly lewis county). We will have the
highest pops from the finger lakes eastward, while chance pops will
remain in place for areas west of the genesee valley. Overall snow
totals tonight will range 1 to 3 inches on the higher terrain east
of lake ontario.

During the day Friday the deep atlantic moisture over new england
and southern quebec will fold westward back over our region as the
second upper level low drops by our region just to the west. This
abundant moisture in the lower levels, combined with deepening cold
air and increasing low level lapse rates will result in lake
enhanced, and upslope snow showers through the day across wny, and
then shifting eastward to areas east of lake ontario. This second
wave of snow will have greater accumulations than the snow
originating with the initial coastal low and shortwave. Also this
second wave of snow will have higher snow to liquid ratios... And
allow the increasing winds to create blowing snow.

Temperatures aloft at 850 hpa will drop to around -7 to -10c... Not
quite cold enough for pure lake effect snow... But cool enough that
we should still see some enhancement. The moist, northwest flow will
also generate orographic lift snow Friday and into Friday night.

While accumulations will be minor through the first half of
Friday... The deepening cold air and increasing northwest winds will
begin to increase the snow accumulation Friday afternoon across the
higher terrain... And then everywhere by sunset Friday night. This
period of late Friday to Friday night is when the bulk of the snow
for this event will fall.

Winds... Winds tonight will be light across the region, with an
inverted surface trough extending across our eastern zones from the
passing coastal low. Once the surface low passes by our latitude, a
northwest wind will rapidly increase Friday midday through Friday
night. Gusts will generally be 30 to 40 mph, with occasional gusts
to 45 mph along the southern shoreline of lake ontario.

Temperatures... Lows tonight will remain just above freezing for much
of our cwa. The airmass will warm a little Friday morning before the
coastal low passes by to our east, and a much colder airmass invades
the region from the northwest. Temperatures will likely begin to
fall through the afternoon hours, and continue to fall Friday night
with overnight lows in the upper teens across the higher terrain and
lower 20s near the lakes. The combination of winds and temperatures
will make wind chill values drop into the single digits across the
region Friday night.

Short term Saturday through Monday
The upper level pattern early in the weekend will feature a ridge
over the plains with a departing low over the northeast. Overhead
Saturday, there should be fairly rapid drying throughout the
atmospheric profile from west to east, resulting in dry (but breezy)
weather for wny, and snow quickly tapering off east of lake ontario.

By Sunday, a shortwave ridge will be overhead with a corresponding
area of surface high pressure moving east into the mid atlantic
states. A cold but relatively east-west dry cold front will be
approaching from the north, but it shouldn't arrive until after
dark.

Sunday night and Monday, the above noted front should move south
through the region, while a wandering weak system somewhere over the
plains, nearly lost in the upper level prevailing ridge, tries to
gin up some moisture for the front. The 12z GFS and ECMWF runs have
been sparse with precipitation, without enough moisture for much
more than snow showers flurries. Will keep a chance in the forecast
until we get a little more confidence on whether we should trend
higher or lower with any precipitation.

Long term Monday night through Thursday
An upper level ridge will build across the northern rockies and help
push an upper level trough into the canadian maritimes Monday night.

Cold air advection will be taking place across western and north
central ny through Tuesday with 850mb temperatures falling to -15 to
-10c. Although dry, winter-like temperatures are likely Monday night
through Tuesday night. The core of the cold air will retreat into
eastern canada by mid-week while the upper level ridge flattens as
it moves across the great lakes and eastern u.S. Surface high
pressure will persist across the eastern third of the lower 48
through Thursday and dry conditions are likely. A southerly flow
will allow temperatures to climb back to seasonal temperatures for
the last week of march.

Aviation 21z Thursday through Tuesday
Late this afternoon there is mainlyVFR flight conditions in
place across the region, with patchy areas of MVFR cigs. A
deepening surface low off the virginia coastline will spread
atlantic moisture, and eventually rain to our eastern
zones... That will change to snow across the higher tug hill
plateau tonight. This will lower flight conditions to MVFR
towards the east, while western zones will slowly lower to MVFR
tonight and tomorrow as an upper level low and additional
moisture reaches the region from the west. The bulk of falling
precipitation this TAF period will feature all rain showers,
with a change to snow late across kjhw and kart. Flight
conditions by early afternoon tomorrow will predominately range
from ifr to low end MVFR.

Outlook...

Friday afternoon... Lifr to MVFR with rain continuing to change over
to snow.

Friday night... Mainly ifr in snow and low cigs.

Saturday... Early improvement toVFR MVFR with lingering snow showers
to the east tapering off.

Sunday...VFR.

Sunday night and Monday...VFR MVFR with a chance of rain and
snow showers.

Tuesday...VFR.

Marine
A secondary low along the eastern seaboard tonight will rapidly
strengthen tonight and Friday along the new england coastline. The
increase pressure gradient with this system will bring gusty west to
then northwest winds across the lakes Friday and Friday night, with
waves pushing over 4 feet on open waters. Small craft headlines
were issued for most of the waters, starting on Friday and for
some areas lasting into Sunday. High pressure will briefly
build across the region Sunday and Monday with improving
boating conditions.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Winter storm warning from 5 pm Friday to noon edt Saturday for
nyz006-007.

Winter weather advisory from 5 pm Friday to 8 am edt Saturday
for nyz004-005.

Winter storm warning from 2 am Friday to noon edt Saturday for
nyz008.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 11 am Friday to 5 am edt Saturday
for lez040-041.

Small craft advisory from 11 am Friday to 5 am edt
Saturday for loz030.

Small craft advisory from 11 am Friday to 8 am edt Sunday
for loz043-044.

Small craft advisory from 11 am Friday to 11 pm edt
Saturday for loz042.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm Friday to 8 am edt Sunday
for loz045.

Synopsis... Thomas
near term... Apffel thomas
short term... Hsk zaff
long term... Hsk
aviation... Thomas apffel
marine... Apffel thomas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EREP1 25 mi48 min W 4.1 G 7
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 26 mi66 min SW 7 G 8.9 39°F 1010.3 hPa (-0.7)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 45 mi54 min 40°F 1009.7 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.