Monday, May21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ripley, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:51AMSunset 8:42PM Monday May 21, 2018 11:05 AM EDT (15:05 UTC) Moonrise 11:16AMMoonset 12:49AM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ061 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on-the-lake Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 936 Am Edt Mon May 21 2018
This afternoon..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the evening. Showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers Friday night. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ061 Expires:201805212015;;303568 FZUS61 KCLE 211336 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 936 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure 30.30 inches over the Great Lakes will move east towards New England today. Weak low pressure 29.90 inches over the Mississippi Valley will drift east across Lake Erie Tuesday. High pressure 30.10 inches will build across the lake Wednesday into Thursday. Low pressure 29.50 inches will move to the Upper Midwest on Friday. LEZ061-167>169-212015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ripley, NY
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location: 42.48, -79.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 211448
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1048 am edt Mon may 21 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will bring fair weather to the region today with a
good deal of sunshine and light winds. A complex of showers and few
thunderstorms will propagate across western new york tonight, with a
few of these storms potentially bringing heavy rainfall. These
storms will push east across eastern lake ontario region tomorrow,
with additional showers and thunderstorms possible along lake breeze
boundaries tomorrow afternoon.

Near term through Tuesday
Surface high pressure over the central great lakes will bring
pleasant and seasonal conditions along abundant sunshine.

Temperatures should top off in the low to mid 70s.

A shortwave trough over the upper mississippi valley this
morning will advance eastward, rounding a SE ridge of high
pressure tonight. Meanwhile at the surface, a warm front will
be moving across the ohio valley. This shortwave will bring a
cluster of showers and thunderstorms forming within 500 j kg of
elevated instability. A LLJ of 35 knots riding along the front
will enhance precipitation, with an axis of heavy rain possible
along leading edge of the jet, and just to the north of the
surface warm front. Pwats will rise to 2 to 2.5 sd above normal,
with an axis of 1.25 to 1.50 inches crossing wny tonight.

Placement of heavy rain is still uncertain with varying
convective allowing model output, so will blanket wny with a
chance for heavy rain tonight. Overall rainfall amounts will
range from a half to one inch. Localized heavier storms or
training of storms will likely exceed an inch.

Timing... Showers and thunderstorms tonight will likely reach sw
nys around an hour or two before midnight, then across other
sections of wny overnight. Storms should weaken some later in
the night with less instability to the east while crossing the
finger lakes region, and near the eastern lake ontario area
around dawn.

Model consensus has trended north with a convectively driven wave of
low pressure, with this low likely to track from buffalo to
watertown on Tuesday. The forecast reflects this track, however
given the convective nature of this system, minor adjustments to the
track still may be needed. A cold front trailing this low will
drop southward across the western southern tier and into central
new york Tuesday afternoon. This is likely to result in another
round of showers and thunderstorms. There is a marginal risk
for severe with this, with a narrow window of ample instability
and ample winds aloft ahead of the cold front. The lake breeze
may also provide a focus for convection. Otherwise, some
scattered showers may linger into Tuesday afternoon. Highs will
be within a few degrees of 70 across the region.

Short term Tuesday night through Thursday night
After a wet and unsettled day on Tuesday... We can fully expect
significant improvement in our weather as we work through this
period.

A ridge centered over the middle of the country Tuesday night will
amplify and drift east Wednesday and Thursday. After a leftover
shower or two Tuesday evening... This scenario will lead to clearing
skies during the overnight with absolutely beautiful weather to
follow for Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures both days will
average above normal as MAX temps will end up between 75 and 80.

The only potential fly in the ointment will be across parts of the
niagara frontier Wednesday afternoon... As a localized convergence
zone could support some enhanced cloud cover within a few miles of
tonawanda creek. A relatively dry airmass and subsidence inversion
should be enough to preclude the risk for any showers though.

Long term Friday through Sunday
While the start of this period will feature fair weather with
comfortable temperatures and low humidity... Conditions will
deteriorate during the course of the weekend. In fact... Guidance has
been fairly consistent with a scenario where our region could pick
up a significant amount of rain. More on this in a moment.

As we open this period Thursday night and Friday... A flattening
ridge will make its way across the lower great lakes. This will keep
nice weather in place for our region to end the work week as
temperatures will average a few degrees above normal.

A weak warm frontal boundary will extend southeast across our region
Friday night. While this could lead to some showers during the
overnight... There is low confidence with the placement of the
boundary.

A broad area of low pressure over the upper great lakes on Saturday
will push the warm frontal boundary to the north of our region by
afternoon. This will place our region well within a notably warmer
and more humid warm sector where h85 temps in the vcnty of 16c
should easily support highs in the 80s (bit cooler higher terrain
and north country). Being in the warm sector... The vast majority of
the day should be rain free. A shower or two cannot be ruled out
though... Especially in the north country in the vcnty of the exiting
warm front during the morning... And across the southern tier in the
afternoon where the most unstable environment will be in place.

The aforementioned area of low pressure will track to the east to
quebec Saturday night and Sunday... Dragging its associated cold
front across our region in the process. There is a good
representation of ensemble members from the gefs ECMWF that suggest
that this front could contain a few subtle waves... Which would help
to slow its eastward progress through our region. Meanwhile... A
potentially worrisome combination of systems over the sub tropics
(30 n) will pump copious amounts of tropical moisture out of the
eastern gomex. A nearly stationary mid level low near new orleans
and a newly formed bermuda high centered 500 miles east of florida
will establish a deep plume of tropical moisture that will be
directed to the north along the spine of the appalachians. This
moisture will then interact with the aforementioned cold frontal
boundary... The same one that could slow or temporarily stall over
our forecast area.

There is the risk that the timing of the front and arrival of the
tropical moisture could place part of our region in an area of heavy
rain for Sunday Sunday night. Stay tuned.

Aviation 15z Monday through Friday
High pressure today will bringVFR flight conditions with light
winds. A complex of showers and thunderstorms will near the
region tonight... Generally after midnight. Some of this activity
may become heavy with visibilities dropping to ifr.

Outlook...

Tuesday... Areas of MVFR with showers likely and a chance
of thunderstorms.

Wednesday through Friday...VFR.

Marine
High pressure will bring fair weather to the lakes and rivers today,
with light winds and minimal waves on the lakes. An easterly wind
developing tonight ahead of a surface warm front will bring a
moderate chop to the western lake ontario waters... Possibly to near
small craft advisory threshold by early Tuesday morning. These winds
will quickly veer to westerly and diminish Tuesday with another
period of fine boating weather expected through much of the work
week.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Thomas
near term... Apffel thomas zaff
short term... Rsh
long term... Rsh
aviation... Thomas
marine... Thomas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EREP1 25 mi47 min NNE 2.9 G 4.1
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 26 mi65 min NE 13 G 14 50°F 1025 hPa (+0.3)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 45 mi53 min 55°F 1024.9 hPa
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 51 mi65 min NNE 7 G 8 52°F 1024.4 hPa (+1.0)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY31 mi12 minNNE 710.00 miFair60°F45°F58%1024.8 hPa

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7W6SW7SW10W9W10SW8SW7
G15
SW9SW7SW6SW6SW5SW4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E4N9N7
1 day agoS11
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S12S15S8S10S5NW3SE8S8S11S13SW7S13S11W14
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2 days agoN14
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NE12NE11NE13NE7NE8NE8NE8NE5SE8E4E55SE105S9S7
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.