Thursday, January17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ripley, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:43AMSunset 5:17PM Thursday January 17, 2019 12:25 PM EST (17:25 UTC) Moonrise 2:00PMMoonset 3:51AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ061 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 928 Am Est Thu Jan 17 2019
This afternoon..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A slight chance of snow late. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of snow early, then snow from late evening on. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast. A chance of snow overnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots increasing to 30 knots. Snow. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Sunday..North winds 15 to 25 knots. Snow showers during the day, then a chance of snow showers Sunday night. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Monday..North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 5 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
LEZ061 Expires:201901172115;;494267 FZUS61 KCLE 171428 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 928 AM EST Thu Jan 17 2019 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure 30.40 inches over southern Quebec well drift east today. Weak low pressure 29.90 inches will move across lake Erie Thursday night with a cold front crossing the lake. A second cold front will follow on Friday. Saturday deep low pressure 29.40 inches will move northeastward near or just to the south of the Ohio River Valley reaching the Middle Atlantic Coast by Sunday morning. High pressure 30.40 inches will build across the lake on Monday. LEZ061-169-172115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ripley, NY
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location: 42.48, -79.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 171133
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
633 am est Thu jan 17 2019

Synopsis
A cold and quiet start to the day will have morning sunshine
replaced by increasing cloud cover from the west. A deepening storm
system will pass by our region tonight, spreading occasional light
snow across the region that will amount to an inch or two. A
significant storm will then impact the region over the weekend with
the potential for heavy snow, significant blowing and drifting snow
to be followed by bitterly cold wind chills and areas of lake effect
snow.

Near term through Friday
A few lake effect clouds continue to linger near lake ontario
this morning, with a flurry before daybreak along the southern
lake ontario shoreline. Drier air pushed across the lakes by a
surface high pressure that is centered near lake ontario will
erode the remaining lake clouds this morning. Otherwise it will
be a seasonably cold start to the day with areas of sunshine
outside of these lake clouds.

Later today a storm system will form across the ohio valley,
deepened by a shortwave trough that will sharpen the upper level
trough over the northeast. Ahead of this surface low clouds in the
mid levels will begin to increase through the day.

The falling heights aloft, coupled with the surface low and its'
associated moisture passing over the eastern great lakes will bring
occasional light snow to our region... Beginning during the early
evening hours across the western southern tier.

Light snow, may become enhanced to the northeast of the great lakes,
late tonight off lake erie and Friday morning off lake ontario. Even
so, snowfall totals will range between an inch or two across much of
the region from this little storm system.

Warming through the mid levels tonight, combined with an overcast
sky through the night will limit the amount of overnight cooling,
with many areas remaining within 5 degrees of their daytime high.

This surface low will push a cold front across the eastern great
lakes region Friday morning.

Behind the surface low, cold air advection will lower temperatures
in the boundary layer enough to bring back some light lake effect
snow... Falling to the south and southeast of the great lakes
tomorrow afternoon. This light snow is not expected to amount to
much, generally a few tenths through the afternoon hours on top of
the synoptic snows.

Short term Friday night through Sunday night
On Friday night, high pressure will pass to our north which
will result in mostly dry conditions across the region. A
northerly flow will support some lake effect clouds or light
snow showers south of the lakes, but the air mass will be dry
with little if any accumulation.

A major winter storm with significant impacts this weekend...

low pressure centered near western kentucky on Saturday will track
into virginia Saturday night. This system will then intensify along
the southern new england coastline on Sunday as it phases with a
northern branch shortwave. The low will then strengthen to about
985 mb as it moves across nova scotia on Sunday night.

Despite the rather distant track of the surface low, a broad shield
of mid-level warm air advection will spread ahead of the system
Saturday and intensify Saturday night. The surface flow will shift
from NE to NW on Sunday, with 850mb temperatures falling to around -
25c. Steady synoptic snows will taper from west to east, but will be
replaced by lake effect and upslope enhanced snows south of the
lakes. Ample moisture should remain in place through Sunday night
when the passage of a mid-level trough. This trough will exit to the
east on Monday, with drier air diminishing lake effect snowfall
rates.

Model guidance is in good agreement considering the timeframe, but
there remains uncertainty in the track of the low. The main
challenge is exactly how quickly the southern branch system phases
with the northern branch. 00z guidance has come into better
agreement with model differences diminishing considerably. There is
now doubt this will be all snow in our area, with increasing
confidence that accumulations will be significant. It appears the
only way this storm can 'miss' is with a slower phasing and more
southerly track which appears unlikely but still possible. Based on
this, forecast confidence still supports watch headlines.

The impacts of this system can be divided into two parts. The first
is the synoptic snowfall which will start on Saturday and last
through Sunday morning. Initially, snowfall rates will be modest on
Saturday with just a general area of light snow spreading from
southwest to northeast across the region. The heaviest snow will be
Saturday night into Sunday with significant accumulation likely
across the entire region. In addition, winds will increase with
gusts to 30 mph resulting in areas of blowing snow along with cold
temperatures in the teens and single digits.

Synoptic snows will transition to lake effect snow Sunday afternoon
with a northerly flow supporting lake effect snow south of the lakes
through Monday. Snow will be more localized, but very small
snowflakes will lower visibility effectively. In addition, gusty
winds will result in areas of blowing snow, especially during the
day on Sunday. Dangerously cold wind chills are likely, dropping to
15 to 25 below zero for most areas and perhaps as cold as 30 to 40
below zero for the north country. Travel conditions will improve
modestly late Sunday night and Monday, but it will still be very
cold with high temperatures only in the single digits on Monday.

Snowfall amounts are difficult to pin down this far off. In general
terms, there is a potential for greater than 7 inches of snow across
the entire region. The greatest amounts are likely to be across the
western finger lakes lower genesee valley, which includes the city
of rochester. This is because of lake and upslope enhancement from
the northerly flow. Although some locations may get more than a foot
of snow, it is important to note that bitterly cold wind chills and
blowing snow will be a significant part of the impact of this storm.

Long term Monday through Wednesday
Significant spread in long range model solutions exists for the
midweek time frame. Signal is there for recovery of temperatures to
closer to normal values as the arctic air departs Tuesday into
Wednesday, but the development of a trough in the central CONUS is
causing some issue. The GFS and euro both advertise low pressure
developing and moving up the ohio valley into the eastern great
lakes, while the canadian has a clipper-type low swinging through
the region. Timing differences also exist between each solution, but
the Wednesday time period currently appears to be the best timing
for the arrival of precipitation from this system. Some warmer air
gets pushed northward toward the region on the southern end of the
precipitation shield but for now will keep the precipitation type as
all snow until more consensus in guidance is achieved in the coming
days.

Aviation 12z Thursday through Monday
For the 12z tafs, lake effect MVFR-based clouds linger south of
lake ontario, and these should continue to thin as surface high
pressure to the west funnels drier air across the lakes. Mid
level clouds will continue to increase through the day, with the
next system and it's lower deck of clouds and snow likely to
arrive early evening to the far west. This system will pass
across the region with occasional ifr flight conditions within
snow.

Outlook...

Friday morning... Areas of ifr in periods of light snow.

Friday afternoon and night...VFR MVFR with a chance of snow showers.

Saturday..Deterioration to ifr with widespread snow developing.

Saturday night and Sunday... Widespread ifr in heavy snow.

Monday... Local ifr in lake effect snow showers southeast of the
lakes.

Marine
High pressure just to the west of the lakes, has now brought much
lighter winds and minimal waves to the lakes this early morning.

These quiet conditions are expected to continue through Thursday
night with warming aloft ahead of a storm system that will bring
some light snow. Behind this system, winds and waves will increase
Friday night with small craft advisory conditions possible, mainly
on lake ontario. A strong storm system will pass by just to the
south of the lakes this weekend, with strong east winds backing to
northwest through the weekend and into next week with high end small
craft conditions expected.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Winter storm watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
afternoon for nyz001>008-010>014-019>021-085.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Thomas
near term... Thomas
short term... Apffel
long term... Tma
aviation... Thomas
marine... Thomas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EREP1 25 mi37 min NE 2.9 G 4.1
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 26 mi25 min ENE 5.1 G 7 22°F 1025.1 hPa (-2.8)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 45 mi43 min 22°F 1024.8 hPa
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 51 mi35 min SE 4.1 G 6 26°F 1023 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY31 mi32 minNE 510.00 miA Few Clouds23°F12°F63%1025.3 hPa

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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NW10NW7NW9NW8NW9N6CalmCalmSE4SW3CalmE3E4CalmE4CalmSE6SE6E4NE5
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2 days ago5NW7SW7W5SW7SW7W8W9W7SW7S6S6S7SW8SW7SW9S7S9S9S10S10S11S9S9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.