Monday, September25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ripley, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 7:12PM Monday September 25, 2017 1:11 PM EDT (17:11 UTC) Moonrise 11:25AMMoonset 9:34PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ061 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on-the-lake Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 914 Am Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
This afternoon..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..East winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..South winds less than 10 knots becoming northwest. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..East winds less than 10 knots becoming southwest. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less building to 1 to 3 feet.
LEZ061 Expires:201709252015;;909697 FZUS61 KCLE 251314 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 914 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure 30.10 inches over the eastern Great Lakes will weaken Tuesday into Wednesday. A cold front will cross Lake Erie on Wednesday. Weak high pressure 30.00 inches will build east across the lake on Thursday. A stronger cold front will cross the lake on Friday. LEZ061-162>169-252015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ripley, NY
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location: 42.48, -79.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1020 am edt Mon sep 25 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will keep dry weather and midsummerlike warmth across
our region through most of Wednesday. An approaching cold front may
finally bring a chance of a few light showers late Wednesday and
Wednesday night... With much cooler temperatures then following for
Thursday through next weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 1020 am the southern tier valley fog is rapidly
dissipating per regional satellite imagery... With its remnants
likely to be gone shortly and thus of no consequence to the
forecast for the rest of the day.

Otherwise strong ridging will remain intact across our region at all
levels today... And will provide our area with continued fair dry
weather and a good deal of sunshine. In terms of cloud cover... Just
some thin high cirrus will push across the area from southwest to
northeast... With some scattered diurnal cumulus also developing
across the higher terrain of the southern tier this afternoon in
conjunction with a weak easterly low level flow and consequent
subtle increase in atlantic-based moisture. The big story however
will continue to be the midsummerlike heat... With 850 mb temps of
+19c to +20c supporting widespread upper 80s to lower 90s across the
lower elevations... With slightly cooler readings across the higher
terrain and along the immediate lakeshores. Record highs for today
were all set in 2007 and are 87 in buffalo... 92 in rochester... And
89 in watertown... With the buffalo record still looking to be the
most in jeopardy at this time.

High pressure remains in place tonight. Diurnal cumulus will
dissipate this evening across the western southern tier, with a
continued slow increase in high thin cirrus clouds. Temperatures
will be very mild given the now humid airmass, with lows in the
upper 60s on the lake plains and lower 60s across the interior
southern tier and lewis county. Expect more river valley fog across
the western southern tier late tonight, with patchy lighter fog
elsewhere.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
The region will remain underneath ridging at the surface and aloft
to begin the period. This will maintain the dry weather pattern with
much above normal temperatures. 850 mb temperatures will be around
+18c Tuesday, supporting another day of unseasonably hot
temperatures with most highs generally in the mid to upper 80s, with
a few spots making another run at the 90 degree mark. The warmest
readings are expected across inland areas away from local lake
breeze circulations.

Ridging will weaken Wednesday as a shortwave passes to our north.

This will push a weak cold front across the region Wednesday
afternoon and evening. This timing reflects the slightly consensus
of 00z guidance. Model guidance continues to show limited moisture
with the front with the best dynamic forcing well to our north.

Expect a few showers with the front Wednesday afternoon and evening,
but these will be scattered in nature with many areas likely to
dodge this small chance of rain.

Temperatures will still be well above normal on Wednesday, with the
front not crossing until late in the day. Even with its passage, the
'cold' front will struggle to lower temperatures to normal.

Temperatures will again climb into the 80s in most areas Wednesday.

Cooler temperatures in buffalo will be due to the increasing
southwesterly flow which will enhance the lake breeze, but even so
the airport will probably reach the 80 degree mark. Temperatures
will gradually cool Wednesday evening with lows in the 50s Wednesday
night, which is still several degrees above normal for late
september.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
Our stretch of summer-like weather comes to an end on Thursday
behind a cold front. Temperatures are forecast to fall back to more
typical levels for this new fall season lasting through next
weekend. The front is forecast to be east of western and north-
central ny by Thursday morning and is what will help to steer
hurricane maria away from the east coast. A ridge of high pressure
will shift over our region with any lingering showers east of lake
ontario coming to an end leaving dry and much cooler conditons
settling in through the day.

A much sharper longwave trough axis and secondary surface cold front
is shown in the models to drop across our region Friday or Friday
night. This will bring a chance of rain showers and another shot of
cold air advection. 00z guidance has trended a bit stronger with
this shortwave, supporting slightly higher chances for showers and
slightly cooler temperatures behind the front. 850mb temps could
drop to or a few degrees below zero c Friday night or Saturday night
with a north to northwesterly flow over the lakes. Expect this
airmass to contribute to some lake enhancement behind the cold front
with a chance of showers south of the lakes Friday night into
Saturday.

High temperatures will generally be in the lower to mid 60s
throughout the period, except Saturday which will be a bit cooler
with highs around 60. Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s,
with the typically cooler interior valleys and north country dipping
into the 30s Saturday night.

Aviation 15z Monday through Friday
As of 1420z the bulk of any early morning fog has largely
dissipated... With any remaining patchy southern tier valley fog
likely to be gone shortly. For the balance of the day... High
pressure will provide widespreadVFR conditions... With nothing
more than some thin high cirrus, and perhaps some afternoon
diurnal cumulus across the higher terrain of the southern tier.

Mainly clear skies and light winds will again allow fog to develop
late tonight with patchy MVFR to ifr vsby across much of the region,
and more concentrated ifr fog in the river valleys of the western
southern tier.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR - except local ifr MVFR conditions in
southern tier valley fog during the morning.

Wednesday through Friday... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers late
Wednesday afternoon, Wednesday night, and again on Friday.

Marine
High pressure will remain in place across the lower great lakes
right through Wednesday morning. This will provide a long stretch of
very light winds and flat wave action with ideal boating conditions,
but not much wind for sailing.

A cold front will cross the region late Wednesday. Northwest winds
will increase in the wake of the cold front, and may bring a round
of small craft advisory conditions to lakes erie and ontario late
Wednesday through Thursday.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Hitchcock jjr
near term... Hitchcock jjr
short term... Apffel tma
long term... Apffel smith
aviation... Hitchcock jjr
marine... Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EREP1 25 mi42 min ENE 8 G 8.9
45167 25 mi53 min ENE 5.8 G 7.8 75°F 76°F
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 26 mi72 min N 2.9 G 5.1 75°F 1019.2 hPa (+0.0)
45142 - Port Colborne 35 mi72 min NE 3.9 G 3.9 74°F 74°F1018.8 hPa (-0.4)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 45 mi42 min 79°F 1018.9 hPa
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 51 mi72 min NNE 5.1 G 6 79°F 1018.6 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY31 mi19 minESE 910.00 miFair87°F64°F48%1018.4 hPa

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Last 24hrN5N6N5N4NE4CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE7SE9E8SE9
1 day agoNW6SW3NW53SW3CalmS3CalmS4S4S4S4S3S3CalmS3S3S3SE3CalmCalmNW4NW3NW6
2 days agoN8N8NE7NE4NE3CalmS3CalmCalmS3CalmS4S6S4S4CalmCalmCalmS3S4SW3S3CalmNW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.