Saturday, November18, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Ripley, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 4:57PM Saturday November 18, 2017 3:28 AM EST (08:28 UTC) Moonrise 7:06AMMoonset 5:29PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ061 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on-the-lake Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 910 Pm Est Fri Nov 17 2017
.gale warning in effect from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..South winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms late. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Saturday..South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 4 to 7 feet.
Saturday night..West winds to 30 knots becoming northwest and increasing to 40 knot gales overnight. Showers. Waves 5 to 8 feet building to 10 to 14 feet.
Sunday..Northwest gales to 35 knots diminishing to 30 knots. Rain showers likely with a chance of snow showers in the morning, then a chance of rain and snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 9 to 12 feet subsiding to 6 to 10 feet.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. A chance of snow and rain showers. Waves 5 to 8 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. A chance of rain and snow showers during the day. Waves 5 to 8 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds to 30 knots becoming west 15 to 25 knots. A chance of rain showers Tuesday night. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ061 Expires:201711180915;;571425 FZUS61 KCLE 180210 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 910 PM EST Fri Nov 17 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure 30.30 inches will move off the East Coast tonight. Low pressure 29.40 inches over the Plains States will deepen to 29.00 inches as it crosses the eastern Great Lakes Saturday night and Quebec on Sunday. The associated cold front will sweep across Lake Erie Saturday evening. High pressure 30.20 inches will cross the lower Ohio Valley Monday night. The next cold front will drop across Lake Erie late Tuesday. LEZ061-165>169-180915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ripley, NY
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location: 42.48, -79.85     debug

Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 180645
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
145 am est Sat nov 18 2017

A strengthening storm system approaching from the mid western states
will generate occasional rain across our region on Saturday... Then a
strong cold front will plow across the lower great lakes to produce
widespread mixed precipitation Saturday night. Gusty winds in the
wake of the powerful front will introduce a notably colder airmass
into the area for the second half of the weekend. This december like
airmass will generate accumulating snows southeast of both lakes
into Monday.

Near term through today
High pressure will slide to our east while the an area of low
pressure begins to strengthen while tracking to near saint louis. A
warm front ahead of this storm will shift into the ohio valley. Much
of our area can expect fair dry weather to prevail for most of the
overnight although under widespread mid and high cloud cover ahead
of this system. Towards daybreak... Moisture transport and lift
brought on by a low level jet oriented with the warm front... Will;
produce rain for far western new york.

Expect that surface temps will be above freezing for nearly all
locations before the rain arrives early this morning.

Regarding the freezing rain threat east of lake ontario on
Saturday am... Precipitation should hold off long enough for
temperatures to rise above freezing while the lower airmass
slowly saturates. With this in mind, have backed off the
freezing rain threat except for over lewis county. May have to
wait until Saturday before it becomes obvious for or against a
freezing rain threat. Any threat would be short-lived and last
at most an hour or so.

Later today (Saturday)... Model consensus tracks the feature surface
low across illinois indiana to near or just north of lake erie while
deepening to the vicinity of 990mb. Strengthening southerly flow
ahead of this will promote rising surface temperatures and
widespread rain spreading from western into central new york. 850mb
temps increasing to between +3c (north country) and +8c (western
sotier) would normally support high temps pushing into the 60s but
with widespread rain, expect that evaporational cooling will only
support a high of low 50s in wny and mid 40s in the north country.

Pwats of between 0.75 and 1 inch is a slight positive anomaly for
this time of year with model consensus QPF yielding a healthy 0.75-1
inch for wny with 0.25 to 0.5 inch across cny through 7pm Saturday.

Rainfall will probably come in several waves, with the first
arriving in the am, possibly followed by a break for a several hours
during the midday.

Heavier periods of rain will then arrive later Saturday afternoon in
the western southern tier where the low level jet strengthens ahead
of an approaching cold front. Winds will not be gusty through the
day as warm advection keeps the higher winds aloft from mixing down.

Short term tonight through Monday night
Winter headlines may be needed during this period, as a
transition to accumulating lake snows takes place southeast of
both lakes.

Deepening surface low pressure is expected to track just to the
north of the region Saturday night, which will swing a powerful
cold front through the area. Deepening cold air behind the cold
front will set the stage for some mixed lake effect precipitation
east of both lakes. There could even be a coating of wet snow
along the boston hills and chautauqua ridge and tug hill region.

Winds will ramp up within the cold air advection pattern, especially
Sunday. Momentum transfer profiles suggesting 45 to 55 mph wind
gusts at best, with the highest wind gust potential confined to the
immediate shorelines of lake erie and lake ontario.

A cold cyclonic flow of air will continue across the lower great
lakes Sunday into Monday. This will set the stage for lake
effect snows southeast of the lakes in a northwest flow regime.

Over-lake instability certainly looks outstanding with profiles
suggesting moderate to extreme instability developing with lake
induced capes over 500 j kg and inversion heights very
respectable. However, the synoptic moisture fields are far from
outstanding with omega displaced below favorable dendritic
growth zone combined with less than ideal shear profiles all
would suggest this lake effect event likely be a plowable, but
not significant snowfall from the southern tug hill over to
east of rochester off lake ontario and the chautauqua ridge and
boston hills off lake erie.

Lake effect snows will begin to diminish off of both lakes Monday
in response to a ridge of high pressure quickly building in
across the lower great lakes, which will effectively limit
synoptic moisture and lower the capping inversion. As the ridge
builds in, the steering flow will slowly pivot the weakening
snow bands northward toward buffalo and into the tug hill before
ending by Monday evening.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
A shortwave trough will dip across the eastern great lakes region
this period, with several additional shortwaves maintaining a deeper
long wave trough over the region through the holiday.

Sunshine Tuesday will fade through the day as a cold front nears the
region... With the cold front bringing a mix of rain and snow Tuesday
night, changing to all snow later Tuesday night and Wednesday as
deeper colder air (-10c 850 hpa) builds over the eastern great
lakes. This colder air will generate lake instability with details
of how much moisture and wind direction to still be resolved
relating to lake effect snow potential for Wednesday-Thursday.

Another frontal boundary will likely dip southward from canada
Friday... Maintain chances for snow, especially across lake ontario
and points eastward which at this time will be closer to the frontal

Temperatures Tuesday will be above normal... But expect at or below
normal temperatures the remainder of the forecast period.

Aviation 07z Saturday through Wednesday
WhileVFR conditions will remain intact across all of western and
north central new york through daybreak... An approaching storm
system over the mid western states will result in deteriorating
conditons after 10z with the leading edge of rain making it into the
far western counties by daybreak.

The concern through daybreak though will be low level wind shear
over the western counties... Including the kbuf... Kiag... Kjhw and
kroc TAF sites. While sfc winds will be relatively light from the
southeast... Winds as low as 1500 ft will be from the south-southwest
at 40 to 45 knots.

After daybreak today... A swath of rain will cross our region ahead
of a warm front. CIGS will eventually drop to MVFR levels
regionwide... With ifr CIGS expected over the southern tier and
portions of the finger lakes region. This would mainly impact sites
such as kjhw and kelz.

Ifr CIGS are forecast to become a little more widespread Saturday
night... Otherwise MVFR CIGS with rain can be anticipated. The rain
will taper off to mixed rain and snow showers late Saturday night...

except east of lake erie where the mixed precipitation will
transition to heavier lake effect.


Sunday-Monday... Lake effect sn, ifr SE of lakes, otherwiseVFR MVFR.

Tuesday... MainlyVFR. Wednesday... Rain and snow showers with a
chance of MVFR ifr.

A deepening storm system over the mid western states will approach
the lower great lakes today (Saturday)... And this will result in
freshening southerly winds. While winds will approach small craft
advisory criteria... The highest waves will be directed into canadian

The real problem during this forecast package will be the strong
winds that will follow the strengthening storm system as it exits to
our north and east late tonight (sat night) and Sunday. Winds
veering to the west and northwest in the wake of the storm will
increase to gale force late tonight through Sunday. Gale warnings
will remain in place.

These very strong winds will only marginally subside Sunday night
and Monday... As expansive high pressure over the southern states will
make its way off the southeast coast.

Tides coastal flooding
Developing very strong onshore winds will build significant wave
action from late tonight into Sunday night along the lake
ontario shoreline. The combination of already higher lake levels
and continued wave action will result in increased shoreline
erosion, especially where the lakeshore is already unstable from
erosion earlier in the year.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Lakeshore flood watch from late tonight through late Sunday
night for nyz001>007.

Marine... Gale warning from 10 pm this evening to 7 pm est Sunday for

Gale warning from 1 am to 10 pm est Sunday for

Synopsis... Rsh
near term... Rsh zaff
short term... Tma
long term... Thomas
aviation... Rsh
marine... Rsh
tides coastal flooding... Tma

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 26 mi28 min SSE 16 G 23 45°F 1006.1 hPa (-5.5)
45142 - Port Colborne 35 mi88 min S 18 G 21 47°F 50°F2 ft1006.8 hPa (-5.1)
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 51 mi28 min SW 13 G 18 47°F 1006.8 hPa (-2.3)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY31 mi35 minS 22 G 2810.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy47°F24°F41%1006.7 hPa

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNW11
1 day agoW13
2 days agoS4S7SE5CalmCalmN433CalmSW3S9S7S9S16

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.