Wednesday, May23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dunkirk, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:46AMSunset 8:40PM Wednesday May 23, 2018 6:13 PM EDT (22:13 UTC) Moonrise 1:31PMMoonset 1:59AM Illumination 66% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ061 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on-the-lake Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 342 Pm Edt Wed May 23 2018
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Patchy fog this evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..South winds 10 knots or less. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday night..South winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots diminishing to less than 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves building to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day. Waves subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ061 Expires:201805240215;;417967 FZUS61 KCLE 231942 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 342 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure 30.20 inches inches, centered over Lake Michigan, will move east across the Lower Lakes and move off the Mid Atlantic Coast Friday. Low pressure 29.90 inches will move east across the northern Lakes late Saturday, forcing a cold front across Lake Erie by Saturday night into Sunday morning. LEZ061-164>169-240215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dunkirk, NY
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location: 42.49, -79.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 232050
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
450 pm edt Wed may 23 2018

Synopsis
Spectacular weather will be found across all of western and north
central new york for the remainder of the work week... As a large
area of high pressure will slowly drift across the lower great
lakes. Temperatures will climb above normal in the process... With
daytime highs in the 80s Friday and Saturday. Our next chance for
rain will be later this weekend when there could be a few showers or
thunderstorms.

Near term through Thursday
Clear starlit skies will be in place tonight... As canadian high
pressure will drift over the region from the upper great lakes. The
exceptions will be in the immediate buffalo area where some lake
induced fog and stratus off lake erie could extend far enough inland
to shroud the skies... And in the valleys of the southern tier late
to night where valley fog will produce a beautiful dendritic fog
pattern by daybreak. Meanwhile... Temperatures will be on the cool
side of normal with mins ranging from the lower 50s along the lake
shores to the lower 40s across parts of the north country and in the
coolest SRN tier valleys.

Thursday will then absolutely spectacular. High pressure will slowly
push away from the region... While it a dry airmass and plenty of
subsidence will guarantee Sun filled skies and light winds. After a
cool morning... H85 temps rising the around 12c will support
afternoon highs of 75 to 80. It will be a few degrees cooler across
the eastern lake ontario region.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday night
Perfect weather will be in place across our region during the
majority of this period as a deamplifying ridge will cross the lower
great lakes. Initially... This will result in clear skies and
comfortable temperatures. As we work our way into the weekend
though... The controlling canadian surface high will drift to
our southeast off the mid atlantic coast. The clockwise circulation
around this fair weather feature will usher in a warmer and notably
more humid airmass... One that will support scattered shower and
thunderstorm activity... Particularly as we get deeper into the
weekend.

Temperatures will average well above normal during this forty eight
hour period... Especially during the day when the mercury will climb
into the low to mid 80s. Mins will range from the mid 50s Thursday
night to the low to mid 60s Saturday night.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
An upper level trough will shift southeast across the upper great
lakes and into new england from Sunday morning through Monday
evening, while at the same time a stationary boundary will be in
place over the area. This stationary boundary will provide a path
for a weak surface low to trek along, and combined with an increased
moist airmass and increasing cape, precip chances will continue for
Sunday and Monday. CAPE values for Sunday approaching 1500+ j kg for
areas from the western southern tier to the central ny area. Cape
values for Monday not as high, but still 1000+ j kg for areas in the
n. Finger lakes. Precipitable water for Sunday Monday will be around
1.30 inches, which is around a half inch above the average
climatology for these two days in may. With the combination of the
stationary front, moisture and cape, showers and thunderstorms look
likely as of now for Sunday through Monday.

Monday night into Tuesday morning a cold front will cross the area
and an area of high pressure will start to move into the region from
central ontario and the northern great lakes. The center of the high
pressure will be just north of lake ontario by Tuesday night, and
will slide southeast towards the new england coast on Wednesday.

Tuesday through Wednesday look dry for the most part as this area of
high pressure provides tranquil weather for the region. Pw values
will decrease on Tuesday into Tuesday night and slowly increase as
the area of high pressure shifts to the east allowing for the next
influx of moisture later in the week.

High temperatures for all four days will generally be in the upper
70s to the low 80s. Low temperatures will range from the upper 50s
to lower 60s Sunday night through Wednesday night. Both high and low
temperatures will be around 10 degrees above normal compared to late
may averages.

Aviation 21z Wednesday through Monday
Canadian high pressure drifting southeast from the upper great lakes
will supply fairVFR conditions across the majority of our region
tonight. The exceptions will be in the southern tier late
tonight where valley fog will result in areas of ifr conditions.

There is also the possibility that fog off lake erie will reach
the buffalo terminal, but the fog bank on laker erie has
dissipated considerably late afternoon which lowers the chances
for this happening.

Vfr weather with light winds will be found over western and north
central new york on Thursday... As high pressure will be centered
over the region.

Outlook...

Thursday night and Friday...VFR.

Saturday... MainlyVFR. A chance of showers.

Sunday... MVFR. Showers likely.

Monday...VFR with scattered showers.

Marine
High pressure centered over the upper great lakes at midday will
slowly drift southeast across the lower great lakes tonight and
Thursday. While this will initially generate moderate breezes on
lakes erie and ontario this afternoon... Winds will drop off
significantly tonight and Thursday as the core of the high drifts
through the region. Any choppiness from the moderate breezes will
drop off as well so that negligible waves can be expected through
Thursday.

The area of high pressure will move off the east coast Thursday
night and Friday. This will support gentle to occasionally moderate
southwesterlies into the upcoming weekend with insignificant waves.

As we push through the upcoming weekend... The risk for scattered
thunderstorms will increase.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Rsh
near term... Rsh
short term... Rsh
long term... Sw
aviation... Apffel rsh
marine... Rsh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 2 mi73 min SW 14 G 16 53°F 1020.5 hPa (+0.0)
45142 - Port Colborne 17 mi73 min WSW 14 G 16 50°F 48°F2 ft1019.7 hPa (-0.1)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 20 mi43 min 51°F 1020 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 35 mi43 min SSW 7 G 8 51°F 1020.5 hPa45°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 44 mi43 min 63°F 1019.5 hPa
EREP1 47 mi43 min WSW 8 G 15

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY3 mi20 minWSW 10 G 1910.00 miFair62°F52°F70%1020.4 hPa

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5SW5W6SW9W5W6SW5SW4SW7SW8SW75W5SW7SW8SW6W8SW13SW14W10W10W10SW10SW10
G19
1 day agoNE5NE4NE3NE4CalmSE3SE5E94S7S8S8S9S8SW8SW8SW5SW6SW8SW13
G18
W8SW8SW7SW6
2 days agoSW7
G15
SW9SW7SW6SW6SW5SW4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E4N9N7N8N8N10N7N7NE5NE7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.