Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dunkirk, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 7:39PM Monday March 27, 2017 12:48 AM EDT (04:48 UTC) Moonrise 6:05AMMoonset 6:17PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ061 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 953 Pm Edt Sun Mar 26 2017
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers in the morning. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday night..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming east. A chance of showers in the evening. Showers likely overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming north 5 to 15 knots. Rain showers likely in the morning...then a chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north. A chance of rain showers in the evening. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LEZ061 Expires:201703270815;;133749 FZUS61 KCLE 270153 GLFLE OPEN LAKE FORECAST FOR LAKE ERIE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 953 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE ERIE .SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF LAKE ERIE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE OF 29.80 INCHES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...29.80 INCHES...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE LOW PASSES OFF TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.60 INCHES CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ERIE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW OF 29.50 INCHES APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LEZ061-168-169-270815-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dunkirk, NY
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location: 42.49, -79.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 270224
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1024 pm edt Sun mar 26 2017

Synopsis
Weak low pressure will move northeast across the great lakes
overnight bringing occasional showers to our region... Along with a
few embedded thunderstorms to the southern tier. The showers will
then diminish from west to east on Monday... With mild temperatures
otherwise continuing. Another low will move through the region
on Tuesday... With drier and cooler weather then following for
Wednesday and Thursday... Before unsettled weather returns on
Friday and continues through Saturday.

Near term /through Monday/
Weak low pressure over southern lake michigan will make its way
northeastward across the central great lakes overnight... With the
broad warm air advection regime out ahead of the low and a couple
of shortwave impulses/attendant weak surface troughs conspiring
to spread occasional showers across our region from southwest to
northeast. A few embedded thunderstorms will also be possible
across the southern tier owing to the presence of some weak elevated
instability... Though any winds from these and a developing 40-45 knot
low level jet will be confined to areas above the surface... Thanks to
a strong inversion situated between 1 and 2 kft. Temperature-wise...

expect a rather warm night by late march standards... With lows ranging
from the mid to upper 30s across the eastern lake ontario region to
the mid and upper 40s across most areas south of lake ontario.

On Monday the low will continue tracking northeastward into quebec
province... With drier air and subsidence working across the region
following the passage of one final shortwave and its associated weak
surface trough. This will result in showers steadily diminishing
from west to east as the day progresses... Allowing for a mainly dry
afternoon from about the genesee valley westward. With little to no
change in airmass expected... Temperatures should again climb into the
50s across most areas... While touching or breaching the 60f mark again
across favored downslope flow regions south of lake ontario.

Short term /Monday night through Tuesday night/
While initially dry Monday evening, as a narrow ridge of high
pressure moves across the region, late Monday night into Tuesday
morning will see increasing coverage of rain showers as an open
trough tracks through ohio valley to off the northeast coast by
Tuesday afternoon. This will result in a few hours of showers moving
across the region, with a drying trend from west to east across the
region by Tuesday afternoon. Increased pops to categorical, with
most all locations picking some light rain on Tuesday, however it is
important to stress that Tuesday looks to be far from a washout,
with plenty of dry time as showers taper off. Highs on Tuesday will
range from the upper 40s in the north country to the upper 50s in
the southern tier as cooler air moves in from the north behind the
trough passage.

Tuesday night through Thursday will finally bring a stretch of dry
weather to region as a sprawling high pressure system builds in
across the great lakes. Temperatures will moderate to near seasonal
normals, with highs mainly in the 40s and low in the 20s/30s.

Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/
The pattern will become more active again by the end of the week
after a few dry days. A mid level closed low will meander across the
four corners region during the first half of the week, then eject
ene across the central plains to the ohio valley by Friday.

Increasing warm advection and moisture transport ahead of this
trough will bring a chance of a few showers Thursday night mainly in
western ny. Rain chances will then increase Friday and Friday night
as the deep mid level trough and associated surface low cross the
region. The system will be filling with time, which generally keeps
forcing and moisture transport on the weaker side which will in
turn keep rain amounts relatively modest.

This system will slowly pull out next weekend, with a few scattered
showers lingering into Saturday as the trough and surface low move
to the east coast, with northwest flow and wrap around moisture
hanging back across the lower great lakes. Moisture and rain chances
should diminish by Sunday as the trough moves well off the eastern
seaboard.

Temperatures will likely run a little above average through the
period, with highs generally in the low to mid 50s and lows in the
30s.

Aviation /03z Monday through Friday/
Low pressure will track from the chicago area northeastward across
the central great lakes overnight. In the process this system will
spread occasional showers across our area from west to east... With
a few embedded thunderstorms also becoming possible across the
southern tier. Expect flight conditions to largely be in the ifr
to MVFR range across the eastern lake ontario region and the higher
terrain of the southern tier and finger lakes regions... While a
general southerly flow should help to largely maintainVFR conditions
across the lake plains south of lake ontario... Except for brief
reductions to MVFR/ifr within any showers.

On Monday the surface low will make its way northeastward into
quebec province... With showers consequently diminishing from west
to east across the area. Expect a mix of ifr/MVFR conditions at the
start of the day to gradually improve to MVFR/vfr over time.

Outlook...

Monday night...VFR/MVFR... Deteriorating to MVFR/ifr in showers
across far western new york late.

Tuesday... MVFR/ifr with occasional showers.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.

Friday... MVFR/ifr with showers likely.

Marine
Southeasterly winds will veer to southerly overnight as weak
low pressure tracks northeastward across the central great
lakes. As this occurs... Winds across the eastern half of lake
ontario will reach into the lower end of the advisory range for
a good chunk of the night... Though the greater wave action will
remain well offshore.

The weak low will make its way further northeastward into quebec
on Monday... With a weaker pressure gradient and stable temperature
profiles resulting in winds and waves remaining below advisory
levels.

Buf watches/warnings/advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Monday for loz043>045.

Synopsis... Jjr/zaff
near term... Jjr/zaff
short term... Church
long term... Hitchcock
aviation... Jjr/zaff
marine... Jjr/zaff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 2 mi49 min S 8 G 11 51°F 1014.3 hPa (-0.6)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 20 mi49 min 49°F 1014.5 hPa (-0.8)
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 35 mi49 min SSE 5.1 G 7 45°F 1014 hPa (-1.0)43°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 44 mi49 min 47°F 1014.5 hPa (-1.0)
EREP1 47 mi49 min S 8 G 13

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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E12
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G12
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G15
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G6
NE13
G16
N13
G18
NE7
G14

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY3 mi56 minS 19 G 2810.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy51°F44°F77%1014.1 hPa

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE10NE8NE10NE10NE10NE8NE5NE5E3NW3N4CalmS17
G21
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G21
SE13
G18
S11
G16
SE13
G20
S8
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E6S6S10
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1 day agoN12NE4N9NE7N6N6N8NE8N11NE14N11NE11NE8E8N9NE12NE9NE11NE9E11NE10NE10NE12NE11
2 days agoS13
G19
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G25
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G29
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G27
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S12S20
G25
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G26
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S16
G23
S13S10W7
G19
SW19
G28
SW21
G27
W10
G17
W9
G21
SW9SW9SW12SW11N15
G23
E4N9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.