Friday, December15, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dunkirk, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:37AMSunset 4:47PM Friday December 15, 2017 9:10 AM EST (14:10 UTC) Moonrise 4:57AMMoonset 3:28PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ061 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on-the-lake Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 319 Am Est Fri Dec 15 2017
Today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 30 knots this afternoon. A chance of snow showers this morning, then snow showers likely this afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Tonight..West winds to 30 knots. Snow showers likely early, then a chance of snow showers from late evening on. Waves 6 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of snow showers in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds to 30 knots becoming west. Rain likely during the day, then a chance of snow Tuesday night. Waves 5 to 8 feet building to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
LEZ061 Expires:201712151545;;918651 FZUS61 KCLE 150819 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 319 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A cold front near Lake Michigan will move across Lake Erie late today then weak high pressure 30.00 inches will build into the lake Saturday. A warm front will set up near the lake by Saturday night then drift slowly north for Sunday and Monday. A cold front will move east across the lake Tuesday. LEZ061-165>169-151545-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dunkirk, NY
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location: 42.49, -79.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 151015
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
515 am est Fri dec 15 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure will track into michigan today and then to new england
Saturday. This will result in periods of lake effect snow during and
below normal temperatures. High pressure will return to the region
Saturday night and Sunday with fair weather.

Near term through tonight
High pressure has moved south of ny overnight and is located over
the dc phi corridor this morning. Light winds have backed to the
southwest as low pressure approaches from the northwest. Lake effect
bands have slowly moved northward overnight in response to a
shortwave trough approaching from the west. Off lake erie... Light
snow will shift northward from the south towns into buffalo
metro and eventually the north towns this morning. This band is
rather shallow and due to the fast shift northward, little to no
accumulation is expected this morning. Off lake ontario... The
band will do a similar shift to the north however this band is
stronger and an inch or two is possible as it moves northward
into jefferson lewis counties. A winter weather advisory for
oswego county will end this morning as the band moves northward
and weakens.

The shortwave trough will move across the eastern great lakes today
and into tonight. A ssw mean wind ahead of the trough axis will give
most of the region a quick break from snow showers however as the
850mb trough axis approaches this afternoon and eventually swings
through tonight, lake bands will move back south. Fcst soundings
become saturated with equilibrium levels over 10k feet this
afternoon. Off erie... Snow showers will pass through niagara
frontier including the buffalo metro late this afternoon evening. A
similar effect is expected off lake ontario as snow showers move
south into the tug hill region. Snowfall rates of one inch per hour
are expected as the lake bands pivot southward and pick up more
moisture from the lakes. Thunder is possible tonight as the
lake bands become organized and gain the best fetch off the
lake. This will also cause snowfall rates to increase. The
evening commute for buffalo metro will be impacted as the band
swings through. A winter weather advisory is in effect for
portions of the niagara frontier including erie county. As winds
veer more tonight, the lake bands will set up shop across the
southern tier and tug hill plateau. Lake effect warnings are in
effect for these regions through Saturday morning. Snowfall
totals will range from 4 to 7 inches in the advisories to 6-12
inches in the lake effect warnings.

Winds will increase this afternoon and tonight and wind chill
values will likely reach the single digits overnight.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night
Organized lake effect snow bands east of the lakes Saturday morning
will diminish Saturday afternoon as surface high pressure, mid-level
ridging and warm air advection move over the eastern great lakes.

Lake induced equilibrium levels will fall toward 5kft weakening the
bands. Outside of the weakening lake effect snow, there remains a
chance of snow showers south of lake ontario into the southern tier
associated with a band of 925-700mb moisture pushing northeast along
the elevated warm front. Additional accumulations of 3-5 inches in
the lake bands with a chance of an inch or less elsewhere. Saturday
night, moisture and forcing along the warm advection axis is
forecast to diminish with any lingering light snow showers ending
resulting in just a band of broken clouds shifting northeast across
the state. Temps Saturday will again run below normal ahead of
approaching warm advection axis. Highs will only reach into the low
to mid 20s or about 10 degrees below normal. Lingering NW winds will
continue to create wind chills in the single digits to teens above
zero. Another cold night forecast Saturday night as the warm
advection will not be surface based. Lows will dip into the teens and
single digits.

Dry weather should then be the flavor of the day Sunday with warmer
temps closer to mid-dec normals. Models do show a chance of some
limited snow or even rain snow showers reaching into the western
southern tier late in the day. This would be ahead of the next weak
shortwave lifting across the ohio valley. Temps Sunday should reach
into the mid 20s in the north country and low to mid 30s for western
ny. Widespread chance pops then remain in the forecast for Sunday
night as the shortwave passes east along the ny pa border. Column
temps should be cool enough for snow showers as overnight surface
readings fall into the teens east of lake ontario and mid 20s to
around 30 across wny.

Long term Monday through Thursday
The transition to a more zonal flow regime be in full swing as we
move into next week. With much of the northern tier of the country
awash in a relatively mild modified pacific airmass, temperatures
will run in the mid 30s to around 40 on Monday. While this is
really only within a few degrees above normal for mid-december, it
will feel positively balmy compared to the recent cold weather.

Accompanying the mild temperatures will be a chance for showers
Monday into Monday night as the area will be within an area of broad
isentropic uplift ahead of a trough over the upper midwest. With
temperatures across most areas remaining in the 30s into Monday
night, it is likely that we will see an elevation-dependent mix of
rain and snow showers.

Showers will become more likely on Tuesday as the aforementioned
trough approaches the forecast area. Ahead of this trough,
strengthening southerly flow will send temperatures surging into the
lower 40s, causing showers to remain all rain during the day. A
strong. A strong cold front will cross the lower great lakes Tuesday
afternoon, bringing gusty winds and sending temperatures tumbling
back into the 20s as we move through Tuesday night. This should
yield a robust lake response, bringing a return of lake effect snows
to areas east southeast of the lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Temperatures will continue on a roller coaster going into the second
half of the week. After a sub-freezing day on Wednesday,
temperatures will potentially warm back up into the upper 30s
Thursday, as a strong upper-level trough digging across the rockies
and resultant surface cyclogenesis over the great plains pushes a
warm front northwards across the great lakes. This system will have
potential to bring a more significant warmup to the forecast area
Friday, along with a potential wind event, before temperatures fall
again over the next weekend.

Aviation 10z Friday through Tuesday
-sn will move into buf iag art this morning and MVFR conditions are
likely. A brief period of ifr conditions is possible. Ssw winds will
push lake snows mainly north and west of all TAF locations this
afternoon, with the exception of iag which will be close to these
snow bands.

Vfr with ifr in lake effect snow. Expect a few hours of heavy snow
at buf iag art this evening, then lake effect should move to the
south and jhw will be impacted.

Outlook...

Saturday... MainlyVFR. Lake effect snow showers mainly away from taf
sites.

Saturday night and Sunday...VFR.

Sunday night through Tuesday...VFR MVFR with a chance of snow
showers.

Marine
Sw winds will increase this afternoon and small craft advisory
conditions are expected for the lake erie nearshore waters. Winds
will then increase across lake ontario resulting in small craft
conditions tonight into Saturday. The increase in winds will be
accompanied by renewed lake snows... Which will be heavy on lake erie
and on the east end of lake ontario.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Lake effect snow warning from 10 pm this evening to 10 am est
Saturday for nyz007.

Winter weather advisory until 7 am est this morning for nyz006.

Lake effect snow warning from 10 pm this evening to 1 pm est
Saturday for nyz006-008.

Winter weather advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 1 am est
Saturday for nyz010.

Winter weather advisory from 11 am this morning to 10 pm est
this evening for nyz001.

Lake effect snow warning from 7 pm this evening to 4 pm est
Saturday for nyz019-020.

Winter weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 1 pm est
Saturday for nyz012-085.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 1 pm est
Saturday for lez040-041.

Small craft advisory until 7 am est this morning for
loz043>045.

Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 pm est
Saturday for loz042>045.

Synopsis... Hsk
near term... Hsk
short term... Smith
long term... Wood
aviation... Hsk
marine... Hsk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 2 mi71 min SSE 8 G 11 18°F 1015.4 hPa (-0.8)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 20 mi41 min 20°F 1013.9 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 35 mi41 min ESE 4.1 G 7 19°F 1013.5 hPa14°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 44 mi41 min 19°F 1014.3 hPa
EREP1 47 mi41 min S 6 G 12

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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G20

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY3 mi18 minSSW 1210.00 miOvercast18°F12°F77%1015 hPa

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4NW12W9W11W7W9W7W9W6W9
G16
W6SW7S8SW8S8S11S7S9S8S6S8S11S13S12
1 day agoW11
G20
NW13
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W8
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W8W9W4SE4E4E5E3E5E7NE4NE5NE5NE6NE9E10E7N11N11NW13NW9
2 days agoNW15
G26
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G29
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W12
G27
NW17
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NW20
G33
W13
G26
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G25
NW19
G27
NW16
G23
NW14
G24
W12
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NW14
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W13
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NW10
G17

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.