Saturday, January19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dunkirk, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:38AMSunset 5:16PM Saturday January 19, 2019 10:10 PM EST (03:10 UTC) Moonrise 3:43PMMoonset 6:05AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ061 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on-the-lake Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 906 Pm Est Sat Jan 19 2019
.gale warning in effect until 4 am est Sunday...
Overnight..Northeast gales to 35 knots becoming north. Freezing spray. Snow, then snow likely late. Waves 7 to 11 feet subsiding to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Sunday..North gales to 35 knots diminishing to 30 knots in the afternoon. Freezing spray. A chance of snow through early afternoon, then a chance of snow showers late. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Sunday night..North winds 15 to 25 knots. Freezing spray. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south. Rain and snow Tuesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 6 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Rain and snow likely during the day, then a chance of snow, rain and freezing rain Wednesday night. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow Thursday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LEZ061 Expires:201901200915;;624000 FZUS61 KCLE 200206 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 906 PM EST Sat Jan 19 2019 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure 29.50 inches will move across the Ohio Valley tonight and reach the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Sunday morning. High pressure 30.60 inches from the northern lakes will build across Lake Erie on Monday. The high will move east Tuesday as low pressure 29.60 inches over Missouri reaches the central lakes by evening. This will take a cold front across Lake Erie early Wednesday. LEZ061-162>169-200915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dunkirk, NY
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location: 42.49, -79.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 200236
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
936 pm est Sat jan 19 2019

Synopsis
A major winter storm will produce heavy snow across the region
overnight into Sunday, with strengthening winds leading to
significant blowing and drifting. Travel conditions will become
difficult, if not impossible at times. Frigid air on the backside
of the storm will also support dangerously low wind chill values,
particularly Sunday afternoon into Monday.

Near term through Sunday night
Major winter storm to impact the region through Sunday...

a large... Consolidating cyclone centered over eastern kentucky at
0230z (930 pm) this evening will track northeastward across west
virginia and then roughly along the mason dixon line overnight...

with the low reaching the philadelphia area by daybreak. This projected
path continues to be given credence by persistent strong pressure
falls over the upper ohio valley and the semblance of a slightly
earlier phasing of the split flow via WV imagery. The end result
of this slightly more northerly track will be a bit more snow and
somewhat stronger winds... Both adding to the adverse impacts of
this significant winter storm. Storm total snowfall is now projected
to average 15 inches or more for the bulk of western new york...

with lower amounts of 10 to 15 inches more likely for the counties
lining lake erie and also for sites north of the tug hill. The
highest amounts... Which could conceivably top two feet... Will be
from monroe to western oswego county... Where lake enhancement from
lake ontario will provide an additional boost to snowfall totals.

These snowfall amounts may not be as important though as the 20
to 30 mph winds that will blow and drift the snow into drifts
several feet deep. As for the meteorology behind all of this...

as of 02z (9 pm) area radars show that the snow has (as expected)
begun to intensify across our region... And this trend will continue
through about 06z (1 am) as available lift across our region quickly
deepens and substantially increases as a southerly 30 to 40 kt low
level jet impinges upon a tightening h925-70 baroclinic zone... And
the right entrance region of an intensifying (to 180 kt) upper
level jet passes across our region. This significant increase in
lift will take place just as a swath of moisture from the gomex
surges through our region... Allowing snowfall rates to increase to
an inch per hour across western new york between now and about
11 pm... And between 11 pm and 1 am across the north country. From
orleans county eastward to wayne county... Additional lake enhancement
may allow snowfall rates to increase to as high as two inches per
hour at times. Adding to the jump in snowfall rates will also be a
transition to much more favorable efficient snow making microphysics.

Usually... The dendritic growth zone is 3-5 kft thick... But overnight
this zone of snow production will deepen to nearly 10 kft! This will
force our somewhat grainy 'columns' and 'needles' of snow to change
in character to dendrites... Which accumulate much faster. In terms
of additional accumulations through the rest of the night... Have
generally bumped these up by another inch or two based on the above
supporting factors and the slightly wetter trend seen in the 18z
guidance... With nighttime totals now expected to range from 6 to 9
inches for the counties bordering lake erie and areas north of the
tug hill... To 10-14 inches from the genesee valley eastward across
the finger lakes region and oswego county.

As mentioned above... It will also become windy overnight as the
pressure gradient across our region tightens out ahead of the
deepening cyclone. Winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph across the
bulk of the region... With gusts over 30 mph likely for the counties
lining the south shore of lake ontario. This will also support wind
chills below zero as the actual mercury will generally range from
10 to 15. For sites north of the tug hill though... Temperatures
will already start below zero so wind chills will be in the vcnty
of 20 to 25 below.

On Sunday... The still deepening (sub 990mb) cyclone will track
across southern new england while arctic high pressure builds
across northern ontario and lake superior. This will set up a
bitterly cold northerly flow of arctic air with h85 temps of -25c
pouring across the forecast area. Just as the frigid air becomes
entrenched over the region... The significant synoptic lift will pull
off to the east. Problems over? Far from it... We will just change
our source of lift.

The arctic airmass pouring over the nearly wide open waters of lake
ontario will now serve as our predominant source of snow. While the
cap will generally be under 8 kft (as one would expect with an
arctic airmass)... Moderate instability over the lake will combine
with residual low level synoptic moisture to support multiple bands
(nearly indiscernible) of light to moderate lake snow. Rates will
likely average a half inch per hour (due to subtle oscillations and
limiting cap)... But could reach as much as an inch. One possible
limiting factor to higher accumulations will be the character of the
snow... Which with the arctic airmass will transition from fluffy
dendrites to plates and columns... Otherwise grainier icier snow.

Daytime snowfall should average 1 to 3 inches over the extreme
far western counties to as much as 4 to 7 inches from orleans to
oswego counties in mainly lake driven snow. Speaking of being
'driven'... Gusty northerly winds of 15 to 30 mph will continue
to generate significant blowing and drifting.

Temperatures Sunday will generally range from 10 to 15 over the
western counties and zero to 10 above across the north country.

Combine that with the aforementioned strong winds and the result
will be apparent temps that will range from 5 to 10 below in the
west to 15 to 20 below for the north county.

Sunday night... The big storm system will track across the canadian
maritimes while the large arctic high will build across the upper
great lakes. Arctic air will remain in place over our region with
continued multiple bands of light to occasionally moderate lake
snow. There is a suggestion by some of the guidance packages that
the limiting inversion will lift to over 10k ft... So this could
encourage the bands of lake snow to be a little more significant.

Otherwise... Temperatures will plummet below zero away from the lakes
with wind chill values dropping to 15 to 25 below over the western
counties and 25 to 35 below east of lake ontario. A wind chill watch
is currently in effect for this serious risk... So stay tuned for a
possible upgrade to a wind chill warning as the time nears.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night
Late Sunday night and Monday morning the center of the mid level
trough will cross the region, along with the pool of coldest air
aloft. Latest model guidance suggests a brief period of deeper
moisture will wrap back across lake ontario Monday morning, which
may bring another period of widespread light snow showers south of
the lake. Despite the frigid airmass and associated strong
instability over the lake, the lake response should be relatively
modest. The deeper moisture is fairly shallow, the airmass is so
cold that it will be too cold for dendrites. This will force lake
effect snow to fall in very small snowflakes that will limit
accumulation. Expect an additional 2-3 inches of accumulation along
the south shore of lake ontario from orleans county eastward across
the rochester area to western oswego county, and extending down into
the finger lakes. Elsewhere, expect an additional dusting to an
inch.

Temperatures will remain very cold, with highs on Monday only
reaching the single numbers in most areas, and likely remaining
below zero east of lake ontario. Wind chills will run -15 to -20f on
the lake plains of western ny, and -25 to -30f across the higher
terrain of the southern tier, western finger lakes, and east of lake
ontario. Portions of lewis county may be lower than -35f.

The lake effect snow southeast of lake ontario will gradually come
to an end Monday night as high pressure builds over the eastern
great lakes. It will be another cold night, with lows below zero in
most locations. The wind will become light overnight however, ending
the risk of dangerous wind chills.

High pressure will drift off the mid atlantic coast Tuesday. Enough
dry air and subsidence will remain in place to keep any
precipitation ahead of the next system to our west through late
afternoon or early evening. After a frigid start, increasing warm
advection will allow temperatures to reach the mid to upper 20s in
western ny by the end of the day, with teens east of lake ontario.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
Tuesday night and Wednesday, a mid level trough and associated
surface low will move into the central great lakes and then into
quebec. Strong warm advection ahead of the system will allow
temperatures to rise overnight into Wednesday morning. Expect some
snow to develop overnight in the warm advection regime ahead of the
system, and then change to rain in most areas Wednesday as
temperatures rise into the upper 30s to lower 40s briefly. There may
be a brief period of freezing rain during the transition. The cold
front moves across the area Wednesday afternoon, allowing any
lingering rain showers to change back to snow showers Wednesday
night as colder air moves back into the region. Temperatures will
drop back into the upper 20s by late Wednesday night.

Forecast uncertainty begins to increase by Thursday and into next
weekend. There will be a trailing southern stream trough and surface
low along the cold front over the southeast states Wednesday night
and Thursday. This low will try to move up the eastern seaboard,
although the current GFS and ECMWF runs keep the subsequent system
too far east to impact our area. Some previous runs of both models
had this low wrapping up and taking a farther west track, which
would then impact our area on Thursday.

Behind this potential system, it will turn steadily colder Friday
and Saturday. A mid level trough and associated cold front will
cross the area Friday with a chance of snow showers. Westerly flow
may develop Friday night and Saturday in the wake of this trough,
with increasing lake effect snow potential east of the lakes.

Temperatures will be well below average again by next weekend.

Aviation 03z Sunday through Thursday
As of 0130z... Area radars show that the snow has (as expected)
begun to quickly intensify across our region. This trend will
continue over the next 3-4 hours... With the snow turning heavy
at times for the balance of the night... Generally between now
and about 04z across western new york and between 04z and 06z
across the north country. This will result in visibilities falling
into the lifr to vlifr ranges areawide and then persisting through
most if not all of the night... With strengthening winds resulting
in increasing amounts of blowing snow as well.

On Sunday... Widespread ifr to lifr vsbys in snow can be expected
for much of the day as lingering synoptic snow gives way to more
mesoscale lake-driven snowfall. The worst conditions should lie
from kroc over to kfzy... Which will see the greatest and most
persistent enhancement from lake ontario.

Outlook...

Sunday night and Monday... Localized ifr in lake effect snow
showers southeast of the lakes... With MVFR elsewhere.

Tuesday...VFR.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... MVFR ifr in snow changing to
mainly rain.

Thursday...VFR to MVFR with some snow showers likely.

Marine
Strong northeast winds will be found across lakes erie and ontario
overnight... As a deepening winter storm will track up the ohio valley
to the mid atlantic region. High-end small craft advisories will
remain in place... With a heavy freezing spray warning also in effect
because of the high waves and frigid airmass.

As the storm moves up the new england coast Sunday... Winds will back
to the north and northwest across the lower great lakes while wind
speeds will remain elevated.

Winds are not forecast to substantially diminish until Monday
and Monday night when arctic high pressure builds across the region.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Winter storm warning until 6 pm est Sunday for nyz001>008-
010>014-019>021-085.

Wind chill watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon
for nyz006>008-012>014-020-021-085.

Marine... Heavy freezing spray warning until 6 am est Monday for lez040-
041.

Small craft advisory until 11 pm est Sunday for lez040-041.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est Sunday for lez020.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm est Sunday for loz030.

Heavy freezing spray warning until 6 am est Monday for
loz042>045-062>065.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm est Monday for loz042>044.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm est Sunday for loz045.

Synopsis... Jjr rsh
near term... Jjr rsh
short term... Hitchcock
long term... Hitchcock
aviation... Jjr rsh
marine... Jjr rsh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 2 mi70 min NE 30 G 33 20°F 1009 hPa (-3.2)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 20 mi40 min 19°F 1010.1 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 35 mi40 min NNE 16 G 20 15°F 32°F1012.1 hPa6°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 44 mi40 min 15°F 1012.7 hPa
EREP1 47 mi40 min ENE 32 G 38

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY3 mi17 minNE 16 G 210.75 miLight Snow Fog/Mist16°F12°F88%1010.5 hPa

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3NE5NE5E3E4E5NE7NE8E5E8NE11NE10NE9NE13NE12NE12NE16NE16
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1 day agoS12S10S8S10S13S11S9SW8SW12NW8NW7W6W7W7W7SW6W6W9
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2 days agoCalmCalmSE4SW3CalmE3E4CalmE4CalmSE6SE6E4NE5NE3CalmCalmN5NE4E34S9SW9S11

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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.