Thursday, August24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dunkirk, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 8:04PM Thursday August 24, 2017 6:27 AM EDT (10:27 UTC) Moonrise 8:35AMMoonset 8:52PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ061 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on-the-lake Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 346 Am Edt Thu Aug 24 2017
Today..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. A chance of waterspouts from late morning on. A slight chance of showers from late morning on. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. A chance of waterspouts early. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots. Waves 1 foot or less building to 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
LEZ061 Expires:201708241415;;310172 FZUS61 KCLE 240746 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 346 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A trough of low pressure averaging 29.90 inches will move across Lake Erie today. A large area of of High pressure 30.30 inches will push south across the Great Lakes early this weekend. The high will shift east into New England Sunday with ridge across the Eastern Great Lakes. LEZ061-166>169-241415-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dunkirk, NY
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location: 42.49, -79.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 241015
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
615 am edt Thu aug 24 2017

Synopsis
An large upper level trough over the great lakes will provide our
region with cool weather through the end of the work week. A few
spotty light showers will remain possible at times into Friday
morning... Before high pressure brings dry weather from Friday
afternoon right on through the upcoming weekend... Along with a
gradual warming trend.

Near term through tonight
Valley fog across the southern tier will persist through sunrise...

before dissipating by mid morning with renewed daytime heating and
mixing.

Otherwise... Our region will remain firmly locked in the grip of deep
longwave troughing today... With another shortwave (currently over
the upper mississippi valley) quickly diving through the base of the
trough and reaching our region during the late morning and afternoon
hours.

The combination of our cool airmass aloft... Increasing background
moisture... And lake-induced thermal troughing should initially lead
to an expanding area of lake effect clouds and scattered lake effect
showers along and inland from the south shore of lake ontario
through the early to middle portions of this morning. After that
time... Increasing diurnal influences and the approach of the
shortwave will result in the better instability shifting to areas
further inland and the forcing becoming increasingly synoptically-
driven rather than lake-driven... Which will in turn result in the
showers becoming increasingly diurnally-driven and gradually sliding
southeastward across the remainder of western new york. In the
forecast... Have covered these with a mix of low to mid-range chance
pops... Which best fits the expected scattered coverage. Aside from
the showers... We can also expect a fair amount of diurnal cumulus to
develop with diurnal heating of our cool airmass today... Which
should result in predominantly partly sunny skies during the late
morning and afternoon hours. As for temperatures... 850 mb readings
will generally be between +6c and +8c... Which should translate into
afternoon high temps mostly in the mid to upper 60s... With just a
few of our normal warm spots possibly reaching the 70 degree mark.

Such temperatures will be a solid 10 degrees or so below normal late
august levels... And will in fact be more typical of those of mid to
late september.

As we move on into tonight... The loss of diurnal influences will
result in the scattered diurnally-driven showers transitioning back
to some more isolated to widely scattered lake effect showers along
and a little inland from the south shores of lakes erie and
ontario... With the latter likely remaining rather limited in extent
due to the weak and somewhat sheared northerly low level flow that
will be in place. With this in mid... Have kept precipitation chances
for tonight confined to the slight chance to low chance range.

Otherwise conditions will be largely dry... With some partial
clearing also eventually allowing for the development of another
round of southern tier valley fog by later on tonight. With our cool
airmass remaining in place... It will be another cool and comfortable
night for sleeping... With overnight lows ranging from the mid to
upper 40s in interior portions of the southern tier and north
country to the lower to mid 50s along the lakeshores.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
Plenty of over-lake instability still in place Friday as
unseasonably cool 850 mb temperatures of around 5c remain over the
lower great lakes. Relatively short northerly fetch and incoming
drier air should keep lake induced rain showers limited on Friday.

Any early day showers and clouds will give way to at least partial
sunshine by mid day or early afternoon, as drying continues and lake
processes become diurnally disrupted. 850 mb thermal trough
positioned across the lower great lakes Friday will result in
another unusually cool august day with most highs about five to ten
degrees cooler than normal, from the mid 60s to within a few degrees
of 70.

Expansive cool high pressure will set up across the region Friday
night through Saturday night. This will keep our weather very quiet.

There will be minimal cloud cover along with refreshingly cool and
comfortable temperatures, making it feel more like early fall than
late summer.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
High pressure will be anchored over the northeast this weekend, with
a cool NW flow aloft providing for comfortable levels of humidity
and just fair weather afternoon cumulus. The upper level trough will
exit Monday... And we'll be within a quasi-zonal flow aloft through
the remainder of the period with a upper level cut off low over the
midwest. We should hold onto our dry pattern through at least
Tuesday, if not Wednesday depending upon how quickly eastward this
upper level low advances.

The end of the month will finish with comfortable late summer
temperatures... Near the average of mid 70s... And dewpoints will be
comfortable, generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Nights may
become cool, with mid 40s possible early in the period across
interior valleys.

Aviation 10z Thursday through Monday
Ifr MVFR valley fog across the southern tier will persist through
sunrise... Before dissipating by 13z with renewed daytime heating and
mixing.

After the southern tier valley fog dissipates early this morning...

the combination of cool air aloft and daytime heating will again
lead to the development of a broken cumulus field in many areas...

with initial scattered lake effect showers along and a bit inland
from the south shore of lake ontario pushing inland and becoming
more diurnally-driven over time. While flight conditions will be
predominantlyVFR... A period of MVFR ceilings in lake effect clouds
will be possible south of lake ontario during the morning and midday
hours... With brief localized reductions to ifr MVFR also possible
within any showers.

Tonight any diurnally-driven shower activity will come to an end
early in the evening... With a few more isolated to widely scattered
lake effect showers then possible through the balance of the night
along and a little inland from the south shores of lakes erie and
ontario. Flight conditions will again be predominantlyVFR... With
some MVFR possible across the higher terrain and within any leftover
showers. Late in the night... Some ifr MVFR valley fog may redevelop
across the southern tier as skies partially clear... Possibly leading
to another round of restrictions at kjhw.

Outlook...

Friday... MainlyVFR.

Saturday through Monday...VFR.

Marine
With a rather cool airmass remaining in place across the lower lakes
region through Friday... There will be a continued potential for a
few waterspouts at times through the end of the work week... Mainly
in association with any showers or vertically-developed cloud bands.

Otherwise... Sprawling surface high pressure draped from central
canada to the mid-mississippi valley will gradually build southeast
across our region through the rest of the week and the upcoming
weekend. This will result in an extended period of sub-advisory
winds and waves across the lower lakes region... Particularly from
Friday on through the weekend when winds will average 10 knots or
less... And waves will be under 2 feet.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jjr
near term... Jjr
short term... Tma
long term... Thomas
aviation... Jjr
marine... Jjr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 2 mi27 min NW 8.9 G 12 64°F 1015.7 hPa (-0.0)
45142 - Port Colborne 17 mi87 min NW 12 G 16 62°F 71°F2 ft1015.1 hPa (+0.6)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 20 mi39 min 62°F 1015.2 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 35 mi39 min WNW 8.9 G 13 59°F 1014.9 hPa52°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 44 mi39 min 59°F 1015.9 hPa
EREP1 47 mi39 min NNE 6 G 8.9
45167 48 mi68 min NNE 9.7 G 12 65°F 75°F2 ft

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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G16
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G30
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NW17
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SE3
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G14
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G9
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SW7
G11
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G11
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G10
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SW2
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SE3
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SE3
G6
S7
G11
S12
G16
S15
S15
S13
G16

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY3 mi34 minNW 610.00 miFair61°F51°F70%1015.4 hPa

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8W6W8W9W8W13
G18
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G20
W12
G22
SW18
G23
W15
G21
SW14
G21
W7
G17
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W8NW9NW8NW6NW7N73CalmNW7NW6NW6
1 day agoS15S14S12S13
G17
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G22
SW7SW9SW9SW13
G22
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G24
SW15
G24
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G23
SW14
G25
SW13SW9NW12
G19
NW8W4NW7W5S5SW5NW9W5
2 days agoS11CalmE3S7S6W8W9W11SW5SW6W7SW6SW3CalmS3CalmS3S10S9
G16
S14
G22
S11S12S13
G18
S13

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.