Friday, June23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dunkirk, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:40AMSunset 8:58PM Friday June 23, 2017 3:05 PM EDT (19:05 UTC) Moonrise 4:25AMMoonset 7:28PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ061 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on-the-lake Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 954 Am Edt Fri Jun 23 2017
This afternoon..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers during the day. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet...then subsiding to 2 to 3 feet.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day...then a chance of showers Monday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ061 Expires:201706232015;;691676 FZUS61 KCLE 231354 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 954 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure of 29.50 inches will pull a cold front east across Lake Erie. A series of weak, reinforcing cold fronts will cross the lake over the weekend and on Monday as a trough averaging 30.00 inches remains across the eastern Great Lakes. High pressure 30.20 inches from the plains states will move to the Ohio Valley by late Tuesday. LEZ061-165>169-232015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dunkirk, NY
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location: 42.49, -79.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 231744
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
144 pm edt Fri jun 23 2017

Synopsis
Occasional showers and scattered thunderstorms associated with a
cold front will continue through this evening before ending from
northwest to southeast overnight. An upper level trough will then
become established over the weekend with a brief shower or
thunderstorm possible both days, but the majority of the time will
be rain free. A better chance of showers will arrive Monday as the
trough sharpens over the great lakes. Temperatures will drop to
below normal over the weekend and early next week.

Near term through Saturday
Radar imagery showing numerous areas of showers crossing the region
this afternoon as several weak convectively augmented vorticity
maxima and associated small low level speed maxes cross the area,
bringing periods of enhanced ascent and moisture convergence. This
will continue to be the case through the late afternoon and early
evening, with a few rounds of showers expected in most locations.

There is been very little thunder so far given the extensive cloud
cover and showers limiting destabilization. There may be some
opportunity for limited instability to develop late this afternoon
with a few breaks in the showers, and this may support a few widely
scattered thunderstorms. Pwat is near 2 inches, so any storms that
develop may produce brief heavy downpours. Severe weather risk is
minimal given the anemic CAPE and poor lapse rates.

Showers and widely scattered thunderstorms will continue into this
evening along the pre-frontal trough and any remaining small scale
mid level perturbations. The rain will then end from northwest to
southeast overnight as the surface cold front crosses the area. The
lake plains should see some clearing late tonight as a push of dry
air arrives out of canada and subsidence increases in the wake of
the cold front. Low clouds will likely persist across the higher
terrain of the southern tier and tug hill region in moist low level
upslope flow. Cold advection will increase behind the cold front and
allow lows to drop to drop into the lower 60s in most locations by
daybreak.

On Saturday a weak surface ridge will build into the ohio valley and
eastern great lakes. Meanwhile, a broad weak trough will become
established in the mid upper levels across the great lakes. A mid
level shortwave will move through the mean longwave trough and cross
the eastern great lakes during the afternoon. Meanwhile, mesoscale
convergence zones will setup across our region as enhanced gradient
onshore SW flow develops downstream of lake erie, with more westerly
flow across lake ontario. This should allow a well defined surface
convergence zone to develop from niagara falls east to rochester,
eventually building all the way east to central ny. The convergence
along this feature combined with the weak large scale ascent from
the mid level shortwave may support a few widely scattered afternoon
showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the corridor between the nys
thruway and south shore of lake ontario. An isolated afternoon
thunderstorm also cannot be ruled out across the higher terrain from
the interior southern tier into the finger lakes. It will be less
humid on Saturday, with highs in the mid 70s in most locations, and
a few upper 70s from the genesee valley into central ny.

Short term Saturday night through Monday night
Saturday night... The upper level pattern will feature a longwave
trough centered over the great lakes region with an upstream
intermountain ridge. At the surface... A weak ridge will be in
place. Thus any leftover scattered evening convection on lake
breezes, primarily S of lake ontario, should quickly dissipate
during the evening with a dry and cool remainder of the night - low
should be mostly in the 50s.

Sunday and Sunday night... Sunday should start out nice, but expect
the eventual development of scattered to possibly numerous showers
and thunderstorms developing on lake breeze boundaries. Additional
development may form along a weak cold front moving SE into wny
during the afternoon. Similar to Saturday night, expect convection
to dissipate fairly quickly with the loss of daytime heating.

Monday... The upstream cold pool aloft corresponding to the upper
level trough will pass overhead. Strong insolation and resultant
mixing, together with plenty of moisture and cool air aloft without
any signs of a cap will result in fairly quick development of
showers and some thunderstorms, although CAPE values will be
unimpressive with a skinny profile seen in point forecast soundings.

Still, with a freezing level somewhere near 8000-10000ft, cells
could easily support small hail. As noted earlier, there may even be
a hint of a lake response with a dry adabatic lapse rates over the
65-70+f waters. Once again, expect showers to be on the decrease
during the evening with little or no showers late.

Long term Tuesday through Thursday
The longwave trough axis will quickly pivot across western and
central ny through Tuesday. This pattern will continue to support
cool temperatures with comfortable humidly. Daytime highs topping
out in the 60s to perhaps about the 70 degree mark. The cool air
aloft within the trough (again 850mb t around 6c) will support
mainly a diurnal threat for showers and possibly some thunderstorms.

Lake effect clouds showers can also continue to be possible with
steep low level lapse rates. Taller shower storm cells in this cool
environment may bring some small hail with a sub-10kft freezing
level.

Surface high pressure centered over the southern appalachians will
ridge north across the region Wednesday allowing for dry weather
with mainly clear to partly cloudy skies and temps still a degree or
two below normal. By Thursday, the high is forecast to shift off the
mid-atlantic coast with southerly winds bringing a return of
increasing moisture and warmth across western and central ny. Highs
look to push into the upper 70s to around 80. This may also result
in a few showers and thunderstorms later in the day Thursday.

Aviation 18z Friday through Wednesday
Periods of showers and a few widely scattered thunderstorms will
continue this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front moving
through the central great lakes. Some of the heavier showers will
produce areas of MVFR vsby, with local ifr in the heaviest
downpours. MVFR CIGS will become widespread this afternoon and
evening, with pockets of ifr across higher terrain.

The showers and scattered thunderstorms will end from northwest to
southeast overnight with the passage of the cold front. Vsby will
improve to mainlyVFR as the rain ends. CIGS will improve toVFR
across lower elevations overnight as clouds scatter out. MVFR and
ifr CIGS will linger across higher terrain.

On Saturday a weak broad mid level trough will become established
across the great lakes. While most of the time will be rain free, a
few isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop along lake breeze
boundaries, most notably along the kiag to kroc corridor. Any
lingering ifr CIGS across higher terrain will improve, leavingVFR
to prevail Saturday outside of any isolated thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Sunday through Tuesday... MainlyVFR with a chance of
mainly afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms.

Wednesday... MainlyVFR.

Thursday... MainlyVFR with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm.

Marine
Moderate west to southwest winds will develop on lakes erie and
ontario overnight and Saturday in the wake of a cold front crossing
the area. This will bring choppy conditions with waves averaging 2-4
feet at the east end of both lakes, but conditions are expected to
remain just below small craft advisory levels.

West to southwest winds are likely to increase on Sunday on lake
erie as the pressure gradient increases ahead of a secondary cold
front crossing the eastern great lakes. The increase in winds is
less certain on lake ontario with considerable model differences
showing up. At least moderate westerlies will continue with choppy
conditions, and there is a chance of stronger small craft advisory
conditions if the stronger GFS based guidance verifies.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Hitchcock
near term... Hitchcock
short term... Zaff
long term... Smith
aviation... Hitchcock
marine... Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 2 mi66 min SSW 8.9 G 12 73°F 1001.5 hPa (-2.4)
45142 - Port Colborne 17 mi66 min SSW 9.7 G 12 68°F 67°F1 ft1001.1 hPa (-1.9)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 20 mi54 min 72°F 1001.5 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 35 mi54 min S 8.9 G 12 70°F 1001.1 hPa70°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 44 mi54 min 71°F 1001.4 hPa
EREP1 47 mi60 min SW 6 G 12
45167 48 mi67 min SW 12 G 14 72°F 71°F1 ft

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY3 mi73 minS 910.00 miLight Rain73°F70°F90%1001.4 hPa

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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S13S13S10S9S6SW7S9SW9S11S10SW10SW9S9S11
1 day agoW8W8SW8W7SW6SW5S4S4CalmSW4SW4S3CalmSE3S3S3CalmS3SW6SW8CalmN6SE4SW9
2 days agoW12
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SW8SW4S33S8SW3S4SW4SW5SW4SW3CalmSW3W5W6W6W7W10SW8W11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.