Friday, November16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dunkirk, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 4:55PM Friday November 16, 2018 11:26 AM EST (16:26 UTC) Moonrise 1:59PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 62% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ061 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on-the-lake Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 917 Am Est Fri Nov 16 2018
Rest of today..Southwest winds to 30 knots becoming west. A chance of rain and snow showers late this morning, then a chance of rain and snow showers likely early this afternoon. A chance of rain showers late. Waves 6 to 9 feet building to 8 to 11 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Tonight..West winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers likely early, then a chance of rain and snow showers late in the evening. Waves 6 to 10 feet subsiding to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. A chance of snow and rain showers in the morning, then rain showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain and snow during the day, then a chance of rain and snow showers Sunday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow and rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LEZ061 Expires:201811162115;;392989 FZUS61 KCLE 161417 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 917 AM EST Fri Nov 16 2018 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A trough will deepen to 29.60 inches as it moves across the Upper Great today, pulling a cold front east across Lake Erie. Another weak cold front will settle south across the lake on Saturday. High pressure of 30.30 inches will expand across the southern lakes on Sunday, then settle south to the Ohio Valley Monday as another cold front moves south across the lake Monday night. LEZ061-165>169-162115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dunkirk, NY
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location: 42.49, -79.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 161501
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1001 am est Fri nov 16 2018

Synopsis
A few more rounds of snow and rain showers are expected across
western new york though this afternoon while an embedded weak lake
effect band sets up east of lake erie. Another lake band will be
possible over the tug hill overnight. Additional scattered snow
showers will remain possible through early next week along with
continued below normal temperatures.

Near term through tonight
Water vapor imagery and upper air analysis shows an upper level
trough moving east toward ny for today. With plenty of moisture is
available, expect some additional light rain and mostly non-
accumulating snow showers for much of the day due to lacking lift
and near or above freezing surface temperatures.

There will also be an embedded lake band east of lake erie that may
be able to produce a few inches of snow. Conditions are marginal
for a lake response, but available moisture above the inversion near
~5000' should help to keep this band going through much of the
afternoon. This band, initially in the southtowns, may move north
toward the city and metro buffalo areas before heading back south
early this evening.

Weak cold air advection will continue tonight as 850ts drop to a few
degrees - to around -7c to -8c by Saturday morning. A lake response
and or upslope event is possible east of lake ontario over the tug
hill plateau where an advisory may be needed. Temperatures tonight
will be in the low to mid 30s, with higher terrain on the colder
side and areas near the lakeshores on the warmer side.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night
Saturday and Saturday night a cold front will slowly move southeast
across the area as a mid level trough brushes by the great lakes and
new england. The front itself may produce a few rain and wet snow
showers. Enough lake induced instability will be present to support
a modest lake response east of both lakes. A few lake effect snow
showers may be ongoing across the western southern tier and tug hill
region in the morning. Bands of lake enhanced precipitation will
then move north towards buffalo and watertown through the day as
boundary layer flow backs to the southwest ahead of the cold front.

Increasing large scale ascent should force lake enhanced precip to
strengthen later in the day. By evening boundary layer flow will
veer wnw behind the cold front, carrying weakening lake effect south
across the western southern tier off lake erie, and south across the
tug hill region east of lake ontario.

Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 30s during the midday
hours Saturday, forcing precipitation to be a mix of rain and wet
snow at lower elevations with wet snow still favored across higher
terrain. The marginal temperatures will keep accumulations to a
minimum at lower elevations, with a few inches possible late
Saturday afternoon and evening across the chautauqua ridge east of
lake erie and tug hill east of lake ontario.

Lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes will slowly diminish
and end Saturday night as shear increases and deeper low level
moisture moves away. On Sunday a weak wave of low pressure is
forecast to move along the frontal zone stalled across oh pa. This
will spread clouds northward into our region, and if the wave
matures enough some light snow will develop especially across the
southern tier with minor accumulations possible. Highs Sunday will
reach the mid 30s in most areas, and upper 20s to lower 30s for the
north country.

The weak wave of low pressure will move off the east coast later
Sunday night with any light general snow coming to an end. The
airmass will be just cold enough to support a chance of a few
lingering lake effect snow showers east of lakes erie and ontario
overnight, but any accumulation would be spotty and minor. Lows will
drop into the mid to upper 20s overnight.

Long term Monday through Thursday
Broad upper level troughing will continue to dominate the great
lakes and northeastern states through the middle of next week...

resulting in a certainty of continued well below normal temperatures
through Wednesday. Speaking more specifically... We can expect daily
highs to mostly be in the lower to mid 30s... While nightly lows
range from the teens across the north country to the 20s elsewhere.

Such readings will be more typical of mid-winter than of mid to late
november.

In terms of precipitation... The medium range guidance suite remains
in general agreement on one or two additional weak surface troughs
affecting our region between Monday and Tuesday... However considerable
run-to-run and model-to-model differences still exist with respect to
the track and timing of these features. Consequently... The orientation...

strength... And amount of shear in the low level wind field at any given
point also remains much in question. With both of the above in mind...

forecast confidence in the timing and placement of both synoptically-
driven and lake-driven precipitation through the first half of the
period remains on the low side... And as such have kept mostly
broadbrush snow shower chances in place right through Tuesday night.

As we progress through the middle of next week and into the long
thanksgiving holiday weekend... It still appears that an area of
high pressure and attendant drier weather will slide eastward across
our region and then off the atlantic coastline... With a south to
southwesterly return flow of warmer air eventually developing into
our region on the backside of this feature. 00z model guidance is
starting to come into better agreement with the warmer air arriving
on thanksgiving day, and lasting through at least the following
weekend. If the forecast pattern holds, highs by thanksgiving
afternoon will reach the 40s on the lake plains.

Aviation 15z Friday through Tuesday
Ifr and some lifr will remain through the period with some cig
improvement outside of lake bands late tonight and into Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday and Sunday... MainlyVFR, but ifr possible east of
both lakes in lake rain and or snow.

Monday and Tuesday... MVFR ifr with a chance of snow showers.

Marine
Rain and snow showers will continue today on the back side of a
coastal low, with some lake effect showers east of lake erie today
and east of lake ontario tonight. Westerly winds increase with small
craft advisories in effect through Saturday.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 pm est Saturday for lez040-041.

Small craft advisory until 1 am est Saturday for lez020.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm est Saturday for
loz043>045.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm est Saturday for loz042.

Synopsis... Sw zaff
near term... Sw zaff
short term... Hitchcock
long term... Hitchcock jjr
aviation... Sw zaff
marine... Sw zaff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 2 mi27 min SW 23 G 29 37°F 1007.6 hPa (+0.6)
45142 - Port Colborne 17 mi87 min W 23 39°F 47°F1006.9 hPa (+0.5)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 20 mi45 min 36°F 1006.5 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 35 mi39 min WSW 17 G 21 36°F 43°F1007.6 hPa33°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 44 mi39 min 36°F 1007.1 hPa
EREP1 47 mi39 min SW 9.9 G 18

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY3 mi34 minSW 15 G 2510.00 miUnknown Precip35°F30°F82%1008.7 hPa

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN33E7E9SE13SE7
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E5E9NE3NE5NE3CalmCalmS3CalmS6S7S8S8W10
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1 day agoNW8NW7W5W5SW4S4S4S6S4SE3SE5SE6SE5SE6NE6E6E7NE7NE5NE7NE8NE9E4NE3
2 days agoNW13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.