Tuesday, January22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Clair Shores, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:52AMSunset 5:33PM Tuesday January 22, 2019 1:01 AM EST (06:01 UTC) Moonrise 7:34PMMoonset 9:06AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 958 Am Est Mon Jan 21 2019
Rest of today..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny.
Tonight..Light and variable winds becoming south 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear until early morning becoming mostly cloudy.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly cloudy.
Tuesday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Light snow in the evening. A chance of light sleet late in the evening. Rain in the late evening and overnight.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon...then diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the evening. Cloudy. Light rain early in the morning...then light rain likely in the late morning and early afternoon.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. Waves omitted due to ice coverage.
LCZ460 Expires:201901212100;;700955 FZUS63 KDTX 211458 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 958 AM EST Mon Jan 21 2019 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure, 30.70 inches, will settle into the Ohio Valley today. This high will drift east to be located over the east coast by Tuesday. Low pressure, 29.60 inches, is forecast to lift into the northern Great Lakes from the southern Plains Tuesday night; then across Lake Huron Wednesday morning before lifting into southern Quebec Wed afternoon. Weak high pressure will advance into the region in its wake. An arctic cold front is then forecast to advance across Lake Huron Thursday night. LCZ460-212100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Clair Shores, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.49, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kdtx 220517
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1217 am est Tue jan 22 2019

Aviation
Arctic airmass is moving off to the east while a high pressure
drifts further to the southeast of michigan. Increase in high cloud
will be moving overnight and through tomorrow afternoon.VFR
conditions will prevail during this time. The winds out of the s-se
around 5-10 knots early this morning and will pick up to 10-15 knots
by around 14z. Precipitation chances begin increasing by tomorrow
evening between 23-03z as a low pressure system lifts out of the
plains. There remains some uncertainty at this point in regards to
precipitation type, but a wintry mix transitioning to snow will be
possible for ptk fnt mbs and there is a potential for light freezing
rain at the beginning of this event for yip dtw det where surface
temperatures will be around freezing. MVFR ifr conditions will
accompany this system as it moves through tomorrow night.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* low for precip type as freezing rain tomorrow evening.

* high for ceilings below 5,000 feet tomorrow night into tomorrow
morning.

Prev discussion
Issued at 332 pm est Mon jan 21 2019
discussion...

near term rest of today through tonight
as of 330 pm est... A chilly day continues across the region as
arctic airmass remains entrenched. 1039 hpa surface high pressure
continues to slowly drift to the southeast into northwest ohio, and
will move towards eastern ohio by this evening. Strong subsidence
associated with the high and anticyclonic flow trajectories have
resulted in abundant sunshine for most areas, with the exception
across the eastern thumb down towards the northeastern detroit metro
suburbs where occasional lake effect clouds have streamed in. Light
lake effect snow showers that affected portions of eastern huron and
sanilac counties earlier this morning continue to drift over the
southern lake huron basin and will continue gradually dwindling with
time as mixing depths decrease.

Temperatures have risen into the upper single digits to lower teens
for most areas, with a few mid teens readings around the detroit
metro. This evening, the nearby presence of the surface high coupled
with already light and variable flow briefly trending calm, will
allow for temperatures to likely plummet below zero again for a time
between 00z-06z. Coldest temperatures will be closer to the ohio
border aided in part by a deeper snowpack as lows fall to around -5
degrees. High clouds streaming in beginning late this evening and
continuing through the rest of tonight ahead of the next storm
system will limit lows from plummeting further, resulting in
temperatures gradually rising into the single digits lower teens by
daybreak Tuesday. Coldest wind chills will be in the -5 to -10
degree range throughout much of the night, with near -15 degree
readings at times near the ohio border. Lack of duration and
questions to areal coverage of high clouds will preclude the
issuance of a wind chill advisory at this time.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
a complicated and messy forecast is in store for Tuesday
evening night as developing low pressure in the central plains lifts
northeast towards the great lakes. Model guidance has been in fairly
good agreement with the track of the low center the past few model
cycles, with the track along a milwaukee muskegon midland line. Some
uncertainty still exists with the overall timing of the system,
which will have even further ramifications on an already messy
thermal profile. Overall, dry weather looks to prevail most of the
day Tuesday under thickening and lowering clouds.

Strong warm air advection in the low-levels (warming from around -18
c currently at 850 hpa to around 0 c by Tuesday evening) will allow
for a pretty noticeable temperature swing, with highs warming to
around 30. The strong warm air advection will be riding on the heels
of an impressive LLJ (70+ knots at 850 hpa) that will also be
tapping gulf moisture as 850-700 hpa specific humidity increases in
excess of 4 g kg. Despite temperatures attempting to warm to near
freezing during the day, the dry near-surface arctic air will be
slower to erode as dewpoints struggle to rise into the 20s by
Tuesday evening.

Temperatures will dip slightly back into the mid upper 20s early
Tuesday night with loss of daytime heating, but 925-850 hpa temps
will continue to be on the rise, increasing to around 1-3 c during
the course of the night. With surface temperatures in the mid upper
20s and dewpoints in the 20s beneath this developing warm nose,
expecting a period of snow with occasional wintry mix. There remains
uncertainty as to the depth of the near-surface cold layer and where
exactly the warm nose sets up at, which will have implications on a
wintry mix featuring more of freezing rain vs. Sleet. Based on the
latest forecast soundings, it would appear that more in the way of
sleet could occur, with the warm nose lowering with time favoring a
transition to freezing rain. Wet bulbing, initial evaporative
cooling effects, and precip rates will also be big factors
especially at the onset of precipitation, which looks to start 21z-
00z in the tri-cities region, and 00z-03z across much of the rest of
southeast michigan. If precip timing is a few hours slower, the
wintry mix potential would be lessened, especially south of m-59 as
warmer air quickly floods into the region.

Highest confidence in a wintry mix is north of the m-59 corridor,
with colder air lodged north of i-69 providing the best opportunity
for a longer residence time of snow that may accumulate to a few
inches. If freezing rain occurs for any extended period, a few
hundredths of an inch on untreated surfaces would also be in play.

Timing window for mixed precip will largely be in the 00z-03z
primarily south of the i-96 corridor, 00z-06z i-96 to i-69
corridors, and 00z-09z for far northern areas as warmer air
transitions precip type over to rain as the night progresses. For
exact QPF amounts, see the hydrology section below. With the event
still 24 hours out, will not issue a winter weather advisory at this
time to allow for more hi-res guidance to come in and forecast
uncertainties detailed above to be better ironed out.

By 12z Wednesday, all areas will have transitioned to rain which
will continue through the rest of the morning. Rain will quickly
come to an end Tuesday afternoon as the systems cold front and dry
slot push through. Before the front, temperatures will spike to near
40 degrees before falling back into the lower 20s for lows Wednesday
night post-front.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
conditions through the remainder of the week and into the next
weekend look to remain active as longwave troughing holds across the
region and brings periodic chances for snow. Arctic air will also
filter back into the area throughout the extended timeframe with
highs only topping off in the teens by the end of the week.

Marine...

modest west to southwest winds this evening will gradually increase
from the south tonight as high pressure slowly exits the region. A
period of strong southerly winds will exist on Tuesday in advance of
an approaching low pressure system. The onset of the winds will
occur as remnant arctic air resides across the lakes, with the
resulting higher degree of instability prompting some gusts to gale
force over lake huron. Increasing stability as warmer air lifts into
the region will decrease the gust potential Tuesday night.

Another intrusion of arctic air is forecast to overspread the great
lakes thurs night into Friday. This will bring another round of
gusty winds (possibly gale force) and high probabilities of heavy
freezing spray.

Hydrology...

a low pressure system will track through lower michigan on
Wednesday. Precipitation will develop in advance of this system
Tuesday night, starting as a wintry mix before transitioning to
rain. Precipitation amounts of up to one half of an inch can be
expected. This amount is not expected to result in flooding issues.

Some minor ponding on roads and in more susceptible urban areas will
be possible

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Gale warning from 10 am this morning to 10 pm est this evening for
lhz361>363-441>443-462>464.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Sc
discussion... Irl sp
marine... ... .Mr
hydrology... .Mr
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 1 mi62 min SSW 2.9 G 6 8°F 1035.9 hPa (+0.3)
AGCM4 21 mi44 min 10°F 32°F1035.3 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 42 mi50 min 8°F 1034.8 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 43 mi50 min SW 7 G 8 6°F 1034.8 hPa-0°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
Last
24hr
NW18
G23
NW16
G24
NW12
G24
NW14
G24
NW16
G23
NW15
G21
NW15
G21
NW14
G20
NW15
G20
NW11
G20
NW14
G21
NW12
G17
NW10
G16
NW6
G13
W11
G14
NW7
G13
NW6
G10
W7
W6
W5
--
W5
SW8
SW7
G10
1 day
ago
NE29
NE29
G38
NE39
NE36
NE36
N13
G23
N13
G23
N12
G31
NW21
G28
NW16
G22
NW18
G29
N22
G31
N17
G31
N18
G30
N15
G28
N15
G29
NW13
G29
NW18
G27
NW15
G22
NW12
G26
NW16
G28
NW15
G26
NW14
G24
NW14
G24
2 days
ago
SE8
G11
SE9
E17
E18
E19
E20
E20
E17
E16
E16
G20
E23
E24
E22
E24
NE26
NE29
NE27
NE28
E32
NE30

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI8 mi69 minWSW 610.00 miFair6°F-2°F66%1037.3 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI9 mi66 minSSW 410.00 miFair2°F-3°F80%1037.2 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI16 mi66 minSW 410.00 miFair6°F-7°F53%1035.9 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
Last 24hrNW8NW9NW7NW7NW7NW7W5NW6W8NW8NW7NW65W53S3SW3SW4SW5SW4CalmSW4SW6Calm
1 day agoN17
G27
N16
G26
N15
G29
N15
G27
N14
G26
NW11
G19
NW10
G20
NW14
G21
NW15
G20
N11
G20
N14
G22
N11
G24
N16
G23
N11
G20
N11
G19
N11
G18
NW11
G18
N7N7N10NW9NW9NW12
G17
NW9
G16
2 days agoNE11NE9NE7E8E10NE9NE10
G20
NE9NE10
G20
NE12NE11
G18
NE12
G17
NE11
G16
NE13
G22
NE14
G20
NE12NE11N13N16
G22
N13
G24
N17
G22
N15N15
G25
N15
G23

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (1,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.