Saturday, March25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Clair Shores, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 7:51PM Saturday March 25, 2017 9:38 AM EDT (13:38 UTC) Moonrise 5:10AMMoonset 4:14PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 942 Pm Edt Fri Mar 24 2017
Rest of tonight..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Cloudy with light rain likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Light rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy. Light rain likely early in the evening...then a chance of light rain in the late evening and overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Cloudy with light rain likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Cloudy. A chance of Thunderstorms early in the evening. Rain likely until early morning...then a chance of light rain early in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. A chance of light rain early in the morning. A chance of rain late in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201703250800;;032275 FZUS63 KDTX 250143 GLFSC LAKE ST CLAIR FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 942 PM EDT FRI MAR 24 2017 WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. .SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE...AVERAGING 29.70 INCHES...CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STALLED THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT/ MONDAY OVER LAKE HURON AND WEAKEN TO A PRESSURE OF 29.80 INCHES. LCZ460-250800-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Clair Shores, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.49, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kdtx 251008
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
608 am edt Sat mar 25 2017

Aviation
A stalled surface front lingering just south of the michigan border
will bring a lengthy period of ifr (possibly lifr) conditions across
the region today and tonight. Increasing moisture field over a
cooling surface layer will result in low stratus and/or fog concerns
through most of the TAF forecast. In addition there will likely be
several waves of rainfall that sweep across the area that will need
timing refinement as the individual waves become more evident.

Models continue to advertise an afternoon lull in precipitation but
overall, low stratus and fog should prevail through the day.

For dtw... The terminal remains just south of the main band of
rainfall and ifr stratus this morning but models show rain filling
in early this morning. An afternoon lull looks to develop but ample
moisture should keep a fog and/or drizzle presence. Expect MVFR or
lower conditions through the period as the front responsible moves
very little through the forecast.

//dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for cigs AOB 5000 ft through the forecast.

* low for cigs/vsby AOB 200 ft or 1/4sm today or tonight.

Prev discussion
Issued at 306 am edt Sat mar 25 2017
discussion...

there is a tight low to mid level baroclinic zone draped across the
great lakes early this morning. Meanwhile, the circulation
associated with the upper low now churning over oklahoma is feeding
a plume of deep layer moisture into illinois. During the night, the
frontal boundary across lower michigan has remained active in two
locations; across northern lower mi within the 700-600mb layer and
across the central portions of the forecast area (m59 to i-69
corridors) closer to the 925mb portion of the frontal zone.

The hi res model suite all suggest the 925-850mb layer will become
more active during the early morning, aided by the ongoing deep
layer moisture feed across illinois. This will support increasing
coverage of showers across the forecast area (aside from perhaps
locals south of the i-94 corridor). Weak elevated instability
along/south of the i-96 corridor has supported some thunderstorms
overnight. The overall persistence of this weak instability will
continue to support some additional thunderstorms. Enhancing the
forcing along the front is the ageostrophic response within a 140+
knot upper jet streak centered over SRN quebec. This forcing will
persist through the first half of the day today. The upper jet
streak will then become focused much farther east this afternoon. In
fact, some mid level ridging will develop across the ERN great lakes
today as the upper low rotates into missouri. These factors will
fracture/weaken the frontal forcing, leading to a diminishing trend
to the coverage of showers during the course of the afternoon and
evening.

Despite the approach of the associated sfc low pressure into
missouri today, strengthening sfc high pressure across northern
ontario drove the sfc cold front across the forecast area last
night. Marine modification under the post frontal northeast winds
have resulted in a rather shallow but cold near sfc layer across se
mi. Temps actually dropped a good 20 to 30 degrees following fropa
last night. The easterly component of the sfc winds will persist
through the day, while post frontal stratus continues to expand
across SE mi. This will keep the front south of the area today and
will only support temps in the 30s and 40s, with the coolest
readings downwind of saginaw bay and lake huron with the NE winds.

The upper low will lift into the NRN ohio valley and SRN great lakes
on Sunday but will dampen considerably as it does so. There are
differences among the 00z model suite with respect to timing and
location of this system as it approaches the region. Some upper
level diffluence and mid level deformation forcing will support some
regions of more persistent rainfall, the locations of which carries
a high degree of uncertainty at this time. Indications among the 00z
model suite are that the better rain chance overnight into sun
morning will be to the west of north of SE mi, with rainfall
probabilities over the forecast area increasing Sun afternoon. The
low level wind fields will turn more southern Sunday as the
associated sfc low lifts across lower mi. This will allow temps to
make a run into the 50s.

Mid level subsidence will overspread the region by Monday as the
remnant upper wave lifts off the northeast. There will not be any
cold air intrusions in the wake of this system, so Monday highs will
possibly rise into the 60s, dependent upon the degree of lingering
low clouds. There has been a noted trend toward a weaker and farther
south mid level short wave feature Mon night into Tuesday. Precip
chances have therefore been lower accordingly. Mid level ridging and
sfc high pressure will dominate during the mid week period. Easterly
sfc flow will however keep temps somewhat on the cool side. The
approach of yet another upper low by the medium range suite will
warrant the next chance of rain the end of the work week.

Marine...

the slow moving frontal boundary has dropped south of lake erie
overnight bringing a wind shift to the northeast across all of the
eastern lakes. Winds will increase this morning reach 25 to 30 knots
across central lake huron which will lead to waves in excess of 4
feet impacting the nearshore waters over the northern thumb region
during the day. Small craft advisories are in effect for saginaw bay
and a portion of the nearshore waters through most of the tonight
period. High pressure building across ontario and quebec with a low
tracking into the western ohio valley will then cause the winds to
veer more easterly which will take the higher winds into northern
lake huron for the rest of tonight and Sunday. The weak low then
looks to slowly pass through lake huron on Monday, with generally
light winds right into Tuesday, but from the north behind the low.

Hydrology...

periodic showers will affect the region through the weekend as a
frontal boundary stalls just south of the state line. Though a
lengthy period with on and off showers, rainfall totals are only
expected reach 0.5 to 0.75 inches through the duration of the event.

The resultant runoff will likely increase flow rates and water
levels in local streams and rivers but flooding risks are mitigated
by the long duration of this rainfall.

Dtx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 1 am edt Sunday for lhz421-422-441.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Drk
discussion... Sc
marine... ... .Drk
hydrology... .Drk
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 1 mi39 min NNE 7 G 11 1022.7 hPa (+2.4)
AGCM4 21 mi51 min 38°F 1021.5 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 42 mi51 min 1021.9 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 43 mi51 min NNE 14 G 16 1021.8 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 49 mi39 min NNE 14 G 15 38°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
Last
24hr
SW10
G17
SW9
G18
SW11
G22
SW13
G19
SW11
G16
SW13
G16
SW13
G18
W7
G11
N24
NE18
G24
NE10
G14
N17
N18
G25
N16
N14
G18
N13
NE15
N10
G14
N11
N13
G16
N16
NE12
NE11
N12
1 day
ago
S8
G12
S12
G17
S13
G17
S12
G17
S15
G19
S11
G16
S12
G17
S13
G20
S18
S11
G15
S12
G15
S13
G17
S12
G19
S11
G17
S12
G16
S13
G19
S10
G13
S11
G15
S14
G19
SW11
G20
SW9
G14
SW11
G14
SW11
G14
SW12
G16
2 days
ago
NE29
NE22
NE19
G24
NE16
G21
NE13
G17
NE13
G16
NE14
G18
NE13
NE12
NE9
NE8
E5
SE5
S7
S3
S6
SW4
G7
SW4
G9
S2
G5
S5
S4
G7
S5
S6
G9
S7

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Detroit, Detroit City Airport, MI8 mi46 minNNE 86.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist40°F39°F97%1022.6 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI9 mi1.7 hrsN 710.00 miOvercast38°F38°F100%1021.4 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI16 mi45 minNNE 72.00 miLight Rain40°F37°F91%1022.7 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
Last 24hrSW13
G21
W13
G23
SW14
G21
W13
G21
SW14
G26
SW18
G24
W14SW15
G20
SW14SW8SW12E7N12N16
G21
NE8N8N8N8NE5NE6NE7N7N6N8
1 day agoSE9SE10SE12SE8SE8E9E11SE12S10SE8E10SE11SE9SE5SE5SE5S6S10S13
G19
SW8SW13
G20
SW11SW11SW10
2 days agoN13
G19
N14NE96N10
G15
N9
G15
N5CalmSE9E5SE6SE5E8E4E5S3S3SW3CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmSE5

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (9,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.