Tuesday, October24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Clair Shores, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:55AMSunset 6:36PM Tuesday October 24, 2017 7:12 AM EDT (11:12 UTC) Moonrise 11:18AMMoonset 9:04PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 942 Pm Edt Mon Oct 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday afternoon...
.gale warning in effect from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night...
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots. Light rain this evening...then a chance of light rain after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..South winds 20 to 25 knots becoming southwest to 30 knots late in the afternoon. Gusts to 35 knot gales. Mostly cloudy. A chance of light rain early in the morning...then light showers likely in the late morning and early afternoon. A chance of light showers late in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds to 30 knots with gusts to 40 knot gales diminishing to 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots. Cloudy with a chance of light showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Cloudy with a chance of light showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Mostly cloudy with a chance of light showers early in the evening...then partly cloudy in the late evening and overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201710240815;;314694 FZUS63 KDTX 240142 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 942 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure will deepen to 29.50 inches as it lifts into central Michigan this evening. The low is then forecast to rapidly deepen to 29.10 inches as lifts into the straits region late tonight. There will then be a slow but steady weakening of the low across the northern Great Lakes on Tuesday before it lifts north of the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. LCZ460-240815-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Clair Shores, MI
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location: 42.49, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 241038
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
638 am edt Tue oct 24 2017

Aviation
After a brief interval ofVFR ceilings, another influx of low level
moisture lifting into the area from the south will trend ceilings
downward this morning with intervals of showers. There is a
continued expectation of fluctations in ceilings between ifr and MVFR
during the course of the morning. The region of stronger forcing and
deep moist axis will slide west of the terminals this afternoon
(with the likely exception of mbs). This will provide an opportunity
for some diurnal recovery in ceiling heights toVFR. An upper wave
pivoting around the northern great lakes upper low will force the
deep moist axis to advance back into SE mi this evening, leading to
lowering ceilings and another round of light rain.

A deep upper low will hold nearly stationary across the eastern up
today. Despite a slight weakening in the winds this morning, ongoing
low level cold air advection and a tightening of the surface
gradient will support an uptick in the ssw winds again this
afternoon. Model soundings suggest gust nearing 30 knots at times.

For dtw... Light rain and variable ceilings heights will give way to
a slight lifting of cloud bases this afternoon. The southerly winds
will veer toward the south-southwest as mixing depths increase in
the 15 to 18z time frame. This will be accompanied by a notable
increase in the wind speeds.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high in ceilings at or below 5 kft through the period.

Prev discussion
Issued at 433 am edt Tue oct 24 2017
discussion...

negative tilted trough shear axis has lifted north of southeast
michigan early this morning, and heavy rain with the deformation
axis should remain northwest of tri-cities region, as deepening
surface low (988 mb near straights as of 7z) continues to track off
to the west-northwest. Although 3+ inches fell across northern
midland county, no reported flood problems, and will drop the flood
watch for midland bay.

Low level cold air has spread in quickly this morning, with surface
temps now predominantly in the upper 40s, and will only allow for
modest temperature recovery (low-mid 50s) today with the cloud cover.

Latest water vapor imagery shows massive upper level trough covering
the eastern two thirds of the united states. One well defined upper
level wave cold pool tracking over st. Louis. This wave upper level
pv which will be rounding northeast in between the central-eastern
great lakes this afternoon, as -10 c at 700 mb and -28 c at 500 mb
spreads in. Showalter index surface li's holding just above zero, so
will leave out mention of any thunder, except over lake huron erie
where the relatively warm waters and farther east locations could
support isolated activity.

Meanwhile, a well defined low level cold front will take shape on
the west side of the state as vort lob with the parent circulation
drops south. 850 mb temps lowering into the -2 to -4 c over the
western great lakes. High confidence in enhanced showers developing
off lake michigan, pushing into southeast michigan late this
afternoon and into the evening hours. Expecting additional qpf
amounts mostly around quarter of an inch, except up to half inch
across the tri-cities and flint vicinity with the longer prolonged
southwest band setting up during the day. Will be upping pops into
80-100 range with steep low level lapse rates generating capes
around 50 j kg, maximized around the zero isotherm. Due the
convective nature and low freezing levels, graupel is possible.

Upper wave coming over the top of the ridge over western canada will
dive southeast through the western great lakes Wednesday morning, re-
enforcing the cold air in place during the day, as 850 mb temps hold
around -3 c, which suggests 50 degrees for highs would be the high
end. Precipitation chances are bit challenging during Wednesday, as
we get into the subsidence wake of the previously mentioned upper
wave, and good drying subsidence occurs at 700 mb level. Still,
could be enough low level moisture convergence to generate some very
light showers with the cold westerly flow off lake michigan
continuing, and will hold onto low chance pops.

There is a significant trend in the canadian euro for the end of the
work week weekend, as it now appears the next strong upper wave cold
pool will be cutting off over the midwest (iowa) on Friday, keeping
southeast michigan on the milder wetter side into the first half of
the weekend, with a weaker shot of cold air (850 mb temps -2 to -4
c) for the second half of the weekend as the trough axis finally
moves over the central great lakes.

Marine...

deep low pressure will reside across the straits and eastern upper
michigan throughout the day. Colder air wrapping around this low
will sustain unstable conditions across the lakes, supporting gusty
south-southwest winds. The strongest winds will be across saginaw
bay out into the open waters of central lake huron where gusts of 35
to 40 knot gales are expected. After a slight weakening of the winds
across lake st clair and the michigan waters of lake erie this
morning, an increase in the gradient and deepening mixing depths
will support another chance for some gusts up to gale force this
afternoon.

Hydrology...

the heaviest rainfall has essentially ended. Additional rainfall
amounts this morning through tonight are forecast to be around a
half inch across the saginaw valley with less than a quarter across
the rest of southeast michigan. Through midnight, the highest
rainfall totals were 3 inches at midland and hemlock and 3.4 inches
at oil city (midland co). Rainfall across the rest of the saginaw
and bay city region has been between one and two inches. The
remainder of the forecast area has seen rainfall totals less than an
inch. The tittabawassee and saginaw river basins have thus had the
greater rainfall. Thus far rainfall totals have actually been
pushing 4 inches across the headwaters of the tittabawassee river.

This will support continued rises in these river levels and will
warrant further monitoring of river levels and river forecasts
throughout the day. The surface low will weaken as it lifts off to
the north tonight into Wednesday. This will support a gradual
decrease in winds and waves, with gale force gusts expected to end
across lake huron by daybreak Wednesday.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Gale warning until 8 am edt Wednesday for lhz362-363-462>464.

Gale warning until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422-441>443.

Gale warning until 8 pm edt this evening for lhz361.

Lake st clair... Gale warning until 4 am edt Wednesday for lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Gale warning until 4 am edt Wednesday for lez444.

Low water advisory until 10 am edt this morning for lez444.

Aviation... ..Sc
discussion... Sf
marine... ... .Sc
hydrology... .Sc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 1 mi73 min SSW 11 G 19 50°F 1000.7 hPa (+1.0)
45147 - Lake St Clair 12 mi73 min SW 19 G 25 53°F 59°F999.9 hPa (+1.2)
AGCM4 21 mi43 min 52°F 1000.2 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 42 mi43 min 50°F 999.5 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 43 mi43 min SW 11 G 17 49°F 999.4 hPa43°F
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 49 mi33 min S 22 G 25 51°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI8 mi20 minSSW 1210.00 miOvercast50°F46°F89%1000.3 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI9 mi75 minSSW 1310.00 miMostly Cloudy49°F47°F94%999.8 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI16 mi18 minS 810.00 miOvercast49°F46°F91%1000.3 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S7S7S12S10
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1 day agoS6S7S10S11SW10S10S14S15S13S11S9S8S8S12
G18
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S11S8S6S6S5S6S5S5S6
2 days agoS3S3S5S8S8SW11SW6S8S10SE8S5SE5SE5SE7S6S6S5S5S5S4S5S4S4SE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.