Sunday, November18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Clair Shores, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 5:07PM Sunday November 18, 2018 11:13 AM EST (16:13 UTC) Moonrise 3:08PMMoonset 2:11AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 357 Am Est Sun Nov 18 2018
Today..Light and variable winds. Snow until early afternoon then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Cloudy with a chance of light snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots backing to the southwest in the evening. Mostly cloudy early in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201811182115;;481069 FZUS63 KDTX 180857 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 357 AM EST Sun Nov 18 2018 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure averaging 30.20 inches will ridge across the central Great Lakes today and tonight followed by the next cold front Monday night. High pressure, 30.20 inches, moves in Tuesday and is followed quickly by yet another low pressure system for the midweek period. LCZ460-182115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Clair Shores, MI
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location: 42.49, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 181410
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
910 am est Sun nov 18 2018

Update
No update needed for the gridded forecast or messaging purposes.

Light snow continues to impact southeast michigan this morning.

Survey of available traffic cams confirms accumulations to grassy
areas. Heaviest returns have been captured slightly north of where
expected, but falls within the margin of error of current
capability. End time still appears 16-18z.

Prev discussion
Issued at 647 am est Sun nov 18 2018
aviation...

light to moderate snow will spread northward this morning ahead of a
frontal boundary draped just south of the michigan ohio border.

Northward extent of MVFR snow will just touch kptk, with kdtw, kdet,
and kyip experiencing a period of ifr moderate snow 12z-15z. Around
an inch of accumulation expected at the i-94 terminals with peak
rates around a quarter of an inch per hour, with a few tenths at
kptk. Kfnt and kmbs will remain dry withVFR stratus. Snow ends 16z-
18z with slowly improving ceilings the remainder of the afternoon
and a return toVFR visibility. High pressure ridging into the
region tonight will offer an opportunity for stratus to clear out
with increasingly dry air in place. Light northerly flow at taf
onset will become west southwest by the afternoon hours.

For dtw... Main window for impactful snow 12z-15z, with predominant
ifr and possible lifr conditions. Snow ends 16z-18z with near to
slightly above freezing surface temperatures helping to limit paved
surfaces accumulation around an inch. Southwest traffic operations
with light wind.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for cigs AOB 5kft through the afternoon. Low this evening and
tonight.

* high for ptype of snow through the morning.

* low for ceilings 200 ft and visibilities 1 2 sm 12z-15z.

Prev discussion...

issued at 350 am est Sun nov 18 2018
discussion...

a band of snow continues to organize and intensify over the ohio
border region prior to sunrise. It is expected to last through much
of the morning and then shift eastward around noon. During this
time, accumulation in the 1 to 2 inch range is likely with localized
3 inch amounts in lenawee and monroe counties tapering to a half
inch or less toward the m-59 corridor up to port huron. High
pressure keeping the saginaw valley and northern thumb dry then
moves across all areas during the afternoon and maintains dry weather
tonight.

The band of snow is being driven by a strongly sheared upper level
wave and a sharp entrance region of the upper jet extending from the
central plains across the central great lakes. There is also a well
defined wave of low pressure rippling along the surface front over
the ohio valley as a reflection of the larger scale vertical motion
field. These larger scale features are strong enough to resist
surface pressure rises over the northern great lakes and maintain an
active mid level frontal position over the ohio border region.

Forcing within the band is a strong combination of isentropic ascent
and ageostrophic circulation under the entrance region of the upper
jet. Model cross sections indicate good slope in theta-e surfaces
through the frontal zone with pockets of instability near the ohio
border in the 700-500 mb layer. This is expected to result in a
narrower band of higher snow intensity across lenawee and monroe
counties with just enough wavering to produce briefly higher rate as
far north as i-96 696 and a sharp gradient on the north flank of the
band up to about the m-59 corridor. Model QPF is tweaked toward the
high end of the solution space given 2-3 g kg specific humidity in
the 850-700 mb layer. Snow ratio is also expected to range around
13:1 despite surface temperature hovering in the lower 30s as the dgz
is favorably positioned within the vertical motion field. The
relatively quick eastward progression of the upper wave is about the
only limiting factor for the 1-2 locally 3 inch accumulation before
the band moves eastward around noon. The duration and amount are not
quite to advisory threshold but this will be monitored, especially
for lenawee and monroe counties.

High pressure builds into southern lower michigan and brings a
clearing trend during the evening, especially across the tri cities
and thumb. This sets up a favorable radiational cooling scenario for
a sharp temperature drop after sunset. Low temperatures near 20 are
likely in that area by midnight before high clouds thicken
overnight. The increasing cloud trend occurs ahead of the next short
wave moving into the northern great lakes from central canada. Snow
with the system is held north of the saginaw valley through Monday
as the surface low moves through the straits region. Southwest
surface wind ahead of the low helps lift temperatures into the mid
and upper 30s across SE michigan but snow is still expected as the
precip type when the trailing cold front sweeps through the region
Monday night. The front looks strong enough in model data for snow
showers of respectable intensity and boosted even more by lake
enhancement. Borderline likely pops look good with accumulation less
than 1 inch at this point given the speed of the frontal passage.

The Monday night front supplies another surge of arctic air that is
projected to be cold enough to possibly confine high temperatures
below freezing Tuesday afternoon. This is followed by yet another
short wave in the cold northwest flow for Tuesday night into
Wednesday. The system appears moisture starved in model data as it
moves into the already cold and dry air mass over the central great
lakes. High pressure follows that maintains below normal
temperatures through thanksgiving but also supports dry weather for
the holiday. A rapid pattern change and warming trend then remains
advertised in global model solutions for the weekend.

Marine...

weak high pressure will ridge eastward across the central great
lakes today as a weak upper-level disturbance moves along a frontal
boundary draped across the northern ohio valley. Moderate
southwesterly flow of 20-30 knots will develop today as the pressure
gradient tightens between the center of high pressure located over
the central plains and low pressure tracking across southern hudson
bay. The strongest winds will occur over the northern and central
lake huron basin. Moderate southwesterly flow will continue into
Monday before a cold front drops south across the great lakes
switching winds post-front to the north with accompanying chances
for snow showers. A clipper system will then track southeast across
the northern great lakes during the midweek period, with the
potential for accompanying northwest winds to reach gale force.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Update... ... .Cb
aviation... ..Irl
discussion... Bt
marine... ... .Irl
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 1 mi74 min NW 1.9 G 2.9 32°F 1025.4 hPa (-0.3)
AGCM4 21 mi44 min 32°F 46°F1024.4 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 42 mi44 min 32°F 1024.1 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 43 mi44 min WSW 5.1 G 7 32°F 1024.1 hPa28°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI8 mi81 minN 01.25 miLight Snow Fog/Mist32°F30°F92%1025.7 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI9 mi78 minN 01.50 miLight Snow Fog/Mist32°F32°F100%1025.9 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI16 mi79 minN 01.50 miLight Snow32°F28°F87%1025.4 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW65NW6NW4NW4NW4N6N5NE3E4E4NE4NE4NE5NE3NE3CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmN3CalmN3
1 day agoW11W11W11
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SW7W8W7W6W9NW8W8W4W4W5W4NW53
2 days agoE3E5E6SE6SE5SE4SE3SE3S5SW4SW4SW9W5W8W7W9SW9SW10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.