Monday, March25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Clair Shores, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 7:50PM Monday March 25, 2019 5:52 PM EDT (21:52 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 9:27AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 1005 Am Edt Mon Mar 25 2019
Rest of today..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots after midnight...then increasing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and early afternoon...then becoming light and variable early in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..Light and variable winds becoming south 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny becoming mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. A chance of light showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy with rain likely and a chance of snow. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201903252015;;319642 FZUS63 KDTX 251405 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1005 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2019 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure at 30.50 inches will build directly over the Great Lakes region Monday through Wednesday. A strengthening low pressure system will track across central Canada by Thursday, driving a cold front through the Central Lakes. LCZ460-252015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Clair Shores, MI
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location: 42.49, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 251929
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
329 pm edt Mon mar 25 2019

Discussion
Combination of building upper level ridge and existing confluent
flow aloft gradually ushers cool canadian airmass east of the area
during the next 36 hours as the upper pattern progresses along. In
the meantime, deep layer subsidence and building surface high
pressure will ensure cloud free skies through Tuesday while 850mb
temperatures stubbornly hover near -8c. The Sun angle is high enough
to argue for very modest airmass modification, but little more. Thus
highs on Tuesday will likely be just a couple degrees warmer than
today at best. Slackening northeast flow coincident with 1030mb high
pressure translating overhead will provide an exception over the
interior thumb where temps will have the potential to climb several
degrees over today, into the mid 40s, by the end of the peak heating
period. Diurnal temperature range will be typical of early spring,
with lows under calm winds and clear skies falling into the teens
tonight degrees per 12z met mav blend, providing good continuity
with the inherited forecast. Confidence is bolstered by dewpoints
already in the teens and continuing to fall. Lowered Tuesday night's
old blended grids several degrees as weakly defined nocturnal return
flow will do little to inhibit radiating. Modest coverage of
mid high cloud associated otherwise inconsequential weak mid-level
troughing will at least put a floor on low temps in the low 20s.

Again, no issues with met mav blend. Stout southwest return flow
will be well underway on Wednesday while a more mild airmass
characterized by 850mb temps nearing 0c completes its eastward trek
from the upper plains to the lower peninsula. Highs no worse than 50
degrees in most spots.

A weak cold frontal boundary will push south across michigan before
stalling somewhere across northern lower or farther south, closer to
the metro region, which will provide the chance to see rain showers
starting Thursday morning. Prior to feeling the impacts of the cold
front, temperatures will warm up nicely with daytime highs peaking
in the mid to upper-50s. The chance for rain will persist late
Thursday into Friday morning, mainly across the metro area and north
of towards flint and port huron, as the cold front settles across
southern michigan. The advancing cold front will bring in cooler air
Friday as highs will struggle to push past the upper-40s.

A low pressure system will then advance northeast from northern
tx ok into wisconsin Friday morning into Saturday morning,
strengthening slightly from 1006mb down to 1000 mb and will cause
the stalled frontal boundary to retreat back towards the north. This
will set up a baroclinic zone across southern michigan, however, at
this time uncertainty remains high as to where exactly the front
will stall which will have impacts on temperatures and area where
more persistent heavier rain will fall. Latest 12z GFS model run
sets up h850 temperatures up to 8c across the mi oh border and near
0c over bay midland county. The canadian and ECMWF shows a similar
set- up, although with a gentler temperature gradient. In any case,
additional model runs will be needed to pinpoint where the frontal
boundary will set up. Otherwise, precipitation will turn likely
Saturday morning and afternoon as low pressure travels across
michigan. A wintry mix and or snow will be possible early Saturday
and again late Saturday as temperatures may drop into the low to mid-
30s.

The passage of the low pressure system will allow a strong cold
front to push across michigan Sunday, with h850 temperatures
dropping down to an average of -11c by Sunday afternoon. Temperature
highs failing to peak beyond 40 degrees for the day will not be out
of the question. Otherwise, a broad high pressure system will fill in
across the central plains up into the great lakes early next week
and will bring a period of dry weather.

Marine
Canadian high pressure will build into the area this evening and
tonight and persist across the region through Wednesday. This will
bring favorable marine conditions in terms of winds and wave into
Wednesday. Southwest flow is then expected to increase significantly
Wednesday night and Thursday as the center of high pressure drifts
to the atlantic seaboard.

Prev discussion
Issued at 105 pm edt Mon mar 25 2019
aviation...

high pressure will build over the area during the next 24 hours.

This will maintain clear skies through Tuesday. Northeast winds
around 10 knots this afternoon will weaken to 5 knots or below this
evening and remain light through the remainder of the forecast as
the center of this high builds over the area.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Dg am
marine... ... .Dg
aviation... ..Dg
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 1 mi52 min NE 14 G 16 36°F 1024.4 hPa (-0.7)
AGCM4 21 mi52 min 37°F 37°F1023.9 hPa (-0.3)
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 42 mi52 min 37°F 1024.5 hPa (-0.4)
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 43 mi52 min 1024.5 hPa (-0.5)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 49 mi52 min E 9.9 G 12 36°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI8 mi59 minENE 1110.00 miFair41°F8°F25%1024.4 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI9 mi2 hrsNNE 1310.00 miA Few Clouds40°F13°F34%1024.8 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI16 mi57 minNE 8 G 1510.00 miFair41°F0°F18%1024.4 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW11W9SW5W5E12NE12
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N10NE11N10NE11NE9NE9NE12NE11
G19
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1 day agoW9W6W7S4S4S4SW5SW6W7W5W5SW5SW4SW3S4NW3SW6SW5SW4SW6SW8S11SW14
G18
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2 days agoNW16
G23
N17
G25
N16
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N10N4NW3NW6NW7
G15
NW7NW6NW5NW6NW5NW3NW3NW7NW66NW6W63W7W6W9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.