Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for St. Clair Shores, MI
March 28, 2024 10:04 AM EDT (14:04 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:17 AM Sunset 7:54 PM Moonrise 10:40 PM Moonset 7:37 AM |
LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 335 Am Edt Thu Mar 28 2024
Today - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight - West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the east in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy. A chance of light showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday - East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon - .then becoming north 10 to 15 knots in the evening. Mostly cloudy with a chance of light showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of light showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Light showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ400
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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 281031 AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 631 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Cooler, drier weather continues through Thursday.
- Temperatures return to around or slightly above average Friday into early next week.
- Next chances for rain look to arrive Saturday.
AVIATION
The plume of clouds which streamed across Se Mi overnight are now exiting to the east. Recent satellite data is showing some additional clouds developing off southern Lake Michigan. In light of the ambient dry air, the expectation is for these to generally erode with the onset of daytime heating late this morning. This will leave generally clear skies today. Daytime growth of the mixed layer will result in a modest uptick in the WSW winds as 15 to 20 knot winds will be in the mixed layer.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* None.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 250 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
DISCUSSION...
SE MI remains on the southern fringe of an arctic airmass as upper troughing holds across the central Great Lakes. While the airmass is thermally unchanged from Wednesday, 850mb temps holding around -7C, last remnants of low level moisture from the system earlier this week were stripped out by last evening (28.00Z KDTX RAOB sounding had PW of 0.17"). This in combination with continuing subsidence from broad surface high pressure over the Mississippi river valley leads to mostly sunny to sunny skies today with any cloud coverage confined to passing cirrus. Ample insolation is still expected to overcome the colder start with forecast highs in the upper 40s to around 50 for the southern half of the region. Northern areas more favored towards mid 40s owing to closer proximity to the core of the airmass.
Low amplitude ridging currently over the Plains eventually builds into the Great Lakes Friday shunting troughing to the Northeast.
Given more zonal nature of the ridge, WAA into southern lower MI won't be particularly strong, though still sufficient to bring 850mb temps back into the low/mid positive single digits (C)- which are a few degrees above normal for late March (average is around 0C). With clear skies still likely in place, Friday's highs push into the 50s for nearly all of the area, save for the Thumb, with southern areas having potential to reach well into the mid 50s.
Midlevel shortwave riding along the ridge is set to reach the southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley early Saturday. While certain aspects of this system are in good model agreement: narrow ribbon of stronger isentropic ascent supported overall by a ribbon of Gulf moisture pulled north along the Mississippi; exact track and broadness of the circulation still carry a fair amount of uncertainty. Trends have favored a slightly more diffuse parent PV anomaly resulting in a broader region of weak ascent/light precip- offering rain chances for the majority of SE MI daytime Saturday.
However, the surface low track has trended further over IN/OH which, should these outcomes hold, would keep the best isentropic ascent and subsequent higher rainfall amounts likewise south of the state line. While still a moving target, latest NBM looks reasonable based on current solution space with PoPs lowered to chance (40-50%) for all SE MI outside of areas near the state border which still carry likelies (~60%).
System vacates the region overnight Saturday allowing for a drier, still mild, finish to the weekend Sunday. Active pattern looks to make a return Monday into Tuesday as the lingering baroclinic zone draped across the Midwest and Ohio Valley/southern Great Lakes activates in response to a potent Pacific mid-upper trough ejecting out of the Intermountain West into the Plains.
MARINE...
High pressure builds in across the southern and western Great Lakes today which maintains a southwest wind direction across the central Lakes. Wind speeds will be mainly around 10 to 15 knots but the southwest fetch down Saginaw Bay will produce locally higher winds up to around 20 knots there. The high pressure maintains control through the late week until the next low pressure moves through on Saturday, bringing rain and snow to parts of the region. At this time winds look to stay below marine headline criteria, but a shift to more of a northerly direction will likely accompany the system.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 631 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Cooler, drier weather continues through Thursday.
- Temperatures return to around or slightly above average Friday into early next week.
- Next chances for rain look to arrive Saturday.
AVIATION
The plume of clouds which streamed across Se Mi overnight are now exiting to the east. Recent satellite data is showing some additional clouds developing off southern Lake Michigan. In light of the ambient dry air, the expectation is for these to generally erode with the onset of daytime heating late this morning. This will leave generally clear skies today. Daytime growth of the mixed layer will result in a modest uptick in the WSW winds as 15 to 20 knot winds will be in the mixed layer.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* None.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 250 AM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024
DISCUSSION...
SE MI remains on the southern fringe of an arctic airmass as upper troughing holds across the central Great Lakes. While the airmass is thermally unchanged from Wednesday, 850mb temps holding around -7C, last remnants of low level moisture from the system earlier this week were stripped out by last evening (28.00Z KDTX RAOB sounding had PW of 0.17"). This in combination with continuing subsidence from broad surface high pressure over the Mississippi river valley leads to mostly sunny to sunny skies today with any cloud coverage confined to passing cirrus. Ample insolation is still expected to overcome the colder start with forecast highs in the upper 40s to around 50 for the southern half of the region. Northern areas more favored towards mid 40s owing to closer proximity to the core of the airmass.
Low amplitude ridging currently over the Plains eventually builds into the Great Lakes Friday shunting troughing to the Northeast.
Given more zonal nature of the ridge, WAA into southern lower MI won't be particularly strong, though still sufficient to bring 850mb temps back into the low/mid positive single digits (C)- which are a few degrees above normal for late March (average is around 0C). With clear skies still likely in place, Friday's highs push into the 50s for nearly all of the area, save for the Thumb, with southern areas having potential to reach well into the mid 50s.
Midlevel shortwave riding along the ridge is set to reach the southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley early Saturday. While certain aspects of this system are in good model agreement: narrow ribbon of stronger isentropic ascent supported overall by a ribbon of Gulf moisture pulled north along the Mississippi; exact track and broadness of the circulation still carry a fair amount of uncertainty. Trends have favored a slightly more diffuse parent PV anomaly resulting in a broader region of weak ascent/light precip- offering rain chances for the majority of SE MI daytime Saturday.
However, the surface low track has trended further over IN/OH which, should these outcomes hold, would keep the best isentropic ascent and subsequent higher rainfall amounts likewise south of the state line. While still a moving target, latest NBM looks reasonable based on current solution space with PoPs lowered to chance (40-50%) for all SE MI outside of areas near the state border which still carry likelies (~60%).
System vacates the region overnight Saturday allowing for a drier, still mild, finish to the weekend Sunday. Active pattern looks to make a return Monday into Tuesday as the lingering baroclinic zone draped across the Midwest and Ohio Valley/southern Great Lakes activates in response to a potent Pacific mid-upper trough ejecting out of the Intermountain West into the Plains.
MARINE...
High pressure builds in across the southern and western Great Lakes today which maintains a southwest wind direction across the central Lakes. Wind speeds will be mainly around 10 to 15 knots but the southwest fetch down Saginaw Bay will produce locally higher winds up to around 20 knots there. The high pressure maintains control through the late week until the next low pressure moves through on Saturday, bringing rain and snow to parts of the region. At this time winds look to stay below marine headline criteria, but a shift to more of a northerly direction will likely accompany the system.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI | 1 mi | 65 min | SW 2.9G | 35°F | 30.15 | |||
AGCM4 | 21 mi | 47 min | 37°F | 38°F | 30.09 | |||
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI | 42 mi | 47 min | 36°F | 30.07 | ||||
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI | 43 mi | 47 min | WSW 5.1G | 35°F | 30.07 | 25°F | ||
PBWM4 | 43 mi | 47 min | 36°F | 30.08 | ||||
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH | 49 mi | 65 min | SW 13G | 35°F | 30.13 | 29°F |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KDET COLEMAN A YOUNG MUNI,MI | 8 sm | 71 min | WSW 07 | 9 sm | Clear | 36°F | 25°F | 64% | 30.13 | |
KMTC SELFRIDGE ANGB,MI | 9 sm | 68 min | SSW 08 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 34°F | 25°F | 69% | 30.10 | |
CYQG WINDSOR,CN | 15 sm | 64 min | SW 08 | 9 sm | A Few Clouds | 34°F | 28°F | 80% | 30.14 | |
KVLL OAKLAND/TROY,MI | 16 sm | 29 min | SW 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 36°F | 25°F | 64% | 30.14 |
Detroit, MI,
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