Wednesday, January24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Clair Shores, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:50AMSunset 5:37PM Wednesday January 24, 2018 12:23 AM EST (05:23 UTC) Moonrise 11:55AMMoonset 12:17AM Illumination 50% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 346 Pm Est Tue Jan 23 2018
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Mostly cloudy.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy.
Wednesday night..Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy in the evening becoming partly cloudy.
Thursday..Light and variable winds becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Partly Sunny.
Thursday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots in the evening. Mostly Sunny becoming Sunny early in the afternoon becoming mostly clear.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers.
Sunday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Waves omitted due to ice coverage.
LCZ460 Expires:201801240915;;893552 FZUS63 KDTX 232046 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 346 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure, 29.40 inches, is tracking through eastern Lake Huron into Ontario this afternoon and will reach southwestern Quebec by tonight. Moderate northwest winds with a brief period of gales will trail this system through tonight. Lighter winds will prevail tomorrow and Thursday as weak surface high pressure settles over the region. LCZ460-240915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Clair Shores, MI
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location: 42.49, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 240448
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1148 pm est Tue jan 23 2018

Aviation
Although there was some breaks in the stratus across central
michigan earlier this evening, stratus now completely blankets the
region. The 00z dtx and apx soundings indicate this moisture is
trapped under a fairly deep low level inversion. Subtle low level
cold air advection has been lifting bases slightly. This trend
suggests bases should primarily fall in the 2-3k ft range through
wed morning. Continued low level cold air advection and diurnal
heating is likely to nudge the stratus deck up toward or over 3k
feet Wed afternoon.

For dtw... A steady decrease in the west-northwest winds will
continue through the early morning hours as the gradient relaxes.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings less than 5000 ft Wed morning. Moderate wed
afternoon.

Prev discussion
Issued at 338 pm est Tue jan 23 2018
discussion...

surface trough transiting the CWA is supporting light snow showers
this afternoon leading to nothing more than minor accums. Coverage
and intensity will continue to decrease as large scale forcing and
better moisture strips east. Cold advection within gusty northwest
wind will continue through the night as 850mb temps fall from around
-8c at press time to -13c Wednesday morning. Temps in the mid to
upper 20s over wisconsin and northern lower support going forecast
lows in the upper teens and low 20s, except the far south CWA where
cold FROPA has yet to occur this aftn and arrival of coldest air
will be delayed. Some potential for lower temps across the north as
trailing dry advection, which is already advancing the back edge of
lake clouds over lake superior, works into the area from the NW and
potentially clears out low cloud as the gradient slackens post 06z.

A run to the low teens is not out of the question in the thumb, but
remained conservative given uncertainties and lack of snowcover.

Thermal trough directly overhead to start Wednesday will ensure a
low ceiling on temps. Subsidence beneath incoming upper ridge will
reinforce existing inversion, supporting a more pessimistic cloud
forecast overall for Wednesday, especially considering mid high
clouds streaming associated with the trough over the northern great
plains will be streaming overhead. No qualms with a mid to upper 20s
forecast for highs, keeping in mind some underachieving potential
will exist conditional on opacity coverage of boundary layer clouds.

Confluent upper flow in advance of upper ridging will force surface
high pressure across the area early Thursday, scouring any remaining
low clouds before emerging return flow signals the arrival of a
shallow warm front likely to cause low clouds to return for at least
part of the day thurs and a modest recovery in temps of about +5
over Wednesday's values.

An upper level ridge axis crossing the region on Friday and low
pressure moving eastward through central ontario will bring
increasing southwesterly flow through the day allowing highs to
approach 50 under mostly sunny skies. The low pressure will then
pull a cold front slowly eastward across lower michigan on Saturday.

Increasing moisture transport ahead of the front will bring rain
shower chances late Friday that will continue throughout Saturday as
temperatures remain well above average in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Model solutions continue to differ on the exact details of frontal
timing and where the greatest moisture transport will take place
ahead of the front. The GFS keeps the bulk of moisture east of se
michigan on Saturday while the euro and cmc pull moisture directly
over SE michigan late Saturday. After the frontal passage,
temperatures will fall slightly into the 30s on Sunday before a
secondary cold front brings a stronger push of cold air to the
region late Sunday into Monday. A chance for snow showers will
accompany the second frontal passage as temperatures return closer
to average with highs in the low 30s and lows in the upper 10s by
Monday.

Marine...

low pressure centered over central lake huron this morning will lift
northeast into ontario during the daylight period. Moderate
northerly winds currently residing north of this low over the north
half of lake huron will expand across the entire lake huron basin as
the low exits. This will be accompanied by colder air, which may
lead to a brief period of gusts to near gales late this afternoon
through early tonight. Winds and gusts will decrease Wednesday as
weak high pressure lifts across the region. Relatively light winds
will remain in place through the end of the week. Another increase
in winds will come for the weekend.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Sc
discussion... Jvc jd
marine... ... .Dg
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 1 mi64 min NW 9.9 G 22 27°F 1016.3 hPa
AGCM4 21 mi54 min 27°F 1015.1 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 42 mi54 min 25°F 1014.7 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 43 mi54 min N 8 G 13 25°F 1014.7 hPa18°F
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 49 mi44 min NNW 21 G 24 29°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI8 mi31 minN 1010.00 miOvercast27°F19°F72%1016.8 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI9 mi28 minNW 1010.00 miOvercast26°F21°F83%1016.7 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI16 mi29 minNNW 610.00 miOvercast28°F21°F76%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S5SW9SW8SW7SW8SW15
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1 day agoE3NE3E3E3NE3E4E4E5CalmE5SE4SE7S10S12
G17
S10S10S9S10S9S9S9S9SE6S8
2 days agoW8W6SW3CalmS3S3CalmS3S3CalmS7SW5W3CalmCalmE7E5SE6E3E3E3E3E4E3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.