Monday, August21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Clair Shores, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 8:24PM Monday August 21, 2017 2:00 PM EDT (18:00 UTC) Moonrise 5:28AMMoonset 7:30PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 952 Am Edt Mon Aug 21 2017
Rest of today..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy this evening becoming mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Mostly clear. Showers and Thunderstorms likely early in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny becoming mostly Sunny early in the afternoon becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201708212015;;724682 FZUS63 KDTX 211352 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 952 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A weak front will stall over central Lake Huron today as low pressure develops over the Midwest at 29.80 inches. The low will deepen to 29.50 inches as it reaches the Straits by Tuesday morning before pulling a strong cold front through Lake Huron and Lower Michigan during the day. Strong northwest wind will follow the front Tuesday night before high pressure arrives in the western Great Lakes Wednesday. This high will then drift across the area through the second half of the week. LCZ460-212015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Clair Shores, MI
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location: 42.49, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 211734
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
134 pm edt Mon aug 21 2017

Aviation
Mostly cirrus debris from all the upstream convection to deal with
today but there will be some afternoon CU developing which may
impact the detroit area terminals for a bit this afternoon. Could
see some isolated showers this afternoon but coverage will be too
low to include in a TAF at this time. Better chances for showers and
thunderstorms come Tuesday morning as a low pressure system tracks
northeast along a stalled boundary through northern mi. A trailing
cold front will then swing through Tuesday afternoon. Looks like the
best chance for showers and maybe thunderstorms will come in the 10-
14z window tomorrow. MVFR ifr conditions will be possible with
heavier storms. Winds will get gusty out of the southwest ahead of
the cold front.

For dtw... VFR will consist of ceiling above 5000 ft during the
morning with some scattered cumulus during the afternoon. There
remains low potential for an isolated shower or storm during the
afternoon as a few small isolated showers are already developing
upstream. Best chance for storms will come Tuesday morning with a
secondary chance along the cold front in the afternoon.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for a thunderstorm during the afternoon. Medium Tuesday
morning.

Prev discussion
Issued at 336 am edt Mon aug 21 2017
discussion...

main bulk of unsettled weather will take place in the first portion
of the forecast before things dry out. An upper level low,
currently situated over the hudson bay, will rotate down across
ontario through the beginning of the week. A large trough
associated with this low will come across the great lakes region as
an associated surface low forms out over the northern plains and
travels east towards the area. This system will bring in increasing
chances for rain and storms to southeast michigan beginning late
this afternoon through Tuesday. As the surface low begins to form
out to the west today, southerly winds over the area will start to
bring in more moisture resulting in another warm and more humid day.

This humid airmass will be brief as the cold front brings in cooler
and drier air by Wednesday.

Some patchy areas of fog are expected to develop as more moisture
rich air filters in, before fig dissipates shortly after sunrise.

Earlier this morning, there was some thunderstorm activity that
fired over eastern illinois and has been slowly moving
east southeast. This will bring in some cloud debris to portions of
the CWA through the morning. This afternoon there will be a slight
chance for rain and a few isolated storms as surface based activity
may develop as a result of diurnal heating and increasing moisture
advection into the area. Better chances look to be over northern
portions of the CWA before chances increases over the entire cwa
coming into Tuesday. However, this does not bode too well for people
wanting to enjoy the partial solar eclipse over southeast michigan
as there looks to be clouds hanging around, although there is
potential for a few breaks in those clouds.

Chances increase overnight and into Tuesday as a cold front
approaches the area. This front will be in place to the north of the
area today before sagging across the CWA tomorrow. There is also a
thunderstorm complex, currently situated over western iowa, which
will move eastward during the early morning hours. Lots of
uncertainly with this complex and how it holds together. This may
also help in developing some activity over the area later today.

Cold front looks to be pushing eastward across the area starting
early Tuesday morning before quickly moving through by Tuesday
evening. This will provide the focus for rain and storms during the
day. Severe weather looks to stay minimal as instability stays lower
due to cloud cover and early timing. Cooler and drier air then
filters in behind the departing cold front Tuesday night. Quiet
weather then comes back into the picture for the remainder of the
week as high pressure moves in over the area from the northwest.

Temperatures cool off slightly back into the 70s for the second half
of the week before warming slightly back to near 80 this weekend.

Marine...

a weak front will stall over northern to central lake huron while
producing light and variable wind today before moving back northward
tonight ahead of the next low pressure system. Light southerly wind
will continue over the remainder of marine areas until increasing
from the southwest tonight as low pressure deepens while moving into
the straits region. Wind and waves will remain below SCA thresholds
leaving widespread showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the
front as the primary marine weather impact before the frontal
passage. Strong northwest wind behind the front will have gusts
reaching 30 knots over the open waters of lake huron Tuesday night
as colder air spills into the region. As it stands now, the wind
pattern will be from the northwest direction enough to keep the
highest waves offshore of the southern lake huron nearshore zones
before veering toward the north and weakening during Wednesday. The
incoming air mass will be cold enough to produce enough instability
over the water for marginal waterspout potential Wednesday into
Thursday.

Hydrology...

a low pressure system developing over the plains states today will
reach the straits region by Tuesday morning and pull a strong cold
front through lower michigan. Moisture humidity will increase
considerably ahead of the front and provide fuel for numerous
showers and thunderstorms late tonight through Tuesday. Basin
average 24 hour rainfall totals are expected to be in the 0.25 to
0.50 inch range with locally higher amounts near 1 inch possible
where multiple thunderstorms occur. The potential for flooding is
expected to be limited by the fast movement of the associated cold
front which is projected to exit eastward by Tuesday evening.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Rbp
discussion... Sp
marine... ... .Bt
hydrology... .Bt
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 1 mi60 min SE 8 G 8.9 76°F 1019 hPa (-0.6)
45147 - Lake St Clair 12 mi60 min ESE 3.9 G 5.8 77°F 75°F1018 hPa
AGCM4 21 mi42 min 81°F 1018.5 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 42 mi42 min 87°F 1018 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 43 mi42 min S 7 G 8 85°F 1018.1 hPa63°F
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 49 mi40 min ESE 6 G 7 78°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI8 mi67 minS 610.00 miFair87°F66°F50%1018.2 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI9 mi2 hrsSE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F73°F70%1018.7 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI16 mi66 minESE 310.00 miFair87°F61°F42%1019.3 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S10S9S6S8S5S4S5SE5S4CalmS4S3N4CalmCalmCalmCalmS4SW5CalmSE5S6S8
1 day agoNW10NW10NW8NW11
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NW6NW4CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW4W3CalmW3CalmCalmCalmS5S7SW9SW5SW5
2 days agoW10
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W8W6W5SW3SW4SW4W5W4W4W5W6W7W7NW8W9NW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.