Saturday, June24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Clair Shores, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 9:14PM Saturday June 24, 2017 3:10 AM EDT (07:10 UTC) Moonrise 5:39AMMoonset 8:45PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 353 Pm Edt Fri Jun 23 2017
Tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely late afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..West winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and early afternoon...then increasing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers early in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. A chance of light showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy. A chance of light showers until early morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots in the evening. Partly Sunny becoming mostly cloudy until early evening becoming partly cloudy. A chance of light showers in the morning...then showers likely in the afternoon and evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201706240815;;705973 FZUS63 KDTX 231953 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 353 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Weak low pressure, averaging 29.60 inches, tracking across the central Great Lakes will pull a cold front through the area, ushering in quieter weather tonight. Broad low pressure will then linger over the Great Lakes through the weekend, providing unseasonably cool and slightly unsettled weather. LCZ460-240815-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Clair Shores, MI
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location: 42.49, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 240405
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1205 am edt Sat jun 24 2017

Aviation
Cooler and much drier air has filtered into southeastern michigan
this evening. Impressive shortwave feature with some linkage to
upper level jet entrance region has resulted in aggressive
altostratus and a tiny amount of virga over southern lower michigan
this evening. Cold advection and stability just too tough to
overcome. A ribbon of midlevel moisture will linger back over the
central great lakes late tonight keeping altostratus around. This
ribbon of moisture will then result in boundary layer cumulus
development late Saturday morning along with some shower and
isolated thunderstorm potential over the northern CWA Saturday
afternoon.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium confidence in ceilings AOB 5kft Saturday afternoon.

Prev discussion
Issued at 347 pm edt Fri jun 23 2017
discussion...

redevelopment of showers and a few thunderstorms will continue
through late afternoon before cooler and less humid air arrives
behind the cold front and brings an end to activity by early
evening. Measures of instability will be the main factor to monitor
for convective intensity with this round. Hourly mesoanalysis
indicates MLCAPE around 500 j kg, which could build toward 1000 j kg
by late afternoon, while model soundings show a mostly narrow cape
profile. There is still some wind in the mid levels, 30-40 kts in
the 700-500 mb layer, which could help with a precip loaded wind
gust around 40 mph. This, along with locally heavy rainfall, will be
the main concerns as pw lingers around 1.7 inches. Mid afternoon
radar trend have shown some tendency for training patterns,
especially south of metro detroit. Otherwise convective clusters
will have orientation along the moisture gradient and normal to the
westerly mean flow. This and the postfrontal negative theta-e
advection at and below 850 mb will guide activity out of SE michigan
around 00z.

A clearing trend with cooler and less humid air will follow the exit
of early evening showers storms through the overnight and Saturday
morning. A mostly sunny start to the day will help temperatures warm
from lows in the 50s which will lead to a generous cumulus response
during the afternoon. This will occur under cool temperatures aloft
carried in by the upper level trough now over the midwest which will
bring 500 mb temperatures from around -9 c today to around -18 c
Saturday afternoon and evening. Daytime heating that will lift high
temps into the lower 70s will produce at least scattered convection
over lower michigan. Upstream observations over the midwest today
support model output suggesting scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms as surface dewpoint lingers in the 50s and produces
surface based CAPE around 500 j kg. A cycle with strong diurnal
dependence will then continue with a diminishing trend Saturday
night and redevelopment Sunday as the next surge of cold advection
aloft moves into the southern great lakes. Associated low level
thickness cooling will also limit high temperatures to the upper 60s
most areas and lower 70s around metro detroit.

By the start of next week, the region will continue to reside in
longwave troughing. Currently, models have a shortwave moving
across the great lakes region which will bring another round of
possible rain and thunderstorms on Monday. The trough is then
quickly replaced by upper level riding as surface high pressure
begins to build in from the west. This will bring a break from
precipitation Tuesday and Wednesday before chances for precipitation
increase again to round out the week. The coolest temperatures in
the extended will come in on Monday as highs struggle to reach 70
degrees. This will likely only last for a day before temperatures
warm back into the 70s and then push back around 80 by the end of
the week.

Marine...

winds will be out of the west-northwest tonight as a cold front
exits the central great lakes this afternoon. West to northwest flow
will is expected to persist through the weekend as broad low
pressure remains in place over the northern great lakes.

Speeds are expected to remain modest, but gusts may just top 20
knots over western lake erie both Saturday and Sunday afternoons.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Hlo
discussion... Bt sp
marine... ... .Sf
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 1 mi71 min WSW 6 G 7 67°F 1007.1 hPa (+1.3)
AGCM4 21 mi41 min 64°F 1006.4 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 42 mi41 min 65°F 1005.6 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 43 mi41 min W 6 G 8 64°F 1005.7 hPa55°F
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 49 mi31 min W 16 G 19 69°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI8 mi78 minWSW 510.00 miFair65°F55°F70%1006.5 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI9 mi73 minWSW 510.00 miA Few Clouds64°F56°F75%1006.3 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI16 mi77 minWSW 610.00 miFair64°F54°F71%1007.8 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW9SW9SW12
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E10CalmSW4W7W11
G17
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NW6NW6W6W6W5W5W5
1 day agoCalmS3S6SE6S7S9
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W12CalmS8SW7SW11SW10
G18
SW12
2 days agoW3NW3W3CalmNW5Calm3CalmN8SE74E7CalmSE7SE10S7SE6S5S5S4S3CalmCalmSE3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.