Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Delton, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:02AMSunset 5:46PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 4:37 AM EST (09:37 UTC) Moonrise 9:01PMMoonset 9:56AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ845 South Haven To Holland Mi- 341 Am Est Wed Jan 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..Southeast winds around 10 knots veering southwest 10 to 20 knots, then becoming northwest to 30 knots late in the day. Rain until midday, then rain showers with possible freezing drizzle and snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet building to 5 to 7 feet late in the day.
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Cloudy. A chance of snow showers and light freezing drizzle in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 6 to 8 feet.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 25 knots veering northwest to 30 knots late in the day. A chance of snow showers until midday, then snow showers likely in the afternoon. Freezing spray through the day. Waves 4 to 6 feet building to 6 to 8 feet late in the day.
Thursday night..Northwest winds to 30 knots. Cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Heavy freezing spray. Waves 7 to 10 feet.
LMZ845 Expires:201901231615;;789909 FZUS53 KGRR 230841 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 341 AM EST Wed Jan 23 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ845-231615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Delton CDP, MI
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location: 42.49, -85.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 230830
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
330 am est Wed jan 23 2019
latest update...

synopsis discussion marine

Synopsis
Issued at 330 am est Wed jan 23 2019
-current winter weather event persisting today, mainly north of a
holland to alma line
-high impact lake effect event Thursday night and Friday due to
combination of bitter cold, wind, frequent whiteouts
-additional significant lake effect bitter cold over the weekend
-several inches of synoptic snow possible next Monday-Tuesday

Discussion (today through next Tuesday)
issued at 330 am est Wed jan 23 2019
frequent travel impacts are likely over the next week due to the
combination of persistent snow and cold.

Narrow band of heavy snow, fgen related, which had been
persisting the last few hours around grr and hastings to north of
lansing will diminish very soon as the back edge to the heavier
precip is now moving across lk mi arrives. The morning commute
could be very tricky in this area as inch per hour snows have
occurred since midnight leaving roads snow covered slick.

The rain snow line, which stretches from south haven to lansing
at 3 am, looks to lift up to about a holland to alma line this
morning. Threat of travel impacts seems to have already diminished
along the i-94 corridor where temps have risen to the mid 30s
with rain, and the milder temps and switch to mostly rain should
lift another tier or two of counties north with time through the
morning, temporarily alleviating travel impacts.

More heavy precip rates arrive this morning as the main shortwave
now near kansas city lifts northeast. The main area of
accumulating snow after 12z is expected to shift farther north as
the sfc low tracks toward grr, with a 2 to 5 inch snowfall
expected north of a muskegon to mt pleasant line. The dry slot
sweeps in this afternoon, causing the snow the diminish to
drizzle freezing drizzle.

Colder air rushes in tonight behind the departing low, and areas
that have rain and briefly milder temps today will see things
freeze up again. The lake effect potential tonight does not look
particularly impressive due to low inversion heights around 4k ft.

Arrival of a potent arctic front and shortwave late Thursday will
usher in bitter cold and windy conditions with wind chills
falling well below zero by the time of the Friday morning commute.

The strong northwest winds behind the front will carry lake
effect snows well inland and the fine snowflake size will lead to
greatly reduced visibilities and icy road conditions. Total snow
accumulations will probably be held down since the dgz lowers to
near ground level in the cold air mass, but travel impacts will
undoubtedly be significant since road chemicals generally become
ineffective with single digit temps.

Lake effect looks to continue through most of the weekend,
becoming enhanced by another shortwave front on Saturday night
into Sunday. This starts as a southwest flow event then goes
northwest behind the next front. We are still looking at a
moderate potential for significant synoptic snows related to a
clipper system with tacks just south of mi on Monday-Tuesday.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 113 am est Wed jan 23 2019
we are looking at quite a few impacts for this fcst period. Ifr
and lower conditions are expected through the majority, if not the
entire period. We may see sites sneak up to MVFR late in the
period.

Snow is affecting the i-96 terminals, with a heavier band
impacting kgrr at fcst issuance time bringing down vsbys to 1 2sm.

This will linger over kgrr for a couple of hours before shifting
out of the area. The i-94 terminals have pretty much changed over
to rain as warmer air comes in. We expect kgrr and klan to
eventually change over to rain, while kmkg will likely remain
mostly snow.

Later today, we will see rain and snow change over to drizzle and
freezing drizzle (based on sfc temps) as deeper moisture moves
out. This afternoon, all sites will gradually drop below freezing
as colder air rushes in as winds become westerly and gusty. Snow
showers of the lake effect variety will eventually develop toward
the end of the period with CIGS eventually coming up slightly.

Marine
Issued at 330 am est Wed jan 23 2019
we will be leaving the small craft advisory as is with this forecast
package. Winds and waves will ramp up later today in the wake of the
system moving through today, and the cold air coming in behind it.

There will be a break in the winds and waves later tonight and early
Thursday. Another headline will be needed for late Thursday through
Friday as the arctic air surges in. Heavy freezing spray will also
become a factor due to the cold and wind wave action.

Hydrology
Issued at 312 pm est Tue jan 22 2019
significant amounts of ice have been formed on our rivers over the
last few days. No significant ice jams have formed, although
elevated water levels have been noted on parts of the flat river and
the looking glass river. No flooding has been reported. New ice
growth will be on hold until temperatures cool down again later this
week.

Attention now turns to the storm currently moving into the area. The
rain snow line is going to be very tricky with this storm. In
general, the kalamazoo basin and upper parts of the grand river
basin will see snow change to rain, with upwards of one-half inch of
rain possible by tomorrow morning. The muskegon basin and lower
parts of the grand river basin will see more (or all) snow
throughout this storm.

The modest snowpack already on the ground along and south of i96
will take a hit from the rain as well as above-freezing
temperatures, with runoff expected to reach the rivers in the next
few days. The good news in terms of the river water levels is that
the warm temperatures will be short-lived, and the existing snowpack
should help to absorb some of the rain so not all of the new rain is
expected to runoff into the streams. Sycamore creek, the maple
river, and the looking glass river are expected to rise to near
bankfull, but no significant overbank flooding is expected.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... Winter weather advisory until 9 am est this morning for
miz056>059-064>067-071>074.

Winter weather advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
miz037>040-043>046-050>052.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 1 am est Thursday for lmz844>849.

Synopsis... Meade
discussion... Meade
aviation... Njj
hydrology... Ad
marine... Meade


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 46 mi43 min SSE 6 G 7 33°F 32°F1009.7 hPa33°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 63 mi37 min ESE 1 G 5.1 34°F 1010.2 hPa (-3.0)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
W K Kellogg Airport, MI16 mi44 minS 88.00 miLight Rain35°F33°F93%1012.1 hPa
Kalamazoo/Battle Creek International Airport, MI18 mi44 minS 66.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist35°F33°F93%1011.9 hPa

Wind History from BTL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE12SE9
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S12S9S10S9S7S9S12S8S10S9S9S9S8S8
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4E5NE43SE7SE6S6S5SE3SE6SE7S9S7SE7SE7SE8SE9SE10
G17
2 days agoN11N9N10N7N7N9NE9N12N11N12N12N10
G16
N6N4N3N6N10N12N6N7N6N5N4NE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.