Thursday, February22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Delton, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 6:25PM Thursday February 22, 2018 5:58 PM EST (22:58 UTC) Moonrise 11:17AMMoonset 12:33AM Illumination 52% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ845 South Haven To Holland Mi- 1107 Pm Est Mon Jan 15 2018
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots backing southeast toward daybreak. Snow. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..East winds around 5 knots backing west, then veering north late in the day. Cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Waves calm.
Tuesday night..North winds 5 to 15 knots backing west 10 to 20 knots toward daybreak. Snow showers likely in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight. Waves calm.
Wednesday..West winds to 30 knots backing southwest gales to 35 knots late in the day. Partly Sunny. A slight chance of snow showers until midday. Waves calm. Waves are for ice free areas. This is the last nearshore marine forecast (nshgrr) issuance for the season. The nshgrr will again be issued around april 1st 2018, or as conditions warrant.
LMZ845 Expires:201801161015;;514453 FZUS53 KGRR 160407 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1107 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ845-161015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Delton CDP, MI
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location: 42.49, -85.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 222029
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
328 pm est Thu feb 22 2018
latest update...

synopsis short term long term hydro

Synopsis
Issued at 328 pm est Thu feb 22 2018
a brief wintry mix will occur toward midnight. Most areas will see
a very light glaze of ice, but it should be a bit more significant
toward central lower. All areas will see the precipitation change
over to rain just prior to daybreak. Then rain will end toward mid
day Friday. After a quiet period Friday afternoon and night, rain
will move back in on Saturday and continue Saturday night. Some
snow may mix in at the onset of the precipitation. A risk of
thunderstorms will be possible Saturday night as warmer air surges
north. More rain is expected into the middle of next week.

Daily temperatures are expected to remain in the 40s, with 50s
possible on Tuesday. Nighttime lows will mainly be in the 30s.

Short term (this evening through Saturday night)
issued at 328 pm est Thu feb 22 2018
will issue a winter weather advisory for the far NW CWA where a
wintry mix could lead to slippery roads by the morning commute. Rain
returns Saturday and Saturday night with thunderstorms also possible.

Low pressure will pass to the northwest of lower michigan toward
daybreak Friday. The models have trended warmer with more of a se
flow. This should result in only a brief period of mixed pcpn.

However the duration will be longer the farther north one goes. Also
the steadier pcpn is expected to occur closer to the track of the
low, meaning the NW CWA will be most under the gun for steadier
pcpn, in combination of a longer duration where surface temps will
be below freezing. Expect around 0.05 of an inch of glaze where the
advisory will be (mason and lake counties), and lesser amounts to
the east and south.

The surface temps will be rising toward daybreak Friday from south
to north, ending the risk of freezing pcpn. This occurs by 09z over
the far south, to 15z Fri in the north. Rain will occur through the
rest of the morning, but as the low exits we will see a dry
afternoon. Friday night also will be dry.

A more intense surface low will track NW of the area again Saturday
night. Moisture flux arrives from south to north through Saturday,
and solidly in place by Saturday night. The pcpn may start as a
period of rain snow mix Saturday, but warmer air will surge in
changing it over to all rain. A 984 mb low will occlude into
Saturday night and a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible as
this front crosses the CWA Saturday night. It will also become
quite windy late Saturday night as we see the lead edge of the cold
advection arrive. This system moves through rather quickly so
rainfall amounts will be somewhat limited with a quarter to a half
inch of rain expected. This may delay some of the rivers subsiding,
with the risk of thunder possibly adding a wild card to possible
localized heavier rains.

Long term (Sunday through Thursday)
issued at 328 pm est Thu feb 22 2018
500 mb flow pattern changes Sunday as strong wave moves from the
central plains into ontario. Zonal flow weak ridging will dominate
the extended period... As a closed low develops over california. That
system lifts out into the central plains and weakens Thursday...

which will give us a chance of precipitation Wednesday and Thursday
as the system approaches. Models in good agreement through late
Tuesday... Then they diverge in how they handle the upper low over
the southwestern us.

Cold air will return to the region Sunday on gusty northwest winds
as the initial system departs... With moderating temperatures
expected Monday and Tuesday. A dry cold front will pass through
late Tuesday... Bringing slightly cooler temperatures. H8
temperatures fall below zero Sun morning as system passes overhead.

Cmc doesn't bring sub -10 c air into the region... Rising above zero
tue Wed before falling back below zero on Thursday.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 1215 pm est Thu feb 22 2018
visible satellite imagery showing breaks in the cloud cover over
portions of west michigan and continued clearing across far
southwest michigan into adjacent areas of illinois and indiana.

Vfr ceilings elsewhere. Radar indicating a few echos south of a
kazo to klan line... With a few more shown from milwaukee northeast
into northern lower michigan. Areal coverage and intensity of
radar returns has been decreasing over time. MVFR ceilings from
central illinois south and west will advect into the area later
this evening... But have above average confidence inVFR conditions
continuing through at least 00z Friday.

Persistent southwesterly flow at mid levels will bring increasing
chances for precipitation at west michigan TAF sites during the
latter portions of the upcoming forecast period. Models are
consistent in creating two areas of precipitation... One that will
remain south and east across ohio and southern indiana... And the
second which across wisconsin and upper michigan. Still enough of
a threat exists to include mention of precipitation for all west
michigan tafs between 09z and 18z Friday.

There is some concern about precipitation type... As thermal
profile suggests the possibility of freezing rain for a brief
period around sunrise. Will keep the forecast all liquid for
now... But situation needs to be monitored and earlier onset of
precipitation could cause enough of a threat of freezing
precipitation to include in future forecasts.

Hydrology
Issued at 328 pm est Thu feb 22 2018
water that ponded into low-lying areas and smaller rivers, creeks,
and streams is continuing to slowly make its way into the larger
rivers. Moderate to major flooding is expected to occur along the
kalamazoo, thornapple and grand rivers tomorrow into the weekend.

Water levels along the grand river are expected to approach or
possibly exceed levels reached during the flooding in april of 2013.

Water levels along the kalamazoo river, particularly near comstock,
are expected to near levels that occurred in september 2008.

Please see the latest flood statement or river hydrographs for
details. Hydrographs are available by going to weather.Gov grr and
clicking on the "rivers and lakes" tab above the map.

A wintry mix of precipitation is expected late tonight through
Friday morning. This should not impact river levels or cause ongoing
flooding to worsen. Precipitation from a low pressure system over
the weekend will spread mostly rain into the area Saturday night and
Sunday. Amounts could exceed 0.25 inches, and could approach 0.50
inches near the michigan indiana border. This may slow the receding
of waters and prolong river crests for rivers that crest over the
weekend. This precipitation is not yet accounted for in river
forecasts, as it is not expected to fall within 48 hours.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... Winter weather advisory from 3 am to 10 am est Friday for
miz037- 038.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Jk
short term... Jk
long term... Mws
aviation... Mws
hydrology... Hlo


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 46 mi28 min ENE 12 G 14 41°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 46 mi40 min ENE 12 G 18 39°F 1031.4 hPa
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 63 mi58 min E 1.9 G 8 42°F 1031.5 hPa (-2.4)
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 70 mi28 min ESE 9.9 G 13 38°F 1033.6 hPa22°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
W K Kellogg Airport, MI16 mi65 minE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy41°F27°F57%1032.8 hPa
Kalamazoo/Battle Creek International Airport, MI18 mi65 minENE 810.00 miOvercast42°F28°F58%1033 hPa

Wind History from BTL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5N4N3N3N3NE4N5NE6NE8NE6NE6NE8E8NE7E6NE10NE8E11E10E12
G17
NE7E11E8E10
1 day agoSW14
G22
W5S8S10SW8W10NW8NW8NW10NW8NW7NW15NW9NW10
G16
NW9NW8N9N12N7N7NW7N6N6N5
2 days agoSW15SW15SW17
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S13S14S11S14S16SW14S9S9S12S13S12S16
G23
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SW8SW10SW10
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G22

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.