Friday, November16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Marblehead, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 4:21PM Friday November 16, 2018 8:27 AM EST (13:27 UTC) Moonrise 2:24PMMoonset 12:20AM Illumination 60% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 716 Am Est Fri Nov 16 2018
.gale warning in effect until 4 pm est this afternoon...
Today..NE winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt this afternoon. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain, mainly this morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Am Est Fri Nov 16 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A coastal storm moves moves across southeast new england by midday and then moves off to the maritimes. This will bring strong winds to the waters this morning and midday. High pressure returns for the weekend. A cold front passes across the waters on Sunday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marblehead, MA
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location: 42.5, -70.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 161054
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
554 am est Fri nov 16 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure south of long island will move across southeast
new england this morning, then off to the maritimes this
evening. Snow or mixed precipitation will linger over parts of
western massachusetts this morning before tapering off. Patchy
light rain will linger over the remainder of the region. Strong
winds will precede the low pressure, especially along the rhode
island and massachusetts coastlines. Dry and chilly weather move
in this afternoon and remain through the weekend as high
pressure builds in. Weak low pressure may bring patchy light
rain and or snow late Sunday into Monday. Another shot of colder
air moves in by the middle of next week, though it should be
mainly dry.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Low pressure center was south of central long island at 6 am,
and trending northeast toward southern ri and southeast mass.

Strong pressure falls are noted to the northeast of the low, and
this is contributing to the strong pressure gradient across the
region. Gusty winds are noted inland, but the strongest gusts
of 40 to 50 mph are found along the ri and mass coastlines. This
will continue until the coastal low moves past around midday.

Gusts should then diminish in the afternoon. Continue wind
headlines along the eastern mass coast and islands until late
morning. We will also add the south coasts of ma and ri, except
for the existing high wind warning on the CAPE and islands.

Most precipitation that could add to storm totals for snow and
sleet has moved out of the region. We will drop all winter storm
headlines. But due to potential snow sleet showers during the
day we will start a winter weather advisory for the east slopes
of the berkshires.

The supporting shortwave to the coastal low will sweep past
southern new england about the same time as the surface system.

A second shortwave moving through the northeast was over
michigan early today, and will enter new england toward evening.

This should bring a period of clouds and showers late this
afternoon evening, with temperatures supporting snow showers.

This could add a light snow accumulation on top of what has
fallen. Best chance will be in northwest mass through evening.

Expect a shallow mixed layer, to either 950 mb or 925 mb.

Tempertures in this layer support MAX temps in the upper 40s to
around 50 on CAPE cod, and in the upper 30s and around 40 in the
central hills and ct valley.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Saturday night
A broad upper trough lingers over hudson bay through Saturday
night. Several shortwaves move through this flow and over
southern new england. 500-mb heights remain near to below
normal through the period. Normal values are 557 to 563
decameters, while forecast values are in the 540s today and
550-555 Saturday.

One shortwave moves across southern new england early tonight.

This may be enough to generate scattered snow showers,
especially across northern massachusetts. These snow showers
should move out of state before midnight.

Cold advection will maintain some level of mixing tonight and
Saturday. Low level winds will be 30-35 kts tonight and 20-25
kts Saturday. Expect most or all of this wind to mix to the
surface in gusts tonight and Saturday.

Moisture cross sections show diminishing moisture aloft on
Saturday. This suggests a dry day, allowing for sunshine.

Temperatures upstream are in the upper 20s and lower 30s... This
should suffice for tonight's min temps. Mixing on Saturday
should reach 925 mb, where temps will support MAX surface temps
in the 40s. Min temps farther upstream point to Saturday night
mins in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
Highlights...

* no changes to Thursday afternoon long term forecast for this
period.

* below average temperatures persist
* weak low pressure brings periods of rain and snow late Sun into
mon
* dry and cold mid week
overview...

the extended forecast features a few high pressure systems sandwiched
around a relatively weak low pressure disturbance or two in the
Sunday night Monday time frame which will bring the return of
both rain and snow chances. Model consensus is good that the
flow pattern becomes much less amplified and more zonal behind
Friday's system, persisting through late weekend. By then a mid
level shortwave digs south, crossing the region Sunday Monday
which will generate a weak surface low in the vicinity of sne
with another round of light snow rain. Beyond this, models
diverge a bit, with the GFS keeping things unsettled into
Tuesday before the high returns, while the euro returns a dry
high pressure more quickly. Either way, by mid to late week
heights begin to rise ever so slightly and a cold and dry
pattern returns.

Details...

Sunday and Monday...

Sunday high pressure sits over the northeast with light winds and
highs in the upper 30s-40s under a cold airmass; should be a mostly
dry day before snow rain chances increase from the west by the
evening overnight hours. The upper trough over canada digs south
helping to generate a surface low in the vicinity of sne which
brings weak fronts through in quick succession Sunday
night Monday. Still expecting mainly snow outside the coastal
plain, with rain along the coasts. QPF amounts are lackluster; a
few hundredths to a few tenths of liquid equivalent.

Tuesday through Thursday...

after the system exits zonal flow returns at the base of a large 500
mb trough over the eastern us Tuesday early Wednesday. Some
disagreement on slight precip chances Tuesday, but overall looks
dry; maybe some showers over the high terrain. By mid week a
surface high returns bringing dry weather. Given the overall
weak longwave trough pattern, cold temperatures will persist
with highs in the 30s and low 40s.

Aviation 12z Friday through Tuesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday night ...

today... Mixed MVFR ifr CIGS and vsbys this morning in light
rain and sleet will taper off most places around midday.

Conditions improve toVFR most places by late afternoon. Strong
east-northeast wind gusts this morning with highest gusts along
the coastline... 45 to 50 kt. Winds turn from the north and then
northwest midday and afternoon with gusts 25 to 30 kts along the
coast.

Tonight...VFR. Gusty west winds 20 to 25 kt.

Saturday...VFR. Gusty west winds near 20 kt, diminishing
Saturday night.

Kbos terminal... Moderate to high confidence in taf. Occasional
light rain tapers off this morning. Strong gusty east winds this
morning will turn out of the north and then northwest during the
afternoon. Winds diminish this afternoon and tonight.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf. Sleet diminishes this
morning, possibly as a few rain or snow showers. Northeast winds
turn out of the northwest midday, then diminish during the
afternoon.

Outlook Sunday through Tuesday ...

Sunday: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Slight chance sn.

Sunday night: mainly ifr, with local MVFR possible. Chance sn,
slight chance ra.

Monday: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Breezy. Chance sn, slight
chance ra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday night ... High confidence.

Today... Storm force wind gusts from the east and northeast this
morning. The storm center moves across rhode island and
southeast mass toward midday, at which time the winds will shift
from the northwest and diminish somewhat. Expect lingering gales
for a part of the afternoon and then small craft winds later in
the day. Seas on the exposed waters will remain at 8 feet or
higher.

Tonight... West winds at 20 kt gusting to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12
feet slowly subsiding during the night.

Saturday... West winds gusting 20 to 25 kt. Seas slowly
diminishing, but the outer waters will remain with 5 foot seas.

Saturday night... Winds less than 25 kt. Seas diminishing below
5 feet on the outer waters.

Outlook Sunday through Tuesday ...

Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Sunday night: winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain.

Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Monday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Slight chance of rain.

Hydrology
Renewed river flooding is possible across ri and eastern ma with
0.50 to 1.0 inches of rainfall possible tonight into Friday
after a few inches of snow first. Will have to watch this
closely.

Tides coastal flooding
Astronomical tides are very low (below 9 ft) in boston. Thus
with this upcoming storm worse case scenario would be isolated
minor flooding possible.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... High wind warning until 9 am est this morning for maz022>024.

Wind advisory until 10 am est this morning for maz007-014>016-
019>021.

Winter weather advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
maz002-008-009.

Ri... High wind warning until 9 am est this morning for riz008.

Wind advisory until 10 am est this morning for riz006-007.

Marine... Storm warning until 9 am est this morning for anz231>235-237-
250-254>256.

Gale warning until 4 pm est this afternoon for anz230-251.

Gale warning until 9 am est this morning for anz236.

Synopsis... Wtb bw
near term... Wtb
short term... Wtb
long term... Bw
aviation... Wtb bw
marine... Wtb bw
hydrology...

tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 15 mi40 min 44°F 998.1 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 15 mi38 min ENE 27 G 33 46°F 52°F17 ft997.2 hPa (-7.5)46°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 15 mi84 min E 29 G 35 44°F 50°F17 ft999.7 hPa
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 34 mi88 min ENE 37 G 40 41°F 1001.9 hPa (-6.7)41°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 39 mi103 min ENE 12 38°F 37°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 43 mi38 min E 31 G 41 47°F 18 ft996.1 hPa (-8.3)43°F

Wind History for Providence, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA7 mi35 minENE 12 G 181.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist41°F37°F89%999 hPa
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA13 mi34 minENE 261.25 miLight Rain Fog/Mist and Windy45°F42°F90%997.8 hPa
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA21 mi34 minNE 15 G 221.75 miLight Rain42°F37°F82%1001.1 hPa
Laurence G Hanscom Field Airport, MA23 mi32 minN 111.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist39°F37°F96%1001.4 hPa
East Milton, MA24 mi32 minENE 17 G 32 mi39°F39°F100%997.6 hPa

Wind History from BVY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3NE5NE4N5N5NE5E5E7E10E9
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1 day agoW16
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2 days agoSE11SE13
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Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead, Massachusetts
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Marblehead
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Fri -- 05:31 AM EST     8.07 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:35 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:25 AM EST     1.89 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:24 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:20 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:43 PM EST     8.39 feet High Tide
Fri -- 11:57 PM EST     1.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.62.63.95.477.987.264.5322.134.15.578.18.47.76.44.93.11.7

Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Marblehead Channel
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:24 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:53 AM EST     0.34 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:30 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:35 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:57 AM EST     -0.33 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 12:47 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:24 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:14 PM EST     0.32 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:20 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:42 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:19 PM EST     -0.36 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.10.20.30.30.30.20.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.20.10.30.30.30.30.1-0-0.2-0.2-0.3-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.