Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Marblehead, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:12AMSunset 8:07PM Thursday May 23, 2019 10:42 AM EDT (14:42 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 9:15AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 1016 Am Edt Thu May 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 pm edt this evening...
This afternoon..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Isolated showers.
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of tstms. Widespread showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely in the morning.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1016 Am Edt Thu May 23 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres moves offshore this afternoon. A cold front sweeps across the waters late tonight and early Fri followed by gusty nw winds turning N Fri. High pres builds over new eng Fri night, moving south of the waters Sat. Another cold front will move across the waters late Sun or Sun night. High pres builds briefly over the waters on Mon. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marblehead, MA
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location: 42.5, -70.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 231407
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
1007 am edt Thu may 23 2019

Synopsis
Combination warm front and cold front will bring scattered showers
and chance thunderstorms later today into tonight. Windy and mild
conditions will follow on Friday with a brief shower possible near
the coast. Much of Saturday looks dry with pleasant temperatures,
but a fast moving disturbance will probably bring a period of showers
late Saturday into early Sunday. The rest of Sunday into memorial
day looks to be warm and mainly dry, but an approaching warm front
may bring some showers by Tuesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
10 am update ...

scattered to widespread showers forecast with embedded heavier down-
pours and the chance of thunderstorms. Developing towards afternoon,
concluding during the evening hours as a cold front sweeps through.

Strong storms possible, but not expecting severe.

Now:
morning thunderstorm convection blossoming along the convergent nose
of an isentropically ascending W SW low-level jet out across NE pa
into the nyc tri-state region. Per SPC mesoanalysis, coincident
location with the h925-85 warm front where the elevated environment
above h85 is moist adiabatic, conditionally unstable. Decent shear
and collocated plume of +1 inch precipitable waters, updrafts are
manifesting resulting as thunderstorm and heavy downpour development.

A close eye on the low-level warm front progressing e. Latest rap
indications have the front pushing W into W new england towards
early afternoon, a coincident warm nose and fast W flow pushing it
further e. It may be beginning around 2p that we begin to see some
moderate to strong shower to thunderstorm activity into the ct river
valley. Perhaps prior. Notably via satellite, a lot more sunshine
than originally thought. Pushing 2m temperatures into the 70s could
enhance early onset as well as chances for downpours and strong storms.

For now and prior to, expect light to moderate rains associated with
isentropic upslope along the w-periphery of a lingering mid-upper
level high pressure ridge settled se.

Sw winds will remain breezy throughout today with gusts up to 30
mph, especially across SE new england.

Later:
convective probabilities and parameters continue to indicate
that the greater strong to severe threat is sw, if anywhere in
new england over SW ct. An analysis ... Mid-upper level ridge
and subsidence linger SE as a low to mid level warm tongue (h85
to +14) advects W across S new england. Undercutting S onshore
marine flow. A supposed lid on the environment, limitations on
surface-based instability. Yet moist adiabatic, conditionally
unstable environment developing aloft above h85, indicating the
potential for elevated convection in an environment of +1 inch
precipitable waters into this afternoon and on into evening
before the cold front sweeps through. Then there's the present
fact of abundant interior NE CONUS sunshine spreading into N w
portions of ma. Perhaps greater chances in such regions for
afternoon into evening strong storms and locally heavy downpours
as the aforementioned lid is somewhat eroded.

Aside, if convection is limited mid-late afternoon by the lid,
then certainly the sweeping cold front with attendant potent
mid-level shortwave yielding strong ascent and deep-layer lift
by evening will provide the impetus for widespread showers,
embedded downpours as well as thunderstorm elements, though
perhaps not as strong. Another thing worthy of note is the
strong, dry W flow that is pushing the cold front across the
region that may limit updraft potential across S new england,
hence why convective allowing forecast models are focusing most
convection across pa nj to the S of the pronounced W jet with
another region of activity over N new england coincident with
better synoptics, closer to the low, and beneath the left front
quadrant of the attendant h3 jet.

Overall, as the previous forecaster succinctly put it, expect a
period of scattered to numerous showers this evening with chance
thunderstorms as the environment aloft supports mucapes around
500 j kg. Can't rule out an isolated strong storm, more than
likely will see heavy downpours. No severe weather expected as
the greater threat appears to be SW of new england. Expect drying
conditions overnight behind the front.

Short term Friday
Friday...

mid level trough amplifies east of new eng which will result in
windy conditions. Deep and well mixed boundary layer will
support gusts to 35 mph, initially from the NW but then turning
north in the afternoon. Mainly dry weather is expected with
mixed clouds and sun, but a few brief showers may move south
across eastern ma and ri during the afternoon as shortwave
energy rotates around the mid level low to the east. Highs will
range from the upper 60s to lower 70s, but turning cooler along
east coastal ma during the afternoon as winds turn northerly.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
Highlights...

* high pressure builds across the region Friday night, shifting
east Saturday afternoon with seasonable temperatures
* a period of showers pushing east late Saturday through late
Sunday morning, with a few thunderstorms possibly Saturday
night
* dry conditions and warm temperatures move in Sunday
afternoon
* high pressure brings dry conditions and mild temperatures
memorial day
* a front may approach late Monday night and Tuesday with
scattered showers that could linger into mid week
details...

Friday night and Saturday...

as low pressure exits across the gulf of maine, will see dry
conditions. Northerly winds will remain gusty Friday evening,
especially across E coastal areas, but should diminish high
pressure ridge shifts E overnight. Temps will fall back to the
mid 40s to lower 50s, which is near seasonal normals for late
may.

High pressure center will cross new england on Saturday, with
light winds that may allow sea breezes to develop for a time
around midday. With fast mid level steering flow remaining in
place across the northern tier, the high will push offshore
during Saturday afternoon as clouds quickly follow. Winds shift
to s-sw as well, so should see temps top off in the lower-mid
70s away from the immediate coast.

May see a few showers push into N central and western areas
after 21z as the next system approaches.

Saturday night and Sunday...

as the mid level ridge shifts E Saturday evening, h5 steering
flow becomes nearly zonal which will allow another short wave
to move along in the flow. Surface low pres pushes into central
and northern quebec overnight Sat night, with the trailing
frontal system pushing E out of ny state.

The front should cross the region Sunday morning, allowing dry
air to work in from midday through the afternoon. However,
noting a swath of h85 temps up to 14c to 15c moving across on
the westerly winds Sunday afternoon. So, temps may actually
recover to the lower 80s for most areas except along the
immediate S coast, CAPE cod and the islands where it will be
cooler.

Sunday night and memorial day...

some model solution spread works in, mainly the 00z GFS which
is trying to bring yet another short wave in the flow. However,
several of the model suite members keep a dry w-nw flow in place
during this timeframe. Kept a dry forecast going with temps on
Monday up to 5 degrees above seasonal normals. Looks like a
pleasantly mild day.

Monday night through Wednesday...

lower confidence with widening model solutions during this
timeframe. May see another frontal system approach late Monday
night through Tuesday which may mean more scattered showers.

With the nearly zonal steering flow across the northeast, may
see spotty showers linger into mid week.

Aviation 14z Thursday through Monday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday ... High confidence.

Today into evening ...

low-endVFR CIGS with breezy SW winds 10 to 15 kts, gusts around
20 to 25 kts. Isolated to sct shra with chance tsra possible as
early as mid-late afternoon. Sct to widespread shra with chance
tsra expected evening. +ra anticipated. Brief MVFR- ifr likely
with ra +ra tsra.

Overnight ...

clearing out 3-9z nw-se. Ifr vsbys and CIGS are forecast to
impact terminals E of lwm-orh-ijd before improving as winds shift
w becoming blustery, 10 to 15 kts with gusts around 20-25 kts.

Friday... High confidence.

Vfr CIGS with low risk of an isold brief shower in eastern ma.

Nw wind gusts to 30 kt developing.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Friday night through Monday ...

Friday:VFR. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance shra.

Friday night:VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Saturday:VFR.

Saturday night: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Breezy.

Shra likely, slight chance tsra.

Sunday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance shra.

Sunday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible.

Memorial day:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday ... High confidence.

Today...

sw winds sustained around 10 to 15 kts, gusts around 20 to 25
kts will push seas 3 to 5 feet on the outer waters. Small craft
advisories issued accordingly.

Tonight...

sw winds continue prior to a sweeping cold front during the
early morning hours. Will see sustained 10 to 15 kts with gusts
around 20 to 25 kts throughout as the cold front sweeps through,
sw winds shifting w, waves building 5 to 7 feet on the outer
waters. Lower visibility with any heavy showers or thunderstorms
that are forecast ahead of the sweeping cold front. Heavy rain
elements occurring around midnight.

Friday...

gusty NW winds 25-30 kt developing with possible marginal gale
gusts to 35 kt during the afternoon as winds turn northerly.

Best chance of gales will be over eastern waters. A brief shower
is possible.

Outlook Friday night through Monday ...

Friday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Friday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Saturday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Rain showers
likely.

Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Slight chance of rain showers.

Sunday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Memorial day: winds less than 25 kt.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for
anz230>234-236-251.

Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Friday for anz235-237.

Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 8 pm edt Friday
for anz250-254>256.

Synopsis... Kjc sipprell evt
near term... Kjc sipprell evt
short term... Kjc
long term... Evt
aviation... Kjc sipprell evt
marine... Kjc sipprell evt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 15 mi53 min S 12 G 14 56°F 53°F1 ft1021.8 hPa (-1.2)48°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 15 mi99 min S 9.7 G 12 54°F 52°F1 ft1021.8 hPa
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 15 mi73 min 60°F 1022.1 hPa
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 34 mi43 min S 17 G 19 51°F 1021.2 hPa (-1.2)47°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 39 mi118 min SSW 5.1 59°F 1023 hPa46°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 42 mi35 min 48°F2 ft
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 43 mi53 min S 12 G 14 55°F 2 ft1023.5 hPa (-0.4)43°F

Wind History for Providence, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA7 mi50 minS 810.00 miFair63°F46°F56%1020.9 hPa
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA13 mi49 minS 1310.00 miMostly Cloudy66°F48°F54%1021.7 hPa
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA21 mi49 minS 710.00 miFair63°F46°F56%1021.9 hPa
Laurence G Hanscom Field Airport, MA23 mi47 minSSW 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy66°F48°F52%1022.5 hPa
East Milton, MA24 mi47 minS 14 G 23 mi58°F46°F67%1022.7 hPa

Wind History from BVY (wind in knots)
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SE11SE11SE11SE8SE8SE7S6SE5S7S7S5SW6SW4SW7S6S6S7S7SW11S8S8
1 day agoW15
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Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead, Massachusetts
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Marblehead
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Thu -- 02:54 AM EDT     9.86 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:15 AM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:36 PM EDT     8.64 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:27 PM EDT     1.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.77.89.49.99.27.65.53.21.1-00.31.63.35.37.28.48.67.76.24.42.51.31.42.6

Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Marblehead Channel
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:12 AM EDT     0.42 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:53 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:16 AM EDT     -0.42 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 09:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:28 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:47 PM EDT     0.41 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:29 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:46 PM EDT     -0.35 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:46 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.40.40.2-0-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.20.20.30.40.40.30.1-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.20.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.