Friday, May26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Marblehead, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:09AMSunset 8:11PM Friday May 26, 2017 3:27 AM EDT (07:27 UTC) Moonrise 6:12AMMoonset 9:08PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 116 Am Edt Fri May 26 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon...
Rest of tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Areas of fog. Widespread showers with isolated tstms. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Areas of fog. Scattered showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming S after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun..S winds around 5 kt...becoming se in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Showers likely.
Mon night..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height...which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Am Edt Fri May 26 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A potent low pressure system will move over the area tonight and into tomorrow. Heavy rainfall will limit visibility at times. Anticipate quiet weather for the weekend with another frontal system moving through late Sunday into Monday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period...please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marblehead, MA
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location: 42.5, -70.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 260609
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
209 am edt Fri may 26 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure and its attendant warm front will bring a steady
rain and drizzle to the region through tonight along with cool
northeast winds. The rain will be heavy at times tonight into
Friday morning as this low tracks across southern new england.

Big improvement to start of the holiday weekend as weak high
pressure delivers dry weather with mild days and cool nights
both Saturday and Sunday. However by Sunday night and into
Monday another coastal low may bring the risk of showers,
although a washout is not expected.

Near term until 6 am this morning
* highlights...

- widespread light rain drizzle
- moderate-heavy rain towards midnight into early morn Friday
- increasing onshore easterly winds, cooler air off waters
- this all prior to a warm front and low pressure sweeping over
s new england Friday morning
* latest discussion...

200 am update...

overall trend in the forecast remains on track this early this
morning. Bulk of the heavy precipitation and thunder will
continue to move northward into nh. Surface low that had
developed is currently over nyc and will move across southern
new england into the morning hours. This will keep the chance
for showers and drizzle for the entire area overnight. Wind
gusts are beginning to increase as pressure gradient continues
to tighten with approaching system. Gusts near 15-20 mph are
expected.

Dense fog advisory will be let go at the top of the hour as
heavy rainfall has mixed out the conditions. Coastal flood
advisory with also be allowed to expire as we are now past the
high tide.

Previous discussion...

moderate to heavy rain expected with the possibility of a rumble of
thunder. Low occlusion sweeping NE across S new england overnight.

Crux of deep-layer synoptic forcing out ahead of the low through a
fairly moist profile well up to h3 beneath the left front quadrant
of the upper level cyclonic jet streak. Strong omega forcing not out
of the question that will easily and efficiently wring out moisture,
rather the nature and magnitude of said moisture wrapping into the
occlusion, its associated precipitable waters theta-e. Confident
as to moisture pooling along the low to mid level warm front lifting
gradually N across the region. Conditionally unstable moist profile
aloft, and given strong omega, can not rule out thunder. The system
itself is quick-moving, short duration, the bulk of the rain falling
around midnight into the 6a timeframe. But there's still spread,
even between the GEFS and SREF members, with the SREF exhibiting
members with higher amounts up around 2.0 to 2.5 inches.

Quite an anomalous system with winter-like characteristics, taking
nothing for granted, and as such am leaning more towards the high-
res guidance as consensus of ensemble probabilities along with cips
analogs signal a low-prob of greater than 3-inches storm total rain-
fall over E SE ma and ri. Can not rule out an inch of rainfall in
the roughly 6-hour period noted earlier. Potential urban and poor
drainage issues, mainly inland as low tide proceeds after midnight
into morning along the shores. Not thinking any impact to the rivers
rather nuisance issues along area roadways, low-lying spots and
culverts notorious for having issues. Focusing on the i-95 corridor
and immediate roadways surrounding.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Saturday
Friday...

scattered shower activity lingering within the wrapping comma-head
occlusion. Influx of cooler air rearward as the pressure gradient
tightens with the low lifting E with a weak ridge of high pressure
building from the w, will see a steepening boundary-layer profile
allowing for both moisture and momentum to mix out. So thinking bulk
of wet-weather activity will be early on, with the later-half mostly
dry as winds increase out of the nw. Clouds breaking, more sunshine,
given the time of year and the fact that the low lacks a more pole-
ward connection of colder air, with the cooler air an artifact of
being dragged down from aloft, should turn out near-seasonable with
highs around the mid to upper 60s, warmer SW ct while cooler NE ma.

Friday night...

drying out. Occlusion continues to lift E out to sea. Still a N flow
on the backside with cooler air, the boundary layer remains well-
mixed beneath rising heights from the W and an inversion around h8.

Some scattered to isolated shower activity initially, diminishing
through the overnight hours. Low clouds linger given boundary-layer
mixing and moisture pooling beneath the inversion. With the warm
warm blanket in place, keeping it mild with lows down into the upper
40s to low 50s.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
* highlights...

* mainly dry weather W mild days and cool nights Saturday and Sunday
* risk of rain returns Sun night into Monday
* slightly above normal temperatures Tue & wed, with a risk for
scattered showers
* details...

Saturday and Sunday...

near to slightly below normal temperatures. Weak high pressure
centered just off to the east. Limited moisture within the
vertical column should keep most of southern new england dry.

Will have to watch out for diurnal showers west of the ct river
each afternoon, with Sunday being the more likely day. Weak
pressure gradient will support cooling afternoon seabreezes
for the coastline.

Sunday night and Monday...

parent low pressure expected to remain north of the great lakes,
while a triple point low traverses south of new england.

Expecting an increasing risk for showers. While there should be
periods of showers, not expecting a washout. Some elevated
instability, but otherwise not a great setup for strong
thunderstorms. Included at least a low risk for isolated
thunderstorms though. Near to slightly below normal
temperatures continue.

Tuesday into Thursday...

lingering fronts finally should move away from our region. High
pressure moving into the central appalachians should provide
some sunshine and at least a light south to southwest flow. This
should mean slightly above normal daytime temperatures, with
near normal low temperatures through this period. A cold pool
aloft centered just south of james bay should mean a cyclonic
flow for our region. Will have to be wary of diurnal showers
each day.

Aviation 06z Friday through Tuesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday ... Moderate confidence.

Tonight...

vfr breaks in the CIGS will drop back to ifr MVFR by the
morning. Heavy rain to the north and west with areas of fog and
drizzle for the rest of the region. NE winds continue with
mainly 20-25 kt gusts.

Friday...

ifr MVFR CIGS with sct-bkn -shra, on and off through the day.

Conditions may improve toVFR across western terminals in the
late afternoon. Northwest winds for all terminals, becoming
gusty into the later half of the day.

Friday night...

shra dissipating while improvingVFR. NW winds blustery
initially, relaxing. CIGS becoming bkn to sct.

Kbos taf... High confidence in TAF trend, but moderate confidence
in timing.

Kbdl taf... High confidence in TAF trend, but moderate confidence
in timing.

Outlook Saturday night through Tuesday ... Moderate confidence.

Saturday and Sunday... MainlyVFR. Light winds Saturday, with
seabreezes at the coasts. Light s-se winds Sunday.

Sunday night through Monday... CIGS vsbys trending to MVFR ifr in
showers. Winds from the southeast, trending from the south Monday.

Tuesday... MainlyVFR, with scattered MVFR in leftover showers.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday ... High confidence.

Tonight... Rain and fog, possible thunder. This as low pressure
lifts N E across S new england ahead of which along a warm
frontal boundary E NE winds will be sustained around 15 kts
initially, becoming somewhat light with low passage and
beginning to turn N nw. Seas 6 to 8 feet on the outer waters.

Friday into Friday night...

low pressure exiting behind which showers will linger as winds
will be initially blustery out of the NW with sustained flow
around 15 kts, gradually diminishing with time as a weak ridge
of high pressure builds in from the w.

Outlook Saturday night through Tuesday ...

relatively light winds and seas through this period, once seas
subside across the outer waters Saturday morning.

Tides coastal flooding
* tonight...

combination of a very high astronomical tide and onshore flow
will result in widespread minor coastal flooding tonight, mainly
for the E ma coast.

Persistent easterly flow around 15 mph will result in a surge of
0.8 to 1.0 feet along the E ma coast. In addition to very high
astronomical tides will result in minor flooding. Greatest concern
continues to be from salisbury to CAPE ann. This is because this
is where the strongest easterly flow is forecast along with a
combination of E swell and wind wave direction. Greatest risk of
both minor coastal flooding and beach erosion.

A coastal flood advisory continues for the ma E coast including
cape cod and nantucket for tonight's high tide. Waves will not
be a major factor but looks like enough low level wind gradient
to produce 6 to 8 foot waves in the near shore waters in ipswich
bay, about CAPE ann, and massachusetts bay could be an issue.

Some erosion is likely along the salisbury and plum island
shorelines where wave action will be somewhat more significant.

Elsewhere along the ma and ri coasts, the combination of the high
astronomical tide and a tidal departure near a half foot may be
enough to cause pockets of minor coastal flooding as has become more
common during such king tide cycles. But our confidence continues
to be low and will not be issuing a statement for the remaining
coastline.

* Friday night into very early Saturday morning...

a surge of 0.2 to 0.4 feet is forecast and combined with the peak
of astronomical tides (boston at 12.41 feet), should see at a
minimum coastal flooding of low-lying locations notorious for
becoming inundated during such tides (i.E., morrissey boulevard
in boston). Additional coastal flood statements may be necessary.

Will continue to monitor and make updates after this evenings tide
cycle.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... Dense fog advisory until 3 am edt early this morning for
maz022>024.

Coastal flood advisory until 3 am edt early this morning for
maz007-015-016-019-022-024.

Ri... Dense fog advisory until 3 am edt early this morning for
riz008.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Saturday for anz235-237-
250-254>256.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for anz251.

Synopsis... Belk sipprell
near term... Dunten
short term... Sipprell
long term... Belk
aviation... Belk dunten
marine... Belk sipprell
tides coastal flooding... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 15 mi40 min 50°F 54°F1000.3 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 15 mi38 min N 14 G 16 51°F 53°F6 ft999.3 hPa (-1.4)
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 15 mi84 min N 18 G 21 50°F 52°F6 ft998.5 hPa
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 34 mi28 min NNE 27 G 31 48°F 1000.1 hPa (-3.5)48°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 39 mi103 min NE 7 49°F 1002 hPa48°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 42 mi22 min 47°F8 ft

Wind History for Providence, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA7 mi35 minNNE 106.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist50°F48°F96%999.9 hPa
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA13 mi34 minN 64.00 miLight Drizzle Fog/Mist50°F48°F96%1001 hPa
Lawrence, Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA21 mi34 minN 84.00 miRain Fog/Mist50°F48°F93%1001.4 hPa
Bedford, Hanscom Field, MA23 mi92 minWNW 610.00 miLight Rain49°F46°F90%1002.8 hPa
East Milton, MA24 mi32 minN 16 G 21 mi48°F46°F96%999.8 hPa

Wind History from BVY (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmN5NE4S11SE6SE11SE7SE7SE7E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN3NW6NW4NW6NW8NW5NW75NW9NW6W8NW8SE7SE6SE5SE5SE5S4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead, Massachusetts
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Marblehead
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:04 AM EDT     -2.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:12 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:19 PM EDT     10.46 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:20 PM EDT     -1.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:08 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
11.610.484.91.8-0.9-2.1-1.30.93.76.69.110.410.18.56.13.20.6-1-0.61.44.27.29.9

Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Marblehead Channel
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:37 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:06 AM EDT     -0.51 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:12 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:13 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:52 AM EDT     0.53 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 01:06 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:26 PM EDT     -0.46 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 07:32 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:08 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 10:02 PM EDT     0.55 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.2-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.10.30.50.50.50.30-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.20.20.50.60.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.