Friday, September21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Marblehead, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:29AMSunset 6:43PM Friday September 21, 2018 7:26 AM EDT (11:26 UTC) Moonrise 5:22PMMoonset 2:48AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 716 Am Edt Fri Sep 21 2018
.gale warning in effect from this evening through late tonight...
Today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt this afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sun night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Am Edt Fri Sep 21 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres moves east of the waters today. A cold front will sweep across the waters late tonight and early Sat with pre- frontal gale force s-sw winds tonight. High pres will build east from the great lakes this weekend with a reinforcing high pres building over quebec Mon, which will shift east toward nova scotia on Tue. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marblehead, MA
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location: 42.5, -70.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 210816
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
416 am edt Fri sep 21 2018

Synopsis
High pressure moves slowly to the east today. A cold front
sweeps across the region late tonight with showers and a few
thunderstorms. Large high pressure will then bring dry but cool
conditions this weekend lasting into Monday. Another round of
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected Tuesday
afternoon through Wednesday evening as a series of fronts move
across the region. High pressure will bring dry conditions
Thursday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Showers moving east from eastern lakes are assocd with modest
instability burst. The higher theta-e air and elevated
instability remain to the north where main focus for showers
will be this morning. There is a low risk for a brief shower or
sprinkle spilling into NW ma this morning, otherwise dry
conditions will continue.

High pres moves offshore today as cold front approaches the
eastern lakes toward evening. Considerable low level moisture
persists across the interior and especially western new eng
where lower clouds will likely remain. Less moisture further
east where partial sunshine expected to develop. There is a
good surge of warmer air aloft moving into sne today but this
will be above a shallow mixed layer so temps will remain on the
cool side. 925 mb temps only around 13-14c so expect highs
upper 60s to lower 70s. Increasing southerly winds develop
this afternoon with gusts to 25 mph by mid late afternoon.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Saturday
Tonight...

cold front moves across sne late tonight, mainly 06-12z and will
be accompanied by a weakening line of convection from new york
state, mainly after midnight. Surface instability is non
existent, but low level theta-e ridge and ki values into the mid
30s ahead of the front support a line of showers and possibly a
few t-storms. This activity will weaken as it approaches the
coast so best chance for thunder will be in western new eng.

Gusty S SW winds will continue tonight, especially near the
coast where gusts 25-35 mph likely. Dewpoints will be climbing
into the 60s with temps holding steady in the upper 60s ahead
of the front, but cooling interior northern and western ma late
tonight behind the front.

Saturday...

the cold front moves south of the coast in the morning followed
by high pres and very dry air advecting into the region. Some
clouds may linger near the south coast early, otherwise lots of
sunshine expected. Gusty post-frontal NW winds expected in the
morning near the coast, then diminishing in the afternoon. Highs
upper 60s to lower 70s with dewpoints falling through the 50s
and into the 40s in the afternoon.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
Highlights...

* large high pressure will bring dry, cool conditions late this
weekend into early next week
* a slow moving warm front brings scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms late Tuesday through Wednesday
* above normal temperatures briefly arrive Wednesday
* cooler temperatures return late next week as cold front passes
overview...

00z model suite continues trend of fast moving weather systems
into early next week thanks to a nearly zonal mid level
steering flow across the northern tier states. H5 begins to
amplify a trough as it moves out of the northern rockies mon
night Tue timeframe as the long wave ridge tends to suppress
south across the mid atlc and SE u.S. Some ridging does build
into quebec in response to the digging trough, which will allow
for a brief period of milder temperatures but will also see
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms around the middle
of next week with an approaching frontal system. Noting a cold
front working SE by late next week, which should bring another
shot of cooler air, but there are timing issues in play amongst
the model suite, so have lower confidence during the later
timeframe.

With the approaching frontal system around the Tuesday
afternoon through Wednesday timeframe, noting marginal
instability with tq values in the upper teens and k indices in
the lower 30s. Have mentioned isolated thunderstorms through
this time, but will convection looks to be spotty at this
point.

Expect temperatures through most of this period running close
to or below normal. However, with the ridging that builds in
ahead of the tue-wed system, could see temps on Wed run 5 to 10
degrees above seasonal normals.

Aviation 08z Friday through Tuesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday ...

through today... Moderate confidence.

MainlyVFR in the east with areas of MVFR CIGS persisting across
western new eng. Increasing south winds this afternoon with
gusts to 20-25 kt developing after 20z.

Tonight... Moderate confidence.

Cigs lowering to MVFR with a band of sct showers and isold
t-storms moving west to east across sne 04-10z. Greatest
coverage across western new eng with activity weakening as it
moves east. S SW wind gusts to 20-30 kt, strongest near the
coast.

Saturday... High confidence.

Some lingering MVFR CIGS early CAPE islands, otherwiseVFR.

Gusty NW winds in the morning diminishing in the afternoon.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Outlook Saturday night through Tuesday ...

Saturday night through Sunday:VFR.

Sunday night through Monday:VFR. Breezy.

Monday night:VFR. Breezy. Slight chance shra.

Tuesday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.

Chance shra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday ... High confidence.

Through tonight...

increasing southerly winds developing this afternoon and
peaking tonight as 45-50 kt low level jet develops. Given warm
sst, expect sufficient mixing to bring down some of this wind
with gale force gusts to 35-40 kt over eastern ma waters.

Converted gale watches to warnings for eastern ma waters with
sca for south coastal waters and bos harbor. A few showers and
perhaps an isold t-storm is possible late tonight, after
midnight.

Saturday...

w NW wind gusts to 25-30 kt in the morning diminishing rapidly
and becoming N NE in the afternoon as high pres builds over the
waters. Seas subsiding.

Outlook Saturday night through Tuesday ...

Saturday night through Sunday: winds less than 25 kt.

Sunday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Monday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Monday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Tuesday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 11 am edt
Saturday for anz232>235-237.

Small craft advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 11 am edt
Saturday for anz230.

Gale warning from 8 pm this evening to 5 am edt Saturday for
anz231-251.

Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 8 am edt
Saturday for anz236.

Gale warning from 8 pm this evening to 8 am edt Saturday for
anz250-254.

Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 2 pm edt
Saturday for anz255-256.

Synopsis... Kjc evt
near term... Kjc
short term... Kjc
long term... Evt
aviation... Kjc evt
marine... Kjc evt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 15 mi37 min ESE 12 G 14 63°F 65°F5 ft1025.3 hPa (-0.0)51°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 15 mi39 min 61°F 1026.5 hPa
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 15 mi83 min SE 9.7 G 12 63°F 64°F6 ft1024.2 hPa
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 34 mi27 min SE 15 G 16 62°F 1025.4 hPa (+0.0)50°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 39 mi102 min Calm 56°F 56°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 42 mi51 min 64°F4 ft
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 43 mi37 min E 9.7 G 12 62°F 5 ft1026.2 hPa (+0.5)48°F

Wind History for Providence, RI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NE8
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SW10
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NE5
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G8
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G12

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA7 mi94 minN 010.00 miOvercast58°F55°F90%1025.2 hPa
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA13 mi93 minSSE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy62°F52°F70%1025.9 hPa
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA21 mi93 minN 010.00 miOvercast62°F53°F73%1026.4 hPa
Laurence G Hanscom Field Airport, MA23 mi91 minN 010.00 miOvercast58°F55°F90%1026.9 hPa

Wind History from BVY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5N7NE8NE10
G16
NE8NE8E9E106NE6E7CalmCalmE3E4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6
1 day agoNE8NE7
G16
NE10NE11N10NE9
G15
NE9NE10NE8NE8NE5NE4NE3N4NE54N4N4NE5NE6NE7N6NE8NE7
2 days agoSE12S8N5N13
G19
NE6N5N7CalmSW3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5NE11
G20
NE15
G24
N11
G20
NE12NE8

Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead, Massachusetts
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.