Thursday, September20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Marblehead, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 6:44PM Thursday September 20, 2018 5:20 AM EDT (09:20 UTC) Moonrise 4:47PMMoonset 1:52AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 344 Am Edt Thu Sep 20 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt this morning. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sun night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 344 Am Edt Thu Sep 20 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres over the canadian maritimes builds south over the waters tonight, then moves east Fri. A cold front will sweep across the waters early Sat with pre-frontal s-sw winds approaching gale force Fri night. High pres will build east from the great lakes this weekend and be followed by a reinforcing high pres area from ontario on Mon. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marblehead, MA
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location: 42.5, -70.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 200830
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
430 am edt Thu sep 20 2018

Synopsis
High pressure builds into new england through tonight yielding
dry cool weather. Warmer temperatures, gusty winds and more
humid conditions expected Friday ahead of an approaching cold
front. The front may bring a few showers and thunderstorms
Friday night into early Saturday, then large high pressure will
bring dry but cool conditions through the weekend into early
next week. Another warm front may approach late Tuesday into
Wednesday with scattered showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
High pres builds south into new eng as heights rise on northern
periphery of building east coast ridge. However, continued moist
ne flow will likely maintain cloud cover through the morning,
especially across eastern new eng, and some drizzle or a brief
shower is possible over CAPE islands. Developing sunshine in the
west should overspread eastern new eng this afternoon as low
level moisture decreases.

Highs will be mostly in the mid upper 60s, except lower 70s ct
valley where 925 mb temps are milder. NE winds will diminish
over CAPE islands.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday
Tonight...

high pres remains in control as it shifts east of new eng
overnight. Nam GFS indicate increasing low level moisture
returning which will likely lead to stratus and patchy fog
developing. Href shows highest probs of stratus and fog in the
interior and can't rule out some patchy drizzle. Otherwise, dry
weather with lows in the 50s.

Friday...

increasing S SW flow develops ahead of approaching cold front
which moves into the eastern lakes toward evening. Expect a mix
of Sun and clouds and becoming breezy in the afternoon.

Instability is nil on fri. Axis of instability and forcing
remain well to the west so a dry day is anticipated. A line of
convection may be moving into western ny toward evening.

Southerly flow and shallow mixing depth will limit heating with
highs mainly in the lower 70s coastal plain and interior
valleys, but humidity will be increasing as dewpoints climb
into the 60s in the afternoon.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
Highlights...

* a cold front will bring scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms especially across the interior Friday night
* a large high builds across from central canada Saturday
afternoon into Monday with cool but dry conditions
* another frontal system may approach late Monday night or
Tuesday with showers and a few thunderstorms, which may linger
into mid week
overview...

00z model guidance continues to signal a changeable weather
pattern across the northeast u.S. For most if not the entire
long term period. A general, broad steering mid level flow
across the northern tier states will keep weather systems moving
along into early next week. Beyond that, it appears the h5 mass
fields start to amplify as a long wave trough digs across the
western plains states while ridging builds across eastern canada
by around Monday night or Tuesday, though noting some solution
spread amongst the model members.

As high pressure heads east off the eastern seaboard, an
approaching cold front will slide SE Friday night into early
Saturday. Noting decent instability as it shifts into northern
new england, but tends to break down as the front approaches the
region. Noting k indices in the lower 30s and tq values in the
upper teens Fri night. Have mentioned isolated thunder in the
fri night early Sat forecast. However, the energy and
instability outruns the approaching front, and actually weakens
as it passes.

Large high moves in behind the front through the remainder of
the weekend into the start of the work week. Rather cool
conditions, especially moving into Monday morning as another
reinforcing high brings overnight lows in the lower-mid 40s
across the higher inland terrain, ranging to the mid-upper 50s
along the S coast.

Another complex system approaches Monday night or Tuesday, but
model timing with the exit of high in question, which is lending
to model solution spread. May see another round of showers and
even a few thunderstorms, but noting only marginal instability
with this next system.

Aviation 09z Thursday through Monday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday ...

through 12z... Mainly MVFR and low endVFR cigs.

Today... Moderate confidence.

A mix of MVFRVFR CIGS becoming allVFR, but MVFR persisting
over CAPE islands where a brief shower possible this morning.

Tonight... Moderate confidence.

Areas of stratus and patchy fog developing with MVFR ifr
conditions, mainly interior.

Friday... Moderate confidence.

Any MVFR ifr stratus in the interior improving toVFR by
midday. S SW gusts to 25 kt developing in the afternoon.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in trends. Lower confidence in
timing.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in trends. Lower confidence in
timing.

Outlook Friday night through Monday ...

Friday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Chance shra, slight chance tsra.

Saturday:VFR. Breezy. Slight chance shra.

Saturday night through Sunday night:VFR.

Monday:VFR. Breezy.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday ... High confidence.

Today... Ne winds gradually diminish, especially this afternoon
but 5-6 ft seas will persist over eastern waters.

Tonight... Light winds as high pres builds over the waters, but
5 ft seas continue over eastern waters.

Friday... Increasing southerly winds with gusts to 25-30 kt
developing by late afternoon, especially eastern ma waters.

Outlook Friday night through Monday ...

Friday night: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated
thunderstorms.

Saturday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Saturday night through Sunday: winds less than 25 kt.

Sunday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Monday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Friday for anz250-254.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for anz251.

Small craft advisory until 10 am edt this morning for anz255-
256.

Synopsis... Kjc evt
near term... Kjc
short term... Kjc
long term... Evt
aviation... Kjc evt
marine... Kjc evt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 15 mi31 min NE 18 G 19 62°F 66°F5 ft1019.5 hPa (+0.7)59°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 15 mi33 min 60°F 1020.7 hPa
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 15 mi77 min NE 18 G 19 62°F 64°F6 ft1018.6 hPa
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 34 mi21 min NE 16 G 18 58°F 1020.9 hPa (+1.2)55°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 39 mi96 min ENE 1.9 58°F 57°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 42 mi45 min 64°F6 ft
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 43 mi31 min NNE 19 G 21 61°F 6 ft1019.1 hPa (+0.3)61°F

Wind History for Providence, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA7 mi28 minN 610.00 miOvercast59°F57°F93%1020.4 hPa
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA13 mi27 minNNE 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy60°F55°F86%1020.8 hPa
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA21 mi27 minNE 910.00 miOvercast61°F55°F81%1021.8 hPa
Laurence G Hanscom Field Airport, MA23 mi25 minNNE 510.00 miOvercast58°F55°F90%1021.9 hPa

Wind History from BVY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE12NE8NE8NE7
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NE9NE10NE8NE8NE5NE4NE3N4NE54N4N4NE5NE6NE7N6
1 day agoE5E6SE12S8N5N13
G19
NE6N5N7CalmSW3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5NE11
G20
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2 days agoS3SW6SW6SW9W8SW8SW9SW9SW11SW9SW12SW10SW11SW7SW6SW7SW8SW8SW8SW8SW6SW5W3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead, Massachusetts
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.