Saturday, March23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brocton, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 7:33PM Saturday March 23, 2019 12:10 AM EDT (04:10 UTC) Moonrise 9:51PMMoonset 8:04AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ061 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 952 Pm Edt Fri Mar 22 2019
Rest of tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves in ice free areas occasionally around 10 feet. The lake is mostly ice covered.
Saturday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. A chance of rain and snow showers in the evening, then snow and rain showers likely overnight.
Monday..North winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day.
Tuesday..North winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast.
Wednesday..South winds 10 knots or less. Waves omitted due to the lake being mostly ice covered.
LEZ061 Expires:201903230930;;774041 FZUS61 KCLE 230152 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 952 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure 30.30 inches over the upper Great Lakes will drift southeast tonight and move across Ohio on Saturday. The high will reach the southeast coastal region Sunday as low pressure 29.80 inches reaches Missouri. Sunday night the low will move east across the lower Ohio Valley and a cold front will drop south across the lake. Monday, high pressure 30.50 inches over southern Canada and the western Great Lakes will build southeast across all of the lakes. The high will continue to affect the lake Tuesday and Wednesday. LEZ061-169-230930-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brocton, NY
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location: 42.5, -79.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 230253
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1053 pm edt Fri mar 22 2019

Synopsis
A strong area of low pressure moving northward along the maine coast
will bring accumulating snows tonight. The greatest amounts will be
found across the higher terrain east of lake ontario. The snow will
quickly taper off from west to east later tonight and early Saturday
east of lake ontario. Dry weather will then prevail for the rest of
the weekend. Temperatures will stay below normal through Saturday,
then quickly warm again on Sunday.

Near term through Saturday
The deep coastal low along the new england coast line responsible
for the wintry conditions will continue to slowly move nne away from
the region towards the gulf of st. Lawrence tonight. Meanwhile, a
strong upper level low tracking across pa this evening will punch
under the base of the coastal low and then phase with it by Saturday
morning. This will directly affect areas east of lake ontario as
most of our region will remain on the fringes of the main synoptic
precipitation shield of this coastal low. Model guidance continues
to show this evening a well developed trowal (trough of warm air
aloft) in the northwest quadrant of the east coast low, which is
enhancing snowfall for points southeast and east of lake ontario
tonight.

Otherwise, a majority of our CWA (wny) will continue to be affected
by the second upper level low over pa and wrap around upslope
precipitation for the first half of tonight. With chilly cyclonic
nnw'erly flow, upslope flow lake enhanced snow will add some
additional snowfall to the region east and southeast of both lakes
tonight. However, with marginal h850 temperatures (-10c and
-12c) filtering across the lakes accumulations will not be overly
impressive and hampered by a drier airmass slowly advecting into the
area over the course of tonight. Outside of the the snowfall,
surface winds will remain elevated as a tightly packed pressure
gradient exists across the lower great lakes between the coastal low
and the incoming ridge of high pressure. Expect gusty northwest
winds in the 30-40 mph range, with the highest gusts along the south
shore of lake ontario.

Storm total accumulations will vary widely across the area,
dependent on both elevation and proximity to the coastal low. The
greatest amounts most definitely be found across the higher terrain
of the tug hill and western foothills of the adirondacks, where
totals may reach 8-12 inches. The surrounding lower elevations of
jefferson, lewis, oswego, n.Cayuga, and wayne counties will see 3-6
inches. Amounts will rapidly drop off farther west, with minimal
amounts generally found at lower elevations, trace up to an inch.

The higher terrain of southern erie and wyoming counties and the
chautauqua ridge will see 1-3 inches, fueled by upslope flow. Lows
tonight will range in the low to mid 20s at lower elevations and
teens for higher terrain.

The deep coastal low will move out into the canadian maritimes and
begin to strip low level moisture away with its departure tonight
and into early Saturday. Following its departure, high pressure and
building subsidence across the lower lakes will allow snow to end
rapidly from west to east across wny then east of lake ontario by
early Saturday morning. This will bring a good deal of sunshine to
the region by Saturday afternoon. It will still be quite cold and
blustery, with highs in the upper 30s at lower elevations and lower
30s for higher terrain. Winds will continue to gust in the 25 to 35
mph range, strongest along the south shore of lake ontario and
across higher terrain.

Short term Saturday night through Monday night
An area of high pressure and wealth of dry air behind the recently
departed storm system will bring clear skies Saturday night that
will remain through early Sunday. Temperatures at 925 hpa of +2 to
+4c combined with the dry airmass will allow for afternoon
temperatures to reach well into the 50s across the so. Tier and
genesee valley finger lakes. A lake influenced cold southwest flow
will lower mixing layer heights and temperatures downwind of the
great lakes, with highs likely in the mid to upper 40s.

Two weather systems will converge upon our region early next
week... This being a cold front dropping southward from canada, and
an area of low pressure coupled with an upper level shortwave
passing by just to our south. These features will begin to increase
cloud cover Sunday afternoon, with chances for mixed precipitation
of rain and snow Sunday night and through the first half of Monday.

Greatest moisture will be associated with the storm system to our
west which will bring low likely pops to our area by early Monday
morning. Overall precipitation will be light, generally a tenth of
an inch or less and any accumulating snowfall will just coat the
ground.

Following this system passage, high pressure and a large area of
subsidence will build towards our region later Monday and Monday
night. We'll still remain under the influences of the upper level
trough Monday which may allow for some diurnally driven cumulus to
form across western and northern areas. Skies will clear Monday
night with temperatures dropping back into the teens, and possibly
single digits across interior locations.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
The weather cannot get much more uneventful than what we will
experience during this period... But then again... For this time of
year we should be thankful for the dull and boring. It could be a
lot worse. That being said... There is high confidence that we will
have precipitation free weather through this three day period with
notable day to day warming. While temperatures will average nearly
10 degrees below normal on Tuesday... We will warm to roughly 10
degrees above normal for Thursday.

The reason for the respite in active weather will be progressive
ridge that move from the rockies on Tuesday to the east coast on
Thursday. In fact... Many of the medium range ensembles of both the
gfs (ie gefs) and ECMWF suggest that this pattern will further
evolve into a rex block along the east coast. This would establish a
deepening southerly flow over the lower great lakes (just outside of
this seven day forecast) that could support temperatures in the 60s
and even the lower 70s by Saturday. While those temperatures can be
debated... It is highly likely that we will at least experience above
normal mercury readings for both Friday and Saturday.

Interestingly... This scenario is not supported by the 6 to 10 day
temperature outlook from the climate prediction center. Stay tuned.

Aviation 03z Saturday through Wednesday
Deep low pressure system will continue to move nne along the coast
of maine producing widespread precipitation for locations east of
lake ontario. Lifr conditions can be expected east of lake ontario
at kart though 09z, after that condition will gradually improve into
Saturday. Further west, ifr conditions will continue as upslope flow
and lake enhanced snows continue east and southeast of the lakes
through about 05z-06z then improve rapidly from west to east late
tonight across wny.

Snows will come to an end east of lake ontario early Saturday
morning with high pressure builds into the great lakes, with cigs
returning toVFR at all terminals on Saturday.

Outlook... Sunday...VFR.

Sunday night and Monday...VFR MVFR with a chance of rain and
snow showers.

Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR.

Marine
A strong area of low pressure will continue to move nne along the
maine coast through tonight before exiting into the canadian
maritimes Saturday. Increasing northwest flow in the wake of this
system will produce high end small craft advisory conditions, with
winds up to 30 knots on lake ontario tonight and Saturday. Winds
will diminish Saturday night and Sunday on lake erie, but moderate
westerly winds may still produce lower end small craft advisory
conditions on lake ontario.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Winter storm warning until noon edt Saturday for nyz006>008.

Winter weather advisory until 8 am edt Saturday for nyz004-005.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Saturday for lez040-041.

Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Saturday for
loz030.

Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Sunday for loz043>045.

Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt Saturday for loz042.

Synopsis... Hitchcock
near term... Hitchcock
short term... Thomas
long term... Apffel
aviation... Ar
marine... Ar hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 7 mi70 min WNW 11 G 13 29°F 1014.9 hPa (+3.6)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 27 mi40 min 26°F 1013.9 hPa
EREP1 39 mi70 min NW 18 G 21
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 41 mi40 min 26°F 34°F1013.5 hPa18°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 47 mi40 min 25°F 1013.3 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.