Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brocton, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:38AMSunset 4:44PM Thursday December 13, 2018 12:46 AM EST (05:46 UTC) Moonrise 12:01PMMoonset 10:43PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ061 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on-the-lake Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 919 Pm Est Wed Dec 12 2018
Rest of tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of drizzle and snow late this evening, then snow likely with a chance of drizzle after midnight. A chance of drizzle and snow late. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. A chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LEZ061 Expires:201812130915;;707473 FZUS61 KCLE 130219 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 919 PM EST Wed Dec 12 2018 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure 29.80 inches will move to extreme southern Ontario tonight before dissipating early Thursday morning. High pressure 30.20 inches will build onto the lake from the east Thursday. A weak trough averaging 30.00 inches will cross the lake from the west Friday and Friday night. Low pressure 29.80 inches will move from Tennessee to West Virginia Saturday as high pressure 30.20 inches extends across the central Great Lakes. A cold front will move east across the lake Sunday night. A ridge averaging 30.20 inches will build east to the western Great Lakes Monday and affect Lake Erie. LEZ061-164>169-130915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brocton, NY
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location: 42.5, -79.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 130220
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
920 pm est Wed dec 12 2018

Synopsis
A passing disturbance will bring light snow to areas south of lake
ontario tonight and early Thursday. Milder air will reach our region
Friday and through the weekend. Low pressure over the southeastern
states will move up along the east coast for the weekend and will
bring some chances for rain.

Near term through Thursday
A potent mid level closed low and associated weak surface reflection
will approach the region late tonight and cross early Thursday.

Increasing large scale ascent ahead of the closed low and a wing of
warm advection will support the development of light snow across
western ny by late this evening. This initial area of light snow
will spread east into the genesee valley and western finger lakes
overnight before weakening by the time it reaches central ny. A
second area of light snow just ahead of the mid level closed low
center will likely cross the western southern tier very late tonight
and Thursday morning. The north country will see the least in the
way of snow potential, although there may still be some spotty light
snow there Thursday morning.

Overall moisture quality with this system will be lacking and will
only be able to generate a tenth of an inch or less of liquid
equivalent. Increasing southeast flow ahead of the system will
attempt to usher in some warmer air, but it looks like all of
western new york will remain cold enough for all snow. The incoming
warmer air may lower snow ratios enough to keep accumulations in the
dusting to an inch range for most areas from the south shore of lake
ontario southward.

The closed mid upper level low will move east of the area by
Thursday afternoon as a amplified shortwave ridge quickly builds in
and brings an end to precipitation. Warm air advection will develop
under increasing southerly flow. Temperatures should be able to
climb into the mid to upper 30s for Thursday.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday night
The mid-level circulation will move off the new england coast
Thursday night while a ridge moves occurs the eastern great lakes.

Drier air will move into the region from west to east overnight. A
light southerly flow will persist with low temperatures falling into
the low 30's to the upper 20's at higher elevations.

As we move into Friday, the ridge will move into new england and a
broad mid-level trough will into the great lakes. A large area of
low pressure will slowly track across the gulf coast states while
strong moisture advection occurs across the southeast u.S. And mid-
atlantic region. Meanwhile, a cold front associated with low
pressure near hudson bay will move across the forecast area Friday
afternoon. Model consensus keeps atlantic moisture to our south with
showers skirting the northern and southern tier of the forecast
area. Any rain showers will be light and short-lived. Temperatures
will rise into the mid 40's by afternoon.

There remains forecast uncertainty Friday night and into the
weekend as models struggle to come into consensus with the northward
extent of the area of low pressure to our south. The 12z NAM is
currently the outlier where it brings a swath of rain into wny late
Friday night. Most of the other 12z model guidance keeps most of the
area dry, with only the western southern tier getting light rain
Saturday. One caveat is if we do see rain moving northward Friday
night and into Saturday, there is a slight chance of freezing rain
at higher elevations. It is a low chance because if moisture does
get as far north as wny and east of lake ontario, cloud cover and
rain would likely keep temperatures mild but the possibility is
there.

Low pressure will eventually move off the mid-atlantic coast by
Sunday. Northerly flow will set-up Saturday while high pressure
moves across southern quebec. Any rain will move east during the
day. Temperatures will remain mild Saturday with temperatures in the
low 40's. The parent upper level low will keep cloud cover across
most of the region Saturday into Saturday night.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
Sunday looks to be dry with high pressure dropping across the area.

A cold front will push through the region on Monday and Monday night
as an upper trough digs southeast across the great lakes. This
should support scattered snow showers and perhaps some minimal lake
enhanced snows through Tuesday.

High pressure will then build across the lower great lakes in the
wake of the front, promoting a return to dry weather as we progress
into the middle of next week.

Aviation 03z Thursday through Monday
The remaining areas of MVFR CIGS are dissipating this evening,
leaving mainlyVFR. Mid level clouds will continue to thicken and
lower ahead of a weak clipper system. Light snow will develop across
western ny late this evening, then spread east across the remainder
of the area south of lake ontario overnight. This light snow will
produce a few periods of ifr vsby overnight into early Thursday.

Cigs will deteriorate to MVFR late tonight and Thursday, with some
ifr possible across higher terrain.

Outlook...

Friday and Saturday... MainlyVFR with a chance of rain showers.

Sunday and Monday...VFR with a chance of snow showers.

Marine
Between a surface high over northern new england and surface low
over the midwest, an easterly flow will develop tonight on the lakes
with wind speeds exceeding 20 knots on the western end of lake
ontario. Associated small craft advisories are outlined below for
the western half of lake ontario.

Winds will veer to southeasterly tomorrow and weaken with lowering
wave heights pushed towards the canadian waters.

The southeast to south winds will remain on the lakes Thursday
through Friday night, but likely remaining just below small
craft thresholds. Another storm system will near the region for
the weekend, though north winds associated with this system may
remain light enough to continue favorable boating conditions.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 am est Thursday for loz042-043.

Synopsis... Tma
near term... Hitchcock tma
short term... Hsk
long term... Tma
aviation... Hitchcock
marine... Thomas tma


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 7 mi107 min S 8 G 13 36°F 1017 hPa (+0.0)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 27 mi53 min 33°F 1017.1 hPa
EREP1 39 mi47 min S 2.9 G 8.9
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 41 mi47 min E 5.1 G 7 34°F 37°F1017.8 hPa (-0.3)19°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 47 mi47 min 33°F 1017.6 hPa (-0.4)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY12 mi54 minS 79.00 miOvercast35°F27°F72%1017.1 hPa

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7W6SW5SW3W4S4S4S7S7S6S5S7SE8S8SE8SE10E8E9E7E8CalmCalmSE6S7
1 day agoS13S11S9S12S10S10S8S12SW11SW15
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2 days agoN3CalmCalmSW4S3SW6S5S6S5SW5SW5SW4SW3SW3S3SE3S4SW4SW8S7S9S12S10S10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.