Wednesday, December12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Farmington Hills, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:52AMSunset 5:02PM Wednesday December 12, 2018 7:39 AM EST (12:39 UTC) Moonrise 11:46AMMoonset 10:00PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ422 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0041.000000t0000z-181017t1615z/ 1145 Am Edt Wed Oct 17 2018
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Harbor beach to port sanilac mi... Lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac 5nm off shore to us/canadian border... Lake huron from port sanilac to port huron 5nm off shore to us/canadian border... Port sanilac to port huron mi... St. Clair river... The showers have moved out of the warned area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters. However, waterspouts will continue to be possible the remainder of the day. Lat...lon 4357 8213 4300 8242 4297 8241 4295 8243 4300 8247 4322 8257 4362 8263 4364 8213 time...mot...loc 1432z 311deg 26kt 4287 8193
LCZ422 Expires:201810171554;;903658 FZUS73 KDTX 171545 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1145 AM EDT WED OCT 17 2018 LCZ422-LHZ442-443-463-464-171554-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Farmington Hills, MI
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location: 42.51, -83.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 120854
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
354 am est Wed dec 12 2018

Discussion
Strong upper wave moving through wi il early this morning will bring
a round of light snowfall for southeast michigan today as it moves
over lake michigan and through the state. The system will wrap up
and strengthen a little as it approaches and draws northward a moist
axis. There will be increasing isentropic ascent in tandem with good
upper level divergence resulting in increasing precipitation chances
for the entire cwa.

Overall moisture quality with this system will be lacking and will
only be able to generate around a tenth of QPF or less. Increasing
southeast flow ahead of the system will attempt to usher in some
warmer air, but it will be pinched off by the leading edge of the
incoming cold pool across lower michigan leaving at or below 0c
temperatures at 850 mb for areas to the north. Some concerns with
this forecasts are there will a good amount of dry air over
southeast michigan that will be attempting to saturate as
precipitation moves in during the early afternoon along with some
warmer air in the lower levels along and south of the i-96 corridor.

In addition there will also be also an ice nucleation issues across
the northern half of the area as the stronger fgen swings through
the saginaw valley. Wet bulb zero heights suggest there will be some
light snow that could mix in with some drizzle across the northern
half of the CWA with light rain to the south towards at the onset of
this precipitation. As profiles cool towards the evening, we should
begin to see a transition to light snow with the potential for
drizzle conditions to continue through the tail end of the event.

Have lowered snowfall amounts slightly given these conditions.

Snowfall of a half inch to near an inch will remain most favorable
across the saginaw valley. A half inch or less expected across the
southern half of the area given the warmer lower level and surface
conditions throughout the day. Not expecting the drizzle conditions
to have any impact with surface temperatures across the north
hovering around the freezing mark during the day. As precipitation
trails off to the east tonight, temperatures will fall into the
upper 20s.

The closed mid upper level low will move east of the area by around
midnight as a amplified shortwave ridge quickly builds in and brings
an end to precipitation by early Thursday morning. A southern stream
low pressure system will strengthen across the south central us on
Thursday, warm air advection will push into michigan under
increasing south southwesterly flow. Temperatures should be able to
climb into the upper 30s for Thursday. There will be potential for
some fog development overnight Thursday if higher dewpoints push
northward before precipitation chances begin to increase again early
Friday morning. Some frozen precipitation or very brief window of
light freezing rain may be possible at the onset of the event north
of i-69 with low temperatures around freezing, but the degree of
warm advection should transition to rain quickly and also mitigate
any impacts.

The combination mid upper level jet forcing from both the northern
stream and southern stream waves will provide continued lift ahead
of a front keeping rain chances in the forecast through Friday
afternoon. Warm advection will help bring temperatures up into the
upper 30s and low 40s for daytime highs. Models are converging
towards the euro in regards to the track of the southern stream low
pressure system and keeping the precipitation to our south. This
will allow for a drier solution for Saturday and Sunday.

Low confidence in the forecast for early next week as a cold front
is forecast to push through. GFS is much more aggressive with this
system and placement of a more amplified trough, which bring a surge
of cold air some scattered snow shower potential. The euro is much
weaker with the front while maintaining a stronger high pressure and
warmer scenario. Will favor the warmer and drier solution with this
forecast package. Quiet conditions look to continue into the middle
of next week as high pressure persists.

Marine
Surface winds have become light overnight as surface high pressure
ridging moves across the central great lakes. Fresh and moderate
southeast flow of 20-25 knots will develop today ahead of an
approaching compact midlevel disturbance that will bring a period of
scattered rain snow showers during the late afternoon and evening.

Small craft advisories are in effect for portions of the nearshore
waters of lake huron. Modest south to southeast flow will continue
Thursday into Friday, with gusty northeast flow potentially
developing over the lake huron basin this weekend.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1207 am est Wed dec 12 2018
aviation...

weak high pressure has filled in over lower michigan trailing the
front that settled into ohio during the evening. The moisture laden
boundary layer within the weak surface high maintains borderline
MVFRVFR stratus trapped under a strong inversion centered around
3500 ft in the 00z dtx sounding. The inversion remains strong during
the night although some breaks in coverage remain possible due to
weak difluent diverging flow within the surface high and as the wind
profile veers ahead of the low pressure system approaching from iowa.

Timing and duration of breaks remain low confidence but fog is less
of a concern as high clouds thicken considerably above the stratus
layer. The exception could be moisture off lake erie and lake st
clair contributing to both renewed stratus coverage and fog
development near dtw up to about ptk around sunrise. Otherwise, the
low and associated front then bring potential for snow Wednesday
afternoon which could be limited by moisture supply to the system but
is most likely to produce a short period of entry level ifr
visibility at mbs and fnt. Lower intensity and or a rain snow mix is
more likely from ptk through the dtw corridor during mid afternoon
into Wednesday evening.

For dtw... Borderline MVFRVFR ceiling continues through the night
with a few low confidence breaks in terms of timing and duration.

Concern has eased for haze and or fog until around sunrise as MVFR
stratus and fog associated with the front and southeast flow from
lake erie begin to increase move back northward. Precipitation by
mid to late afternoon likely begins as a light rain snow mix with
above freezing surface temperatures before changing to snow Wednesday
evening. Accumulation potential is limited to a half inch and mainly
on unpaved surfaces.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for cig below 5000 ft through the TAF period.

* moderate for ptype as snow by Wednesday evening.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory from noon today to 4 am est Thursday for
lhz421-441>443.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Aa
marine... ... .Cb
aviation... ..Cb
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 25 mi40 min SE 9.9 G 12 30°F 1018.6 hPa (-0.7)
AGCM4 44 mi40 min 28°F 39°F1018.3 hPa (-0.0)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 48 mi40 min SE 15 G 16 31°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 57 mi40 min SE 9.9 G 12 29°F 1017.4 hPa (-1.2)23°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI9 mi45 minE 45.00 miFog/Mist26°F21°F86%1018.3 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI12 mi47 minESE 34.00 miFog/Mist23°F21°F92%1017.6 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI18 mi47 minESE 55.00 miFog/Mist24°F21°F88%1018.9 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI19 mi47 minESE 53.00 miOvercast with Haze27°F21°F78%1018.4 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI22 mi47 minESE 56.00 miFair with Haze27°F21°F81%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from VLL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9SW9S7SW8SW6SW4W7NW8W11
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1 day agoW7CalmW5CalmW6W5CalmS4SW3S3S5S5SW6SW7S8
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2 days agoCalmSW5S6W5W5CalmSW5SW6W7NW5W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4NW5NW5NW5NW4W3W5W5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.