Friday, May26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Farmington Hills, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 9:01PM Friday May 26, 2017 3:26 AM EDT (07:26 UTC) Moonrise 6:04AMMoonset 9:01PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ422 330 Pm Edt Sun May 21 2017
.thunderstorms approaching the waters... The areas affected include... NEarshore waters from port sanilac to port huron mi... St. Clair river... Lake st. Clair... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... At 328 pm edt...doppler radar indicated Thunderstorms along a line extending from 13 nm northwest of new baltimore to grosse pointe to Monroe harbor...moving northeast at 30 knots. Strong Thunderstorms will be near... Detroit river light and st. Clair shores around 345 pm edt. Lake erie metropark harbor around 350 pm edt. Metro beach metropark marina...mt clemens harbor of refuge...st clair flats old channel light...elizabeth park marina and gibraltar around 355 pm edt. Grosse ile around 400 pm edt. Lakeport and new baltimore around 410 pm edt. Algonac around 415 pm edt. Lexington around 420 pm edt. Other locations impacted by Thunderstorms include estral beach...stony point...woodland beach...detroit beach and gibraltar. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4196 8332 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8261 4264 8256 4265 8255 4301 8247 4335 8259 4343 8251 4312 8236 4289 8247 4262 8252 4255 8259 4254 8266 4237 8283 4229 8309 4205 8315 4196 8311 4180 8332 4179 8349
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ422 Expires:201705212130;;989569 FZUS73 KDTX 211930 MWSDTX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 330 PM EDT SUN MAY 21 2017 LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ443-212130-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Farmington Hills, MI
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location: 42.51, -83.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 260351
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1151 pm edt Thu may 25 2017

Aviation
Moist low level cyclonic flow will sustain stratus through the
morning. There will be some lingering drizzle. Recent radar trends
suggest ceilings have been on a lower trend late this evening as an
ifr deck slips back into the area from the northeast. Recent model
guidance suggests this lower deck will push east of the terminals
around or shortly before daybreak. Even though low level
anticyclonic flow will develop on Friday, persistent low level
moisture should result in a fairly substantial strato CU field, with
bases slowly rising during the day amidst diurnal heating.

For dtw... The light northwest flow is likely to limit the degree of
ifr CIGS into metro early this morning. While there is the potential
for some breaks in the clouds mid to late morning, diurnal heating
should lead to a rapid development of strato cu.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for CIGS below 5000 ft through Friday afternoon. Low in
ceilings below 5000 ft Friday night.

Prev discussion
Issued at 906 pm edt Thu may 25 2017
update...

a band of steadier light rain now extending across the NRN and ern
thumb region is associated with a ribbon of mid level deformation to
the west of a 500mb trough axis. This trough axis will reside over
srn lake huron through the night, weakening as a closed mid level low
takes hold across the mid atlantic. The mid level deformation will
weaken as it slowly contracts during the night, exiting east of the
thumb region prior to daybreak. The net result will be a gradual
diminishing trend to this steadier rainfall across the thumb during
the overnight.

Farther west, slightly heavier scattered showers managed to develop
from late day heating. These will continue to wane this evening with
the onset of nighttime cooling. Lingering low level moist cyclonic
flow will however lend itself to areas of drizzle, possibly at fairly
good intensity at times, through the night. A minor update will be
made to the forecast to reflect these trends.

Prev discussion...

issued at 348 pm edt Thu may 25 2017
discussion...

satellite imagery confirms the accelerated progression of the upper
level trough during the afternoon. This is occurring as mid level
deformation matures and expands up the spine of lake huron with a
ragged western fringe as depicted in radar composite. This will
allow some for some refinement to the pop forecast for the rest of
the afternoon through mid evening when matched up with hi res model
guidance. The main adjustment will be to sharpen the gradient from
categorical pops along the thumb shoreline down to chance interior.

A shower component will remain to be accounted for there as daytime
heating converts drizzle production to scattered showers within the
inverted surface trough extending over southern lower michigan. Both
the showers over interior sections and the primary area of
deformation will have to be accounted for through mid evening before
the upper trough moves far enough eastward to bring an end to
rainfall in our area. That will leave broken to overcast cloud cover
to persist overnight through Friday morning as boundary layer
moisture remains high within the lingering cyclonic low level flow.

The clouds will help keep morning lows on the mild side despite
northerly surface wind trailing the system, and also keep readings
on the cool side of normal during Friday, although expect to see
highs touch 70 as some breaks develop in the clouds mid to late
afternoon.

Today's model runs continue to trend toward some consensus on the
central rockies system as it moves into the plains and possibly into
the great lakes Friday night into Saturday. There is some better
agreement in terms of mean rh areal coverage while solutions on
intensity have considerable spread due to varying amounts of upscale
convective growth. This alone is cause for a conservative approach
to pops over southern michigan with low end chance pops north to
around 40 percent toward the ohio border. The ECMWF and canadian
solutions appear more trustworthy managing convective growth and
show the wave sliding on a more southward track and giving the ohio
border region the best chance of a glancing shot of rain or
convective remnants. The larger scale upper ridge centered directly
over the great lakes, anchored by upper lows over central canada and
the new england coast, will do a lot to steer the small scale low
pressure system southward should the intensity of the wave prove
weaker than shown by the NAM and gfs.

As the long wave pattern evolves through the end of the week, the
upper low over central canada will extend all the way into the
central plains by Saturday. This will provide a more favorable
environment for cyclogenesis associated with short wave energy that
is projected to move into the great lakes by Sunday. There is more
confidence in the model solutions at this time frame compared to
earlier in the Friday night-Saturday period. A large scale upper
trough guiding short wave energy and associated surface features
through the great lakes will bring a chance of showers and
thunderstorms given afternoon timing in current global model
solutions. Passage of the cold front will bring a modest cooling
trend from highs near 80 to readings closer to 70 to start next week.

Another large cut-off low is then projected to develop over northern
ontario by Tuesday and keep conditions cool and unsettled over the
great lakes through next week.

Marine...

moderate northeast winds will ease into this evening and back to the
north as low pressure progresses into the eastern great lakes.

Thumb. Hence, the small craft advisory from the tip of the thumb
through saginaw bay will be cancelled with this forecast package.

Modest northwest flow then takes hold on Friday. A weak gradient
will keep wind and wave activity on the lower side heading into the
holiday weekend. That said, several low pressure systems will bring
unsettled conditions at times. The first will bring some potential
of rain, generally south of lake huron, late Friday night into early
Saturday. Meanwhile, the second low will bring the potential for a
more widespread area of rain on Sunday with some activity perhaps
lingering into Monday.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Sc
update... ... .Sc
discussion... Bt
marine... ... .Dg
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 25 mi26 min WNW 6 G 8.9 56°F 1005.1 hPa (+1.4)
AGCM4 44 mi38 min 55°F 1003.8 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 48 mi36 min NW 15 G 16 59°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 57 mi38 min WNW 6 G 8.9 60°F 1005.3 hPa54°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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SW8
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI9 mi33 minNW 710.00 miOvercast56°F52°F87%1005.4 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI12 mi33 minNW 810.00 miOvercast54°F52°F93%1004.7 hPa
Detroit, Detroit City Airport, MI18 mi33 minNW 610.00 miOvercast56°F54°F93%1004.6 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI19 mi33 minWNW 610.00 miOvercast57°F54°F90%1005 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI22 mi33 minNW 710.00 miOvercast58°F55°F90%1004.9 hPa

Wind History from VLL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE8NE8NE6NE5NE5NE5NE6NE5NE4N4N7N6NW6NW7NW9
G15
NW6NW9NW6NW6NW7NW6NW6NW7NW8
1 day agoNE8NE6NE5NE7NE6NE8E4E9E8
G15
E8E4E13E7E9E12
G16
NE10
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G19
NE10----------E7
2 days agoSW4S5S4SW4SW4S6S3SW5SW5CalmW4S7S4SE4S4W3N7N8NW5N5N7NE5NE8NE8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.