Sunrise 6:34 AM   Sunset 8:28 PM Moonrise 9:42 PM   Moonset 6:09 AM

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LCZ422 /o.exp.kdtx.ma.w.0003.000000t0000z-240417t2115z/ 505 Pm Edt Wed Apr 17 2024
.the special marine warning will expire at 515 pm edt - .
the affected areas were - . Lake st. Clair open lake (u.s. Portion) - . St. Clair river - .
the Thunderstorms have moved out of the area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
a severe Thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 700 pm edt for southeastern michigan - .the adjacent waters of lake huron - .and the adjacent waters of lake st. Clair.
&&
lat - .lon 4289 8247 4280 8248 4276 8247 4261 8252 4255 8259 4256 8264 4246 8274 4259 8285 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8261 4265 8259 4264 8256 4276 8251 4289 8252 4301 8247 4302 8243 4298 8241 time - .mot - .loc 2105z 242deg 52kt 4323 8228 4292 8200 4269 8178

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 252241 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 641 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions bring another cold night tonight and then a warming trend with highs in the 60s on Friday.

- Showers are likely Friday night with a chance for a few embedded thunderstorms through Saturday morning.

- Breezy southwest winds develop Saturday afternoon. Gusts up to 30 mph will be possible.

- There is a chance for additional thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon and evening. A Marginal Risk for severe weather is in place for northwest portions of the forecast area. An isolated storm will be capable of producing hail to 1 inch in diameter and gusts up to 60 mph with storm motion from southwest to northeast at 45 mph.

AVIATION

Subtle moisture pooling across metro Detroit and enhanced low level convergence off lake breeze boundaries was able to generate some cu this afternoon. These will diminish around/shortly after 00Z as daytime heating wanes. Surface high pressure will remain anchored across the eastern Great Lakes tonight and will maintain a very light east wind, with the abundant dry air supporting clear skies.
An east-southeasterly gradient will increase during the day Friday as the center of the sfc high drifts off the East Coast, with model soundings supportive of wind speeds up around 10 knots. The increased gradient flow will inhibit enhanced lake breeze convergence like today, so the prospects for FEW-SCT diurnal cu is expected to be less.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued by National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI

DISCUSSION...

We have issued a Freeze Warning for interior sections and a Frost Advisory for the counties bordering Lake Huron for tonight. The airmass will be modified a bit from last night and return flow begins late tonight as the surface ridge begins to move east, but model soundings still show an very dry airmass through 12Z Friday with precipitable water down near 0.15 inches. This should allow temperatures to drop quickly like last night. There could be some wind picking up by 12Z...but we still expect temperatures to drop to around 30 in the warning area and lower 30s in the advisory.

- Showers and Thunderstorms Arrive Friday Night

Return flow increases Friday but it will take a while to moisten the column of the very dry atmosphere and showers will probably hold off until Friday night although clouds will be in the increase in the afternoon.

A large area of isentropic ascent and strong warm advection pattern combine with the arrival of deep moisture to bring increasing chances for rain Friday night and elevated instability should be enough for isolated thunder and some heavier downpours late Friday night.

Low confidence at present in convective trends for Later Saturday Afternoon and Evening. A conditionally favorable environment for organized convection will be present given MUCAPE values of over 1000 J/kg as moisture climbs in strong SW flow, and deep layer shear values climbing to 35-45 knots thanks to favorable juxtaposition of the low and mid-level jets. Threat is obviously dependent on whether Convective Initiation (CI) occurs. Frontal forcing is not overly impressive and the upper shortwave remains to the west; hence limited synoptic/sub-synoptic forcing for upward vertical motion. If storms can develop, they have some organization potential per the SPC Marginal outlooks. That said, low-level shear will be mostly be boundary-parallel which tends to favors rapid upscale growth into an outflow dominant convective line. It therefore makes sense that a somewhat greater risk will remain to the northwest where CI is more likely to be. Regardless of convective outcome, it will be a breezy day with gusts well into the 30 mph range.

For Sunday...the warm front is expected to be over Central Lower MI and with it a second round of showers and storms is possible given MUCAPE values north of 1000 J/kg.

Showers then expand across Lower MI Sunday Night into Monday as the cold front drifts south before clearing the area Monday evening. CAPE values on the ECMWF and GFS still look to be above 500 J/kg so thunder continues to be possible.

Dry conditions expected for the Tuesday night timeframe as period of surface ridging drifts over the area. After this, forecast predictability for the finer details drops, but the general theme seems to be mean troughing aloft with a relatively wet and unsettled pattern for the rest of the work week.

For the weekend into early next week, 850mb temperatures climb into the teens weekend, yielding surface temperatures in the 70s with even 80+ not out of the question in spots. into early next week causing temperatures to climb into the 70s with low (around 10 percent)
chances that areas exceed 80 degrees.

MARINE...

High pressure will continue to maintain light flow with an easterly component through Friday morning. The high shifts east Friday into Friday night as strong low pressure moves from the central Plains to the upper Midwest, eventually crossing Lake Superior on Saturday.
The strengthening pressure gradient between these features will result in southeasterly flow ramping up late Friday, peaking late Friday night into Saturday morning, then veering southerly on Saturday while gradually weakening through the day. This will also usher in a mild airmass, which will maintain very stable conditions over the waters. Latest guidance suggests a brief window for gusts approaching gale force roughly 09-15Z Saturday. There is also a chance of thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday night.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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