Thursday, February22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Farmington Hills, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 6:16PM Thursday February 22, 2018 9:13 PM EST (02:13 UTC) Moonrise 11:08AMMoonset 12:24AM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ422 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0056.000000t0000z-171015t1730z/ 111 Pm Edt Sun Oct 15 2017
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Lake st. Clair open lake (u.s. Portion)... St. Clair river... The Thunderstorms have moved out of the area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4260 8254 4255 8259 4256 8264 4238 8282 4235 8293 4237 8300 4239 8295 4244 8291 4254 8291 4259 8285 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8261 4265 8259 4264 8256 4276 8251 4283 8251 4283 8247 4276 8247 time...mot...loc 1709z 271deg 36kt 4276 8242 4240 8263
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ422 Expires:201710151721;;908498 FZUS73 KDTX 151711 MWSDTX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 111 PM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017 LCZ422-460-151721-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Farmington Hills, MI
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location: 42.51, -83.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 222358
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
658 pm est Thu feb 22 2018

Aviation
The last few peeks of satellite imagery suggests that MVFR cloud
that initially lifted into southeastern michigan has been thinning
and scattering out due to an increase in easterly dry air advection.

Rolled back timing on MVFR ifr by a couple of hours, although
suspect that lowering of cig heights will be very rapid once low
level moisture advection kicks in. The big question for tonight is
both timing and overall potential for freezing rain. Looking through
a collection of forecast soundings suggests some potential for
drizzle development as early as 05-06z tonight. Upstream,
observations over central illinois are reporting drizzle. Given
amount of near surface saturation with ifr lifr conditions in central
ohio, decided to introduce tempo fzdz at all sites after 06z. Warm
air advection is forecasted to be very strong around daybreak and the
idea is to carry a warm rain forecast once depth of moisture
increases. Confidence in areal coverage of freezing drizzle tonight
is low. Ifr lifr CIGS to remain in place early Friday before lifting
during the late afternoon.

For dtw... Pushed back timing of MVFR ifr a couple of hours, but
suspect rapid onset of conditions late this evening. Introduced
earlier timing with tempo for -fzdz between 06-10z with warm rain
after 10z. Low confidence in coverage of -fzdz.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for cigs AOB 5kft
* moderate for -fzdz 06-10z. High for rain after 10z.

Prev discussion
Issued at 315 pm est Thu feb 22 2018
discussion...

mid clouds stripped away this afternoon allowing temperatures to
reach into the upper 30s to around 40 degrees across most areas. Dew
pts are predominately in the mid 20s. Mid clouds should be returning
this evening, limiting the diurnal fall expected tonight (upper 20s
to lower 30s), as low level warm advection ramps up as well.

Strong upper wave coming out of the four corners region, tracking
through southern minnesota late tonight, with MAX 6 hr height fall
center tracking through lake superior during Friday. Thus, max
forcing better isentropic ascent displaced to our northwest, but
there looks to be adequate moisture advection isentropic ascent
arriving close to 12z Friday to support developing precipitation. It
does not appear the surface high over eastern canada will put up
much of a fight, and models indicating a real good surge of warm air
in the 925-850 mb layer, rising into the upper single numbers to
near 10 c. Thus, even if surface temperatures are marginally below
freezing, it is not a given the warm drops will freeze on contact.

Either way, freezing threat looks limited brief early Friday
morning, and certainly not enough confidence to issue an advisory.

If anything, could see a little freezing drizzle with shallow
moisture before 11z, but otherwise latest hrrr keeps it mainly dry
through 11z, and then expect dew pts to rise above freezing, with
temperatures climbing well into the 40s during the day.

Mid level dry slot arriving Friday afternoon will shut off the rain,
with low level cold air then bleeding in Friday night with northerly
drainage flow. Depth of cold air and southern placement in question
on Saturday as baroclinic zone aligns in west-east fashion, with
high pressure (1026 mb) sliding through the northern great lakes.

This high will tend to help maintain the low level cold feed during
the day, as precipitation potentially overspreads southern lower
michigan (see 12z canadian euro). A light wintry mix is not out of
the question, but surface temps likely well above freezing and with
the daytime timing, probably looking at mainly just a cold rain.

Strong low pressure progged to be centered over the up of michigan
Sunday morning will pull an occluded frontal boundary across
southeast michigan early Sunday. Behind this front, a much drier air
mass will quickly end precipitation as better mixing allows gusty
winds to overspread the region throughout the day on Sunday. High
pressure will then build into the region early next week as upper
level ridging slowly rebuilds over the eastern us. This will bring a
period of dry, calm conditions to southeast michigan through Tuesday
as temperatures remain above average with highs in the mid 40s to
lower 50s while lows fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s. As the
high moves to the eastern seaboard by midweek, return southwesterly
flow will advect moisture across the region ahead of the next wave
moving into the central us. Shower chances look to increase starting
Wednesday as temperatures remain above average with highs in the mid
40s to near 50.

Marine...

light to moderate flow will dominate through Saturday. Strong east
to southwest wind will develop on Saturday night as a deepening low
lifts toward the straits. Stability may be sufficient to probhit
gusts to gales on Saturday night, but the gradient will ramp up as
wind turns southwesterly on Sunday. A gale watch may eventually be
needed for the waters of lake huron... Particularly the central axis
of the lake including part or all of saginaw bay.

Hydrology...

flood warnings remain in effect for most of the primary river basins
over southeast michigan. Additional rain on Friday is not expected
to contribute to additional flooding or prolong existing flooding as
amounts will remain generally one quarter of an inch or less.

Another round of rain will then impact the area late Saturday into
Saturday night with perhaps one half of an inch of rainfall falling
in some areas. This may impact river and stream levels to some
degree, but should not exacerbate flooding to any great degree.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Cb
discussion... Sf jd
marine... ... .Jvc
hydrology... .Jvc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 25 mi73 min NNE 8.9 G 11 32°F 1034.5 hPa (+0.0)
AGCM4 44 mi43 min 31°F 1033.9 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 48 mi33 min E 16 G 17 33°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 57 mi43 min E 20 G 26 34°F 1032.6 hPa30°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Last
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI9 mi18 minENE 910.00 miPartly Cloudy33°F25°F73%1034.2 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI12 mi20 minNE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy31°F25°F79%1033.6 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI18 mi20 minENE 910.00 miOvercast33°F26°F75%1034.7 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI19 mi20 minE 1010.00 miOvercast37°F28°F70%1033.8 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI22 mi20 minENE 1010.00 miOvercast38°F27°F65%1033.4 hPa

Wind History from VLL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E5NE6NE8NE6NE7NE7NE9NE10NE7NE6NE7NE5NE6NE11NE8NE6NE7NE7NE6NE7NE9NE7NE7
1 day agoW8
G15
W3SW3S3SW4W4CalmNW14
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W9NW8
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N4NW9NW8
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2 days agoSW10SW8SW8S7SW11
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S9S7S5S4S12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.