Tuesday, June18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Farmington Hills, MI

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 9:15PM Tuesday June 18, 2019 3:36 PM EDT (19:36 UTC) Moonrise 9:32PMMoonset 6:01AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ422 458 Am Edt Thu Jun 13 2019
.a strong Thunderstorm approaching the waters... The areas affected include... St. Clair river... Lake st. Clair... Detroit river... At 458 am edt, doppler radar indicated a strong Thunderstorm, capable of producing winds to up 20 knots. This Thunderstorm was located near st. Clair shores, moving northeast at 30 knots. Locations impacted include... NEw baltimore, grosse pointe, st. Clair shores, st. Clair, mt clemens harbor of refuge, algonac, st clair flats old channel light, metro beach metropark marina and belle isle. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds up to 20 knots, locally higher waves, lightning strikes, and heavy downpours. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes. && lat...lon 4276 8247 4261 8252 4255 8259 4254 8266 4237 8283 4232 8305 4235 8306 4238 8295 4244 8291 4254 8291 4259 8285 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8261 4269 8260 4265 8255 4276 8251 4289 8252 4297 8246
LCZ422 Expires:201906131000;;415733 FZUS73 KDTX 130858 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 458 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019 LCZ422-423-460-131000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Farmington Hills, MI
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location: 42.51, -83.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 181712
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
112 pm edt Tue jun 18 2019

Aviation
Morning stratus across much of SE michigan has evolved into cumulus
and stratocumulus with the lowest cloud bases generally above 3500
ft this afternoon. Scattered coverage to brokenVFR CIGS will
persist into this evening with ample moisture present in the low
levels. Mid and high clouds then move in tonight as a weak cold
front sags south into the central great lakes. A diffuse surface
pressure field and weak forcing will keep conditions dry with light
and variable winds. Ceilings lower and rain chances increase
Wednesday as better forcing along the front arrives, though most of
se michigan looks to stay dry through the early afternoon.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* medium for ceiling 5 kft or less early this afternoon, low
tonight, and medium again Wednesday.

Prev discussion
Issued at 317 am edt Tue jun 18 2019
discussion...

moist low level airmass remains in place over southeast michigan
early this morning, as 00z dtx sounding indicated a saturated 850 mb
level, with a temp dew pt of 11 c. The rest of the atmospheric
profile is relatively dry (outside of the current surface temp dew pt
spreads), and with breaks in the clouds around today, MAX temps
should reach into the mid to upper 70s (still slightly below normal),
as yesterday we still did make it into the upper 60s to lower 70s,
even with the thicker cloud cover.

Energetic westerly flow over the northern CONUS with additional
upper level energy ejecting out of the four corners region, making
for a difficult forecast over the next couple of days with pretty
good moisture content (pw values 1.25-1.75 inches) (125-150 percent
of normal) stretched from the central plains to the mid atlantic
coast.

Strong consensus with deepening surface wave slowly tracking through
the ohio valley in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame. But this wave
will probably end up being fairly compact with increasing fgen
forcing, and northern fringe of the instability gradient (negative
li's) looks to barely reach slip past the southern michigan border.

Weak northern stream trough axis and associated cold front tracking
through the central great lakes on Wednesday, and there is a narrow
850- 700 mb theta-e ridge and moisture pooling (pw values up to 1.5
inches) which will track across southeast michigan during the day.

This will probably be sufficient for at least scattered showers, but
instability is weak, with 1000-850 mb capes progged under 500 j kg.

This is good news as 0-6 km bulk shear is progged to be a healthy 40
knots.

Post trough upper level ridging will then attempt to help push the
boundary a bit south Wednesday evening. However, consolidating upper
level PV taking place across the midwest western ohio valley, spins
up low pressure which slowly tracks east along the tightening
baroclinic zone Wednesday night-Thursday. If the wave ends up
weaker flatter, there is a chance the rain shield or certainly the
bulk of the heavy rain will skirt to the south of the state (see 12z
euro), as we will need a stronger wave low level jet to shift the
stout 850 mb fgen over southeast michigan (see 00z NAM regional gem).

With 850 mb dew pts of 12-14 c, even with the lack of
instability thunderstorms, efficient heavy rain producing showers
will be a concern with relatively slow movement of the focused
forcing which looks to quickly wane Thursday afternoon. 00z gfs
ensemble members actually look a bit more variable than last night.

One cluster of surface lows of northern ohio on Thursday, with bigger
cluster over southern ohio. This does not give one confidence to
increase pops much over southeast michigan, but the 00z euro has
trended back north again, and will be carrying high likely pops for
the south half of the cwa.

The forecast for the weekend looks even more complicated and wet as
the large upper level low slipping into the pacific northwest pivots
through the northern plains, allowing for a building dirty upper
level ridge over the mississippi river into ontario. Warm
front baroclinic zone over the western great lakes into lower
michigan through much of the weekend, with high degree of instability
developing over the western ohio valley for complexes (mcs) to tap
into. Large degree of timing uncertainty this far out however.

Marine...

favorable marine conditions continue today and tonight with weak
high pressure positioned over lake huron and lower michigan. This
promotes light and variable wind and nearly calm waves through
tonight. Dry weather is also expected with the exception of
scattered showers possibly brushing northern lake huron tonight. The
showers are connected to a weak front that brings just a light
northerly wind shift as it settles across the central great lakes to
south of lake erie by Wednesday. The next low pressure system
develops over the central plains and moves along the front toward
the west end of lake erie Thursday. This system produces a moderate
increase in NE wind and brings a new round of rain mainly from
saginaw bay southward from Wednesday night through Thursday. Weak
high pressure follows by Friday.

Hydrology...

weak high pressure brings one more day of dry weather before rain
probability increases Wednesday and Thursday. Midnight Wednesday
night to noon Thursday is the primary time window for rainfall as a
low pressure system tracks near the southern michigan border. Totals
are projected to range from around a quarter inch across the saginaw
valley and northern thumb to around three quarters inch toward the
ohio border. Locally higher totals of 1 to 2 inches remain possible
depending on thunderstorm coverage and duration. Given this
scenario, the potential for shorter time period flooding is limited
to poor drainage areas while possibly contributing more runoff into
already swollen creeks and streams across the area in the longer
term.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Tf
discussion... Sf
marine... ... .Bt
hydrology... .Bt
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 25 mi37 min E 5.1 G 5.1 66°F 1013.9 hPa (-1.7)
45147 - Lake St Clair 36 mi37 min NW 1.9 G 1.9 65°F 68°F1013.6 hPa (-1.1)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 48 mi77 min SE 1.9 G 2.9 67°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI9 mi41 minSW 510.00 miOvercast76°F54°F48%1014.2 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI12 mi44 minVar 510.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F60°F62%1012.8 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI18 mi44 minESE 710.00 miA Few Clouds75°F59°F58%1013.3 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI19 mi44 minSSE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F59°F54%1013.3 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI22 mi44 minSSW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F61°F56%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from VLL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3E5NE4E5E3E4CalmE3E3CalmCalmNE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3NE4S4S3SE5S4
1 day agoNE5N6NE6NE8NE6NE5E4N4NE3NE4N4NE3NE4N5NE5CalmCalmN3N3N5E4CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSW11
G15
SW9SW7SW7CalmCalmNE6NE6NE8N6NE8NE4N3CalmN4NE6N4NE4N5N5N6NE6N4N5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.