Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Farmington Hills, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 7:58PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 1:15 AM EDT (05:15 UTC) Moonrise 7:31AMMoonset 8:58PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ422 /o.exp.kdtx.ma.w.0002.000000t0000z-170224t2145z/ 436 Pm Est Fri Feb 24 2017
.the special marine warning will expire at 445 pm est... The affected areas were... St. Clair river... The Thunderstorms have moved out of the warned area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. A severe Thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 pm est for southeastern michigan. Lat...lon 4262 8252 4256 8262 4258 8262 4257 8267 4259 8269 4259 8265 4260 8270 4262 8265 4262 8267 4266 8262 4268 8271 4267 8271 4271 8272 4268 8260 4265 8259 4264 8256 4276 8251 4289 8251 4292 8246 time...mot...loc 2136z 242deg 61kt 4289 8228 4270 8221
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ422 Expires:201702242146;;591600 FZUS73 KDTX 242136 MWSDTX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 436 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2017 LCZ422-242146-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Farmington Hills, MI
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location: 42.51, -83.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 290355
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1155 pm edt Tue mar 28 2017

Aviation
Vfr conditions are expected throughout the forecast period as dry
nne flow maintains generally clear low levels. Upper clouds will
begin to increase Wednesday afternoon/evening as low pressure lifts
into the mid mississippi valley, but ceilings should remain above
10kft for this forecast.

For dtw...VFR conditions are expected this forecast period now that
stratus is well south of the terminal. Otherwise, NE flow in the 4-7
knot range will persist into Tuesday around high pressure.

//dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

Prev discussion
Issued at 314 pm edt Tue mar 28 2017
discussion...

12z dtx sounding revealed stout low level inversion at 900 mb, which
has been able to sustain clouds thus far with the low level
northeast flow coming off lake huron. However, afternoon mixing and
lowering inversion heights is supporting a north-south clearing
tread over the central great lakes, which should continue into the
early evening hours. Weak shortwave trough passing through the
northern great lakes early this evening, with cold air filtering in
overnight (925/850 mb temps lowering into negative low to mid
numbers over lake huron), which looks to support a redevelopment of
lake huron stratus (although significant differences noted in 925 mb
rh fields between nam/gfs/hiresarw/euro), pushing inland during the
day on Wednesday, as differential heating leads to increasing
northeast flow, and potential low/circulation developing (see
regional gem).

Between clouds and northeast flow off lake huron, looks like there
will be a significant range in MAX temps, from mid 40s across the
far north, to low-mid 50s across the far southwest, farthest removed
from lake huron. Once again, afternoon mixing/boundary layer depths
increasing expected to dissipate low clouds late, but warm advection
mid/high clouds should then be on the increase ahead of our next
storm system. Low level thermal profiles will be borderline as
precipitation overspreads southeast michigan Wednesday night-
Thursday morning, as it looks like a narrow/700 mb fgen band could
break out/develop as good surge of moisture takes place, with 700 mb
specific humidity climbing to 5 g/kg by Thursday morning.

Interestingly, the 12z NAM is one of the driest solutions with the
low level dry air holding into Thursday for most of southeast
michigan. Meanwhile, 12z euro is one of the more aggressive
solutions in terms of qpf, but 1000-850 mb thicknesses all above
1305 m along and south of i-69 corridor, suggesting all rain. Bottom
line, expecting mainly a rain event as surface temps in the 30s
Wednesday night climb into the 40s on Thursday, but a brief period
of snow is possible late Wednesday night-Thursday morning, mainly
north of m-59 if precipitation rates are sufficiently high enough to
wet bulb/saturate the initially above freezing warm layer (2-6 kft
per NAM soundings). If that narrow but potentially intense 700 mb
fgen materializes, a narrow swath of wet snow accumulation is
possible for Thursday morning commute, best shot along and north of
i-69 corrdidor, but local SREF weighted probablistic guidance
suggests rain, with low chance of snow north of i-69.

Low pressure pushing east across northern ohio will bring the
continued chance for rain on Friday as it pushes east into new
england. The chance for rain is expected to diminish through the late
morning and afternoon hours, as a surface high starts to edge in
from the west. The weekend looks to be shaping up to be a nice one,
as cloud cover gradually diminishes and temperatures warm-up slightly
into the mid- 50s for a high. Temperatures are expected to climb
into the upper 50s to lower 60s for the early half of next week as se
winds usher in milder air.

Low pressure pushing NE from texas into the ohio valley Monday into
Tuesday will bring the next chance for rain. There are slight
variations regarding the track of the low, however, long-range
models are showing convergence regarding precipitation Monday night
into Tuesday. Additional rain showers will be possible as a second
low develops from the central plains into michigan Tuesday into
Wednesday. Confidence is much lower regarding this system as the gem
holds off on this potential system until late next week.

Marine...

existing moderate northerly flow /15 to 20 kts/ over the southern
lake huron basin will gradually ease tonight as high pressure starts
to build into the region. Winds will hold from the northeast
through Wednesday as this high settles in. Wind speeds will remain
more modest during this time. Winds will strengthen out of the east
beginning Thursday as the region settles between this high pressure
system and approaching low pressure. A period of moderate winds
will continue through Friday as this low tracks through the ohio
valley. The increased gustiness and prolonged onshore flow will
likely result in small craft advisory conditions during this time.

Gusts over the lake huron openwaters currently expected to peak at
around 30 knots.

Hydrology...

moisture will expand into the region on Thursday as low pressure
tracks into the ohio valley. This will result in widespread
rainfall Thursday and Thursday night. Rainfall may linger through
early Friday. At this time, rainfall amounts are forecast to range
between 0.5 and 0.75 inches. The potential for locally upwards of
an inch will be possible.

Dtx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Dg
discussion... Sf/am
marine... ... .Mr
hydrology... .Mr
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 25 mi76 min N 11 G 14 40°F 1023.7 hPa (+1.7)
AGCM4 44 mi46 min 35°F 1023 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 48 mi76 min NNE 7 G 8.9 39°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 57 mi46 min ENE 6 G 8 41°F 1022.6 hPa35°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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NE9
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G9
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SW4

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI9 mi22 minN 310.00 miFair38°F30°F77%1024 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI12 mi23 minN 510.00 miFair35°F30°F82%1023.9 hPa
Detroit, Detroit City Airport, MI18 mi23 minNNE 510.00 miFair37°F32°F82%1024.1 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI19 mi23 minNNE 610.00 miFair39°F32°F76%1024.3 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI22 mi23 minNNE 410.00 miFair39°F34°F82%1024 hPa

Wind History from VLL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5NE9NE6NE6N7
G14
N5N3N4N7N8N8N7N10
G15
N6NW9N9N7N9NE9NE6N6N3N5N3
1 day agoCalmSW3SW3CalmSW4SW3SW4SW4SW6SW7SW5SW6SW8W11SW5W5SW4W5W3W3N6N3N3N6
2 days agoE7NE7E8E6E7E4CalmE7E3E5SE6S4CalmE7E4E3E5E4CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.