Tuesday, October16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Farmington Hills, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:47AMSunset 6:50PM Tuesday October 16, 2018 9:38 PM EDT (01:38 UTC) Moonrise 1:56PMMoonset 11:34PM Illumination 50% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ422 238 Am Edt Sat Oct 6 2018
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters... The areas affected include... St. Clair river... Lake st. Clair... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... At 237 am edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to up 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located 27 nm west of luna pier, or 29 nm west of north cape, moving northeast at 30 knots. Locations impacted include... Grosse ile, elizabeth park marina, gibraltar, estral beach, bolles harbor of refuge, woodland beach, stony point, mt clemens harbor of refuge, Monroe harbor, st clair flats old channel light, detroit river light, north cape, belle isle, the ambassador bridge, new baltimore, grosse pointe, st. Clair shores, luna pier, wyandotte and lake erie metropark harbor. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. Intense lightning is occurring with these storms. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible, keep away from ungrounded metal objects. && lat...lon 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4226 8317 4233 8311 4239 8295 4266 8285 4271 8271 4269 8260 4264 8256 4268 8251 4261 8252 4254 8266 4237 8283 4230 8309 4205 8315 4196 8311 4172 8341
LCZ422 Expires:201810060815;;734593 FZUS73 KDTX 060638 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 238 AM EDT SAT OCT 6 2018 LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-060815-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Farmington Hills, MI
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location: 42.51, -83.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 162343
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
743 pm edt Tue oct 16 2018

Aviation
Strong gusts out of the southwest of around 25-30 knots have mostly
subsided to begin this TAF period. Gusts will continue to decrease
into the overnight time frame, but sustained winds will stay elevated
around 10 knots ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds veer from
west to northwest with the frontal passage. Wind shift will occur
around 08z at mbs and by around 10z at dtw. Mostly low endVFR
ceilings to accompany the front. A few transient high end MVFR
ceilings are possible with any light rain showers or isolated snow
showers that develop off lake michigan and move into southeast
michigan. Rain snow chances too low to mention in tafs at this point
at any TAF site. Post frontal cold advection will yield wind gusts
of around 20 knots during the day tomorrow with ceilings hovering
around high MVFR to lowVFR.

For dtw... Gusts have mostly subsided at dtw with sustained winds
remaining around 10 knots through tonight. Low clouds will accompany
the front with mostly low endVFR conditions and a few transient
MVFR.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* medium to high for cig AOB 5000 feet tonight and tomorrow.

Prev discussion
Issued at 310 pm edt Tue oct 16 2018
discussion...

temperatures in the low 50s accompanied by gusts near 30 mph within
well-mixed southwest flow this afternoon. Surface obs reveal a weak
cold front over northwest wi and central mn behind which
temperatures are solidly in the 40s, except 30s beneath extensive
stratus deck. A 140kt jet downstream of the amplifying western us
trough will amplify the PV anomaly presently over lake winnipeg,
strengthening the front and forcing it southeast through tonight.

Minimal precipitation within the dry and weakly forced environment
in advance of the front, the passage of which is forecast to occur
roughly 10-15z from the NW to SE Wednesday morning. Amplifying wave
will sweep across the peninsula in the wake of surface fropa,
deepening convective depths over the lake just as cold air begins
spreading into the area. Considered along with deep, albeit brief,
dynamic support, increased pops solidly into chc category
immediately in the wake of the front over central and western
portions of the CWA where lake enhancement will be possible prior to
veering of the wind profile after sunrise.

Wednesday will otherwise be largely dry with minimal diurnal
recovery, especially over the northwest two-thirds of the cwa, owing
to a variable coverage of stratocu over the area (best chance for
clearing in downslope areas) and ongoing cold advection. Temps will
struggle into the low mid 40s north of about m59 and will likely be
falling everywhere by 18z. A few afternoon convective cores are
plausible as the back edge of the trough moves through during peak
heating. Any locally intense core could produce a few flakes along
and north of the terrain after 21z, but coverage is forecast to be
sparse and larger scale support will be waning by this time anyway.

Maintained chc pops for -rasn in the thumb to account for stray
superior-michigan lake effect potential lingering into the evening.

Expansive polar high translates off the front range into the ohio
valley by Wednesday night. A secondary surface trough will bring
renewed cold advection during the first half of the night further
lowering 850mb temps to below -10c followed by an increased
likelihood for decoupling during the second half of the night,
especially over western portions of the area. This will be the final
advertised freeze of the season as temps fall into the 20s over most
of the area.

Strongly confluent northwest flow aloft will ensure clear or mostly
clear skies, save for some high cirrus, on Thursday while return
flow around the gradually departing surface high lags until late in
the day. Deep mixing within the resident cold airmass will set the
stage for temps for an appreciable diurnal jump with highs forecast
to touch 50 degrees within diminished westerly flow. Emerging return
flow by Thursday night will support stagnant or rising temps,
especially west of the ridgeline.

A strong pressure gradient is expected to set up across the great
lakes in response to low pressure centered over northern ontario and
a strong high pressure centered over carolinas. As a response,
breezy southwest flow gusting between 20 - 30 mph will help push
temperatures into the 50s for a daytime high on Friday. Cyclonic
flow will take hold late Friday into Saturday as an amplified upper-
level trough digs in across the midwest. This thermal trough will
diminish h850 temperatures below the 0c mark and will also bring the
chance for a cold lake effect drizzle Saturday morning and afternoon
as CAA ramps up across the warmer great lakes waters. Additionally,
mechanical mixing from the increase in cooler air aloft will allow
gusts between 20 - 30 mph to persist during daylight hours. Uniform
northwest from from the surface up to the mid-levels will continue
to bring in cold, canadian air, dropping h850 temperatures to an
average of -7c by Sunday at 18z. As a result, daytime high
temperatures will be capped in the upper 40s to lower 50s Saturday
and down into the low to mid 40s by Sunday.

Upper-level flow will turn more zonal for the early part of next
week which will moderate temperatures, capping highs in the low to
mid-50s by Tuesday. On and off precipitation chances will be for the
early-half of next week, however, too much discrepancy is noted
between model runs at this time to pinpoint timing and location.

Marine...

northwest gales over the open waters of lake huron have settled down
to around 30 knots during the early morning. The wind will now shift
southwest and increase again into the 35 to 40 knot gale range
through today affecting mainly saginaw bay along with central and
northern lake huron. Gale warnings remain in effect through this
evening for saginaw bay and lake huron north of harbor beach. Small
craft advisories remain in effect for all other marine areas through
western lake erie.

Gales subside to gusts around 30 knots by mid evening through the
overnight as the pressure gradient relaxes in the vicinity of the
cold front moving through the central great lakes. However, wind
veers and strengthens Wednesday with northwest gales possible once
again. Given the lengthy break tonight, and some uncertainty on
timing and magnitude Wednesday, a gale watch has been issued for
central and northern lake huron for Wednesday into Wednesday evening.

High pressure then builds into the ohio valley and southern great
lakes for a short time through Thursday before the active weather
pattern resumes with another strong cold front Friday night.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Gale warning until 10 pm edt Wednesday for lhz362-363-462.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt Wednesday for lhz443.

Gale warning from 8 am to 10 pm edt Wednesday for lhz361-463.

Small craft advisory until 10 am edt Thursday for lhz441-442.

Gale warning until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422.

Lake st clair... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt Wednesday for lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt Wednesday for lez444.

Aviation... ..Aa
discussion... Jvc am
marine... ... .Sf
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 25 mi39 min SW 8 G 13 51°F 1015.9 hPa (+1.3)
45147 - Lake St Clair 36 mi39 min SW 18 G 23 53°F 55°F2 ft1014.8 hPa (+0.3)
AGCM4 44 mi39 min 52°F 57°F1014.7 hPa (+0.5)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 48 mi39 min WSW 25 G 28 54°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 57 mi39 min WSW 11 G 14 51°F 1016.5 hPa (-0.0)26°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI9 mi44 minSW 810.00 miFair52°F24°F35%1015.6 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI12 mi46 minSSW 910.00 miFair48°F28°F48%1015 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI18 mi46 minWSW 1110.00 miFair50°F28°F43%1015.9 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI19 mi46 minSW 1110.00 miA Few Clouds50°F28°F44%1016.2 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI22 mi46 minSW 810.00 miFair49°F30°F48%1016 hPa

Wind History from VLL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5SW3SW3SW3W3CalmSW5CalmSW3SW4SW4SW6SW8SW10
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW5S5SW6SW5W5
G8
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2 days agoSW3CalmSW3S4S3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5S7SW5SE6SE5S6S6SE6S7SE4SE4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.