Tuesday, August21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Farmington Hills, MI

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Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 8:26PM Tuesday August 21, 2018 6:01 PM EDT (22:01 UTC) Moonrise 4:32PMMoonset 1:20AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ422 447 Pm Edt Mon Aug 6 2018
.a strong Thunderstorm approaching the waters... The areas affected include... NEarshore and open waters from port sanilac to port huron mi... St. Clair river... At 446 pm edt, doppler radar indicated a strong Thunderstorm, capable of producing winds to up 30 knots. This Thunderstorm will move was located near st. Clair, moving north at 20 knots. The strong Thunderstorm will move over far southern lake huron just after 5 pm. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes. && a severe Thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 700 pm edt for southeastern michigan. Lat...lon 4300 8242 4307 8246 4307 8245 4312 8247 4313 8249 4323 8252 4332 8253 4335 8254 4336 8253 4339 8223
LCZ422 Expires:201808062145;;656526 FZUS73 KDTX 062047 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 447 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018 LCZ422-LHZ443-464-062145-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Farmington Hills, MI
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location: 42.51, -83.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 211921
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
321 pm edt Tue aug 21 2018

Discussion
Real moist airmass in place today over southeast michigan, as 12z
dtx sounding came in with a 6 c dew pt at 700 mb. Even so, wide
ranging rainfall totals across southeast michigan, with many
locations seeing less than a quarter of an inch, while several
locations saw amounts exceeding 1.25 inches (mainly north of m-46),
with isolated totals even reaching or exceeding 3 inches over
midland huron counties.

Upper level shortwave trough tracking through minnesota this
afternoon, helping to open up and kick along the upper level wave
and surface low over lower michigan and deeper moisture off to the
east. The overall coverage trend of activity should be gradually
diminishing. However, a secondary and narrow moisture axis
associated with the northern stream trough tracking through the
western great lakes this evening still could prove sufficient to
generate scattered showers isolated thunderstorms, as there still
looks to be potentially 500 j kg of mlcapes to work with, as mid
level temps begin to crash, as the -15 c cold pool at 500 mb arrives
toward 9z Wednesday. Still, with the increasing low level northwest
flow, looks like there is not much low level convergence, but would
not be surprised to see patchy drizzle sprinkles overnight with the
cold advection kicking in and stubborn low level moisture potentially
sticking around.

Good subsidence drying to occur Wednesday morning, but a
re-enforcing shortwave trough cold pool from central canada looks to
be arriving during the afternoon hours. None-the-less, airmass looks
too dry, especially mid levels (15 to 30 c dew pt depressions at 700
mb) to support showers, as any instability generated looks meager,
with sbcapes perhaps reaching a couple hundred j kg at most. 850 mb
temps reaching 10 c suggest highs in the mid 70s.

Large surface high over iowa late tomorrow will slide into the
western ohio valley Wednesday night. Probably going to maintain just
enough surface wind to prevent fog (outside of warm inland lakes),
as mins drop down predominately into the lower 50s.

Height rises upper level ridge building into lower michigan on
Thursday will allow for temperatures to reach back around normal
with light westerly flow and 850 mb temps exceeding 13 c (per euro),
supportive of highs around 80 degrees.

A closed upper-level low centered over the eastern dakotas will push
east and start to weaken and open up Friday into Saturday, which
will provide rain chances to SE mi throughout the weekend. Ahead of
the low, a separate piece of upper-level energy and increase in waa
will provide rain and thunderstorm chances starting Friday evening
into Saturday morning. Rain chances Friday into Saturday morning
will be further enhanced by left exit region dynamics from a
weakening upper-level jet that edges into northern ohio by 06z.

Otherwise, surface low and associated upper level PV anomaly will
center across northern lower michigan by Saturday afternoon and will
continue to provide rain and thunderstorm chances for the day. The
low will be far removed from michigan by Sunday morning, however,
long range models in pretty good agreement with a warm front edging
into michigan throughout Sunday (h850 averaging 20c by 18z),
providing lift and instability for thunderstorm chances.

A ridge of warm air is expected to situate across michigan early
next week which would bring above normal temperatures and chance for
thunderstorms as this unstable air mass remains across the area.

Marine
A strong low pressure system will exit east of the region this
evening with a secondary cold front then dropping southward through
the region overnight. A strengthening pressure gradient and cold air
surging into the region will make for unsettled conditions across
the lakes with northwest winds gusting to 25 to 30 knots through
Wednesday afternoon. An extended period of small craft conditions
lasting through Wednesday expected over the nearshore waters and
saginaw bay under increasing wave heights and gusty conditions.

Winds and waves gradually decrease late Wednesday and Wednesday
night as high pressure slowly builds into the region.

Prev discussion
Issued at 217 pm edt Tue aug 21 2018
aviation...

low pressure center positioned directly over lower michigan creating
variable sky conditions across the area this afternoon. Mainly MVFR
cigs will carry us into the overnight with some brief pockets of ifr
with showers possible. Will leave prevailing showers in the TAF for
the afternoon as coverage is increasing once again. Thunder chances
remain low thus will not mention in the going forecast. A secondary
cold front will then drop through the state quickly behind the
exiting low which looks to bring a few hours of ifr CIGS late
tonight into Wednesday morning. Drier air will then surge into the
area bringing rapidly improving CIGS through the late morning.

Southwest winds will flip to the northwest in the wake of the low
this evening and remain elevated through the night.

For dtw... Scattered showers will continue throughout lower mi this
afternoon. There is a low chance of a thunderstorm to impact the
terminal but with no thunder over the last few hours, will hold out
of the tafs and amend if needed.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling below 5000 ft today and tonight.

* low for thunderstorm occurrence today.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Beach hazards statement through Wednesday afternoon for miz049-055.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt Wednesday for lhz421-422-
441>443.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Sf am
marine... ... .Drk
aviation... ..Drk
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 25 mi93 min W 13 G 25 82°F 1005.1 hPa
AGCM4 44 mi31 min 77°F 1005.4 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 48 mi41 min W 13 G 15 78°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 57 mi31 min WNW 12 G 17 79°F 1007.2 hPa65°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI9 mi66 minWNW 18 G 2210.00 miPartly Cloudy and Breezy80°F64°F59%1006.8 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI12 mi68 minNW 13 G 2210.00 miOvercast75°F66°F74%1006 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI18 mi68 minWNW 14 G 2210.00 miA Few Clouds81°F64°F57%1005.3 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI19 mi68 minWNW 17 G 2210.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F64°F62%1006 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI22 mi68 minWNW 16 G 2310.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F66°F62%1006.2 hPa

Wind History from VLL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7E5E8E5E7E10E6E4NE4E3E4CalmS8SW5S5S5SW7SW6SW8
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1 day agoCalmSE4SE3S4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmN3E7E4E8E7E6E6E6E10E8
2 days agoE6E8N8NE7NE7NE5NE5NE4NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3SE3E7CalmSE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.