Saturday, June23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Farmington Hills, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 9:16PM Saturday June 23, 2018 1:57 PM EDT (17:57 UTC) Moonrise 3:58PMMoonset 2:18AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ422 409 pm edt Mon jun 18 2018 a marine weather statement has been issued for the following areas... NEarshore and open waters from port sanilac to port huron mi... St. Clair river... At 408 pm edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to up 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 nm east of port huron to 12 nm northwest of st. Clair, moving east at 30 knots. Locations impacted include... Algonac and st. Clair. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, lightning strikes, and heavy downpours. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4296 8242 4299 8242 4262 8252 4261 8253 4260 8256 4255 8259 4256 8259 4261 8256 4257 8259 4258 8259 4261 8258 4261 8259 4256 8262 4256 8260 4255 8264 4300 8242 4297 8241 LCZ422 Expires:201806182115;;741688 FZUS73 KDTX 182009 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 409 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2018 LCZ422-LHZ443-464-182115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Farmington Hills, MI
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location: 42.51, -83.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 231630
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1230 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018

Aviation
Circulation over wayne county this morning producing numerous
showers is exiting east early this afternoon. However, trailing low
level convergence will still offer up opportunity for scattered
showers slight chance of a thunderstorm. Diurnal surface heating
lifting CIGS into high MVFR lowVFR late this afternoon
outside of any showers. In addition, with the low level convergence
axis tending to shift north this evening, there is opportunity for
yip dtw to dry out even more with light westerly wind developing,
and going to carry optimisticVFR conditions for most of the
evening, with MVFR high ifr CIGS for northern tafs.

However, it is only a matter of time before low clouds sweep back
south, and certainly possible for period of ifr CIGS by sunrise,
with renewed shower development tracking through late
tonight tomorrow morning before final push of dry air and winds
shift to the north-northeast Sunday afternoon.

For dtw... Still very low chance of a thunderstorm developing this
afternoon, with another chance late tomorrow morning early tomorrow
afternoon. Confidence inVFR conditations this evening is average at
best, and MVFR or even ifr CIGS could re-develop sooner than
currently projected.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* high for ceiling 5000 feet or less through entire period.

* low for thunderstorms this afternoon and late tomorrow morning
early tomorrow afternoon.

Prev discussion
Issued at 304 am edt Sat jun 23 2018
discussion...

the mid level circulation over the oh in border as of 06z will lift
across toledo around 12z this morning before slowly lifting
northeastward across metro detroit late morning early afternoon. A
mid level impulse circulating around the upper low has been lifting
into the thumb region overnight, forcing a little better region of
enhanced lift isentropic ascent. This has resulted in more
widespread showers across the thumb northward across lake huron.

While this region of showers will slowly lift northward this
morning, a secondary axis of higher mid level theta E air will push
into metro detroit with the approach of the mid level low, leading
to an increase in coverage of showers. The upper low is forecast to
slowly open as it exits east of the area this afternoon. This will
support some degree of mid level height rises across SE mi.

With the approach of the associated sfc low, there has been an
increase in low level moisture overnight, causing sfc dewpoints to
rise into the 60s. The sfc low will drift across metro detroit this
afternoon. Despite the cloud cover, daytime heating will boost
afternoon temps into the 70s. This will result in the development of
weak daytime instability, limited by rather shallow mid level lapse
rates. This will support the development of scattered convection,
with the greatest coverage across the eastern portions of the
forecast area. Storm strength will be hindered by both the weak mid
level wind fields and limited instability. Moisture quality will be
adequate to support some heavier downpours, providing at least a
potential of locally higher rain totals given the slow storm
movement. Boundary layer convergence will persist across SE mi well
into the evening as a sfc trough axis lingers across the area as the
sfc low heads east. The mid level height rises should prove a
limiting factor on late afternoon evening convective development,
warranting just scattered type pops.

Model solutions indicate some development amplification in a mid
level short wave trough axis forecast to slide across lower michigan
late tonight through Sunday. This will support a chance of some
showers along the remnant sfc trough cold front which will slowly
slide south across the area during the day. The potential for some
afternoon destabilization will support a slight chance of some
thunder, mainly south of the i-69 corridor on Sunday. Lake modified
air within the north-northeast winds behind this front will lead to
relatively cool conditions across much of the thumb and
saginaw valley.

Mid level ridging will expand across the great lakes Sun night into
Monday as the long wave pattern undergoes amplification, with a long
wave trough set to extend across ERN canada and new england. Sfc high
pressure will then be driven across the northern and ERN great
lakes, leading to much drier conditions across the area. Medium
range model solutions break this pattern down rather quickly, with a
mid level wave set to rotate from the upper midwest across the nrn
great lakes tues night. This will drive a warmer, more moist and
unstable airmass across lower mi tues into tues night, supporting
the next chance for showers thunderstorms. A warming trend looks
likely during the latter end of the week as mid level ridging
expands across the ohio valley (and possibly into the SRN great
lakes).

Marine...

broad and weak low pressure will continue to slowly move
northeastward across lower michigan today and into tonight. Winds
will become light and variable across much of the local waters with
the low passage except for modest northeasterly flow across northern
and central lake huron generally below 15 knots. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms will accompany the frontal passage. Light
north northeasterly flow less than 20 knots in the wake of the
departing low pressure will become established across the local
waters Sunday and into Monday as dry high pressure builds south
across the great lakes.

Hydrology...

occasional showers with isolated thunderstorms will continue across
southeast michigan through today as low pressure moves northeast
across the region. Rainfall amounts will generally be a quarter of
an inch or less, although locally higher amounts will be possible
within thunderstorm activity. Widespread flooding is not
anticipated, although minor poor drainage flooding of susceptible
areas will be possible within any thunderstorms. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms may linger into Sunday as well with
additional light rainfall possible. Drier air will work into the
region late Sunday and into Monday as high pressure builds across
michigan.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Sf
discussion... Sc
marine... ... .Irl
hydrology... .Irl
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 25 mi58 min ENE 7 G 8 68°F 1006.1 hPa (+0.0)
45147 - Lake St Clair 36 mi58 min ENE 3.9 G 3.9 66°F 64°F1004.9 hPa (-0.2)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 48 mi38 min Calm G 0 73°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI9 mi63 minNE 510.00 miOvercast74°F66°F77%1006.1 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI12 mi65 minN 710.00 miOvercast72°F66°F84%1005.1 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI18 mi65 minNE 43.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist71°F68°F90%1005.1 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI19 mi65 minE 57.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F64°F79%1005.3 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI22 mi65 minNW 910.00 miOvercast75°F66°F76%1005.1 hPa

Wind History from VLL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE10E14
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1 day agoE7E7E8NE7NE9E9NE12
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NE7NE9NE6NE8E9NE7NE8NE7NE10NE7E7NE7E7E12
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2 days agoNE3N5NW4N5N3NE4NE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5NE5NE5NE7NE7NE9E8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.