Thursday, July20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Beverly Hills, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:12AMSunset 9:05PM Thursday July 20, 2017 6:29 PM EDT (22:29 UTC) Moonrise 2:28AMMoonset 5:24PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 345 Am Edt Thu Jul 20 2017
Today..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Partly Sunny. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..North winds 5 to 10 knots early in the morning becoming light and variable. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Light and variable winds becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy early in the evening becoming mostly cloudy. A chance of light showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201707202015;;531302 FZUS63 KDTX 200745 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 345 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Weak low pressure, 29.80 inches, will track along a front stalled between western Lake Erie and southern Lake Huron today and then move to the east tonight. Thunderstorms will be possible with this system before weak high pressure develops Friday. The next low pressure system is then projected to approach the region Friday night and bring another round of stormy weather for much of the weekend. Winds will be light with little impact on waves outside of thunderstorms. LCZ460-202015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beverly Hills, MI
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location: 42.52, -83.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 201954
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
354 pm edt Thu jul 20 2017

Discussion
Aggressive stratocumulus development has occurred this afternoon and
is spreading rapidly across much of southeastern michigan. Back loop
on satellite imagery suggests this cloud is resulting from higher
near surface moisture outflow that emanated northeastward away from
mcs activity last night over portions of northern illinois and
indiana. Forcing for ascent lines up well ahead of the midlevel
700mb dry push that was highlighted in the update discussion.

Clearing behind this cloud and cumulus along the I 94 corridor back
from jackson to battle creeks shows some potential for convective
development yet in the 20-22z time window. Will continue a low
chance pop south of I 69 late this afternoon. No severe weather
anticipated.

Rising 1000-500mb geopotential heights in tandem with possibly 2
seperate bouts of (negative) differential cyclonic vorticity
advection will support surface high pressure over the great lakes
regions tonight and Friday. A superb day of mid summer weather. It
will be very warm, increased temperatures to around 90 degrees.

Item of interest has now become what will the likelihood be for
numerous to widespread thunderstorm development late Friday night
and Saturday. The big difference with the pattern by then will be
the entrance region of the upper level jet axis will finally arrive
and push into the straits by late Friday night. This will
effectively force the longwave to push eastward, movement that will
bring the main theta E ridge instability into a portion of the
southern great lakes. Some uncertainty does remain as to exactly how
far northward the instability gradient will get here in the cwa.

Models show the low level jet axis veering over into lower michigan
in response to the passing entrance region, which should allow for a
big warm air advection event centered around Saturday morning.

Certainly have no qualms with likely pops at this time. Depending on
trajectory of cells could even be looking at a heavy rainfall,
flooding potential. The big specter hanging over the certainty is
that there is no significant potential vorticity feature driving the
event, rather it will require some pre-existing convective
shortwave. Therefore, plenty of time exists for specifics. Some
potential does exist for severe weather Saturday, particularly if a
mature cold pool dominated MCS can track into the area (see swody3),
but uncertainty is high. Latest forecast soundings show plenty of
cloud and moisture which limits lapse rates and CAPE later on,
during the day Saturday.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will diminish by Sunday evening as a
low pressure system exits the area. High pressure will then build
into the great lakes region for Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing dry
conditions and sunshine. Shower and thunderstorm chances return
toward the end of the extended period as models indicate a weak cold
front moving through southeast michigan at some point between
Thursday and Friday. Daytime highs will be in the low 80s on Sunday
before a cold front will bring highs down into the mid to upper-70s
for Monday and Tuesday. A shift to southwesterly flow will then
bring temperatures back into the low-80s for Wednesday and Thursday.

Low temperatures will hover around the upper-50s to low-60s.

Marine
Outside of any thunderstorms, marine winds will be light and have
little impact on waves into the weekend, as high pressure moves in
tonight. The next low pressure system is projected to arrive
Saturday morning, triggering numerous showers and thunderstorms.

Broad low pressure looks to be persisting over the central great
lakes on Sunday as well, which could trigger additional scattered
activity with increasing northeast winds following Sunday night into
Monday. Wave heights at or above 4 feet across the southern lake
huron basin will be possible on Monday.

Hydrology
Low pressure coming out of the midwest Friday evening and tracking
into the western great lakes Friday night is expected to produce
showers and thunderstorms late Friday night into Saturday. There is
a slight chance the storms will be severe. The high moisture content
of the airmass will lead to flood concerns, with widespread 1 to 2
inches possible within a couple hours time if the stronger storms
materialize, with localized higher amounts. However, it remains
possible the bulk of the complex and heavy rain tracks south of the
michigan border.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1250 pm edt Thu jul 20 2017
aviation...

weak instability developing this afternoon expected to limit
convection, and much of southeast michigan will likely remain dry.

Surface dew pts have also fallen into the 65 to 70 degree range as
we mixed well late this morning. Still enough low level moisture to
support sct diurnal cu, but not sure on bkn. Lack of rain and drier
air calls into question the fog development tonight, and will err
more on the optimistic side. Otherwise, surface high pressure moving
overhead should promote mostly clear skies and light and variable
winds well into tomorrow.

For dtw... Any thunderstorm activity which develops is expected to be
isolated and likely missing terminal to the south. Still will hold
onto bkn skies near 5000 feet this afternoon, but confidence is not
high.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for cigs AOB 5000 ft this afternoon.

* low for thunderstorms this afternoon

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... CB am
marine... ... .Cb
hydrology... .Cb
aviation... ..Sf
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 20 mi30 min WNW 5.1 G 11 85°F 1013.5 hPa (-1.1)
45147 - Lake St Clair 31 mi90 min W 12 G 12 81°F 77°F1013.3 hPa (-0.7)
AGCM4 39 mi42 min 86°F 1013.3 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 48 mi40 min S 4.1 G 4.1 83°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 54 mi42 min 87°F 1012.7 hPa

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Last
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NE13
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NE9
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G13

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI4 mi35 minWSW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy85°F65°F53%1014.6 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI14 mi37 minW 710.00 miFair86°F66°F53%1013.2 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI14 mi37 minWSW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy83°F69°F63%1013.2 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI20 mi37 minWSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy86°F69°F57%1013.5 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI23 mi92 minW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy86°F67°F55%1014.3 hPa

Wind History from VLL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5NW7NE9NE6NE5E3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW5SW6W8SW10
G15
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G17
W8W8W4
G14
W8W6W5SW3
1 day agoS5SW9S7SW6SW4CalmCalmSW3W4W4SW4W3SW3SW3W4W4NW3NW6NW6W3SW5W11
G14
NW8W7
2 days agoNW7NW5SE3CalmCalmNE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4SW4S3W6SW4SW8W5CalmS5SW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.