Friday, May26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Beverly Hills, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 9:01PM Friday May 26, 2017 10:21 PM EDT (02:21 UTC) Moonrise 6:04AMMoonset 9:00PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 346 Pm Edt Fri May 26 2017
Tonight..Light and variable winds. Partly cloudy until early morning...then mostly cloudy with a chance of light showers early in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning...then light showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning...then diminishing to 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Mostly cloudy with showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms early in the evening...then partly cloudy with a chance of light showers in the late evening and early morning. Mostly clear early in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon...then becoming west 10 to 15 knots in the evening. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms... Then partly cloudy late in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201705270800;;248097 FZUS63 KDTX 261946 GLFSC LAKE ST CLAIR FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 346 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2017 WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. .SYNOPSIS...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING...29.90 INCHES...OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST THIS EVENING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE AVERAGING 29.70 INCHES WILL QUICKLY TRACK EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE...29.90 INCHES...THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AGAIN ON SATURDAY. LCZ460-270800-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beverly Hills, MI
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location: 42.52, -83.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 262321
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
721 pm edt Fri may 26 2017

Aviation
Residual stratocu field, associated with the expansive upper low to
the east of the region, is finally stripping out to the east.

However, a multi-layered cloud field is replacing it from the west.

These clouds are an extension of a wave driving the thunderstorm
complex over northern illinois. The storms are expected to remain
south of the detroit terminals. However, rain showers falling from a
mid-cloud deck to the north of the main convective activity is
likely for the southern sites. Expectations are for only minimal
reduction in visibility and for ceilings to remainVFR through the
rain episode.

There may be enough surface layer moisture convergence to aid in
some light fog formation around daybreak under light wind
conditions. Otherwise, a diurnal cloud field is expected to build
and increase in coverage during the late morning and persist through
the afternoon on Saturday. Winds will remain light but will favor
the easterly side of the compass as the surface low pressure
assoicated with the thunderstorms move south of the area.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for cigs AOB 5kft through 15z Saturday... Then high.

Prev discussion
Issued at 301 pm edt Fri may 26 2017
discussion...

while several shortwaves and associated low pressure systems will
affect the forecast area over the weekend, expect the overall
weather for Saturday and Sunday to be relatively decent given the
timing of these two systems.

The first shortwave is currently move east towards the chicago area
this afternoon. The rain shield associated with this system extends
generally from far southern wisconsin into northern illinois now
that it is exiting iowa. The northern part is primarily stratiform
in character while southern portion is characterized by a decent
degree of convection (particularly along south of surface low).

Models continue to have difficulty in determining just how much of
the stratiform precipitation will survive into tonight as convection
expands into warm sector across illinois indiana ohio fed by roughly
1000-1500 j kg of MLCAPE along south of warm front.

The northern extend of precipitation is generally rather limited in
such setups as convection along southern portion of eventual mcs
intercept much of the moisture feed. Will refine forecast to trim
out most rain chances north of the m-59 corridor. However, the upper
wave itself is rather well defined and still steering just north of
due east as it traverses mean upper ridging centered over the area.

This suggests that while northern extent of measurable precipitation
will be limited, southern area of the forecast area will still see a
good chance of rain. So, will increase precip chances into the 60 70
percent area late this evening into the overnight detroit south.

Given hires model runs, it appears the main question left is whether
the best rainfall is able to extend up to about i-696 or whether it
is subdued i-94 south.

This system will work east of the area early Saturday, so expect
rather nice conditions during the day as skies become partly cloudy
and temperatures climb well into the 70s most locations. Even winds
will be on the light side as a bubble of high pressure translates
into area.

The next shortwave, now over the central rockies, will progress into
the area on Sunday. Timing is a bit slower with this system than
model runs had yesterday at this time. If this trend continues, it
suggests the low pressure and attending warm front would work into
the area generally in the afternoon early evening. So, while there
are some rain chances in the morning, better coverage of showers or
storms would be 18z-02z or so.

This later timing would also support a better chance of strong
thunderstorms as the atmosphere over the region would theoretically
be allowed to destabilize for a larger part of the day. Either way,
coverage of measurable rain across the forecast area still looks to
be more extensive than tonight's system. It is mainly the timing of
said activity that remains mostly in question. This later arrival
supports guidance temperatures on Sunday into the 70s once again.

Much of next week will be dominated by an upper low positioned
across the NRN great lakes and NRN ontario. Subtle low level cold
air advection on memorial day will be offset by good diurnal mixing
depths. This will support warm (highs in the 70s) and breezy
conditions. An upper level short wave perturbation pivoting around
the upper low combined with cooling temps aloft will however support
a chance of late day convection. The quasi stationary nature of the
upper low tues into Wed will hold temps on the cool side of normal
to end the month of may. Diurnal contributions along with the
potential for additional mid level short wave features circulating
around the parent upper low will support continued chances for
diurnally enhanced showers. The medium range model suite generally
suggest the upper low will fill as it lifts into ERN canada during
the end of next week, supporting drier conditions across the great
lakes. Lingering low level thermal troughing holding back across the
ern great lakes may however support just a slight warming trend
during the end of the forecast period.

Marine...

light to moderate winds will oscillate between northwesterly and
southeasterly through Sunday night as a series of weak lows
traverses the region. Deep low pressure is forecast to stall north
of lake superior bringing a period of moderate southwest flow Monday
through Tuesday. Winds will gust to around 20 kts during this time,
especially in nearshore areas.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Mann
discussion... Dg sc
marine... ... .Jvc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 20 mi81 min SE 4.1 G 5.1 60°F 1012.2 hPa (+0.7)
AGCM4 39 mi51 min 57°F 1011.4 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 48 mi61 min ESE 8.9 G 8.9 63°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 54 mi51 min 55°F 1011.5 hPa

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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N7
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI4 mi27 minN 010.00 miFair64°F52°F67%1012.5 hPa
Detroit, Detroit City Airport, MI14 mi28 minN 010.00 miFair61°F54°F78%1011.8 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI14 mi28 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy61°F54°F78%1011.6 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI20 mi28 minS 410.00 miLight Rain64°F57°F78%1012.1 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI23 mi83 minS 310.00 miMostly Cloudy58°F57°F99%1011.5 hPa

Wind History from VLL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6NW7NW6NW6NW7NW8NW5NW6W5W5NW6W4NW6W6W4SW5W4W6SW7SW4NW5NW3SW3Calm
1 day ago----------E7E8NE8NE6NE5NE5NE5NE6NE5NE4N4N7N6NW6NW7NW9
G15
NW6NW9NW6
2 days agoNW5N5N7NE5NE8NE8NE8NE6NE5NE7NE6NE8E4E9E8
G15
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G16
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.