Wednesday, September20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Beverly Hills, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 7:33PM Wednesday September 20, 2017 3:38 AM EDT (07:38 UTC) Moonrise 6:34AMMoonset 7:07PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 947 Pm Edt Tue Sep 19 2017
Rest of tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Cloudy. A chance of light showers in the late evening and early morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Light and variable winds becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots until early morning becoming light and variable. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots until early morning becoming light and variable. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Light and variable winds. Mostly Sunny until late afternoon becoming clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Light and variable winds. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Light and variable winds. Clear. Waves nearly calm.
LCZ460 Expires:201709200815;;641839 FZUS63 KDTX 200147 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 947 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure, 30.20 inches, will reside over Quebec overnight. A weakening frontal boundary, average pressure 29.90 inches, will lift slowly into southern lower Michigan tonight. High pressure will expand across the eastern Great Lakes from Quebec on Wednesday, where it will hold steady through the weekend. LCZ460-200815-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beverly Hills, MI
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location: 42.52, -83.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 200355
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1155 pm edt Tue sep 19 2017

Aviation
Low level moisture remains high across southeast michigan, with
surface dew pts holding in the 60s. Mid high clouds have thinned out
in spots, which has allow for lower ceilings toward lifr in spots.

However, still not totally confident the ceilings will drop below
400 ft or in the development of dense fog, as a light easterly wind
remains and transient mid high clouds persist. Will continue to
monitor trends before 6z issuance, but anticipating going with ifr
conditions overnight into early tomorrow morning. Ceilings will then
be slow to lift on Wednesday, and probably going to take most of the
day to dissipate the high MVFR clouds during the afternoon with weak
surface winds persisting.

For dtw... Difficult ceiling and visibility forecast overnight, and
likely to dip into ifr with lifr possible by sunrise.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceilings below 5000 ft through early tomorrow afternoon,
then decreasing confidence late tomorrow afternoon.

* low for CIGS vis to fall below 200ft and or 1 2sm 8-14z.

Prev discussion
Issued at 756 pm edt Tue sep 19 2017
update...

showers have dramatically waned in the past couple of hours, and
have updated zones to reflect the low slight chance as upper level
pv center mid level cold pool (-11 c at 500 mb) along central
illinois indiana border is sinking southeast (away from area). With
dew pts running in the 60s, there is some concern for fog development
as subsidence and dryer air begins to arrive 8-12z tonight with
negative upper level PV advection as upper level ridge builds through
the central great lakes tomorrow. However, preference at this time
is for a low stratus deck to develop, and visibilities more in the
2-4 sm range, generally not low enough to include in zones. Will be
watching for signs of the mid level dry air arriving quicker than
expected, which would than lead to greater fog potential.

Prev discussion...

issued at 340 pm edt Tue sep 19 2017
discussion...

the open wave that broke off from the tail end of the northern
stream jet will continue to drift over the area this afternoon and
into the evening. A stalled boundary that was south of the michigan
border will drift into southern michigan this afternoon and evening.

There is already scattered convection forming along this boundary as
of 2:00pm. This along with a circulation currently southeast of lake
michigan will drift northeastward this afternoon and provide an
additional focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms to stick
around in the forecast into the evening and overnight. Highest
precipitation chances look to remain along and south of the i-69
corridor where the boundary will reside, but a few showers could
make it into the thumb and around saginaw bay as the circulation
slowly spins over southeast michigan. Trends show this wave weaken
over the next 24 hours as increasing 500mb heights begin to take
over the open wave and flip the upper pattern over the central and
eastern great lakes. This should help put a damper on any shower
activity remaining overnight by tomorrow morning.

Overnight low temperatures will remain in the 60s for many locations
with increased moisture and cloud cover. Clouds will begin to
scatter out through the late morning into the afternoon with weak
ridging and high pressure returning. On Wednesday, an upper trough
will lift into ontario and in response lift the boundary across
southern michigan to the north as a warm front. This will help to
maintain moist southerly flow at the surface in michigan.

Temperatures at 850mb and 950mb will be on the rise resulting in
highs climbing into the upper 70s and low 80s. Wednesday evening and
overnight we could see increasing rain chances in western and
northern michigan supported by a theta-e axis drifting east along
the eastern edge of the surface high pressure. Mid level lapse rates
being brought over the area with this instability axis would be
enough to support thunderstorm chances. However, it remains unclear
what the coverage of these showers and thunderstorms will be as the
move closer to eastern michigan. Will keep chances on the low end
for the for now.

An amplifying upper trough over the western CONUS will
only cause more amplification of the upper ridge over the eastern
conus through midweek. The temperatures at 850mb by Thursday will
increase into the upper teens and even warmer to above 20 degrees at
950mb. This will support temperatures in the mid to upper 80s for
Thursday, which is well above normal for this time of year.

A broad surface high pressure system and ridging aloft will help
support above normal temperatures and relatively dry conditions
through the extended period. 850 mb temperatures averaging 17 - 18
degrees c, southerly flow, and clear conditions will help push
daytime highs into the mid to upper-80s Friday and into the weekend.

For reference, record highs at detroit, flint, and saginaw range
between 89 - 92 degrees. Above normal temperatures with daytime
highs peaking in the 80s will continue through at least Tuesday,
before hurricane maria travels northeast into the northern atlantic,
turning upper-level flow more zonal. The next chance for possible
rain and thunderstorms will return Wednesday, as a cold front pushes
though michigan, which will bring more seasonal temperatures to the
region.

Marine...

surface winds will veer to the southeast tonight and Wednesday in
response to surface high pressure expanding into the eastern great
lakes. Surface high pressure will remain in place over the eastern
great lakes through the weekend, resulting in generally light south-
southeast winds.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Sf
update... ... .Sf
discussion... Aa am
marine... ... .Cb
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 20 mi38 min NE 4.1 G 4.1 69°F 1014.9 hPa (-0.3)
45147 - Lake St Clair 31 mi98 min ESE 5.8 G 5.8 69°F 69°F1014.2 hPa (-0.3)
AGCM4 39 mi50 min 1014.6 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 54 mi50 min 1014.6 hPa

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI4 mi43 minN 02.50 miFog/Mist68°F67°F97%1015.6 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI14 mi45 minN 02.00 miFog/Mist67°F66°F100%1014.3 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI14 mi45 minESE 33.00 miFog/Mist67°F66°F100%1014.1 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI20 mi45 minE 32.50 miFog/Mist68°F66°F96%1014.3 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI23 mi1.7 hrsE 38.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F68°F100%1014.8 hPa

Wind History from VLL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6N3NE4NE6NE5E5E4NE4CalmNE3E5E3SE3CalmE3E3E4NE5NE4E4E3CalmNE3NE4
1 day agoW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3N3E5N4NE5N5E4E5E5NE7E3NE5NE6NE5NE3NE5NE3NE7
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5SW7SW5S7S8S6SE5SE5S5S5SE3S4S3S4SW4SW3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.