Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pleasant Prairie, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 4:30PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 3:36 AM CST (09:36 UTC) Moonrise 1:31PMMoonset 11:33PM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 305 Am Cst Wed Nov 14 2018
Early this morning..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves around 1 foot.
Today..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots late in the morning, then veering east early in the afternoon veering southeast late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..Southeast wind 5 to 15 knots becoming 10 to 15 knots late in the evening, then veering south after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves around 1 foot building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Thursday..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon, then veering south late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Thursday night..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots late in the evening, then rising to 15 to 20 knots after midnight veering west with gusts to around 25 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ646 Expires:201811142200;;282065 FZUS53 KMKX 140905 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 305 AM CST Wed Nov 14 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-142200-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pleasant Prairie, WI
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location: 42.52, -87.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 140843
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
243 am cst Wed nov 14 2018

Short term
Today and tonight... Forecast confidence is medium.

Watching area of overcast middle level clouds moving southeast
toward the area from the northwest. Models are breaking it up
before it gets here after 10z or 11z this morning, though current
trends suggest that it would hold together. Some uncertainty here
with how this feature will evolve. For now, will leave forecast
mostly clear this morning in the north, but may have to add in
more clouds if this southeast movement continues.

Otherwise, high pressure over the region this morning will slide
east tonight. The high will bring another dry and cold day across
the area, with light winds becoming south to southeast this
afternoon. Highs should reach the middle 30s in most areas.

Winds should remain light and southerly tonight. There may be a
lake effect cloud band that moves northwest across lake michigan
and affects the lakeshore counties later tonight. Some model
disagreement here, so kept skies mostly clear for now. Lows should
be around 20 inland, with light winds and mostly clear skies.

Long term
Thursday and Friday... Forecast confidence high.

Thursday should be a quiet day across the region, as the area will
be situated between a southern stream system to our southeast and
a clipper to our northwest. Warm air advection will kick in later
in the day ahead of the northern system, which should be enough to
help boost temperatures to around 40. Any snow associated with the
southern system currently looks to remain across chicagoland and
points southeast.

The passage of the surface trough cold front associated with the
northern stream system will take place early Friday morning. There
doesn't look to be a significant temperature change with this
system, with temperatures on Friday expected to reach the upper
30s to around 40. Northwest winds will be a bit brisk Friday
morning, before relaxing during the second half of the day.

Friday night and Saturday... Forecast confidence medium to low.

A secondary frontal passage will take place late Friday night into
Saturday, and there continues to be above average uncertainty with
regard to precipitation potential placement with this system. Both
the GFS and ECMWF are in reasonably good agreement in bringing a
band of light to perhaps moderate snow across southern minnesota
into iowa, and eventually northern illinois, with just light
precipitation clipping far southern wisconsin. The 00z nam, on the
other hand, is considerably stronger and a bit further north with
this system, and it brings an area of light snow into much of
southern and central wisconsin by Saturday morning. Given the
variability that we've seen in the extended guidance over the
last few days, certainly can't rule out the NAM solution, but it
appears to be a distinct outlier at this time.

The weekend through mid week... Forecast confidence medium.

High pressure is expected to settle south across the plains
through the weekend, with split northwest flow aloft across the
area. This would be suggestive of a relatively cold and dry
period, with highs back to the low to mid 30s Saturday to Monday,
with teens and 20s for lows.

There are signs for warmer temperatures late in the extended, with
both the ec and GFS developing a large scale trough across the
west coast during the middle to end of next week. This may result
in temperatures getting closer to climatological averages for mid
to late november (mid 40s).

Aviation(09z TAF updates)
Light winds will become south to southeast this afternoon, then
light and southerly tonight. Overcast cloud deck with 6000 to 7000
foot ceilings may move southeast into northern parts of the area
after 10z or 11z this morning. Uncertain as to if this will hold
together, so kept skies mostly clear for now.

Mostly sunny skies are expected otherwise today. Skies should
remain mostly clear tonight. Some lake effect clouds may move
northwest into the lakeshore areas later tonight. Not enough
confidence to mention in forecast at this time.

Marine
Nearshore waters... Offshore winds this morning will weaken, with
south to southeast winds this afternoon. They will remain modest
tonight into Thursday.

Southwest winds then pick up Thursday night and become west
northwest on Friday, as a tight pressure gradient develops with
low pressure passing by to the north. Gusts to 25 knots are
possible during this time. A small craft advisory may be needed
for this period. High waves will remain over the open waters.

Open waters... Winds will gradually weaken over the northern half
of the lake today, then increase again tonight into Thursday.

Waves will build in the northern parts of the lake. The southern
half sees the increasing winds Thursday night into Friday. Gusts
to 25 knots are forecast over these areas during those times.

Waves should build on the eastern part of the lake Thursday night
and Friday.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Today tonight and aviation marine... Wood
Thursday through Tuesday... Boxell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45187 4 mi36 min 23°F 44°F2 ft
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 5 mi36 min WNW 5.1 G 8 18°F 1033.5 hPa (+1.0)
45186 11 mi36 min N 19 22°F 43°F2 ft
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 11 mi56 min NW 7 G 9.9 19°F
45174 28 mi26 min NW 14 G 19 24°F 47°F3 ft15°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 36 mi26 min NW 5.1 G 8 19°F
FSTI2 39 mi96 min NW 12 21°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 44 mi36 min NW 16 G 17 24°F 13°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 44 mi46 min NW 9.7 G 16 26°F 46°F3 ft1033.7 hPa (+1.0)17°F
CNII2 47 mi21 min NW 8 G 9.9 24°F 12°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI7 mi43 minW 310.00 miFair17°F10°F74%1034.6 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL7 mi41 minNW 310.00 miFair17°F8°F68%1035.1 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI17 mi43 minWNW 410.00 miFair17°F8°F68%1034.9 hPa

Wind History from ENW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9NW7NW7NW6NW9N10NW10NW9NW12NW8NW10W13NW9W4W4W3SW3W4W4NW4NW6W5NW6W3
1 day agoN6N5N4N6N3N8NW8NW9NW8NW7NW7NW8NW7NW10NW10NW11NW8NW7NW6NW7NW8NW11NW11
G18
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2 days agoS9SW8S8S9S8SW10SW9SW9SW9SW9W14
G20
W12SW7SW5SW4SW5SW5SW4W5W4W3NW7NW7W4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.