Saturday, August19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pleasant Prairie, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 7:47PM Saturday August 19, 2017 12:42 AM CDT (05:42 UTC) Moonrise 3:32AMMoonset 6:24PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 1105 Pm Cdt Fri Aug 18 2017
Rest of tonight..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy around midnight then becoming partly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots backing southwest early in the afternoon, then backing southeast late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday night..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots veering southwest in the late evening and overnight. Clear. Waves nearly calm.
Sunday..South wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ646 Expires:201708191000;;604559 FZUS53 KMKX 190405 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1105 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-191000-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pleasant Prairie, WI
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location: 42.52, -87.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 190441
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
1141 pm cdt Fri aug 18 2017

Update Needed to add fog to more of western CWA for the late
night as mid-clouds will affect mainly eastern half. Dewpoints
also staying a few degrees higher in the west and boundary layer
winds decreasing faster than originally expected. Fog likely to
become locally dense.

Aviation(06z tafs) Noted some lower CIGS have developed over
central wi. A mix of low clouds and fog may spread into western
cwa overnight as boundary layer mixing decreasing faster than
expected and mid-clouds look to affect mainly eastern cwa. Held
off on low CIGS with new TAF issuance but introduced some lower
vsbys in fog at kmsn.

Prev discussion (issued 926 pm cdt Fri aug 18 2017)
update... Despite compact, sharp mid-level short wave passing
through, limited moisture and instability preventing any
significant shower activity. Hence removed mention for the rest of
the night. Beefed up fog in the wisconsin river valley overnight
but due to uncertainty regarding late night cloud cover and
boundary layer mixing, wl hold off from introducing fog elsewhere.

Think some patchy shallow fog likely in low areas however.

Think there is a better chance for fog Saturday night with
clear to partly cloudy skies and light low level winds.

Marine... West to northwest winds 5 to 10 knots will persist
tonight as high pressure edges closer to lake michigan. As the
high pressure passes through the area on Saturday, light west
winds will turn onshore late in the morning and remain south to
southeast through the afternoon. Light winds will persist through
the rest of the weekend.

Prev discussion... (issued 631 pm cdt Fri aug 18 2017)
update... A few light showers have developed around kdll moving
east in response to mid-level short wave trof moving through
central wi. Likely these light showers will carry eastwarn next
several hours across northern cwa, and a few more may develop
farther south. Instability negligible so not expecting any
thunder. Some question as to amount of clearing expected later
tonight, but upstream convection may spread some high cloudiness
back in. Wi river valley likely to see some late night fog, but
boundary layer mixing should prevent thicker fog elsewhere.

Aviation(00z tafs)...VFR conditions expected for the bulk of this
forecast period. Expect lake breeze to develop late Saturday
morning into the afternoon due to light winds and increasing
temperature gradient along the lakeshore. Possible some light fog
may briefly affect some TAF sites late tonight. Better chance for
fog Saturday night into early Sunday.

Prev discussion... (issued 217 pm cdt Fri aug 18 2017)
short term...

tonight and Saturday... Forecast confidence is high:
a decent shortwave will move through this evening. Moisture looks
like it will be confined to a shallow layer centered around 10
kft though. Kept precip chances on the low end, as a few showers
or sprinkles are the best this wave will probably produce given
the limited moisture.

Should see clearing northwest to southeast later tonight into
Saturday morning as high pressure moves in. If clearing moves in
early enough, could see a little fog in the wisconsin river
valley.

It will be a great start to the weekend Saturday, with mostly
sunny skies and near normal temps.

Saturday night and Sunday... Forecast confidence is high.

The upper level flow becomes zonal, as a lead speed MAX in the
jet north of the dakotas pushes east, to just northwest of lake
superior. Weak upper level divergence and 700 mb upward motion
occurs across southern wisconsin. The 700 mb upward motion
increases Sunday afternoon. A 20 degree 850 celsius thermal ridge
pushes into southern wisconsin Sunday afternoon with a 25 knot
southwest 850 mb wind.

Surface high pressure will move across the great lakes with some
weak warm air advection beginning Sunday. Zero to 1 km mixed
layer CAPE rises to 1000 joules kg southeast, and near 2000
joules kg south central. However there is a fairly strong cap just
below 850 mb. Only the GFS brings light rain into south central
wisconsin. Prefer the dry ECMWF and NAM due to the cap.

Long term...

Monday through Tuesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

The zonal flow becomes more southwest Monday night and Tuesday
ahead of a shortwave across south central canada.

The shortwave will push across wisconsin Tuesday night.

A surface trough warm front will be near southern wisconsin later
Monday and Tuesday. The ECMWF is just a little slower in bringing
precipitation, holding off until Monday afternoon far southeast.

The GFS is faster with showers and thunderstorms through the day
Monday. Also the gfs ECMWF and NAM all have a large MCS in
eastern iowa Monday morning. Therefore clouds will likely affect
viewing the eclipse in southern wi on Monday. Stay tuned.

Conditions will remain favorable for showers and scattered storms
through Tuesday evening until a cold front drops south.

Wednesday through Friday... Forecast confidence is high.

A large mid upper level trough is expected over the eastern great
lakes Wednesday, that slowly reaches the northeast u.S. Thursday
night.

A brisk cool north wind is expected Wednesday, with high pressure
and cooler air Thursday. The high is expected to be over the
great lakes Friday.

Aviation(18z tafs)...

lingering MVFR locations are expected to improve toVFR by mid to
late afternoon.

A shortwave may bring a shower or a few sprinkles to the area late
afternoon into the evening.VFR ceilings are expected with this
system.

Could see a little fog in the wisconsin river valley later
tonight into Sat morning under light winds and clearing skies.

High pressure should then bring mostly sunny skies to the area
Saturday.

Marine...

quiet weather is expected this weekend under high pressure.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... 99
tonight Saturday and aviation marine... 99
Saturday night through Friday... 99


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 5 mi43 min NW 7 G 8.9 68°F 1011.9 hPa (+0.7)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 11 mi63 min NW 5.1 G 8 69°F
45174 28 mi23 min NW 14 G 16 72°F 73°F2 ft62°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 36 mi33 min WNW 5.1 G 6 68°F
FSTI2 39 mi103 min WNW 13 72°F
45013 40 mi64 min W 9.7 G 9.7 69°F 71°F1012 hPa
OKSI2 44 mi103 min N 1.9 74°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 44 mi23 min NNW 15 G 16 73°F 62°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 44 mi53 min NW 12 G 14 71°F 71°F1 ft1011.3 hPa (+0.3)
45177 45 mi163 min 76°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI7 mi50 minWNW 510.00 miFair63°F59°F87%1012.1 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL7 mi48 minVar 310.00 miFair66°F60°F81%1011.3 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI17 mi50 minWNW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy66°F60°F81%1012.3 hPa

Wind History from ENW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10W9W9W8W6W8W8W6NW9NW9W11
G18
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W10NW9W11W10W6W7W5W7NW6W5NW5
1 day ago----------SW10SW9S9SW10SW10SW10SW12
G21
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W11W13
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2 days agoCalmN3N3N3N3CalmNE3NE3E8E9E7SE9SE9E10E10E10E10E8SE6SE6E7SE6SE9S10
G23

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.