Thursday, January17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pleasant Prairie, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 4:46PM Thursday January 17, 2019 3:25 AM CST (09:25 UTC) Moonrise 2:32PMMoonset 4:24AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 305 Am Cst Thu Jan 17 2019
Early this morning..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Today..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots veering west late in the afternoon. Cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Cloudy through around midnight then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots veering north late in the morning, then becoming north 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Slight chance of snow in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
Friday night..Northeast wind 15 to 20 knots becoming 10 to 20 knots after midnight, then rising to 15 to 25 knots early in the morning. Snow likely through around midnight, then snow after midnight. Freezing spray after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 5 to 7 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ646 Expires:201901172200;;482059 FZUS53 KMKX 170905 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 305 AM CST Thu Jan 17 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-172200-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pleasant Prairie, WI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.52, -87.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kmkx 170503
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
1103 pm cst Wed jan 16 2019

Update No changes needed at this time.

Pc

Aviation(06z tafs) MVFR CIGS will be increasing later tonight
into Thursday. A low pressure tough will move through. There may
be some light snow showers here and there but not expecting any
impact or accumulation.

Pc

Prev discussion (issued 931 pm cst Wed jan 16 2019)
update... No changes of great consequence. Went with somewhat
cooler readings in the north where more breaks in clouds possible
there during the overnight hours.

Pc
marine... High pressure across the center of the lake tonight.

Some uptick in north winds Thursday night in wake of a trough.

Still looks like a stronger wind regime setting up for the weekend
as low pressure passes well south of state. There will be a tight
pressure gradient between this passing low and high pressure in
the northern plains.

Pc
prev discussion... (issued 549 pm cst Wed jan 16 2019)
update... No changes needed to forecast at this time.

Pc
aviation(00z tafs)...

expectVFR conditions until MVFR ceilings move in late tonight
through tomorrow from west to east. These lower ceilings are due
to a low pressure system passing to our south. Some light snow is
possible, but the main area of snow remains south of chicago. No
accumulations are expected for our area.

Rar
prev discussion... (issued 334 pm cst Wed jan 16 2019)
discussion...

tonight through Thursday night... Forecast confidence is medium.

Lake effect clouds may hang on into tonight across areas near lake
michigan, with low level northeast flow becoming east with
favorable delta t values. Otherwise, expect mainly low clouds to
gradually push east northeast into the area this evening,
lingering overnight into Thursday. Went with lows in the middle
to upper teens north, to the lower 20s south.

Models continue to show a 500 mb vorticity maximum moving east
southeast through the area on Thursday. Cold front also moves
southeast through the region later Thursday into Thursday evening.

Forecast soundings are showing some deep saturation at times
later tonight into Thursday. There is some dry air between the
middle and low levels which will need to be overcome. Models still
bring very light QPF across parts of the area later tonight and
Thursday.

Main upward vertical motion and area of light snow will remain to
the south of the area during this time. Not a lot of confidence
that we will see much if any light snow, given the rather weak to
modest upward vertical motion and short duration of deep
saturation. May end up being flurries. For now, will continue to
mention just low pops for light snow for later tonight into
Thursday. No accumulations are expected. Highs should be in the
lower 30s.

Should see partial clearing, at least, for Thursday night, with
drier and slightly colder air moving into the area. Lows should be
in the middle to upper teens in most areas.

Friday through Saturday night... Forecast confidence is medium.

We continue to fine tune snowfall amounts, but no major model
swings are noted today.

A mid level short wave low pressure system associated with a
major storm system hitting the pacific northwest tonight, will
dive into the central and southern plains by Friday night. This
wave will be broadly connected to a large trough over canada, but
not really phase until the southern system gets well south and
east of the midwest. For those that track surface lows, this one
is still expected to move from ok, thru ar to the mid atlantic.

That is well south of a storm track that normally brings us big
snowfall. But, it is that broad troughing aloft that will allow
the moisture to spread farther north than is typical.

The models have been keying on some h8-h7 frontogenesis well north
of the surface low over ia SRN mn into SRN wi and il later Friday
afternoon into Friday night. This would be the period when we
could see the majority of the snow accumulation awake from lake
michigan. The highest amounts would be limited to the wi il
border, less north of milwaukee and madison. If that frontogenesis
shifts a bit farther south, we could see a significant drop in
snow amounts to the south.

The other main concern will be a favorable wind fetch and delta t
over the lake bringing higher snowfall amounts across the far
southeast counties, especially milwaukee racine kenosha, later
Friday night into Saturday night. Delta TS will be approaching 20,
which is impressive. This will need to be watched closely as a
stationary snowband would be very productive in this setup.

Sunday... Forecast confidence is high.

High pressure and north winds will bring some of our coldest air
of the season, but certainly not unusual for mid january. Lows
Sunday morning and Monday morning will drop into the single
digits, maybe a few degrees below zero. We'll recover to around
10 above Sunday afternoon.

Monday and Tuesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

The ECMWF and the GFS continue to show another system moving by to
our south during this period. It's a bit farther south than the
past few storms, so this will bring us another chance for some
snow early next week.

Wednesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

We should dry out at mid week, if things progress as planned.

Aviation(21z TAF updates)...

lake effect clouds with ceilings around 3000 feet should linger at
milwaukee and kenosha into this evening. Gusty north to northeast
winds near the lakeshore should weaken by sunset.

Clouds with mainlyVFR ceilings should move east northeast into
the area this evening, lowering to 1500 to 2500 feet later tonight
into Thursday morning. They should remain around 1500 feet for the
rest of Thursday. Winds will be rather light tonight into
Thursday, before a cold front moves through the area later
Thursday into Thursday evening. Winds should then become
northwest.

Any light snow chances later tonight into Thursday will be rather
low, with the main area remaining to the south of the area. It
could end up being mainly flurries. No accumulations are
expected.

Marine...

nearshore waters...

gusty north to northeast winds and waves of 3 to 4 feet will
subside by early this evening. Winds will become southeast tonight
into Thursday morning, weakening Thursday afternoon. Northwest
winds will increase after the cold front moves through Thursday
night, then weaken on Friday.

Northeast winds will become gusty Friday night into Saturday,
becoming north Saturday night into Sunday. Frequent gusts to 25
knots are likely during this time. Waves of 3 to 5 feet are
possible Friday night into Saturday, before slowly subsiding. A
small craft advisory may be needed for Friday night into Sunday.

Open waters...

gusty northeast winds are expected Friday night into Saturday,
becoming north Saturday night into Sunday. Frequent gusts to 30
knots are likely during this period. Waves will build during this
time as well. As of now, it appears that gusts will remain below
gale force. Freezing spray is expected Friday into the weekend as
well.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Tonight Thursday and aviation marine... Wood
Thursday night through Wednesday... Davis


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 5 mi86 min ESE 9.9 G 12 30°F 1023.4 hPa (-1.3)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 11 mi46 min E 9.9 G 13 30°F
FSTI2 39 mi146 min E 11 30°F
CNII2 47 mi26 min E 8 G 8.9 30°F 23°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
-12
PM
-12
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
Last
24hr
SW5
W5
G10
W3
G8
NW7
G14
NW10
G16
N9
G14
NW7
G14
N8
G12
NW7
G11
NW5
G8
NE11
G14
NE11
G15
NE10
G13
NE7
G11
NE9
G12
NE9
G13
NE10
NE9
G12
NE7
G11
E9
E7
NE8
1 day
ago
SW4
G9
SW6
G11
SW7
G11
SW7
G10
SW6
G11
SW6
G10
SW9
S7
G10
S8
G11
SW6
G11
SW10
G16
SW7
G16
SW10
G16
SW11
G15
SW9
G18
SW8
G13
SW9
G14
SW9
G16
SW6
G11
SW6
G11
SW6
G10
SW5
G8
SW5
G8
2 days
ago
W4
G8
W5
G9
NW3
W4
G11
W4
G7
SW5
G8
SW4
SW4
G8
SW5
G10
SW5
G8
SW6
G12
SW6
G12
SW5
G9
SW9
G12
SW9
G12
SW7
G11
SW8
G12
W7
G12
W7
SW8
G13
SW5
G11
SW6
G10

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI7 mi33 minNE 310.00 miOvercast27°F21°F81%1023.5 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL7 mi31 minE 510.00 miOvercast29°F19°F69%1023.6 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI17 mi33 minESE 510.00 miPartly Cloudy29°F19°F66%1024.1 hPa

Wind History from ENW (wind in knots)
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
Last 24hrN10
G19
NW10N5N7NW5N5N9N9NE11N9NE8NE8E9E7E6E5E6E8E7E6E5NE3NE4NE3
1 day agoW9W8W8W8W8SW7SW8SW10SW14SW14SW17SW14
G24
SW14
G22
SW14
G25
SW16
G26
W14
G25
W14
G26
W12W11
G23
W11W10W11W10NW9
2 days agoW6W7W5W4W6W6W8SW8SW6SW10SW11W13SW10W8W9W10W9SW9W13W8W9W9W8W8

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (4,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.