Sunrise 6:07 AM   Sunset 7:37 PM Moonrise 12:26 PM   Moonset 3:17 AM

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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 705 Am Cdt Mon Apr 15 2024
Today - North wind 5 to 10 knots veering northeast late in the morning, then veering east early in the afternoon rising to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot. Tonight - Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots after midnight, then veering east early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Tuesday - East wind 10 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then becoming 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots late in the afternoon. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 4 to 6 feet in the afternoon. A small craft advisory may be needed. Tuesday night - East wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots becoming southeast up to 30 knots late in the evening, then easing to 15 to 25 knots after midnight becoming southeast 15 to 25 knots early in the morning. Rain showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 5 to 7 feet building to 6 to 8 feet in the late evening and early morning, then subsiding to 5 to 7 feet early in the morning.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 160845 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 345 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Approaching Wind Advisory criteria this afternoon for strong east to southeast winds

- Rounds of showers and storms will likely (60-85%) bring over an inch of rain this afternoon through Wednesday afternoon with pockets to around 2 inches possible especially over south central WI.

- There is a conditional severe threat for far south central WI this afternoon and evening.

SHORT TERM
Issued 345 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Today through Wednesday night:

Higher clouds will gradually push in this morning as the surface low slides east through the Central Plains. Overall the day will be relatively warm and breezy. 925mb temperatures will be warm enough to bring areas near the WI/IL border to near 70 degrees while much of the rest of the area should (60-70%) reach the low to mid 60s outside of areas near the lake where the lake will keep them cooler given the breezy easterly flow off the lake. As for winds the WAA just off the deck will inhibit crazy mixing heights but you will not have to mix very high to tap into 35-40kt winds aloft right around 925mb. We did consider a Wind Advisory for parts of the area today but these higher end winds seem fairly limited in time and still remain fairly borderline.

Moving later into the afternoon dry conditions ahead of the system any showers that pop up out ahead of the main forcing (as seen in a few CAMs) may (50-60%) not reach the ground. However once the main forcing aloft with the upper low pushes in we will see the rain and storm potential rapidly increase. This will be coincident with the increasing LLJ. Overall the initial wave of precip will likely occur in a 3-4 hr window for a given location between 5pm and midnight. As storms slide east during the evening gradual weakening will be expected (90%). We still see some potential (30-40%) for a few strong to severe storms in the southwest portions of the CWA primarily.

Our severe potential is fairly conditional on just how far north the warm front gets and how much instability there will be. Currently it appears the warm front may (60%) just sneak north enough to bring severe potential to the southwest part of the CWA with upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Given the 0-6km shear being upwards of 50-60 kts the severe potential is certainly there. The concern comes in with how CAMs are developing storms, storm mode, and precip/storms potential ahead of the main convection. All of this adds uncertainty but if we get a well formed line of storms pushing through damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes could be a concern, while if it is more cellular hail becomes the primary concern. Either way potential remains fairly limited overall given the conditions needed for stronger storms but over the next 6-12 hours we will have a better idea of exactly what this is going to look like. Areas further east are not as likely (20-30%) to see the warm front push far enough north, due in part to the lake. Thus severe potential is limited to the southwest with maybe a stronger elevated storm sneaking further north.

The main period of convection should end by around midnight with a period of dry conditions likely (60-70%) through the late night period as the area sits in the dry slot. However, by the early morning hours around daybreak most of the CAMs suggest a few more storms could develop across the CWA associated with the upper low/surface low and perhaps forming off the occluded front. While severe storms are not expected (10-20%) from this the shear may potentially large enough to cause a bit of organization to these storms to be a bit stronger than expected.
Otherwise the rest of the day will feature scattered to isolated showers associated with the upper low primarily. By the evening the system will likely (80%) have shifted far enough east to bring back drier conditions to the region.

I should additional mention the hydro concerns with this event as we could see widespread precip amounts of 0.75-1.25 inches with some chances (30-40%) for some spots to the west to see upwards of 2 inches or rain. This will be on the backs of transient PWATs of 1.25-1.5 inches. A few rivers in the western part of the CWA will likely (60-70%) be impacted and that will be the main thing to monitor regarding impacts from rain amounts. Rates will be the secondary thing to watch with this system but overall flash flooding is not expected at this time.

Kuroski

LONG TERM
Issued 345 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Thursday through Monday:

A shortwave trough digging through the Central Plains from NE to IL Wednesday night into Thursday will be the focus for our next chance of rain across southern WI. A narrow area of 600-700mb frontogenesis is expected to slide across southern WI Thursday afternoon. This should be enough to saturate the mid levels for a few hours, and light rain is likely (60-70%) for areas along and west of a Wisconsin Dells-Madison-Janesville line. Models have been fairly consistent with this signal of light QPF, and precip amounts should be less than 0.10 inch.

We will enter into a lengthy period of fairly dry northwest flow from Friday through Thursday. Temperatures will be at or below normal for most of the period, with normal highs in the upper 50s to around 60 for mid to late April. Lows will be in the 30s Friday night and through Sunday night. Saturday night looks the coldest with below freezing temps possible.

A shortwave trough crossing the Central Plains Monday and Monday night will help us warm briefly. There is a chance of rain with this feature, although there are model differences in the track of this associated low and therefore the precip. It looks like the pattern will change back to warm and unsettled beyond Day 7.

Cronce

AVIATION
Issued 345 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

VFR TAFs expected through at least the early afternoon though winds will pick up by the late afternoon with east to southeast winds gusting as high as 40 knots, especially toward central Wisconsin (this will continue into the evening ahead of storms).
By the late afternoon and early evening showers and storms will start to push in from the west that will be coincident with some MVFR CIGS and likely (60-70%) some reduced VSBYS with heavier rain (heavy rain more likely further west). By the evening hours we should (70%) see most of the rain/storms push out with a period of dry condition, though MVFR CIGS will continue. Overnight will remain fairly quiet with additional storm development probably (70%) around daybreak Wednesday morning with spotty showers thereafter. Overnight into Wednesday morning may (40%) feature CIGS falling to IFR for a period though CIGS should be expected to improve from the west during day Wednesday as the system gradually pushes out.

Kuroski

MARINE
Issued 345 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Easterly winds will continue across the lake this morning as low pressure continues northeast towards the Great Lakes region.
Winds today will remain easterly, but will begin to accelerate throughout the day as the low approaches, leading to the likelihood of gales across much of the lake by this evening.
As such, we have upgraded the Gale Watch to a Gale Warning that is in effect from this evening through Wednesday evening for various parts of the lake. In addition we issued a Small Craft leading into the Gale Warning for high waves and strong easterly winds from 25 to 30 kts. Winds across much of the lake will decelerate and shift southerly to southwesterly Wednesday as the low moves north across central Wisconsin, but easterly gales are still possible over the far northern portion through Wednesday evening before also turning westerly and decelerating.
Westerly winds will then continue Thursday morning before becoming southwesterly by Thursday afternoon for the entire lake as the low departs the area. A Small Craft will likely be needed for parts of the nearshore following the end of the Gale Warning for a least a short period.

Kuroski

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...10 AM Tuesday to 6 PM Tuesday.

Gale Warning...LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ643- LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872...6 PM Tuesday to 7 AM Wednesday.

Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ673-LMZ675- LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...6 PM Tuesday to 1 AM Wednesday.

Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362...6 PM Tuesday to 7 PM Wednesday.

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