Wednesday, November22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Twin Lakes, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 4:26PM Wednesday November 22, 2017 2:29 PM CST (20:29 UTC) Moonrise 11:13AMMoonset 8:57PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 105 Pm Cst Wed Nov 22 2017
Rest of today..West wind 5 to 10 knots backing southwest late in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots veering west early in the afternoon, then easing to 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny in the morning then clearing. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday night..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots late in the evening, then becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots after midnight rising to 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ646 Expires:201711222300;;805609 FZUS53 KMKX 221906 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 105 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-222300-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Twin Lakes, WI
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location: 42.52, -88.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 221751
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
1151 am cst Wed nov 22 2017

Update
No changes made with this update.

Aviation(18z tafs)
Vfr fcst into this evng. Winds will gradually shift to the SW this
aftn in advance of a weak storm system that will pass across N wi
tonight. There is a bit of model spread with respect to forecast
precipitation placement overnight. Even though S wi has similar
forcing to locations farther n, the lower portion of the column
never really saturates therefore not confident of any substantial
precip reaching the ground. Cntrl and E cntrl wi have the best
chance for seeing light snow where a dusting is possible ... But
not likely. If that were to occur, brief MVFR CIGS vsbys could be
possible. There could certainly be flurries from this evng into
the early mrng hrs with the same cntrl wi areas having the best
chance of seeing a few flakes. The system pushes E by thanksgiving
mrng. Winds turn wrly drng the mrng as the assocd cold front
approaches but never really ever pushes through the area,
stalling across cntrl wi. The winds eventually turn back to the sw
by evng.VFR conditions are expected for tomorrow.

Stratus stratocu could linger across S wi into the mrng hrs but
not confident enough to include in the fcst yet.

Prev discussion (issued 948 am cst Wed nov 22 2017)
update...

fcst is in good shape this mrng. No significant changes were made.

High pressure will dominate the wx today with clear skies. Winds
will gradually shift to SW in advance of a weak clipper system that
will pass across N wi tonight with clouds increasing this aftn.

Marine...

high pressure in control today producing clear skies and a light nw
breeze this mrng becoming SW this aftn. Winds will pick up a bit
overnight as a weak storm system passes across N wi but should
diminish again through thanksgiving remaining offshore through
Thursday night.

Prev discussion... (issued 539 am cst Wed nov 22 2017)
update... The forecast is on track for today and tonight.

Aviation(12z tafs)...

mainlyVFR conditions today and tonight. Flurries and very light
snow may occur for a few hours tnt, with the better chances
toward central wi. Thus, any restrictions in vsbys or possible
MVFR CIGS would occur toward central wi and would likely be brief.

Prev discussion... (issued 315 am cst Wed nov 22 2017)
short term...

today and tonight... Forecast confidence is medium.

A ridge of high pressure will shift ewd across SRN wi today, with
swly winds and weak warm advection beginning in the afternoon.

Full sunshine and the weak WAA should be able to boost temps into
the lower to middle 30s, before the high clouds arrive for late
afternoon.

A shortwave trough within nwly flow aloft will then move across
srn wi tnt. The associated low to mid level warm advection and pva
will affect the region. Forecast soundings show the low levels of
the atmosphere remaining fairly dry in SRN wi, with better
chances of saturation to the north. Thus, introduced slight
chances for light snow toward central wi, with sct flurries
elsewhere from this evening into the early morning hours. A
dusting of snow could occur toward central wi, including fond du
lac and sheboygan.

Thanksgiving day through Friday night... Forecast confidence is
medium.

Models are in decent agreement with northwest flow at 500 mb on
thanksgiving day becoming more zonal by Friday morning. Quiet
weather is expected thanksgiving day, with temperatures near
seasonal normals. Warm air advection Thursday night into Friday on
increasing southwest winds should bring in warmer temperatures.

Highs should reach into the lower to middle 50s Friday, perhaps a
few degrees warmer.

Models then bring a cold front through the area later Friday into
Friday evening. There is modest low level frontogenesis response
during this time, along with fairly strong differential cyclonic
vorticity advection with a passing 500 mb shortwave trough.

Area forecast soundings are showing a good amount of air column
saturation for a brief period either late Friday or Friday
evening. The best is in the north and east portions of the area,
though the NAM is holding onto this saturation several hours
longer than the gfs.

For now, will continue with mainly low end pops, until more
confidence can be gained with moisture profiles between the
models. It will be warm enough for all rain during this period.

Long term...

Saturday through Tuesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Models in this period are showing a broad 500 mb ridge moving east
across the region Saturday into Monday, before sliding off to the
east by Tuesday. Brisk northwest winds Saturday should limit
temperatures to the upper 30s to lower 40s. High pressure should
then slide southeast from the northern plains into the middle
mississippi river valley Saturday night into Sunday. Quiet weather
should continue Saturday into Sunday. Temperatures should remain a
little below seasonal normals Saturday night into Sunday.

Fairly strong warm air advection should then move into the region
late Sunday into Tuesday. This should bring a warming trend into
the region, with highs reaching back into the 40s, perhaps a bit
warmer.

There are model differences with timing and placement of the low
track undergoing cyclogenesis for later Tuesday and beyond.

Gfs ECMWF are similar in bringing the deepening low northeast
across wisconsin either Tuesday or Tuesday night, with a strong
cold front moving east through the region. The canadian model does
not show much cyclogenesis with this low, and is quicker to move
it out of the region. For now, will use consensus blended pops and
temperatures for Tuesday.

Aviation(09z tafs)...

mainlyVFR conditions today and tonight. Flurries and very light
snow may occur for a few hours tnt, with the better chances
toward central wi. Thus, any restrictions in vsbys or possible
MVFR CIGS would occur toward central wi and would likely be brief.

Marine...

light to moderate offshore flow and low wave heights for today
and thu.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... 99
today tonight and aviation marine... 99
Thursday through Tuesday... 99


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 24 mi29 min SW 2.9 G 9.9 33°F 1024.7 hPa (-2.7)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 26 mi49 min WSW 8 G 11 32°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 41 mi49 min WSW 8.9 G 11 32°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Last
24hr
W6
G11
W7
G14
NW13
G20
NW12
G17
NW7
G11
W9
G13
NW10
G17
NW11
G17
NW9
G16
NW10
G15
W7
G13
NW6
G10
W6
G11
W7
G10
W8
NW7
G10
W5
G8
W7
G10
W7
G10
W6
G10
W4
G9
NW2
G5
SW4
G11
W4
G9
1 day
ago
S17
G23
S15
G23
S14
G22
S14
G23
S17
G27
S18
G26
S16
G22
S16
G29
S18
G25
S21
G27
S17
G23
S15
G21
S13
G23
S14
G20
S15
G21
SW13
G19
SW10
G17
SW11
G15
SW10
G16
SW10
G16
SW9
G15
W8
G15
W8
G12
W7
G11
2 days
ago
SW7
G15
W9
G13
W8
G15
SW8
G13
SW7
G10
SW6
G11
SW8
G11
SW4
G7
SW8
G13
SW9
G13
SW7
G12
SW7
G10
SW10
G13
SW9
G12
S9
G12
S10
G15
S12
G18
S11
G17
S13
G19
S12
G18
S17
G23
S13
G19
S17
G22
S19
G25

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI12 mi59 minWSW 710.00 miFair35°F20°F56%1024.7 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI18 mi36 minWSW 810.00 miFair33°F15°F48%1025.8 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL22 mi94 minSW 810.00 miFair32°F16°F52%1027.1 hPa

Wind History from BUU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW14
G22
NW16
G20
NW8
G15
NW9NW6NW6NW9NW9NW4NW4NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW4W3NW5CalmCalmW5W6SW8W5
1 day agoSW17
G23
S19
G23
S19
G25
SW20SW21
G26
SW20
G28
SW20
G23
SW20
G26
SW16
G21
SW19
G25
SW14
G17
SW14SW9SW8SW7SW9SW11W10
G14
W11
G17
W14
G22
W16
G22
NW18
G22
NW18
G23
NW17
G23
2 days agoW11
G14
W7SW4SW4SW7SW7SW8SW8SW11SW10SW5SW7S9S9SW8S9S9SW10SW13SW13SW15
G21
S14S15
G23
SW18
G28

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.