Wednesday, June20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Twin Lakes, WI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:14AMSunset 8:34PM Wednesday June 20, 2018 8:38 AM CDT (13:38 UTC) Moonrise 1:07PMMoonset 1:11AM Illumination 46% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 706 Am Cdt Wed Jun 20 2018
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 am cdt this morning...
Today..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots late in the morning, then becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Areas of dense fog in the morning. Slight chance of showers until late afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy through around midnight then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday night..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots veering east with gusts to around 20 knots after midnight, then becoming east 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Slight chance of showers through around midnight. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Chance of showers after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
LMZ646 Expires:201806201600;;827811 FZUS53 KMKX 201206 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 706 AM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-201600-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Twin Lakes, WI
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location: 42.52, -88.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 201128
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
628 am cdt Wed jun 20 2018

Update
Upstream precipitation, forced by the front that has been across
the region for the last few days and perhaps some subtle
differential divergence, has pushed further east than anticipated.

This precip may continue to push into southern wisconsin as the
aforementioned upstream forcing is also in place across the cwa.

However, hrrr continues to indicate a diminishing trend in this
precip moves to the east, so my confidence in the precip impacting
the CWA is not particularly high. Nonetheless, I will be adjusting
pops in our west upward to account for the approaching
precipitation.

Aviation(12z tafs)
Cigs have generally dropped to lifr across much of southeastern
wisconsin, and high res guidance is indicating that the lifr cigs
will persist for the next few hours. Beyond that, there is a
strong signal that CIGS will gradually improve through the
morning, eventually reachingVFR by mid afternoon.

Otherwise, the focus of the forecast is on precipitation
potential. High res guidance has persistently indicated precip
across NE ia SE mn will fall apart before reaching southern wi.

However, the precip has already reached farther east than
previously indicated, so confidence in the high res solution is
not high. Therefore, precip chances may need to be adjusted
upward, especially in the west.

Prev discussion (issued 338 am cdt Wed jun 20 2018)
short term...

today and tonight... Forecast confidence is medium...

the stalled front that brought the dreary weather yesterday
remains in place has resulted in blossoming light showers across
much of southern wisconsin. These showers, which appear to have
little support other than the front, are not being handled well
by the high res guidance. Given that the front is not going
anywhere this forecast period, I have a hard time buying the dry
forecast advertised by most of the meso models. Therefore, I have
included slight chance pops through 18z. After 18z, the low
levels should begin to dry out somewhat and my confidence in
precip decreases to the point where a dry forecast seemed
appropriate. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies and continue easterly
flow should again result in cool temperatures.

Long term...

Thursday through Friday... Forecast confidence is medium.

A closed upper low will track through iowa on Thursday, northern
missouri Thursday night, and central illinois on Friday. Southern
wi will be on the northern fringe of the showers and thunderstorms
associated with this system. There is minimal instability in this
moist atmosphere, so expect periods of rain and isolated thunder.

We are not expecting heavy rain due to our distance from the main
forcing of the low pressure system.

Expect clouds and cool temperatures to stick around through the
end of the week. Persistent easterly winds will keep lakeshore
areas cooler than inland, although clouds will cause the whole
area to have below normal temperatures.

Saturday through Sunday... Forecast confidence is medium.

The upper low will weaken as it slides through the ohio river
valley over the weekend. Southern wi will transition from cyclonic
flow to general high pressure with very weak flow and weak
instability. We will still be in a moist air mass, so there is
still a small chance for random showers and maybe a rumble of
thunder. Intermittent sunshine will warm us up into the upper
70s.

Monday and beyond... Forecast confidence is medium.

The next low pressure system will approach wi from the northern
plains early next week and bring showers and thunderstorms back
into southern wi by Tuesday morning. The ECMWF and GFS agree that
it will slide across wi and bring thunderstorm chances through wed
night.

Aviation(09z tafs)...

we'll remain socked in beneath stratus all morning and into the
afternoon, with CIGS gradually increasing though the day. High res
forecast guidance is in good agreement, showing CIGS in the lifr
to ifr range through the early morning hours. The past few hours
of observations show CIGS across the area in ifr more often than
lifr, so have kept CIGS at all TAF sites above 500 ft. However, i
do expect CIGS to continue to sporadically jump between lifr and
MVFR. By mid morning, all sites should begin to improve, reaching
vfr by the late afternoon. Otherwise, isolated light showers will
likely continue though at least mid morning.

Marine...

showers, drizzle, and fog will continue through much of the
morning. Visibilites will likely remain below 1 mile through at
least mid morning, so the marine dense fog advisory will remain
in effect through 15z.

The stagnant weather pattern will keep winds and waves below sca
criteria through the weekend, though there is a period of time on
Friday morning where east winds may gust to 20 knots, pushing wave
heights just below 4ft.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Dense fog advisory until 10 am cdt this morning for lmz645-646.

Update... Bsh
today tonight and aviation marine... Bsh
Thursday through Tuesday... Cronce


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 24 mi38 min N 8.9 G 12 60°F 1012.9 hPa (+1.0)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 26 mi58 min N 8 G 9.9 61°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 41 mi48 min N 6 G 8 55°F
45013 46 mi61 min N 7.8 G 9.7 57°F 54°F1 ft1012.7 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI12 mi43 minENE 43.00 miFog/Mist60°F58°F95%1012.9 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI18 mi45 minNNE 610.00 miOvercast63°F60°F90%1012.6 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL22 mi43 minNNE 55.00 miFog/Mist62°F60°F93%1011.6 hPa

Wind History from BUU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7NE5E3NE6NE8E5E8NE7NE4E4NE6NE5NE6
G15
NE7NE3NE4N3N3N3NE4N5CalmNE5NE5
1 day agoW8
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G34
E4CalmE7NE5CalmN4NE5CalmNE3E8
G16
NE4N7E4NE4CalmE3
2 days agoSW8SW9S9SW6S7SW8S12SW11
G15
S10
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SW9S10
G16
S6S4S5S8S6S6SW7SW9
G14
SW7SW6SW9SW9W10
G15

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.